Slide 1

Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences Hard Choices Ahead Norfolk Agricultural Club 4th November 2003 Slide 2 Future Global Warming Rates Slide 3 IRisks to Unique and Threatened Systems IIRisks from Extreme Climatic Events IIIDistribution of Impacts IVAggregate Impacts VRisks from Future Large Scale Discontinuities Reasons for Concern I II III IV V Range of predicted temperatures Risks to Many Risks to Some Large Increase Increase Negative for most Regions Negative for some Regions Some positive/ some negative Most people adversely affected Net Negative for all markets most Very Low Risk Higher Risk Current temperature Average 1950 - 1970 Historic Average oCoC Slide 4 Local impacts Norfolk in that part of the UK which is likely to be most impacted. Re-distribution of rainfall; lower summer rainfall. Maybe more flooding in winter Landscape/agriculture changes Regionally/Globally More severe weather droughts; floods; crop failures etc. Slide 5 Government Response Energy White Paper aspiration for 60% cut in CO 2 emissions by 2050 Will require unprecedented partnership activity in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s ( but no indication of how this will be undertaken) There will be much more local generation, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid. - Energy White Paper: February 2003 Slide 6 The CRed ambition To engage, enthuse and empower a large, diverse community to debate, plan and execute a programme to reduce carbon emissions by up to 60% by 2025 Can a local community take on the responsibility for starting to confront the challenge of climate change and make a difference? Or will it continue to be - someone/somewhere else? Can we encourage politicians/officials to be bolder on our behalf? exemplar for the world Slide 7 The CRed Community Participatory/inclusive Partnerships Modes of participation (targets/methods) Matrix of modes of participation = representative of real-world complexity Spark imaginations Centred on Norwich/Norfolk, but links across the region, country, the world. Slide 8 How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. 4 million each year for Norfolk On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. The Right Language Slide 9 Some facts: A mobile phone charger left on even when not charging up to 25 kg CO 2 a year Standby on television > 60 kg per year Filling up with petrol (~30 for a full tank) --------- 90 kg of CO 2 (5% of one balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) emits as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour 1.6 miles Slide 10 Slide 11 How to use your to beat global warming University aims to shame ministers into tougher action Ian Sample, science correspondent - Wednesday August 27, 2003 A group of scientists in East Anglia has launched an ambitious campaign to tackle the threat of global warming in an effort to shame ministers into stronger action on climate change. The task they have set themselves is formidable: to slash the region's emissions of carbon dioxide in half the time the government believes is possible. At first glance, the project, known as Cred, for carbon reduction, might easily be dismissed as well-meaning nonsense. But the team behind it, Keith Tovey and his colleagues at the University of East Anglia, belong to the most prestigious environmental science department in the country. "If anyone is going to do this, they will," said Dennis Thouless whose Norwich-based company, Global Commodities, collects used cooking oil from local businesses and turns it into fuel. The Cred project was set up in response to the government's white paper on energy, published in February. "The government pledged that they would be pushing to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 60% by the year 2050," Dr Tovey said. "It looked impressive and sounded good, but didn't give any clues on how to do it. To put it bluntly, there were too many agendas being thrown around." The result was a statement of high intention that lacked any practical guidance. Growing frustration at the government's dithering has spurred Dr Tovey's team into action. They have taken the government's stated target of 60% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, which according to the royal commission on environmental pollution is vital to avoid the adverse effects of climate change, and pledged that East Anglia would meet it in half the time. "If we can show that the people here can achieve this target by 2025, we can turn around and say to everybody else, 'What's your excuse?'" Dr Tovey said. Enthusiasm for the project has snowballed. Local businesses have submitted themselves to scrutiny, to see how much electricity they are wasting. School children have had crash courses in saving energy. Night classes have been set up to teach people the fine art of making solar cells that, strapped to their roofs, will give hot water. Others have gone one step further and installed silicon-based panels on their roofs that convert sunlight into electricity. Dr Tovey is talking to the Diocese of Norwich to try to get the Anglican church on board. "East Anglia has more than 600 churches," he said. "Because churches are all built running east to west, it means they've got a huge area of roof that's facing south, so they're perfect for catching the sun." "It would be very hard not to agree with the aims of the Cred project," said the Rev Jan MacFarlane, the Bishop of Norwich's chaplain. "And if there's a possibility of generating some income, why not?" But Dr Tovey knows that slashing carbon dioxide in East Anglia will have little impact on global climate change. The people of East Anglia produce 6.5m tonnes of carbon dioxide a year, against the 500m tonnes produced by the UK as a whole. "To make a real difference, the US will have to be doing this, but that will happen when they realise there is money to be made doing this." Word of the project is spreading beyond East Anglia. The Bishop of Hereford has expressed an interest. A delegation from Japan which visited the Cred team may set up a similar project. The biggest threat to success now, the scientists believe, is that people's enthusiasm dries up as the novelty wears off. Dr Tovey said: "There's always a chance we will fail. But if we fail, it can't be said we haven't tried." Cred Enthusiasm for the project has snowballed. Local businesses have submitted themselves to scrutiny, to see how much electricity they are wasting. School children have had crash courses in saving energy. Night classes have been set up to teach people the fine art of making solar cells that, strapped to their roofs, will give hot water. Others have gone one step further and installed silicon-based panels on their roofs that convert sunlight into electricity. Dr Tovey is talking to the Diocese of Norwich to try to get the Anglican church on board. "East Anglia has more than 600 churches," he said. "Because churches are all built running east to west, it means they've got a huge area of roof that's facing south, so they're perfect for catching the sun." "It would be very hard not to agree with the aims of the Cred project," said the Rev Jan MacFarlane, the Bishop of Norwich's chaplain. "And if there's a possibility of generating some income, why not?" Slide 12 Ida-Anglia nitab maailmale eeskuju ssihappegaasierituse piiramisel 27/08/03 07:49:56 Arni Alandi Rhm Suurbritannia Ida-Anglia teadlasi algatas suurejoonelise kampaania tulemaks toime leilmse kliimasoojenemise ohuga ning hbistamaks ministreid, kes kliimamuutuse rahoidmiseks liiga vhe ette on vtnud. Teadlased on endale pstitanud aukartustratava lesande: vhendada piirkonna ssihappegaasi hkupaiskamist poole lhema aja jooksul valitsuse mratud graafikust. Esmapilgul vib Credi nime kandev projekt tunduda mittemidagitleva mttetusena. hendkuningriigi teadlased usuvad, et nii see siiski pole, sest projekti taga seisavad vga vrikad ja tunnustatud teadlased. Ida-Anglia likooli keskkonnateaduste ppetooli peetakse parimaks omataoliseks kogu Suurbritannias. Kateedrit juhivad Keith Tovey ja tema kolleegid. Kui keegi nii julge lubaduse titmisega hakkama saab, siis just Tovey rhm on Dennis Thouless, firma Global Commodities juht, kindel. Thoulessi firma kogub kohalikelt ettevtteilt kasutatud toiduli, et seda autoktuseks tdelda. Cred loodi vastusena valitsuse veebruaris vlja antud valgele energeetikapaberile. Dokumendis totab valitsus vhendada ssihappegaasieritust 2050. aastaks 60 protsendi vrra. Tovey snul on valitsuse valgele paberile kirja pandud sna kenad mtted ja kogu dokument klab hsti. Paraku pole kodanikele antud htki juhist, kuidas kirjapandud kauneid mtteid ellu viia. Et segadust veelgi suurendada, on valge paberi sihtide saavutamiseks heaegselt kibel mitmeid tegevuskavu. Tagajrjeks on vga suur thelepanu kasvuhoonegaasiemissioonide vhendamisele samaaegselt igasuguste praktiliste juhiste puudumisega. Slide 13 Effet de serre : East Anglia montre lexemple lundi 15 septembre 2003, par collecte CND R.E.collecte CND R.E. Un groupe de scientifiques de luniversit dEast Anglia, lEst de lAngleterre, a lanc une campagne pour acclrer la rduction des missions de dioxyde de carbone de la rgion. Baptise CRed (pour Carbon Reduction Project), cette initiative ambitionne daller deux fois plus vite que les prvisions gouvernementales. Le projet a t lanc en raction au livre blanc sur lnergie publi en fvrier dans lequel le gouvernement stait fix comme objectif une diminution de 60% des missions de ce polluant dici 2050. Les responsables de CRed veulent y parvenir ds 2025. Pour cela, Keith Tovey et ses collgues ont russi mobiliser entreprises locales et particuliers pour faire des conomies dnergie et installer des panneaux photovoltaques sur les toits. La prochaine tape consiste rallier lEglise anglicane leur cause. Exposes plein sud, les glises ont en effet de larges toitures qui peuvent capter lnergie du soleil. Or, la rgion dEast Anglia compte plus de 600 chapelles. Si les scientifiques sont conscients du peu dimpact sur le changement climatique de leur action, ils comptent cependant provoquer dautres initiatives. Une dlgation japonaise est dj intresse par le projet. En France, la commune de Chalon-sur-Sane a dj mis en place une action similaire pour raliser en trois ans lengagement de rduction des missions de gaz effet de serre pris par lEurope sur dix ans. Pour lire notre article sur linitiative de Chalon-sur-Sane. Slide 14 ecologia e ambiente SULLEFFETTO SERRA LEAST ANGLIA DA LESEMPIO dalla redazione di Bruxelles Bruxelles, 15 settembre - Un gruppo di scienziati delluniversit di East Anglia (Inghilterra) ha lanciato una campagna per accelerare la riduzione delle emissioni di anidride carbonica della regione. Battezzato CRed (Carbon Reduction Project), liniziativa ha lambizione di andare due volte pi veloce delle previsioni governative. Il progetto (http://www.cred-uk.org/index.aspx) stato lanciato il reazione al Libro Bianco sullenergia pubblicato in febbraio nel quale il governo britannico aveva fissato come obiettivo una diminuzione del 60% delle emissioni di CO2 entro il 2025.http://www.cred-uk.org/index.aspx Per riuscire nellimpresa, Keith Tovey e i suoi colleghi sono riusciti a mobilitare le aziende locali e i cittadini per avviare programmi di efficienza e risparmio energetico e installare pannelli fotovoltaici. La prossima tappa consiste nel convincere la Chiesa anglicana a dar loro il suo sostegno. Esposte in pieno sud, le chiese hanno infatti grandi tetti che sono ideali per installare impianti che captano energia solare, e nella regione di East Anglia ci sono pi di 600 tra chiese e cappelle. Bench gli scienziati siano coscienti dello scarso impatto della loro iniziativa sul cambiamento climatico, contano tuttavia di promuovere altre iniziative. Una delegazione giapponese si gi interessata al progetto. Indice ecologia e ambienteecologia e ambiente Slide 15 Slide 16 How do we know the CRed community represents our region? Suffolk C. Council Norwich Union Liftshare Eastern Heatpumps Banham Poultry Woodys Norfolk C.Council NEWS SMS Strattons Deepdale Farm Camelot Craft Alpha Schools Jarvis Farmers link SERCO LSI R.Bilbie Amicus AEEAC Norwich 21 Global Commodities Kingswood School 100 + SLP Energy Powergen EDP LEA Diocese of Norwich Norwich Colour Print May Gurney EEDA BPS Sth Norfolk D. C. The Broads Auth. The RSPB SUSTRANS Whitby Bird Broadland DC RN:PS Norwich City Council Slide 17 There will be much more local generation, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid. Options for East Anglia up to 2020 Wind Energy Solar Energy Biomass / Biofuels [Bioethanol, Biodiesel, Electricity Generation] Slide 18 Wind Energy Each Wind Turbine the size of Swaffham will supply electricity for about 1000 homes. Each turbine will save around 1700 tonnes of carbon dioxide We would need to persuade 12000 motorists to each drive 500 miles less per year to get the same saving Economics of Wind Energy makes it the most attractive renewable option. New Approach: Community Initiative promoted by the community for the community 67m 66m Slide 19 Early Wind Power Devices C 700 AD in Persia used for grinding corn pumping water evidence suggests that dry valleys were Dammed to harvest wind Slide 20 Traditional Windmills American Homestead Windmill for pumping water Traditional English Windmill Spanish Windmills Note 7 in a cluster of 11 Slide 21 Vertical Axis Machines Musgrove Rotor Carmarthen Bay 1985 - 1994 Darrieus Rotor - machines up to 4 MW have been built. Slide 22 Other Wind Machines Savonius Rotors - good for pumping water - 3rd World applications Modern Multi-bladed water pumping HAWT. Slide 23 Wind Energy in Europe Currently 13,000 MW from wind energy Overall EU target of 12% of energy (22% electricity) from renewables by 2010 - UK 10% Slide 24 Wind Map of Western Europe: wind resource at 50m above surface Sheltered Open Coast Open sea Hills Dr J. Palutikof Slide 25 Distraction to drivers Danger to birds Radio/Television/Radar Interference Noise - mechanical, aerodynamic, ..infra-sound? Flickering - only relevant within buildings and then only in a precise orientation at selected times of the year. Danger of ice throw - not really a problem as other constraints will mean that a sufficient exclusion zone is present anyway Blade failure Aesthetics - Key Environmental Issues - some of main issues against Slide 26 Ice can form Planning Regulations Denmark Noise Slide 27 How many blades? Slide 28 Whilst the wind turbine is considered 'ugly' by some residents of Swaffham, most consider it a unique landmark and see it as an asset to the town. Most of the local population are proud of the turbine and it seems to have had a positive impact on the town in a number of ways. I do believe that were it not for the number of visitors to Swaffham, coming to see the turbine for whatever reason, we would not have such a high influx of buyers from out of the area. This has increased house prices, and the prosperity of the area. Slide 29 Solar Energy in UK Less affected by latitude than cloud cover In UK an average (day/night) of 115 W m-2 is being received On a dull day in excess of 20 W m-2 can still be falling on surfaces. Solar Thermal Hot Water Heaters can provide all hot water needs for a house in summer and around 50% over year. Solar Photo Voltaic cells generate electricity which can be uwsed to reduce electricity consumption in a house and at times can be sold to the grid. Applications in UK Slide 30 Solar Thermal Hot Water Heaters Individual Units are costly and at present NOT cost effective. Do not benefit from mass production Most cost effective when electricity is method of heating. The Broadland/ CRED scheme is aiming to get cost down to under 2000 per installed unit. This is achieved by bulk purchase for the benefit of a community. This approach will help to promote such schemes and also help to bring cost down. Building Regulations should make fitting of such collectors mandatory for all individual housing units Slide 31 Solar Photo Voltaics Some Facts Photo Voltaic Cells are becoming progressively cheaper Efficiencies of collectors are improving Grants of up to 70% of capital cost are available Photo voltaic cells can be manufactured in a variety of forms - even made to look like tiles - or made in the form which can be rolled out for easy installation. They can be easily connected to the Grid and sell surplus electricity while allowing import when no solar energy is available. Slide 32 Two Examples of photovoltaics House in Cringleford New Environmental Science Building 34 kW Peak array Slide 33 Most churches were built with roofs with a north-south aspect, which is ideal for catching sunlight, he explains. Aesthetic considerations are helped by photovoltaic solar cells that can be made to look like roof slates. The Times: Weather Eye: September 22, 2003 - Paul Simons THE Right Rev John Oliver, the Bishop of Hereford, is promoting a novel idea to help to cut the UKs carbon dioxide emissions he would like to use church roofs for solar panels in order to generate electricity. Bishop of Hereford has picked up idea of PV on Church Roofs Slide 34 How might such a PV project be funded? They are currently expensive, but are about to improve in efficiency and come down in price. There are grants available 50+% towards cost. For community buildings, there is the possibility to tap funds now available from the Landfill Tax. On average, 1 sq m will provide about 100 kWh of electricity each year, and will save 43 kg of CO2. Innovative financing needs to be explored Net Electricity use Sell all electricity to obtain Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs) Slide 35 Biomass Possibilities Biomass for electricity Generation Biodiesel Direct Combustion with or without CHP Pyrolisis / Gasification Can be used in 100% pure form in all diesels built in last 5 + years. Needs careful conversion if mineral diesel has been used previously Derived from recycled vegetable oils / oil seed rape etc. Much reduced particulates Global Commodities in Norfolk already produce bio-diesel. Woodys use vehicles powered exclusively by biodiesel. Slide 36 Biomass Possibilities - continued Bioethanol East Anglia and Farming Community well placed But economics are not right to make this attractive ? Reduce fuel duty on bioethanol (like biodiesel) 4 million tonne ? Surplus of wheat could be used for fuel EU requirement > 5+% incorporation of biofuels by 2010 Can be used as 10 15% blend with petrol. Derived from sugar, wheat, woody wastes If a bioethanol facility and associated infra-structure exists then possibilitiy of producing bioethanol from domestic waste is a possibility. Slide 37 We have difficult choices to make Slide 38 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Slide 39 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable GOVERNMENT EFFORTS to quadruple power generated from offshore wind farms by 2010 will fail because it is assuming unproven technology will deliver higher capacity turbines, contractors warned this week. There have been many proposals in past (e.g. off Wells, 1988), but only Blyth has been completed, and only one other is under construction. Offshore wind looses up to 8% of electricty compared to onshore. Slide 40 Our Choices: They are difficult Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years which is unlikely If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Slide 41 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS which will have to be imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use which could affect both industry and our ability to heat an light our homes in the future. Unless we are prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises. Slide 42 Our Choices: They are difficult A diverse supply of renewables across the country will provide security [it is rare for the wind not to be blowing anywhere except on sunny days when solar energy output is at a peak] A diverse renewable supply will be local, and will be less prone to cascade power cuts such as those recently in US, London, Italy, Denmark. Conventional generation is based on large units: 500 660 MW enough to supply over 1 million homes. These do fail from time to time, and require much greater backup than required for the failure of a few wind turbines. Renewable generation is less prone to major interruption BUT: Arent Renewables unreliable? we need secure supply Slide 43 Our Choices: They are difficult A sustainable future requires Provision of technical means to improve efficiency Education to make people aware that their actions matter A diverse supply of renewable energy Wind - Biomass > Solar > tidal > wave These actions will lead to a greater security of energy supply Solar Thermal Hot Water Heaters (with Broadland District Council) Examining Photovoltaic possibilities Wind Energy on UEA Campus Star in the East Project Database of Good Practice Making links/partnerships Lobbying Parliament (e.g. over Biofuels) What is CRed doing? Some Examples Slide 44 WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org/ This Presentation may be viewed on the WEB at www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm