Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE Energy Science Director Low Carbon Innovation Centre
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Transcript of Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE Energy Science Director Low Carbon Innovation Centre
Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE
Energy Science Director
Low Carbon Innovation Centre
School of Environmental Sciences
Rotary Club of Wymondham
11th August 2003
Hard Choices Ahead
Future Global Warming Rates
Range of predicted
temperatures
Local impacts
• Norfolk in that part of the UK which is likely to be most impacted.
• Re-distribution of rainfall; lower summer rainfall.
• Landscape/agriculture changes• Lower summer riverflows; reedbeds
under stress
Government Response• Energy White Paper – aspiration for 60% cut in
CO2 emissions by 2050
• Will require unprecedented partnership activity in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s (– but no indication of how this will be undertaken)
“There will be much more local generation, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.’’
- Energy White Paper: February 2003
The CRed ambition
To engage, enthuse and empower a large, diverse community to debate, plan and execute a programme to
reduce carbon emissions by up to 60% by 2025•Can a local community take on the responsibility for starting to confront the challenge of climate change and make a difference?•Or will it continue to be - someone/somewhere else?•Can we encourage politicians/officials to be bolder on our behalf?•“exemplar for the world”
The CRed Community
• Participatory/inclusive• Partnerships• Modes of participation (targets/methods)• Matrix of modes of participation =
representative of real-world complexity • Spark imaginations• Centred on Norwich/Norfolk, but links across
the region, country, the world….
The right language?
5 hot air balloons full of CO2 per person per year
(4 million per year over Norfolk)
How do we know the CRed community represents our
region?Suffolk C. Council
Norwich Union
Liftshare
Eastern Heatpumps
Banham Poultry
Woody’s
Norfolk C.Council
NEWS
SMS
Strattons
Deepdale Farm
Camelot Craft
Alpha Schools
Jarvis
Farmers link
SERCO
LSI
R.Bilbie
AmicusAEEAC
Norwich 21
Global Commodities
Kingswood School
100 +
SLP Energy
Powergen
EDP
LEA
Diocese of Norwich
Norwich Colour Print May
Gurney
EEDA
BPSSth Norfolk D. C.
The Broads Auth.The RSPB
SUSTRANS
Yet to decide
Supporting Buildings TransportProcessEnergy Saving
Funding
Promotion & Awareness
Raising
AlternativeEnergyProjects
Local Government
Large Business
Small Business
Schools
Householders
Farmers/ Landowners
Contruction/ Builders
Organisation
Suffolk C. Council
Norwich Union
Liftshare
Eastern Heatpumps
Banham Poultry
Woody’s
Norfolk C.Council
NEWS
SMSStrattonsDeepdale
FarmCamelot Craft
Alpha Schools
Jarvis
Farmers link
SERCOLSIR.Bilbie
Amicus
AEEACNorwich 21
Global Commodities
Kingswood School
100 +
SLP Energy
PowergenEDP
LEA
Powergen
Norwich Colour Print
May Gurney
EEDA
BPS
Sth Norfolk D. C.
The Broads Auth.
The RSPB
SUSTRANS
Woodfordes
Anglia Rwys
Renewables East
Norwich Diocese
Nitex
RNAA
NFUIndividual Farmers
BRE
EST
Norfolk C.CouncilNorwich City
Maswood Jalil
LEA
Anglia Rwys
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020
- Non-Renewable Methods
potential contribution to
Electricity Supply costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)
available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade
~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)
0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)
new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed
2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusion
unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"
Traditional Coal falling rapidly -
coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020
Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration
2.5 - 3.5p
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - RenewableUltimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supply after 2050
Projected costs in
2020
On shore Wind ~25%Available for exploitation now and cost effective
~ 2p
Off Shore Wind 25-50%
Technical developments needed- research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20 000 on shore.
3 - 5 p
Hydro 5%Technically mature but limited potential
2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic 50%Available but much research needed to bring down costs
greater than 10p
Energy Crops/ Biomass
? 25%Available - research needed in some area - competition with crops for petrol/diesel substitutes
2.5 - 4 p
Wave/ Tidal Stream
~100%Technology limited - extensive development unlike before 2015 - 2020
4 - 8p
Tidal Barrages ~10%Technology available, costly, major environmental problems, unavailable before 2015 - 2020
not costed in Energy
Review
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2040+
GOVERNMENT EFFORTS to quadruple power generated from offshore wind farms by 2010 will fail because it is assuming unproven technology will deliver higher capacity turbines, contractors warned this week.
Despite Government announcements last month we still need significant development of onshore wind.
There have been many proposals in past (e.g. off Wells, 1988), but only Blyth has been completed, and only one other is under construction.
Offshore wind looses up to 8% of electricty compared to onshore.
New Civil Engineer: 17th July 2003
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Ultimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supply after 2050
Projected costs in
2020
On shore Wind ~25%Available for exploitation now and cost effective
~ 2p
Off Shore Wind 25-50%
Technical developments needed- research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20 000 on shore.
3 - 5 p
Hydro 5%Technically mature but limited potential
2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic 50%Available but much research needed to bring down costs
greater than 10p
Energy Crops/ Biomass
? 25%Available - research needed in some area - competition with crops for petrol/diesel substitutes
2.5 - 4 p
Wave/ Tidal Stream
~100%Technology limited - extensive development unlike before 2015 - 2020
4 - 8p
Tidal Barrages ~10%Technology available, costly, major environmental problems, unavailable before 2015 - 2020
not costed in Energy
Review
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2040+
Our Choices: They are difficultDo we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass.
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power
• Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years
which is unlikelyIf our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for
both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020 we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS which will have to be imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use which could affect both industry and our ability to heat an light our homes in the future.
Unless we are prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
WEBSITE
www.cred-uk.org/
This presentation is now posted on the WEB at
www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm