Kegley chapter 7

Chapter 7: Patterns of Armed

Conflict

Chapter 7: Patterns of Armed

Conflict

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning

Force Coercive Diplomacy: The use of

violence or the threat of violence to achieve a political goal.

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General Trends Civil war vs. Interstate war Realists: war is an instrument for international

actors to use to resolve their conflicts Proportion of countries engaged in wars has

declined; mostly internal wars Fewer, but more deadly, armed conflicts Most wars occur in the Global South War is no longer fought to gain foreign territory War between great powers is becoming obsolete “Long peace”

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A Perspective on Armed Conflicts

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The Causes of Civil Wars

Ethnic groups Internal battles Religious conflicts “Failed states” Impoverished states

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The Characteristics of Failing States

Poverty Rule by corrupt governments Lack of democracy Poor democracies Population pressures Governments that fail to protect human rights Petrostates Lack of trade openness Large numbers of underemployed youths

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The Threat of Failed States

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The International Dimensions of Internal War

Great powers Diversionary theory of war Civil wars can become internationalized

through• The tendency for them to incite external

intervention• The propensity for leaders of governments that

are failing to wage wars abroad in order to try and control rebellion at home

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Insurgency, Guerilla Warfare,

and Counterinsurgency The focus is not on defeating the

enemy on the field of battle, but on raising the costs of conflict so that it is higher than any possible benefit to the attacker.

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Terrorism Asymmetric warfare: The use of

violence (or the threat of it) by non-governmental actors in an effort to change government policies by creating fear of further violence.

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Causes of Terrorism Rational Choice Explanation Poverty Religion Islam and Terrorism

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Who Becomes a Terrorist?

Profiling terrorists Group dynamics and terrorism

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New Global Terrorism Nonhierarchical Use of technology Religious fanaticism Goal is to kill as many people as

possible Fear of them acquiring WMDs

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The Number of Terrorist Incidents and the Rising Number of Casualties Since the Late 1960s

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Counterterrorism Repression Conciliation Bush Doctrine State-sponsored terrorism Terrorism harder to fight today

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War: First Level of Analysis (1 of 2)

Relationship between human nature and aggression

Humans one of few species to practice intraspecific aggression

Realists assume drive for power and aggression is innate

Most social scientists disagree

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First Level of Analysis (2 of 2)

Nature versus nurture debate Aggression through socialization

rather than instinct? Territorial imperative as cause of war National character: drives certain

nationalities to aggression Rational choice versus groupthink

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War: Second Level of Analysis (1 of 2)

States’ internal characteristics Duration of independence Cultural determinants of specific

states Feminist theories: masculine ethos

of realism Cultural conditioning

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Second Level of Analysis (2 of 2)

Poverty State location relative to other states Demographic stress Militarization Economic system: communism v.

capitalism Government system: democracies

don’t fight each other Nationalism

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Demographic Stress and the Likelihood of Civil War

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War: Third Level of Analysis (1 of 2)

Global characteristics engender war Realism: anarchy self-help Security dilemma Bargaining model of war Power transition theory: structural

realism Long-cycle theory: dethroning

hegemons• War weariness hypothesis

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The Long Cycle Theory of Global Leadership and Global War

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Web Links (1 of 2)

Incore Institute for War and Peace Reportin

g International Crisis Group War, Peace, Security Guide Arms Sales Monitoring Project

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http://www.incore.ulst.ac.uk/services/cds/countries

http://www.iwpr.net/

http://www.iwpr.net/

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm

http://wps.cfc.forces.gc.ca/

http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/asmp/index.html


Web Links (2 of 2)

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists The Henry L. Stimson Center SIPRI Military Expenditure Country

Graphs

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http://www.thebulletin.org/

http://www.stimson.org/

http://www.sipri.org/contents/webmaster/databases

http://www.sipri.org/contents/webmaster/databases

Kegley chapter 7

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Transcript of Kegley chapter 7