Keeping the door open for a two-degree world (Climate, Renewables and Coal) Philippe Benoit
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Keeping the door open for a two-degree world (Climate, Renewables and Coal) Philippe Benoit Head of Environment and Energy Efficiency Division International cooperation for the energy revolution Brussels, Belgium, 8th March 2013
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Keeping the door open for a two-degree world (Climate, Renewables and Coal) Philippe Benoit Head of Environment and Energy Efficiency Division International cooperation for the energy revolution Brussels, Belgium, 8th March 2013. Table of contents. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Keeping the door open for a two-degree world (Climate, Renewables and Coal) Philippe Benoit
Keeping the door open for a two-degree world
(Climate, Renewables and Coal)Philippe BenoitHead of Environment and Energy Efficiency Division
International cooperation for the energy revolutionBrussels, Belgium, 8th March 2013
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Table of contents
A. From Climate Change to Energy Emissions
B. Getting energy emissions to 2 C: Role for Renewables
C. Tools to promote renewables
D. Need to address fossil fuels
o
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From Climate Change to Energy Emissions AChange in global temperatures . . .
Source: (IPCC, 2007)
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A
Source: WEO, 2012
~ 4 C
~ 6 C
~ 2 C
Result from different GHG concentrations...
From Climate Change to Energy Emissions
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A
Source: WEO, 2010
Result from different emissions profiles.
~ 4 C
~ 6 C
~ 2 C
From Climate Change to Energy Emissions
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ATotal
anthropogenic emissions
Gt CO2
Energy sector is a key driver as it represents over 60% of human generated emissions...
Global energyemissions
From Climate Change to Energy Emissions
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Table of contents
o
A. From Climate Change to Energy Emissions
B. Getting energy emissions to 2 C: Role for Renewables
C. Tools to promote renewables
D. Need to address fossil fuels
E. Conclusions
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Lowering energy emissions
4DS 2DS
2 Co
15 Gt
29%
70%
OECDNon-OECD
2035
Gt CO2
4 Co
Global energyemissions
B
efficiency
CCS
nuclear
biofuels
renewables
Source: WEO 2012
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Role of renewables in electricity generation
2DSTWh
Annual electricity generation by technology
Renewables need to supply > 45% of the generation by 2035 and > 55% by 2050 in 2DS
> 55%
B
> 45%
Renewables
Nuclear
Fossil
Source: ETP, 2012
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Table of contents
o
A. From Climate Change to Energy Emissions
B. Getting energy emissions to 2 C: Role for Renewables
C. Tools to promote renewables
D. Need to address fossil fuels
E. Conclusions
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Continuing Policy Support: Necessary and Justified
Policies need to continue to deliver energy security, environmental and economic benefits
Need for economic incentivesRE technologies not yet generally cost competitive under current
pricing mechanisms (e.g. lack of global carbon pricing)Transitional support needed to stimulate learning and cost reduction
and bring a larger portfolio of RET to competitiveness Address non-economic barriers that hamper deployment
Access to market and administrative hurdlesAccess to finance Infrastructure barriersLack of awareness and skilled personnelPublic acceptance and environmental barriers
Policies need to have highest impact at lowest costs
C
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Policy Types
Information and education Policy Development
support Institutional capacityStrategic planning
Regulatory instrumentsAuditingMonitoringObligation schemes
(RPS) RD&D
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Overarching Best-Practice Policy Principles
Predictable RE policy framework, integrated into overall energy strategy
Portfolio of incentives based on technology and market maturity
Dynamic policy approach based on monitoring of national and global market trends
Tackle non-economic barriers Address system integration issues
C
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‘Diff. Horses for Diff. Courses’
Hydro vs. Wind vs. Solar vs. Biomass Underlying economics (grid-parity vs. subsidized)
HydroOn-shore windOff-shore windSolar
Power vs. Transport vs. Industry Structure of Economy
Role of Private SectorRole of Public Sector Role of state-owned enterprises
C
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Different Strokes for Different Investors
RENEWABLES
Private Sector State-Owned Enterprises
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IEA medium-term projections
Continued growth . . .
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020
TWh Global renewable electricity production, forecast and 2DS
OECD Europe OECD Americas OECD Asia Oceania China Brazil India Rest of Non-OECD
Historical Data MRMR ProjectionsETP 2DS
MTMR projections
C
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Emerging Role for Emerging Economies
China becomes deployment leader OECD Europe deployment growth slows OECD Americas growth tied to US policy uncertainties
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
GW Annual capacity additions , non-hydro technologies
OECD AO OECD AM OECD EUR China Rest of non-OECD
C
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Looking Ahead C
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Challenges to Growth
Challenges of scale:Large scale renewables require different transmission lines
(e.g., lines to remote sites)Requires different power system management (integration of
variable renewables) Missed synergies of national vs. multi-country
site optimization vs. national based preferencesInterconnectors: Regional Integration
Rising Electricity Prices and share of renewables and . . .
C
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Policy Uncertainties
CChallenges to Growth
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Table of contents
o
A. From Climate Change to Energy Emissions
B. Getting energy emissions to 2 C: Role for Renewables
C. Tools to promote renewables
D. Need to address fossil fuels
E. Conclusions
© OECD/IEA 2012
4 Co
Role of Renewables vs. Fossil Fuels
2 Co
2035
D
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2035
COAL716 GW installed
between 2000 and 2011
DRole of Renewables vs. Fossil Fuels
4 Co
2 Co
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Power generation
Industry
Transport
Other
Room to manoeuvre
“Lock-In” of 2 degree Emissions
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Gt
2 °C trajectory
Lock-in of existinginfrastructure
35
D
Room to manoeuvre
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Power generation
Industry
Transport
Other
Room to manoeuvre
“Lock-In” of 2 degree Emissions
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Gt
2 °C trajectory
Lock-in of existinginfrastructure
2017
Planned fossil fuel production through 2017 will generate all energy emissions under 2DS through 2035
35
D
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“Early retirement” (decommissioning)
Fuel switching (changing dispatch rather than energy mix)
Carbon Capture and Storage
Remove fossil fuel subsidies
Keys to ‘un-lock’ energy emissions include:
‘Un-locking’ strategies D
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Market mechanisms ETS Carbon taxing
Mandates – portfolio prescriptions /restrictions
Policy directives (e.g. to state-owned enterprises)
Influencing relative pricing
Possible Policy tools to unlock:
D‘Un-locking’ Policies
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Conclusions
Renewables remain the key to a green future and they still require policy attention for scaling up
But if we don’t address fossil fuel emissions, the 2-degree door will close
Policies need both to promote renewables and un-lock fossil fuel emissions to achieve a 2-degree future
Political Will/Motivation are key
E
