Keeping Current Matters By Steve & Gerri
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Keeping Current Matters By Steve & Gerri. March 2013. Pending Home Sales By Steve & Gerri Wadkins. NAR 2/2013. Pending Home Sales. 100 = Historically Healthy Level. January 2012 – January 2013. January 2011 – January 2012. NAR 2/2013. New Home SALES CALL Gerri 702-591-2576. +28.9%. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Keeping Current Matters By Steve & Gerri
90
95
100
105
110
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Pending Home SalesBy Steve & Gerri Wadkins
NAR 2/2013
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
January 2012 – January 2013
January 2011 – January 2012
100 = Historically Healthy Level
Pending Home Sales
NAR 2/2013
New HomeNew Home
SALESSALESCALL Gerri 702-591-2576CALL Gerri 702-591-2576
Compared to December 2012
Compared to January 2012
January 2013 Sales
+15.6%
+28.9%
Census 3/1/2013
“While gross domestic product is expected to be negatively impacted by all the uncertainty surrounding the nation's impending debt ceiling debate and the risk of sequestration, the housing sector is expected to continue
its upward trajectory, the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) said.”
PoliticalUncertainty
Housing Wire 2/25/2013
Month’s Inventory of Homes for SaleBuy NOW
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
NAR 2/2013
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
Month’s Inventory of Homes for SaleSELL NOW SAYS STEVE
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
NAR 2/2013
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
2011
2012
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
< 4 Months = Sellers’ Market
5-6 Months = Normal Market
Month’s Inventory of Homes for SaleSELL NOW SAYS STEVE…
NAR 2/2013
New Home Inventory
Calculated Risk 2/2013
Home Prices in the Short Term
130.00
135.00
140.00
145.00
150.00
May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
S&P Case Shiller 2/2013
PROJECTED?
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price IndicesS&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 2/2013
Metropolitan Area M-o-M
Atlanta 0.3
Boston 0.1
Charlotte -0.4
Chicago -0.7
Cleveland -0.1
Dallas -0.1
Denver -0.3
Detroit -0.6
Las Vegas 1.8
Los Angeles 1.1
Metropolitan Area M-o-M
Miami 0.8
Minneapolis -0.1
New York -0.4
Phoenix 0.9
Portland -0.5
San Diego 0.4
San Francisco 0.7
Seattle -0.5
Tampa 0.2
Washington -0.1
The MBA projects 30 year mortgage rates will hit 4.4% by the end
of the year.
Mortgage Rates Moving Forward
“After reaching record lows in 2012, mortgage rates are expected to creep up slowly in 2013, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)predicted.”
MarketWatch 10/24/2012
Impact of Increasing Rates
Price Rate P&I
200,000 3.4 886.96
200,000 4.4 1,001.52
Monthly Savings $114.56
“If, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) anticipates, the economic recovery continues at a moderate pace, with unemployment slowly declining and inflation expectations remaining near 2 percent, then long-term interest rates would be expected to rise gradually toward more normal levels over the next several years…
Bernanke on Interest Rates
Federal Reserve 3/1/2013
The precise timing and pace of the increase will depend importantly on how economic conditions develop, however, and is subject to considerable two-sided uncertainty.”
Housing America’s Future:New Directions for National Policy
Bipartisan Policy Center 3/1/2013
“The report proposed a reformed system of housing finance in which the private sector plays a far more prominent role in bearing credit risk while promoting a greater diversity of funding sources available for mortgage financing.
The problems we face in housing are so significant and so urgent today that inaction is no longer a viable option… It is therefore the commission’s hope that 2013 will be the year that Congress and the administration finally elevate housing to the top of the national policy agenda and give housing the dedicated attention it deserves.”
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
35%
23%
NAR 2/2013
Shadow InventoryShadow Inventory
“Shadow inventory never hit full force, so now I think we’re at a point where the pendulum has swung completely the other way and the housing market needs more inventory, so 2013 would be a serendipitous time for banks to release that inventory.”
Daren Blomquist, VP of RealtyTrac
He expects 600,000 REOs in 2013 and short sales to exceed the 2012 number, which will likely be around 1 million.
DSNews 2/22/2013
100 hardest hit zips in 2012
FORECLOSURESFORECLOSURES
CNN Money 2013
Short Sales Moving Forward
“Short sales don’t seem to be going away anytime soon...I think 2013 and 2014 are going to be all about the short sale.”Wingspan Portfolio Advisors CEO Steven Horne
“I think we’re going to set a new record for short sales in 2013.”
Rick Sharga, EVP of Carrington Mortgage
HousingWire 2/21/2013
“Weary of mis information, people are making integrity a new form of
competitive advantage…
More important than ever to building brand equity and differentiation, trust has become a precious commodity.”
Building Trust is Important
Ford 2013
