Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change...
-
Upload
elwin-mccoy -
Category
Documents
-
view
222 -
download
3
Transcript of Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change...
![Page 1: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale RothmanAlexandria, 20 March 2004
MedAction Module 1MedAction Module 1Land use change Land use change scenarios at various scenarios at various scalesscales
![Page 2: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Scenarios2000-2030
Decision Support Systems
Policy Support Framework
Stake-holders
Main products of MedAction Main products of MedAction
![Page 3: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
The goal is to develop qualitative scenarios, or narrative storylines. Thus, we expand our mental model beyond conventional thinking and trend extrapolation, and include more surprising developments.
The relevant question that scenarios can answer is not whether an event could happen, but what we could do if it did happen.
What kind of scenarios?What kind of scenarios?
![Page 4: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Workshops withLocal actors Target Area Scenarios
Multi-scale scenario developmentMulti-scale scenario development
3 European Scenarios(from VISIONS)
3 Mediterranean Scenarios
![Page 5: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
European ScenariosEuropean ScenariosFactor-Actor-Sector FrameworkFactor-Actor-Sector Framework
VISIONS MedAction
Factors Equity Water AvailabilityEmployment MigrationConsumption behaviour Land DegradationEnvironmental degradation Economic Stability
Actors NGOs NGOs
Scientists ScientistsBusinesses BusinessesGovernmental bodies Governmental bodies
Sectors Energy AgricultureWater TourismTransport ForestryInfrastructure Civic
![Page 6: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
DroughtDesert formation
Flooding
Convulsive Change
Knowledge is King
Information Technology dominates
Inventions
Big is Beautiful
+
+
Merger Mania
Three European scenariosThree European scenarios
![Page 7: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Translation to Mediterranean region: Translation to Mediterranean region: Knowledge is KingKnowledge is King
Information Technology dominates
InventionsDesalination of sea waterLife extension drug
Sun-Beltand
Snow-birds
Transportfaster and cheaper
Tourist numbers increase
![Page 8: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Target Area scenario developmentTarget Area scenario development
The ideal situation is to have three workshops in all Target Areas:
1. Preparatory workshopsIntroduction
2. First series of workshopsDevelopment narrative storylines 2030
3. Second series of workshopsBackcasting exercise and short term
action
![Page 9: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Schedule of stakeholder workshopsSchedule of stakeholder workshops
Target Area Preparatory First Second workshop workshop workshop
Guadalentín 21-06-’02 08-11-’02 25-06-‘03Agri Valley 17-06-’02 21-10-’02 26-07-‘03Lesvos 11-05-’02 XX XXAlentejo XX 08-14-’02 XX
![Page 10: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
First stakeholder workshopsFirst stakeholder workshops
Maratea, Italy – October 21, 2002 (24)Murcia, Spain – November 8, 2002 (20)Mértola, Portugal – November 11, 2002 (16)
![Page 11: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Main questions 1Main questions 1stst workshop workshop
What are the most important factors in your region?
The Story of the Present
How might your region look in 2030 under different European and world
developments?
The Story of the Future
![Page 12: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
The story of the presentThe story of the present
![Page 13: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Writing post-itsWriting post-its
![Page 14: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Discussing relationships between factorsDiscussing relationships between factors
![Page 15: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Final productFinal product
Climate
Water
Land usechange
Population,Migration
Environmentaleducation
RegionalPolicies
Agrarian Policies
Desertification
![Page 16: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
The story of the futureThe story of the future
![Page 17: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Creating the scenariosCreating the scenarios
![Page 18: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
The collagesThe collages
![Page 19: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Presenting the scenariosPresenting the scenarios
![Page 20: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Conclusions of evaluationConclusions of evaluation
Story of the present:No new factors of major importance Locally very different factors (oil in Italy!) and different emphasisPERCEPTION IS DIFFERENT Desertification is human desertification
Story of the future:• Too general• Too much following Mediterranean scenarios
![Page 21: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Second stakeholder workshopsSecond stakeholder workshops
Totana, Spain – June 25, 2003 (20)Missanello, Italy – July 26, 2003 (24)
![Page 22: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Main questions 2Main questions 2ndnd workshop workshop
What will be the main short-term trends in your region starting from the current situation?
Extension of the Present
How do the present and future connect?
Backcasting exercise
![Page 23: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Extension of the presentExtension of the present
![Page 24: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Trends in next 5 yearsTrends in next 5 years
Sectors:Agriculture smallholders disappearTourism increasingly important
Factors:Water less availabilityEnvironmental resources more degradationPopulation and migration rural outmigration
![Page 25: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Backcasting exerciseBackcasting exercise
![Page 26: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Backcasting exerciseBackcasting exercise
1. Pick one factor from “your” scenario
2. Decide whether you want to discuss • This factor (future of the scenario)• The opposite of this factor (desirable
future)
3. Develop a series of events and actions at short and medium term that should necessary happen in order to realise the (desired) situation of this factor in 2030
![Page 27: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Shortterm
Mediumterm
Longterm
PresentExtension of the present
What?
When?
Who?
How?
NOGolf
courses
Continuation of intensive agriculture
New subsidies
Sufficient water
“Agriculture before anything”
Lowerprices
New canals
Stop rural outmigrtion
EU?
??
??
????
??
??
??
![Page 28: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Sector Short term Medium term Long term
o Research in local knowledgeo Adult training processeso Innovative didacticso Active participation
o Improve local awarenesso Spread positive experienceso Information campaigns
o Marketing local productso Marketing image of the Agrio Collective quality markso Quality brand Val d’Agri
o Capillary street systemo Construct airport in areao Improve water system
o New subsidieso Low impact techniqueso Awareness campaignso Promotion local products
o Increase farm profitso Multifunctional agricultureo Incentives rural tourismo Increase life quality inner zones
Increase the awareness on the topic of rurality
Stimulate young people to invest in agriculture
Increase quality of local, biological products
Increase quality and quantity of
local infrastructure
Strengthening of market power
of the local farmer
Resolving institutional problems with establishment
and management
Multifunctional sustainable agriculture (BiB)
Multifunctional sustainable
agriculture managed by the local farmer
HUMAN CAPITAL
DEMOGRAPHY
AGRICULTURE
INFRASTRUCTURE
MARKETING
VAL D’AGRI NATIONAL PARK
![Page 29: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
SummarySummary
Present Short Medium Long term
2003 2008 2008-2030 2030
When? 1st 2nd 2nd 1st How? All Groups Groups Groups
Post-its Discussion Backcasting CollageResults Main factors Major trends Desirable futures ‘Real’ futures
![Page 30: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
ConclusionsConclusionsProcess• Vivid discussions and active participation• Enthusiasm and interest• Increased communication• Start of a long-term interaction and participation?
ResultsPerception of local stakeholders on:• Present situation• Current trends and short-term fears• Long-term hopes and desires• Long-term reactions to European changes
![Page 31: Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004 MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697bffa1a28abf838cc0666/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
ConclusionsConclusions
Link to policies to combat desertification:
• Local stakeholders perceive desertification as human desertification and causes as socioeconmic• Their interest is not the land but the “territory”
• More integrated policies are needed• Future changes need to be considered (tourism!)