Irfan ArshadIR DepartmentUniversity of SargodhaPakistan

Pakistan is already one of the most water-stressed countries in the world, a situation which is going to degrade into outright water scarcity due to high population growth.

It depends on a single river system ; hence suffering with lack of multiplicity of river basins and diversity of water resources.

Indus Waters have become an increasing bone of

contention, not only between India and Pakistan, but also between the regions/provinces in these two countries.

To meet the rising demand of water and power for economic growth, Pakistan urgently needs a series of water storage and hydroelectric power projects.

Kalabagh Dam figures out prominently in this regard. Opposing concerns be resolved at the earliest in the

larger interest of the country, its people and the future generations.

1.History of Water Dispute2.Need of large Dams3.Why Kalabagh Dam?4.Role of Kalabagh Dam5.Apprehensions and Answers6.conclusion

Sequence

a. Pre Pakistan b. Post Pakistanc. Water Apportionment Accord-

1991d. Indus River System

Authority(IRSA)e. Persistent Dissonance

1. History of Water Dispute

a. Pre Pakistan 1) Provision of irrigation on a controlled year

around basis in subcontinent started in 1859.

2) The conflict between Sindh and Punjab over water apportionment is as old as the 1870s, when Punjab started constructing irrigation infrastructure on Indus River.

3) There were several accords and agreements regarding water apportionment between Sindh and Punjab promulgated by the British India governments.

4) India Irrigation Commission 1901-1903, was among the initial accords for Water of Indus River recognizing the need and decreeing Sindh's usage of Indus water. issues.

5) Punjab was denied right to use Indus River water until the completion of Sukkur Barrage Project (Cotton Committee-1919). Thal Project by Punjab met identical refusals in 1919 and 1925 by the then Viceroys, Lord Chelmsford and Lord Raiding respectively.

6) Anderson Committee was the first that was appointed by the Government of British India around 1935 to resolve water sharing problems among former states of Bekaneer, Bahawalpur and the Punjab, later joined by Khairpur state. Mr. Anderson, Chief Engineer UP presented report in 1935.

7) After restoration of provincial status of Sindh in British India, an agreement was reached in 1945 signed by Chief Engineers of the two provinces, whereby the right of Sindh over Indus water was held supreme, but it was not ratified by the Government of Punjab for lack of settlement of financial .

b. Post Pakistan 1) Consequent to partition of British India,

Kashmir, besides its political dimension, being the origin of many rivers, also manifested in enduring disagreement over sharing of Indus waters between India and Pakistan.

2) The origin of issue between the two countries lay in division of 'the major tributaries (Ravi, Beas and Sutlej rivers) of the Indus between upstream and downstream riparians that provided irrigation water for the fertile and densely populated region of Punjab on both sides of the border.

3) The World Bank played major role by providing mediation, support staff, funding and proposals for pushing negotiations forward, and was able to resolve it after 9 years with the signing of Indus Water Treaty (IWT) in September 1960 for joint sharing of water in the Indus basin.

4) In Pakistan, however, distribution of water continued in accordance with the 1945 Formula till 1977 when, after construction of Tarbella dam, the Federal Government decided to follow ad-hoc arrangements for water apportionment between provinces.

5) After the dismemberment of One Unit in 1970, the Federal Government on the request of the provinces appointed different commissions/committees, headed by Supreme Court Judges, one after another to examine the problem of inter-provincial apportionment of Indus water, but the consensus could not develop amongst the provinces on Justice Fazle Altar committee and Justice Haleem Commission.

c. Water Apportionment Accord-1991 It was signed by chief ministers of all four prov,

1991. It replaced previous agreements to distribute the Indus River waters among the provinces and command areas. It established the water rights among the provinces inces of Pakistan on 16th March 1991 andratified by the Council of Common Interest (CCI) on 21st Marchand protects future water rights, including the effect of future storages.

d. Indus River System Authority (IRSA)

1) The regulatory authority for monitoring and distribution of the water sources of the Indus River.

2) CCI held its meeting on 16th September 1991 to decide 10-day average system-wise, season-wise allocation consented in clause VII of WAA for the provinces.

3) The ground realities suggest that till 2003 sharing for availability below accord allocation was being done on the basis of average uses for five years from 1977-82 (historic uses) rather than on the basis of 10 daily statements approved by the CCI, which was a clear violation of the accord".

4) In May 1994, Punjab presented a working before the Federal Minister of Water proposing a different formula for sharing shortages now known as the so called "Historical Use Formula." The matter was subsequently referred to the Federal Law Division, which duly observed it as violation of the 1991 Accord and the Constitution of Islamic Republic of Pakistan. The proposed provision was regarded by some as a catalyst for sowing the seeds of discord on water accord.

e. The persistent Dissonance 1) In all from 1937 until signing of WAA, there

were several attempts made but failed except Rau Commission. These were ;-

a) Anderson Committee (1935)b) Indus (Rau) Commission (1939)c) Akhtar Hussain Committee (1968)d) Fazal-e-Akbar Committee (1970)e) Anwar-ul-Haq Commission (1981)f) Haleem Committee (1983)

2) In the Indus Waters Accord of 1991, all provinces also recognized the need for new storages wherever feasible for planned future agricultural development.

3) These structural arrangements by and large managed the conflicts, but remained far from finding their enduring resolution.

a. Water Shortageb. Food Securityc. Deteriorating Storage Capacity of

Old Damsd. Flood Preventione. Power Generationf. Modification of Old Irrigation

Systemg. Aggressive Designs of India

2. Need of Large Dams

13

WATER DEMAND POPULATION 2005 141 million

2025 220 million

URBAN POPULATION Currently 35%2025 60%

TOTAL AREA 196 M ACRESCULTIVABLE 77 MACULTIVATED 54.5 MAREMAINING 22.5 MA Needs Add. Water

To increase the crop yield requires additional water.

Net Crop Water Requirement 2003-4 77.4 MAF2010-11 89 MAF2024-25 114.64 MAF

Domestic Demand Currently≈ 4.0 MAF 2025 ≈ 10.5MAF

14

WATER AVAILABILITY Vs POPULATION GROWTH

5260

3888

2751

2129

15551282

1066 915858

34

46

65

84

115

139.5

195.5

167.72

208.4

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2002 2010 2020 2025

YEAR

PER

CA

PITA

AVA

ILA

BIL

ITY

(M)

3

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

PER CAPITA AVAILIBILITY

POPULATION GROWTH

WA

TER

AVA

ILA

BIL

ITY

(MA

F)

POPU

LATI

ON

(Mill

ion)

1234 m3 2004

151.11 Million (2004)

16

ARABIAN SEA

Chenab River

DISPUTED

TERRITORYINDUS

RIVERKABUL RIVER

Ravi Rive

r

Jhel

um R

iver

Sutlej River

LEGENDMOUNTAINS

DESERTS

AREA UNDERIRRIGATION

AREA THATCAN BE BROUGHTUNDER IRRIGATION

CATEGORY AREA (MA)

GEOGRAPHICAL AREA 196.0

AREA SUITABLE FOR AGRICULTURE 77.1

CULTIVATED AREA(IRRIGATED + BARANI) 54.5

AREA UNDER IRRIGATION(BY ALL SOURCES) 44.4

ADDITIONAL AREA THAT CAN BE BROUGHT UNDER IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE

22.5

SOURCE: AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS OF PAKISTAN 1998-99

LAND USE IN PAKISTAN

Indu

s R

iver

Sindh 3.6 MAPunjab 4.3 MANWFP 3.0 MABaloch. 11.6 MATOTAL 22.5 MA

17

RESERVOIR

GROSS STORAGE CAPACITY

(MAF)GROSS STORAGE LOSS

ORIGINAL YEAR 2004YEAR 2004

(MAF)YEAR 2010

(MAF)YEAR 2025

(MAF)

TARBELA 11.62 (1974) 8.36 (72%) 3.26 (28%) 3.95 (34%) 5.51 (47%)

MANGLA 5.88 (1967) 4.64 (78%) 1.24 (22%) 1.60 (27%) 1.97 (34%)

CHASHMA 0.87 (1971) 0.48 (55%) 0.39 (45%) 0.58 (55%) 0.50 (57%)

TOTAL 18.37 13.48 (73%) 4.89 (27%) 6.03 (33%) 7.98 (43%)

RESERVOIR SEDIMENTATION (MAF)

18

AVAILABILITY From Western Rivers at RIM Stations 141 MAF Above Rim Stations 5 MAFTOTAL 146 MAF

USES Above RIM Stations 5 MAF Canal Diversion 106 MAFTOTAL 111 MAFBALANCE AVAILABLE 35 MAF

WATER AVAILABILITY IN PAKISTAN

19

ESCAPAGE BELOW KOTRIHYDROLOGICAL YEAR FROM APRIL TO MARCH

30.39 29.81

9.68

45.91

29.5526.90

17.53

52.86

17.22

42.34

53.29

81.49

29.11

91.83

62.76

45.40

0.77 1.93

20.18

69.08

33.79 35.15

2.37

8.83

20.79

80.59

20.10

10.98

0

20

40

60

80

100

1976

-77

1977

-78

1978

-79

1979

-80

1980

-81

1981

-82

1982

-83

1983

-84

1984

-85

1985

-86

1986

-87

1987

-88

1988

-89

1989

-90

1990

-91

1991

-92

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-200

0

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

YEARS

AN

NU

AL

DIS

CH

AR

GE

(MA

F)

AVG. (34.7)

Source: WRMD WAPDA

Source: WRMD WAPDA based on data supplied by Govt. of SindhApril 2005 1.6 MAFMay 2005 0.74 MAF

2.34 MAF

Sr. No. Name of Station Installed capacity (MWs)

1 Tarbela 34782 Ghazi Barotha 1450.3 Mangla 1000.4 Warsak 240.05 Chashma 184.06 Rasul 22.07 Malakand 19.68 Dargai 20.09 Nandipur 13.8

10 Shadiwal 13.511 Chichoki Malian 13.212 K.Garhi & Renala 5.113 Chitral 1.14 Satpara 4.86

Total 6464

Installed Hydropower Stations in Pakistan

Name of Project Capacity (MW) Tentative Commissioning

New Bong Escape at 84 2010

Rajdhani at Punch (AJK)

132 2011

Matiltan at Swat 84 2012

Malakand III( ) 81 2008

Kotli 100 2011

Gulpur (AJK) 120 2012

Gabral – Kalam 101 2012

Hydropower Projects in Private Sector

Total 19403 MW

Oil6497 MW

(34%)

Hydel6489 MW

(33%)

Nuclear452 MW

(2%)Coal

150 MW(1%)

Gas5815 MW

(30%)

OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR

GENERATION PATTERN

23

PAKISTAN’S HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL (SUMMARY)

Sr.No.

River/ Tributary Power(MW)

1. Indus River 357602. Tributaries of Indus (Northern Areas) of NWFP 5558

Sub Total (1+2) 413183. Jhelum River 31434, Kunhar River 12505. Neelum River & its Tributaries 24596. Poonch River 397

Sub Total (3+4+5+6) 72497. Swat River & its Tributaries 23888. Chitral River & its Tributaries 2282

Sub Total (7+8) 46709. Schemes below 50 MW on Tributaries 1290

TOTAL 54, 527

24

76.2

8.3

13.2

2.4

Indus River BasinJhelum River BasinSwat & Chitral RiverSmall Hydel

PAKISTAN’S HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL

41816 MW

7249 MW

4528 MW

1290 MW

Swat & Chitral River

Jhelum River Basin

Small Hydel

Indus River Basin

a. Diamer-Bhashab. Akhoric. Munda Damd. Kurrum Tangi Dame. Kalabagh Dam

3. Why We Need Kalabagh Dam

Akhori Dam

Kurram Tangi Dam

a. Replacing storage lost by sedimentation

b. Providing additional storage c. Providing effective regulation of

Indus d. Regulation and control of high

flood peaks in the Indus e. Generating hydro-power f. Reducing dependence on

imported fuelsg.  Creating employment

4. Role of Kalabagh Dam

5. Apprehensions and Answers

a. Apprehensions of Khaber

Pakhtunkhawa1)Flooding of Peshawar Valley including

Nowshera.

2)Drainages of Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi .

3)Operation of Mardan SCARP end up.

4)Fertile land would be submerged.

5)Displacment of People.

APPREHENSION OF NWFP 1. flooding of Peshawar Valley including Nowshera®Backwater effect of Dam lake would end about 10 miles

downstream of Nowshera.2. Area of Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi plains would be

adversely affected creating water logging and salinity.® Lowest ground levels at Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi areas

are 970, 960 and 1000 feet above MSL respectively, as compared to the maximum conservation level of 915 ft for dam, Operation pattern of reservoir cannot block the land drainage and cause water logging or salinity

3. Operation of Mardan SCARP would be adversely affected. ® The invert levels of main drains of Mardan SCARP are higher than reservoir elevation of 915 feet and the back water level in Kabul River. These drains would keep on functioning without any obstruction.4. Fertile cultivable land would be submerged. ® Total cultivable affected land under the reservoir is only 35,000 acres,(24,500 acres in Punjab 3,000 acres in NWFP).irrigated land would be only 3,000 acres (2,900 acres in Punjab and 100 acres in NWFP).5. Population Dislocation ® Total population to be relocated is 120320 of which 78,170 shall be from Punjab and 42,150 from NWFP.

Resettlement of Affected Population will be properly compensated

b. Apprehensions of Sind1)No surplus water available to fill dam

2) Sindh will be turned into a desert.

3)High level outlets to divert water

4)Cultivation in riverine (Sailaba) will end.

5)Sea water intrusion

6)Mangrove forests are threatened

7)Fish production and drinking water

problems

APPREHENSIONS OF SINDH(1) No surplus water to fill Kalabagh Dam reservoir ® Annual average of 35 MAF escape below Kotri to Sea.

® Kalabagh Dam reservoir will be filled up by only 6MAF, which will gradually be released to the provinces.

® Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has studied and confirmed that sufficient water is available for further storage

® Surface flow annual 151 MAF

(2) Anxiety the project would render Sindh into desert. ® Dams don’t consume water! These only store water during flood season and make it available on crop demand basis® After Pakistan Dam, the canal withdrawals for Sindh would further increase by about 2.25 MAF.(3) Outlets would be used to divert water from the reservoir ® The project design must not include any provision for canals. ® Telemetric system are working well which are installed at each barrage and flow control points to monitor discharge in various canals commands, on real time basis under the auspices of Indus Water River System Authority (IRSA) and in all provinces.

(4) Cultivation in “Sailaba” areas would be effected ® Flood peaks above 300,000 cusecs would still be coming after construction of Pakistan Dam, without detriment to the present agricultural practices, while large floods would be effectively controlled. This would, in fact, be conducive to installation of permanent tube wells to provide perennial irrigation facility in rive rain areas. The farmer can have two crops annually instead of the present one crop. (5) Sea Water intrusion estuary would accentuate. ® Data shows that sea water intrusion, seems to be at its maximum even now, and it is unlikely to be aggravated further by Pakistan Dam.