Ka-fu Wong © 2003 Project B - 1 Dr. Ka-fu Wong ECON1003 Analysis of Economic Data.

Ka-fu Wong © 2003 Project B - 1

Dr. Ka-fu Wong

ECON1003Analysis of Economic Data

Ka-fu Wong © 2003 Project B - 2l

GOALS

1. Overview of project requirements2. Tips on team work, presentation and

writing3. Assessment scheme 4. Possible topics5. Demonstrate a five-minute presentation6. Walk through step by step how the five-

minute presentation was prepared.

Briefing notes about Project BBriefing notes about Project B


Projects 30%

The project is intended to expose you to the use of statistics in real problems of your choice. The presentations and project reports also help improve and test our understanding of the subject. .

It allows us to sharpen our skills in statistical analysis, oral presentations, written presentations, and teamwork.


Students will be randomly assigned into groups of two to work on two projects. The team as a whole is responsible for the project analysis and implementation.

Individual team members take turns writing the project reports and giving the presentations. The person who gives the oral report cannot be the person who authors the written report.

Thus each project receives three grades, an analysis grade that is given to every team member, a writing grade that is given to the report's author, and a presentation grade that is given to the presenter.

Team work:


Ground rules for team work

Be truthful. You don’t have to like people to work with

them. Affirm collective responsibility. Develop and practise listening skills. Participate fully. Everyone takes a fair share of the work. Working to strengths can benefit the group. Don’t always work to strengths, however! Keep good records. Respect group deadlines. Cultivate philanthropy. Value creativity and off-the-wall ideas. Work systematically.


These presentations will be Powerpoint based.

Please hand in a softcopy of your Powerpoint file, via email.

Presentation will be video-recorded so that presenters has a chance to see their own performance.

Your performance will be graded by your peers and TA.

The instructor will randomly check the grading and videos to make sure that the grading has been fair.

In case of grade disputes, we can sit down to view the tape together.

Five-minute Presentations:


Assessing Presentations

Clarity: Do we understand everything the speaker said? Are at least the main points of the presentation clear?

Content: Is the content appropriate for this assignment? Does the analysis use the appropriate statistical tools? And use it correctly? Is the level appropriate? Is the information accurate?

Analysis: Does the analysis use the appropriate statistical tools? And use it correctly? Does the conclusion / observation follow logically from the statistical analysis?

Organization: Is the talk effectively organized? Is it clear how one idea or fact followed from another? Is there a clear logical progression or structure to the talk?

Delivery: Does the speaker talk clearly and directly to the audience? Does the speaker seem adequately confident and familiar with the material? Are the visual aids used effectively?

Conciseness: Does the speaker express ideas concisely? Too concisely? Does the speaker finish within the alloted time?


Tips about presentations

Must use Powerpoint for presentations. Do not use too many animations. Use colors to highlight your analysis.

Understand the materials well. Try not to rely on notes: audiences have more

confidence in speakers who don't rely much on notes. Practise, practise, practise:

To get a feeling about timing. To get rid of some nervous habits (fiddling with a

button, putting a hand in a pocket, saying “um”). Trian our eye contact with audience. Do we understand everything the speaker said? Are

at least the main points of the presentation clear?


No more than five pages. Please hand in a softcopy of your report, via email. All papers should be easy to read, i.e. typed (word

processed) in a standard 12pt font with reasonable margins and 1.5 to double spaced.

When writing up the project, in addition to your discussion of results, you should include a clear description of the experiment, including how the data was collected, and a summary of steps of your analysis. The collected data and questionnaire (if any) should be included in a data appendix.

The TA (and possibly your peers) will be grading it.

The instructor will randomly check the grading to make sure that the grading has been fair.

Three to five page Written reports:


Assessing Written Report

Clarity: Do we understand everything in the report? Are at least the main points of the report clear? Does the report give us enough information for us to repeat the analysis ourselves?

Content: Is the content appropriate for this assignment? Does the analysis use the appropriate statistical tools? And use it correctly? Is the level appropriate? Is the information accurate?

Organization: Is the paper effectively organized? Is it clear how one idea or fact followed from another? Is there a clear logical progression or structure in the paper?

Grammar and spelling: Are there any misspellings or major grammatical errors so as to impede reader’s understanding?

Format: Is the report double spaced? Does it has paragraph structure? Correct punctuation?


Tips about writing

Structure of the report: Title page: one- to two-line simple title. Include the

names and student ids of the group members. Introduction: State the aims and terms fo reference of

the report and any useful background information. Data description: How we collect the raw data? What

are the raw data? Do we transform the data before use?

Results: descriptive statistics, tables, plots, regression results, hypothesis testing and an analysis of them.

Conclusion: Whatever conclusion we can draw from the analysis.

Appendices: Questionnaire form. List of data. All appendices must be referred to in the main body of the report.

References: Books and websites referred in the report.

3 to 5 pages.


Tips about writing

Have a good understanding of the subject to be covered. Read thoroughly and widely, discuss the subject with others and sometimes just sit and think.

Sort your ideas out. If you have ideas clear in your mind then usually your written work will be clear.

Think about your audience. Your style of writing should affect the way you write and what you include in the report.

Produce a plan so that you put your ideas down in a logical sequence. Nothing confuses a reader more than disjointed arguments. You can probably fit your ideas into four or five main headings.


Tips about writing

Must be typed in Microsoft Words. Use the require format. Standard 12pt font with

reasonable margins and 1.5 to double spaced. Write a draft - you are unlikely to get it right first

time. If you have time put it aside for a while and go back and re-read it - you will be surprised how different it looks.

Write the final report. Remember to acknowledge sources of information and quotes (references and bibliography).

Proof read it. Don’t rely on your spell checker - their are sum flings a spell chequer will knot pick up!!

Strunk and White: The elements of style is a good handbook on writing.


Tips about writingBibliography/References Style.

This section should be arranged alphabetically by author then by URL if it doesn't have an author (alphabetically).

If the reference takes up more than one line the 2nd and proceeding lines should all be indented but not the first line!



When citing a work in the body of the text put the authors name and the publication date in parenthesis near the end of the sentence with the referenced material. This is an example. The birth timing can be viewed as a way of

giving a capital endowment to the next generation by the parents, akin to the human capital theory of Gary Becker (1964). This view is of course consistent with the news report cited above. Thus, a simple modification of the standard returns-to-education methodology (e.g. Mincer, 1974; Psacharopoulos, 1994; Bennell, 1998; and Wei et al., 1999) is appropriate to verify empirically whether this superstition is correct or not.



General Style Author. Year. Title. Secondary Title, Secondary Author. Place Published: Publisher, pp. Pages.

Book Author. Year. Title, Edition, Volume, Series Editor, City: Publisher, pp. Pages.

Book Section Author. Year. Section Title. Book Title, Editor, ed. City: Publisher, pp. Pages.

Journal Article Author Year. Title. Journal Volume, Pages.


Tips about writing Bibliography/References Style.

WEB sites include the URL (e.g. http://www.albany.edu) And the name of the School or University /Department/ Faculty/ or Company/organization that runs the site. If they have references you should site the originals by looking the appropriate one up in the library.

Handouts Instructor (last name first), Handout Title, Course Number, Semester & Year, School, pp. pages.


An Element of Peer Assessment

Peer assessment helps us learn: On presentation: Being critical on someone else’s

presentation, peer assessment help alert us to good and bad practice in presentations. It help us develop awareness of the style and process dimensions of presentations.

On writing report: Being critical on someone else’s work, peer assessment help alert us to good and bad practice in report writing. It help us develop awareness of the importance of structure, coherence and layout in reports.

TA assessment

Instructor will make sure that the grading has been fair – by random inspections.

75%

25%


Need a second chance?

Students can choose to work on a second project if they feel that their second project can improve a lot over their first project.

However, they must work on a different project. All team members must agree to do so. Their grades on project A will be based solely on the

last presentations and reports.

Most students would not need a second chance if they follow our tips.


Two types of projects. Type A will involve simple plots of data, summary

statistics, and analysis – in the first half of the semester.

Type B will involve estimating the relationship among variables (i.e., regressions) and testing their significance – in the second half of the semester.

The team is free to choose among a pool of projects (supplied by the instructor, to be announced later). You are encouraged to choose topics outside this pool. However, if you have different project topics, you must get approval from your instructor.

Project topics:


Type B will involve estimating the relationship among variables (i.e., regressions) and testing their significance – in the second half of the semester.

In your presentation or your report, you need to briefly describe your data in table or charts.

At the time of writing, regression has not yet been covered. Nevertheless, please refer to the book for details, refer to the Excel Add-on (the comes with the book) to run your regressions.

Please pay attention on how to interpret your results.

Project topics:


Randomly select a sample of stock mutual funds, and record their total return in 2001 and 2002. Can the return in 2001 and other characteristics of the mutual funds used to predict the return in 2002? That is, can we use the 2001 return to guide us in our investment in mutual funds?

Visit the library and ask the librarian (reference counter) to help locate the electronic data series of HK stock prices. Collect the prices of a sample of stocks in 2001 and 2002. Compute their mean and standard deviations of daily percentage change in prices, and hence Sharpe Ratio. Can the return in 2001 and other characteristics of the stocks used to predict the return in 2002? That is, can we use the 2001 return to guide us in our investment in stocks?

Examples of Type B Project topics:On Finance


Collect the share price of HSBC and its derivatives (warrants, options, etc.) over time. Is the daily changes in HSBC share prices related to the daily changes of the prices of its derivatives? How?

Collect the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Index Futures over time. Is the daily changes in Hang Seng Index related to the daily changes of the Hang Seng Index Futures ? How?

Collect the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and London Hang Seng Index over time. Is the daily changes in Hang Seng Index related to the daily changes of the London Hang Seng Index Futures ?

Examples of Type B Project topics:On Finance


Collect the IMF debt of different IMF member countries. How is IMF debt borrowed related to national income?

Find the recent issue of Economist and Far Eastern Economic Review. Copy the newsstand price listed on the cover. Convert them into US dollars according to a recent exchange rate. Is the prices (in US dollars) related to the national income and price level of the countries? Are there any different between the two magazines?

Examples of Type B Project topics:On International Finance


Collect the trade volume of at least 30 country pairs (say, some OECD countries and some non-OECD countries) in 2001. Is the trade volume related to the ratio of GDP of the country pair?

Examples of Type B Project topics:On International Trade


Collect the government’s expenditure share on education as a percentage of GDP in Hong Kong in the past twenty years. Is the share related to GDP and youth population size?

Collect the government’s expenditure share on health care as a percentage of GDP in Hong Kong in the past twenty years. Is the share related to the dependency ratio (=[population under age 15 and above age 65] / [working-age population (those aged 15-64)])?

Collect government’s land sales revenue and deficit in the past twenty years. How is the yearly change in land sales revenue related to the government deficit as a percentage of GDP?

Examples of Type B Project topics:On Public Finance


Ask at least 30 HKU students how many credit cards they own. Summarize the data. Ask another 30 CUHK students how many credit cards they own. Is the number of credit cards related to age and the year of study they are in? Are there any difference between the two universities?

Examples of Type B Project topics:On Personal Finance


Visit at least 30 bakery shops. Record the price of “pineapple” and “chicken tail”. Also record whether they have a policy of price reduction after certain hour and their opening hours. Are the prices of “pineapple” and “chicken tail” related to the price reduction policy and the opening hours? (For interest: ask the shopkeepers what they do with the unsold bread.)

Examples of Type B Project topics:On Price Differentials


Records the secondary housing market transactions in the last 6 months and their housing attributes such as floor area, number of rooms, and club facilities. How is the transaction prices related to the housing attributes?

Visit the computer stores and copy the prices of notebook computers and their attributes such as memory, CPU speed, and hard disk space. How is the listing prices related to the computer attributes?

Examples of Type B Project topics:On Hedonic Price Equations


Buy one pound of vegetables from 30 shops . Note the characteristic of the shopkeeper such as age (guess) and gender. Weight the vegetables at home using the same scale. Record the ratio between the weight and one pound. How is the ratio related to the shopkeepers’ characteristics?

Go to a local store that sells CDs and record the prices of at least 50 recent CDs. Also record the total playing time for those CDs that display this information. How is the playing time related to price and other characteristics of the CDs?

Examples of Type B Project topics:On Price Differentials


Collect information about bus fare, journey time, etc. from the websites of bus companies. Is the bus fare related to journey time, journey distance, frequency, and whether it has air condition? Are there other factors that might have influenced the bus fare?

Collect information about MTR fare, journey time, etc. of all possible pair of stops from the MTR website. Is the MTR fare related to journey time, and whether the journey will pass through a cross-harbor tunnel? Are there other factors that might have influenced the MTR fare?

Examples of Type B Project topics:On Transportation Pricing


Collect information about KCR fare, journey time, etc. of all possible pair of stops from the KCR website. Is the KCR fare related to journey time, and whether the journey will stop at Lo Wu? Are there other factors that might have influenced the KCR fare?

Collect information about Light Rail (LRT) fare, journey time, etc. of all possible pair of stops from the KCRC website. Is the LRT fare related to journey time? Are there other factors that might have influenced the LRT fare?



Collect information about green light bus fare, journey time, etc. Is the green light bus fare related to journey time, journey distance, frequency, and whether it has air condition? Are there other factors that might have influenced the bus fare?

Collect information about ferry fare, journey time, etc. Is the ferry fare related to journey time, journey distance, frequency, and whether it has air condition? Are there other factors that might have influenced the ferry fare?



Collect information about Cathay Pacific’s flight fare, journey time, etc. from Cathay’s website. Is the flight fare related to journey time, journey distance, frequency? Are there other factors that might have influenced the flight fare?



Collect information about the tuition fee of kindergartens in year 2003-04 academic year (available online). How is the tuition fee related to length of school hours, class size, whether English speaking, etc.?

Collect information about the tuition fee of US universities and liberal arts colleges in year 2003-04 academic year (available online, for example, http://www.kiplinger.com/php/college/pubcollege.php3). How is the tuition fee related to class size and other factors?

Examples of Type B Project topics:On School Pricing


Find the auction price of vehicle license plate for the past 10 years. Is the auction price higher for lucky numbers and lower for unlucky numbers?

Find the auction price of government land for the past 10 years. How is the auction price related to the characteristics of the land (how it may be used, as commercial or residential)?

Examples of Type B Project topics:On auction


Collect the inflation and unemployment rate of OECD countries. How is inflation and unemployment rate related to each other (and possibly other variables as well)?

Collect the inflation rate and stock returns (based on Hang Seng Index). How is inflation and stock returns related to each other (and possibly other variables as well)? Is investment in stock a good hedge against inflation?

Collect the dependency ratio of at least 30 countries (say, OECD countries). How is the economic growth related to dependency ratio and education?

Examples of Type B Project topics:On Macroeconomics


Collect the 2000 Freedom Index from the Heritage Foundation. Is the economic growth between 2000 and 2001 of a country related to the Freedom Index and its economic growth between 1999 to 2000? Why and why not?

Examples of Type B Project topics:On Macroeconomics


Collect the number of suicide cases and unemployment rate in Hong Kong in the past 20 years. Is the percentage change in suicide rate related to change in unemployment rate?

Collect the number of robbery cases and unemployment rate in Hong Kong in the past 20 years. Is the percentage change in robbery related to change in unemployment rate?

Collect the fertility rate of at least 30 countries (say, OECD countries). How is the fertility rate related to GDP and education (say, measured as percentage of population with university education)?

Examples of Type B Project topics:On Labor Economics / Demography


Find all the Mark-Six Jackpot in year 2001 and 2002 (available from on-line). Does the payoff to the first prize per dollar investment related to be Jackpot size and other factors? Does the total investment related to the Jackpot size?

Examples of Type B Project topics:Miscellaneous


Find the quantity of water we buy from mainland China and the usage of water per capita in Hong Kong over time. Is the quantity we bought related to the population size and GDP? How about the actual usage?

Examples of Type B Project topics:Miscellaneous


Student: I do not want to do a survey. I prefer to download data. None of the topics interests me. What can I do?

Teacher: Try to look at the databases that are available at our library and on the internet. A useful guide is the Powerpoint file datacorner.ppt. Some of the data might interest you. You can also ask me for additional topics.

Frequently asked questions


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Briefing notes about Project BBriefing notes about Project B

Ka-fu Wong © 2003 Project B - 1 Dr. Ka-fu Wong ECON1003 Analysis of Economic Data.

Documents

Transcript of Ka-fu Wong © 2003 Project B - 1 Dr. Ka-fu Wong ECON1003 Analysis of Economic Data.