JWT AnxietyIndex: A Closer Look at the US Midterm Elections (October 2010)
24
ANXIETYINDEX A CLOSER LOOK AT THE U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS OCTOBER 2010
-
Upload
j-walter-thompson-intelligence -
Category
Business
-
view
1.367 -
download
1
Transcript of JWT AnxietyIndex: A Closer Look at the US Midterm Elections (October 2010)
ANXIETYINDEXA CLOSER LOOK AT THE
U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS OCTOBER 2010
AGENDABackground and methodology ........................................................................3
What’s making people anxious today? ........................................................4
The election’s tone and urgency ..................................................................18
2
BACKGROUND ANDMETHODOLOGYFor the latest installment of AnxietyIndex, JWT examined attitudes andbehaviors in the run-up to the midterm elections, looking for variations bypolitical affiliation.
Quantitative survey conducted by JWT SONARTM, JWT’s proprietary onlinetool.
Data collected between Oct. 18-25, 2010.
519 Americans aged 18+
Data are weighted by age, gender and income.
3
WHAT’S MAKINGAMERICANS ANXIOUSTODAY?
4
5
Overall, given everything that is going on in the world, the country, and your family’s life,how nervous or anxious would you say you currently are?
While anxiety remains high, an overall downward trend continues.
Anxiety is returning to pre-recession levels ...
month/year
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
002/03 05/03 02/04 08/07 05/08 08/08 11/08 11/08 12/08 02/09 03/09 09/09 05/10 10/10
(Pre- (Post-Election) Election)
•71•
79• 76• •
% Nervous/Anxious
% NotNervous/Anxious
54
70
80 82 8278 79
72 7670
30 29
2124
46
30
20 18 1822 21
28 2430
•
70•
• • • • • • •
• •• • •
•
•• • • • • • •
Food & fuel pricesbegin to spike
Barack Obama winsthe presidency
Immediate run-upto the war in Iraq
6
Overall, given everything that is going on in the world, the country, and your family’s life,how nervous or anxious would you say you currently are?
month/year
30
25
20
15
10
5
002/03 05/03 02/04 08/07 05/08 08/08 11/08 11/08 12/08 02/09 03/09 09/09 05/10 10/10
(Pre- (Post-Election) Election)
•
15
•
25•
17• •
11
26 25 2422 21
20
16
22
19
•
13
•
• •• •
• ••
Food & fuel pricesbegin to spike
Barack Obama winsthe presidency
Immediate run-upto the war in Iraq
... though a lingering group of Americansremain very anxious.
% VeryNervous/Anxious
7
ANXIETYINDEX MAP
SAFETY/SECURITY ECONOMIC
SAFETY/SECURITY ECONOMIC
FURTHERFROM
“HOME”
CLOSERTO
“HOME”
FURTHER FROM
“HOME”
CLOSERTO
“HOME”
Political Leadership
State of Economy
Cost ofHealth Care
Cost ofLiving
Job SecurityCrime
CurrentMilitary
Hostilities
PotentialMilitary
Hostilities
Threat ofTerrorism
Political Leadership
State of Economy
Cost ofHealth Care
Cost ofLiving
Job SecurityCrime
CurrentMilitary
Hostilities
PotentialMilitary
Hostilities
Threat ofTerrorism
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
198
383
13090
301
394
158
195
170
AnxietyIndex: % who are nervous or anxious/% who are not
8
Concern about the economy has decreased significantly, though credit isn’t
given to the current administration.
September 2009 October 2010
Overall, given everything that is going on in the world, the country, and your family’s life,how nervous or anxious would you say you currently are?
month/year
02/03 05/03 02/04 08/07 05/08 08/08 11/08 11/08 12/08 02/09 09/09 05/10 10/10(Pre- (Post-
Election) Election)
•213•
1011•
614
•
•% Very
Nervous/Anxious
270270
733
900
669
900
733
376
• 223•
••
•
• ••
Food & fuel pricesbegin to spike
Barack Obama winsthe presidency
Immediate run-upto the war in Iraq
Anxiety around the economy is down dramatically from the heights of two years ago.
1011
State of the Economy
9
AnxietyIndex: % who are nervous or anxious/% who are not
10
Overall, given everything that is going on in the world, the country, and your family’s life,how nervous or anxious would you say you currently are?
month/year
02/03 05/03 02/04 08/07 05/08 08/08 11/08 11/08 12/08 02/09 09/09 05/10 10/10(Pre- (Post-
Election) Election)
•
376
•
525
•355•
•213
194
669
376
488 456
300•
335
•
• •
•
• ••
Food & fuel pricesbegin to spike
Barack Obama winsthe presidency
Immediate run-upto the war in Iraq
Anxiety around the cost of living has similarlydropped dramatically from two years ago.
525
Cost of Living
733
% VeryNervous/Anxious
AnxietyIndex: % who are nervous or anxious/% who are not
The War in Iraq
The War in Afghanistan
The Housing Market
Food Prices
Bank Failures
The Stock Market
The State of the NationalInfrastructure
The Government’s Budget Deficit
Quality of Products Imported from China
Impact of Global Warming
Gasoline Prices
Unemployment Rates
Safety of the Food Supply
Natural Disasters
400
200
0
106156
263
276
265
129
160129202331
157
14698
101
AnxietyIndex: % who are nervous or anxious/% who are not
Worries are rising over the price of staple goods(while substantially off the peak of two years ago).
September 2009 October 2010
11
And over the next six months, do you expect that each of the following will get better, stay the same or get worse?
% who expect it will get “better” minus % who expect it will get “worse” in the next six months
And the outlook on most drivers remains pessimistic.
12
The current political leadership in your country
You and your family’s current job security
The housing market
The stock market
Bank failures
The state of the economy
The threat of terrorism
The rate of crime in your community
Military hostilities around the world
Potential military hostilities around the world
Unemployment rates
The cost of health care in your country
The cost of living in your country
Gasoline prices
Food prices
Your government’s budget deficit
WORSE BETTER-10
October 2010September 2009
More optimistic
More pessimistic
-15
-22
-128
-46
-7-5
-4-17
-17-20
-14-13
-23-21
-24-21
-17-11
-36-37
-36-33
-41-42
-40-37
-36-47
13
People continue to report moderate levels ofpersonal impact from the recession ...
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Haven’t Have
impacted impactedme at all me a great
deal
Intensity of Personal Impact from the Recession
No Impact Great Impact
On a scale of 1-10, where “1” means tough economic times haven’t impacted me personally at all, and “10” means tougheconomic times have impacted me personally a great deal, how would you rate yourself?
October 2010September 2009
14
... and to most, recovery still seems a ways off.
When, if ever, do you think the economy will start to get better?
60
50
40
30
20
10
02
9
19
41
I never considered It has already It will start It will start It will start I have no ideathe country to started to to get better to get better to get better when it will
be in a recession get better this fall in 2011 in 2012 or get better(2010) later
11
83
Economic Outlook: “The economy will get better ...”
%
6
23
42
THE TEA PARTY
15
16
There is a tricky element to predicting this election, as many Americans have yet to make up
their minds about the Tea Party ...
How much would you say you support or oppose the Tea Party movement?
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
29
48
Support Neither Support Opposenor Oppose
23
%
Total70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
12
47
Support Neither Support Opposenor Oppose
41
Democrat
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
3542
Support Neither Support Opposenor Oppose
23
Independent
58
38
Support Neither Support Opposenor Oppose
4
Republican70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
17
... though many feel familiar with the beliefs and goals of the movement.
How familiar would you say you are with the beliefs and goals of the Tea Party movement?
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
20
34
Very Somewhat Not Very Not At AllFamiliar Familiar Familiar Familiar
%
Total
29
17
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
17
35
Very Somewhat Not Very Not At AllFamiliar Familiar Familiar Familiar
Democrat
2720
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
19
42
Very Somewhat Not Very Not At AllFamiliar Familiar Familiar Familiar
Independent
31
8
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
34 36
Very Somewhat Not Very Not At AllFamiliar Familiar Familiar Familiar
Republican
1911
54
61
52
70
THIS ELECTION’S TONE & URGENCY
18
19
Republicans are more closely attuned to this season’s races ...
Percent who are following thisyear’s election more
closely than past elections.
54%
23%
25%
Independents
Would you say, for this year’s election, you are following the contests more closely, less closely or about the same as pastelections?
20
... and more likely to see this election season as particularly contentious, though high percentages of all voters feel this way.
Percent who say this year’s election is more
contentious than past elections.
66%
51%
46%
And would you say that this year’s election is more contentious, less contentious or about the same as past elections?
Independents
21
The laws that are being passed in this country
The amount I pay in taxes
The cost of food at the grocery store
The safety of the food at the grocery store
The safety of over-the-counter medications atthe drug store
The quality of cars/trucks/vans
The safety of cars/trucks/vans
The safety of prescription drugs at the drug store
The cost of cars/trucks/vans
The anger among Republicans is palpable, especiallyaround taxes and pieces of legislation. Democrats
feel more satisfied with where the country is today.
And over the next six months, do you think each of these will get better, get worse or stay the same?
6330
5720
3317
2524
2417
2316
2220
2224
%
If Republicans win(among Republicans)If Democrats win(among Democrats)21
13
% saying each item will get better
22
The laws that are being passed in this country
The amount I pay in taxes
The cost of food at the grocery store
The safety of the food at the grocery store
The safety of over-the-counter medications atthe drug store
The quality of cars/trucks/vans
The safety of cars/trucks/vans
The safety of prescription drugs at the drug store
The cost of cars/trucks/vans
And Republicans are far more worried aboutDemocrats maintaining control than Democrats
are about Republicans taking control.
And over the next six months, do you think each of these will get better, get worse or stay the same?
5379
4982
4565
2942
2537
2739
2639
3341
%
If Republicans win(among Democrats)If Democrats win(among Republicans)38
49
% saying each item will get worse
Political Leadership
State of Economy
Cost ofHealth Care
Cost ofLiving
Job SecurityCrime
CurrentMilitary
Hostilities
PotentialMilitary
Hostilities
Threat ofTerrorism
1000
800
600
400
200
0
23
AnxietyIndex: % who are nervous or anxious/% who are not
And this anger turns to anxiety, with outsizedRepublican anxiety about the economy and the
current Democratic administration.
Political Leadership
State of Economy
Cost ofHealth Care
Cost ofLiving
Job SecurityCrime
CurrentMilitary
Hostilities
PotentialMilitary
Hostilities
Threat ofTerrorism
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Political Leadership
State of Economy
Cost ofHealth Care
Cost ofLiving
Job SecurityCrime
CurrentMilitary
Hostilities
PotentialMilitary
Hostilities
Threat ofTerrorism
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Political Leadership
State of Economy
Cost ofHealth Care
Cost ofLiving
Job SecurityCrime
CurrentMilitary
Hostilities
PotentialMilitary
Hostilities
Threat ofTerrorism
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Democrats
Independents
Republicans
THANK YOU
www.AnxietyIndex.com
Mark TrussDirector of Brand Intelligence
JWT Worldwide
(c) 2010 J. Walter Thompson Company. All Rights Reserved.
Ann M. MackDirector of Trendspotting
JWT Worldwide
