JUNE 12, 2015 Weekly Insights - fbicgroup.com Global Retail... · design personalized shopping ......

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JUNE 12, 2015

Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) Publication: Retail Research Weekly Insights Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.

This week, FBIC NY attended Place 2015, a conference focusing on how location analytics and indoor positioning (i.e., beacons) can optimize merchandising and improve the customer experience

Facebook is launching a nationwide roll-‐out of free beacons called Place Tips that interact with people through their smartphones

Swedish fast-‐fashion retailer H&M plans to open a flagship store in India this fall, the first of 50 planned openings in that country

Private-‐equity firms are opening offices in Mexico to capitalize on opportunities from the country’s growing middle class

Weekly Insights

D E B O R A H W E I N S W I G E x e c u t i v e D i r e c t o r , H e a d o f G l o b a l R e t a i l & T e c h n o l o g y

F u n g B u s i n e s s I n t e l l i g e n c e C e n t r e d e b o r a h w e i n s w i g @ f u n g 1 9 3 7 . c o m

N e w Y o r k : 6 4 6 . 8 3 9 . 7 0 1 7

June 12, 2015

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JUNE 12, 2015


FROM THE DESK OF DEBORAH WEINSWIG This week in New York City, we attended Place 2015: The Business of Location, a unique occasion for retailers to learn about how location analytics and indoor positioning can optimize merchandising and

improve mobile strategy and the customer experience. Our colleague, Janie Yu, from Fung Capital USA, spoke on a panel about investment in this space.

This one-‐day event was filled with the latest updates on ibeacons, data privacy issues and the future of mobile consumer engagement.

Beacons are coming. More than half of the top 100 US retailers tested beacons in their stores in 2014. Between 2015 and 2016, beacon-‐triggered retail sales in the US are expected to increase by more than 1,000%, from $4.1 billion to $44.4 billion. A panelist from a Canada-‐based department store confirmed that his company has seen its best mobile conversion rate with beacons. The Bluetooth low energy–powered technology allows mobile apps to listen for and interact with signals from physical spaces. Imagine a world where retailers push personalized coupons to customers as they walk into stores, where retail apps can find and reserve parking spaces for shoppers, and where billboards in stores can detect information about customers and show them only items that are relevant to them. It’s all already happening!

The use of data transmitted by beacons is limited only by our imagination. Retailers can use beacon-‐powered analytics to improve their customer service via existing marketing channels. For example, stores can use information about customers to personalize newsletters and help sales associates better interact with them. With beacons and associated indoor-‐positioning technology, shopping malls can help shoppers design personalized shopping trips that optimize their time. Time is money for retailers: the time shoppers may waste wandering around looking for stores can be minimized and converted into potential sales. As one of the panelists said, “It is all about creating a better experience—the technology is in the background.”

Interestingly, panelists and speakers at the conference believe that data privacy is not a major concern for customers as long as the exchange of data is for a better customer experience, whether that means the right coupon at the right time or a personalized greeting from an in-‐store display.

Who’s going to be the next big player? And who’s going to pay for it? With Facebook announcing that it’s going to hand out free beacons to small and medium-‐sized companies and roll out its own location-‐based communications platform, it’s going to be interesting to see who will be the final disruptor in the space. Given their large numbers of active users, Facebook, Google, PayPal, Twitter and Amazon are all qualified candidates to push for mass adoption of beacon technology.

Can indoor positioning technology even be adopted without beacons? Yes…also possible. The largest mall developer in China, Dalian Wanda, is working with a company that uses magnetic-‐positioning technology without any external infrastructure.

Will 2015 be the year of beacons? We’ll see. But the effort to create a better shopping journey needs to be a concerted one among retailers, brands, data analytics providers and even social media platforms.

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JUNE 12, 2015


US Retail Sales Climbed in May Driven by Strong Auto Sales Figure 1. US Monthly Retail Sales Ex-‐Auto YoY %

Through April 30, 2015, Seasonally adjusted Source: US Census Bureau

• US retail sales grew at 2.7% YoY in May after a 0.4% growth in April. Warmer weather boosted

consumer spending.

• Sales from motor vehicles and parts dealers surged 8.2% YoY and clothing accessories sales increased 3.6%. Auto makers enjoyed the best sales volume in May since 2001, particularly in sport-‐utility vehicles and trucks.

• The March and April sales numbers were also revised up, which could result in a upward revision of 1Q GDP

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CHART OF THE WEEK

STAT OF THE WEEK

FBIC HAPPENINGS & WEINSWIG’S WATCH ING

• Inditex (parent company of Zara) reported 28% year-‐over-‐year net profit growth.

• The fast-‐fashion giant’s three-‐month sales ended April 30 represented a 17% year-‐over-‐year increase.

28% Source: Company report

• Last week, the FBIC New York team attended the Israel Retail & Marketing Technology Roadshow, where 11 retail-‐focused startups presented themselves.

• This week, the team in Europe attended the Ecommerce Europe Annual Conference in Barcelona, which focused on cross-‐border e-‐commerce opportunities within Europe.

• We also attended the Retail Tech Expo in Hong Kong. The show featured a variety of hardware for retailing—lighting, shelving, and product displays—but also some high-‐tech products such as facial-‐recognition systems, thermal people counters, and smartphone apps.

• Deborah Weinswig spoke at the New York Fashion Tech Forum on Thursday.

• Next week, FBIC New York will attend the Retail Innovation Conference.

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JUNE 12, 2015


US RETAIL TRAFFIC Figure 2. US Weekly Store Traffic: YoY % Change

Through June 6, 2015 Source: ShopperTrak

• Overall store traffic for the week ended June 6 plummeted by 8.3%. Last year in the same week, traffic

declined by 4.3%. Unusually cool weather in some parts of the US undermined shopper traffic.

• Apparel and electronics store traffic declined by 3.7% and 2.3%, respectively.

• Traffic should accelerate with Father’s Day coming up and with warmer weather.

US REGULAR GASOLINE PRICES

Figure 3. US Regular Gasoline Prices (USD per Gallon)

05/25/15 06/01/15 06/08/15 Week Ago Year Ago

US 2.744 2.780 2.780 0.000 (0.894)

East Coast 2.666 2.671 2.691

0.020

(0.942)

Midwest 2.655 2.694 2.677

(0.017) (1.015)

Gulf Coast 2.486 2.483 2.536 0.053 (0.882)

West Coast 3.487 3.444 3.377

(0.067) (0.618)

Source: US Energy Information Administration

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US RETAIL EARNINGS

Company

Revenues ($ Mil.)

Change YoY Gross Margin (%) Change

Net Income ($ Mil.) Change YoY Store Fleet EOP

Period 2015 2014 (%) 2015 2014 (BP) 2015 2014 (%) 2014 2013

Hudson's Bay* 1Q ended May 2 2,072 1,855 11.7 40.8 38.6 223 (54.0) 176 (130.7) 327 332

Lululemon 1Q Ended May 3 424 385 10.1 48.6 50.9 (230) 48 19 151.9 302 254

Men's Wear House 1Q ended May 3 885 848 4.4 43.2 43.8 (60) 10 17 (37.0) 1,758 1,128

Sears 1Q Ended May 02 5,882 7,879 (25.3) 35.8 23.2 -‐153.6 (303) (442) (31.4) 2,429 1,725

Vince Holdings 1Q Ended May 02 60 53 12.0 51.4 49.4 200 2 1 77.3 42 30

Source: Company reports * Hudson's Bay reported in CAD

US RETAIL HEADLINES Facebook Offers Free Beacons to Businesses and Tests New “Place Tips” System (June 9) BBC • Facebook started to roll out Place Tips, a system that allows businesses to interact with people

through smartphones, based on their location.

• Facebook has been experimenting with the system with over 100 businesses in New York City. It announced that it’s rolling out the system across the US.

Global Brands Group Names New President of Seven Global, a Joint Venture with David Beckham (June 10) Women’s Wear Daily • Global Brands Group has named Jason Weisenfeld as President of Seven Global, a new brand

collaboration with David Beckham and Simon Fuller. Weisenfeld has worked in various capacities with Coach, Net-‐A-‐Porter and Versace.

• Weisenfeld was part of the team that helped launch Victoria Beckham’s brand. The joint venture will build a series of celebrity-‐driven brands in fashion, food and electronics.

Online “US Made” Manufacturing Marketplace Maker’s Row to Open E-‐Commerce Store (June 8) Women’s Wear Daily • Brooklyn-‐based Maker’s Row connects American apparel manufacturers with small-‐to-‐medium-‐

sized and product-‐based businesses. Its CMO and Cofounder, Tanya Menendez, said the company is launching an e-‐commerce store this summer to showcase all kinds of products that can be made in the US.

• More than 20 states will be represented. The company recently received $2 million in funding and now employs 16 people. It’s currently working with brands such as Under Armour and Ralph Lauren to help them expand their manufacturing domestically.

Lands’ End Hires Top Talent from High-‐Profile Retailers (June 9) Women’s Wear Daily • Lands’ End, a brand spun off from Sears Holdings last year, has hired several executives from

upscale brands.

• The company just named Joseph Boitano, a former top merchant at Saks Fifth Avenue, as its Chief Merchandising and Design Officer. Scott Hyatt, former sourcing officer for J.Crew, will join Lands’ End as Chief Supply Chain Officer on June 29.

• Ian Velardi, who was recently with Bonobos, will lead the company’s design division.

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ASIA HEADLINES Voonik Turns Shoppers into Fashionistas, and It Just Raised Funding (June 10) TechinAsia • India’s Voonik, a fashion e-‐store, announced that it raised US$5 million in series A funding from

Sequoia Capital and existing investor Seedfund. The company had raised US$400,000 in seed funding earlier.

• Voonik also serves as a personal shopping assistant, suggesting clothes, accessories and footwear based on a user’s body shape, skin tone, lifestyle, budget and preferences. People can shop and mix and match from styles and products across other e-‐commerce sites such as Jabong, Fashionara and Zovi.

Chinese Parents to Edutech Startups: Don’t Waste Our Kids’ Time with Unproven Methods (June 10) TechinAsia • Chinese tech blog Techweb visited six gaokao test sites in Beijing and surveyed 145 parents. Only

eight of them, 5.5%, said their kids used online learning to prepare for tests, while 27.6% sent their kids to extra remedial classes.

• Parents told Techweb that while online education is cheaper than remedial classes, they aren’t confident it’s effective. Online courses don’t have the legacy and data to prove that their systems work, and parents don’t want to risk their children’s precious free time on experimental methods.

With a Simple Touch, This Gadget Analyzes Your Skin and Tells You How to Improve It (June 10) TechinAsia • WAY, a startup from South Korea, has developed a portable gadget that can monitor a user’s skin

condition and surroundings to provide an instant snapshot of the user’s skin health and tips for how to improve it.

• WAY comes with three sensors: one to check the current UV index, one to gauge humidity and one that performs a bioelectrical impedance analysis to read moisture content and estimate oil levels within skin tissue.

China’s Big Biotech Bet Starting to Pay Off (June 10) Channel NewsAsia • In April, scientists at Sun Yat-‐Sen University in Guangzhou published results of a groundbreaking

experiment to alter the DNA of human embryos using new CRISPR-‐Cas9 gene-‐editing technology.

• More than 50 Chinese institutions are patenting in the field, led by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, universities, the Anhui Academy of Agricultural Sciences and Beijing Jifulin Biotech. Nearly a fifth of the 518 families of gene-‐editing patents analyzed since 2004 were associated with Chinese entities.

Sony Aims for More Clients, 20% Sales Growth in Image Sensors (June 9) Channel NewsAsia • Sensors have emerged as one of Sony’s strongest products in recent years even as its TV and

mobile operations have struggled. While the company has fallen behind Apple and Samsung in smartphones, its sensors are used in those rivals’ handsets.

• Tomoyuki Suzuki, head of Sony’s device solutions business, which includes image sensors (chips that convert optical images to electronic signals), said he expected sensor sales to grow by about ¥100 billion (US$804 million), to ¥550 billion, in the year ending March.

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Hong Kong Startup Equips Self-‐Storage Companies for the On-‐Demand Economy (June 9) TechinAsia • Valet storage lets customers request that a van come directly to their home or office to pick up

items and take them to storage, and then return them to their doorstep when needed. In contrast, traditional self-‐storage companies require customers to bring items to the storage unit themselves.

• “The on-‐demand model gives traditional companies an opportunity to reach a new customer base, potentially customers who don’t necessarily want a whole unit or don’t have the transportation ability,” Miles Davison, cofounder of StuffGenie says.

EUROPEAN RETAIL EARNINGS

Company

Revenues ($ Mil.)

Change YoY Gross Margin (%) Change

Net Income ($ Mil.) Change YoY Store Fleet EOP

Period 2015 2014 (%) 2015 2014 (BP) 2015 2014 (%) 2014 2013

Boohoo ** FY Ended Feb. 30 140 110

27.4 60.8 59.1 170

8 8 (0.3) NA NA

Inditex SA* 1Q Ended Apr. 30 4,374 3,748

16.7 59.4 58.9 50

523 408 28.2 6,746 6,393

J Sainsbury ** FY Ended Mar 14 26,122 26,328

(0.8) NA NA -‐4976.1 (72) 898 (108.0) 1,304 1,203

Source: Company reports * reported in EUR ** reported in GBP

EUROPEAN RETAIL HEADLINES Apple Pay to Launch in UK (June 8) Retail-‐Week.com • Apple’s new payment system will launch in the UK in July 2015. Major retailers such as New Look,

Marks & Spencer and Waitrose have already signed up for Apple Pay. Numerous UK companies are said to be working closely with Apple to develop apps for the Apple Watch, too.

• Transport for London will also accept Apple Pay.

Luxury Fashion Brands to Join Forces and Challenge Amazon (June 8) BusinessofFashion.com • Richemont, the parent company of brands such as Chloé and Net-‐A-‐Porter, is in talks with luxury

groups LVMH and Kering about building a luxury retail website large enough to challenge Amazon.

• This comes after Net-‐A-‐Porter merged with Italian e-‐tailer YOOX in March this year; the combined annual sales of the two companies total more than €1.3 billion (US$1.5 billion).

IKEA Takes Decisive Measures over Climate Change (June 4) Company Press Release • Swedish furniture manufacturer IKEA announced it will invest €1 billion in projects that will help

create a better climate.

• Many of these projects will focus on developing ways to generate sustainable energy. Since 2009, IKEA has invested €1.5 billion in sustainable energy; it currently owns 313 windmills and 700,000 solar panels. Within the next five years, IKEA aims to become a completely energy-‐neutral company.

Online Fashion Retailer Opens First UK Store After US Debut (June 8) RetailBulletin.com • UK fashion retailer Missguided will open its first physical store in the UK. The concession will

occupy a 39-‐square-‐meter space within the Selfridges department store in Manchester and offer a range of Missguided clothing, footwear and accessories.

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• The fast-‐fashion retailer also recently announced plans to open a concession in US department store Nordstrom.

Boohoo.com Performs Better than Expected After January Profit Warning (June 10) Company Press Release • After a profit warning in January, online fashion retailer Boohoo.com has reported a 37% rise in

group sales, to £41.3 million, in the three months ended May 31. Overseas sales grew by 66%, to £10.1 million, while UK sales were up 27%, helped by investment in marketing and promotional activities.

• Customer numbers rose by a third, to 3.3 million.

Boots Pharmacy to Cut 700 Jobs at UK Head Office (June 8) Company Press Release • High street pharmacy Boots will cut about 700 jobs from its head office in the UK. The move is

part of an extensive restructuring strategy to simplify the retailer’s operations. Boots currently employs a total of 60,000 people in the UK, around 8,000 of which are based in its UK head office.

• Boots President Simon Roberts said there are no planned store closures and that retail staff will not be affected by the cuts.

H&M to Begins Its Global Expansion with New Delhi Flagship Store (June 6) wgsn.com • Swedish fast-‐fashion retailer H&M will open a flagship store in India this autumn. It will be the

first of 50 planned store openings across the country over the next few years.

• The flagship will become part of Select Citywalk, New Delhi’s premium shopping center, and is the first step in H&M’s global expansion plan. The retailer also plans to open stores in South Africa, Taiwan and Macau.

Tesco Invites Selected Companies to Bid for Homeplus Business (June 9) RetailBulletin.com • UK grocery retailer Tesco is looking to sell its South Korean business unit, Homeplus, as it focuses

on its core UK grocery business.

• Homeplus has been valued at £4 billion and Tesco has reportedly invited about six companies to bid for the retail business. KKR, The Carlyle Group and CVC Capital Partners have been invited to bid for Homeplus, as have Hyundai Department Store, Affinity Equity Partners and MBK Partners.

Inditex Starts the Year in Style with 1Q Results (June 10) Company Press Release • Inditex, the Spanish retail group that owns Zara, has reported a 28% jump in net profits, with

core profit up 22%, to €895 million. Net sales leapt 17% (13.5% in currency-‐neutral terms), to €4.37 billion, compared with a growth rate of 11% in 2014.

• The fashion retailer opened 63 stores in 27 markets during the quarter, taking its count to 6,746 in 88 markets. It revealed plans to launch more online platforms for Zara in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macau by the end of this year.

Sainsbury’s Like-‐for-‐Like Sales Down, but Online Sales Look Promising (June 10) Company Press Release • UK grocery retailer Sainsbury’s reported a sixth consecutive quarter of like-‐for-‐like sales decline,

as sales fell 2.1% in its first quarter. Food price deflation and intense competition in the grocery sector were highlighted as contributing factors.

• Total retail sales for the 12 weeks ending June 6 were down 0.6% excluding fuel and down 2.3% including fuel, although the retailer’s online store has continued to grow after experiencing a record week of 256,000 orders.

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LATAM HEADLINES Brazil’s Inflation Rate Increases to 8.47% (June 10) Latin American Herald Tribune • Brazilian consumer prices increased 0.74% MoM in May, up 5.34% YTD and 8.47% YoY

• The January-‐May and YoY increases represent the highest inflation rates since 2003

• The major inflation drivers in May were food and beverage; the price of tomatoes increased 21.38%

Private Equity Bullish on Growth in Mexico (June 10) Financial Times • Private-‐equity funds General Atlantic (GA) and Actis (which is focused on energy) are both

opening offices in Mexico City

• GA invests 10–15% of its $1.5–2 billion annual investment capital, or $150–300 million, in Latin America, with $1.2 billion invested to-‐date invested in the region

• The firm sees opportunities in healthcare, financial services, retail and technology, due to Mexico’s growing middle class

Colombia Is Viewed as Top Retail Opportunity in Latin America (June 2015) BMI Research • BMI sees attractive growth opportunities in the mass grocery retail (MGR)

• MGR represents 45% of total grocery retail sales in Colombia, however BMI sees additional room to expand, as the non-‐organized sector represents more than 50% of the market

• BMI forecasts a 9.0% CAGR of MGR sales during 2014–2019, with the rate exceeding those of Brazil, Chile and Mexico

FEMSA: Cautiously Optimistic on 2005 (May 28) The Yucatan Times • FEMSA’s CEO Carlos Salazar is “cautiously optimistic” for 2015, especially in Mexico, despite

unfavorable exchange rates

• The company is pursuing an aggressive growth strategy by acquiring gas stations, where the state-‐owned monopoly has been liberalized

• FEMSA is also struggling amid a tax enacted in Mexico on sugary drinks last year

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EARNINGS CALENDAR

Sales (in Millions USD) EPS (in USD)

Company

Earnings Release Period Date

Consensus TY LY Actual

Consensus TY LY Actual Currency

Kroger Q1 15 Jun.18 33,497 32,961 1.22 0.98 USD

Rite Aid Q1 15 Jun.18 6,684 6,466 0.03 0.13 USD

Walgreens Boots Alliance Q3 15 Jun.24 29,518 19,401 0.77 0.75 USD

Hennes & Mauritz AB Q2 15 Jun.25 44,565 34,827 3.89 3.51 SEK

NIKE Inc Q4 15 Jun.26 7,667 7,425 0.83 0.78 USD

Ocado Group PLC FY 15 Jun.30 1,107 949 0.022 0.013 GBP

Alimentation Couche-‐Tard Q4 15 Jul. 7 7499 8.95 0.27 0.22 USD

Fast Retailing FY 15 Jul. 9 1665000 1380000 1286 887 JPY

Family Dollar Q3 15 Jul. 10 2727 2660 0.82 0.85 USD

eBay Q2 15 Jul.16 4487 4370 0.73 0.69 USD

VF Corp Q2 15 Jul. 17 2462 2400 0.36 0.36 USD

Google Inc Q2 15 Jul. 17 14253 12670 6.74 NA USD

Tractor Supply Q2 15 Jul. 17 1762 950 1.11 0.95 USD

Apple Q2 15 Jul. 22 48545 37430 1.77 1.28 USD

LVMH FY 15 Jul. 23 35458 40640 3.65 6.40 EUR

Kering HY 15 Jul. 23 5290 4747 5.07 4.41 EUR

Macerich Q2 15 Jul. 23 327 254 0.14 0.11 USD

Westfield Financial Q2 15 Jul. 23 8.9 8.7 0.08 0.07 USD

Facebook Q2 15 Jul. 23 3969 2910 0.47 0.31 USD

Brunkswick Q2 15 Jul. 24 1155 1139 1.03 0.95 USD

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EVENT CALENDAR

Event Location Date(s) FBIC Presentation FIT Gala New York, NY Jun. 15 Gap Analyst Day San Francisco,CA Jun. 16 London Technology Week London, UK Jun. 15–21 Retail Innovation Conference New York, NY Jun. 16–17 IDEAS Forum Los Angeles, CA Jun. 18 New York Fashion Tech Lab Demo Day New York, NY Jun. 18 Mobile Research Summit 2015 New York, NY Jun. 18 eTail Europe London, UK Jun. 22–24 Techweek Chicago Chicago, IL Jun. 22–28 British Retail Consortium Retail Symposium London, UK Jun. 22–28 NRF PROTECT Long Beach, CA Jun. 23–25 Altria Group Analyst Day Missouri Jun. 23 ICSC China Shopping Centers Marketing Conference Beijing, China Jun. 24–25

IoT Cloud World Forum 2015 London, UK Jun. 25–26 Sustainability Re.Hack London, UK Jun. 25–26 ICSC North American Research Task Force Summer Meeting New York, NY Jul. 10–11

Mobile World Congress Shanghai Shanghai, China Jul. 15–17

Omnichannel Retail Executive Forum New York, NY Jul. 16

Online Retailer Conference & eCommerce Expo Sydney, Australia Jul. 21–23

ICSC Next Generation Conference Miami, FL Jul. 26–28

NRFtech Half Moon Bay, CA Jul. 26–28 NRF International Trade/Supply Chain Summer Meeting Washington, DC Jul. 28

Colombiamoda Medellin, Colombia Jul. 28–30

NYC Intimate Apparel Market Week New York, NY Aug. 3–7

Magic Las Vegas, NV Aug. 17–19

NACDS Total Store Expo Denver, CO Aug. 22–25 Deborah Weinswig

CIO Retail Summit Scottsdale, AZ Aug. 23–25

Planalytics Back-‐to-‐School Outlook Online Aug. TBD

World Retail Congress Rome, Italy Sep. 8–10

BAML Gaming and Lodging Conference New York, NY Sep. 9

NRF Retail Leaders Dinner Dallas, TX Sep. 10

WWD Digital Forum New York, NY Sep. 16–17

ICSC Western Division Conference San Diego, CA Sep. 16–18

BAML Global Consumer & Retail Conference London, UK Sep. 16–18

E-‐Commerce Paris Paris, France Sep. 21–23

Dunkin Analyst Day New York, NY Sep. 30–Oct. 1

World Retail Congress Paris, France Sep. 30–Oct. 1

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Deborah Weinswig, CPA Executive Director—Head of Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre New York: 917.655.6790 Hong Kong: +852 6119 1779 [email protected] Cam Bolden [email protected] Sunny Chan [email protected] Marie Driscoll, CFA [email protected] John Harmon, CFA [email protected] Aragorn Ho [email protected] John Mercer [email protected] Charlie Poon [email protected] Kiril Popov [email protected] Stephanie Reilly [email protected] Lan Rosengard [email protected] Jing Wang [email protected]

JUNE 12, 2015 Weekly Insights - fbicgroup.com Global Retail... · design personalized shopping ......

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