July-August, 1980Vol. II No. 10

MISSILES, BOMBERS, MANPOWERSIX MONTHS OFPROGRESS.WASHINGTONINTERNATIONALREPORT

After six months of regularoperation, Washington Internation-al Report, a weekly radio series pro-duced in cooperation with the Jew-ish Institute for National SecurityAffairs, is showing substantial pro-gress, according to reports we havereceived from many listeners.

The Report has greatly expandedits program coverage, and now has alarger staff. Joseph Polakoff,Bureau Chief of the Jewish Tele-graphic Agency has taken over cov-erage of the State Department forWIR, and also is assisting on specialfeatures presentations for the radionews series. Polakoff reported ex-tensively from the Republican Na-tional Convention for WIR and as-sessed the foreign policy anddefense implications of the GOPPlatform.

Larry Gordon, a well known radiopersonality in New York city, andScott Shore, a former staff memberof the American Israel Public Af-fairs Committee, are covering de-velopments in New York city forWIR. Included in their reports is atimely account of developments atthe United Nations General Assem-bly.

Washington International Reporthas greatly expanded its radio linksto Europe and now has a cooperativeagreement with Radio Judaica inBrussels, Belgium. Special WIR re-ports will now be heard in Europeand reports from Brussels will be aregular feature on WIR.

In addition to hard news cover-age, WIR is preparing a number ofbackgrounders for WIR listeners.These include special reportage onthe plight of the Falasha Jews inEthiopia; Black-Jewish relations inthe United States; American de-fense policy and Israel's security;Jewish communities abroad (a re-cent report described the uniquecircumstances of the Jewish com-

Continued page 2

OUR STRATEGIC POSTUREStrategic Defense

The saying that the Soviet Unionand the United States both have thecapability of destroying each other17 times over has now become an oldsaw. It made no particular sense, asfar as our strategic defense policy isconcerned, when it was first uttered.It makes no sense now.

The purpose of our strategic de-fense effort is to deter a Soviet nu-clear attack. We have to be strongenough not to destroy the SovietUnion once or more often, but toconvince the Soviet Union that ourresponse to a Soviet first strikewould be such as would inflict on theSoviet Union what its leadershipwould regard as unacceptablelosses. It is when our defenses be-come less credible, when the Sovietshave reason to believe that they arethe dominant nuclear power, thatthe risks of a nuclear exchange be-come far greater than they would beif the strength of the two majorpowers is in balance.

Our strategic defense has foryears been based on the triad: land-based missiles, submarine-basedmissiles, and airborne nuclearweapons. What our defense plannersare increasingly concerned about isthat two of the three legs of the triad,our land-based and airborne de-fenses, are increasingly wobbly.

Our nuclear defense problem doesnot lie in a present imbalance offorces, but in one which is likely todevelop a few years from now. Thespecific future scenario which wor-ries these planners is a Soviet "sur-gical" nuclear strike which elim-nates our land-based missiles butresults in only minimal casualties.With our land-based missiles goneand our airborne defense ineffec-tive, the options left to the Presidentare to concede to the Soviet Union onthe issue that prompted the strike,or to order an attack with our sub-marine-based missiles, which arenot precise enough to hit anythingother than population targets. Thepresident would know that the Sovietresponse will be a devastating at-tack on our cities. What the Sovietleadership would gumbk is that the

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President would choose the first ofthese options, and would thus with-draw the United States from any rolein world affairs.

It is because of their concern withthis danger of American nuclearimpotence that defense plannershave urged that action be taken toarrest the clearly foreseeable de-cline in the effectiveness of our air-borne ahd land-based nuclear de-fense. That concern has beenreflected in recent Congressionaldeliberations which have focused onboth of these problems.

The Need for a New Land-BasedMissile Defense

For many years our nuclearstrategy has been based on the con-cept of "mutual assured destruc-tion." It was based on the notion thatas long as the Soviet Union and theUnited States kept their respectivemissiles trained on each other'scities, the "balance of terror" wouldcause each side to desist from a firststrike against the other. It was tomaintain this "balance of terror"that both countries agreed in SALT Inot to proceed with the developmentof anti-ballistic missiles.

It is this balance which the SovietUnion is in the process of upsettingwith the development of its SS-18missile, a "counterforce" missile,which, when deployed, will be cap-able of being directed against ourland-based missiles and destroyingthem in their silos. As noted above,we could save these land-basedmissiles by launching them "onwarning," that is as the Soviet mis-siles approach but before they hit.However, because reports of the ap-proach of Soviet missiles could bemistaken, a launch-on-warning poli-cy is not considered an acceptableoption.

That leaves us with the dangerthat, as the Soviets perfect theircounterforce missiles, upward of95% of our land-based missiles couldbe destroyed in their silos by a Sovi-et first strike firing less than half ofits SS-18 missiles. To cope with this

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STRATEGIC POSTURE CONTINUED .

new threat, our defense plannershave developed the MX missile.

The MX system calls for the con-struction of 4,600 missile shelters inan array of "race tracks" whichwould connect these shelters. A totalof 20(Y missiles would be moved backand forth among these shelters,keeping the Soviets guessing as towhich shelters are filled and whichare empty. As the Soviet Unionwould not be able to target all 4,500shelters but only about half of them,the law of averages would assure thesurvival of a large enough number ofmissiles to discourage a Soviet firststrike.

This year's defense authorizationbills contain $1.5 billion for the MXsystem, which eventually will cost$33 billion.

The Need for a New StrategicBomber

The advantage of a strategicbomber aircraft based either in theUnited States or far away from thereach of Soviet interceptor andfighter aircraft, is its ability to beput on alert and into the air beforethe bomber force can be targeted.Unlike missiles that cannot be calledback once they are launched, thebomber represents an opportunityfor decision-makers to get the fleetairborne but call it back from itsmission should the warning turn outto be false. (At least three times re-

cently, America's early warningcomputer network produced falsealerts. If there were no strategicbomber system, a decision wouldneed to be made to launch or notlaunch our land-based strategicrocket force. Such a dilemma isavoided with an adequate bomberforce.)

Our present strategic bomber isthe B-52. B-52's were designed in the1950's for high altitude missionsagainst enemy strategic targets.The development by the SovietUnion of an in-depth, SAM-based,anti-aircraft system reduces severe-ly the probability that our B-52's canactually penetrate Soviet air de-fenses. Even during the Vietnamconflict, the B-52's suffered enor-mously high losses to Soviet SAM-2missiles - an early model in the So-viet air defense arsenal.

To try and give the B-52 fleet somecredibility, new practice air routeshave been opened up this summer inthe United States for B-52 exercises,where the huge machine will be fly-ing at altitudes as low as 300 feet.And the B-52's are getting upgradedelectronic counter measures sys-tems to try ta- deflect Soviet mis-siles. Even so, the workability of asubsonic B-52, leaving behind it vis-ibile smoke trails from its eight jetengines, invites questions about itsability to evade either missiles or

modern anti-aircraft guns. Its otherproblems are: (a) it can be detectedtoo easily on radar, (b) it is relative-ly slow, and (c) it is not equipped forthe electronic counter-measureswhich are now available. In addi-tion, low altitude flying in "bumpy"air will stress the already weakenedand aging airframes of the B-52's.Without replacements, the B-52's,operated for long in a low-altitudemode, may not last into the 1990's.

To supersede the B-52, the AirForce some years ago proposed con-struction of a bomber capable ofpenetrating the Soviet air defensesystem, the B-i. Prototype models ofthe plane were built and were testedsuccessfully. Construction of thebomber was, however, '. inceled byPresident Carter in 1977.

But the need for a new bomberhas, as indicated, not disappeared.Congress has now been grapplingwith the problem but has not as yetcome up with a solution. There istalk of reviving plans for the B-I,possibly with some modifications.Another possibility, endorsed by theHouse of Representatives, is to builda strategic weapons launcher air-craft, designed not to penetrate So-viet airspace, but capable of launch-ing from a "safe area" cruisemissiles directed at fixed targets inthe Soviet Union. The Senate favorsa penetrating bomber and has calledupon the Pentagon to undertake an-other study and come up with a clearproposal in the next six months. TheHouse has now agreed to the Senate-backed proposal.

It is now evident that the problemof strategic air capability is notgoing away. A decision in 1981 ismost likely.

Our Conventional Defense EffortMilitary Manpower

The JINSA Newsletter has hereto-fore called attention to the seriouslosses of trained pilots and techni-cians which our military forces aresustaining daily as personnel leavesupon the expiration of tours of dutyto take substantially higher-payingjobs in the civilian sector. One of thegreatest needs of our military,amenable to a "quick fix", is, there-fore, a substantial increase in pay.The Senate has taken a first step inthat direction by approving an 11.7%increase in military compensation,at a total cost of close to $1 billion.The Senate pay increase has beenaccepted by a House-Senate Confer-ence Committee. It is hoped that en-actment of this increase will stop thehemorrhaging, but it will by nomeans be a cure. A recent Congres-sional Budget Office study has, infact, concluded that this year's payadjustment is still insufficient tosolve the problem presented by thepresent manpower drain on the mil-itary services.

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VA SOVIET TU-26 BACKFIRE BOMBER

It is supersonic, intercontinental, carries nuclear, conventional weapons and missiles.200 are now in service. It is a threat in the Persian Gulf and Middle East, flying from southern Russia.

WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL REPORTcontinued...

munity in Cuba); and reports on thestatus of the Jewish community in-side the Soviet Union.

WIR features regular live reportsfrom Israel as part of its news pro-gramming. Israeli correspondentAmir Oren presents a weekly reviewof key political events in Israel aswell as an assessment of develop-ments in the autonomy talks be-tween Israel and Egypt. Oren is atop editorial writer for Israel'snewspaper Davar, and frequently isheard on Israeli radio shows.

In addition to its in-depth back-gro6unders, and its summaryof news

of the week, WIR has scooped inter-national news services on a numberof occasions. WIR was the first toreport on the probability of the res-ignation of Ezer Weizman fromPrime Minister Begin's cabinet; thefirst radio news program in theUnited States to report on the deli-very of the "Isis" nuclear reactor toIraq; the first to announce Israel'snew fighter plane program, theLavi; and one of the first to report oninternal problems inside Syria.

Washington International Reportis currently on the air in Cleveland,

Dallas, San Francisco, Pittsburgh,Boston and New York. Other outletsfor WIR are planned for early fall.

Anchorman and Producer DavidRosenstein is responsible for prod-uction of WIR. The Washington Jew-ish Week said of Rosenstein: "Ro-senstein. . . delivers a cogentroundup of global events significantto the Jewish community in a voiceof excellent timbre. Within the com-pass of a ten-minute presentation,WIR is a surprisingly comprehen-sive package... Rosenstein rangedquickly over a multitude of topicswithout overt editorial bias, in alively and informative review. TheWIR. correspondent were equally

succinct, offering vital aspects of thenews which the daily papers tend todiminish or ignore."

For information about WIRreaders are directed to get in touchwith David Rosenstein, either bywriting the Institute, or calling (703)573-7192.

SPEAKERS SERIESJINSA provides

experienced speakerson national

defense subjectsCALL 301-587-7999

. -FOR INFORMATION

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TWO OPPOSING SCHOOLS OF THOUGHTAND ISRAEL'S FATE

In the wake of the War in Vietnamtwo distinct schools of thought de-veloped among those concerned withAmerican foreign policy. Therewere some students and practi-tioners of statecraft who held to theview that the struggle between Eastand West was a matter of the past,that what we must concentrate onnow is the dialogue between Northand South, and, most importantly,the task of extending aid to thehave-not nations of the Third World.There were others who contendedthat as much as we may wish East-West contention to decline and ulti-mately disappear, this greatly de-sired development will not occur aslong as the men of the Kremlin arenot persuaded that it is in their bestinterest to make peaceful coexis-tence a reality rather than a catchyslogan.

This division of opinion on thebroad outlines of American foreignpolicy has been paralleled by thediffering attitudes of foreign policyexperts toward the Arab-Israeli dis-pute. An advocate of the North-Southdialogue, such as Professor Stanley

ciates is recognized as having beendiscredited as far as its principalthesis is concerned. Yet, the MiddleEastern offshoot of that policy liveson. Election year politics, we aretold, prevents the State Departmentfrom continuing its efforts of out-reach to the P.L.O. But beginning onNovember 5, presumably, we canexpect the dialogue with a Sovietclient organization to resume.

Supporters of a policy of accom-modation to the P.L.O. suggest thata United States-Israeli confrontationwill be inevitable after Election Dayin light of the divergent interests ofthe two countries. It is, therefore,important to stress that those whosee that divergence have been thevery individuals whose foreign poli-cy views have in the recent past beenproved to be disastrously wrong.

Professor Rostow and many ofthose who share his views of our rolevis-a-vis the Soviet Union, by con-trast, believe in the importance of aUnited States assertion of strengthin the Middle East, which might re-store the faith in us of the moderate

Hoffman of Harvard University, be-lieves that American recognition ofthe P.L.O. and commensurate pres-sure on Israel are important and in-tegral elements of an American pol-icy designed to win friends in theThird World. Former Undersecre-tary of State Eugene V. Rostow, themoving spirit in the creation of thepro-defense Committee on the Pres-ent Danger, argues, by contrast,that one of the most critical issues tothe security and economic viabilityof the United States and thus to ourrelations with all nations, includingthose of the Third World, is our abil-ity to keep the Middle Eastern oilfields out of the Soviet orbit. In thiscontext, he believes, Israel can playa highly significant geopoliticalrole, assisting the interests of theUnited States in the region.

Today, more than half a year aftera policy of years of accommodationto the Third World and the SovietUnion were crowned by the take-over of the United States Embassy inTeheran and the Soviet occupation ofAfghanistan, the school of thought ofProfessor. Hoffman and his asso-

Arabs, a faith badly shaken by thefall of the Shah. Whatever the rheto-ric of those moderate Arabs may be,their faith in America's resolvewould surely not be strengthened byU.S. policies which tend to weakenIsrael. On the contrary. Close colla-boration with Israel must be an es-sential element of our AmericanMiddle Eastern policy designed toprotect America's security interestsin that region. As Professor Rostowhas put it:

It will take a great effort on ourpart and on the part of our alliesto contain the Soviet rush for do-minion and restore a semblanceof order to the world political sys-tem. We should be pressing for-ward in that effort on a crashbasis.

... Israel is the strongest militarypower in the (Middle East). Herstrength is indispensable to anyprogram for restoring the region-al military balance. By necessityand conviction, Israel is the mostfaithful ally of the West in theMiddle' East.

Dover Delaware. Col. Al Guidotti,the commander of the 436th MilitaryAirlift Wing at Dover says that theC-5A Galaxy transport plane, thelargest in the U.S. inventory, is nowbeing used to airlift men and mate-rial to Egypt where the U.S. militaryis now conducting a test to deter-mine how fast it can build an over-seas air strip. This represents thefirst word on the Rapid DeploymentForce's approach to extremely li-mited facilities in the Middle East.Where there are no open bases orlanding strips, the U.S. will attemptto build them on the spot.

The C-5A was first manufacturedin 1968. It is about the length of afootball field and can carry 370 menor 100 tons of cargo. However, be-cause of problems in the wing struc-ture, U.S. C-5's are currently flyingunder restrictions. The maximumload is now 25 tons. However, Mili-tary Airlift Command is permittedto bring the load up to 50 tons with-out Air Force permission. The Lock-heed company is testing a new wingdesign for the C-5 and it is expectedthat by 1987 all the 77 C-5A's in theAir Force inventory will be modi-fied.

The C-5A was used to rush emer-gency supplies to Israel during theYom Kippur war. The "Galaxy" hasbecome part of modern Israeli folk-lore as a result of these missionsflown in 1973.

Washington D.C. The Rapid Deploy-ment Force will conduct a MiddleEast exercise before the end of theyear according to its Deputy Com-mander, Maj. Gen. Robert Taylor.About 800 troops will be involved.The two countries being consideredfor the exercise are Oman andEgypt. However, both countries areextremely sensitive to the presenceof foreign troops on their soil. U.S.Airmen stationed at Cairo West air-port are not permitted into centralCairo city in uniform and their pro-file is being kept very low, accordingto reports coming from the area.

Baghdad. The Soviet Union has de-livered to Iraq about 200 self-propelled artillery pieces made upmainly of 122mm and 160mm guns.This marks a change in Iraqi pur-chasing from towed artillery to theself-propelled type. The militarycorrespondent of the Israeli newspa-per Haaretz says that this change inpurchasing by Iraq represents aneffort on its part to stock weaponssuitable for an expeditionary forcecapable of moving to battlefields farfrom Iraq.

Moscow. Intelligence sources saythat the Soviet Union is working on asecond generation Backfire bomberwhich will have greater range andmore elaborate capabilities than theTu-22M/26M Backfire. The Backfireis the world's only supersonic heavybomber in regular service. (TheUnited States has built four proto-type B-i bombers, but none are inregular service and the programwas cancelled by President Carter in1977.) The new Backfire is intended,sources say, to have sufficient rangeto patrol the Atlantic and will proba-bly be used to support Soviet Navyoperations. Presently as many as 50Backfire bombers are stationed inOdessa, where they support the So-viet Navy in the Mediterranean andPersian Gulf. Reports in July indi-cate that the Soviets are now deploy-ing Backfires in the Far East for thefirst time.

El Salvador. According to reportsconfirmed in part by the PalestineLiberation Organization, the PLO isproviding material and traininghelp to leftist guerrilla bands in ElSalvador. A delegation from the so-called El Salvador RevolutionaryCoordinating Council recently metin Beirut with representatives of thePLO.

Cairo. William Beecher of the Bos-ton Globe reported in late June thatthe U.S. Sixth Fleet "is exploringthe possibility of an extensive exer-cise with the Israeli Navy and AirForce." Beecher's report later wasdenied by State Department sourceswho said no such plans were in theworks.

However, the idea does havemerit. With the Sixth Fleet cut inhalf and with the carrier John F.Kennedy on station in undermannedcondition, the need for additional airpower to protect the fleet is essen-tial. The U.S. Phantom squadron inEgypt is insufficient for that pur-pose, and is in any event tied down intraining exercises.

Moscow. Igor Belvayev, writing inLiteraturnaya Gazeta, says thatSaudi Arabia is disillusioned withthe United States and that the timehas come for the Soviet Union toopen diplomatic relations with SaudiArabia. The article by Belvayev rep-resents a renewed Soviet effort toopen relations with Saudi Arabia.Last year the Soviets published arti-cles complimentary of Saudi cul-ttee.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

NEWS BRiEFS

It is important to stress that those who see the

divergence between Israel and the United States

are the very individuals whose foreign policy

views in the recent past have been proved

to be disastrously wrong.

Damascus. A high ranking Sovietmilitary delegation was in Syriaduring July to work out the details ofa major new arms deal. Westernsources believe Syria will get thehighly advanced Soviet MIG 27fighter plane, new model tanks, newSAM missiles and other equipment.

The Syrians have been pushingthe Soviets for modemrn equipment inorder to erase the qualitative edge inair power and armor currently heldby Israel.

In exchange, it is expected thatPresident Assad will travel to Mos-cow in early fall to sign a FriendshipTreaty with the Soviet Union. Thetreaty has already been initialed ac-cording to news reports.

The Frech newspaper, Le Figaro,reports that the KGB is "takingroot" in Syria. "At least 500 Soviet(internal security) 'advisers' settledat Qatanah - a Syrian army mili-tary base south of Damascus inJune. This contingent represents anaddition to the 2,500 Soviet civilianand military experts already pres-ent in Syria." The newspaper alsoreports that after May, 1980, the So-viets began providing Syria withsupplies of sophisticated policeequipment.

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Writing in theAtlanta Constitution, AndrewBorowiec reports from the PersianGulf that Saudi Arabia is "lavishingmoney on its military machine inmind-boggling amounts. Saudi Ara-bia has the highest per capital mili-tary expenditure in the world: $2,000a year for every man, woman andchild, compared to $520 in the UnitedStates. The vast military budgetamounts roughly to $233,000 a yearfor every enlisted man of the 60,000-man force, not counting the 30,000man paramilitary National Guard.... This amount includes such frillsas expensive china for officers' messhalls, gold plated cutlery - as wellas pocket money of $1,100 a monthfor those who volunteer for officertraining schools.... (The Saudi newmilitary city, called King Khalid,near the Iraqi border) "is going tocost between $9 billion and $10 bil-lion. Octagonal in shape, it willhouse one mechanized and two ar-mored divisions - which Saudi Ara-bia as yet does not have."

Beirut. The PLO is receiving"dozens" more T-34 tanks from Bul-garia, a variety of sources in theMiddle East reported in July.

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THE JEWISH INSTITUTEFOR NATIONAL

SECURITY AFFAIRS"An organization whose timeshas come.... The Jewish Institutefor National Security Affairs hasalready contributed notably toAmerican public opinion."

-Washington Jewish Week

How does America stand towardIsrael? To read the headlines theimpression is Washington is seek-ing to dump Israel. Pressure onAmerica from oil producing coun-tries and Western Europe seems tobe dictating that policy.

But we need to look past theheadlines and the unfortunaterhetoric to understand the realstory.

The truth is America's strengthin the Middle East is weaker thanever before, while Soviet influenceand power are growing in the re-gion.

It is no secret that the SovietUnion now has the ability to moveits forces by land, sea and air rap-idly to the Middle East and PersianGulf.

Remember the 1973 EmergencyAirlift to Israel? Would it surpriseyou to know America does not havethe airlift she had in 1973? Theworld-famous C-5A's that came toIsrael's aid are flying today undersevere restrictions.

What applies to Israel also af-fects those pro-Western Arabcountries that depend on Ameri-ca's strength. Which is one of thereason many of them are backingaway from the United States.

And an important reason whyAmerica, trying to keep its influ-ence in the nervous Arab states, istrying to gouge massive conces-sions out of Israel.

The real news is that America istrying to buy time at Israel's ex-pense.

We can help to change that if wework for a strong America and astrong Israel. That is about the bestinsurance policy we can buy toprevent another war in the MiddleEast.

The mission of the Jewish Insti-tute for National Security Affairs isto bring to the attention of all citi-zens the critical facts of the presentsituation and to explain what needsto be done to improve our nationaldefense system. We are working toinform the American people on howIsrael can contribute to strength-ening America's position in theMiddle East.

The job is not an easy one. TheJewish Week of Washington said itis like David facing Goliath.

Our David needs your support.Your check will help us to carry for-ward our mission. The Jewish Insti-tute for National Security Affairs issupported wholly by concerned cit-izens across America.

The Board of AdvisorsSenator Rudy BoschwitzClifford P. CaseI.L. KenenProfessor Walter Laqueur

Eugene RostowEdward SandersGeneral John Vogt (Ret.)Admiral Elmo Zumwalt (Ret.)

Richard Schifter, PresidentSeymour AbensohnStanford AdelsteinRabbi Leon M. AdlerStanley BaruchStanley BerenzweigHerschel W. BlumbergWilliam BryenClement CaditzElliot H. ColeBrant CoopersmithHerbert A. FierstHoward I. FriedmanNorman I. GelmanDr. Leon GerberNathan GoldenMax M. Kampelman

Leo KramerSeymour LachmanMrs. Cecile LandrumMichael LedeenAllen LesserTheodore R. MannRobert B. MeyersburgRabbi Stanley RabinowitzMrs. Susan RolnickLyle S. RyterMrs. Betty SachsProfessor Seymour SiegelSaul I. SternBruno WeinschelRobert I. WidderDr. Stephen Bryen, Executive

Director

The Jewish Institute is a non-profit. non-partisan. organization..Contributions .to. th.e.institute are.tax deductible: ',' . .

11 1. . . . .. . . . .

NEWS BRIEFS

The Board of Directors

I