July 25, 2001 presents “Past, Present, and Future” Ed Kieser.
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Transcript of July 25, 2001 presents “Past, Present, and Future” Ed Kieser.
Weather TrendsWeather Trends
July 25, 2001
presentspresents
““Past, Present, and Future”Past, Present, and Future”
Ed KieserEd Kieser
Global UpdateGlobal Update
Recent PastRecent Past
Total Precipitation in InchesMarch through May 2001
Total Precipitation in InchesMarch through May 2001
Midwestern Regional Climate CenterIllinois State Water Survey
Champaign, IL
Total Rainfall in InchesJune 2001
Total Rainfall in InchesJune 2001
Midwestern Regional Climate CenterIllinois State Water Survey
Champaign, IL
Total Rainfall Departure in inchesJune 2001
Total Rainfall Departure in inchesJune 2001
Midwestern Regional Climate CenterIllinois State Water Survey
Champaign, IL
Total Rainfall in InchesJuly 1-24, 2001
Total Rainfall in InchesJuly 1-24, 2001
Midwestern Regional Climate CenterIllinois State Water Survey
Champaign, IL
Total Rainfall Percent of MeanJuly 1-24, 2001
Total Rainfall Percent of MeanJuly 1-24, 2001
Midwestern Regional Climate CenterIllinois State Water Survey
Champaign, IL
Total Rainfall in InchesJuly 18-24, 2001
Total Rainfall in InchesJuly 18-24, 2001
Midwestern Regional Climate CenterIllinois State Water Survey
Champaign, IL
Total Rainfall Departure in InchesJuly 18-24, 2001
Total Rainfall Departure in InchesJuly 18-24, 2001
Midwestern Regional Climate CenterIllinois State Water Survey
Champaign, IL
Dry
Dry
Dry
Dry
Current SituationCurrent Situation
Current SituationCurrent Situation ExtremeExtreme
Variability!Variability!
Palmer Drought Severity IndexPalmer Drought Severity Index
Crop Moisture IndexCrop Moisture Index
Current Drought AssessmentCurrent Drought Assessment
National Weather Service PredictionNational Weather Service Prediction
Soil MoistureSoil Moisture
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Surplus Adequate Short Very Short
Statewide
Northeast
Central
Soil MoistureSoil Moisture
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Surplus Adequate Short Very Short
Statewide
Northeast
Central
Soil MoistureSoil Moisture
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Surplus Adequate Short Very Short
Statewide
Northeast
Central
Corn ConditionsCorn Conditions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Good/Excellent
Fair Poor/ VeryPoor
Illinois
U.S.
U.S. Prev.
Corn ConditionsCorn Conditions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Good/Excellent
Fair Poor/ VeryPoor
Illinois
U.S.
U.S. Prev.
Corn ConditionsCorn Conditions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Good/Excellent
Fair Poor/ VeryPoor
Illinois
U.S.
U.S. Prev.
Soybean ConditionsSoybean Conditions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Good/Excellent
Fair Poor/ VeryPoor
Illinois
U.S.
U.S. Prev.
Soybean ConditionsSoybean Conditions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Good/Excellent
Fair Poor/ VeryPoor
Illinois
U.S.
U.S. Prev.
Soybean ConditionsSoybean Conditions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Good/Excellent
Fair Poor/ VeryPoor
Illinois
U.S.
U.S. Prev.
The Future?The Future?
Temperature OutlookJuly 31-August 4, 2001Temperature Outlook
July 31-August 4, 2001
Precipitation OutlookJuly 31-August 4, 2001Precipitation Outlook
July 31-August 4, 2001
Temperature OutlookAugust 2-8, 2001
Temperature OutlookAugust 2-8, 2001
Precipitation OutlookAugust 2-8, 2001
Precipitation OutlookAugust 2-8, 2001
Long-Lead OutlooksLong-Lead OutlooksLong-Lead OutlooksLong-Lead Outlooks
CL – Climatology – Chances are 1/3 CL – Climatology – Chances are 1/3 A, 1/3 N, 1/3 B.A, 1/3 N, 1/3 B.
A – Above Average.A – Above Average.N – Near Average.N – Near Average.B – Below Average.B – Below Average.
How to read them:
Long-Lead OutlooksLong-Lead OutlooksLong-Lead OutlooksLong-Lead Outlooks
Chance for “Above Average” Chance for “Above Average” increases from climatology by 10%.increases from climatology by 10%.
A – Odds for Above Average: 43 A – Odds for Above Average: 43 1/3%.1/3%.
N – Odds for Near Average: 33 N – Odds for Near Average: 33 1/3%.1/3%.
B – Odds for Below Average: 23 B – Odds for Below Average: 23 1/3%.1/3%.
Example: “10” around “A”:
Temperature OutlookAugust 2001
Temperature OutlookAugust 2001
Precipitation OutlookAugust 2001
Precipitation OutlookAugust 2001
Climate OutlookAugust-October 2001 Temperature
Climate OutlookAugust-October 2001 Temperature
Climate OutlookAugust-October Precipitation
Climate OutlookAugust-October Precipitation
Climate OutlooksTemperature
Climate OutlooksTemperature
Climate OutlooksPrecipitation
Climate OutlooksPrecipitation
Climate InfluencesClimate Influences
El Niño/La NiñaEl Niño/La NiñaEl Niño/La NiñaEl Niño/La Niña
ENSO: El Niño/Southern Oscillation.ENSO: El Niño/Southern Oscillation.El Niño: unusually warm water in El Niño: unusually warm water in
the eastern Pacific Ocean near the the eastern Pacific Ocean near the Equator.Equator.
La Niña: unusually cool water in La Niña: unusually cool water in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the the eastern Pacific Ocean near the Equator.Equator.
Some terms:
La NiñaLa NiñaLa NiñaLa Niña
Easterly trade winds strengthen, Easterly trade winds strengthen, causing more upwelling of cold causing more upwelling of cold water in the eastern Pacific Ocean.water in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
The reasons for the strengthening The reasons for the strengthening of the trade winds are still not fully of the trade winds are still not fully known. El Niño and La Niña are known. El Niño and La Niña are extreme phases of a naturally extreme phases of a naturally occurring climate cycle.occurring climate cycle.
Why does it occur?
Normal ConditionsNormal Conditions
Convective LoopConvective Loop
EquatorEquator
120ºE120ºE 80ºW80ºW
La NiñaLa NiñaLa NiñaLa Niña
Every 2-7 years. The interval Every 2-7 years. The interval between events is irregular.between events is irregular.
Maximum cooling of the Pacific Maximum cooling of the Pacific waters is generally observed waters is generally observed between December and February, between December and February, the same time period as the the same time period as the maximum warming during El maximum warming during El Niño.Niño.
When does it occur?
00
180180OO 150150OOWW 120120OO
WW 090090OOWW
00OO
55OOSS
1010OOSS
NIÑO - 4NIÑO - 4 NIÑO - 3NIÑO - 3
160160OOEE
NIÑO - 2NIÑO - 2
NIÑO - 1NIÑO - 1
Sea Surface Temperature AnomaliesSea Surface Temperature AnomaliesNiño 3
00
180180OO 150150OOWW 120120OO
WW 090090OOWW
00OO
55OOSS
1010OOSS
NIÑO - 4NIÑO - 4 NIÑO - 3NIÑO - 3
160160OOEE
NIÑO - 2NIÑO - 2
NIÑO - 1NIÑO - 1
Sea Surface Temperature AnomaliesSea Surface Temperature AnomaliesNiño 3El Niño El Niño El Niño El Niño
00
180180OO 150150OOWW 120120OO
WW 090090OOWW
00OO
55OOSS
1010OOSS
NIÑO - 4NIÑO - 4 NIÑO - 3NIÑO - 3
160160OOEE
NIÑO - 2NIÑO - 2
NIÑO - 1NIÑO - 1
Sea Surface Temperature AnomaliesSea Surface Temperature AnomaliesNiño 3El Niño El Niño El Niño El Niño
La NiñaLa NiñaLa NiñaLa Niña
La Niña ImpactsLa Niña ImpactsLa Niña ImpactsLa Niña Impacts
Bottom Line: There is little Bottom Line: There is little correlation between La Niña and correlation between La Niña and weather in Illinois, especially in weather in Illinois, especially in summer. summer.
There is a slight tilt in the odds There is a slight tilt in the odds toward a wetter than average spring toward a wetter than average spring (April through June).(April through June).
There is a slight tilt in the odds There is a slight tilt in the odds toward a cooler than average spring.toward a cooler than average spring.
Illinois:
El Niño ImpactsEl Niño ImpactsEl Niño ImpactsEl Niño Impacts
Bottom Line: There is little Bottom Line: There is little correlation between El Niño and correlation between El Niño and weather in Illinois, especially in weather in Illinois, especially in summer. summer.
Winters are often milder than Winters are often milder than average during a average during a strongstrong El Niño. El Niño.
There is a good chance of less There is a good chance of less snowfall than average during a snowfall than average during a strongstrong El Niño. El Niño.
Illinois:
Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal Oscillation
Know as the “PDO.” It’s a long-Know as the “PDO.” It’s a long-term ocean fluctuation of the term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean, with a cycle of Pacific Ocean, with a cycle of about 20 to 30 years.about 20 to 30 years.
What is it?
Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal Oscillation
Evidence suggests that the PDO Evidence suggests that the PDO switched to the “cool” or “negative” switched to the “cool” or “negative” phase in the eastern Pacific Ocean in phase in the eastern Pacific Ocean in 1999. 1999.
It appears that this will act to steer the It appears that this will act to steer the jet stream farther north over the jet stream farther north over the western U.S.western U.S.
The “warm” or “positive” phase appears The “warm” or “positive” phase appears to have lasted from 1977-1998.to have lasted from 1977-1998.
What is happening?
Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal Oscillation
Sea Surface TemperatureAnomalies - January 8, 2000
Sea Surface TemperatureAnomalies - January 8, 2000
Sea Surface TemperatureAnomalies - January 8, 2000
Sea Surface TemperatureAnomalies - January 8, 2000
Sea Surface TemperatureAnomalies - January 8, 2000
Sea Surface TemperatureAnomalies - January 8, 2000
Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal OscillationPDO Index:
Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal OscillationPDO Index:
+- - -+
Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal OscillationPDO Index:
+- - -+
42 65 49 62
Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal Oscillation
The average national summer The average national summer temperature ranking tends to be temperature ranking tends to be lower than average. lower than average.
Annual precipitation tends to be less Annual precipitation tends to be less in the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, in the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, southern New England, and West.southern New England, and West.
Trend toward more precipitation in Trend toward more precipitation in the northern Rockies, Oklahoma, the northern Rockies, Oklahoma, eastern Texas, and the Mid-Atlantic eastern Texas, and the Mid-Atlantic Coast.Coast.
Impacts - Negative Phase:
No Simple AnswersNo Simple AnswersNo Simple AnswersNo Simple Answers
The atmosphere operates on many The atmosphere operates on many time and space scales. They all time and space scales. They all influence the weather. influence the weather.
La Niña, El Niño, PDO, etc. do La Niña, El Niño, PDO, etc. do influence the jet stream (and the influence the jet stream (and the global scale), with the greatest global scale), with the greatest impact on weather near the Pacific impact on weather near the Pacific Ocean and in and near the tropics. Ocean and in and near the tropics. The impact is much reduced here. The impact is much reduced here.
Beware!
Time and Space ScalesTime and Space ScalesTime and Space ScalesTime and Space Scales Global Scale: More than a week. > 2000 Global Scale: More than a week. > 2000
miles. Longwaves in westerlies.miles. Longwaves in westerlies. Synoptic Scale: Days to more than a week. Synoptic Scale: Days to more than a week.
200-2000 miles. Fronts, highs, lows. 200-2000 miles. Fronts, highs, lows. Mesoscale: Minutes to hours. 2-200 miles. Mesoscale: Minutes to hours. 2-200 miles.
Thunderstorms, tornadoes, sea breezes.Thunderstorms, tornadoes, sea breezes. Microscale: Seconds to minutes. < 2 Microscale: Seconds to minutes. < 2
miles. Small turbulent eddies.miles. Small turbulent eddies.
ConclusionsConclusions
El NiñoEl NiñoEl NiñoEl Niño
It appears that an El Niño is It appears that an El Niño is forming in the Pacific Ocean for forming in the Pacific Ocean for this winter. Many will make this winter. Many will make forecasts accordingly. forecasts accordingly.
Remember, not all El Niños are Remember, not all El Niños are strong.strong. The last one was, so The last one was, so beware of hype! beware of hype!
A weak El Niño usually has little A weak El Niño usually has little direct impact on our weather. direct impact on our weather.
What to consider:
Final ThoughtsFinal ThoughtsFinal ThoughtsFinal Thoughts
All large-scale indicators heading into All large-scale indicators heading into harvest season are neutral. Shorter-harvest season are neutral. Shorter-range and smaller-scale events will range and smaller-scale events will dominate. dominate.
The hit and miss nature of rainfall this The hit and miss nature of rainfall this season will lead to high variability in season will lead to high variability in yields, even within counties.yields, even within counties.
Best decisions are still made by following Best decisions are still made by following shorter-term weather trends. There are shorter-term weather trends. There are surprises every year!surprises every year!
Looking ahead:
Tune toTune toIn-Depth Weather:In-Depth Weather: 5:35, 6:35, 7:35, 8:35, 9:35 AM5:35, 6:35, 7:35, 8:35, 9:35 AM and 12:35 PM Central Timeand 12:35 PM Central Time
Detailed Agricultural Weather:Detailed Agricultural Weather: 8:51 AM & 2:32 PM Central Time8:51 AM & 2:32 PM Central Time
Tune toTune to
www.will.uiuc.eduwww.will.uiuc.edu
Tune toTune to
Thank You!Thank You!
Tune toTune to
Thank You!Thank You!
Questions?Questions?