JULES-INFERNO in the Fire Model Intercomparison Project ......Introduction reMIP Results Human...

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JULES-INFERNO in the Fire Model Intercomparison Project Model performance and process evaluation Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon FireMIP contributors: Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Sam S. Rabin, Dominique M. Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Silvia Kloster, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Joe R. Melton, Tim Sheehan, Chao Yue Fire Limitation Framework: Ioannis Bistinas, Rhys Whitley, Chantelle Burton, Toby Marthews 27th June 2017

Transcript of JULES-INFERNO in the Fire Model Intercomparison Project ......Introduction reMIP Results Human...

Page 1: JULES-INFERNO in the Fire Model Intercomparison Project ......Introduction reMIP Results Human Impact Conclusion JULES-INFERNO in the Fire Model Intercomparison Project Model performance

Introduction fireMIP Results Human Impact Conclusion

JULES-INFERNO in the Fire Model

Intercomparison ProjectModel performance and process evaluation

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane MangeonFireMIP contributors: Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Sam S. Rabin, Dominique M. Bachelet, Matthew

Forrest, Silvia Kloster, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Joe R. Melton, Tim Sheehan, Chao YueFire Limitation Framework: Ioannis Bistinas, Rhys Whitley, Chantelle Burton, Toby Marthews

27th June 2017

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Fire In the Earth SystemAreas affected

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 1/16

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Introduction fireMIP Results Human Impact Conclusion

Fire In the Earth SystemAreas affected

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 1/16

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Introduction fireMIP Results Human Impact Conclusion

Fire In the Earth SystemAreas affected

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 1/16

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Fire and carbon

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 2/16

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Fire and carbon

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 2/16

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Fire and carbon

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 2/16

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Fire and carbon

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 2/16

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Fire and carbon

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 2/16

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Fire and carbon

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 2/16

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Fire and carbon

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 2/16

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Fire In the Earth SystemCarbon Cycle and Radiative Forcing

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 2/16

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fireMIPFire Modelling Inter-comparison Project

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 3/16

Benchmark overview

Focus on JULESperformance & firecontrols

Diagnose seasonalityperformance

Explore missinganthropogenic processes

Future fireMIP evaluations

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Introduction fireMIP Results Human Impact Conclusion

fireMIPFire Modelling Inter-comparison Project

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 3/16

Benchmark overview

Focus on JULESperformance & firecontrols

Diagnose seasonalityperformance

Explore missinganthropogenic processes

Future fireMIP evaluations

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Introduction fireMIP Results Human Impact Conclusion

fireMIPFire Modelling Inter-comparison Project

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 3/16

Benchmark overview

Focus on JULESperformance & firecontrols

Diagnose seasonalityperformance

Explore missinganthropogenic processes

Future fireMIP evaluations

Page 16: JULES-INFERNO in the Fire Model Intercomparison Project ......Introduction reMIP Results Human Impact Conclusion JULES-INFERNO in the Fire Model Intercomparison Project Model performance

Introduction fireMIP Results Human Impact Conclusion

fireMIPFire Modelling Inter-comparison Project

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 3/16

Benchmark overview

Focus on JULESperformance & firecontrols

Diagnose seasonalityperformance

Explore missinganthropogenic processes

Future fireMIP evaluations

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Introduction fireMIP Results Human Impact Conclusion

fireMIPFire Modelling Inter-comparison Project

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 3/16

Benchmark overview

Focus on JULESperformance & firecontrols

Diagnose seasonalityperformance

Explore missinganthropogenic processes

Future fireMIP evaluations

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fire ModelsTypes

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 4/16

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fire ModelsTypes

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 4/16

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FireMIP benchmarkingBenchmark Datasets

Plus some new ones

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 5/16

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Introduction fireMIP Results Human Impact Conclusion

FireMIP benchmarkingBenchmark Datasets

Plus some new ones

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 5/16

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FireMIP benchmarkingFire Benchmark Datasets

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 5/16

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FireMIP MetricsAll Metrics

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 6/16

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FireMIP MetricsNormalised Mean Error

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 6/16

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FireMIP MetricsSeasonal Comparisons

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 6/16

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Introduction fireMIP Results Human Impact Conclusion

FireMIP MetricsSeasonal Comparisons

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 6/16

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FireMIP MetricsSeasonal Comparisons

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 6/16

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FireMIP MetricsSeasonal Comparisons

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 6/16

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FireMIP MetricsSeasonal Comparisons

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 6/16

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FireMIP MetricsSeasonal Comparisons

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 6/16

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FireMIP Null Models

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 6/16

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FireMIP Null Models

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 6/16

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FireMIP Null Models

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 6/16

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Model Scores

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 7/16

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Model Scores

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 7/16

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Model Scores

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 7/16

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Model Scores

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 7/16

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Model Scores

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 7/16

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Model Scores

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 7/16

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Model Scores

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 7/16

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Model Scores

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 7/16

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JULES-INFERNO v obsOverall fire performance

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 8/16

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JULES-INFERNO v obsOverall fire performance

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 8/16

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It burns where it rains (a bit)Uni-modal relationship with moisture

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 9/16

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It burns where it rains (a bit)Uni-modal relationship with moisture

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 9/16

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It burns where it rains (a bit)Uni-modal relationship with moisture

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 9/16

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INFERNO Fire ControlsVegetation

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 10/16

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INFERNO Fire ControlsVegetation

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 10/16

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INFERNO Fire ControlsVegetation

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 10/16

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JULES-INFERNO v obsFire Emissions

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 10/16

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INFERNO Fire ControlsVegetation

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 11/16

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INFERNO Fire ControlsMoisture

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 11/16

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It burns where it rains (a bit)Uni-modal relationship with moisture

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 11/16

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INFERNO Fire ControlsMoisture

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 11/16

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JULES-INFERNO v obsSeasonality

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 12/16

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JULES-INFERNO v obsSeasonality

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 13/16

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Human Impact

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 14/16

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Human Impact

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 14/16

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Human Impact

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 14/16

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Human Impact

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 14/16

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Some things to work on...Areas for JULES-INFERNO to improve on

Burnt area in seasonal humid areas.

Delay fire season onset

Include land use fragmentation

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 15/16

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fireMIPFire Modelling Inter-comparison Project

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 16/16

World without fire.

Pre-industrial fire regime.

Pre-industrial atmosphericCO2.

Fixed 1700 humanpopulation density.

Fixed 1901-1920 lightning.

Fixed 1901-1920 climate.

Fixed 1700 land use.

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fireMIPFire Modelling Inter-comparison Project

Douglas Kelley, Stijn Hantson, Stephane Mangeon — JULES-INFERNO in fireMIP 16/16

World without fire.

Pre-industrial fire regime.

Pre-industrial atmosphericCO2.

Fixed 1700 humanpopulation density.

Fixed 1901-1920 lightning.

Fixed 1901-1920 climate.

Fixed 1700 land use.


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