Reflections on European Service Innovation Centre Conference and Slush 2014 for ISSIP 2015-02-11
Jstcrds issip workshop 20161107 v3
Transcript of Jstcrds issip workshop 20161107 v3
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05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 1
Cognition-as-a-Service (CaaS):
A Service Science Perspective
Jim Spohrer (IBM)Tokyo, Japan; November 7, 2016
JST-CRDS and ISSIP Workshophttp://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/JSTCRDS-ISSIP-Workshop-20161107-v3
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Today’s Talk• Tech Topics • Perspectives• Opportunities• Challenges
© IBM UPWard 2016
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Physics Chemistry Biology
Neuroscience Psychology ArtificialIntelligence
Engineering Management PublicPolicy
Education Design Humanities
Natural Systems
Cognitive Systems
Service Systems
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Brief History of AI
• 1956 – Dartmouth Conference• 1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds• 1981 – Japanese 5th Generation• 1988 – Expert Systems Peak• 1990 – AI Winter• 1997 – Deep Blue• 1997 – 2011 Real-World• 2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI• 2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute• 2014 – Watson Business Unit &• True North Brain Chip• 2015 – “Cognition as a Service”
on IBM Bluemix
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Intelligence Building Blocks
• Augmented• Science (Brains)• Design (People)• Business (Value)• Societal (Impact)• Interdisciplinary
• Artificial• Learning• Perception• Reasoning• Interaction• Knowledge
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1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055
Can better cognition-as-a-service help us be wiser?
Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator
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How fast is Artificial Intelligence approaching?
What might it look like?
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Computing: Then, Now, Projected
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2035
2055
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Courses• 2015
• “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.”• 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy• 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject
• 2025• “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.”• Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week
• 2035• “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.”• Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day• Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves
• 2055• “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.”• Most people have 100 digital workers.
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Reality 2.0 Service Platform: Smart to Wise?
Service Platform
CM2
P2
CM1
P1
100x
100x 100x
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“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better”
Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing
Energy Construction ICT Retail
Finance Healthcare Education Government
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Progression: Types and Models
Models (columns)Types (rows)
Task & World Model/Planning & Decisions
Self Model/Capacity & Limits
User Model/Episodic Memory
Institutions Model/Trust & Social Acts
Tool + - - -
Assistant ++ + - -
Collaborator +++ ++ + -
Coach ++++ +++ ++ +
Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++
tool
assistant
collaborator
coach
mediator
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Build: 10 million minutes of experience
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Build: 2 million minutes of experience
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Value Migration: Hardware < Software < Data < Experience < Transformation
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Thomas Friedman• “We are now standing at
an ethical intersection we have never stood at before as a species,” Friedman explained as he started to wind down his talk. “At the end of World War II, one country could kill all of us. Now, one person can kill all of us.”
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Moshe Vardi (Rice)
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Alexander Braun (CC)
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Alexander Braun (CC)
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In Summary
“A service scienceperspective considersthe evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation andcapability co-elevationinteractions, and their capabilities, constraints,rights, and responsibilities.”
Cognitive SystemsEntities
Service SystemsEntities With
CognitiveMediators
Add Rights &Responsibilities
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Come visit IBM Research – Almaden in San Jose, CA USA – monthly
university day!
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Definitions: Types of Cognitive System Entities(symbol and pattern processing systems)• Socio-Technical (Organization-based)
• Businesses• Cities• Nations
• Biological (Brain-based)• People• Animals
• Technological (Computation-based)• Embodied (Robot, Car, Device)• Virtual (Local, Cloud)
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MachineLearning
NaturalLanguageProcessing
HighPerformanceComputing
KnowledgeRepresentationand Reasoning
QuestionAnswering
UnstructuredInformation
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Design (Books)
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Business Value
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SocietalImplications
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Interdisciplinary• Disciplines: Breadth of disciplines to
tackle issues:• Psychology and cognitive science,
philosophy, design and art, public policy and management, law and regulations
• Systems: Professional associations to tackle industry and system issues, including novice to expert progression on tasks• Socio-technical system design loop
and smart service systems
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IBM Cognitive Build: Experiment• Tool• Assistant• Collaborator• Coach• Mediator
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Next generation cognitive curriculum
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I have…
Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?
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Learning to program:My first program
Early Computer Science Class:Watson Center at Columbia 1945
Jim Spohrer’s First Program 1972
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IBM Cloud Bluemix: Watson APIs are growing…
© IBM UPWard 2016
So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access
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What exists in 2016?
360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000
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Build: 10 million minutes of experience
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Build: 2 million minutes of experience
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Books
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Dedication: Douglas C. EngelbartFather of the mouse and augmentation theory
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But this stuff is still really hard…
© IBM UPWard 2016
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Policies
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Understand them…
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What might Reality 2.0 look like?