JPM_CLOs_in_the_new_year_2011-12-16_746026

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US Fixed Income StrategyUS Fixed Income Markets WeeklyDecember 16, 2011

Rishad Ahluwalia AC (44-207) 777-1045Maggie Wang (1-212) 270-7255J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Collateralized DebtObligations

We would appreciate your participation in ourCLO client survey, which ends today:http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/JPMCLOResearchSurveyQ12012

As the year draws to a close, we find ourselvesdwelling on many of the same issues that havebeen driving the CLO market over the last fewmonths. This is our final publication for the year,

and we update some of these trends and thank allof our clients for their readership

The EU summit heralded agreements to bringforward the ESM by a year and add IMFfunding, but the tte--tte really focused on tyingtogether EU fiscal policy. The new measures,while moderately positive, are mostly long-termin nature: treaty changes center on fiscalgovernance in the future. Peripheral debtdynamics still appear challenging: our ratesstrategists estimate that 299bn ($394bn) of sovereign debt principal will be due in 2012, with

198bn ($261bn) alone for Italy. S&Ps recent

negative outlook creates headwinds , if downgrades materialize for the core. All of thisadds up to the risk of spillover to broadermarkets and CLOs in early 2012

Jobless claims fell to a three year low this week,bolstering our economists view the US will avoida recession. Within macro scenarios, if there aremore CCC downgrades in loans this will be a riskfactor driving CLO performance next year,particularly for equity and BBs.

We provide a case study mapping subordinateOC cushion to CCC bucket for 357 US CLOs. We

define a cohort of cuspy CLOs based on thecriteria of 3.5-7.5% CCC bucket and 0 -4%subordinate OC cushion. About one-quarter(27%) of our universe falls within this grouping,which all else equal, indicates equity andsubordinates that may be at risk with future CCCdowngrades

There is also default risk as a driver of CLO parerosion, but a rapid acceleration in defaults is

unlikely, given backdated collateral maturities.We note our High Yield strategists expect a 2%default rate in 2012 as a base case, rising toroughly 5-6% in the case of a recession.

Finally, with some stabilization in broader creditmarkets, some of the value in CLOs has been re-emerging. For example, in secondary BBBstraded on top of loans back in early September,but now offer up to a 200bp spread premium

Exhibit 1: Global CLO Secondary Spreads &Recommendations

Spread to Libor or Euribor (bp) for originally-rated categoriesSource: J.P. Morgan. Note: 1. Between November 21, 2008 and December 9,2010, AA to BB spreads are estimated using simplified duration and other assumptions; thereafter, indicative spread levels are used. 2. AAA is weightedaverage pass-through spreads. 3. Our series represents mid-quality pricing insecondary trading.

Exhibit 2: Selected Euro-area peripheral sovereigndebt dynamics

Source: J.P. Morgan, Bloomberg.

Sector WAL(years)

CurrentSpread

Changevs 12/08

ChangeYTD

Change2010

Recommendation

US CLO

Super Senior 3-5 190 0 20 -20 Overweight

AAA 6-8 220 0 -10 -20 Overweight

AA 7-10 450 0 100 -130 Overweight

A 8-10 615 0 165 -398 Neutral

BBB 9-11 850 0 200 -784 Neutral

BB 9-11 1175 0 225 -1000 Neutral

Euro CLO

AAA 6-8 280 0 25 -70 Overweight

AA 7-10 750 0 150 0 Overweight

A 8-10 1200 0 500 -184 Neutral

BBB 9-11 1550 0 500 -386 Neutral

BB 9-11 2150 0 650 -506 Neutral

198

4933

13 60%20%40%60%

80%100%120%140%160%

0

50

100

150

200

250

Italy Spain Greece Portugal Ireland

bn Debt maturing in 2012 (left) Total Debt/GDP (right)


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Q4 2012 CLO Client SurveyWe would appreciate your participation in our CLOclient survey, which ends today:http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/JPMCLOResearchSurveyQ12012

CLOs in the new yearAs the year draws to a close, we find ourselves dwellingon many of the same issues that have been driving theCLO market over the last few months . This is our finalpublication for the year, and we update some of thesetrends and thank all of our clients for their readership .

European stress and spread volatility. Last weeks EUsummit heralded agreements to bring forward the ESMby a year and add IMF funding, but the tte--tte reallyfocused on tying together EU fiscal policy. Our Europeanrates strategists believe that the new measures, whilemoderately positive, are mostly long-term in nature:treaty changes center on fiscal governance in the future,and do not address the immediate crisis. For example,with regards to upsizing the EFSF/ESM, hurdles includethe requirement of unanimous approval of the 17 Euro-area countries, and in any case, recent statements out of Germany have been less than supportive. Peripheral debtdynamics still appear challenging: our rates strategists

estimate that 299bn ($394bn) of sovereign debtprincipal will be due in 2012, with 198bn ($261bn)alone for Italy (Exhibit 2). S&Ps recent negative outlook creates headwinds if downgrades materialize for the corecountries, France and Germany in particular 1 (Exhibit 3).Finally, based on Draghis most recent statements , it isstill not fully clear to what extent the ECB will fulfill alender-of-las t-resort role. All of this adds up to the risk of spillover to broader markets and CLOs in early 2012.

Macro scenarios and cuspy equity/subordinates.Jobless claims fell to 366,000 this week, setting a threeyear low (Exhibit 4), and bolstering our economistsview that the US will avoid a recession. This view isunderpinned by the Euro area successfully containing itsstress, a slide in inflation that restores householdpurchasing power, the provision of fiscal support by theUS and China (US payroll tax cut expected), and aturning inventory cycle. Outside China though, EM Asia

1 Flows & Liquidity: The threat from AAA countrydowngrades , Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and team,December 9, 2011.

Exhibit 3: Selected Euro area sovereign credit ratings

Source: Bloomberg. * Represents under watch; grey highlight: below IG.Outlook:NEG - negative outlook, POS - positive outlook, DEV - developing outlookand blank represents stable outlook

Exhibit 4: Initial jobless claims (000s, sa)

Source: J.P. Morgan, Dept of Labor.

Exhibit 5: Subordinate OC cushion (y-axis) versus CCCasset bucket (x-axis) for 357 US CLOs

Source: J.P. Morgan, Intex data as of December 1, 2011.

200

300

400

500

600

700

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

Typical 7.5% Excess CCC Limit

'Cuspy' Equity/BB


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continues to witness policy inaction, and Brazil just

posted slightly negative 3Q growth. Moreover, the dataseem to confirm that the Euro-area is sliding into arecession (our economists forecast a -1.0% contraction to3Q12). Within macro scenarios, if there are more CCCdowngrades in loans this will be an important risk factordriving CLO performance, particularly for equity andBBs. In Exhibit 5, we plot subordinate OC cushionversus CCC bucket for 357 US CLOs, to show thecurrent tiering. We define a cohort of cuspy CLOs,based on the criteria of 3.5-7.5% CCC bucket and 0-4%subordinate OC cushion as of November month-end (thedashed square). Based on this criteria, about one-quarter(27%) of our universe falls within this square , which all

else equal, indicates equity and subordinates that may beat risk with future CCC downgrades. Of course, there isalso default risk as a driver of CLO par erosion, but wesee a rapid acceleration in defaults as unlikely givenbackdated collateral maturities and the terming out of thematurity wall in loans. We note our High Yieldstrategists expect a 2% default rate in 2012 as a basecase, rising to roughly 5-6% in the case of a recession.

CLO valuations where are we now? We have left ourCLO recommendations unchanged since we moved to aNeutral on mezzanine and subordinates on September9th. With some stabilization in broader credit markets,

some of the value in CLOs has re-emerged. For example,AAAs now trade about 50-100bp+ wider than selectedhigh-quality benchmarks (UK RMBS, HG Credit, CreditCard ABS, Exhibit 6). Lower down the capital structure,BBBs traded on top of loans back in early September, butnow offer a circa 200bp premium(Exhibit 7). We remainNeutral BBBs, however, given the lack of liquidity andpotential fo r further spillover from macro issues, amongother factors.

Exhibit 6: US CLO AAA spreads versus comparables (bp)

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Exhibit 7 : US CLO BBB spreads versus comparables (bp)

Source: J.P. Morgan.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

D e c - 0

9

F e b - 1

0

A p r - 1

0

J u n - 1 0

A u g - 1

0

O c t - 1

0

D e c - 1

0

F e b - 1

1

A p r - 1

1

J u n - 1 1

A u g - 1

1

O c t - 1

1

D e c - 1

1

CLO AAA CDX IGUK RMBS US Card ABS

350

550

750

950

1150

1350

1550

D e c - 0

9

F e b - 1

0

A p r - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

A u g - 1

0

O c t - 1

0

D e c - 1

0

F e b - 1

1

A p r - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

A u g - 1

1

O c t - 1

1

D e c - 1

1

CLO BBB CDX HY S&P Loans


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Disclosures

Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an AC on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multipleresearch analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an AC on the cover or within thedocument individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that:

(1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subjectsecurities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectlyrelated to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report.

Other Disclosures

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