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Transcript of J.P. Morgan Thailand Conference - listed companyaav.listedcompany.com › misc › PRES ›...
J.P. Morgan Thailand ConferenceFebruary 5, 2015
Disclaimer
The presentation is dated the day it is given. The delivery of this presentation shall not,under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been no change in theaffairs of the Company since such date. The third party information and statistical datain this presentation have been obtained from sources the Company believes to bereliable but in no way are warranted by the Company as to accuracy or completeness.This presentation may not contain all material information concerning the Company andthe information set forth in this material is subject to change without notice.
These materials included herein that are not historical facts are forward-lookingstatements. Such forward looking statements involve a number of risks anduncertainties and are subject to change at any time. In the event such risks oruncertainties materialize, AAV’s results could be materially affected. The risks anduncertainties include, but are not limited to, risks associated with the inherentuncertainty of airline travel, seasonality issues, volatile jet fuel prices, world terrorism,perceived safe destination for travel, Government regulation changes and approval,including but not limited to the expected landing rights into new destinations.
This presentation is strictly not to be distributed without the explicit consent ofCompany’s management under any circumstances.
Thailand Market
• A decrease in number of tourist by 6.7% YoY resulted from the Martial law
• NCPO agreed to a proposal to waive visa entry fee for Chinese & Taiwanese from 9 Aug to 8 Nov 2014
• Continual increasing trend of LCCs, capturing 39% of the market (both domestic & international)
YTD2014: Tourists by nationality; East Asia & European still driven market
10.1 11.7 11.613.8 14.5 14.6 14.1 15.9
19.122.3
26.5 24.8
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Thailand’s Department of Tourism
Continual strong tourists arrivals in the last 11-year
57.466.3
76.188.3 90.5
14.0 17.7 21.9 28.2 35.0
24.4%26.6%
28.8%31.9%
38.6%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
All traffics LCC traffics LCC penetration
Growing LCC penetration based on AOT passenger traffics (million)
Source: AOT’s (December)
Source: Immigration Bureau, Police Department. (December)
SARS Tsunami Flood
H1N1 outbreak, red mob invasion
Suvarnabhumiairport closure
Bird flu
PoliticalProtest
CoupCoup
January - December
Nationality2014 2013 %∆
Number %Share Number %Share 2014/2013East Asia 14,561,527 58.76 15,911,375 59.94 -8.48ASEAN 6,620,231 26.72 7,282,266 27.43 -9.09China 4,623,806 18.66 4,637,335 17.47 -0.29Hong Kong 483,883 1.95 588,335 2.22 -17.75Japan 1,265,307 5.11 1,536,425 5.79 -17.65Korea 1,117,449 4.51 1,295,342 4.88 -13.73Taiwan 392,758 1.58 502,176 1.89 -21.79Others 58,093 0.23 69,496 0.26 -16.41Europe 6,156,132 24.84 6,305,945 23.75 -2.38The Americas 1,104,714 4.46 1,166,633 4.39 -5.31South Asia 1,251,558 5.05 1,347,585 5.08 -7.13Oceania 947,242 3.82 1,021,936 3.85 -7.31Middle East 593,000 2.39 630,243 2.37 -5.91Africa 165,595 0.67 163,008 0.61 1.59Grand Total 24,779,768 100.00 26,546,725 100.00 -6.66
(million)
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Began services from Bangkok to Phuket, Chiang Mai and Singapore with two Boeing 737 aircraft
Moved from Don Mueang Airport to Suvarnabhumi Airport
Received first delivery Airbus A320
Launched second hub in Phuket
All new Airbus A320 fleet
Moved back to Don Mueang Airport
Owned first aircraft in our book
Received first delivery of A320 sharklet
Launched Third hub in Chiang Mai
The World Best LCC’s OTP Flightstats
Business Overview• Shareholding structure:
• AAV’s Market Cap Baht 22,310Million (USD 685 Million)• IPO 3.70 Baht/Share, Par @ 0.10 Baht/Share (May 2012)• Thai AirAsia - leading low-cost carrier(“LCC”) in Thailand• Operates with all new 40 Airbus A320 (9M2014)• Hubs in Bangkok, Phuket, Chiang Mai and Krabi• Having low cost model with:
– Low air fares with no free frills– Point-to-point operation within 4 hours– Short turnaround time of 25 minutes– Young, single-class A320 fleet– High aircraft utilization of 10.7 hours (9M2014)– Low distribution costs as 80% sales through Internet– Economies of scale
• Strong partnership with AirAsia Berhad (Bursa ticker “AIRA”)
Key milestones:
2004
2007
2010
2011
2014
AirAsiaBerhad Management
Thai AirAsia(Opco)
Public
100%
45%
46% 54%
55%
AirAsiaInvestment
Asia Aviation(Listco)
2012
2009
2013
2014
Launched Fourth hub in Krabi
World’s Best LCC 6 Times, SKYTRAX
Note: Assuming 32.50 Baht = 1 USD 4
9M2014 Key Highlights• Soften load factor of 80% (-4 ppts YoY)
• Passengers carried at 8.8 million, up by 16% from prior year, whilecapacity increased by 22% YoY
• World’s Best Low Cost Airline for 6 years straight and Best Asian Low Cost Carrier’ for the 8 times by TTG Travel
• No. 1 LCC market in both domestic and international1
• Effect on intense competition, Average fare soften by 14% YoYto sustain load factor, causing RASK soften by 13% YoY
• Tight control on cost, CASK ex-fuel maintained at Baht 0.94 YoY,although CASK slightly raised by 1% YoY to Baht 1.67
• Sustained excellent on time performance at 92% (9M2013 : 93%)
• 40 aircraft as at 9M2014 (9M2013:31) with utilization 10.7 hrs/day
• TAA’s cash balance of Baht 4.4 Billion2 (net debt/equity 1.40X)
Note : 1 As of September 2014 (Resource : AAV, AOT and DCA)2 Including cash and cash equivalents, S-T investments, Investment in private funds.
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6 9 12 12 8 83 8 12
19 22 27 35 40 45 50 55 60
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
Boeing
Airbus
Fleet Plan
• 40 aircraft as of 9M2014• All A320s with single-class 180 seats
capacity
• Average age of 3 years 5 months(9M2014)
• As of 9M2014 – 28 operating leases– 12 finance leases
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Unit: Aircraft5-year fleet plan:
Confirmed expansion plan:Fleet profile:
• Planned 5 new deliveries in 2015F• 3 more deliveries in 1H2015 • 2 more deliveries in 2H2015
+5 +5+5
+5 +5
Route movements:
Additional frequencies: New destinations:
3Q14 • Chiangmai – Phuket (3rd ) (Jul)
• Bangkok-Khon Kaen (4th ) (Aug)
4Q14 • Chiangmai -Krabi (2nd) (Oct)
• Bangkok – Siem Reap (3rd ) (Dec)
• Bangkok –Sakon Nakhon(1st,2nd)(Oct)
• Chiangmai –Surat Thani (1st) (Nov)
• Krabi-Guangzhou (1st) (Nov)
Route Network
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As at end of: 3Q2014
No. of routes
- Domestic
- International
45
18
27
No. of daily flights
(Dom:Int’l -> 61:39)
202
Average fare* slightly on sideway
4.5 5.4 4.0 5.0 6.4
3.03.4
2.93.3
4.1
9M13 9M14 2011 2012 2013
Domestic International
7.5
+16% YoY
8.8
+27% YoY
1,9051,641
1,942 1,977 1,885
9M13 9M14 2011 2012 2013
-5% YoY-14% YoY
9,35811,042
9,19910,499
12,951
9M13 9M14 2011 2012 2013
+18% YoY
+23% YoY
Operational Highlights
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84%80% 80% 82% 83%
9M13 9M14 2011 2012 2013
-4 ppts YoY
Soften load factorRocketing Passengers carriedUnit: Million passengers
Continue expanding ASK Unit: Million Unit: Baht per pax
* Included fuel surcharge
6.9
10.5
8.3+1 ppt YoY
0.94 0.94 0.89 0.94 0.95
0.71 0.73 0.69 0.75 0.72
122.7 120.9 124.0 126.7 122.8
9M13 9M14 2011 2012 2013
Maintaining Cost Disciplined
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Revenue per ASK (RASK)
1.81
1.58
1.76 1.84 1.81
9M13 9M14 2011 2012 2013
Unit:Baht
Cost per ASK (CASK) and Cost per ASK ex-fuel (CASK ex-fuel)
-13% YoY
Unit: Baht
9M2013 Cost breakdown
1.691.65 1.581.67
CASK ex-fuel
Fuel Cost
Jet1 ($/bbl)
+1% YoY
SG&A,7%
Fuel,43%
Aircraft lease,15%
Staff,10%
Repair and maintenance,9%
Ramp and airport operation,8%
Guest service and distribution,5%
Dep. & amort.,2%
9M2014 Cost breakdown
Fuel,44%
Aircraft lease,15%
Staff,9%
Repair and maintenance,8%
Ramp and airport operation,9%
Guest service and distribution,4%
Dep. & amort.,3%
SG&A,7%
Others, 1%Others, 1%
-2% YoY
1.67-1% YoY
1 MOPS Singapore
Ancillaries Enhancement
Strategies:
• Expanding “Fly-Thru” up to 138 flights
• Introducing more combos & add-ons purchases
• Adding more travel-related products
• Revamping website for higher ancillaries
conversion
• On-Board WiFi
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2,6603,147
2,6272,941
3,759
353 359 383354 358
9M13 9M14 2011 2012 2013
Ancillary revenue (Baht mil.)
Ancillary per pax(Baht)
+2% YoY
+18% YoY
+1% YoY
2015F Looking Forward• Seeing recovery as passenger traffic rebound
• Average fare will improve by 3-5%
• Average Jet1 fuel price will be in a range of $85-$95/BBL
• 5 additions in 2015F (FY2014: 40 aircraft being 28 OLs vs 12 FLs)
• 2015F targets of 14.5 mil pax with 83% LF (FY2014: 12.2 mil pax and 80% LF)
• Targeting ancillary revenue per pax at 371 Baht
• Refocusing on Domestic and Domestic hub to hub
• Enhancing connectivity within our network via fly-thru
1111
1 MOPS Singapore
Email: [email protected] : (+66) 02 5625745-6
Potential TAAX contributionBackground:
• JV between 49% AirAsia X in Malaysia (AAX)
and 51% Thai individuals
• Medium-haul LCC model flying 4-8 hours
• A330-300 fleet of 377 seats (365 seats
+ 12 flat beds)
• Connecting North Asia and Australia
markets to Don Mueang hub (DMK)
Updates:
• 2 aircraft in 2014 and take in 4 aircraft in 2015
• 1st commerce flight to Incheon on June 17th 2014
• 1st commence flights DMK-NRT and
DMK-KIX on September 2014
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1,371 870
4,726
3,104
3Q13 3Q14 9M13 9M14
5,595 5,559
16,984 17,479
3Q13 3Q14 9M13 9M14
297
(382)
1,535
(455)
3Q13 3Q14 9M13 9M14
TAA : Financial Highlights
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Unit: Million Baht
RevenueRevenueUnit: Million Baht
EBITDAREBITDAR
Net ProfitNet Profit3Q13 VS 3Q14 • Revenue slightly decreased by 1% due to a decrease in Avg.
fare, despite an increase in an ancillary income• EBITDAR margin soften at 16%(-9 ppts YoY) mainly from
lower revenue and a higher operating cost • Net loss at Baht 382 million due to an increase in aircraft
rental and depreciation in relation to fleet expansion9M2013 VS 9M2014• Revenue increased by 3% in relation to an increase in
ancillary income• EBITDAR margin dropped at 18% (-10 ppts YoY) due to a
higher operating cost • Net loss at Baht 455 million resulting from a rise in aircraft
rental and depreciation in relation to fleet expansion
-1% YoY
+3% YoY
->100% YoY ->100% YoY
-37% YoY
-34% YoY
Unit: Million Baht
158
(209)
820
(246)3Q13 3Q14 9M13 9M14
AAV : Financial Highlights
5,595 5,559
16,984 17,479
3Q13 3Q14 9M13 9M14
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Unit: Million Baht
RevenueRevenueUnit: Million Baht
Net Profit/loss (Parent)Net Profit/loss (Parent)
3Q13 VS 3Q14 • Revenue was at Baht 5,559 million (-1% YoY) • Net loss (Parent) was Baht 209 million (-232% YoY) • Basic Loss Per Share 0.04 baht/share
9M13 VS 9M14• Revenue was at Baht 17,479 million (+3% YoY) • Net loss (Parent) was Baht 246 million (-130% YoY) • Basic Loss Per Share 0.05 baht/share
-1% YoY
+3% YoY
->100% YoY
0.03
(0.04)
0.17
(0.05)3Q13 3Q14 9M13 9M14
Unit: Baht
Basic EPSBasic EPS
->100% YoY
->100% YoY ->100% YoY
TAA Statement of Net Income
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Unit: Baht million 3Q14 3Q13 Change 9M14 9M13 Change
Revenues 5,558.6 5,595.1 -1% 17,479.4 16,983.8 3%
Operating costs (5,618.7) (4,909.9) 14% (17,059.4) (14,271.4) 20%
Other income & gain on FOREX 281.2 181.9 55% 687.6 551.7 25%
Total SG&A (499.0) (418.6) 19% (1,372.8) (1,168.1) 18%
EBIT (277.9) 448.5 >-100% (265.2) 2,096.0 >-100%
Finance costs (87.1) (50.0) 74% (205.7) (113.6) 81%
Income tax (17.1) (101.2) -83% 15.8 (447.4) >-100%
Net profit/ Total comprehensive income (382.1) 297.3 >-100% (455.1) 1,535.0 >-100%
Earnings per share (THB) -8.77 6.83 >-100% -10.45 35.24 >-100%
Net profit margin -7% 5% -12 ppts -3% 9% -12 ppts
EBIT margin -5% 8% -13 ppts -2% 12% -14 ppts
EBITDA margin -1% 10% -11 ppts 2% 14% -12 ppts
EBITDAR margin 16% 25% -9 ppts 18% 28% -10 ppts
TAA Statement of Financial Position
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*Including cash and cash equivalents, S-T investments, Investment in private funds.
Unit: Baht million 3Q14 2013 Change
Cash and equivalents* 4,415.9 6,437.7 -31%Aircraft, leasehold improvements, Equipment-net
15,844.2 10,835.9 46%
Intangible assets 12.4 12.0 3%
Other non-current assets 802.5 817.6 -2%
Total assets 24,474.3 21,107.9 16%
Deferred revenues 4,791.6 4,299.2 11%
Finance lease liabilities 11,987.3 8,160.8 47%
Deferred tax liabilities, net 328.9 309.7 6%
Total liabilities 19,073.1 15,251.5 25%
Paid-up share capital 435.6 435.6 0%
Premium on share capital 2,628.8 2,628.8 0%
Retained earnings 2,336.9 2,792.0 -16%
Total shareholders’ equity 5,401.2 5,856.3 -8%
TAA Key Operational Statistics
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3Q14 3Q13 Change 9M2014 9M2013 Change
Passengers carried (million) 2.85 2.56 12% 8.78 7.54 16%
Capacity (million seats) 3.47 3.06 13% 10.97 8.97 22%
Load factor 82% 83% -1 ppt 80% 84% -4 ppts
RPK (million) 2,957 2,769 7% 8,870 7,934 12%
ASK( million) 3,553 3,282 8% 11,042 9,358 18%
No. of stages flown 19,280 17,018 13% 60,936 49,830 22%
Average stage length (km) 1,024 1,071 -4% 1,000 1,043 -4%
Average fare (THB) 1,592 1,842 -14% 1,641 1,905 -14%
RASK (THB) 1.56 1.70 -8% 1.58 1.81 -13%
CASK (THB) 1.72 1.62 6% 1.67 1.65 1%
CASK ex-fuel (THB) 1.00 0.91 10% 0.94 0.94 0%
AAV Statement of Comprehensive Income
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Unit: THB million ConsolidatedChange
Consolidated
Change3Q14 3Q13 9M14 9M13
Revenues 5,558.6 5,595.1 -1% 17,479.4 16,983.8 3%
Operating costs (5,621.0) (4,914.6) 14% (17,070.2) (14,287.6) 19%
Other income & gain on FOREX 281.2 182.0 55% 688.2 552.5 25%
Total SG&A (497.1) (422.7) 18% (1,369.9) (1,187.8) 15%
EBIT (278.3) 439.8 >-100% (272.5) 2,060.9 >-100%
Finance costs (87.1) (50.0) 74% (205.7) (113.6) 81%
Income tax (17.0) (99.9) -83% 21.3 (445.6) >-100%
Net profit/ Total comprehensive income (382.4) 289.8 >-100% (456.9) 1,501.7 >-100%
Net profit attributable to parent (209.0) 158.3 >-100% (246.4) 820.3 >-100%
Non-controlling interests (173.4) 131.5 >-100% (210.5) 681.4 >-100%
Earnings per share (THB) -0.04 0.03 >-100% -0.05 0.17 >-100%
AAV Statement of Financial Position
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*Including cash and cash equivalents, S-T investments, Investment in private funds.
Unit: THB millionConsolidated
Change9M2014 2013
Cash and equivalents* 4,419.4 6,439.8 -31%
Aircraft, leasehold improvements, Equipment -net 15,948.8 10,956.0 46%
Intangible assets 14,869.0 14,868.7 0%
Goodwill 8,824.8 8,824.8 0%Total assets 48,288.5 44,935.3 7%Deferred revenues 4,791.6 4,299.2 11%Finance lease liabilities 11,987.3 8,160.8 47%Deferred tax liabilities, net 3,323.3 3,309.7 0%Total liabilities 22,070.1 18,260.0 21%Paid-up share capital 485.0 485.0 0%Premium on share capital 2,599.8 2,599.8 0%Retained earnings 16,014.7 16,261.1 -2%
Equity attributable to parent 19,099.5 19,345.9 -1%Non-controlling interests 7,118.9 7,329.4 -3%Total shareholders’ equity 26,218.4 26,675.3 -2%
GlossaryLoad Factor = Represents the number of passengers carried as a proportion to capacity, which is the number of seats available for passengers (180 seats for Airbus A320)Available seat kilometers (ASK) = which is the total number of seats available on scheduled flights multiplied by the number of kilometers these seats were flownRevenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) = Revenue passenger kilometers, which is the number of paying passengers carried on scheduled flights multiplied by the number of kilometers those seats were flownAverage Fare = Calculated as Thai AirAsia's total passenger revenues and fuel surcharge divided by total number of passengers carriedRevenue per ASK (RASK) = Calculated as Thai AirAsia's revenues divided by ASKCost per ASK (CASK) = Calculated as the sum of Thai AirAsia's operating costs, selling expenses and administrative expenses (but excluding finance costs) divided by ASKCost per ASK (CASK ex-fuel) = Calculated as the sum of Thai AirAsia's operating costs, selling expenses and administrative expenses (but excluding finance costs) less fuel costs divided by ASKAverage stage length (kilometer) = Represents the average number of kilometers flown per flightAircraft Utilization = Represents the average block hours per day per aircraft during the relevant period. Block hours is calculated by measuring the duration between the time of departure of an aircraft and the time of arrival at its destination.On time performance (%) = A flight is deemed "on time" if the actual departure time is no more than 15 minutes of the scheduled departure time.
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