Joyashree Roy and Research Team

Joyashree Roy Joyashree Roy and and

Research TeamResearch Team

Global Change ProgrammeGlobal Change ProgrammeJadavpur University, Kolkata Jadavpur University, Kolkata

IPCC

Key message: climate change is a development issue and can be

solved

Res &building 8%

energy supply26%

transport 13%

industry 19%

agriculture 14%

forestry 17%

waste &waste water 3%

Res &building

energy supply

transport

industry

agriculture

forestry

waste &waste water

Source :IPCC, 2007

Projected climate changeDevelopment

path with HIGH base emissions

Development path with

LOW emissions

What should world do?

Mitigate

as well as

Adapt

Why talk of Adaptation ?

If we accept that warming will continue.

Likelihood? High chances

Current level of GHGs compared to preindustrial period is 430 ppm, safe limit is 450 ppm. CO2 alone 280 to 379ppm

Between 1970 and 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 70 %

Total GHG emissions

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1970 1980 1990 20002004

GtCO2-eq/yr

With current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next

few decades

• IPCC SRES scenarios: 25-90 % increase of GHG emissions in 2030 relative to that of 2000

• Two thirds to three quarters of the increase of CO2 emissions are projected to come from developing countries

• Average per capita CO2 emissions in developing country regions will remain substantially lower (2.8– 5.1 tCO2/cap) than in developed country regions (9.6- 15.1 tCO2/cap).

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F-GasesN2OCH4CO2

IPCC

• Temperature• 1C: 440 ppm Co2• 2C: 450• 3C:550• 4C:650• 5C: 750

• *preindustrial • Current 430

• Food +/- , water –• Food +/-, water -,

ecosystem-, extreme weather events -, irreversible impacts

Projected impacts of climate change

1°C 2°C 5°C4°C3°C

Sea level rise threatens major cities

Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions

FoodFood

WaterWater

EcosystemsEcosystems

Risk of Abrupt and Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Major Irreversible ChangesChanges

Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)0°C

Falling yields in many developed regions

Rising number of species face extinction

Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system

Significant fall in water availability e.g. Mediterranean and Southern Africa

Small mountain glaciers disappear – melt-water supplies threatened in several areas

Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs

Extreme Extreme Weather Weather EventsEvents

Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding, heat waves

Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions

Source: stern review

Mitigation is the best strategy

The lower the stabilisation level the earlier global emissions have to go down

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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

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d C

O2

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tC)

E: 850-1130 ppm CO2-eq

D: 710-850 ppm CO2-eqC: 590-710 ppm CO2-eq

B: 535-590 ppm CO2-eq

A2: 490-535 ppm CO2-eqA1: 445-490 ppm CO2-eq

Stabilization targets: Post-SRES (max)

Post-SRES (min) Equi

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GHG concentration stabilization level (ppmv CO2-eq)

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tC)

E: 850-1130 ppm CO2-eq

D: 710-850 ppm CO2-eqC: 590-710 ppm CO2-eq

B: 535-590 ppm CO2-eq

A2: 490-535 ppm CO2-eqA1: 445-490 ppm CO2-eq



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GHG concentration stabilization level (ppmv CO2-eq)Multigas and CO2 only studies combined

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Decarbonisation target

• 0.3%/yr historical rate

• Target O.6%-2.5% DC rate

• CO2 eq :50% below today’s level by 2050

• 2-3 times improvement over BAU energy intensity

Both Technology and Life style choice can solve this

Relative cost ?

What Technology can do

Science and Economics Says All sectors and countries have

reduction potential

Energy supply

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GtCO2-eq

Transport Buildings Industry Agriculture Forestry Waste

Non-OECD/EI TEITOECDWorld total

US$/tCO2-eq

Source : IPCC 2007

Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will have a large impact on opportunities

to achieve lower stabilization levels

Stababilization level

(ppm CO2-eq)

Global Mean temperature

increase at equilibrium

(ºC)

Year global CO2

needs to peak

Year global CO2

emissions back at

2000 level

Reduction in 2050 global CO2 emissions

compared to 2000

445 – 490 2.0 – 2.4 2000 - 2015 2000- 2030 -85 to -50

490 – 535 2.4 – 2.8 2000 - 2020 2000- 2040 -60 to -30

535 – 590 2.8 – 3.2 2010 - 2030 2020- 2060 -30 to +5

590 – 710 3.2 – 4.0 2020 - 2060 2050- 2100 +10 to +60

710 – 855 4.0 – 4.9 2050 - 2080 +25 to +85

855 – 1130 4.9 – 6.1 2060 - 2090 +90 to +140

IPCC

What are the macro-economic costs in 2030?

Trajectories towards

stabilization levels

(ppm CO2-eq)

MedianGDP

reduction[1](%)

Range of GDP reduction [2]

(%)

Reduction of average annual

GDP growth rates [3]

(percentage points)

590-710 0.2 -0.6 – 1.2 < 0.06

535-590 0.6 0.2 – 2.5 <0.1

445-535[4] Not available < 3 < 0.12[1] This is global GDP based market exchange rates.[2] The median and the 10th and 90th percentile range of the analyzed data are given.[3] The calculation of the reduction of the annual growth rate is based on the average reduction during the period till 2030 that would result in the indicated GDP decrease in 2030.[4] The number of studies that report GDP results is relatively small and they generally use low baselines.

•Costs are global average for least cost appoaches from top-down models

•Costs do NOT include co-benefits and avoided climate change damages

IPCC

How can emissions be reduced from the energy supply sector?

Sector Key selected mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available.

Key selected mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before 2030.

Energy Supply

efficiency; fuel switching; nuclear power; renewable energy (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bio-energy); combined heat and power; early applications of CO2 capture and storage (CCS)

CCS for gas, biomass and coal-fired electricity generating facilities; advanced nuclear power; advanced renewable energy (tidal and waves energy, concentrating

solar, solar and solar PV)

Potential share of global electricity supply in 2030 for carbon prices < US$50/tCO2eq:

•Renewable energy: 30-35% (now 18%)

•Nuclear energy: 18% (now 16%)

How can emissions from transport be reduced?

Sector (Selected) Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available.

Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before 2030. (Selected)

Transport More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; biofuels; modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems; cycling, walking; land-use planning

Second generation biofuels; higher efficiency aircraft; advanced electric and hybrid vehicles with more powerful and reliable batteries

Biofuel potential 2030:

•Depends on production pathway, vehicle efficiency, oil and carbon prices

•3% of global transport energy in 2030

•5-10% , if cellulose biomass is commercialised

•Caution: land and water availability, competition with food



Industry More efficient electrical equipment; heat and power recovery; material recycling; control of non-CO2 gas emissions

Advanced energy efficiency; CCS for cement, ammonia, and iron manufacture; inert electrodes for aluminium manufacture

How can emissions from industry be reduced?

•Potential predominantly in energy intensive industries.•Many efficient installations in developing countires•Barriers include slow stock turnover and (for SMEs) lack of financial resources, inability to absorb technical information



Buildings Efficient lighting; efficient appliances and airconditioners; improved insulation ; solar heating and cooling; alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and appliances

Integrated design of commercial buildings including technologies, such as intelligent meters that provide feedback and control; solar PV integrated in buildings

How can emissions from buildings be reduced?

•About 30% of projected GHG emissions by 2030 can be avoided with net economic benefit.•New buildings: >75% savings compared to current (at low to zero additional cost)•Barriers include availability of technologies, financing, cost of reliable information and limitations in building designs



Agriculture Land management to increase soil carbon storage; restoration of degraded lands; improved rice cultivation techniques; improved nitrogen fertilizer application; dedicated energy crops

Crop yield improvement

Forests Afforestation; reforestation; forest management; reduced deforestation; use of forestry products for bioenergy

Improved species and productivity; remote sensing systems

How can emissions from agriculture and forestry be reduced?

Agriculture: soil carbon sequestration ~90%

Forests: avoided deforestation ~50%

Effect of climate change < 2030: uncertain

How much would it cost?

• Stern review : stabilisation at 550 in 2050 : Cost of action 1% of Global GDP by 2050

: Inaction will cost 5% Global GDP

• IPCC: stabilisation at 535-590 in 2030: cost of action will be 0.2-2.5% of Global GDP

• But we will need to live with 2 degree rise in temperature

Proposed Research Revisiting our Life style

Climate Forcing Pollutants

DaysWeeks and Days

Decades and Centuries

LOCAL to REGIONAL GLOBAL

•Cooling Aerosols•Heating Aerosols(transport over long distances)

O3

CONOx

SO2

1.56 Wm-2 CO2 1

0.47 Wm-2 CH4 21

0.14 Wm-2 N2O 310

HFC 140Little now SF6 23,900

PFC Large

ParticulatesShort Lived Gases

(Protocol) GHGs

IPCC findings In 2004 developed countries (UNFCCC Annex I

countries) held a 20% share in world population and yet accounted for 46 % of annual GHG emissions. Their economies have a lower average GHG intensity (0.68 kg CO2eq/US$ GDPppp) than those of non-Annex-I countries (1.06 kg CO2eq/US$ GDPppp).

What can be a good benchmark needs serious scientific enquiry irrespective of development (wrongly reflected through GNP measure) stage.

IPCC allows development led emission for poorer section and assesses this to have marginal and tolerable impact.

Key challenge (for India)

How to integrate development policy options with climate policy options.

Jadavpur University

Thank you

Global Change Programmehttp://juglobalchangeprogram.org/

Joyashree Roy and Research Team

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