Jon Richter's Keynote ELD11
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Transcript of Jon Richter's Keynote ELD11
Emerging Strategic Innovations in Educational Leadership
Emerging Learning Design ConferenceJune 3rd, 2011
Jonathon Richter, Ed.D. University of Oregon
"It is possible to believe that all the past is but the beginning of a beginning, and that all that is and has been is but the twilight of the dawn.It is possible to believe that all that the human mind has ever accomplished is but the dream before the awakening.”
~ H.G. Wells
Just as all education springs from some vision of
the future…
all education produces some image of the future
~ Alvin Toffler
Increasingly fast-paced world
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity
Increasingly interconnected times
Increasingly complex issues
http://www.fredcavazza.net/2010/12/14/social-media-landscape-2011/
Future Time Perspective
(Seijts, 1998)
Extension: how far into the future does your active work extend?
Coherence: how organized is your future-focused thinking?
Density: how many thoughts about the future are active?
Directionality: how well are you moving along from present to future?
Affectivity: are you gratified about your progress toward the future?
From http://www.flickr.com/photos/9797495@N04/2230841530/
Time to adoption: One Year or Less
Electronic Books Mobiles
Time to adoption: Two to Three Years
Augmented Reality Game-based Learning
Time to adoption: Four to Five Years
Gesture-based Computing Learning Analytics
www.educause.edu/Resources/2011HorizonReport/223122
Gartner Report on Emerging Technologies, September 2010
http://digitalgames.playthinklearn.net/
Learning Sciences• Outcome-based courses• Deep learning• Fast formative feedback• Learning about learning• Expert personal help
Creative Possibilities• “on becoming” a course• Far learning• Active Participation• Learning as play• “The Scholar’s Journey”
Science Potential
The future is already here, it's just not very evenly distributed.
~ William Gibson
Culture adoption lags behind technological innovation
Ogburn’s Theory of Cultural Lag
Persistent Forecasting of
Disruptive Technologies
National Research Council 2009
Futures Studies is Dead.
Long Live Futures Studies.
learner analytics
virtual worlds
• Working up the Slope of Enlightenment• Collaborative work routines• Discovering and exploiting sweet spots
between design tensions
Using virtual worlds to illustrate images of the future:a continuum of infinite possibilities
all possible images of the future
dystopiasnightmares
utopiasvisionsscenarios:
downside
scenarios:scenarios:
upside
wild cards!
wild cards!
Image courtesy of Wendy L. Schultz: http://www.infinitefutures.com
Goodbye “Mediocristan”
Hello, Extremistan!http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp/1400063515
Which shall we drive through –
the grass or the trees?
Learning Technologies Ecosystem
mobilesocial networkslearner analyticsvideo gamesvirtual worldsnew learning management systemscloud-based services
Future-focused learning• Extend students time horizons (length)
• Develop cohesive goals, anchored to action (cohesiveness)
• Populate individual goal horizons (density)
• Give students agency (directionality)
• Give them real reasons to feel good about their own futures (affective)
= “high achievement orientation” (Seijts)
The future belongs to those who givethe next generation reason to hope
~ Pierre Teilhard de Chardin
http://www.educause.edu/EDUCAUSE+Review/EDUCAUSEReviewMagazineVolume46/InSearchofFutureFocusedLearnin/228663
Credits not appearing inline
• Global Internet Map: http://www.telegeography.com/telecom-resources/map-gallery/global-internet-map-2011/
• “Facebook: You’re Doing It Wrong”: http://www.worldcupblog.org• Gerard Seijts, “The importance of Future Time Perspective in theories of
work motivation”; Journal of Psychology: Interdisciplinary and Applied 132(2), pp. 154-168.