Joint Strategic Needs Assessment 2011-12
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Transcript of Joint Strategic Needs Assessment 2011-12
Joint Strategic Needs Assessment
2011-12
South Lakeland Locality Stakeholder Panel
Monday 14th November
Content• Introduction to the JSNA• Background & context• Demand on health and social care system• Long-term conditions• Mental health & well-being• Living conditions & health inequalities• Lifestyle & behaviours• Summary
Welcome• Welcome to the JSNA locality stakeholder panel• Purpose – to begin the process of developing an
enhanced JSNA for Cumbria• This is the responsibility of the Health and Wellbeing
Board• Plan to have this in place by April 2012• Feeds in to the Joint Health and Wellbeing Strategy
(June 2012)
What is a JSNA?
• Describes health and wellbeing in Cumbria• Describes strategic direction of services• Based on wide range of current information
and evidence• JSNA products, county and locality
narratives, online information
Who is involved?• Cumbria County Council• NHS Cumbria• Cumbria Intelligence Observatory• District Councils• Third Sector• LINKs• Probation, police and other partners
Why do we need a JSNA?• Current JSNA needs to be updated• Important role in the Health and Social Care Bill • HWWB role in Joint Health and Wellbeing Strategy
and JSNA• JSNA supports the Joint Health and Wellbeing
Strategy (JHWBS)• Commissioning Plans 2013 need to take account of
JHWBS
What are the challenges?
• Ageing Population
• Mental health and alcohol issues
• Health of children and young people
• Health inequalities
What do we want from you?
• Your ideas and feedback on the information presented
• Views on local needs and priorities• Information on local strengths and assets• Help to develop a local narrative for JSNA
Overall Deprivation Score
Source: Indices of Deprivation 2010
Health Deprivation Score
Source: Indices of Deprivation 2010
Life Expectancy
Life Expectancy Healthy Life Expectancy
Source: Office for National Statistics
Rurality England Cumbria South Lakeland
Urban > 10K - Less Sparse
Urban > 10K - Sparse
Tow n and Fringe - Less Sparse
Tow n and Fringe - Sparse
Village, Hamlet & Isolated Dw ellings - Less Sparse
Village, Hamlet & Isolated Dw ellings - Sparse
Source: Office for National Statistics, 2010
Rurality Aged 65+ England Cumbria South Lakeland
Urban > 10K - Less Sparse
Urban > 10K - Sparse
Tow n and Fringe - Less Sparse
Tow n and Fringe - Sparse
Village, Hamlet & Isolated Dw ellings - Less Sparse
Village, Hamlet & Isolated Dw ellings - Sparse
Source: Office for National Statistics, 2010
Barriers to Services & Housing
Source: Indices of Deprivation, 2010
South Lakeland Population
Source: Office for National Statistics
“Known” Forecasted
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
(00
0s)
0-14 15-64 65+
Median Household Income (£)
Source: CACI Paycheck, 2011
People and CommunitiesSTRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
There has been rapid population increaseThe proportion of the population of working age has fallen significantly
Levels of self employment are highHigh levels of self employment may reflect a lack of full-time employment opportunities
Educational attainment is high and the population of working age is well qualified
Despite a highly qualified population, workplace earnings are below average
For some, part-time employment offers opportunities for flexible work
High levels of part-time employment may reduce quality of employment and lead to double-jobbing
Conventional measures of area deprivation are low
Communities experience disadvantages in accessing services
Business and EnterpriseSTRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
Tourism and recreation are significant and growing economic activities
Eden and South Lakeland have many important industrial employers
Employment in the industrial sector has declined considerably since 2003
A high proportion of people work in small businesses and there is a high rate of new firm foundation
The rate of business closure is above average indicating high levels of churn
Infrastructure & EnvironmentSTRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
Eden and South Lakeland contain some of the UK’s finest natural environments
High residential desirability and tourism generates very high demand for housing
The demand for housing distorts local housing markets and reduces the affordability of housing for residents on average earnings
East Cumbria has good north-south road and rail links
Despite good road and rail links there is a considerable shortage of employment land ready for use
Community Safety
• South Lakeland has the 2nd lowest level of crime in Cumbria and is the seventh least deprived district in England in terms of crime
• Levels of crime are falling (6.1% since last year) • Yet drug crime, hate crime and domestic violence are on the rise,
as well as hospital admissions for alcohol attributable conditions • Typical offender in South Lakeland is likely to be aged 18-30
years and male• Crime and disorder is most prevalent in Kendal
Housing• The mean average house price in South
Lakeland is £238,205, over £70,000 more than the county average of £167,455
• The mean housing affordability ratio for the district is 7, above the county average of 5.2
• 24.6% of households in South Lakeland are fuel poor compared to 24.1% in Cumbria
Demand on the Health and Social Care System
Per 1000 the population
Health Demand Actual South Lakeland Cumbria South Lakeland
Calls to Cumbria Health on Call 15,141 141 250 Less calls than Cumbria
Admissions to hospital 11,007 102 115 Less admissions than Cumbria
Calls to the Ambulance Service 12,298 115 108 More calls than Cumbria
Demand on the health and Social Care System
Adults• 3848 adult social care service users accessing 12844
services• 2694 new referrals to adult social care services, with
1194 resulting in a full assessment
Children• 51 looked after children• 90 core assessments completed
Demand on the Health and Social Care SystemAdult Social Care
•81% (3109) of the adult service users are aged 65 and over• Over 1,100 safeguarding alerts come into adult social care every year
South Lakeland service users and services
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
no of service users Number of ServicesLearning Disabailities Mental healthPhysical Disabilities Other
Demand on the Health and Social Care SystemHousing need (Adults)
Source: Planning 4 Care
Take-up of long-term residential care places for the LA-supported population,assuming projected falls in take-up of residential care
0200400600800
1000120014001600
2009 2014 2019 2029
Serv
ice
Use
rs
Need for increase in alternative provision(other than long-term residential care)
Future take-up of LA-funded long-termresidential care places (based on servicetrends)
Total need for support currently met by LA-funded residential care
Demand on the Health and Social Care System – Learning Disabilities
1,762 1,790 1,807 1,834 1,862
1,306 1,319 1,322 1,325 1,335
2,029 2,098 2,156 2,208 2,276
1,316 1,348 1,374 1,398 1,420972 994 1,015 1,031 1,049
1,958 2,002 2,048 2,094 2,132
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Nu
mb
erAllerdale Barrow -in-Furness Carlisle Copeland Eden South Lakeland
2010-30 People aged 18 and over predicted to have a learning disability (Source: PANSI and POPPI based on Emerson and Hatton)
Demand on the Health and Social Care System – Dementia
Figure 14: 2010-2030 The number of people aged over 65 years predicted to have dementia (Source: POPPI)
1,336 1,506 1,740 2,107 2,396923 989
1,1291,300
1,5171,3951,582
1,804
2,074
2,430
859989
1,140
1,388
1,628
739893
1,058
1,269
1,506
1,823
2,076
2,371
2,814
3,337
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Nu
mb
er
Allerdale Barrow-in-Furness Carlisle Copeland Eden South Lakeland
Long-term Conditions, Chronic Illness and Disabilities
Years of life lost from Cancer
Source: National Centre for Health Outcomes Development, 2007-2009
020406080
100120140160180
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
Cumbria North West England
Years of life lost from Circulatory Disease
Long-term Conditions, Chronic Illness and Disabilities
Source: National Centre for Health Outcomes Development, 2007-2009
020406080
100120140
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
Cumbria North West England
% of working age population with a disability
Long-term Conditions, Chronic Illness and Disabilities
Source: Annual Population Survey, 2011
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
Cumbria North West England
% of children (0-16years) entitled to Disability Living Allowance
Long-term Conditions, Chronic Illness and Disabilities
Source: Annual Population Survey, 2011
0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
Cumbria North West England
% happy or very happy with life
Mental Health and Well Being
Source: Quality of Life Survey, 2006
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
Cumbria North West England
% satisfied with local area
Mental Health and Well Being
Source: Place Survey Tracker 2009
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
Cumbria North West England
Estimated neurotic disorder per 1000
Mental Health and Well Being
Source: North East Public Health Observatory, 2008
050
100150200250
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
Cumbria North West England
Admissions for deliberate self harm per 100,000
Mental Health and Well Being
Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2009-10
050
100150200250300350
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
Cumbria North West England
Years of life lost from suicide
Mental Health and Well Being
Source: National Centre for Health Outcomes Development, 2009-10
0
10
20
30
40
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
Rat
e
Cumbria North West England
Infant mortality per 1000 births
Living Conditions and Health Inequalities
Source: National Centre for Health Outcomes Development, 2009
0123456
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
Rat
e
Cumbria North West England
% born with low birth weight (<2.5kg)
Living Conditions and Health Inequalities
Source: National Centre for Health Outcomes Development, 2009
0%2%4%6%8%
10%
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
Cumbria North West England
Teenage pregnancy rate
Living Conditions and Health Inequalities
Source: Office for National Statistics, 2007-2009
0
20
40
60
AllerdaleBarrow CarlisleCopeland Eden SouthLakeland
Rat
e p
er 1
000
Cumbria North West England
% children living in poverty
Living Conditions and Health Inequalities
Source: HMRC, 2009
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
Cumbria North West England
Claimant to vacancy ratio
Living Conditions and Health Inequalities
Source: Office for National Statistics, 2011
02468
101214
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
Rat
e
Cumbria Great Britain England
% working age adults with level 4 or greater education
Living Conditions and Health Inequalities
Source: Annual Population Survey, 2010
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
Cumbria North West England
% working age adults with disabilities in employment
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
Cumbria North West England
Living conditions and Health Inequalities
Source: Annual Population Survey, 2010
Excess winter deaths
Living conditions and Health Inequalities
Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2006-2009
0
1020
30
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
%
Cumbria North West England
% of people who agree they can influence decisions in their area
Living Conditions and Health Inequalities
Source: Place Survey Tracker, 2009
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
Cumbria North West England
Estimated smoking prevalence
Lifestyle and Behaviours
Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2009-2010
05
101520253035
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
%
Cumbria North West England
Smoking during pregnancy per 100 maternities
Lifestyle and Behaviours
Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2009-2010
05
101520
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
Cumbria North West England
Hospital admissions due to alcohol
Lifestyle and Behaviours
Source: Local Alcohol Profiles for England, 2009-2010
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
Rat
e p
er 1
00,0
00
Cumbria North West England
% reporting drunk and rowdy behaviour as a problem
Lifestyle and Behaviours
Source: Place Survey, 2008
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
Cumbria North West England
Estimated prevalence of drug misuse (crack and opiates) per 1,000 people
Lifestyle and Behaviours
02468
101214
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
Cumbria North West England
Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2008-2009
% of people engaging in moderate intensity sport and recreation
Lifestyle and Behaviours
Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2009-2010
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
Cumbria North West England
Healthy eating among adults
Lifestyle and Behaviours
Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2006-2008
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
Cumbria North West England
% of children participating in PE
Lifestyle and Behaviours
Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2009-2010
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
Cumbria North West England
% of year six children obese
Lifestyle and Behaviours
Source: National Child Measurement Programme, 2009-2010
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland
Cumbria North West England