John J. Kinemanapdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/PRIDE/workshop04/kineman.pdfJ. Kineman, 2004 “Integrate...

J. Kineman, 2004

John J. KinemanEcosystem Scientist

NOAA/NESDIS National Geophysical Data CenterBoulder, Colorado

[email protected]

Research Associate, Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences (CIRES)University of Colorado, Boulder

Co-Chair, ISSS SIG “The Ecosystem Approach”

Chair, C-GTOS WG (2003) for Coastal Ecosystems

Co-Chair, ISPRS WG on Global Databases

J. Kineman, 2004

What Am I Doing?

1985-93 NOAA-EPA-UNEP Data Integration for Global Change research (GIS, metadata, interpolations, Q/C, etc.)

1998- Modeling ecological distributions from data and niche theory

2002- Applied R&D in Ecosystem Informatics for integrated science, assessment, and management» C-GTOS» PRIDE» CSES (Univ. of Colorado)

J. Kineman, 2004

“Integrate diverse data sets to facilitate research and modeling.”

Spatial/temporal, thematic, and statistical compatibility

Interactive Data ServicesProvide custom data displays and access to data files on-line.

Custom data products can also be assembled on-line for delivery on a variety of media.

http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/maps/

Dataset Selection: B12

EPA (Corvallis) Climate Database and 2xCO2 Predictions: Marks Regional Water Balance Model and Dailey et al. PRISM Model Precipitation

Principal Investigators

Dr. Danny Marks ManTech Environmental Services, Inc. US Environmental Protection Agency, Corvallis, OR

Christopher Daly Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR

Ronald P. Neilson USDA Forest Service, Corvallis, OR

Donald L. Phillips US Environmental Protection Agency, Corvallis, OR

Summary:

These data represent combined modeling efforts at the US EPA Laboratory in Corvallis Oregon as part of the EPA Global Climate Research Program. Global Circulation Model predictions were applied as anomalies to modern climatologies (observed and modeled) to produce a geographically consistent series of high resolution maps for the conterminous United States, showing current climate and predicted conditions under Carbon Dioxide doubling according to four different models. Dataset consists seven thematic layers, and a total of 230 images: a) Digital Elevation Model, b) Regional mask, c) Topographically-Corrected Surface Wind, d)Control and Model Elevation-Corrected Temperatures, e) Elevation-Corrected Temperature-Interpolated Vapor Pressure, f) PRISM Model Precipitation, g) Model-derived Evapotranspiration. Data is gridded at a resolution of 10km x 10km.

Dataset Description (file lists/download)

Dataset Element Descriptions (file download) Technical Reports

Primary References:

Marks, D. 1992. "A continental-scale simulation of potential evapotranspiration for historical and projected doubled-CO2 climate conditions." In: Gucinski, H., D. Marks, and D. Turner (eds.). 1992. Biospheric Feedbacks to Climate Change: The Sensitivity of Regional Trace Gas Emissions, Evapotranspiration, and Energy Balance to Vegetation Redistribution--Status of Ongoing Research.EPA/600/3-90/078. Corvallis, OR: USEPA.

Daly, C., R.P. Neilson, and D.L. Phillips. 1994. "A statistical-topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain." J. Applied Meteorology. Vol. 33 No. 2.

Com

preh

ensi

ve M

etad

ata

and

Tech

nica

l Rep

orts

Source:• assistance• incentives• priorities

Quality:• quality analysis• metadata. • technical reports

Integration:• geospatial-

statistical compatibility

• thematic fusion

Interoperability• comparisons /

combinations• modeling support• multiple formats

Total vegetation (NDVI) with average rainfall (above)Net Primary Production (NPP) with average temperature (below)

Data Integration

J. Kineman, 2004

Modeling the Functional Niche

Data analysis

Combined probability

M

“Character Space”

Adaptive Peak

Axis 1 Axis 2

Suitability

Potential niche model

Ecological “Potentials”

J. Kineman, 2004

Mapping Ecosystem Functions (e.g., potential ecoregions)

A generalized “niche” model to map functional classifications at various levels of aggregation. (Kineman)

Temperature Photosynthetic Radiation PrecipitationPrecipitation Soil Water Holding Soil Water Holding CapacityCapacity

J. Kineman, 2004

Kuchler Vegetation

J. Kineman, 2004

Eastern Hardwood Model (T,P,PET)(Single Mode)

Predicted Suitabilities

Main Kuchlerdistribution

J. Kineman, 2004

Designing for Complex Questions

Developing informatics tools...

for Integrated Assessments and Coastal Observing

Adaptive niche model

nn

iiSHSI

/1

1

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Functional Niche Models

J.J.Kineman 2003

Define/Prepare Controlling Variables

Temperature Photosynthetic Radiation

Precipitation Soil Water Holding Capacity

Data Integration, Quality Assurance, and Analysis

Predicting Ecological Distributions...

J.J.Kineman 2003

Test Global Eco-unit Model, Vectorized (Kineman)

Building a System for Model-based Adaptive Mapping

Integrating Environmental Observations...

PredictiveMaps

Validation Revision

Multi-variate Stratification

Sele

ctda

ta la

yers

√ temp√ precip√ swhc√ PAR

LUI[N]elevVrelPETLAI

Pdens

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Remove data layer

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Define ClassesDefine trainingDefine thresholds

√ System defined

User Definition Delineation Method√ Cluster analysis

Maximum liklihoodBaysian probabilitiesgradient analysis

OutputInput

Decadal-Annual-Seasonal--Monthly--Daily-Hourly

Tim

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Spat

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link FD withspatial scale

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Multi-variate Stratification

Sele

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yers



Pdens


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Sele

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Pdens

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Pdens


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√ System defined

User DefinitionDefine ClassesDefine trainingDefine thresholds

√ System defined



Delineation Method√ Cluster analysis


OutputInput


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Tim

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Spat

ial

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Spat

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FD = 1.3420 EcologicalModeler

24 April 2002Ecosystem Informatics at NGDC

Define Controlling Variables

Temperature Photosynthetic Radiation

Precipitation Soil Water Holding Capacity

• improved data• time series• new measures• higher resolution• error correction

• validation

Eco-region ModelUSGS-NBII

NOAA

test data

J. Kineman, 2004

Ecoregion Model - carbonSpecies Model - manatee

Ecoregion Model

Model Type FileType SK Gaussian type I GN1.mcdDimensions 3Dim-1 Temperature Tavg001Dim-2 Precipitation PRE043Dim-3 PAR PAR5Parameters

FGDC Model-Attri

bute Meta

data?

Entity-AttributeRelations

J. Kineman, 2004

J. Kineman, 2004

Putting it Together In the Field

Grade AGrade BCyberspace

EOL On-Line Field Guide

Location + DNA New Find

J. Kineman, 2004

The READ Project

Regional

Ecosystems

Assessment

Data

Integrated EcosystemInformatics

Critical CoastalEcosystems

• UNEP Global Resources Information Database• UNEP Division of Early Warning and Assessment• UNFAO• NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment (RISA)

Program (Colorado and Pacific)• NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC)• NOAA PRIDE initiative• NBII/Pacific Basin Information Node• Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS)• National Biological Information Infrastructure (NBII)• World Data Center for Biodiversity and Terrestrial Ecology (BTE)• University of Colorado Cooperative Institute for Research in the

Environmental Sciences (CIRES) and Center for the Study of Earth from Space (CSES).

• East Carolina University [email protected]

Partners

J. Kineman, 2004

Central Questions

• What are the critical issues for coastal ecosystem assessment?

• What new informatics are required to support “integrated science,” “ecosystem assessment,” and “ecosystem (-based) management”?

• How can we best prepare information about the status of coastal ecosystems?

• What is the future of data & information management?

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J. Kineman, 2004

Is Our Information Concept Too Simple?Decoding

Encoding

InformationSystem

NaturalSystem

“The Map is Not the Territory” – Korzybsky“A Modeling Relation with no Largest (single) Model” – Rosen

1 : ∞

J. Kineman, 2004

Contribution to C-GTOS Implementation Plan and PRIDE report to Congress

Four-part Informatics Holarchy

Source• Observations &

observing programs• Early warning /

detection• Measurement

standards• Sensor technology

Sharing• Distributed data

systems• metadata (standards,

architectures, etc.)• Indexing / archiving• Very large databases• Search technologies

Integration• Analysis & generalizations• Quality & restructuring• Model-based products• Adaptive response to

cross-disciplinary problems

• Information systemtechnology

Synthesis• Problem definition• Strategic thinking• Information needs• Research priorities• Specialized products• Communication &

packaging• Synthesis products• Decision-support

technology

Application / Operation

Design / Definition

Research & Technological Development

Sci

ence

/ P

olic

y P

robl

ems

J. Kineman, 2004

Data & Information Hierarchysupply

• Source– Sensors and observing systems– Measurement standards (national & international)– Data & metadata collection protocols– Level 1 corrections (models and procedures)– Quality assurance and control

• Sharing– Ingest, archive, duplication, developing data sets and databases– Documentation/metadata, data reports– Formatting & structuring (GIS spatial/temporal architecture)– Semantic network search capabilities– Dissemination/access (web access, CD’s, geospatial database enterprise, etc.)

• Integration & modeling– Re-design (resampling, interpolation, field models, etc.)– Model-based combination of variables to produce new data products– Thematic and problem-oriented support (databases, products, & information)– Real-time adaptive response to product needs

• Synthesis– Thematic web sites and Reports– Research support services– Outreach & education– Decision support Product

need

the

tradi

tion

the

futu

re

J. Kineman, 2004

A Problem Orientation Framework

Threats & Opportunities

Integrated Assessments

Detection&

Monitoring

Data Sources Problem Analysis Decision Support

Scenarios

Problem Analysis (Scientific and Political)Should Drive Data and Informatics Priorities

and Decision Support Needs

J. Kineman, 2004

Coastal Implementation Plan for Coastal Implementation Plan for Ecosystems (2004):Ecosystems (2004):

Functional Mapping of Global Functional Mapping of Global Coastal Ecosystem Services:Coastal Ecosystem Services:

InternationalInternationalDeltas ResearchDeltas ResearchDatabaseDatabase

An FAO & NOAA Partnership

J. Kineman, 2004

Coastal GTOS FY03 Recommendations(Ecosystems Working Group)

Suite of ecosystem observations

Begin mapping coastal ecosystem functions (model-based mapping)

Pilot/demo for global deltasScientific assessment

Research support database

J. Kineman, 2004

Eco-Habitat POI/measures (mechanistic and complex)

Ecosystem and Habitat Metrics• Eco-regions (classification)• Habitat/eco-unit conversion• Fragmentation, connectivity,

dimension, contagion, etc.)• Biodiversity (species diversity,

hotspots, coldspots)• Desertification (rate, extent)• Deforestation• ESI (Environmental Sustainability

Index)• Coastal Vulnerability Index (UNEP)• Environmental Sensitivity Index

(RPI/NOAA)• Gap Analysis• Protected or managed ecological areas• Indigenous knowledge (?) • Positive feedback disturbances

(ecological memory) (?)• Creeping change (flip potential) (?)

Status of Biota• Fishery resources• Phytoplankton• Threatened species • Biotic migrations, invasions• Vegetation type, extent, change• Forest resources (type, quantity,

height) • Extent of SAV (submerged

aquatic veg.)• Pathogenic microbes • HABs (harmful algal

blooms)• Turnover / extinction

(“unusual marine mortalities” - Heinz)

• Keystone species• Indicator species

Critical Biological Processes• Chlorophyll• Nutrient cycling (N, C, P)• Leaf Area Index• Evapotranspiration • Peat formation • Primary production • Secondary production• Water BOD• Denitrification • DOM, POM [C, N and P])• Nutrient supply • Respiration• Grazing• Bioaccumulation (pollutants)• Nitrogen saturation index (?)

J. Kineman, 2004



Begin mapping coastal ecosystem functions(model-based mapping)

Pilot/demo for global deltasScientific assessment


J. Kineman, 2004

J. Kineman, 2004

Structure FunctionFunction

encoding

decoding

caus

ality

implication

Why Map Functions?

Kineman, 1999; after Rosen

∞ : ∞

This relationship is why systems are complex!

J. Kineman, 2004

Functional Clustering

e.g..• Water

cleansing• Biotic

controls• Micro-

climate• Key

species

FunctionalModel

Functional Cluster Model

=(e.g. Productivity)

FunctionalModel

FunctionalModel

FunctionalModel

J. Kineman, 2004



Begin mapping coastal ecosystem functions (model-based mapping)

Pilot/demos for global deltasScientific assessment


J. Kineman, 2004

C-GTOS Implementation Plan

Pilot Projects Recommended:

– Ecological functions and vulnerability in deltas• Spatial models for ecosystem functions and vulnerabilities• Deltas research support database

– Distribution of coastal population, urbanization, and impacts• Coastal urbanization products

– Coastal Conservation and Cultural Sites• Protected resources and areas data

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J. Kineman, 2004

Deltas are Important System Integrators and Indicators

• Rivers• Lakes• Bays and lagoons• Estuaries• Small Islands and reefs• Deltas

**

* * IPCC Coastal Hotspots

J. Kineman, 2004

Coleman and Huh NASA Study of 42 deltas around the world.

J. Kineman, 2004

Are We Losing Our Coastal Deltas?Are We Losing Our Coastal Deltas?

•• Global land loss on the Global land loss on the coastal coastal marginsmargins ANDAND the the interiorinterior of deltas of deltas since 1980’s.since 1980’s.

•• Land loss and socioLand loss and socio--ecological ecological vulnerability the coming decades..vulnerability the coming decades..

Causes? (needs to be assessed)Causes? (needs to be assessed)•• Dams and other hydrological Dams and other hydrological

diversionsdiversions•• Human land useHuman land use•• Climate change and biotic Climate change and biotic

feedbacks to substrate stability?We need to assess the importance of deltas.

feedbacks to substrate stability?

Coastal GTOS Implementation Plan, 2004.Coastal GTOS Implementation Plan, 2004.

J. Kineman, 2004

New Data! 1985-1992land-lossin the Yukon delta

(Coleman, Huh & Dewit, 2004)

J. Kineman, 2004

Deltaic Systems: A Test Case for Integrated Science Informatics

• Geophysical processes (geology/geophysics, soils, hydrology, sediment transport, substrate stability, geochemistry)

• Climate change (Sea level change, warming, severe storms, wave and tide energy, interanual to decadal change)

• Land loss 1985-2000 (causes, extent, impacts, scenarios, models, forecasts)

• Ecosystem functions/services (ecological processes, vegetation, key species, marine habitats, ecosystem goods and services, ecological indicators)

• Society / vulnerability (aquaculture, agriculture, water quality & availability, land use/urbanization, population, health)

J. Kineman, 2004

Toward A Global Data Service:Available Data

• World Deltas (Coleman, Huh, and DeWitt, 2004)

– 27 CD-ROMS received– 42 deltas around the world

• Maps of the drainage basins• Satellite imagery (300 composits)• Aerial photography

– 18 deltas with detailed studies• environmental history• coastline change• industrialization• agriculture

• Florida Keys (Darby & Hart) – small carbonate deltas organic

characterizations• islands, windy key delta

• 1965-2000 coastline of Vietnam and Mekong Delta (Morgan, UNS)

• Mississippi Delta Database (Hart)

– Major environments of Mississippi Delta

– 520 stations– surface sample geochemistry

and organic characterization, • Deltas of Peninsular India (Hart)

– Mahanadi, Krishna, Godavari, Penner, Cauvery

• Arctic Deltas (Jesse Walker)• Nile Delta (Dale Kiefer & Dan

Stanley)• APN Mega-Deltas of Asia

J. Kineman, 2004

Coleman, Huh, & DeWitt, 2004. Major World Deltas: A Perspective from Space.

J. Kineman, 2004

J. Kineman, 2004

New Data!

J. Kineman, 2004

Development in Bangledesh from Night Lights (Dr. Chris Elvidge, NOAA)

2000

1992/3Urban growth

Difference in stable night lights between 1992 and 2000

J. Kineman, 2004

Topographic & Bathymetric Data Fusion Product

(Hawaiian Islands)

David Divins, NOAA, National Geophysical Data Center

J. Kineman, 2004

ObjectivesREAD will explore new informatics capabilities and information products regarding:

• Vulnerability of ecological goods and services,• Ecosystem change with respect to regional and global drivers• Integrated ecosystem assessment and management issues

In:• Global coastal river deltas (C-GTOS)• Island ecosystems (PRIDE)

For the purpose of:• Understanding and responding to complexity

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J. Kineman, 2004

READ Products

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ỏ Websiteỏ Deltas change (D2) research and data support portal prototypeỏ Integrated Science and Ecosystem informatics (general)

ỏ Workshopsỏ Scoping: Issues & information needs (Fall, ’04; 2.5 days )ỏ Science & informatics agenda (Early ’05; 2.5 days)

ỏ Reportsỏ Coastal GTOS Implementation Plan (√); next phase (this year)ỏ Contribution to PRIDE Congressional Report (√)ỏ New University Center for Integrated Science and Informatics

(Fall)ỏ READ Pre-Pilot Phase (√); Pilot Project (this year)

J. Kineman, 2004

NOAA White Water to Blue Water Initiative

WW2BW's international Steering Committeeis working to identify existing programs and develop new partnerships that enhance integrated approaches in areas such as wastewater and sanitation, sustainable agricultural practices, integrated coastal management, sustainable tourism, and environmentally sound marine transportation...

John J. Kinemanapdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/PRIDE/workshop04/kineman.pdfJ. Kineman, 2004 “Integrate...

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