John Furlow: USAID's approach to adaptation

USAID’s Approach to Adaptation

High Mountain and Glacier Watershed Program

July 15, 2013

John Furlow, Global Climate Change Office

USAID

USAID’s Climate and Development Strategy

•Mitigation •Adaptation •Integration across Agency activities

Adaptation emphasizes:• Highly vulnerable

countries• Ability or willingness to

respond• LDCS, SIDS, Glacier-

dependent countries

Weather, Climate, and Economics

• Developing country economies concentrated in climate sensitive sectors

• ~70% of developing country populations derive income from agriculture

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rainfall variation around the meanGDP growthAg GDP growth

Ethiopia: Rainfall, GDP and Agric. GDP

World Bank

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Ethiopia: Rainfall, GDP and Agric. GDPEthiopia: Rainfall, Ag GDP,

GDP Growth

Adaptation Programs

Aim to reduce vulnerability in key development sectors

• Build access and capacity to apply scientific information

• Improve Governance

• Implement programs to build resilience.

TodayVulnerable economy:

• Climate-sensitive economic activities

• Uneven growth, income distribution

• Weak governance

• Missing incentives and policies

2050Resilient Economy:

• Diversified economy

• More equitable, income distribution

• Safety from climate-related disasters

• Adequate, clean energy

GCC Adaptation Inputs

Governance capacity

Information communication

and use

Planning and design

Climate-resilient growth

Low emissions development

New technologies Improved

market conditions

Strategic financing

GCC Mitigation Inputs

Low Carbon, Climate Resilient Growth

Agriculture, resource managementEconomic and social developmentEducation, infrastructure, etc.

USAID’s Mainstreaming Approach

Resi

lienc

e Im

prov

ed

Development objectives

Requirements for development objectivesInputs

Enabling environment

Stressors/Constraints/ImpedimentsClimate

Non-climate

SolutionsAdaptation actions to reduce climate stresses

Actions to reduce non-climate stressesActions with co-benefits

Prob

lem

For

mul

atio

n an

d Pr

ogra

m D

esig

n

USAID’s Mainstreaming Approach: Food Security

Resi

lienc

e Im

prov

ed

Development objectives: Food Security

Requirements for development objectivesInputs: seeds, land, water, fertilizer, labor, credit, savings, transport, markets, public health, etc.Enabling environment: Effective governance, stable society, land tenure, price incentives, etc.

Stressors/Constraints/ImpedimentsClimate – Extreme rainfall events, higher temps, drought, delayed rains Non-climate – Poor sanitation, rapid population growth, infectious disease, perverse incentives, poor infrastructure, risk aversion, post harvest losses

SolutionsAdaptation actions to reduce climate stresses – e.g., access to tailored climate forecasts, seeds, water harvesting, irrigation, credit, insurance, etc.Actions to reduce non-climate stresses – WASH, health programs, better storage, etc

Prob

lem

For

mul

atio

n an

d Pr

ogra

m D

esig

n

Matching Information with Decisions

• What is important to stakeholders?• What decisions are being made?• Which can you influence?• What is the timeframe of the decision?• What information would inform a better decision?

Giannini et al., 2007

Global level Uncertainties are Large; Regional level are larger(Individual Model Runs and Averages)

East Africa

Key Opportunities/Demands: Climate Change

Limitations of “traditional” climate change scenarios

• Uncertainties

• Double Conflict of Scales (too course, too far in the future)

• Trends (“Climate Change”) Explain Relatively Small Proportion of Total Variability

Walter Baethgen, IRI

Pick 15 years randomly

Mean Monthly Rainfall in SW Uruguay (1910 – 2010)


SW Uruguay: Monthly Precipitation (15 Randomly Selected Years)

0

50

100

150

200

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300

350

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Month

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

)


None of the years behaves like the long term mean

Probability of a year being “Average” = ZERO

Can we do better?• Seasonal Climate Forecasts• Understand Historical Variability / associated risks• Study possible characteristics of Future Climate• Link it to Decision Systems

Still, Planning/Decisions are often based on “AVERAGE” year


Our Approach to Climate Risk Management: Manage the Entire Range of RISKS


Climate related Outcome (e.g., food production)

Pro

babi

lity

(Den

sity

)


Pro

babi

lity

(Den

sity

)

Ag Production Systems,Water Management,are designed to avoid this

HARDSHIPe.g., Drought

CRISISe.g., Mitch



CRISISe.g., Mitch


Pro

babi

lity

(Den

sity

)


Ag Production Systems,Water Management,are designed to avoid this

Also CriticalFor

Development:Risk aversion reduces Technology Adoption

Effect on Natural Resources

“Poverty Traps”

MISSEDOPPORTUNITIES



CRISISe.g., Mitch


Pro

babi

lity

(Den

sity

)


Cover this to be able to take advantage of this

INDEX INSURANCE

Insurance that does not aim to Compensate Damagebut to Take Advantageof Opportunities


Jamaica’s Vision for Development

Impact on Fisheries

• Healthy and Stable Population• World Class Education• Social Protection• Stable Macro Economy• Enabling Business Environment• Strong Economic Infrastructure• Energy Security• Competitive Industries• Sustainable Management of Resources• Hazard Risk Reduction and Adaptation• Sustainable Urban and Rural Development

CLIMATE SENSITIVE ELEMENTS OF JAMAICA’S VISION 2030

Dia

gnos

e pr

oble

ms

Vision 2030 Economic drivers / Development objectivesFood Security, Economic Growth, Tourism, Health

Requirements for development objectives Inputs – Agricultural systems, fisheries, markets, natural environment, fresh water, energy, transport systems, laborEssential conditions – Safety, governance, policy, financing, public awareness

Stressors/Constraints/Impediments Climate – Natural disasters, changes in rainfall, temperature, sea level rise Non-climate – Demographic pressure, pollution, corruption, chronic poverty, conflict

Solutions Adaptation actions to reduce climate stresses – Strengthen Weather/Climate Services, Improved early warnings, capacity building, public awareness, better natural resources management, financial servicesActions to reduce non-climate stresses – Policy measures to address pollution

Des

ign

Improve R

esilienceADDRESSING CLIMATE STRESS IN DEV. PROGRAMS

EXAMPLES FROM THE JAMAICA PROCESS

Internationally Competitive Industry

Structures(Vision 2030 Outcome)

Tourism(Sector)

Labor(Input)

Security/safety(Enabling condition)

Beaches(Input)

Coral reefs (Input)

Reliable transportation

(Enabling condition)

Lack of access to training

FloodingSea level rise

Greater rainfall

intensity

Warmer temps

Sea level rise

Reliable electricity supply

(Enabling condition)

Tropical storms Warmer

temps

Pollution

Pollution

Fuel costs

Energy costs

EXAMPLE FROM THE JAMAICA PROCESS: TOURISM

Beach nourishment

Share lessons learned

Update zoning regulations &

building codes

Enforce existing laws & regulations

Beaches(Input)

Artificial reefs

Restore coastal

vegetation

Improve coastal

resources management

Update engineering and design standards

Raise public awareness

Train developers & contractors in more resilient approaches

Policies to complement

on-the-ground actions

FloodingSea level

rise

Pollution

Analyze & disseminate weather &

climate info.

EXAMPLE FROM THE JAMAICA PROCESS: TOURISM

Sea walls, groins, other

manmade beach

defenses

Climate Services: Jamaica Ag Extension and Met Service

• Seasonal predictions of rainfall and drought conditions. – New systems for predicting drought conditions, based on the

Standardized Precipitation Index– Additional work forecasting of soil moisture conditions

• Improving communication of agricultural climate risk management practices

• Climate services implementation in three target agricultural sites: – SW St. Elizabeth, – Manchester/Christiana, – Guy’s Hill

Thank You

• USAID Climate Page– http://www.usaid.gov/climate

• Adaptation Partnership– http://www.adaptationpartnership.org/

• Climate Services Partnership– http://climate-services.org/node

John Furlow: USAID's approach to adaptation

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