John D. Sterman

anchoring and adjustment

poor performancemisperceptions of feedback

Simon , Kahneman, Slovic, and Tversky , Plott , Smith, Hogarth and Reder

Hogarth

outcome feedback

Simon , p.

Coleman( )

Beer Distribution Game

anchoring and adjustment

misperceptions of feedback

open-loop mental model

lag

S A L

X Uage distribution

SL( )

O A( )( )

Simon( ) Cyert & March( )

Morecroft ( , ) Sterman ( , a) [] D.W.

pp. -

Ot = MAX( ,IOt) ( )IO

Tversky and Kahneman anchoring and adjustment

Kahneman Tversky

Einhorn and Hogarth , Davis etal. , Johnson and Schkade , Hines

AS ASL

IOt = t + ASt + ASLt ( )t L*

t Lt- L* t Lt-t- t i Lt - i i

AS

ASt = S (S *t - St ) ( )S

ASLt = SL(SL*t - SLt ) ( )SL* SL

*

SL*t = t *t ( )

*

Einhorn, Kleinmuntz, and Kleinmuntz

MIT

[ ]

.

[ ]

debriefing

MIT

.

effective inventory:

.

.

SSL

S * SL*

Sterman b, Frankel and Froot

S *

SL*( ) ( )

Ot = MAX( , t + ASt + ASLt) ( )t = Lt + ( - ) t- ( )ASt = S(S *- St) ( )ASLt = SL(SL*- SLt) ( )

S * SL* SL/ S S ' = S * + SL*

Ot = MAX[ , t + S(S' - St - SLt)+ t ] ( )S * SL* SL S S '

SL S =

=, S ,S'

t

Judge et al. .

R (RMSE: root mean square errors)R

S S'

S S'

i,j . j, Sj, S'j, j i; ( . ) i= , , , j , , ( )N = , R = .

bootstrapping effect

Camerer

Bowman( )

S *S' S * SL* S *

SL* S'S'= . + * . , N = , R = . ( )

( . ) ( . )R S * SL* S' SL*

S * S'

( ) SL*

( )

.

.

Grizzy R .

Grizzy S . S'S

[ ]

.

Suds R . S .

Suds

Suds

debriefing

T. Mitchell , Hansen , W. Mitchell , Zarnowitz

Sterman ( a)

(Meadows , Hoyt , Commodity Research Bureau, various years)

robustness(Sterman a, )

suboptimal

Hall ( , ) [ ]STELLAHall Clark, Thomas D. and Hironori Kurono,"A Conversion Table

of DYNAMO into STELLA II or ithink," pp. - Morecroft( )

Tversky and Kahneman( ) Hogarth ( ) outcome feedback

Brehmer . Hogarth , Kleinmuntz , MacKinnon and Wearing , Remus

action feedback

Copyright , The Institute of Management Science(currently INFORMS), Westminster Street,Providence, RI USA. Sterman John D., Modeling Managerial Behavior: Misperceptions

of Feedback in a Dynamic Decision Making Experiment,Management Science, Vol. , pp. - , March

Robert L. Winkler

Management Science, Vol. MITMIT Ph. D. SD

Management Science, BehavioralScience, International Journal of Forecasting, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,

System Dynamics Review, Technological Forecasting, Social Change

MIT

E

"Learning in and about complex systems" (System Dynamics Review, [ -]: - ,SUMMER-FALL )

("anchoring and adjustment"

SD "performance"(performance)"

"performance""performance evaluation"

"Experimental Economics"vol. , No. , Jul.

, -Smith

Grether and Plott , Slovic and Lichtenstein , Tversky and Kahneman

= , s = ,= , S '= ( )

S , S',S , , S' . , . , . , t

t = R R

r r Judge et al.Lt t t Lt

(

John Carroll, Richard Day, James Hines, Robin Hogarth, Don Kleinmunts, Robert WinklerDaniel Ryu

Bogaziciaction feedback

(action feedback) (outcomefeedback)