John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director...

25
From: John Coleman To: PDS comments Cc: Dale Pernula Subject: 2016 Comp Plan UGA Modification Application Date: Friday, July 31, 2015 4:05:18 PM Please accept the attached 2016 Comp Plan UGA Modification Application materials from the City of Sedro-Woolley. Thank you. John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley Planning Department (360) 855-0771

Transcript of John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director...

Page 1: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

From: John ColemanTo: PDS commentsCc: Dale PernulaSubject: 2016 Comp Plan UGA Modification ApplicationDate: Friday, July 31, 2015 4:05:18 PM

Please accept the attached 2016 Comp Plan UGA Modification Application materials from the City of Sedro-Woolley. Thank you.

John Coleman, AICPPlanning Director

Sedro-Woolley Planning Department(360) 855-0771

Page 2: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

form updated 7/1/2015 page 1 of 6

Comprehensive Plan/Zoning Map Amendment RequestPlanning & Development Services · 1800 Continental Place · Mount Vernon WA 98273voice 360-416-1320 · www.skagitcounty.net/planning

Per RCW 36.70A.470(2), this form is intended for use by any interested person, including applicants, citizens, hearing examiners, and

staff of other agencies, to request amendments to the Skagit County Comprehensive Plan/Zoning Map. Please do not combine

multiple unrelated map amendments on a single form. This form is for changes to the map; use the Policy or Development

Regulation Suggestion form for changes to those regulations.

Submitted By

Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley

Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley, WA Zip 98284

Email [email protected] Phone 360-855-0771

Request Type

Choose one of the following:

General ☐ Site-specific map amendment, as defined in SCC 14.08.020(6), but NOT to a commercial/industrial designation.

C-I ☐ Site-specific map amendment to a commercial/industrial designation per SCC 14.08.020(7)(c)(iii).

Rezone ☐ Site-specific rezone without the need for a Comprehensive Plan Map amendment per SCC 14.08.020(7).

Area ☒ Area-wide map amendment.

Required Submittals

All map amendments and rezones:

☐ Fees (except area-wide map amendments)

☒ Land Use Map

☐ Lot of Record Certification

☐ Ownership Certification (if required below)

Commercial-Industrial map amendments and rezones:

☒ Site Plan

☐ Commercial/Industrial Phasing Plan;optional, see SCC 14.08.020(7)(c)(iii)

Subject Property

Site Address Area-wide rezone of existing unincorporatedUGA and adding new land to Sedro-WoolleyUGA

City, State Zip

Parcel No(s) Existing Zone

Acreage Requested Zone

Property Interest

Are you the owner of the subject property?

Yes ☐ Please attach Attachment A, Ownership Certification

No ☒

Describe your interest in the subject property: Area-wide map amendment for City of Sedro-Woolley UGA. The Cityis in the process of holding public meetings to determine the exact properties to be proposed for inclusion in theUGA expansion.

Page 3: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

form updated 7/1/2015 page 2 of 6

Proposal Description

Please answer all of the questions below that are applicable to your suggestion.

1. Describe your proposed amendment.

The proposal is to add enough land to the Sedro-Woolley urban growth area (UGA) to accommodate the projected employmentgrowth and population growth over the 20 year planning horizon (2016 to 2036). The Skagit Council of Governments (SCOG) hasadopted a projected employment and population estimate for the county and each jurisdiction. The City of Sedro-Woolley hascommissioned a Buildable Land & Land Capacity Analysis Report (BLA Report), prepared by E.D. Hovee & Company, per SCC todetermine how much land is available for development within City limits and to further determine if there is adequate land toaccommodate the 20 year projections. The BLA Report shows that the City does not have an adequate inventory of industrial,commercial and residential land to accommodate the 20 year projected employment and population estimates. Specifically, the Cityneeds to accommodate an additional 359 jobs and 128 residents beyond what the existing UGA can accommodate. The proposalseeks to add land the UGA and change zoning in the city limits and change the Comprehensive Map designations (County zoning) ofproperty in the unincorporated UGA to enable the city to meet SCOG-adopted population and jobs growth.

Per the BLA Report, the City UGA will need to expand by approximately 91 additional acres (see details below). The exact amount ofland dedicated to each commercial, industrial and residential will depend on the balance of commercial and industrial land(commercial accommodates 20 jobs per acre, industrial only 6.5 jobs per acre) ultimately recommended by the City Council. It isprobable that land currently zoned for residential (Residential 5 zoning in City and Urban Reserve Residential in the unincorporatedUGA) will be changed to commercial or industrial (Mixed Commercial zoning or Industrial zoning in City, Urban Reserve Commercial-Industrial in the unincorporated UGA). Assuming the city allocates the 359 jobs that are unaccounted for to the industrial sector (themost likely scenario) then approximately 77 acres of raw land (55.2 acres buildable) will need be to be added to the UGA and zonedindustrial. Also, assuming the that additional land necessary to accommodate the 128 residents for which there is not enoughresidential land is zoned Residential 5 (again the likeliest scenario), then approximately 14 acres of raw (10 acres buildable)residentially zoned property is needed. Therefore, according the BLA Report, the city needs to add 91 acres of raw land to the UGAto meet the SCOG allocation. The two most likely places for expansion (still in public review process and pending City Counciladoption) are approximately 50 acres east of Garden of Eden Road and north of F&S Grade Road as well as 41 acres north of existingCity limits along State Route 9. See attached maps.

The City has an active Comprehensive Map amendment application under review by the County. That application was submitted onJuly 31, 2013 and includes a request to add approximately 27.73 acres of land north of the current city limits. The Sedro-WooleyPlanning Commission reviewed this proposal under file #CPA-2-12 and the City Council approved the Planning Commission’srecommendation through Resolution NO. 879-13. That 27.73 acres will be included in this proposal. The County had previouslyrequested that the City perform a BLA Report as part of the 27.73 acre addition; now that the BLA Report is complete, the 27.73 acreUGA expansion is being "rolled-into" this larger UGA modification request (see Skagit County file #PL13-0299 for completeapplication materials for 2013/2014 County Comprehensive Plan Updates). That application also proposed a "land swap" that wouldremove land from the existing UGA and add new lands to the UGA. This proposal includes an expansion of that land swap concept.The City has pointed out on numerous occasions that the existing UGA east of city limits to Fruitdale Road was developed to sub-urban densities, but the area is not served with urban amenities such as sewer, adequate street and sidewalk improvements, streetlighting, and other improvements that make an area urban. This proposal includes the elimination of the existing UGA east of citylimits, south of state Route 20 and north of State Street - (herein referred to as "Wicker Road UGA"). This area is approximately 200acres and can neither practicably nor economically be provided with the aforementioned urban amenities. The Wicker Road UGAwas allowed to be developed in such a manner under rural Skagit County development regulations; the area is rural. Because urbanamenities, particularly sanitary sewer, is not available in the area, there is very little development potential in the area - despite thefact that the BLA Report indicates that there is buildable land in the area. Because the "developable land" (per the BLA Report) in theWicker Road UGA is not actually developable, the City cannot realize its full UGA development potential.

The only way for the Wicker Road UGA to be developable is for the County to pay into providing sewer, road and pedestrianimprovements that would make the remaining undeveloped land usable for residential construction. Without County financialsupport to provide urban services, there is no economically feasible way for a private developer of a lot in the Wicker Road UGA torealize the potential development that the BLA Report indicates is possible. In essence, the Wicker Road UGA counts as developablein the City BLA Report, but the land cannot be developed. Thus the City is unable to meet growth demands in this area. The Cityproposes removing the roughly 200 acres of the Wicker Road UGA and increase the UGA by 200 acres to the north of town - in otherwords, a land swap of 200 acres. The development potential within the area proposed to be included in the UGA will need to matchthe development potential of the 200 removed acres. The BLA Report will show the amount of new residents the Wicker Road UGAcan accommodate. Enough land to accommodate that much residential development is proposed to be added to the north of thecity; this number will also be identified in the BLA Report. The attached maps show an addition of 282 acres; 77 to accommodate theneeded industrial land (see above); 14 to accommodate the needed residential land (also see above); and 191 to accommodate thedevelopment potential of the 200 removed acres. This represents approximately 282 additional acres to the Sedro-Woolley UGA (91+ 191 = 282). Accounting for the removal of approximately 200 acres in the Wicker Road UGA, the total acreage in the Sedro-

Page 4: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

form updated 7/1/2015 page 3 of 6

Woolley UGA would increase by 82 acres under this proposal.

The 191 replacement acres contains approximately 30 acres of County-owned gravel pit - that land would be zoned Public and notcounted towards residential development. That brings the developable land in the replacement area to 161 acres. In addition, theBottomless Lake neighborhood is assumed to be zoned for large lots (1-3 acres) and this area is assumed to not accommodate anysignificant future development. This will further bring the development potential of the replacement area in close comparison to thedevelopment potential of the Wicker Road UGA proposed for removal. The 200 acre land swap is in addition to the previouslydescribed additional UGA land necessary to accommodate the 20 year population and employment projections.

Alternately to the proposal to remove the Wicker Road UGA, the City would be open to an alternate proposal to keep the WickerRoad UGA in the City's UGA, but be allowed to remove the development potential from the Wicker Road UGA and apply it to thearea north (in the manner proposed above). In this alternate proposal, the City would still be adding land to the UGA north of theexisting UGA. This alternative addresses the City's concern that the Wicker Road UGA is not developable even though the BLA Reportshows that there is developable land within the Wicker Road UGA. This alternative would allow the Wicker Road UGA to stay in theSedro-Woolley UGA but allow the City to still provide actual developable land to the north of existing UGA boundaries. In thisscenario, should the County find a means to pay for urban infrastructure improvements in the Wicker Road UGA in the long-term,then future development may occur - granted this may take several decades for such a plan to materialize. In the meantime, the Cityneeds the development potential that the Wicker Road UGA is holding back to meet the City's GMA mandate to accommodate urbangrowth. For this reason, the City proposes to remove the development potential from the Wicker Road UGA and apply it to the areanorth of existing the UGA limits.

Attached to this application are the BLA Report and a map showing the likely properties to be proposed for inclusion in the UGA. Theproposed zoning designations in that area - and any other necessary zoning changes in the existing UGA limits - have not beenapproved by the City Council (and will not be until the local public hearing process is completed). Complete maps of this 2016proposal that include the proposed properties to be included in the UGA and proposed City Comprehensive Plan Map changesshowing the zoning designations within the City and in the UGA are forthcoming pending further public meetings and hearings. Inaddition to the hearings held prior to the 2013 Comprehensive Map amendment application submittal, the City has also had onepublic hearing and three Planning Commission meetings where the UGA sizing and possible map amendments have been discussed.

2. Describe the reasons your proposed amendment is needed or important.

The City and County are required under the Growth Management Act (GMA) to plan for future employment and population growth.The City is doing its part to assure that there is enough land within the UGA to meet the County-wide projections for 2036. Thisproposal is part of the land-use planning that the County is doing as part of the County's 2016 Comprehensive Plan amendmentprocess. The City and County are working together to meet GMA mandate to update the UGAs and Comprehensive Plans by June2016. The City is required to show that it can accommodate the 20 year population and employment projections adopted by theSCOG GMA Steering Committee or the City must expand its UGA to meet the 20 year projections. The City's BLA Report shows thatthe UGA must be expanded to meet the SCOG GMA Steering Committee's adopted growth projections; the proposal is necessary tomeet those projections.

Modifications to each jurisdiction's UGA are restricted by the SCC to one time between the periodic Washington State GMA-requiredCounty UGA reviews. It is now time for the required County UGA review, therefore it is the most appropriate time for the City tomodify its UGA to best meet the state mandate for cities to accommodate urban growth. In order for the City to accommodate long-term future growth needs, the city needs to grow to the north. Immediately north of city limits on State Route 9 are three parcelsthat are big enough to have good development potential. North of that is the Bottomless Lake neighborhood. This area is developedwith single family homes on 1-3 acres lots. The area is very desirable as it exists and there is little potential to sub-divide the areafurther. This area would likely be zoned for larger lots. North and west of the Bottomless Lake neighborhood there are much largerlots with excellent development potential. Ultimately, for the City to provide good development potential on large, developable lots,the City UGA needs to expand north and northwest by 100-200 acres, not by small chunks. The UGA needs to expand to the areawhere lots are big enough to be developed in an efficient manner.

This proposal includes the elimination of the existing UGA east of city limits, AKA the Wicker Road UGA. This area is approximately200 acres and can neither practicably nor economically be provided with the aforementioned urban amenities. The Wicker RoadUGA was allowed to be developed in such a manner under rural Skagit County development regulations; the area is rural. Becauseurban amenities, particularly sanitary sewer, is not available in the area, there is very little development potential in the area -despite the fact that the BLA Report indicates that there is buildable land in the area. Because the "developable land" (per the BLAReport) in the Wicker Road UGA is not actually developable, the City cannot realize its full UGA development potential. The City UGAneeds to provide land that is reasonably developable and can be served by urban services. The Wicker Road UGA cannot be servedby urban services unless the County pays into providing those services; services that the County did not require to be installed whenthe County permitted the development of the Wicker Road UGA. Furthermore, the residents of the Wicker Road UGA have noincentive to annex into the city limits because the area already has septic and Skagit County PUD water. There is no reason for anarea that cannot be served by City services and is not going to annex into the city to be included in the City UGA.

Page 5: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

form updated 7/1/2015 page 4 of 6

If the County commits to an accelerated timeframe to pay into urban infrastructure improvements in the Wicker Road UGA thatwould enable development and bring the area closer to being urban, then the City will not need to expand its UGA in other places.

3. Describe why existing Comprehensive Plan map designations should not continue to be in effect or why they no longer apply.

According to the City's BLA Report, additional inventory of industrial, commercial and residential land is necessary to accommodatethe SCOG-adopted 20 year projected employment and population estimates for Sedro-Woolley. To meet this goal, some land in theexisting unincorporated UGA will likely change from Urban Reserve Residential (URR) to Urban Reserve Commercial-Industrial (URC-I) to meet the needed commercial-industrial lands need. New additions to the UGA will likely be zoned mostly URR, with a smallamount of URC-I. The details of which properties are to be zoned URR or URC-I and where exactly new UGA land will be located isstill being determined through the public process in Sedro-Woolley. The city is planning for growth in the north of the city, and thisUGA reconfiguration is vital to the city’s plan for accommodating residential growth in accordance with the GMA and the populationallocations in the Countywide Planning Policies adopted by Skagit County. The city is unable to provide sewer services to the areasrecommended for removal from the UGA and the residents in those areas have little incentive to annex into the city because theyhave already developed their land and do not need services from the city make the land developable. Maps will be provided as soonas they are available upon completion of the Sedro-Woolley public review process.

4. Describe how the amendment complies with the Comprehensive Plan’s community vision statements, goals, objectives, and policydirectives.

The Skagit County Community Visioning Statement states that “This plan calls for efficient delivery of services in a cost-effective wayby: Concentrating infrastructure investments and service delivery to support development patterns near cities and towns where afull range of local services are or can be made available.” (Introduction – 1.6). Sedro-Woolley’s proposed UGA modification will allowthe city to better accommodate the growth accommodation mandate of the Skagit County Comprehensive Plan and the GMA. Theland proposed to be included in the UGA can readily be served by urban services, whereas the properties recommended for removalfrom the UGA cannot be readily served by urban services, particularly sewer.

The Community Visioning Statement supports private property rights (Introduction – 1.7). The city engaged in a vigorous publicreview process described in the application for County file PL13-0299. For that application, the owners of property that has beenrecommended for inclusion in the UGA have all requested that their property be included in the UGA. The City is currently holdingpublic hearings to complete review of the City's proposal. It is unfortunate that the public review process at the local level is yet tobe completed, but the City is committed to thorough public review of this proposal and needs more time to fully address thepotential issues and concerns of the public and property owners.

On page 1.7 of the Community Visioning Statement, open space areas are “lands with regional importance that have been set aside,dedicated, designated or reserved for public or private use or enjoyment for either active or passive recreation, scenic amenities,natural resources, or for the protection of environmentally sensitive areas.” The city-owned property proposed to be included in theUGA (Part 2 of application PL13-0299) and used for public uses meets intent of this description.

Goal A of the Skagit County Comprehensive Plan Urban, Open Space & Land-Use Element (Land-Use Element) is to: “Guide mostfuture develop into concentrated urban growth areas where adequate public facilities, utilities and services can be providedconsistent with the Countywide Planning Policies.” (Land-Use Element – 2.5). As explained above, Sedro-Woolley’s proposed UGAmodification will allow the city to better accommodate the growth accommodation mandate of the Skagit County ComprehensivePlan and the GMA. The land proposed to be included in the UGA can readily be served by urban services, whereas the propertiesrecommended for removal from the UGA cannot be readily served by urban services, particularly sewer.

Policy 2A-2.1 a) in the county Land-Use Element is to “ensure that adequate urban facilities and services are provided in UGAsconcurrent with urban development.” (Land-Use Element – 2.7). As elaborated above, the area recommended for inclusion in theUGA can be better served with city capital facilities and services than the area recommended for removal from the UGA.

Goal A-3 of the county Land-Use Element states “Within the designated UGAs, coordinate with the respective local jurisdictions andother service providers within the UGAs to ensure that growth and development are timed, phased and consistent with the adoptedurban level of service standards.” The proposed UGA modification allows for better provision of urban services in compliance withthis goal.

The ability for the city to provide better services to the proposed expanded UGA area than the removed area also conforms to thecounty Land-Use policies 2A-3.1 – 3.2. Policy 2A-3.1 reads: “Urban public facilities include: improved streets, roads, highways,sidewalks, road lighting systems and traffic signals; urban level domestic water systems, sanitary sewer systems, storm sewersystems, park and recreational facilities and schools as defined in the Capital Facilities Element with adopted level of servicestandards.” Policy 2A-3.2 reads: “Urban public services include fire protection and suppression; emergency medical services; public

Page 6: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

form updated 7/1/2015 page 5 of 6

safety; public health; education; recreation; environmental protection; and other services as identified in the Capital FacilitiesElement with adopted level of service standards.” (Land-Use Element – 2.7)

5. Describe the impacts anticipated to be caused by the change, including geographic area affected and issues presented.

The impacts will be minimal in the Wicker Road UGA. The area is already developed and removing the area from the UGA will notaffect a property owner's ability to build a single family house as they could today. No city services are available there, so if removedfrom the UGA, development of more than a SFR on a vacant lot is all that could be constructed there currently no matter how largethe parcel is. It is anticipated that additional development north of city limits in the area proposed for expansion along State Route 9will create additional traffic on Bassett Road and State Route 9. Additional traffic would also be anticipated as a result ofdevelopment in the area proposed for expansion along F&S Grade Road. Aesthetic changes and noise generated by residential useswould also be anticipated.

6. Describe how adopted functional plans and Capital Facilities Plans support the change.

The City has been anticipating growth to the north (and slightly west to F&S Grade Road) of City limits for decades. The City cannotexpand east, south or west (south and west of F&S Grade Road) because of AG-NRL designation and the presence of the flood andriver hazards. The City 2005 Comprehensive Sewer System Plan addresses development potential to the north of the existing Citylimits. The City recently completed a Fire station (Fire Station 2) at the north end of city limits, on State Route 9, in anticipation ofgrowth heading north. The modification does not affect the city’s fire and police departments to participate in the reciprocal serviceagreements with the local fire districts and County Sherriff’s Office respectively. The modification will not create any additionalservice burden on the Police and Fire Departments as they have already planned for the level of service necessary to serve theamount of population projected for 2036.

7. Describe any public review of the request that has already occurred.

The public hearing process is still ongoing; thus far the City has held three Planning Commission meetings April 21, June 16, July 21,2015 and a Public Hearing at Planning Commission May 19, 2015. Direct mailing, publishing in the newspaper and posting in City Halland on the City website are all tools that are being used or are planned to be used as part of the ongoing local review process.

8. Describe how the map amendment/rezone complies with Comprehensive Plan land use designation criteria in Chapter 2, theUrban, Open Space & Land Use Element; Chapter 3, the Rural Element; or Chapter 4, the Natural Resource Lands Element.

As detailed in response 4 above, the proposed UGA modification complies with the following Land-Use Element goals and policies.Goal A of the Skagit County Comprehensive Plan Urban, Open Space & Land-Use Element (Land-Use Element) is to: “Guide mostfuture develop into concentrated urban growth areas where adequate public facilities, utilities and services can be providedconsistent with the Countywide Planning Policies.” (Land-Use Element – 2.5). As explained in the responses above, Sedro-Woolley’sproposed UGA modification will allow the city to better accommodate the growth accommodation mandate of the Skagit CountyComprehensive Plan and the GMA. The land proposed to be included in the UGA can readily be served by urban services, whereasthe properties recommended for removal from the UGA cannot be readily served by urban services, particularly sewer.

Policy 2A-2.1 a) in the county Land-Use Element is to “ensure that adequate urban facilities and services are provided in UGAsconcurrent with urban development.” (Land-Use Element – 2.7). As elaborated above, the area recommended for inclusion in theUGA can be better served with city capital facilities and services than the area recommended for removal from the UGA. Goal A-3 ofthe county Land-Use Element is to “Within the designated UGAs, coordinate with the respective local jurisdictions and other serviceproviders within the UGAs to ensure that growth and development are timed, phased and consistent with the adopted urban level ofservice standards.” The ability for the city to provide better services to the added area than the removed area also conform to thecounty Land-Use policies 2A-3.1 – 3.2. Policy 2A-3.1 reads: “Urban public facilities include: improved streets, roads, highways,sidewalks, road lighting systems and traffic signals; urban level domestic water systems, sanitary sewer systems, storm sewersystems, park and recreational facilities and schools as defined in the Capital Facilities Element with adopted level of servicestandards.” Policy 2A-3.2 reads: Urban public services include fire protection and suppression; emergency medical services; publicsafety; public health; education; recreation; environmental protection; and other services as identified in the Capital FacilitiesElement with adopted level of service standards (Land-Use Element – 2.7).

The proposed UGA modification is compliant with the Rural Lands Element of the Comprehensive Plan. Goal A-3 of the Rural LandsElement of the Skagit County Comprehensive Plan is: “Assure that public facilities, services, roads and utilities are properly plannedfor and if provided, consistent with the rural character, needs and lifestyles.” (Rural Lands Element – 3.6). The area proposed to beincluded in the UGA is adjacent to the city limits. There is a city fire station located on the lot just south of the proposed area ofexpansion. City sewer is available in the road up to the southern limits of the expansion area and can be extended to a large part ofthe expansion area without the need for a pump station (lift station). The greater part of the proposed expansion is uphill from thecity, making the provision of sewer easier by use of gravity and fewer lift stations. The area proposed to be removed from the UGAcannot be as easily served by the fire department and a pump station is necessary to serve sewer to that area.

Page 7: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

form updated 7/1/2015 page 6 of 6

9. Population forecasts and distributions.

If you are proposing an urban growth area boundary change, describe how it is supported by and dependent on populationforecasts and allocated urban population distributions, existing urban densities and infill opportunities, phasing and availabilityof adequate services, proximity to designated natural resource lands, and the presence of critical areas.

If you are proposing a rural areas or natural resource land map designation change, describe how it is supported by anddependent on population forecasts and allocated non-urban population distributions, existing rural area and natural resourceland densities and infill opportunities.

The Sedro-Woolley Buildable Land & Land Capacity Analysis (BLA Report), prepared by E.D. Hovee & Company specifically addressesthis question. See attached BLA Report. No natural resource lands are affected by this proposal.

10. If you are proposing a natural resource land map designation change, describe how the change is necessary based on one ormore of the following:

(A) A change in circumstances pertaining to the Comprehensive Plan or public policy.

(B) A change in circumstances beyond the control of the landowner pertaining to the subject property.

(C) An error in initial designation.

(D) New information on natural resource land or critical area status.

No natural resource lands are affected by this proposal.

Notices

Fees. For review that requires more than 80 hours of staff time, the applicant will be billed at the hourly rate as shown on the fee

schedule.

Refunds. If an application is not approved for further review under SCC 14.08.030(2), or when an application is withdrawn orreturned before such a preliminary decision is made, a refund of not more than 80% may be authorized by the Planning andDevelopment Services Director. Refunds must be requested in writing within 180 days of the date the fee is collected.

SEPA. The SEPA checklist and fee, if required, are due upon request from the Department if the Board of County Commissioners

dockets this application for further consideration. This application may be considered complete without payment of the SEPA fee.

Docketing. SCC Chapter 14.08 governs the process for docketing of Comprehensive Plan amendments. Docketing is procedural only

and does not constitute a decision by the Board of County Commissioners as to whether the amendment will ultimately be

approved. Amendments are usually concluded by the end of the year following the request. State law generally prohibits the County

from amending its Comprehensive Plan more than once per year.

Submission deadline. A complete application for a map amendment must be received by the last business day of July for docketing.

Requests received after that date will not be considered until the following year’s docket.

How to Submit. Submit your requests via email (preferred) to [email protected] or to Planning & Development

Services at the address above.

Page 8: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

E. D. Hovee& Company, LLC

2408 Main Street • P.O. Box 225 • Vancouver, WA 98666(360) 696-9870 • (503) 230-1414 • Fax (360) 696-8453

E-mail: [email protected]

Economic and Development Services

MMEEMMOORRAANNDDUUMM

To: John Coleman, AICP, Planning Director, Sedro-Woolley Planning Department

From: Eric Hovee & Andrea Logue

Subject: Sedro-Woolley Buildable Land & Land Capacity Analysis Report

Date: July 16, 2015

On behalf of the City of Sedro-Woolley, the economic and development consulting firm E. D.Hovee & Company, LLC (EDH) has prepared this buildable land and land capacity analysis reportas part of the City’s Comprehensive Plan update which also involves review of urban growtharea (UGA) boundaries. The analysis is intended to meet requirements of the Skagit CountyCode (Chapter 14.08 SCC) together with Skagit County Planning Policies and City of Sedro-Woolley planning policies.

This report is focused on evaluating the relationship of the buildable capacity to projected needfor commercial/industrial (employment) and residential uses over an approximately 20-yearplanning horizon to 2036. Based on the allotment of the Skagit County Council of Governments(SCOG), Growth Management Steering Committee, Sedro-Woolley’s population is projected toincrease to 17,069 by 2036, a gain of 4,555 residents. Employment is forecast to increase by1,572 for a total of 6,324 jobs. Pivotal questions to address are whether, and under whatcircumstances, land capacity will be adequate to accommodate these projections.

This report is organized to cover the following topics:

Land use methodology – including zoning classifications, role of public lands, propertydevelopment status, critical areas/constraints, and analysis assumptions.

Buildable land and capacity analysis – covering results of the buildable land inventory,land capacity, and comparison of capacity with SCOG population and job allocations.

Findings and recommendations – including policy options for City consideration.

Two appendices are provided at the end of this report. Appendix A lists documents that havebeen reviewed for this analysis. Appendix B provides residential and commercial/industrialinventory maps. This report reflects revisions that have been made in response to questionsand comments received on an earlier draft document.

Page 9: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

E.D. Hovee & Company, LLC for the City of Sedro-Woolley:Sedro-Woolley Buildable Land & Land Capacity Analysis Report Page 2

LLAANNDD AANNAALLYYSSIISS MMEETTHHOODDOOLLOOGGYY

This buildable land and capacity analysis has relied on geographic information system (GIS)parcel-based files as provided by the City and available from the Skagit County assessor’s office.Where existing databases were in conflict or without adequate information, other means wereutilized to clarify and augment the data available. This included visual review via aerialphotography, used most notably to designate current development status.

The analysis also has been prepared in a manner to conform to a methodology agreed upon byjurisdictions in Skagit County. Of particular importance has been reference to the 2010Buildable Lands & Land Capacity Analysis Report by the City of Mount Vernon Community andEconomic Development Department. Also of use for methodology and the industrial landsportion of the analysis was a countywide Skagit County Industrial Land Study completed byECONorthwest in December 2014. Other information sources utilized are as noted in this reportand Appendix A.

Factors important to the land analysis methodology for this report begin with Sedro-Woolley’szoning classifications as found in the Sedro-Woolley Zoning Code. This review is followed bydiscussion of the role of public lands for employment use, definitions related to developmentstatus and critical areas/constraints, and then summary assumptions utilized for residential andemployment lands.

Zoning ClassificationsZoning classifications are those as identified with the City of Sedro-Woolley Zoning Code:

Residential Zones:

Residential 5 (R5) – for single-family use at up to 5 dwelling units (DU) per acre Residential 7 (R7) – primarily single-family at up to 7 DU per acre Residential 15 (R15) – allowing single- and multi-family uses at 4-15 DU per acre

Employment Zones:

Mixed Commercial (MC) – encouraging a mix of commercial with upper level residential Central Business District (CBD) – allowing all forms of commerce with multi-family

housing on upper levels or independent, at 2-4 DU per building for specified locations Industrial (I) – intended for manufacturing, warehousing, distribution and office uses

Public & Open Space Zones:

Public (P) – for parks, schools, public infrastructure and related public use Open Space (OS) – for parks, recreation, public infrastructure and related public use

Page 10: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

E.D. Hovee & Company, LLC for the City of Sedro-Woolley:Sedro-Woolley Buildable Land & Land Capacity Analysis Report Page 3

While residential zones allow home occupations, this analysis assumes that employmentgrowth will be accommodated primarily on commercially and industrially zoned land.Conversely, while residential use is allowed with limitations in the MC and CBD commercialzones, there has been little such development to date and no residential development isallocated to these lands over the forecast period of this plan update.

Role of Public Lands For Employment UsePublic lands serve as a potential resource for employment in two respects. First, a significant(approximate 36% share) of the net job growth allocated by SCOG for Sedro-Woolley is forecastto comprise government and education employment. While some of this job growth as forschools may occur on land zoned for public use, most of the growth for City and other agenciescan be expected to occur primarily on lands designated for commercial and industrial use.

Second, while the Northern State site is currently zoned for Public (P) use, it is anticipated thatsubarea planning for this site may include allocation for net added employment uses. Based ondiscussions with SCOG, all of this job growth may be considered as outside the SCOG allocation,as with targeted high technology/bioenergy sectors that otherwise would not be expected tolocate in Sedro-Woolley. The Northern State Subarea Plan and Environmental Process involvesconsideration of alternatives affecting intensity of employment related development and isproceeding separately from this buildable land and land capacity analysis.

In summary, for purposes of this analysis it is assumed that: a) most or all public employmentgrowth may need to be accommodated on industrial and commercial lands; and b) any addedemployment with the Northern State site will constitute a new and separate jobs allocationfrom SCOG not included with this buildable land analysis.

Development StatusAs stated in the Skagit County Industrial Land Study, a key step in the buildable land analysis isto classify each tax lot into a set of mutually exclusive categories. This determination ofdevelopment status represents an important first step in the analysis process for commercialand residential, as well as industrial, lands. With this analysis, all tax lots within the currentSedro-Woolley UGA have been classified into one of the following categories:

Vacant land. Tax lots that have no structures, or have buildings with very little value. Forthe Sedro-Woolley buildable land analysis, tax lots with improvement values under$10,000 are considered vacant. This designation was determined after review ofalternative definitions used, is consistent with the Skagit County industrial study, and isapplied to not just industrial, but also residential and commercial lands. This approachalso avoids the need to determine habitable structures (as was done in Mount Vernon),which can be relatively time-consuming. As needed, site-by-site determinations havebeen made through review of GIS data, aerial photographs, and review by City staff.

Page 11: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

E.D. Hovee & Company, LLC for the City of Sedro-Woolley:Sedro-Woolley Buildable Land & Land Capacity Analysis Report Page 4

Partially vacant land. Partially vacant tax lots are those that are occupied, but whichcontain enough land to be further subdivided without rezoning. As needed, site-by-sitedeterminations have been made through review of GIS data, aerial photographs, andreview by City staff.

Unbuildable land. Land that is impacted by critical lands or constraints that precludedevelopment. A tax lot is classified as unbuildable if: a) it is more than 90% constrained(per the Skagit County industrial study); b) involves less than 10,000 square feet ofbuildable land for employment land; and/or c) does not have land to accommodate thezoned density of development in a residential zone on a lot with less than 10,000buildable square feet.

Developed land. Land that is already developed at densities consistent with zoning, andhas improvements that make it unlikely to redevelop during the analysis period. Landsnot classified as vacant, partially vacant, or unbuildable are considered as developed.

Critical Areas/ConstraintsCritical areas or constraints intersecting tax lots are deducted from tax lot area. The followinglist identifies the constraint and method of deduction from buildable land area:

Floodway – all affected area is deducted and considered unbuildable. Slope Instability – all area affected by high probability of slope instability deducted and

considered unbuildable. River/Stream/Creek Buffers – all affected area deducted and considered unbuildable. Bonneville Power Administration Easement (262.5 Feet) – all affected area deducted

and considered unbuildable. Puget Sound Energy Easement (100 Feet) – all affected area deducted and considered

unbuildable. Williams Pipeline Easement (75 Feet) – all affected area deducted as unbuildable. Wetlands – deduction of 50% of the buildable area of affected tax lots. This analysis was

informed by use wetland data provided by the City in the form of the National WetlandsInventory and ATSI data created by a wetland specialist to indicate areas that are likelyto be wetlands based on visual confirmation and known soil types.

100 Year Floodplain – deduction of 50% of the buildable area of affected tax lots.

AssumptionsIn addition to factors related to development status and critical areas/constraints, there are avariety of other considerations important to the land capacity evaluation – related to density ofdevelopment, infrastructure and market factors, plus factors distinctive to the type ofresidential, employment and public/open space uses being considered. Provided on thefollowing two pages is a summary outline of key assumptions, factors and metrics consideredand applied with this 2105 Sedro-Woolley Buildable Land and Land Capacity Report.

Page 12: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

E.D. Hovee & Company, LLC for the City of Sedro-Woolley:Sedro-Woolley Buildable Land & Land Capacity Analysis Report Page 5

Summary of Assumptions Applied with Residential, Employment & Public LandsFactor Allocation(s) Comments

ALL PARCELS IN SEDRO-WOOLLEY(Residential, Employment & Other Lands)

Utilizes City GIS datasets including city/UGA boundaries,parcel boundaries, zoning designations, streams, criticalareas (flood/wetlands), streets, railroad, BPA and naturalgas pipeline, as well as Skagit County Comp Plandesignations and Washington State Department ofNatural Resources for slope stability GIS data.

RESIDENTIAL LANDS(R-5, R-7, R-15 Zones)

Covers three zones allocated exclusively for residentialuse. While residential is allowed in some employmentareas, no capacity allocation appears to be made in thecurrent Comp Plan (for 4,555 added residents by 2036).

ResidentialCapacity(in acres forhousing units)

= parcel size (acres)- existing land in use- critical areas- infrastructure- market factor

# of added units on parcel is determined by dividingresidential capacity (in acres) by maximum units/acrewith zoning – rounded down to nearest whole number.As needed, spot check parcels w/existing units to makesure configuration allows for added units.

Maximum Density(Residential)

R-5: 5 units/acR-7: 7 units/acR-15: 15 units/ac

Consistent with current Comp Plan, Section 2.12.Duplexes are permitted with R-7 zone @ approx 10 du/acbut limited to only one duplex lot per 3 successive lots;no adjustment to maximum density calculation proposed.

AverageHousehold Size

2.59 persons peroccupied household

Average household size is per Washington State Office ofFinancial Management (OFM), with 92.9% occupancy.

Critical Areas /Constraints

Deducted out ofgross parcel area

Includes critical areas of floodway, Brickyard Creek plusassociated buffers, slope instability, utilities, wetlandsand floodplain. Mount Vernon tested implications of40%/60% of wetland area as undevelopable; a 50% factorfor wetlands/floodplain is applied for Sedro-Woolley.

Infrastructure 25% infrastructurededuction on all lots

Consistent with current adopted Comp Plan; allocationsare made after known critical area deductions.

Minimum Lot Size < 90% constrainedw/ 1+ buildable lots

Threshold buildable lot size determined based on themaximum allowed density of each residential zone plus25% infrastructure requirement.

Market Factors15% vacant land20% lots w/structure

Used Mount Vernon standard, which is below the currentSedro-Woolley Comp Plan allocation of 25%.

Employment inResidential Zones

No allocationproposed

Home occupations permitted and offices conditional usesin all residential zones (permitted in R-15; provisionsmore liberal for other employment uses in R-7/R-15).No adjustment for employment in residential is proposed.

PlannedResidentialDevelopments

No adjustmentproposed

Zoning allows as conditional use in R-5/R-7 zones;capacity calculations treated no differently than otherresidential development in the same zones.

Page 13: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

E.D. Hovee & Company, LLC for the City of Sedro-Woolley:Sedro-Woolley Buildable Land & Land Capacity Analysis Report Page 6

Factor Allocation(s) CommentsEMPLOYMENT LANDS(MC – Mixed Commercial,CBD – Central Business District,I – Industrial)

Covers 3 zoning districts for existing business expansionand new industrial/commercial development (toaccommodate 1,572 added jobs by 2036).

Employment LandCapacity(in acres for jobs)

= parcel size (acres)- existing land in use- critical areas- infrastructure- market factor

# of added jobs on parcel is determined by dividingemployment land capacity (in acres) by maximumapplicable jobs/acre – rounded down to nearest wholenumber. Spot check parcels w/existing businesses tomake sure configuration allows for added development.

EmploymentDensity

6.5 jobs/ac industrial20 jobs/ac comm’l& government

No job targets or density estimates in existing Comp Plan.Proposal matches Mount Vernon, job density standardsof 1995 Skagit Co OEDP & 2003 countywide allocations.

Critical Areas /Constraints

Deducted out ofgross parcel area

Includes critical areas of floodway, Brickyard Creek plusassociated buffers, slope instability, utilities, wetlandsand floodplain. Mount Vernon tested implications of40%/60% of wetland area as undevelopable; a 50% factorfor wetlands/floodplain is applied for Sedro-Woolley.

Infrastructure 25% infrastructurededuction on all lots

Consistent with current adopted Sedro-Woolley CompPlan; above 20% EDH deduction for Mount Vernon.Allocations made after known critical area deductions.

Minimum Lot Size 10,000 sf (and < 90%constrained)

Consistent with Mount Vernon capacity analysis asminimum size for stand-alone uses.

Market Factor 25% deduction Matches existing Sedro-Woolley Comp Plan and factorrecommended by EDH with 2006 Mount Vernon analysis.

Job Allocationsby Zone

Retail jobs to C zonesIndustrial jobs to IOffice jobs flex to C/IPublic jobs to Public

CBD/MC zones focus on retail & general (office) servicesas permitted uses, also includes light mfg in MC zone.I zone permitted for mfg, warehousing, distribution &office uses with limited retail at up to 5% of total site.

Housing inEmployment Zones

No allocationproposed

Residential above first story commercial permitted in MC,Transitional MC zones, and CBD zones; multi-family @ 2-4units per building permitted on secondary CBD streets;little such development to date & no allocation proposed.

PUBLIC / OPEN SPACE LANDS Covers Public and Open Space zoning designations.

Inventory

= Gross acres by zoneNote: Deductplanned conversionsof other zones topublic use

Covers land associated with all Public and Open Spacezoned sites including the subarea planning process nowunderway with the Public-zoned Northern State UGA site.Analysis for Northern State site being conducted via aseparate planning process for Sedro-Woolley.

EmploymentAllocation

Public employmentjob growth allocatedto industrial &commercial lands

Policy option for some portion of public sector (as withschools) employment to be allocated to Public zonedland. Potential for added R&D, tech or related jobs atNorthern State to be determined (as an add-on to Sedro-Woolley’s current jobs allocation by Skagit County).

Page 14: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

E.D. Hovee & Company, LLC for the City of Sedro-Woolley:Sedro-Woolley Buildable Land & Land Capacity Analysis Report Page 7

BBUUIILLDDAABBLLEE LLAANNDD && CCAAPPAACCIITTYY AANNAALLYYSSIISS

Consistent with the methodology as described, this analysis begins with findings of thebuildable land inventory, followed by determination of land capacity in terms of potentialresidential dwelling units (DU) and employment supported. As a final step, capacity figures arecompared with SCOG allocations to determine adequacy of the current UGA to supportprojected housing and employment land needs.

Buildable Land InventoryAs depicted by the following chart, tax lots within the Sedro-Woolley UGA encompass just over3,134 acres. An estimated 62% of the UGA is already developed with about 9% as unbuildableor constrained, leaving 29% of the UGA (912 acres) as potentially buildable – whether on fullyvacant or partially vacant lots. The 912 acres can be considered as gross land capacity – beforetaking into account infrastructure and market factors to arrive at net developable capacity.

Sedro-Woolley UGA Land Inventory (Parcel-Based in Acres)Developed Part Vacant Total

Zone Land Unbuildable Constrained Buildable Buildable All ParcelsResidential 5 (R5) 612.9 32.5 67.7 176.8 204.8 1,094.6Residential 7 (R7) 458.5 16.7 8.7 55.4 47.7 587.0Residential 15 (R15) 57.6 0.8 0.3 13.7 9.5 81.8Mixed Commercial (MC) 146.0 3.8 9.6 63.6 16.5 239.5Central Business District (CBD) 62.2 4.7 0.0 8.0 1.2 76.1Industrial (I) 128.5 0.1 13.2 47.5 9.7 199.0Public (P) 462.9 21.7 95.9 251.2 0.0 831.6Open Space (OS) 14.3 3.7 0.0 6.8 0.0 24.8Total 1,942.8 83.9 195.4 623.0 289.3 3,134.4% of Acres 62% 3% 6% 20% 9% 100%

Vacant Land by Type

Sources: City of Sedro-Woolley and E. D. Hovee & Company, LLC.

When considered by zoning designation, R5 residential accounts for the single largest amountof land area – totaling 1,095 acres or 35% of total land area in Sedro-Woolley. Taken together,residentially zoned areas represent a bit more than 56% of land in the UGA, with public/openspace land at 27% and employment lands (both commercial and industrial) at a combined 16%.

In terms of potentially buildable land, residentially designated sites account for 508 acres of thegross buildable acreage potential, followed by public/open space lands at 258 acres, andemployment lands at just over 146 acres.

Page 15: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

E.D. Hovee & Company, LLC for the City of Sedro-Woolley:Sedro-Woolley Buildable Land & Land Capacity Analysis Report Page 8

Land CapacityPotentially buildable lands are translated to residential and employment capacity through atwo-step process:

By deducting from buildable capacity land required for infrastructure and a marketfactor (to convert from gross to net buildable acreage); and

Then converting acreage capacity to number of residential units and jobs supportedusing dwelling unit (DU) and jobs per acre density factors.

The results of this allocation and conversion process are illustrated by the following chart.

Sedro-Woolley UGA Land & Employment Capacity (to 2036)% Infra- Acres Net Jobs/ DU/

Zone Vacant Pt Vacant Total structure Vacant Pt Vacant Buildable Acre Acre Jobs DUR5 176.8 204.8 381.6 25% 15% 20% 235.6 - 5.0 - 1,177R7 55.4 47.7 103.1 25% 15% 20% 63.9 - 7.0 - 447R15 13.7 9.5 23.2 25% 15% 20% 14.4 - 15.0 - 216MC 63.6 16.5 80.1 25% 25% 25% 45.1 20.0 - 901 -CBD 8.0 1.2 9.2 25% 25% 25% 5.2 20.0 - 103 -I 47.5 9.7 57.2 25% 25% 25% 32.2 6.5 - 209 -P 251.2 - 251.2 - - - - - - - -OS 6.8 - 6.8 - - - - - - - -Total 623.0 289.3 912.3 25% 15% 25% 396.3 1,213 1,840

92.9%1,709

2.594,427

Occupied Unit CapacityAverage Household Size (persons per occupied household)Anticipated Population Capacity (added population to 2036)

Added Capacity

Dwelling Unit (DU) to Population Conversion:Residential Occupancy Factor (% of all Units)

Gross Buildable Acres Market Factors

Note: No jobs are allocated to P or OS lands with this buildable land analysis.Employment potentials with the Northern State site are being addressed separately by the City of Sedro-Woolley.

Source: City of Sedro-Woolley, Washington State Office of FinancialManagement, and E. D. Hovee & Company, LLC.

As shown, net buildable acreage on residential and employment designated lands is estimatedat approximately 396 acres. A net buildable figure is not estimated for Public/Open Space lands,though this is anticipated to occur with the Northern State subarea planning process nowunderway, separate from this land capacity analysis.

Using residential density factors consistent with current zoning, there is resulting capacity foran estimated 1,840 housing units. As is detailed at the bottom of the chart, this translates tocapacity for an added 4,427 residents that could be accommodated in the UGA to 2036.

For employment, density factors are applied as consistent with prior countywide economicdevelopment planning and the more recent Mount Vernon land capacity analysis. Total

Page 16: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

E.D. Hovee & Company, LLC for the City of Sedro-Woolley:Sedro-Woolley Buildable Land & Land Capacity Analysis Report Page 9

employment capacity within industrial and commercial zones of the UGA is estimated at 1,213jobs.

Comparing Capacity with AllocationsThe final step of the analysis is to compare employment and population capacity with the SCOGallocated targets to Sedro-Woolley. As depicted by the following chart, this comparisonindicates an allocation of residential land that may be slightly under the SCOG allocation. Forjobs, the “gap” between the forecast target and current land capacity is more substantial.

Comparison of Capacity to SCOG Population / Job Allocations (to 2036)

Zoning Types Gross Net* Jobs/Ac DU/Ac Jobs Housing PopulationResidential 507.8 313.9 - 5.9 - 1,840 4,427Commercial 89.3 50.2 20.0 - 1,004 - -Industrial 57.2 32.2 6.5 - 209 - -Public - - - - - - -Total 654.3 396.3 1,213 1,840 4,427

1,572 - 4,55577% - 97%

Added Capacity

Sedro-Woolley Allocated Targets (per SCOG)Capacity as % of SCOG Allocation

Buildable Acres Average Density

Note: Employment potentials for public lands are addressed separately with the Northern State subarea plan.Sources: City of Sedro-Woolley, Skagit County Council of Governments, and E. D. Hovee & Company, LLC.

As shown by the chart:

Employment capacity is estimated at 77% of the SCOG target (or 23% below the 1,572jobs determined by SCOG as Sedro-Woolley’s employment allocation). Due to thesignificance of the gap between planned employment growth and current zonedcapacity, reaching the SCOG employment target likely will require designation ofadditional lands for industrial and/or commercial development.

Population capacity is estimated at just over 97% of the SCOG allocation of an added4,555 residents by 2036. Given the margin of variability with pivotal assumptions in theanalysis, it would appear that Sedro-Woolley should also be able to reasonably meet itspopulation allocation, including possible minor adjustments to land designations orportions of the buildable land capacity analysis framework.

FFIINNDDIINNGGSS && PPOOLLIICCYY OOPPTTIIOONNSS

Based on the analysis conducted with this buildable land and land capacity analysis, thefollowing summary findings and policy options are outlined for consideration by the City ofSedro-Woolley.

Page 17: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

E.D. Hovee & Company, LLC for the City of Sedro-Woolley:Sedro-Woolley Buildable Land & Land Capacity Analysis Report Page 10

FindingsOverall, this 2015 buildable land and land capacity analysis indicates that the current inventoryof buildable land is expected to be inadequate to fully address Sedro-Woolley’s population andemployment growth targets to 2036 without the need for urban growth area (UGA) expansion:

Residential lands are within about 3% of achieving the SCOG target of accommodatingan added 4,555 residents by 2036. Getting to 100% should be achievable with fairlymodest measures, as outlined below with policy options recommended forconsideration.

Employment lands fall 23% short of meeting the SCOG target of 1,572 added jobsallocated to Sedro-Woolley through 2036. Industrial and commercial lands canaccommodate an estimated 1,213 jobs, which is 359 jobs below the SCOG allocation.

There may also be concerns with the mix of jobs for Sedro-Woolley. An estimated 209net added jobs can be accommodated with net buildable industrial acreage. This is 43%short of the SCOG indicated projection of 368 added industrial jobs for Sedro-Woolley –as part of the forecast 1,572 job growth total.

Policy OptionsTo conclude, the following policy options are outlined for consideration as possible measures toaddress potential issues as noted with the findings of this analysis:

For Residential Lands. Policy options to consider for addressing the approximately 3%shortfall in housing might include any or some combination of the following:

Consider adjusting one or more of the assumptions used with the methodology in thisanalysis – related to such factors as definitions for developable status, criticalareas/constraints, infrastructure or market factor, or assumed average household size.

Up-zone some residential property to a higher density – for example to R15 multi-family, currently comprising only 5% of the residential net buildable land supply.

Convert a small amount of acreage currently zoned for public/open space oremployment use to residential – but only to the extent that employment land needs arealso fully addressed.

Provide for a relatively minor UGA expansion – possibly in the range of 10+/- buildableacres depending on the mix of residential zoning and associated building densities thatmight be considered.

Provide for a more significant UGA expansion – if some lands currently designated forresidential use are rezoned for commercial and/or industrial use as described below.The amount of land that might be required is not directly determinable at this point, butwould depend, in part, on the mix of commercial versus industrial employment to beaccommodated.

Page 18: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

E.D. Hovee & Company, LLC for the City of Sedro-Woolley:Sedro-Woolley Buildable Land & Land Capacity Analysis Report Page 11

For Employment Lands. Policy options to address the estimated 23% shortfall of industrialand commercial employment potential may include any or some combination of the following:

Modify some portion of the methodology and/or assumptions regarding employmentlands evaluation – similar to what is outlined above for residential lands.

Expand the supply of land effectively available for industrial use through such means asproviding for more liberalized industrial use in one or both commercial zones.

Increase the supply of industrial and/or commercial land by re-designating someexisting residentially-zoned land for employment use. This option may of particularimportance to the extent that some existing buildable residential sites are determinedto be more suitable for industrial or commercial uses as compared with sites requiringUGA expansion. Re-zoning for employment use would require an offsetting addition ofresidential land through UGA expansion as described above.

Expand the UGA to address the deficiency of land for industrial and commercial needs.The amount of added UGA needed will vary, in part, depending on the mix of industrialversus commercial land allocated. For example, assuming that all of the employmentdeficiency were to be addressed by UGA expansion, the amount of buildable landrequired could range from about 18 buildable acres (assuming 100% commercialdesignation) to 55 buildable acres (with 100% industrial designation) – or in-betweenwith a mix of commercial and industrial designations.

Due to the size of the “gap” between the number of jobs that can be accommodated ascompared with the 2036 requirement, it is unlikely that this need can be met unless residentiallands are converted to employment use and/or the UGA is expanded to provide addedemployment land.

Page 19: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

E.D. Hovee & Company, LLC for the City of Sedro-Woolley:Sedro-Woolley Buildable Land & Land Capacity Analysis Report Page 12

AAPPPPEENNDDIIXX AA.. DDOOCCUUMMEENNTTSS RREEVVIIEEWWEEDD

The following documents were review in conducting this buildable land and land capacityanalysis:

2010 Buildable Lands & Land Capacity Analysis Report by the City of Mount VernonCommunity and Economic Development Department.

Sedro-Woolley Municipal Code, Title 17 Zoning, as of March 25, 2015. Skagit County Code, Chapter 14.08 – Legislative Actions. Skagit County Growth Projections: Summary of Methods and Results, prepared by BERK

Consulting, July 2014. Skagit County Industrial Land Study – Final Report, prepared by ECONorthwest for the

Port of Skagit, December 2014. Shoreline Management Program Update – Preliminary Assessment of Shoreline

Jurisdiction, City of Sedro-Woolley, Draft June 2011. Vacant Buildable Lands Model by Clark County Community Planning.

Page 20: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

E.D. Hovee & Company, LLC for the City of Sedro-Woolley:Sedro-Woolley Buildable Land & Land Capacity Analysis Report Page 13

AAPPPPEENNDDIIXX BB.. RREESSIIDDEENNTTIIAALL && CCOOMMMMEERRCCIIAALL//IINNDDUUSSTTRRIIAALL IINNVVEENNTTOORRYY MMAAPPSS

On the next four pages are maps of vacant and partially vacant land as follows:

Commercial and industrial tax lots with buildable land Commercial and industrial buildable land with constraints Residential tax lots with buildable land Residential buildable land with constraints

The maps depict the entire tax lot with vacant and partially vacant land, not just the portion ofthe tax lot that is buildable after removing constrained and developed land.

Page 21: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

E.D. Hovee & Company, LLC for the City of Sedro-Woolley:Sedro-Woolley Buildable Land & Land Capacity Analysis Report Page 14

Page 22: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

E.D. Hovee & Company, LLC for the City of Sedro-Woolley:Sedro-Woolley Buildable Land & Land Capacity Analysis Report Page 15

Page 23: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

E.D. Hovee & Company, LLC for the City of Sedro-Woolley:Sedro-Woolley Buildable Land & Land Capacity Analysis Report Page 16

Page 24: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

E.D. Hovee & Company, LLC for the City of Sedro-Woolley:Sedro-Woolley Buildable Land & Land Capacity Analysis Report Page 17

Page 25: John Coleman, AICP Planning Director Sedro-Woolley ... · Name John Coleman - Planning Director Organization City of Sedro-Woolley Address 325 Metcalf Street City, State Sedro-Woolley,

COLL

INS

COOK

RIVER

FRUI

TDAL

E

STATE HOEHN

MINKLER

F & S GRADE

STATE ROUTE 20

SAPP

TALCOTT

BASSETT

TOW

NSHI

PST

ATE R

OUTE

9

POLTE

WARNER

BALL

HELM

ICK

CULLY

GRIP

JAMESON

WICKER

REED

FIFTH

THIR

D BENNETT

FIDALGOSIXTH

HUB

UNIO

N

STERLING

FERRY

METC

ALF

PUGE

T

MCGARIGLE

BIRCH

RHOD

ES

FOUR

TH

RATC

HFOR

D

KLINGER

ALEXANDER

TRAI

L

NORTHERNCENT

RAL

GARD

EN O

F EDE

N

SORE

N

RIDGE

RAILROADMU

RDOC

K

TENT

H

ORTH

NELSON

LAFAYETTE

WEST STATE

ALPINE

JOHN LINER

RITA

EIGHT

H

HODGIN

JENNINGS

CHASE

SEVE

NTH

BURMASTER

STILES

DELV

AN H

ILL

CURT

IS

MARSHALL

MORRIS

EAST JONES

AVERY

KIENS

HAIN

ES

THOMPSON

NORT

H RE

ED

SOUT

H TH

IRD DUNLOP

NORTHERN STATE

MUNRO

SUNSET PARKMAPLE

BREIE

R

KELLEHER

HOSPITAL

EVANS

LONGTIME

PLANTERS

WALDRON

PEAV

EY

PACIFIC

HOLT

CAMP

ROWLAND

PORTOBELLO

EAST

ERN

PROS

PECT

WALL

EY

KATH

Y

NORT

H SA

PP

MARIE

BRIC

KYAR

D

HYATT

COVE

BATE

Y

HELE

N

CHER

YL

ARREZO

NORT

H MU

RDOC

K

CEDAR

SHOESHEL

SPRIN

G

WESTVIEW

ROLLING RIDGE

BEACHLEY

ADRI

ANCULTUS MOUNTAIN

GREE

NSTR

EET

HENS

ON

BRIC

K

FRANKS

HEATHER

DANA

BURROWS

HAWT

HORN

MICHAEL

SOUT

H EL

EVEN

TH

WILDFLOWER

YELLOW

MEDCALF

SHEIL

A

JENN

Y

HARRISON

DEBBIE

INDEPENDENCE

CHESTER

DALT

ON

CABE

GREENOUGH

STER

LING

SAPP

CULL

YLegend

Urban Growth AreaCity LimitsStreetsStreamsParcels

Zoning AreasZONE

Central Business DistrictIndustrialMixed Commercial (MC)Open SpacePublicResidential-15Residential-7Residential-5Transitional MC Overlay

µ0 2,000 4,0001,000 Feet

City of Sedro-WoolleyPropoposed UGA

Amendments2016 Countywide UGA

Review Cycle

City of Sedro-WoolleyDraft Map 1

July 31, 2015

Add approximately 50 acres(Green Area)

Add approximately232 acresGreen Area developableYellow Area County Pit

Remove approximately200 acres(Blue Area)