Joern fischer beijing3

Prof. Joern Fischer

Email: [email protected] Blog: http://ideas4sustainability.wordpress.com/ Twitter: @ideas4sust

Integration by Place, Case and Process Landscape Sustainability Science in Transylvania (Romania)

Outline of today’s talk   “Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of

the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” World Commission on Environment and Sustainable Development 1987

  Why we need sustainability science   Why focus on the landscape scale

  Case study in Transylvania   Findings from five years of research on biodiversity, social change,

and the interrelationship between the two   Future directions

Source: igbp.net

Rockstrom et al. 2009, Nature

Problem 1: Planetary boundaries have been surpassed

Problem 2: Social justice is still lacking

Sources: Oxfam 2012

Sustainability science   Normative and problem-driven: “sustainability is good”   Interested in coupled human-environment systems

Recognises interactions across scales (space and time) Characterised by:

Interdisciplinarity: the merging of multiple disciplines Transdisciplinarity: the integration non-research actors

  An evolving “arena” of science

e.g. Kates et al. 2001, Science

Why focus on the landscape scale?   Landscapes are meaningful both socially and ecologically

  “community” ≈ “landscape”

  Larger scales (e.g. “nations”) tend to aggregate important information   e.g. GDP masks regional differences in wealth   e.g. number of red-listed species might be all in one part of the country, or distributed throughout it

  Smaller scales (e.g. “patches” or “households”) are highly idiosyncratic   Patterns only become apparent when they are aggregated

Integration by place, case, and process 1.  Choosing the place worth studying (problem-inspired)

2.  Defining study cases/units, for all disciplines = here, villages

3.  Establishing flexible processes for

ongoing integration: -  Emphasis on small-team work -  Frequent, informal communication -  Shared offices -  Scenario planning workshops &

other stakeholder activities

Sherren et al., Landscape Ecology; Fischer et al. Basic and Applied Ecology

The place: Transylvania   Four ethnic groups:

Saxons, now Romanians, Hungarians, Roma

  Post World War II: Communism and collectivization of land   Collapse of Communism (1989)   Restitution of small parcels of land

  Accession to the EU in 2007   Currently, a system in transition

Transylvania’s farmland

10

Transylvania’s biodiversity

11

The cases: 30 selected villages

Our work in Transylvania, Romania Overall goal:

to understand social-ecological changes in the region, and help identify avenues for sustainable development

Focus on:

Theme Methods Biodiversity and ecosystem services Field surveys, mapping of ES

bundles Preferences and attitudes of local people

Photo-based Q method, interviews on human-carnivore conflicts

Governance, barriers to adaptation and transformation

Policy analysis, stakeholder interviews

Equity and justice (ecosystem services)

Group interviews

Integration (b/w disciplines and with stakeholders)

Scenario planning, mapping, communication activities

Largely peaceful coexistence over centuries stems from: (1) large, connected forest patches, (2) traditional shepherding, and (3) high tolerance towards occasional conflicts

Dorresteijn et al., Landscape Ecology, Ambio

Coexistence of people and bears

Trophic interactions in the forest

Humans have an overwhelming

effects on structuring the ecosystem

But carnivores – bear and wolf – are also important

Dorresteijn et al., Proc. Roy. Soc.

Goal and overview of activities Overall goal:

to understand social-ecological changes in the region, and identify avenues for sustainable development

Focus on:

Land use and plant diversity

Loos et al., Agr. Ecosys. Env.

  Hay meadows   But also semi-natural

strips in arable land

Loos et al., PLoS One, Landscape Ecology

Butterflies   Rich butterfly diversity:

112 species   Different movement

patterns in different kinds of landscapes   Further intensification

will disrupt the movements of already threatened species

Bird diversity

Landscapes with woody vegetation and open areas are needed 20

small intermediate landscape

Dorresteijn et al., in review

The Corncrake required: •  High land cover

diversity •  Remote, wet, and flat

areas

Current situation

11% Decrease land cover diversity


33% Decrease in habitat


Birds: e.g. the Corncrake

21 Dorresteijn et al., Landscape Ecology



areas

Current situation







What about the social side?

  Biodiversity is very rich   And it is associated with traditional land uses

… but …   How do people benefit from nature?   What do people want from the landscape?   How is landscape change being governed?   How will it play out in different parts of the study area?

Healthy soils Clean water

Firewood

Most highly valued:

Hartel et al., Ecology & Society

People’s appreciation of ecosystem services

Goal and overview of activities Overall goal:

to understand social-ecological changes in the region, and identify avenues for sustainable development

Focus on:

Milcu et al., Regional Environmental Change

Winners: Large farmers, officials, wealthy people Losers: smallholder farmers, poor people

Forests, pastures & arable land =>

Milcu et al., Land Use Policy

Contested landscape preferences

Different groups of people want different things from the landscape: tradition, modernisation, tourism, …

Milcu et al., Land Use Policy

Contested landscape preferences

Prosperity and wealth Balance and tradition

Governance   Low levels of human, social, infrastructure and financial capital pose

barriers to sustainable development   Natural and cultural capital, however, provide a possible foundation

Hence need to ensure they are not also degraded!

Mikulcak et al., Land Use Policy

Governance Mismatch between rural realities and EU policies Existing subsidies are difficult to access   Can undermine traditional governance and value systems (e.g.

common pastures)

Mikulcak et al., Environmental Conservation

Regional dynamics

Local condi0ons

Social-‐ecological iner0a

Regional dynamics

Local condi0ons

Scenario 3

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 4

Scenario 3

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 4


Integra)

on

Inpu

t

2 1

3

4

5

Hanspach et al., Ecology & Society

Spatially explicit quantification of local conditions 1. Natural capital 2. Socio-demographic factors 3. Others: Village isolation, village size, terrain ruggedness

1. and 2. assessed for subset of 30 villages, then generalized 3. for all villages in study area

Local conditions: summary

Regional dynamics

Local condi0ons


Regional dynamics

Local condi0ons

Scenario 3

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 4

Scenario 3

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 4


Integra)

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Inpu

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Workshops with 17 organizations and key individuals (nature conservation, forestry, agriculture, tourism, social organisations, churches...) What are the main changes in the past, present and the future? What are the drivers? Development of a consensus systems diagram for the study area

Participatory assessment of regional dynamics

Influenced by EU policy, global markets, national institutions and local leaders

Profitability ofsmall scale

farming

Amount ofpoverty

Amount ofconflicts

Social capital

Quality ofeducation

Number ofpeople leaving

the village

Level ofcorruption

Tourismdevelopment

+

-+

-

-

-

- -

Maintainance oftraditions

+

Emigration ofSaxons

-

Amount of landsold to foreignland owners

Amount of intensively farmed land( conventional or organic)

-

-

+Amount ofabandoned

land

- +

Seeking short-termprofiteering

Amount of forestexploitation

+

Modern lifestyle

-

-

Aggregatelocal

economy

+

-

Maintainance anddevelopment ofinfrastructure

+

+

-

-

+

+

Farmland biodiversity( cultural, regulating and

supporting ecosystemservices)- -

Forest biodiversty( cultural, regulating and

supporting ecosystemservices)

-

R

R

Note: stakeholders reported that the variables in white boxes systematically differed between villages

Regional dynamics

Local condi0ons


Regional dynamics

Local condi0ons

Scenario 3

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 4

Scenario 3

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 4


Integra)

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Inpu

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An example of “system inertia”: local economy

•  based on subjective ranking of local experts •  includes only rankings that were consistent

among multiple stakeholders

Other inertia maps

Regional dynamics

Local condi0ons


Regional dynamics

Local condi0ons

Scenario 3

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 4

Scenario 3

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 4


Integra)

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Inpu

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Scenario planning   In our workshops, we also asked about drivers of change and

uncertainties in those drivers

Pro-

envir

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l nat

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supr

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icy em

phas

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Pro-

econ

omy n

atio

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nd su

pran

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olicy

emph

asis

Low ability of locals to capitalize on opportunities

High ability of locals to capitalize on opportunities

Pro-

envir

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l nat

iona

l and

supr

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icy em

phas

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Pro-

econ

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atio

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nd su

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olicy

emph

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Pro-

envir

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l nat

iona

l and

supr

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icy em

phas

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Pro-

econ

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olicy

emph

asis



Balance brings beauty

Missed opportunity

Our land – their wealth

Prosperity through growth

Pro-

envir

onm

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l nat

iona

l and

supr

anat

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l pol

icy em

phas

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Pro-

econ

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nd su

pran

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emph

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Organic farming and ecotourism Diverse sources of income

High social capital Maintainance of traditions

Missed opportunity Few organic farms by foreigners

Abandonment in many areas Locals poor or leave the area

Low social capital

Our land – their wealth

Land grabbing by foreigners Intensification and exploitation

Locals leave or are poor Low social capital and many conflicts


“Western European” development Conventional intensification

Economic and social improvements Deterioration of natural capital

Scenario planning   Each scenario has been turned into a storyline   Artwork is used to illustrate each scenario

  For local communication, we also

  disseminated scenarios as a booklet in Romanian and Hungarian   distributed postcards showing paintings of the scenarios   complemented the narrative with fictional personalised accounts of each alternative future

Southern Transylvania 2012

Southern Transylvania 2042: “Our land, their wealth”

Southern Transylvania 2042: “Balance brings Beauty”

Southern Transylvania 2042: “Missed Opportunity”

Southern Transylvania 2042: “Prosperity through Growth”

Regional dynamics

Local condi0ons


Regional dynamics

Local condi0ons

Scenario 3

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 4

Scenario 3

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 4


Integra)

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Amplification of inertia under different scenarios

Intensification Abandonment Forest exploitation

Tourism Local economy

Social capital

Emigration Role of foreigners


Our land, their wealth


Missed opportunity




Social capital


Prosperity through growth +

Our land, their wealth --

Balance brings beauty ++

Missed opportunity -




Social capital


Prosperity through growth +++ -- ++ + +++ + +

Our land, their wealth +++ + +++ -- - +++ +++

Balance brings beauty ++ - - ++ + +++ --

Missed opportunity + ++ + - - +++ +

Development risks and opportunities

Intensi-fication

Abandon-ment

Forest exploi-tation

Tourism Local eco-

nomy

Social capital

Emigra-tion

Role of foreig-ners


Our land, their wealth


Missed opportunity

Integration & outreach

An outreach tour through the villages 15 posters exhibited at ~ 10 venues for several weeks each Open-access books in local languages Thousands of postcards depicting four scenarios Websites, blog posts, scientific articles

Working hypotheses for traditional rural landscapes undergoing change

  Natural capital provides a solid foundation for development, while other capital stocks may be lacking   Market-oriented incentives may erode a traditional stewardship ethic   Good governance is critical (accountability, trust) for sustainability   Equity issues are likely to emerge as social structures change   In the absence of a “benevolent dictator”, change must happen

through empowering communities (bottom-up)

Source: igbp.net

The sustainability gap is growing, not closing

13.04.2011 67 Source: Fischer et al. (2007). Mind the sustainability gap. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 22, 612-624.

Leverage points for sustainability

See Meadows (1999), Abson et al. (in press)

Abson et al., 2014, Ecological Economics

Can ecosystem services help to address deep leverage points? In principle yes, but not as applied at the moment…

Concluding remarks   Landscape sustainability science can bring together social and

ecological understandings at a meaningful scale   Key challenge is to alternate between practical vs. foundational

  Practical is necessary, but can amount to “re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic”  Research also needs to address the foundational problems of un-sustainability (values, paradigms, social & economic systems)

Questions & thank you   Thanks to my PhD students, postdocs, and many other collaborators   Thanks to the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation for funding

  Thank you for the invitation and for your attention!

To find out more Blog: ideas4sustainability.wordpress.com Twitter: @ideas4sust All project outputs and papers: peisajesustenabile.wordpress.com Email: [email protected]

Abson et al., 2014, Ecological Economics

Joern fischer beijing3

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