Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) AUBER 2011 Fall Conference Indianapolis, Indiana October 9,...
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Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) AUBER 2011 Fall Conference Indianapolis, Indiana October 9, 2011
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Transcript of Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) AUBER 2011 Fall Conference Indianapolis, Indiana October 9,...
Job Openings and Labor
Turnover(JOLTS)
AUBER 2011 Fall ConferenceIndianapolis, Indiana
October 9, 2011
Labor Market Data
Employment Current Employment Statistics (CES)
Unemployment Current Population Survey (CPS)
Labor dynamics—worker flows Job Openings and Labor Turnover
(JOLTS)
JOLTS Data Elements
Employment (pay period of the
12th) Job openings (last day of the
month) Hires (full month) Total Separations (full month)
Quits Layoffs and Discharges Other Separations
JOLTS Survey Scope
16,000 establishments sampled from:
Nonagricultural industries All 50 states and the District
of Columbia Private sector and
government All size classes
Uses ofDemand and Churn
Data Identify types of unemployment
Structural: mismatch of workers/jobs Frictional: movement of workers Cyclical: business cycle
Indicate health of the labor market Job openings high or low? Quits high or low? Layoffs high or low?
May have leading indicator properties
Dec-0
0
Apr-0
1
Aug-0
1
Dec-0
1
Apr-0
2
Aug-0
2
Dec-0
2
Apr-0
3
Aug-0
3
Dec-0
3
Apr-0
4
Aug-0
4
Dec-0
4
Apr-0
5
Aug-0
5
Dec-0
5
Apr-0
6
Aug-0
6
Dec-0
6
Apr-0
7
Aug-0
7
Dec-0
7
Apr-0
8
Aug-0
8
Dec-0
8
Apr-0
9
Aug-0
9
Dec-0
9
Apr-1
0
Aug-1
0
Dec-1
0
Apr-1
10.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
The unemployment rate and job openings rateSeasonally adjusted
Unemployment rate Job openings rate
Perc
ent
Unemployment rate
Job openings rate
The Beveridge Curve
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
126,000
128,000
130,000
132,000
134,000
136,000
138,000
140,000
Job openings
Job O
penin
gs E
mplo
ym
ent
Employment
Job Openings
Job openings and employmentSeasonally adjusted, in thousands
Dec-0
0
Aug-0
1
Apr-0
2
Dec-0
2
Aug-0
3
Apr-0
4
Dec-0
4
Aug-0
5
Apr-0
6
Dec-0
6
Aug-0
7
Apr-0
8
Dec-0
8
Aug-0
9
Apr-1
0
Dec-1
03,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
128,000
130,000
132,000
134,000
136,000
138,000
140,000
Hires, total separations, and employment Seasonally adjusted, in thousands
Hires Total separations
Hir
es a
nd S
epara
tions
Em
plo
ym
en
t
Total Separa-tions
Hires
Employment
Dec-0
0
Aug-0
1
Apr-0
2
Dec-0
2
Aug-0
3
Apr-0
4
Dec-0
4
Aug-0
5
Apr-0
6
Dec-0
6
Aug-0
7
Apr-0
8
Dec-0
8
Aug-0
9
Apr-1
0
Dec-1
00.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Number of unemployed persons per job openingSeasonally adjusted
Dec-00
Jun-01
Dec-01
Jun-02
Dec-02
Jun-03
Dec-03
Jun-04
Dec-04
Jun-05
Dec-05
Jun-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
Construction hires and separations ratesSeasonally Adjusted
Hires Separations
percent
Dec-00
Jun-01
Dec-01
Jun-02
Dec-02
Jun-03
Dec-03
Jun-04
Dec-04
Jun-05
Dec-05
Jun-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
Manufacturing hires and separations ratesSeasonally Adjusted
Hires Separations
percent
Importance of JOLTS Three Economists won the 2010
Noble Prize in Economics “for their analysis of markets with search frictions” Peter Diamond, MIT Dale Mortensen, Northwestern
University Christopher Pissarides, London School of
Economics Used JOLTS data in their Nobel Prize
Speeches Search and matching labor market
models
13
JOLTS Symposium
December 10, 2010 at BLS Purpose: Bring together leading
academic and policy users of JOLTS data
Five research papers presented Roundtable discussion
How can we improve JOLTS? Conference Report: JOLTS
Symposium February 2011 Monthly Labor Review
14
JOLTS Symposium Papers
“The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring” Steven J. Davis, University of Chicago R. Jason Faberman, Federal Reserve
Bank of Chicago John C. Halterwanger, University of
Maryland
15
JOLTS Symposium Papers
“What Drives Movements in the Unemployment Rate? A Decomposition of the Beveridge Curve” Regis Barnichon, Federal Reserve Board
of Governors Andrew Figura, Federal Reserve Board of
Governors
16
JOLTS Symposium Papers
“Which Industries are Shifting the Beveridge Curve” Regis Barnichon, Federal Reserve Board
of Governors Michael Elsby, University of Michigan Bart Hobijn, Federal Reserve Bank of
San Francisco Aysegul Sahin, Federal Reserve Bank of
New York
17
JOLTS Symposium Papers
“Evaluating and Comparing Leading Indicators for Employment” Gad Levanon, The Conference Board
18
JOLTS Symposium Papers
“JOLTS as a Timely Source of Data by Establishment Size” Alan Krueger, Princeton University Sarah Charnes, US Department of
Treasury Monthly Labor Review, May 2011,
Vol. 134, No. 5
19
JOLTS Symposium Roundtable
Improvements within the existing program JOLTS by size class
Improvements with more sample More industry detail More geographic detail
20
JOLTS Symposium Roundtable
Improvements Requiring More Questions on the Form
Job Openings Skill level (Occupation, Education) Recruiting Intensity Duration of Job Openings
21
JOLTS Symposium Roundtable
Hires Occupation Demographics Wages Type of position (permanent,
temporary, seasonal) From Unemployment or another job Replacement hire or growth hire Formal or informal posting
22
JOLTS Symposium Roundtable
Separations Tenure Occupation Demographics
23
Demand for Size Class Data
Size class data allows analysis of employment patterns over time and through the business cycle for firms of different sizes.
Many policy makers and economists believe small firms are the key to job creation.
With lending tight after the recession, small firms struggle to afford hiring.
Demand for Size Class Data
“Sizing up Job Creation”, Phil Davies, Banking and Policy Issues Magazine, September 2010, The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/pub_display.cfm?id=4538
Firm vs. Establishment
From the Business Employment Dynamics question and answer page:What is the difference between establishment data and firm data? An establishment is defined as an economic unit that produces goods or services, usually at a single physical location, and engaged in one or predominantly one activity. A firm is a legal business, either corporate or otherwise, and may consist of one establishment, a few establishments, or even a very large number of establishments.
First official request for JOLTS size class estimates Alan Krueger, April 2010 while
Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Chief Economist at Dept of Labor, 1994-
95 Professor at Princeton Nominated in August 2011 by President
Obama to be chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers
Used the data in his presentation of the Treasury statement about job growth to the Joint Economic Committee on May 5, 2010
JOLTS Establishment-Based Estimates
For Total Private only Rates and Levels NSA and SA, but only SA
released to the public Available upon request by
emailing [email protected] File for public release updated
quarterly
Users of JOLTS establishment-based size
class estimates
U.S. Department of the Treasury U.S. senators: Oregon,
Maryland The Conference Board U.S. Congress Joint Economic
Committee Federal Reserve Banks: NY,
Boston The Wall Street Journal Moody’s
Users of JOLTS establishment-based size
class estimates (Con’t)
Ray Stone of Stone & McCarthy Research Associates
Manpower Universities: Yale, Princeton,
Harvard, Northwestern, U. of Virginia, U. of Maryland
The Brookings Institute Organisation for Economic Co-
operation and Development (OECD)
Job Openings
Dec-00 Nov-01 Oct-02 Sep-03 Aug-04 Jul-05 Jun-06 May-07 Apr-08 Mar-09 Feb-10 Jan-110.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Seasonally Adjusted Total Private Job OpeningsAll Size Classes
Size 1-9Size 10-49Size 50-249Size 250-999Size 1000-4999Size 5000+
JOLTS J
ob O
penin
gs R
ate
Job Openings Analysis
Job openings began falling prior to the beginning of the recession in Dec 2007
All size classes reached low points during 2009
5,000 employees: Rate higher than at the start of recession
250-999 employees: Rate very close to pre-recession levels
10-49 employees: Recovered the least 32
Hires
Dec-00Oct-01Aug-02Jun-03 Apr-04Feb-05Dec-05Oct-06Aug-07Jun-08 Apr-09Feb-10Dec-100.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Seasonally Adjusted Total Private HiresAll Size Classes
Size 1-9Size 10-49Size 50-249Size 250-999Size 1000-4999Size 5000+
JOLTS H
ires R
ate
Hires Analysis
Hires began falling prior to the beginning of the recession in December 2007
Size classes reached low points in 2009 and 2010
Strongest recovery: 250-999 employees
Weakest recovery: 50-249 employees
34
Quits
Dec-00Nov-01 Oct-02 Sep-03 Aug-04 Jul-05 Jun-06 May-07 Apr-08 Mar-09 Feb-10 Jan-110.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Seasonally Adjusted Total Private QuitsAll Size Classes
Size 1-9Size 10-49Size 50-249Size 250-999Size 1000-4999Size 5000+
JOLTS Q
uit
s R
ate
Quits Analysis
Quits began falling prior to the beginning of the recession in December 2007
Size classes reached low points in 2010 or early 2011
Strongest recovery: 1,000-4,999 employees
Weakest recovery: 5,000+ employees
36
Layoffs and Discharges
Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-100.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Seasonally Adjusted Total Private Layoffs and Discharges
All Size Classes
Size 1-9Size 10-49Size 50-249Size 250-999Size 1000-4999Size 5000+
JOLTS L
ayoff
s a
nd D
ischarg
es R
ate
Layoffs & Discharges Analysis
Layoffs & discharges began to rise after the beginning of the recession in December 2007
Size classes reached high points in 2008 or in 2009
Layoffs and discharges are at or below pre-recession levels for all but the smallest size class (1-9 employees)
38
Other Separations
Dec-00 Nov-01 Oct-02 Sep-03 Aug-04 Jul-05 Jun-06 May-07 Apr-08 Mar-09 Feb-10 Jan-110
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Seasonally Adjusted Total Private Other SeparationsAll Size Classes
Size 1-9Size 10-49Size 50-249Size 250-999Size 1000-4999Size 5000+
JOLTS O
ther
Separa
tions (
in t
housands)
Other Separations Analysis
Other Separations is a very small number with considerable variance, making analysis difficult.
The two largest size classes (1,000-4,999 and 5,000+) have a slight downward trend beginning before the start of the 2007 recession.
40
Firm size research
Demand continues to be for firm-based size class estimates.
BLS is currently researching firm-based estimates.
