Jennifer Q. Belge Eric G. Hoffman Plymouth State University 11/06/08 Northeast Regional Operational...
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![Page 1: Jennifer Q. Belge Eric G. Hoffman Plymouth State University 11/06/08 Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Preferred Regions of Convective Development.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081603/56649efc5503460f94c10484/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Jennifer Q. BelgeEric G. Hoffman
Plymouth State University
11/06/08Northeast Regional
Operational Workshop
Preferred Regions of Convective Development over
Northern New England as a Function of Flow Regime: Southwesterly Flow Case
Studies
http://www.eoearth.org/upload/thumb/6/61/Mature_thunderstorm_cloud.jpg/250px-Mature_thunderstorm_cloud.jpg
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Previous Work- Evan Lowery (2008) 5 year climatology of northern New
England thunderstormsKGYX radar domainApril – September2003-2007SCIT
Spatial distribution of cells as a function of large-scale flow at 700 hPa
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Results- Lowery (2008)
SW FLOW5 clusters
○ Central Oxford, Franklin and Somerset counties in ME
○ Just south of Belknap, Merrimack border in NH
○ Southern Oxford county in ME
○ Northern Grafton county in NH
○ Southern Somerset county in ME
Grafton
Oxford
FranklinSomerset
Coos
CarrollBelknap
Merrimack
York
Strafford
Rockingham
Hillsborough
Sullivan
Cheshire
Piscataquis
Aroostook
Cumberland
Androscoggin
Kennebec
Penobscot
WaldoKnox
LincolnSagadahoc
NW FLOW 3 clusters
Border of Strafford (NH) and York (ME) counties
Tri-county border of Oxford (ME), Carroll (NH) and York(ME)
Border of Grafton (NH) and Coos (NH) county
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Motivation
Lowery’s study did not address:Why are there preferred regions of
development with respect to flow regime?
Differences between flow regimes? Forecasting potential
KGYX
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Scientific Questions
Why do thunderstorm cells initiate where they do as a function of large-scale flow?SW and NW @ 700 hPa only
Are there certain meteorological patterns present in the mesoscale environment that is conducive to convection in these regions found by Lowery (2008)?
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Data and Methodology
Case StudiesRadar reflectivity examined for each
case from May-September 2007 only Case study selection
1.Cells were to initiate in the significant areas identified by Lowery (2008)
2.Cells were to not be associated with a frontal zone○ Eliminate influence of frontal boundary
in mesoscale analysis
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Results
Radar Sounding 12 UTC
KGYX Surface analysis RUC
Synoptic overview
12 UTC LAPS
KGYXMesoscale
analysis17 UTC
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July 13, 2007
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Synoptic Analysis12 UTC
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Surface Analysis 12 UTC
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500 hPa Height 12 UTC
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250 hPa Height and Wind 12 UTC
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Sounding 12 UTC
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Mesoscale Analysis17 UTC
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Surface Analysis 18 UTC
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Surface Dew Point 17 UTC
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Surface CAPE 17 UTC
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Surface Flow Vectors and Topo 17 UTC
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Surface Flow Vectors and Topo 17 UTC
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Surface Convergence 17 UTC
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Mean Sea Level Pressure 17 UTC
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Conclusions
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Preliminary Results July 13, 2007 SW
Flow CaseMoisture &
instability sufficient over entire area○ Genesis region
was not uniqueSurface
convergence and corresponding surface trough could provide the necessary lift
Results from the August 2, 2007 case show the same results and conclusions
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WORKS CITED
Lowery, E.M, 2008: Using the WSR-88D Storm Structure Product to Develop a Climatology of Northern New England Thunderstorms as a Function of Large-Scale Flow, Plymouth State University, Master of Science Thesis
WORKS CITED
Lowery, E.M, 2008: Using the WSR-88D Storm Structure Product to Develop a Climatology of Northern New England Thunderstorms as a Function of Large-Scale Flow, Plymouth State University, Master of Science Thesis
Questions?
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