Jeff Jowett, IHS Presentation
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Transcript of Jeff Jowett, IHS Presentation
© 2015 IHS
ihs.com
IHS AUTOMOTIVE
North American Powertrain Outlook
UMTRI “Focus on the Future” Automotive Research Conferences
Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Century: Revolution and Evolution
Wednesday, July 22, 2015
Jeff Jowett
Manager – Americas Powertrain Forecasting
© 2015 IHS
2
Presentation Outline
• Global Context
• N. American Vehicle Production Outlook
• Powertrain Dynamics
• OEM Profiles
• Summary
• Introduction to IHS
• U.S. Regulatory Overview
• Technology Trends
• OEM Profiles
• Summary
© 2015 IHS
IHS – What We Do
3
ANALYTICS
EXPERTISE
INFORMATION We offer information, analytics and
expertise to organizations around
the world.
They depend on our insights to help
them make decisions about everything
from day-to-day operations to long-
term investments.
ANALYTICS
EXPERTISE
INFORMATION
© 2015 IHS
IHS Industries
4
AEROSPACE & DEFENSE
100+ years’ experience
delivering unrivaled news,
insight and intelligence on
defense and security
equipment, markets,
industries and risk
CHEMICAL
Over 200 leading industry
authorities creating integrated
views and analysis across
more than 300 chemical
markets and 2,000 processes
for 95 industries
FINANCE
Research on 200+
countries and territories
with harmonized indicators
from IHS analysts and
economists
TECHNOLOGY
World’s largest
electronics component
database with more than
350 million parts
AUTOMOTIVE
The world’s largest team
of automotive analysts with
hundreds of experts located
in 15 key markets around
the world covering the entire
automotive value chain
ENERGY
Extensive Oil & Gas well
information on 5.5+ million
wells worldwide dating
back as far as 1860
MARITIME
World’s largest maritime
database with an information
gathering heritage of 250+
years with comprehensive
information on all vessels 100
GT and over
© 2015 IHS
5
Presentation Outline
• Global Context
• N. American Vehicle Production Outlook
• Powertrain Dynamics
• OEM Profiles
• Summary
• Introduction to IHS
• U.S. Regulatory Overview
• Technology Trends
• OEM Profiles
• Summary
© 2015 IHS
U.S. CAFE and CO2 Regulations
6
163 g/mile of CO2 in 2025
= 54.5 mpg if all CO2 emissions
reductions are achieved with
fuel economy technology
49.6 mpg in 2025 (unadjusted)
40-42 mpg (real world)
According to Michael Sivak at UMTRI, the average fuel economy of all
vehicles sold in calendar 2014 was 25.3 mpg (real world)
© 2015 IHS
U.S. CAFE Fuel Economy Status and Targets – Car Fleet
7
Source: NHTSA, December 2014 Summary of Fuel Economy Performance
© 2015 IHS
U.S. CAFE Fuel Economy Status and Targets – Truck Fleet
8
Source: NHTSA, December 2014 Summary of Fuel Economy Performance
© 2015 IHS
9
Presentation Outline
• Global Context
• N. American Vehicle Production Outlook
• Powertrain Dynamics
• OEM Profiles
• Summary
• Introduction to IHS
• U.S. Regulatory Overview
• Technology Trends
• OEM Profiles
• Summary
© 2015 IHS
North America Engine Technology Trends
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
VVT
Gas DI
Stop/Start
Gas Boosted
Cyl Deac
Gas-E85
Hybrid-Full
Diesel
Hybrid-Mild
Electric
Fuel Cell
Millio
ns
Source: IHS Automotive May‘15, Engine installation into Light Vehicles manufactured in North America
© 2015 IHS
Higher Ratio Planetary and CVTs Grab the Lions Share of
NAFTA Market…
0
5
10
15
20
25
'14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27
Mill
ion
s
Man
EVT
DCT
CVT
A8+
A6/7
≤A5
AMT
18%
61%
Design Type By Year
Source: IHS Automotive May‘15, Transmission installation into Light Vehicles manufactured in North America
© 2015 IHS 12
Global Technology Islands in 2020
Legislation, drive cycle, and consumer choice dictate technology
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Europe
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Japan/Korea
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
South America
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
South Asia
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Greater China
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
MiddleEast/Africa
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
North America
Die
sel
GD
I
Ad
v T
ran
s
Hyb
rid
E
lec
tric
G
as
Bo
os
ted
IC
E+
S/S
AW
D /
4W
D
Source: IHS Automotive
© 2015 IHS
14
Presentation Outline
• Global Context
• N. American Vehicle Production Outlook
• Powertrain Dynamics
• OEM Profiles
• Summary
• Introduction to IHS
• U.S. Regulatory Overview
• Technology Trends
• OEM Profiles
• Summary
© 2015 IHS
FCA
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.61.8
2
Millio
ns
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
8 cyl
4 cyl
6 cyl
© 2015 IHS
Ford
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Millio
ns
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
8 cyl
4 cyl
3 cyl
6 cyl
© 2015 IHS
General Motors
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Millio
ns
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
8 cyl
4 cyl
3 cyl
6 cyl
© 2015 IHS
Honda
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.6
Millio
ns
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
6 cyl
4 cyl
© 2015 IHS
Hyundai
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
Mil
lio
ns
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
8 cyl
4 cyl
6 cyl
© 2015 IHS
Nissan
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Millio
ns
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
8 cyl
4 cyl
3 cyl
6 cyl
© 2015 IHS
Toyota
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.61.8
2
Millio
ns
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
8 cyl
4 cyl
3 cyl
6 cyl
© 2015 IHS
6 cyl
4 cyl
Volkswagen
0100200300400500600700800
Th
ou
san
ds
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
8 cyl
© 2015 IHS
23
Presentation Outline
• Global Context
• N. American Vehicle Production Outlook
• Powertrain Dynamics
• OEM Profiles
• Summary
• Introduction to IHS
• U.S. Regulatory Overview
• Technology Trends
• OEM Profiles
• Summary
© 2015 IHS
Final Thoughts
• Legislation is the most significant driver of industry change; this is creating the need for
an abundance of new powertrain technologies to be created, refined, and manufactured
• CAFE and CO2 regulations are extremely challenging for the U.S. market and some
OEM’s are already better positioned to meet those regulations than others
• There isn’t one technology that will ultimately allow manufactures to meet the
regulations. Whether by segment, or by OEM, there will be many different technology
combinations
• Global powertrain platforms/architectures will continue to proliferate through the forecast
horizon – driven by competition, speed to market, economies of scale, and fulfilling
requirements in both developed and developing markets
24
IHS Customer Care:
• Americas: +1 800 IHS CARE (+1 800 447 2273); [email protected]
• Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) 1344 328 300; [email protected]
• Asia and the Pacific Rim: +604 291 3600; [email protected]
© 2014 IHS. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and IHS.
Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the
opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. For more
information, please contact IHS at Customer Care (see phone numbers and email addresses above). All products, company names or other marks appearing in this publication are the trademarks and property of IHS or their respective owners.
Jeff Jowett
Manager – Americas Powertrain Forecasting
+1 248-465-2829
Thank you.