Jason Rudokas EAG Call April 17, 2009
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Transcript of Jason Rudokas EAG Call April 17, 2009
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Sustainable Energy and Air Sustainable Energy and Air Quality Planning for the Quality Planning for the
Northeast USNortheast US Application of a Multi-Pollutant Application of a Multi-Pollutant
Policy Analysis Framework to New Policy Analysis Framework to New York StateYork State
Jason RudokasJason Rudokas
EAG CallEAG Call
April 17, 2009April 17, 2009
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Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastNortheast
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Motivation for developing a Motivation for developing a multi-pollutant analytical multi-pollutant analytical
frameworkframework
(or, what are the challenges to and opportunities for
sustainable air quality management?)
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Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastNortheast
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Climate Change in the Climate Change in the NortheastNortheast
Source: UCS NECIA
Alternative energypathways can makea difference in our future climate change“commitment”
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Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastNortheast
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Climate Change in the Climate Change in the NortheastNortheast
Source: UCS NECIA
>90°F >100°F
Difference betweenattainment and
nonattainment??
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Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastNortheast
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Southeast
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
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0 20 40 60 80 100 120
M8hO3 (ppb)
CD
F
2001
2050
2050_np
Small increase in O3 due to climate
Substantial decrease in O3 due to planned emission controls
Northeast
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
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1
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
M8hO3 (ppb)
CD
F
2001
2050
2050_np
Climate and Air Quality LinksClimate and Air Quality Links(Link 1 - The Impact)(Link 1 - The Impact)
Georgia Tech/NESCAUM/MIT STAR Grant, 2006
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Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastNortheast
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Climate and Air Quality LinksClimate and Air Quality Links(Link 2 - The Opportunity)(Link 2 - The Opportunity)
A Low Carbon Future Could Mean…• Low NOx future
• Low SO2 future
• Low Hg and other toxic metals future
• Low Diesel/Black Carbon future…A more sustainable Future
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Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastNortheast
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Air Quality Management Air Quality Management IssuesIssues
• Acid Deposition• Mercury Deposition• Fine Particles (Health & Visibility)• Ozone• Air Toxics• Climate
Requires 10 or more SIP-type efforts!
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Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastNortheast
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Multi-Pollutant PlanningMulti-Pollutant Planning
• June 2007: Clean Air Act Advisory Committee recommended that governments adopt a comprehensive statewide air quality planning process and move from a single to a multiple pollutant approach in managing air quality
• Northeast States seek to balance climate change and energy work with criteria pollutants and toxics work; looking for ways to analyze and make integrated policy decisions.
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Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastNortheast
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Multi-pollutant Multi-pollutant Policy Analysis Policy Analysis
FrameworkFrameworkfor the Northeast USfor the Northeast US
Policy Goal
NE-MARKAL
12-State REMI
KeyEconomic Indicators
CMAQemiss
ions
expenditures
Wet/DryDeposition
Ambient Concentrations
BenMAP
Health EffectsIncidence and Cost/Benefit
MeteorologyHealth/Valuation
Function
UNH RCMS
ClimateImpacts Models
Costs,Benefits, Adaptations
due to Climate
Global ClimateModel
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Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastNortheast
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NE-MARKAL: Links Energy and NE-MARKAL: Links Energy and Air QualityAir Quality
Air Pollution
Contribution to anthropogenicemissions:
NOx ~ 95%SOx ~ 89%CO ~ 95%Hg ~ 87%CO2 ~94%
Air Quality Concerns:OzonePM2.5Acid depositionToxics
Today’s Energy System
Uranium
Natural Gas
Oil
Oil
Refining
Coal
Renewables
Electricity Generation
Industry
Industry
Commercial
Residential
Automobiles
Source: EPA ORD
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Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastNortheast
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NE-MARKAL: Projects future NE-MARKAL: Projects future Energy AND Air QualityEnergy AND Air Quality
Future Evolution of Today’s Energy System
Source: EPA ORD
Uranium
Fossil Fuels
OilRefining & Processing
H2 Generation
Clean Energy
Biomass
Combustion
Nuclear Power
Gasification
RenewableResources
Carbon Sequestration
Industry
Industry
Commercial
Residential
Automobiles
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Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastNortheast
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NYDEC/NYSERDA Project NYDEC/NYSERDA Project OverviewOverview
(What are the project objectives, scope, tasks, and deliverables?)
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Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastNortheast
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Project Goals:Project Goals:
• To identify a suite of strategies that will simultaneously be able to make significant progress toward ozone, PM, mercury, acid deposition, and climate goals
• To use NESCAUM’s Multi-pollutant Policy Analysis Framework (MPAF) to develop a solid basis for these strategies from the perspectives of the economy, technological evolution, the environment, and other public health endpoints