Jari Kaivo-oja, Adjunct Professor, Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku

Adviser, Crisis Management Initiative, President Ahtisaari´s Office

KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD & EUROPEAN ARENA &

NEW CHALLENGES FOR FUTURES STUDIES

KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD: SOCIAL

• Global migration increases

• Increasing longevity (more active 60 year old)

• The old poor class larger/regional underclass

• Growing distrust on institutions and leaders

• Changing roles of sex and generations

• World becomes urban

• Continued bubbles and crashes

• Global educational powerhouses: China & India

KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD: TECHNICAL

• Genetics, robotics, informatics and nanotechnology (WRIN waves)

• The era of big creativity and innovation challenges (Rule of 10 000 hours, bohemian creative class, Quartet Helix, frugal innovation, systemic innovations, etc.)

• Technological capability increases exponentially: technological singularity near

• The Cloud becomes ubiquitous: Web 3.0 and Web 4.0

• New age of transhumanity: Human beings, robots and cyber humans

• Reality and universe secondary, multiverse will be the key field of hypercompetition

KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD: ENVIRONMENT

• The rules of time, space & materia are changing: time machines, space machines and materia machines create ubiquitous r/evolution

• Environmental catastrophes occur

• ”Some like it hot”: the climate change problem and the end of cheap energy era

• The culture of sustainability begins to emerge

KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD: ECONOMIC

• Globalisation: Networks, crowds, markets

• The emerging BRICSA economies, especially China will dominate many markets

• Digital markets, digital money, virtual words, avatars

• Productivity gains: More automation, highly educated workers

• Mega-companies & micro-entrepreneurs emerge

• Agile and smart business organisations

EUROPE 2030 VISION?

PROJECT EUROPE 2030Challenges and OpportunitiesA report to the European Council by the ReflectionGroup on the Future of the EU 2030Web: http://www.reflectiongroup.eu/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/reflection_en_web.pdf

EUROPE 2030?• Vision element 1: An agent of change in the world, a trend-

setter, and not a passive player or witness.

• Vision element 2: Highly competitive and sustainable social market economy in order to maintain social cohesion and fight against climate change.

• Vision element 3: EU needs to have a common energy policy (Renewables & nuclear energy solution).

• Vision element 4: Europeans have met its demographic challenge.

EUROPE 2030• Vision element 5: The EU has a strong Single Market against

temptations of economic nationalism and complete it to include services, the digital society and other dynamic sectors.

• Vision element 6: Improved European tax coordination.

• Vision element 7: Europe will have very modern labour market and very modern corporate governance practices because of the progress of robotisation and automatisation.

EUROPE 2030• Vision element 8: The stronger European Council and the

stronger Eurogroup with more efficient leadership role, in coordination with the Commission and the European Parliament.

KEY EUROPEAN QUESTIONS ON THE EUROPEAN FORESIGHT AGENDA

• Manage financial crisis and re-direct Europe to new economic growth

• Solve unemployment problems – especially youth unemployment problem

• Keep Europe competive, innovative and open minded (Technology, Talents, Tolerance)

• Keep Europe secure and safe: internal security, external security, social security, energy security etc.)

• Make political leadership transparent and efficient

NEW CHALLENGES FOR FUTURES STUDIES

• Diagnosis-Prognosis-Prescription Methodology (DPP Methodology)

• Adaptive and Agile Foresight processes

• Strategic and participatory foresight more widely used

• Foresight supports strong democracy

• Metaforesight activities

• Foresight and social media ... later European Cloud foresight capacity

ATTENTION !

CONGRATULATIONS FOR EMINENT SCHOLAR, PROFESSOR ERIK TERK AND ESTONIAN ACADEMIC COMMUNITY &

FUTURES RESEARCH FELLOWS!

THANK YOU!

SOME REFERENCES• Gratton, L. (2011). The Shift. The Future of Work Is Already Here. London: Collins.

• Green, E.N. (2010). Anywhere. How Global Connectivity Is Revolutionizing the Way We Do Business? New York: McGraw-Hill.

• Greenfield, A. (2006). Everyware: The Dawning Age of Ubiquitous Computing. Berkeley, CA, New Riders.

• Inkinen, S. & Kaivo-oja, J. (2009). Understanding Innovation Dynamics. Aspects of Creative Processes, Foresight Strategies, Innovation Media and Innovation Ecosystems. Finland Futures Research Centre. Turku School of Economics. eBook 9/2009. Turku.

• Kaivo-oja, J. (2006). Towards Integration of Innovation Systems and Foresight Research in Firms and Corporations. The Classical Takeuchi-Nonaka Model Reconsidered and Reformulated. FFRC-publications 2/2006. Turku, Turku School of Economics.

• Kaivo-oja, J. (2011). Futures of Innovation Systems and Systemic Innovation Systems: Towards Better Innovation Quality with New Innovation Management Tools. e-Book No 3, Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku, University of Turku.

• Kaivo-oja, J. (2012). Weak Signals Analysis, Knowledge Management Theory and Systemic Socio-cultural Transitions. Futures. The Journal of Policy, Planning and Futures Studies. Vol. 44, Issue 3, pp. 206–217.

• López, T.S., Ranasinghe, D.C. Harrison, M. & McFarlane, D. (2012). Adding sense to the Internet of Things: An architecture framework for Smart Object systems. Personal and Ubiquitous Computing. Vol. 16, No 3, 389-395.

• Misuraca, G., Broster, D., Centeno, C., Punie, Y., Lampathaki, F., Charalabidis, Y., Askounis, D., Osimo,, D. Katarzyna, S. (2010). Envisioning Digital Europe 2030: Scenarios for ICT in Future Governance and Policy Modelling. Seville: JRC.

• Teece, D.J. (2006). Reflections on ‘Profiting from innovation`. Research Policy. Vol 35, No. 8, pp. 1131-1146.

• Ulwick, A. (2005). What Customers Want: Using Outcome-Driven Innovation to Create Breakthrough Products and Services. New York, McGrawHill.

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