Japan and the New World Order

8/13/2019 Japan and the New World Order

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Japan and the new world order: from postwar take off to

stagnation (1945-1994)Posted: 13 January, 2014 by AdmininEast Timor,Events,Homelessness,Hunger,Labour Party N,!e"i#o,$n#ategori%ed,$niversities, $&risings,'el(are rig)ts,'omen*s rig)ts + omen*s liberation, 'orld e#onomy

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by Philip Ferguson

!ntrodu"tion

-evieing t)e .e#ond 'orld 'ar, e #ould say it) )indsig)t t)at it as not only a arbeteen t)e /llied and /"is &oers, but also beteen t)e $nited .tates and Euro&e in&arti#ular t)e old #olonial &oers o( ritain and ran#e (or t)e &osition o( orld )egemon,

and beteen t)e $. and Ja&an (or dominan#e in t)e estern Pa#i(i# and /sia n t)e #ourseo( t)e ar ritain as virtually ban5ru&ted, t)roug) its &ur#)ases and loans (rom t)e $nited.tates /t t)e ar6s end, ritain and ran#e )ad little #)oi#e but to o&en u& t)eir #olonies tot)e $nited .tates 'it) mu#) o( Euro&e in ruin and Ja&an #rus)ed, t)e $. reigned su&remeover t)e &ostar orld order and t)e dollar ruled t)e orld e#onomy

T)e 7old 'ar )el&ed give t)e $nited .tates &oliti#al )egemony to mat#) its e#onomi#&oer 8T)e 'est6, )i#) did not really e"ist be(ore t)is, and )ose #om&onents )ad s&ent)undreds o( years (ig)ting ea#) ot)er (or mastery o( Euro&e and t)en t)e orld, be#ame#o)ered be)ind 'as)ington in t)e #ommon &ur&ose o( #ontaining 8t)e East6, ie #ommunism

T)e end o( t)e 7old 'ar, (olloing t)e im&losion o( t)e .oviet blo#, )as un(ro%en t)e

international relations (i"ed in t)e a(termat) o( 'orld 'ar /t t)e same time, many o( t)emain 'estern e#onomies )ave been bogged don in e#onomi# de#ay and re#ession sin#e193;4, it) only s)ort;lived and &artial re#overies /(ter nearly t)ree de#ades o( a orldorder based on t)e 7old 'ar and t)e long e#onomi# e"&ansion and &ros&erity, t)e moretraditional #y#les o( boom and bust seem to )ave rea&&eared it) a vengean#e 00s and early1900s? T)e end o( t)e 7old 'ar and t)e long boom )ave )ad t)eir most signi(i#ant e((e#tson t)e main &ostar &oer, t)e $nited .tates, and on ritain )ose &osition at t)e to& tablein t)e &ostar era as arti(i#ially maintained t)roug) its @s&e#ial relations)i&A it) t)e $./,a relations)i& )i#), in turn, as a re(le#tion o( t)e 7old 'ar

Loo5ed at in terms o( orld systems t)eory, e a&&ear to )ave rea#)ed a #rossroads &oint in)istory T)e old #ertainties, #onditioned by t)e &ostar boom and 7old 'ar, are goneB but
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)at is to re&la#e t)em is not yet #lear T)e 8/meri#an 7entury6 during )i#) t)e $nited.tates )as been un#)allenged )egemon is draing to a #lose it) $. su&rema#y on t)eorld stage no longer to be ta5en (or granted

n t)is essay ill be loo5ing at t)e #)anges ta5ing &la#e in international relations, es&e#iallyin t)e e#onomi# and &oliti#al s&)eres, and t)e ays in )i#) t)ese are im&a#ting u&on Ja&an ill be #onsidering t)e &e#uliarities o( Ja&anese develo&ment in t)e &ost;'orld 'ar ll era interms o( t)e (a#tors enabling ra&id Ja&anese e#onomi# grot) and t)ose in)ibiting Ja&an(rom be#oming a 8normal6 #ountry ill also be loo5ing at t)e limitations to Ja&anesegrot) Lastly, ill be revieing )o Ja&an is trying to #o&e in t)e ne orld situation,

&arti#ularly )o its #ontradi#tory relations)i& it) t)e $. is being &layed out in t)e &resent#onte"t o( orld e#onomi# and &oliti#al un#ertainty and (lu" !et)odologi#ally ill bedraing on orld systems #on#e&ts as essential to )el&ing e"&lain bot) Ja&anese su##ess andt)e e#onomi#, domesti#;&oliti#al and (oreign a((airs &roblems t)at Ja&an no (a#es

'orld systems t)eory in &arti#ular long;#y#le t)eory, asso#iated it) !odels5i, T)om&son,Cil&in, 'allerstein and Dennedy broadly s&ea5ing involves t)e #on#e&t o( a global

e#onomi# and &oliti#al system in )i#) a &arti#ular #ountry be#omes dominant t)roug) its#ontrol o( trade and its armed &oer T)is )egemon t)en restru#tures orld e#onomy and

&oliti#s in its on interests and im&oses order to maintain its dominan#e T)e #y#les lastroug)ly one )undred years, o&ening it) a uarter;#entury o( maFor ars in )i#) a ne#ountry emerges as )egemon n t)e se#ond uarter, t)e ne )egemon manages t)e system, a

&ro#ess )i#) sa&s it o( in#reasing amounts o( resour#es until its over;rea#)es itsel( T)et)ird uarter !odels5i6s delegitimation stage o&ens it) t)e )egemon6s &oer erodedand ne #)allenges being mounted to its &osition n t)e (inal uarter, &oer be#omesdeconcentratedand multi&le #entres, more eual in strengt), begin to #om&ete it) t)e resultt)at at t)e end o( t)e #entury;long &eriod )uge ne ars brea5 out as t)e means by )i#) t)ene"t )egemon establis)es itsel(G1

n !odels5i6s vie t)e $nited .tates is in t)e delegitimationstage Degley summarises ten(eatures #)ara#terising t)is stage e"#essive military s&ending, e"#essive use o( (or#e,entangling allian#es, over#ommitment, &reo##u&ation it) a non;t)reatening rival, negle#t o(internal develo&ment, #a&ital mismanagement, deteriorating trade imbalan#es, de#lining

&rodu#tivity and #om&etitiveness in t)e orld e#onomy, and &rote#tionist trade &oli#ies ands)os )o ea#) o( t)ese #an be seen in relation to t)e $nited .tates over t)e last de#ade

He also identi(ies some o( t)e &roblems it) t)e long;#y#le orld systems model:determinism, teleology, and t)e &remise t)at )istory re&eats itsel( Iet, as )e also notes, t)e

&arallels beteen t)e #orres&onding uarters in ea#) #entury;long #y#le over t)e &ast (ive)undred years remain stri5ing Hoever t)in5 t)ere is anot)er ea5ness in t)is model y

#on#entrating on )at is t)e same it)in t)e #y#les, e miss out on )at is distin#tive aboutt)em and, in &arti#ular, )at is distin#tive about today n a orld o( &arts )i#) are moreinterde&endent t)an ever be(ore, e #ertainly reuire some (orm o( orld analysis, and t)isinevitably involves identi(ying bot) &atterns and dis#ontinuities and di((eren#es beteentoday and t)e &ast

Here e mig)t note anot)er sort o( orld systems t)eory, t)at o( Lenin His analysisgre out o( t)e realisation t)at e#onomi#s and &oliti#s in t)e late 1>00s and early 1900s )adta5en on a ne, distin#t #)ara#ter )i#) )e labelled imperialism T)e #)ara#teristi#s o( t)eim&erialist e&o#) ere analysed by )im as t)e division o( t)e orld into a )and(ul o(advan#ed #a&italist #ountries and a mass o( underdevelo&ed and o&&ressed nations,

generalised stagnation and de#ay o( #a&italism, t)e e"&ort o( #a&ital, mono&olisation o( (irms,#on#entration o( #a&ital


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(inan#e #a&ital?, t)e end o( (ree trade and grot) o( &rote#tionism and trade #on(li#ts and anin#reasing intervention by t)e state in e#onomi# li(e as t)e system lost its on dynamismT)ese tenden#ies ere vieed as leading to ars and revolutionsG2

')ilst t)e remar5able e"&ansion o( &rodu#tivity and ealt) a(ter 194= strongly #ontradi#tedt)e idea o( stagnation and de#ay, t)at situation gre out o( e"#e&tional #ir#umstan#es namely a massive ar during )i#) )uge amounts o( #a&ital values ere destroyed andor5ers living standards and ages ere driven don T)is, along it) t)e emergen#e o( t)e$nited .tates as un#)allenged orld )egemon, not only made &ossible t)e reneal o( t)ee"isting #a&italist orld system but #reated remar5able &ossibilities (or ne rounds o( #a&itala##umulation at levels never 5non be(ore Crot) rates a(ter ''2 ere &)enomenal: by193 out&ut in t)e advan#ed #a&italist #ountries /s )e notes, it sim&ly raises a series o( ot)er uestions t)ese in#lude t)e sour#e o((inan#e (or t)e large in#rease in #a&ital sto#5, )et)er t)e &arti#ularly )ig) rate o(
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te#)nologi#al &rogress is attributable merely to 8#at#)ing u&6 it) t)e 'est, and t)e role t)egovernment &layed in a#)ieving )ig) levels o( grot) T)ese are #ertainly im&ortant, butt)ey do not by t)emselves go to t)e )eart o( t)e issue

or instan#e, given t)at t)e bottom line o( #a&italist investment is not t)e &rodu#tion o( goodsbut t)e ma5ing, and usually ma"imisation, o( &ro(it, e need to as5 )at &arti#ular (eatureso( &ostar Ja&an made investment ort))ile (rom t)e &oint o( vie o( #a&ital ')at eret)e general #onditions li5e in t)e so#iety Ho did t)ese #onditions #ome aboutEssentially, to6s e"&lanation is te#)ni#al rat)er t)an so#ial and t)us it abstra#ts #ertain8in&uts6 (rom t)e a#tual so#iety )i#) bot) made t)em &ossible and #onditioned t)em Hisevaluation o( t)ese 8in&uts6 is debatable too y redu#ing t)e #on#e&t @labourA to )oursor5edMem&loymentMedu#ationMse";age #om&osition, )e se&arates it (rom its role in bot) t)e(ormation o( #a&ital and develo&ment o( te#)nology 7ontrary to to, te#)nology is not agivenB it is itsel( a &rodu#t o( )uman labour .imilarly, #a&ital does not a&&ear out o( t)in airBit #annot e"ist, let alone re&rodu#e, it)out t)e e"isten#e o( labour &oerG9

/##ording to Jo)n Ooer, t)e gra&)i# nature o( Ja&an6s de(eat in 194= )as obs#ured t)e (a#t

t)at t)e ar as @use(ulA in #reating #onditions (or t)e subseuent e#onomi# mira#le G10 Hesees t)e &eriod (rom t)e de&ression until 194= as #onstituting a @se#ond industrial revolutionAin Ja&an, it) &ro(ound #)anges in t)e basi# stru#tures o( #a&ital and labour m&ortant#ontinuities meant @t)e &ostar state rested on organi%ational &illars t)at ere (irmly &lantedin t)e &astAG11 T)e origins o( 5ey state and &rivate enter&rise institutions su#) as t)e!inistry o( nternational Trade and ndustry

&rear and ar &eriod !any maFor #om&anies in#luding 10 o( t)e 11 largest auto (irms #ame out o( t)e ar Nissan, Toyota and su%u, (or instan#e, )ad &ros&ered as t)e main

&rodu#ers o( military tru#5s )en ord and C! ere e"#luded (rom Ja&an in 193

Nomura .e#urities and Hita#)i re#eived t)eir big brea5s during t)e 1930s and early 1940s7ameras, bino#ulars and at#)es ere grounded in artime te#)nologies Ooer also lin5st)e e"isting @big si"A enter&rise grou&s and t)eir related (inan#ial enter&rise grou&s to t)reeold %aibatsu grou&ings T)e ar e"&erien#e o( t)e 1930s and 1940s #entralised and#on#entrated #a&italG12andmade industry (ar more e((i#ient t)roug) #onsolidating andrationalising &rodu#tionG13 eteen 1930;3 t)e inde" (or investment goods rose (rom 100to 24, )ile 193;44 sa )uge grot) in se#tors su#) as manu(a#turing


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'artime destru#tion o( &lant as also not entirely negative: t)e s5ills ere &reserved, and t)e&ossibility as t)ere (or ne, more e((i#ient &lant to be built

T)e &ostar government dire#tly &lanned t)e grot) o( #oal, steel and ot)er 5ey industries,(ro%e many #onsumer &ri#es and ado&ted e"&ansionary (is#al and monetary &oli#ies using t)e-e#onstru#tion an5 establis)ed in January 194 as t)e main ma#)ine (or (is#alstimulation y selling bonds, mainly to t)e an5 o( Ja&an, t)e -e#onstru#tion an5

&rovided (unds to subsidise #oal, ele#tri# &oer, iron ma#)inery and ot)er essentialindustries t also loaned money to &ubli# #or&orations, an arrangement t)e @euivalent togovernment (inan#e by t)e &rinting o( money AG1 T)e government also organisedsubstantial (unds to invest in e#onomi# regulation by (ree%ing assets in ebruary 194 and#onverting t)em into ban5 de&osits o( )i#) only a (ra#tion #ould be it)dran (or livinge"&enses

/ll o( t)ese (a#tors &rovided ideal domesti# #ir#umstan#es (or #a&ital a##umulation a(ter t)ear, but )at made it &ossible to #onvert t)e &ossibility (or grot) into a reality as t)einternational situation rom being Ja&an6s great &roblem &re;194=, it no be#ame Ja&an6s

great advantage 'riting in 19=, (ormer vi#e;minister o( !T and ar#)ite#t o( Ja&an6sindustrial &oli#y /maya Nao)iro, summed u& t)e #)ange: @or Ja&an be(ore t)e ar, t)eorld seemed very small, almost #laustro&)obi# T)e great irony as t)at t)roug) de(eat,Ja&an gained admission to t)e !;Catt system, )i#) alloed it to e"&ort its &rodu#tsevery; )ere in t)e orld /nd it #ould im&ort as mu#) as its money #ould buy Ja&ansa a orld (reer t)an it )ad ever been sin#e t)e !eiFi &eriodAG1>

/(ter t)e ar, t)e $nited .tates e"&e#ted to be su&ervising Ja&an (or 2= years T)is as#)anged by t)e onset o( t)e 7old 'ar, revolution in /sia


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&ut on t)e treaty Ja&an also )ad to re#ognise t)e regime in Taian as t)e legitimategovernment o( 7)ina and generally toe t)e $. line in international relationsG21

E"&anding orld trade, #)ea& and abundant ra materials and ne, e((i#ient 0(i(teen &ro(itable /meri#an #om&anies &rodu#ed most o( t)e orld6s memory #)i&s n 19>t)e $. trade balan#e in )i;te#) goods su#) as #om&uters, s#ienti(i# and #ommuni#ations

eui&ment ent negative (or t)e (irst time and $. #)i& ma5ers lost K>00 million y 19>most o( t)e (i(teen )ad vanis)edB t)e t)ree remaining ere burdened by debt /t t)e end o(
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t)e 19>0s most o( t)ese #)i&s ere being made in Ja&an, and it also dominated &rodu#tion o(t)e materials (rom )i#) t)ey ere made n t)is situation, )ere &er)a&s 40Q o( t)eadvan#ed ele#troni#s in $. ea&ons systems ere #oming (rom Ja&an, mi#roele#troni#s

be#ame a (o#us o( maFor debate in t)e Pentagon and National se#urity 7oun#il $. #on#ernrea#)ed (urore levels )en uFitsu announ#ed &lans to buy t)e air#)ild .emi#ondu#tor

7or&oration, and t)e Ja&anese (irm abandoned its intended &ur#)aseG2T)e dollar value o( Ja&anese e"&orts to t)e $. in#reased (rom K314bn in 19>0 to K=3bn in19>=, )ile $. e"&orts to Ja&an moved very modestly (rom K24=bn to K2=>bn Hugeannual $. de(i#its o&ened u&, em&)asising $. e#onomi# de#line relative to Ja&an

Liberalisation o( ban5ing and (inan#e in t)e 190s and 19>0s )el&ed &romote ra&id grot)and To5yo be#ame a leading (inan#ial #entre in t)e orld along it) London, Ne Ior5 andran5(urt Ja&an6s (inan#e mar5ets be#ame more integrated into t)e orld system and t)e#ountry be#ame a net e"&orter o( #a&ital n 19>= Ja&an be#ame t)e orld6s largest #reditornation /t t)e same time t)e $nited .tates under -eagan ent (rom t)e orld6s largest#reditor nation to its largest debtor nation, it) Ja&an #ru#ial to seeing t)e $nited .tates

t)roug) re#ession, (inan#ing mu#) o( t)e $. de(i#it t)roug) buying u& government bondsn 7ali(ornia a uarter o( all ban5ing assets ere oned by Ja&anese by 1990G2 Ja&an alsotoo5 advantage o( yen a&&re#iation to buy large amounts o( $. &ro&erty

Ja&an6s e#onomi# strengt) alloed it to e"&and into /sia and Euro&e, bot) as an e"&orter o(#a&ital and goods and as a builder o( (a#tories y t)e end o( t)e 19>0s Ja&an &rovided t)elargest amount o( ne investment in )at remained o( t)e ritis) manu(a#turing se#tor andas using its ritis) #ar &lants and ot)er (a#tories as a road into t)e E7 t also &layed a 5eyrole in t)e reorganisation o( t)ird orld debt t)roug) t)e !iya%aa &lan /t t)e same timein#reased overseas aid &ut Ja&an at t)e to& o( aid givers in dollar disbursements Iusa)iro

Na5asone 2;>? soug)t to bring Ja&an6s role in international &oliti#s more into

line it) t)is e#onomi# &oer, but #onservative o&&onents ere relu#tant to brea5 it) t)emore timid &oliti#al &oli#ies )i#) )ad &roven so su##ess(ul in t)e &ast and )is su##essorsere more #autious n e((e#t, )ile Ja&an as &laying an essential international role, notonly as t)e orld6s most dynami# e#onomy but also in 5ee&ing t)e orld e#onomy a(loat,To5yo not only #ontinued to (ollo 'as)ington in (oreign &oli#y but also a#uies#ed in

bringing in voluntary e"&ort restraints and mar5et;o&ening measures

$. &oli#y o((i#ially aimed at en#ouraging Ja&an to s)are more in its on de(en#e and &lay agreater role in international relations, but t)ere as alays an ambivalen#e about t)is/meri#an (ears ere revealed by some o( t)eir less #andid o((i#ials or instan#e, a##ordingto $. $nder;.e#retary o( .tate Ceorge all in mid;192, rearming Ja&an ould bedangerous as @you never 5no )en t)e Ja&anese ill go a&eAG2> T)irteen years later,

T)eodore ')ite as arning, @Today t)e Ja&anese are on t)e move again in one o( )istory6smost brilliant #ommer#ial o((ensives, as t)ey go about dismantling /meri#an industryAG29or t)e /meri#ans6 to& !arine general in Ja&an during t)is &eriod, !aFor;Ceneral Henry 7.ta#5&ole , @no;one ants a rearmed, resurgent Ja&anA, and $. troo&s t)ere a#t as @a #a&in t)e bottleA He also #laimed t)e Ja&anese @)ave a#)ieved t)e Creater /sia 7o;&ros&erity.&)ere e#onomi#ally, it)out gunsAG30

T)e orry in t)e 'est is not Fust t)at Ja&an6s su##ess &oses a t)reat to t)eir on industriesand &osition in t)e orld, but is also ra#ial /s -obert Cil&in sees it, t)e 'est (inds@Ja&anese e#onomi# su##ess &arti#ularly t)reatening be#ause it is t)e (irst non;'estern andnon;liberal so#iety to out#om&ete t)emAG31

ut Ja&an6s su##ess is (ar (rom unuali(ied /lt)oug), by 1991 its CNP &er #a&ita o( K2,000&ut it at t)e to& o( t)e table o( #ountries it) over 10 million &eo&le, .a5aiya sees Ja&an as @a
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)ell (or #onsumersA in )i#) @material a((luen#e is o((set by a drab ay o( li(e T)e #ost o(living is )ig)B or5ing )ours are longB and t)oug) ealt) is abundant, most o( it is in land,)i#) sells at astronomi#al &ri#esA He also #laims t)at even a(ter t)e #olla&se o( t)e 8bubblee#onomy6 aggregate mar5et value o( Ja&anese land is (our times t)at o( all land in t)e $.G32 'it) )ig) #onsumer &ri#es, &er #a&ita #onsum&tion is only 3Q t)at o( t)e $.

-egulations on land develo&ment &ut an e"tra K4,000 on )ouse;building #osts )ilst seageand &lumbing installation in )omes #ost eig)t times as mu#) as in t)e $.G33 /nd, as EJLin#oln )as noted, industrial and in(rastru#ture investment too5 &la#e at t)e e"&ense o(sideal5s, streets, seers, seers and ot)er so#ial (a#ilitiesG34

/ &ro#ess o( diminis)ing returns )as also set in, it) Ja&an, li5e t)e $. and ritain be(ore it,(a#ing e#onomi# &roblems arising (rom its on su##ess t is also stu#5 it) a &oliti#al set;u& belonging to anot)er era, one )ose su##ess ma5es it relu#tant to #arry out t)e re(ormsne#essary to ta5e Ja&an into a #om&li#ated ne orld situation n t)e ne"t se#tion s)alle"&lore t)ese &roblems and t)eir rami(i#ations (or bot) Ja&anese;$. relations and (or Ja&an6s

&la#e in t)e orld

6# '& $&0&*%', F% %/78 Japan and the 2, in the new world order

e"oming a normal; power

T)e ne Ja&an @needs a #onstitution giving it unambiguous sovereignty and legitimi%ing itsarmed (or#esAG3= t also )as an @ardent desire to be given &ermanent members)i& o( t)e$N .e#urity 7oun#ilAG3 T)is desire does not Fust re(le#t a ne sense o( Ja&an6sim&ortan#e, )oever /s t)e old order #omes a&art, and everyone is (or#ed to Fo#5ey (or t)e

best &ossible &osition in t)e evolution o( t)e ne orld order, it is im&ortant (or Ja&an to beable to e"er#ise some degree o( &oliti#al &oer at t)e global level and &revent ot)ers,es&e#ially t)e $nited .tates, (rom being able to set t)e terms o( international relations

n order to e"&and its in(luen#e and a#t li5e a @normalA &oer, Ja&an )as to over#ome itsasso#iation it) artime atro#ities in mainland /sia /s 7)arles .mit) &uts it, @t)e ay t)atJa&an #)ooses to vie its &ast ill be a 5ey (a#tor in determining )et)er and )en t)e#ountry #an begin to &lay a role in orld &oliti#s #ommensurate it) its burgeoninge#onomi# #loutAG3

T)e Ja&anese elite is divided over ta#ti#s on t)is uestionG3> ne se#tion )olds atraditionalist vie t)at great &oers do not a&ologise (or t)eir a#tions, )ile t)e ot)er se#tion(eels t)at a&ologising, es&e#ially to /sia, (or Ja&an6s re#ord in t)ose years ill allo To5yo to

begin it) a ne slate

n 1993, s)ortly a(ter )is ele#tion, !ori)iro Hoso5aa be#ame t)e (irst leader o( &ostarJa&an to state t)at t)e #ountry )ad #ommitted aggression /t t)e /ugust 1994 #eremonies ont)e 49t) anniversary o( Ja&an6s surrender, Premier Tomii#)i !urayama o((ered @)eart(elt#ondolen#esA and @dee& re&entan#eA to /sia Iet at t)e same time, si" #abinet ministersattended #eremonies at t)e Iasu5uni .)rine / (e days earlier anot)er minister )ad toresign t)e se#ond in t)ree mont)s over #omments &laying don Ja&anese ar guilt neo( t)e resigned ministers, .)in .a5urai, )ad #laimed t)at Ja&anese o##u&ation o( /sian#ountries )ad led to @inde&enden#e, t)e &o&ularisation o( demo#ra#y and in#reasedlitera#yAG39

T)e battle over te"tboo5 )istory also re(le#ts di((ering assessments o( )o to &ro#eed, it)!inistry o( Edu#ation #ensors)i&, )i#) (rom t)e 19=0s to t)e 19>0s &revented s#)ool te"ts

#overing Ja&an6s ar re#ord in /sia, re#eiving some setba#5s T)e @NanFing n#identA andot)er atro#ities )ave (inally a&&eared, alt)oug) t)e numbers 5illed in t)em is still &layed
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donG40 ')ile some o( t)e anti;a&ologist #am& are traditionalists su#) as t)e Ja&anereaved amilies /sso#iation, )i#) )as to 9 t)at sin#e Ja&an )ad@im&roved its national strengt) and u&graded its &osition in t)e international #ommunityA itas im&ortant to give #)ildren @a &ro&er aareness o( t)eir on #ountryA by tea#)ing t)emabout @)istori#al (a#tsA T)ese @(a#tsA ere to be ones )i#) ould lead #)ildren to @(oster alove (or t)eir on #ountryAG41

')ile many #ommentators see a #leansing o( t)e &ast as essential i( Ja&an is to get su&&ortsu((i#ient to be#ome a &ermanent member o( t)e $N .e#urity 7oun#il, some im&ortantJa&anese (igures see it as more o( a (inan#ial issue @'e6ll be raising our #ontribution to t)e$N budget soon (rom 124 &er#ent to 1= &er#ent and t)at s)ould give us a rig)t o( entry,A asenior oreign !inistry o((i#ial re#ently told t)eFar Eastern Economic ReviewG42

T)e end o( t)e old order )it Ja&an very suddenly T)e erlin 'all #ame don, mar5ing t)eend o( t)e 7old 'arB Hiro)ito diedB during t)e mourning rites (or )im t)e -e#ruit s#andale"&loded, bringing don t)e government and ending t)e LOP6s un#)allenged reign o( t)ree;and;a;)al( de#adesB t)en t)e bubble e#onomy burst and a generalised re#ession set in T)e!ar#) 1992 &a#5age o( emergen#y measures #utting interest rates and in#reasinggovernment e"&enditure &roved unable to li(t t)e #ountry out o( re#ession T)e Ni55einde" )i#) )ad already (allen (rom a 39,000 &ea5 to 23,000 slum&ed to belo 1=,000 at t)eend o( July 1992 n to& o( t)is, t)e $nited .tates ent to ar in t)e Persian Cul( as mu#)as anyt)ing to assert its leaders)i& o( t)e 'est and (or#e its rivals in be)ind and demandedt)at Ja&an, )i#) a#tually )ad not)ing to gain (rom t)e #on(li#t, (oot mu#) o( t)e billG43Ja&an as also to s)o its in(erior and subordinate &osition to t)e $nited .tates6 )i;te#) ar

ma#)ine by &roviding some medi#s and su&&ly s)i&sG44 t as a traumati# to years or so

T)e Cul( 'ar em&)asised t)e over)elmingly dominant &osition o( t)e $. in t)e military(ield !any o( Ja&an6s a#tions #ould be inter&reted as trying to o((set su#) $. &oer T)is)el&s e"&lain Ja&an6s ent)usiasm (or strengt)ening international institutions su#) as t)e $Nand (or t)e establis)ment o( some sort o( /sian &ea#e5ee&ing allian#e / Ja&anese &la#e ont)e .e#urity 7oun#il, es&e#ially i( t)e 7oun#il ere enlarged, #ould a#t as a bra5e on $.

&oer /not)er ay t)e Ja&anese )ave been trying to restri#t t)e $. (rom being able to useits vast military su&eriority as a &oer(ul &oliti#al lever in t)e ne orld order is t)roug)ta5ing t)e moral )ig) ground

T)us Ja&an em&)asises its status as a 8vi#tim6, t)e only #ountry to )ave )ad nu#lear ea&ons

used against it, and t)ere(ore )aving a s&e#ial #ommitment to international &ea#e and)umanitarianism 7arol Clu#5, (or instan#e, )as noted t)at in de#reeing a #)ange o( name (orJa&an6s ar o( 1931;4= (rom Creater East /sian 'ar to Pa#i(i# 'ar, ie t)e less t)an (ouryears o( ar e"&erien#ed by t)e $nited .tates, T)e ##u&ation also #reated a @tidy moraleuation o( Pearl Harbour to Hiros)imaA T)is @a#5noledged t)e atta#5 at t)e same timet)at it gave Ja&an its bona (ides as vi#tim o( nu#lear ar in a ne &ostar mission o(

&reserving &ea#eAG4= Today, Ja&an6s moral )ig) ground o( vi#tim)ood is buttressed by itsstatus as t)e orld6s leading aid donor, alt)oug) several $. #ommentators )ave suggestedt)at Ja&anese aid &rimarily serves its business interests

/t t)e same time Ja&an )as been develo&ing its on armed (or#es and no )as t)e (ourt) or

(i(t) largest military establis)ment in t)e orld !al#olm !#ntos) )as noted t)at )ilebuilding /meri#an eui&ment under li#en#e in Ja&an )as in#reased &er unit #osts by 30;=0
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&er#ent, it also means t)at t)e Ja&anese )ave been able to im&rove t)e reliability and&er(orman#e o( t)e eui&ment / 5ey (a#tor in t)e )ig) #ost o( &rodu#tion is its small s#ale.in#e Ja&an is #onstitutionally (orbidden (rom e"&orting arms it #an only &rodu#e smallamounts (or its on de(en#e


11/27

and on its (ourt) government sin#e t)e trade tal5s began last year, seems &oliti#ally#)aoti#AG=1

T)e end o( )ig);s&eed grot), t)e onset o( substantial government de(i#its and t)e gri& o(re#ession mean t)at t)e bureau#ra#y #an no longer give somet)ing to everyone T)ese(eatures, alongside t)e end o( t)e #old ar, )ave s)on u& t)e orn;out nature o( t)e &ost;194= &oliti#al establis)ment in Ja&an ut )ile t)e LOP6s (ra#turing, t)e rise o( ne &artiesand &arliamentary #rises are, as Darel van 'ol(eren notes, @sym&toms o( a disorientationit)out &re#edent in &ostar Ja&anAG=2it is &roving no easy tas5 to brea5 t)e logFam#reated by t)e domination o( old guard bureau#rats and traditional &oliti#ians

Pro=lems of e"onomi" reform and re"ession

.ome o( t)e &roblems re(ormers (a#e, given t)e intermes)ing o( business, state;bureau#rati#and &oliti#al interests, and t)e ay in )i#) t)is tends to lead toards #atastro&)e, areevident in t)e #onstru#tion se#tor ne o( t)e e((e#ts o( t)e @bubble e#onomyA as t)eastronomi#al in#reases in &ro&erty &ri#es, es&e#ially in To5yo T)is im&a#ted on a buildingindustry )i#) )ad long relied on government #ontra#ts, at )ugely in(lated rates, t)an5s to t)e

#onne#tions beteen t)e industry and a layer o( LOP &oliti#ians and state bureau#rats T)e&ri#es rea#)ed levels )ere eventually &eo&le sto&&ed buying and renting and, )en t)ebubble burst, (irms ere le(t it) )uge debt over)angs our years on, t)e #onstru#tionindustry is still in a state o( slum&, it) orders (or #ommer#ial buildings )aving &lummetedto almost %ero and some &arts o( To5yo )aving 10;20 &er#ent va#an#ies, #om&ared to a mereone &er#ent (ive years agoG=3

T)is intermes)ing o( interests ta5es &la#e rig)t a#ross t)e board, and is e&itomised inamakudarior 8des#ent (rom )eaven6, a term )i#) denotes t)e ay in )i#) retiring #ivilservants move into )ig) &osts made available to t)em in t)e &rivate se#tor T)is is not sim&lya reard (or &ast (avours sin#e, as umitos)i Ta5a)as)i notes, @n a business orld )ere

o&erations de&end on se#uring li#en#es and obeying t)e regulators, (ormer &ubli# o((i#ials#an serve a #om&any use(ully .u#) ba#5;s#rat#)ing beteen t)e &ubli# and &rivate se#tors isell 5non to all Ja&aneseAG=4 / ty&i#al e"am&le o( t)e ay in )i#) t)e state &rote#ts

&rivate #on#erns, says Ta5a)as)i is t)e ay state bureau#rats (rom t)e !inistry o( inan#este& in and ta5e over t)e o&eration o( any ban5 )i#) is in grave danger o( #olla&se


12/27

Ja&an )as still not #ome out o( re#ession Ja&anese ban5s, )i#) on#e )el&ed (inan#e t)eorld e#onomy t)roug) re#ession, no (a#e )uge debt over)angs 1993 sa t)e (irst #losureo( a Ja&anese #ar &lant sin#e 194=, )en Nissan s)ut don its ama &lant, t)eEconomistnoting @as )ig) labour #osts and a rising yen ma5e it less &ro(itable to manu(a#ture in Ja&an,more industrial &lant is being le(t idleAG=> Ja&anese s)are o( t)e $. #ar mar5et )as

de#lined (rom 29Q in 1991 to 2=Q t)is year Ien a&&re#iation is no ma5ing $. #ars K2000#)ea&erB at t)e lu"ury end o( t)e mar5et Toyota6s Le"us L.400 sells at K4,000, #om&ared toC!6s 7adilla# Oe ille6s K3,000 n 1992 ord6s Taurus re&la#ed t)e Honda /##ord as t)e

best;selling #ar in t)e $. /lt)oug) (igures (or t)e (irst uarter o( 1994 &ut t)e /##ord ella)ead again, $. #ar manu(a#turers are (ar less orried about being dis&la#ed t)an t)ey erein t)e late 19>0s n t)e area o( &rodu#t uality t)e ga& is also #losing, )ile in ele#tri# #arst)e $. is a)ead Civen t)at t)e auto industry a##ounts (or 0Q o( Ja&an6s sur&lus it) t)e$., t)is is an im&ortant #)ange Not sur&risingly, 'as)ington )as in#luded #ar &arts as &arto( its trade grievan#es, anting a#tual $. manu(a#turers bn on t)eir boo5s T)is situation )as ledto a sell;o(( o( e"#ess &lant to #ountries su#) as man and $%be5istan !ean)ile, a ma%eo( regulations )amstrings not only im&orts but ma5es it di((i#ult (or im&ortant industries su#)as tele#oms to #at#) u& it) t)eir $. rivals n 19>= t)e giant Ni&&on Tele&)one andTelegra&) seemed &oised to lead /sia6s multimedia industry, (or instan#e, but )as been)andi#a&&ed by regulationsG0

T)e 1993;94 (is#al year sa %ero COP grot) )ile industrial out&ut at #tober 1993 as

10 &er#ent belo 1990 levelsB t)e 1994;9= &roFe#tion is only 12 &er#ent grot) Civen t)estagnation o( t)e last (our years, t)is is not mu#) o( a re#overy /n im&ortant (a#tor instimulating )at grot) t)ere )as been as t)e ebruary 1994 in#ome ta" #uts o( around Itrillion


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ne o( t)e di((i#ulties t)at t)e e#onomi# re(ormers (a#e is t)at t)e tradition o( state regulationis not sim&ly a &rodu#t o( t)e 19== &oliti#al system, but goes ba#5 at least to t)e ar &eriodand in many ays to t)e very origins o( industrialisation in t)e !eiFi &eriod /s advo#ates o(re(orm su#) as Iu5io Nogi#)i note, @)ile t)e 19== set u& )as #olla&sed, (rom an e#onomi#vie&oint not)ing )as #)anged be#ause t)e 1940 set u& #ontinues unalteredAG= Iet

deregulation ould be an e"#eedingly &ain(ul &ro#ess/ re&ort by t)e Ja&an -esear#) nstitute estimates t)at t)e (lood o( #)ea& (oreign goods intot)e #ountry ould i&e out 41 million Fobs and #ause a I33 trillion dro& in demand G/lt)oug) t)e re&ort also estimates t)at su#) deregulation ould also #reate I4= trillion indemand and generate =1 million ne Fobs, t)ere ould &resumably be a time;lag beteent)e to &eriods n addition, t)e e"&erien#e o( see&ing deregulation in ot)er #ountries su#) as ritain and Ne ealand sim&ly does not s)o su#) an in#rease in Fobs or even in#onsumer demand n (a#t, (i(teen years a(ter deregulation started in ritain, and a de#ade onin Ne ealand, unem&loyment in bot) #ountries is )ig)er t)an )en t)e re(orms began!oreover, t)e most noti#eable result o( deregulation in bot) #ountries as )uge s&e#ulative

s&rees )i#) resulted in ides&read #olla&se: in Ne ealand almost )al( t)e #om&anies andassets registered on t)e sto#5 e"#)ange ere i&ed out in t)e #tober 19> #ras)

')ile t)e &ressure (or e#onomi# deregulation and lessening t)e &oer o( t)e statebureau#ra#y is groing, t)e return to government o( t)e LOP and .OP t)e to &arties it)t)e most to lose in a (undamental s)a5e;u& t)e &ro#ess o( re(orm )as stalled

+he present 2,-Japan trade relationship: "o-operation or "onfli"t

n t)e early 190s, Tana5a rote, @T)e orld )as begun its turn aay (rom t)e long years o(division and #on(rontation and toard a ne era o( #o;e"isten#e and international #o;o&erationAG Tenty years on, )ile #o;o&eration is (ar (rom dead, it is under severestrain and t)ere is little sign t)at t)e strain #an be eradi#ated T)e de#ay o( $. e#onomi#

su&rema#y and dee&ening so#ial and &oliti#al malaise at )ome undermine /meri#an aut)orityon t)e orld stage No t)e 'est is it)out t)e mena#e o( #ommunism to )old it toget)er, itis dividing into regional trade blo#s and even it)in t)ese national tensions are barelysu&&ressedG>

T)e dilemma is summarised by .aburo us)i: @Euro&e6s e#onomies are struggling t)roug) a&eriod o( %ero grot)B Ja&an6s e#onomy )as yet to brea5 out o( a #om&le" re#essionB and)ile t)e $. e#onomy )as resumed an e"&ansion, it is unable to &ull t)e rest along it) itA!oreover )ile @Poli#y #o;ordination among t)e leading industrial #ountries is a &rereuisite(or ending t)e global slum& t)e C nations seem to )ave little leeay t)ese days and )ave

begun going t)eir res&e#tive aysAG9

ne maFor #ommentator, Lester 7 T)uro, says o( trade #on(li#t beteen /meri#a, Euro&eand Ja&an, t)e @de#isive ar o( t)e #entury )as begunAG0 T)is t)ree;#ornered (ig)t, )e

believes, )as no re&la#ed t)e long 7old 'ar beteen 8East6 and 8'est6

/long it) #ar &arts, t)e &resent trade dis&ute )as involved insuran#e, indo glass,tele#oms and medi#al eui&ment 'as)ington )as also atta#5ed t)e ay in )i#) bids (orgovernment #ontra#ts are &resently evaluated and #alling (or t)e loering o( t)e minimumsi%e o( #ontra#t (or )i#) trans&arent, #om&etitive bidding s)ould be reuiredG1 n#tober 1 Ja&an and t)e $. announ#ed a ne deal )i#) @resolved dis&utes over indoglass, government &ro#urement, insuran#e and t)e #riteria on )i#) Ja&an6s &rogress ino&ening its mar5ets may be FudgedA,G2but t)e battle over auto &arts )as Fust begun T)e$nited .tates is no beginning a year;long investigation o( Ja&an6s im&orts o( auto &arts andalso s#rutinising rules )i#) blo#5 sales o( $. in(ormation te#)nology n t)is, t)ey areusing .e#tion 301 and .u&er 301, #lauses )i#) #an be dated ba#5 to t)e 194 Trade and
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Tari(( /#t )i#) as Catt;#onsistent 7)anges to t)at /#t in 19>4 &lus se#tions 301;310 o(t)e 19>> mnibus Trade and 7om&etitiveness /#t, )oever, involved im&osing timetablesand 8ben#)mar5s6 (or #ertain #ountries Ja&an, ndia, ra%il to remove 8restri#tions6 on $.trade or (a#e san#tions, an overall &oli#y )i#) Jagdis) )agati sees as violating Catt G3

Ja&an6s 7)ie( 7abinet .e#retary )as res&onded t)at t)is is @totally in#onsistent it) (reetradeA )ile !inister o( nternational Trade and ndustry -yutaro Has)imoto says t)ey arereserving @all rig)ts to ta5e every measure i( t)e $. ta5es unilateral a#tion against usAG4Civen t)at t)e /meri#ans are saying t)ere ill be no let;u& in tal5s on mar5et a##ess,relations beteen t)e to #ountries are not li5ely to im&rove

!oreover, t)e /meri#an obsession it) gaining a guaranteed mar5et in Ja&an goes beyonde#onomi# matters 2 T)e stress is laid on global #onvergen#e, it) Ja&an )aving to (it in it)international a##ounts and mar5et o&enness n t)e ne"t #entury, @e#onomi#s ill be at t)e#enter o( international a((airs, and t)e $.;Ja&an relations)i& ill &lay a 5ey role indetermining t)e #ourse o( global eventsAG>3 n (a#t, t)is #ould be seen as a disingenuous
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ignoring o( )o @global #onvergen#eA #omes aboutB in t)e orld o( -eal&oliti5 it is a#tually&resided over by someone, namely t)e )egemon, and at &resent t)at is still t)e $nited .tates/ more realisti# evaluation o( international relations by Cais)i Hiraia notes, @t)e dramati#redu#tion in e"ternal t)reats )as diminis)ed t)e urgen#y o( &oliti#al solidarity among t)enations o( t)e 'est /s a result, national interests in t)e e#onomi# arena are ta5ing on (ar

greater signi(i#an#e, leading to )eig)tened global (ri#tion Le(t to itsel(, t)is develo&mentmay not only ea5en t)e (rameor5 (or bilateral and multilateral &oliti#al #o;o&eration but#ould also ultimately undermine t)e (oundations o( international organi%ationsAG>4

.aying t)at t)e $. ants &rote#tionism a guarantee o( a s)are o( a (oreign mar5et, Fust asim&ort &rote#tionism guarantees a s)are o( your domesti# mar5et )agati argues t)at $.

&oli#y @(ails to gras& t)e signi(i#ant #)anges t)at ma5e bot) t)e style and t)e substan#e o(t)ese demands una##e&table to t)e ne Ja&anAG>= n t)e #)anging orld situation )e notest)at t)e Ja&anese )ave learnt (rom t)e /meri#ans )o to &ut t)eir (eet on t)e table in t)e#lassroom instead o( sim&ly boing to aut)ority $. &oli#y;ma5ers and advisers, @mainly'all .treet luminaries and )ig);&ro(ile layer;lobbyistsA, &lus t)e @.ili#on alley

entre&reneursA )o ba#5ed 7linton and )ose vies )e6s ado&ted, (ail to understand, says)agati, t)e trans(ormation going on in Ja&an ')ile t)is is &robably true, it only e"&lains)al( t)e &i#ture T)e ot)er )al( is t)at t)e $nited .tates, in t)e #onte"t o( t)e erosion o( bot)its industrial #om&etivity and its &oliti#al dominan#e o( t)e orld, is (or#ed to #ontinuallyreassert its interests and try to (or#e #)allengers to its &osition to #ontinue to (all in be)ind

Pressurising Ja&an is not sim&ly a 7lintonite &oli#y o&tion: )oever mu#) t)ey may (alsi(yt)e a#tual trade imbalan#e it) Ja&an, t)e 7lintonites are dealing it) real &roblems t)oseo( $. &oliti#al and e#onomi# de#line in t)e orldG> T)is reality adds an element o(un#ertainty to trade and ot)er #on(li#ts beteen t)e to #ountriesB at t)is &oint in timenobody may (avour a trade or #urren#y ar, but t)e tensions mean t)at t)ere is a groingdanger t)at t)ings may indeed @s&in out o( #ontrolRAG> 'e mig)t also note a (urt)er

destabilising element: t)e 7linton administration is )aving a noti#eable la#5 o( su##ess ont)e domesti# (ront its re(orms in t)e areas o( )ealt), gays in t)e military, and gun #ontrol,)ave all stalled /t t)e same time t)e administration )as been )it by (inan#ial and se"uals#andal $nable to solve domesti# &roblems or establis) its aut)ority on t)e )ome (ront, t)e7linton regime may ell be #om&ensating by aving t)e big sti#5 overseas eing belli#oseit) Ja&an, invading .omalia and Haiti, or bombing ag)dad, are a lot easier t)an sorting oute#onomi# de#line, urban de#ay and all t)e ot)er &roblems )i#) beset t)e $nited .tates

'illiam P(a(( )as noted t)at @national &oer rests on a triad: military &oerB e#onomi#&oer, in#or&orating te#)nologi#al leaders)i& or #om&etitivenessB and (inally so#ial #o)esionand &ubli# #onsensus on national goalsAG>> Li5e most $. #ommentators )e reveals an

a#ute sense o( $. de#line, seeing in Ja&an6s (inan#ing o( t)e $. de(i#it and in t)e bilateraltrade de(i#it @a #olonial as&e#tA by )i#) @Ja&an buys lo;value;added (ood and ramaterials (rom t)e $nited .tates )ile selling it in#reasingly )ig);value;added )ig)te#)nology manu(a#turesA T)is relations)i& @multi&lies Ja&an6s advantage greatlyB )en#e t)e$nited .tates ris5s (alling (urt)er and (urt)er be)indAG>9 Ja&an6s role in (inan#ing t)e $.de(i#it is also seen as being based on sel(;interest sin#e it @sustains a still;ri#) mar5etim&ortant to t)emAG90

T)e &roblem (or t)e $nited .tates )i#) P(a(( li5e many ot)er /meri#an #ommentatorsdoes not really #ome to gri&s it) is t)at, it) t)e &ostar boom and t)e so#ial glue o( anti;#ommunism gone, t)e #ountry la#5s so#ial #o)esion as ell as e#onomi# dynamism Noamount o( #riti#ism o( Ja&an #an ma5e u& (or t)is ')at t)e $nited .tates is still strong in,)oever es&e#ially its military #a&ability ill be resorted to more and more bot) to assert$. aut)ority and to attem&t to bind toget)er /meri#an &ubli# o&inion T)e $. is
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in#reasingly (or#ed to (ind or, usually, invent ne enemies, in &arti#ular ne t)reats toorld &ea#e y &ortraying #ountries in t)is ay, t)e $. #an #ontinue its 7old 'ar role o(orld &oli#emanG91

n ebruary 1994 Ja&an said no (or t)e (irst time to $. trade demands Ja&an )as a trumard in its massive amount o( $. government bonds, )i#) are dollar;denominated and)ose dum&ing ould send t)e dollar (urt)er &lummeting and also (or#e u& /meri#aninterest rates Ja&an6s relu#tan#e to give in to $. demands #ould be seen as a sign o(strengt), and it is true t)at t)e &ossession o( )uge amounts o( dollar;denominated $.government bonds is an im&ortant ea&on Large;s#ale dum&ing o( t)ese bonds #ould sendt)e dollar &lummeting and also )it $. interest rates Hoever, a donturn in t)e $.e#onomy ould inevitably rebound on Ja&an sin#e its )uge assets t)ere ould be eroded by(urt)er de#line o( t)e dollar Oemand (or Ja&anese goods ould de#rease /s t)e orld6slargest e#onomy it) )uge domesti# demand and less de&enden#y on e"&orts t)an Ja&an, t)e$. is &robably less vulnerable in a trade #on(li#t t)an Ja&an Hisa)i5o 5a%ai, an e";ambassador to T)ailand )as arned t)at i( Ja&an angers t)e 'est retaliatory &rote#tionist

measures #ould #ause t)e #olla&se o( t)e Ja&anese e#onomy .&e#ial #are needs to be ta5en,)e argues, to avert t)e $.;Ja&anese allian#e (alling a&art

/##ording to !asaa5i .ato Ja&an6s &osition as )i;te#) leader is rat)er (ragile /lt)oug) it#an &rodu#e goods ine"&ensively and reliably, @it is less ade&t at a#)ieving te#)nologi#al

brea5t)roug)sAG92 /&&le and ot)er $. manu(a#turers still )old a de#isive lead indevelo&ing t)e underlying o&eration system (or multimedia #om&uters reuiring image; andvoi#e;&ro#essing devi#es Ja&anese #om&uter manu(a#turers trying to #om&ete in t)e $.mar5et, )ere #om&atibility is im&ortant, )ave to use $. logi# #)i&s .ony, (or instan#e, ist)e biggest buyer o( #)i&s made by !otorola eing unable to #om&ete in some areas, su#)as O-/!., /meri#an #om&anies (o#us on logi# devi#es su#) as #entral &ro#essors )i#)#ommand )ig) &ri#es ntel, (or e"am&le, no )ave >0Q o( t)e orld mar5et in 7P$s n

(a#t, even in O-/!. a $. #om&any, Te"as nstruments, )olds t)e 5ey &atent and Ja&anesema5ers )ave to &ay substantial royalties

T)e $. )as a (urt)er advantage in t)at )aving been t)roug) re#ession in t)e 19>0s and early1990s, it )as already s)a5en out #)un5s o( old industry, leaving a leaner, more e((i#ient and#om&etitive se#tor /##ording to a ne .iss study, (or instan#e, t)e $nited .tates no )ast)e orld6s most #om&etitive e#onomy )ilst Ja&an )as sli&&ed ba#5 to t)ird &la#e 'it) t)es)a5ing out &ro#ess s#ar#ely )aving begun in Ja&an, it may be t)at To5yo sim&ly #annot givein to $. demands it)out o&ening a (loodgate )i#) ould undermine some #ore e#onomi#se#tors and bring don t)e &ostar &oliti#al set;u& Not sur&risingly, t)ere is (ormidableo&&osition to $. demands (rom im&ortant se#tions o( t)e government, state bureau#ra#y and

&rivate business'it) its de&enden#e on e"&orts, Ja&an #ertainly remains vulnerable to $. &ressure y t)eend o( t)e 19>0s e"&orts a##ounted (or 1=Q o( Ja&anese CNP Nort) /meri#a as ta5ingalmost one;t)ird o( t)ese e"&orts, )ile Euro&e and Nort) /meri#a #ombined a##ounted (oralmost ==Q or (orty years t)e $nited .tates )ad @se#ured (or Ja&an t)e resour#es itreuired and &rovided a##ess to t)e (oreign mar5ets it neededA and (reed it @(rom t)e burdenso( state#ra(tAG93 T)e 7old 'ar ensured t)at t)e in#reasingly serious trade and e#onomi##on(li#ts beteen t)e $. and Ja&an ere #ontained Today, Ja&an is (or#ed to (ind t)e meansto se#ure its on &ros&erity and to (end o(( /meri#an &ressure /s riedman and Leardnote, at &resent Ja&an is no real mat#) (or t)e $nited .tates militarily and in terms o(de&enden#y u&on bot) e"&orts and im&orted resour#es so To5yo6s tas5 is @to ma5e #ertaint)at t)is is not t)e #ase a generation (rom noAG94
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/n im&ortant as&e#t o( lessening de&enden#e on t)e 'est is t)e o&ening u& o( ne mar5ets es&e#ially in /siaG9= /sia is also essential (or Ja&an being able to redu#e its &rodu#tion#osts t)roug) utilising lo#al #)ea& labour and ra materials Not only ould Ja&an )avea##ess to #)ea& labour on t)e /sian mainland and an e"&anding mar5et (or its goods, but int)e #ase o( .iberia it )as a &otential sour#e o( oil and ot)er essential ra materials (or )i#)

it &resently is over)elmingly de&endent on t)e Persian Cul( and /ustralia, bot) o( )i#)are #losely #onne#ted it) t)e $. n 19>> an E#onomi# Planning /gen#y study suggested a#om&re)ensive integration o( t)e /sian e#onomy it) Ja&an serving as t)e dire#ting brainT)e same year t)e !inistry o( inan#e set u& t)e 7ommittee (or /sia;Pa#i(i# E#onomi#-esear#) nvestment )as e"&anded in ndia, !alaya, T)ailand, ndonesia and ot)er /sian#ountries /id )as also gronB Ja&anese annual aid to T)ailand


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outgro its geo#entri# vie o( t)e universe, in )i#) ot)er #ountries seem to e"ist &rimarilyto serve $. interestsA He argues t)at t)e $. needs to ta5e some o( its on medi#ine rat)ert)an @a#t it) t)e arrogan#e o( a )egemonA, saying, @P)ysi#ian, )eal t)ysel(AG10=

n t)is #onte"t, a ne &oliti#s is emerging in Ja&an 7alls (or a more o&en e#onomy #ome notonly (rom t)ose )o #ontinue to see Ja&an6s (uture as being subordinate to t)e $nited .tates

but also (rom voi#es more assertive o( Ja&an6s interests T)is &ro#ess is still at a relativelyearly stage and mu#) o( t)e dis#ussion is &)rased in very mild terms #ertainly (ar mildert)an mu#) o( t)e dis#ussion about Ja&an t)at goes on in t)e $. ')at is #lear is t)at it) t)edissolution o( t)e old orld order and intense #ontestation over &la#es in t)e ne &e#5ingorder, Ja&an )as little alternative but to, as )agati &)rases it, &ut its (eet on t)e table /ndt)e $. )as little alternative but to try to 5no#5 t)em o((

/s t)e ne millennium a&&roa#)es, #rises and #on(li#t seem more li5ely t)an any brave neage o( international #o;o&eration, &ea#e and s)ared &ros&erity /s riedman and Leard &utit, #ommon interests are disintegrating and all t)at is being le(t is @t)e #ommon #on(li#t

beteen nations (alling to t)e de&t)s o( e#onomi# (ri#tions and &oer &oliti#s, as in

1914AG10T)e orld des#ribed by Lenin inImperialism seems to be returningG1.ee Ceorge !odels5i,Exploring Long Cycles, oulder, 7olorado, Lynne -ienner, 19>B'illiam - T)om&son, On lo!al "ar# $istorical%&tructural 'pproac(es to "orld )olitics,7olumbia, $niversity o( .out) 7arolina Press, 19>>B mmanuel 'allerstein, *(e +odern"orld &ystem II, Ne Ior5, /#ademi# Press, 19>> and Paul Dennedy, *(e Rise and Fall o,t(e reat )owers, Ne Ior5, -andom House, 19>> / summary o( met)odologies, in#ludingorld systems t)eory, by )i#) $. (oreign &oli#y #an be analysed is #ontained in 7)arlesDegley Jr6s @T)e Long;Term uture o( /meri#an oreign Poli#y: T)ree ProFe#tionsA,

Jerusalem Journal o, International Relations-ol 12, no 2, 1990G2 Lenin,Imperialism# *(e $ig(est &tage o, Capitalism, inLenin Collected "orks vol

22, !os#o, Progress Publis)ers, 194, &&1>=;30=G3P)ili& /rmstrong, /ndre Clyn, Jo)n Harrison, Capitalism &ince ./01-London, asilla#5ell, 1991, &11 .ee also a&&endi", table 1G4.ee, (or e"am&le, ran#is u5uyama, *(e End o, $istory and t(e Last +an-Ne Ior5,!a#!illan n#, 1992G=Jo)n ' Ooer, @T)e $se(ul 'arA,2aedalus, vol 119, no 3, 1990, &=2GTa5atos)i to, *(e Japanese Economy, 7ambridge ibidG9n ot)er ords, #a&ital is not sim&ly a t)ing but a so#ial relationG10.ee Ooer, o& #it, &&49;0

G11ibid, &=1G12or instan#e, be(ore 192 t)ere ere 1400 ordinary #ommer#ial ban5s in Ja&anB in 1931,>3B 193, 41>B 194=, 1 T)ere )as not been mu#) #)ange sin#e He also s)os )oseveral im&ortant &ostar (inan#ial &ra#ti#es )ave t)eir origins in t)e ar e#onomy, and )ot)e ratio o( dire#t


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G14Dennet) Pyle, *(e Japanese 3uestion# )ower and )urpose in a New Era, /E Press,1992, &G1=!a5oto to), *(e "orld Economic Crisis and Japanese Capitalism, Ne Ior5, .t!artins Press, 1990, &14>G1n intense #om&etition and uality #ir#les, see, (or instan#e, !uto #)iyo, @7lass

.truggle and Te#)nologi#al nnovation in Ja&an .in#e 194=A,Note!ooks ,or &tudy andResearc(no =, /msterdam, 19>G1to, o& #it, &=>G1>7ited in Dosa5a, o& #it, &43G19igures #ited in to), &142G207ited in Pyle, o& #it, &2=G21n t)e 190s, Ios)ida ould e"&ress regret over t)e degree o( subservien#e bid, &2;2>G22bid, &44G237)almers Jo)nson, @T)e Peo&le ')o nvented t)e !e#)ani#al Nig)tingaleA, 2aedalusvol 119, no 3, .ummer 1990

G247ited, ibid, &&3;3 Ja&an also bene(ited on t)e moral )ig) ground it) &remier Eisa5u.ato being aarded t)e Nobel Pea#e Pri%e, &artly (or staying out o( t)e ietnam 'arG2=Da5uei Tana5a,Building a New Japan# a plan ,or remodelling t(e Japanese arc(ipelago,To5yo, .imul Press, 193G2.ee -obert -ei#), @T)e -ise o( Te#)no;NationalismA,'tlantic +ont(ly, !ay 19>G2Economist, ebruary 1, 1990G2>all in t)eNew 4ork *imes +aga5ine, June 2=, 192 7ited in Pyle, o& #it, &11;12G29New 4ork *imes +aga5ine, July 29, 19>= 7ited ibid, &12G30uoted by red Hiatt, "as(ington )ost, !ar#) 2, 1990 7ited ibid, &1G31-obert Cil&in, *(e )olitical Economy o, International Relations, Prin#eton, Ne Jersey,Prin#eton $niversity Press, 19>, &319G32Tai#)i .a5aiya, @Li(ting t)e Heavy Hand o( ureau#rati# Cuidan#eA,Economic Eye, ol14, no 2, .ummer 1993, &&29;32G33Far Eastern Economic Review, .e&tember 29, 1994, &0G34EJ Lin#oln, @T)e .)oa E"&erien#eA,2aedalus, ol 119, no 3, .ummer 1990, &202G3=Darel an 'ol(eren, @Ja&an6s Non;-evolutionA,Foreign ',,airs, vol 2, no 4,.e&temberM#tober 1993, &=G3ibid, &4G37)arles .mit), @'ar and -emembran#eA,Far Eastern Economic Review, /ugust 2=,1994, &22G3>/##ording to van Hall, an /meri#an &ro(essor o( Ja&anese )istory at Deio $niversity,

@t)e leaders o( t)e establis)ment o( t)e &ostar &eriod do not really re&resent a #)ange o()eart or a real brea5 in motivation and outloo5A 7ited in ran5 uredi,+yt(ical )ast-Elusive Future# $istory and &ociety in an 'nxious 'ge, London, Pluto, 1991, &=2 or aJa&anese nationalist &ers&e#tive see Ios)i)isa Domori, @T)e re;riting o( ar )istory: aJa&anese vieA,Independent- ebruary 23, 19>9G39.mit), o& #itG40T)e )ig)est Ja&anese te"tboo5 (igure (or t)e @NanFing n#identA is 100,00, about a t)irdt)e 7)inese (igure n 19>2 t)e !inistry as unsu##ess(ul in trying to get @aggressionAre&la#ed by @advan#eA as t)e suitable ord to des#ribe Ja&anese military intervention inmainland /siaG417ited in uredi, o& #it, &30 ')at im&a#t t)is is )aving on Ja&anese students is not #lear

/ )ig) s#)ool tea#)er, uoted by .mit)


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G42.mit), o& #itG43Ja&an, im&orting 0 &er#ent o( its oil (rom t)e Hormu% .traits area as not 5een on anydisru&tion to t)e oil (loB it #ould do business it) .addam Hussein Fust as ell as it) t)eabsolutist monar#)y in Duait !oreover, Fa&an #ould not be e"&e#ted to be 5een about t)e

&ros&e#t o( t)e $nited .tates being in #ontrol o( t)e area and its oil (los

G44riginally t)e Dai(u government )ad &ut (orard a bill in t)e Oiet &ro&osing t)at Ja&anadvo#ate t)e establis)ment o( a $N Pea#e 7o;o&eration 7or&s in )i#) .el(;Oe(en#e or#es

&ersonnel #ould )old Foint status and assist in $N &ea#e;5ee&ing o&erations not involving(or#e T)e bill as it)dran a(ter 22 days o( )eated debate Ne"t, a 100;&erson medi#alteam as &romised, but t)e government #ould only (ind 20 volunteers and even t)ese endedu& returning )ome early T)e, #ivilian air#ra(t and s)i&s (or trans&orting (ood, ater andmedi#al su&&lies ere &romised but never materialised due to ides&read o&&osition,in#luding (rom t)e or5ers needed to servi#e t)em .ee Pyle, o& #it, &&12;129, (or an/meri#an vie #riti#al o( Ja&an6s role in t)e Cul( 'arG4=7arol Clu#5, @T)e dea o( .)oaA,2aedalus, ol 119, no 3, .ummer 1990, &14 'emig)t add t)at, in t)e ne orld order, Ja&an is trying to ma5e t)e most o( its vi#tim status,

using t)is as a moral argument to buttress its desire to a#t as @&ea#e;5ee&erA t is in t)is rolet)at Ja&anese troo&s )ave served overseas (or t)e (irst time sin#e 194=, namely as &art o( t)e$N (or#es in Dam&u#)eaG4.ee !al#olm !#ntos),Japan Rearmed, Ne Ior5, .t !artins Press, 19>G47)arles .mit), @-ig)t Turn: so#ialists move aay (rom &a#i(ist ideologyA, Far Eastern

Economic Review, .e&tember 14, 1994, &24G4>.ee /ndre D Hanami, @T)e Emerging !ilitary;ndustrial -elations)i& in Ja&an and t)e$. 7onne#tionA,'sian &urvey, ol 33, June 1993, (or t)e argument t)at Ja&an remainssigni(i#antly de&endent on t)e $. (or t)ese trans(ers or alternative vies see Ceorgeriedman and !eredit) Leard, *(e Coming "ar "it( Japan, Ne Ior5, .t !artins Press,1991, #)a&s 12;14B .)intaro s)i)ara, *(e Japan *(at Can &ay No, London, .imon and.#)uster, 1991, #)a& G49or an a##ount o( t)e ea5nesses o( t)e Ja&anese ban5ing and (inan#e systems seees&e#ially 7)risto&)er 'ood, *(e Bu!!le Economy, London, .idgi#5 and Ja#5son, 1992G=0or an a##ount o( t)e s&lits in t)e LOP and t)e ba#5grounds o( 5ey &oliti#al (igures in t)erealignments see, (or e"am&le, an uruma, @Ja&an /gainst tsel(A, Ne Ior5 -evie o(oo5s, !ay 12, 1994, &&1>;22G=1Economist, /ugust , 1994, &2=G=2an 'ol(eren, o& #it, &=4G=3T)is )as an im&ortant overall e#onomi# e((e#t, as be(ore t)e #ras) t)e industry a##ounted(or 1> &er#ent o( CNP and 10 &er#ent o( t)e or5(or#e t is estimated t)at 199 in#omes (or

leading (irms su#) as Taisei and DaFima ill only be 2=;33 &er#ent o( )at t)ey ere duringt)eir best years Not only do t)ey )ave )uge domesti# debts, but several billion dollars moreent don t)e drain in overseas ventures or a re#ent a##ount see Henny .ender6s @NoCoing a#5B re#overy eludes Ja&an6s #onstru#tion se#torA,Far Easter Economic Review,.e&tember 14, 1994G=4umitos)i Ta5a)as)i, @vervie: -ela"ing t)e !andarins6 Cri&A,Economic Eye, ol 1=,no 3, /utumn 1994, &2G==ibidG=.ee (or instan#e, TP Hill,)ro,its and Rates o, Return, Paris, E7O, 199 Oiagrams(rom Hill ;129? a&&ear in a&&endi" or a !ar"ian a##ount o( bot) t)e tenden#y o(t)e rate o( &ro(it to (all and t)e #ounter;a#ting tenden#ies see Oavid Ia((e, @T)e !ar"ian

T)eory o( #risis, 7a&ital and t)e .tateA,Economy and &ociety, ol2, no 2, !ay 193,London, -outledge and Degan Paul, &&1>;233 or a sele#tion o( vies see mmanuel
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'allerstein, Ernest !andel and /l(red Dlein5ne#)t eds,Long "ave Cycles, Ne Ior5, .t!artins Press, 1992G=.ee @Toyota sa#5s some robotsA,Bulletin "it( Newsweek, June 2>, 1994, & .ee

Economist, January 22, 1994, &> (or a dis#ussion o( some o( t)e &roblems relating to t)erole o( #om&uters in im&roving &rodu#tivity

G=>Economist, /ugust , 1994, &=2G=9.ee Tadais)i .aito, @Totally -eiredA,Look Japan, July 1994, &&14;1=G0Far Eastern Economic Review, .e&tember 29, 1994, &0G1Cais)i Hiraia, @7)allenges (or Ja&an and t)e $nited .tatesA,Economic Eye, ol 14, no2, .ummer 1993, &=G2!a5oto $tsumi, @Poli#y 7o;ordination in an $nsettled EraA,Economic Eye, vol 14, no2,.ummer 1993, &12G3/rti#les on bot) t)e Hiraia Crou& and t)e re&ort, along it) a summary o( itsre#ommendations, a&&ear inEconomic Eye, ol 1=, no 1, .&ring 1994, &&2;32G4.ee, Tos)imasa Tsuruta, @End o( t)e -oad (or a -egulatory traditionA,Economic Eye, ol1=, no 3, /utumn 1994, &&1;20

G=Iu5io Nogu#)i, @Oismantle t)e 1940 .etu& to restru#ture t)e E#onomyA,Economic Eye,ol 1=, no 3, /utumn 1994, &&2=;29G@')y Ja&an !ust Laun#) a Oeregulation OriveA, an intervie it) Ios)io .u%u5i andao Na5atani,Economic Eye, ol 1=, no 3, 'inter 1994, &&20;2= Na5atani estimates t)at10 million Fobs ould be lost, but 11 million ne ones #reatedGTana5a, o& #it, &iiG>!u#) o( t)e E7, (or instan#e, is less t)an )a&&y it) Cerman &oer ritain, in

&arti#ular, )as a (raug)t relations)i& it) t)e E7, es&e#ially Cerman &redominan#e it)in itG9.aburo us)i, @Ja&an and 'orld E#onomyA,Economic Eye, .ummer 1993, ol 14, no 2ot) uotes &2G0T)e uote a&&ears on t)e dust Fa#5et o( Lester 7 T)uro,$ead to $ead# t(e coming!attle among Japan- Europe and 'merica, Ne Ior5, !orro, 1992 or a dis#ussion o(some o( t)e issues at sta5e see t)e debate, @T)e ig)t over 7om&etitivenessA,Foreign ',,airs,vol 3, no 4, JulyM/ugust 1994, &&1>;203, and t)e arti#le )i#) began t)e debate, PaulDrugman, @7om&etitiveness: / Oangerous bsessionA,Foreign ',,airs, vol 3, no 2,!ar#)M/&ril 1994G1Economist, /ugust , 1994, &2=G2Nigel Holloay and 7)arles .mit), @To ig)t /not)er Oay: $.;Ja&an ties survive yetanot)er trade #las)A,Far Eastern Economic Review, #tober 13, 1994, &1>G3or a dis#ussion o( t)e issues at sta5e see Jagdis) )agati and Hug) T Patri#5 G=@7ars Hold t)e DeyA,Far Eastern Economic Review, #tober 13, 1994, &20G-oger 7 /ltman, @')y Pressure To5yoA,Foreign ',,airs, vol 3, no 3, !ayMJune 1994,

&3Gn ritain, (or instan#e, Ja&an )as be#ome t)e maFor sour#e o( ne investment inindustryG>Jagdis) )agati, @.amurais no !oreA,Foreign ',,airs, vol 3, no 3, !ayMJune 1994,

&11G9ibid

G>0Economist, /ugust , 1994, &2=
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Japan and the New World Order

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