JANUARY 2019 NEBRASKA WORKFORCE TRENDS...Nutrition Therapy (LMNT) credential. This license...
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TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 JANUARY 2019 NEBRASKA WORKFORCE TRENDS JANUARY 2019 ISSUE | NEBRASKA DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Occupational Profile: Dietitians & Nutritionists Fast Facts: Work & Well-Being Where Are They Now?: Tracking Births & Deaths of Businesses Over Time Inside this Issue:
Transcript of JANUARY 2019 NEBRASKA WORKFORCE TRENDS...Nutrition Therapy (LMNT) credential. This license...
TABLE OF CONTENTS 1
JANUARY 2019
NEBRASKA WORKFORCE
TRENDSJANUARY 2019 ISSUE | NEBRASKA DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
Occupational Profile: Dietitians & Nutritionists
Fast Facts: Work & Well-Being
Where Are They Now?: Tracking Births & Deaths of Businesses Over Time
Inside this Issue:
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Contents
Photo: K15 Photos on Unsplash
CreditsCommissionerJohn H. Albin LMI Administrator Phil Baker
Editors Rachel StevensGrace Johnson Scott Hunzeker
Cover Photo by Coen van den Broek on UnsplashFeature Articles
4 Occupational Profile: Dietitians & Nutritionists
12 Where Are They Now?: Tracking Births & Deaths of BusinessesOver Time
Photo: Alexandre Godreau on Unsplash
3 Openings & Expansions
10 Map Facts: Fitness Centers in Nebraska
22 Fast Facts: Work & Well-Being
26 Employment Data
28 Economic Indicators
Helpful Links
Labor Market Publications
Previous Issues
NEworks.nebraska.gov
Reader Feedback Survey
Equal Opportunity Employer/Program. TDD: 1.800.833.7352
Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to individuals with disabilities.
Nebraska Workforce Trends is published by the Nebraska Department of Labor in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This workforce product was funded by a grant awarded by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration. The product was created by the recipient and does not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Labor. The Department of Labor makes no guarantees, warranties, or assurances of any kind, express or implied, with respect to such information, including any information on linked sites and including, but not limited to, accuracy of the information or its completeness, timeliness, usefulness, adequacy, continued availability, or ownership. This product is copyrighted by the institution that created it. Internal use by an organization and/or personal use by an individual for non-commercial purposes is permissible. All other uses require the prior authorization of the copyright owner.
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Openings & Expansions | NovemberKermit Spade, Research Analyst
Business Category Business Name Location
Banking & Finance
A.D. Rutherford
Veridian Credit Union
Omaha
Omaha
Food & Entertainment
Altitude Trampoline Park Omaha Omaha
J. Gilbert’s Wood-Fired Steaks and Seafood Omaha
Lucky Bridge Lounge Blue Springs
Health & Fitness
Family Vision Clinic Alliance
Orangetheory Fitness Omaha
ProMedCare Norfolk
Syracuse Area Health (Expansion) Syracuse
Retail/Sales
CBD American Shaman Omaha
D&R Crafts and Collectibles Beatrice
Dollar General Weeping Water
Finders Keepers Consignment West Point
Olive & Ave Norfolk
Manufacturing
Norfolk Iron & Metal (Expansion) Norfolk
Real Estate & Rental
NextHome Signature Real Estate
R&R Realty Group (Expansion)
Omaha
Omaha
Other
Glitter Grooming West Point
The Heartland Interior Design LLC Omaha
Rockhill Event Center Plattsmouth
Showtime Photography Omaha
Sources:Nebraska Department of Labor
Openings and expansions listed are a sampling of activity reported for that month. Some activity may have occurred outside the month. If you have an opening or expansion to report, contact us at [email protected].
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Byron Lefler, Research Analyst
With so many kinds of diets to choose from, many people have trouble deciding just what they should be eating. One way to get reliable advice is to consult a professional. These experts have advanced training in choosing the right foods to meet nutritional needs and maintain good health. In this article, we will dig deeper into the occupational field of dietitians and nutritionists.
Job OverviewAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Occupational Outlook Handbook, a dietitian or nutritionist is an individual who is an expert “in the use of food and nutrition to promote health and manage disease.” They also “advise people on what to eat in order to lead a healthy lifestyle or achieve specific health-related goals.” Some of the job duties a dietitian or nutritionist might perform include assessing clients’ nutrition and health needs, developing meal and nutrition plans for clients,
and contributing to food and nutritional science research. Typical work places include hospitals, outpatient care centers, nursing and residential care facilities, as well as working for the government or being self-employed. (1)
Employment & Wage DataAccording to the Nebraska Department of Labor’s Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) program, dietitians and nutritionists work in six Nebraska industries: management of companies and enterprises, ambulatory health care services, hospitals, nursing and residential care facilities, social assistance, and public administration. (2)
Graphic: Elenabsl on Shutterstock
NE Dietitians & Nutritionists: Average Hourly Wage by Industry
Occupational Profile: Dietitians & Nutritionists
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Across all industries, the statewide average hourly wage for dietitians and nutritionists as of the third quarter of 2018 was $27.85, while the average hourly entry wage was $20.46, and the average hourly experienced wage was $31.53. (2)
The industry where dietitians and nutritionists earned the highest average hourly wage was public administration at $30.97, while social assistance had the lowest average hourly wage at $23.27. In all other industries, dietitians and nutritionists had an average hourly wage between $26 and $29 per hour. (2)
According to OES program data, dietitians and nutritionists work in multiple regions throughout the state of Nebraska, including the Central region, the Mid Plains region, the Northeast region, and the Southeast region, as well as the Lincoln and Grand Island Metropolitan Statistical Areas and the Omaha Consortium. (2)
The region with the highest average hourly wage for dietitians and nutritionists as of the third quarter of 2018 was the Omaha Consortium at $30.07, while the Central region had the lowest average hourly wage at $22.79. The average hourly wage for dietitians and nutritionists in all the other regions fell between $24 and $27 per hour. (2)
Occupational Projections & Job OpeningsAccording to the Nebraska Department of Labor’s 2016-2026 long-term occupational projections, dietitians and nutritionists are classified as “H3,” meaning high wage, high demand, and high skill. H3 occupations are considered excellent career options due to their high scores in three important categories: having high projected demand in the local labor market, requiring a highly skilled workforce, and offering a high typical rate of pay. To earn an H3 designation, an occupation must fall
NE Dietitians & Nutritionists: Average Hourly Wage by Region
*Data not publishable due to OES program rules
Chart & Map Data Source: Nebraska Dept. of Labor, Occupational Employment Statistics Program (2018)
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above the regional average for all occupations in at least four of eight measured wage categories, require at least some postsecondary education and/or long-term on-the-job training to qualify, and have a high rate of demand projected in the local labor market. (3)
Over the next ten years in Nebraska, the dietitian and nutritionist occupational field is expected to grow by 14.6%. On average, there will be 54 openings per year for dietitians and nutritionists through 2026. Average annual openings are calculated by summing the total number of annual labor force exits, the total number of annual occupational transfers, and the average number of annual growth openings. Labor force exits, 23 of which are expected to occur annually, are individuals who exit the labor force (e.g., to retire or become a stay-at-home parent). Occupational transfers, 21 of which are expected each year for dietitians and nutritionists, include individuals who leave the occupation for a different career. Growth openings are openings created by increasing demand for dietitians and nutritionists, 10 of which are expected to occur annually. (4)
Education & Training RequirementsEmployment in the dietitian and nutritionist occupational field typically requires a minimum of a bachelor’s degree. According to the U.S. Department of Labor’s O*NET career exploration tool, about one-third of dietitians and nutritionists also earn a post-baccalaureate certificate,
which is "awarded for completion of an organized program of study…for people who have completed a Baccalaureate degree but do not meet the requirements of academic degrees carrying the title of Master.” About 38% of people in this occupation earn a master’s degree or higher. (5)
Some typical degree programs include dietetics, food and nutrition, clinical nutrition, public health nutrition, and food service systems management. (1)
The accrediting agency for educational programs that aim to prepare students for careers as registered dietitians is the Accreditation Council for Education in
Graphic: Oleksii Afanasiev on 123RF
Graphics: Vladimir Yudin on 123RF, OpenClipart-Vectors, & Ricinator on Pixabay
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Nutrition and Dietetics (ACEND). The ACEND website provides listings of accredited degree programs for dietitians and nutritionists in all fifty states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico.
According to ACEND, the only college or university in the state of Nebraska offering a bachelor’s degree program accredited to prepare students to become registered dietitian nutritionists is the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, which offers a Bachelor of Science in Nutrition and Dietetics. The University of Nebraska Medical Center in Omaha is the only Nebraska campus offering an accredited graduate-level degree program for registered dietitian nutritionists, graduates of which earn a Master of Medical Nutrition degree. (6)
Northeast Community College in Norfolk offers an Associate of Science degree in Pre-Dietetics, which allows graduates to transfer their credits to another institution to complete a bachelor’s degree in dietetics or a related discipline. (7)
Many other colleges and universities throughout the state of Nebraska, despite not offering degree programs accredited to prepare students for licensure as a registered dietitian, also offer classes, certificates, and degree programs that may be applicable towards the occupational field of dietitians and nutritionists. For example, coursework in nutrition science, psychology, chemistry, and biology may be relevant. (1)
Registration, Certification, & LicensingAfter having completed an accredited bachelor’s or graduate-level degree program in dietetics, the next step required to become a registered dietitian nutritionist is participation in a dietetics internship. These internships provide a minimum of 1,200 hours of supervised practice, which are usually completed over 8-24 months. (6)
In the state of Nebraska, according to ACEND, only the University of Nebraska-Lincoln and the University of Nebraska Medical Center in Omaha offer accredited post-bachelor’s or graduate-level degree dietetics internships. (6)
After completion of a dietetic internship, an aspiring dietitian must pass the Commission on Dietetics Registration credentialing examination. Passage of this exam results in certification as a registered dietitian (RD) or registered dietitian nutritionist (RDN). Once an individual has passed the exam and gained certification, she/he is then able to become licensed to practice as a dietitian in the state of his/her choice. (8)
Some people working in the dietitian and nutritionist field may also choose to obtain additional advanced or specialist certifications, such as a Certified Nutrition Specialist (CNS) credential, which requires a master’s or doctoral degree, 1,000 additional hours of supervised experience, and passage of the CNS exam. Others
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may receive certifications in areas of specialty, such as oncology nutrition, pediatric nutrition, sports dietetics, etc. (1)
In Nebraska, the Department of Health and Human Services Board of Medical Nutrition Therapy is the licensing body for the dietitian and nutritionist occupational field. The license available to registered dietitians in the state of Nebraska is a Licensed Medical Nutrition Therapy (LMNT) credential. This license authorizes a practitioner to assess and treat patients with medical conditions that require “nutritional interventions,” which may range “from diet modification to specialized nutrition support, such as determining nutrient needs for enteral and parenteral nutrition, and monitoring to evaluate patient response to such treatment.” (9)
Although many states legally require licensing for all dietitians and nutritionists, Nebraska only requires a license to practice as a medical nutrition therapist, which focuses on treating specific medical conditions through specialized nutritional support. A license is not required in the state of Nebraska for people employed in the dietitian and nutritionist occupational field whose work is limited to “general nutrition services,” including “identifying the nutritional needs of individuals and groups in relation to normal nutritional requirements” and “planning, implementing, and evaluating nutrition education programs for individuals and groups in the selection of food to meet
Additional Resources
More detailed information about this occupation can be found at www.onetonline.org. Simply type “dietitians and nutritionists” into the search box located at the top-right area of the O*NET homepage to find a wealth of information about this field.
To explore additional labor market data, such as employment totals and average wages, for dietitians and nutritionists in the state of Nebraska, visit NEworks.nebraska.gov, select “Additional Services” from below the Labor Market Information heading, then click “Occupation Profile.” From there, you can choose the type of information you want to receive (such as “Occupation Summary,” “Occupational Comparison,” “Job Requirements,” etc.) and then type “dietitians and nutritionists” into the search box. You can also use NEworks to view active job listings from around the state and obtain detailed labor market information by geographical area, industry, or occupation.
normal nutritional needs throughout the life cycle.” (1; 9)
For dietitians and nutritionists wishing to practice as medical nutrition therapists in the state of Nebraska, licenses must be renewed by September 1 of each odd numbered year. This license renewal process requires the individual to have completed 30 hours of qualified continuing education/training within the previous 24 months, unless they qualify for certain exemptions, such as a waiver for military service. (9)
The Final WordNow you know more about the job that dietitians and nutritionists perform, their wages and job outlook in the state of Nebraska, and the education and credentials necessary to work in this field. The next time you are curious about the validity of the diet and nutritional information you receive, you might consult a dietitian or nutritionist to help you figure out the facts.
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Sources:1. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occupational Outlook Handbook. Dietitians and Nutritionists. [Online] April 13, 2018. [Cited: November 28, 2018.] https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/dietitians-and-nutritionists.htm.
2. Nebraska Department of Labor, Office of Labor Market Information. Occupational Employment Statistics. Dietitians and Nutritionists. [Online] [Cited: November 28, 2018.] https://NEworks.nebraska.gov.
3. —. Workforce Information Grant Unit. High Wage, High Skill, and High Demand (H3) Occupations. [Online] [Cited: November 28, 2018.] https://neworks.nebraska.gov/gsipub/index.asp?docid=1165.
4. —. Workforce Information Grant Unit. Long-term Occupation Employment Projections. [Online] [Cited: November 28, 2018.] https://neworks.nebraska.gov/gsipub/index.asp?docid=440.
5. U.S. Department of Labor, Employment & Training Administration. O*NET OnLine. Dietitians and Nutritionists. [Online] November 13, 2018. [Cited: November 28, 2018.] https://www.onetonline.org/.
6. Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. The Accreditation Council for Education in Nutrition and Dietetics (ACEND). Accredited Programs. [Online] 2018. [Cited: November 28, 2018.] https://www.eatrightpro.org/acend.
7. U.S. Department of Education. Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System. Education Training Programs: Dietitians and Nutritionists. [Online] [Cited: November 29, 2018.] https://NEworks.nebraska.gov.
8. University of Nebraska-Lincoln, College of Education and Human Sciences. Nutrition and Health Sciences. Nutrition & Dietetics. [Online] 2018. [Cited: November 28, 2018.] https://cehs.unl.edu/nhs/programs/nutrition-dietetics/.
9. Nebraska Department of Health & Human Services, Licensure Unit. Professions & Occupations. Medical Nutrition Therapy. [Online] July 14, 2016. [Cited: November 29, 2018.] http://dhhs.ne.gov/publichealth/Pages/crlMNTHome.aspx.
Graphics: Elenabsl on Shutterstock; Oleksii Afanasiev, Vladimir Yudin, & Borodatch on 123RF; OpenClipart-Vectors, Clker-Free-Vector-Images, Ricinator, & Lisionka on Pixabay
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Douglas151
Cherry1 Holt
1
Custer0
Sioux0
Lincoln9
Sheridan0
Morrill0 Garden
0
Knox1
Keith0
Dawes0
Rock0
Brown0
Gage5
Hall16
Dundy1
Chase0
Buffalo7
Grant0
Clay0
Kimball0
York4
Frontier0
Otoe2
Dawson6
Cedar1
Platte7
Arthur0
Burt1
Perkins2
Cheyenne0
Hayes0
Blaine0
Loup0
Box Butte1
Cass5
Boone0Banner
0
Polk1
Butler1
Furnas0
Hooker0
Antelope2
Saline1
Valley0
Pierce0
Logan0
Thomas0
Lancaster88
Dixon0
Harlan1
Adams4
Thayer0
Dodge4
Phelps3
Saunders1
McPherson0
Deuel0
Howard1
Cuming0
Seward4
Greeley0
Fillmore1
Hitchcock0
Garfield0
Franklin0
Keya Paha0
Webster0
Nance1
Madison5
Wheeler0
Nuckolls3
Colfax0
Gosper0
Scotts Bluff5
Jefferson0
Wayne1
Sherman0
Red Willow3
Kearney1
Hamilton1
Pawnee0
Richardson1
Johnson0
Boyd0
Merrick1
Stanton0
Nemaha2
Thurston0
Sarpy49
Dakota2
Washington3
Number of Establishments0
1 - 10
11 - 50
51 - 100
101 - 151
Map FactsKermit Spade, Research Analyst
Fitness Centers in NebraskaNumber of Fitness Centers by County
Did you eat too much turkey over Thanksgiving? Or maybe had a little too much eggnog over Christmas? A single cup of eggnog has as much sugar as 15 packets, the same amount of calories as a 10 ounce filet mignon, and more saturated fat than a Big Mac. (1) And let’s not even start on the cookies! So if you’re looking for ways to shed a few extra pounds for that New Year’s resolution, you’re in luck.
The map to the right shows how many fitness centers operate in each Nebraska county. Statewide, there were a total of 421 fitness center establishments in Nebraska as of the first quarter of 2018. The map includes establishments categorized by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) as fitness and recreational sports centers (272 establishments), sports and recreation instruction (108 establishments), and diet and weight-reducing centers (41 establishments).
Together, these establishments employed 8,026 workers and paid over $21 million in wages during the first quarter of 2018. The overwhelming majority of Nebraska’s fitness centers were privately owned, with only 1.2% recorded as government-operated. The counties with the most fitness center establishments were Douglas, Lancaster, and Sarpy. (2)
So, if you’re looking to lose some weight after the holidays, or just want to get into better shape for the new year, there are plenty of places throughout Nebraska where you can go to go to burn off those extra calories.
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Douglas151
Cherry1 Holt
1
Custer0
Sioux0
Lincoln9
Sheridan0
Morrill0 Garden
0
Knox1
Keith0
Dawes0
Rock0
Brown0
Gage5
Hall16
Dundy1
Chase0
Buffalo7
Grant0
Clay0
Kimball0
York4
Frontier0
Otoe2
Dawson6
Cedar1
Platte7
Arthur0
Burt1
Perkins2
Cheyenne0
Hayes0
Blaine0
Loup0
Box Butte1
Cass5
Boone0Banner
0
Polk1
Butler1
Furnas0
Hooker0
Antelope2
Saline1
Valley0
Pierce0
Logan0
Thomas0
Lancaster88
Dixon0
Harlan1
Adams4
Thayer0
Dodge4
Phelps3
Saunders1
McPherson0
Deuel0
Howard1
Cuming0
Seward4
Greeley0
Fillmore1
Hitchcock0
Garfield0
Franklin0
Keya Paha0
Webster0
Nance1
Madison5
Wheeler0
Nuckolls3
Colfax0
Gosper0
Scotts Bluff5
Jefferson0
Wayne1
Sherman0
Red Willow3
Kearney1
Hamilton1
Pawnee0
Richardson1
Johnson0
Boyd0
Merrick1
Stanton0
Nemaha2
Thurston0
Sarpy49
Dakota2
Washington3
Number of Establishments0
1 - 10
11 - 50
51 - 100
101 - 151
Fitness Centers in Nebraska
Sources:1. Kimball, Molly. New Orleans Living. nola.com. [Online] The Times-Picayune, 12 24, 2010. [Cited: 12 13, 2018.] https://www.nola.com/living/index.ssf/2010/12/love_eggnog_consider_the_calor.html.
2. Nebraska Department of Labor. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. s.l. : Labor Market Information, 1st Quarter, 2018.
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Where Are They Now?: Tracking Births & Deaths of Businesses Over Time
Scott Hunzeker, Research Supervisor
A lot of time and energy goes into economic development efforts to recruit, retain, and grow existing businesses, but there isn’t always much information available as to how successful these efforts are over time. In this article, we will use data from the Nebraska Department of Labor to analyze the performance of newly established businesses over their first five years of operation, and see what patterns and insights may emerge.
Every fiscal quarter, the Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW) program publishes data that includes the number of business establishments, employment data, and total wages by industry sector and county. QCEW is part of a cooperative program between state governments and the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), created in order to compile and track industry employment and wages for all states.
As part of this collaboration, BLS maintains a longitudinal data set and publishes quarterly Business Employment Dynamics (BED) data measuring both employment growth due to expansions and new business births, as well as employment declines due to business closures and contractions. BED data provide some valuable insights into the nation’s labor market, but details at the state level are limited.
Longitudinal data tracks a set group (in this case, businesses) over time. A true longitudinal data set will resolve issues, such as changes in data definitions, to ensure consistency over time. Administrative data from the Nebraska Department of Labor (NDOL) has some limitations, discussed below, that do not make it longitudinal, but this data can be analyzed to bridge this gap and show state-level outcomes for new businesses over time. The focus of this article is businesses that started operating in the first quarter of 2013. This time period was chosen to avoid changes in employment laws and classification that occurred in prior years, but also give sufficient time to track results over time.
How Data is TrackedUpon beginning operations in Nebraska, every establishment with one or more employees must file an application for an unemployment insurance account number. Employers that are deemed liable for unemployment insurance
Background Graphics: Macrovector on 123RF
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Source: Nebraska Department of Labor, Nebraska Longitudinal Data System (November 2018)
Count of New Nebraska Employers by Year & Quarter
taxes are assigned a state-specific employer account number. A North America Industry Classification System (NAICS) code and county code are also assigned to each business, so that data can be compiled for statistical purposes. Employers are required to submit quarterly combined tax reports to the Nebraska Department of Labor until liability conditions are no longer met and the account is terminated. (1)
Once a new employer account is established, situations can occur that may sometimes limit the ability to truly track data longitudinally. Ownership changes can involve all or part of a business transferring– sometimes to an already-established account, and sometimes to a new one. A business may move, which can change its county code. New locations may be established or closed. Business activities might change, which could shift the NAICS code. Sometimes there aren’t actually any changes within a business, but more details become available or errors are fixed that cause industry or location codes to be changed.
Employment levels and wage amounts are the two primary data elements used in the administration of the unemployment insurance tax program that ensure proper information is reported and appropriate taxes are paid. Additional details such as county codes, ownership (private versus government), differentiation between single and multi-location employers, and a few others are used by the QCEW program to identify and track shifts in employment and wages.
Business Births: Identifying New EmployersWhen identifying new employers, a refined longitudinal data set may identify and exclude business acquisitions and account number transfers in order to focus on truly new establishments. For the purpose of this article, however, a new employer is identified by the year and quarter in which an employer account number is assigned. In the recent past, an average of roughly 2,000 new accounts have been established in the first quarter of each year, as shown in the chart on page 13. There have been an average of about
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Count of New Employers
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1,500 new accounts created in each of the other quarters. Higher counts in the first quarter tend to be due to a large number of employers changing their legal structure or filing other changes that result in their assignment of a new account number. (2)
As might be expected, the majority of new businesses created during the first quarter of 2013 were established in the state’s largest counties. However, nearly 25% (516) of new companies established during this time period were not assigned any county code. Of these, 289 were given a “statewide” code, meaning that the business does not have a physical location and/or may move around, such as a construction company that does road repairs throughout the state. There were also ten that had locations in more than one county, so a specific county code was not assigned. Though a business could start with multiple locations, these accounts are more likely to be established companies that received a new account number during the first quarter of 2013. For the remaining 217 businesses with no county code assigned, an address was either not available or was unconfirmed at the time the account was set up. (2)
New Employers by IndustryEconomic development activities often focus on the recruitment, retention, and growth of specific industries or occupations. Occupational data is not available in the NDOL administrative data used in this analysis, but a review of new employers by industry from the first quarter of 2013 shows why an industry-specific focus can help to reveal patterns within the data.
Of the 2,082 new employer accounts in the first quarter of 2013, 28% (584) were in the health care and social assistance
Source: Nebraska Department of Labor, Nebraska Longitudinal Data System (November 2018)
Count of New Employers by County: First Quarter 2013
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Source: Nebraska Department of Labor, Labor Longitudinal Data System (November 2018)
* Includes new employers not yet assigned an industry, as well as industries with totals too small for public release in order to protect confidentiality.
** Wages suppressed to maintain confidentiality.
sector— more than double the number of new accounts created in the next-highest sector, which was professional, scientific, and technical assistance. A major reason why there is such a high number of new accounts in health care and social assistance is that individuals receiving services in certain programs that provide assistance for elder, child, or in-home care are required to register as employers. (2)
The 113 newly established businesses in the accommodation and food services sector had the largest total employment. Together, new businesses in this sector employed nearly 2,300 workers, over 1,000 more than the health care and social assistance sector. The average employment per establishment was largest in the information sector, where each new business averaged roughly 29 workers. (2)
Hiring patterns for each new business can look significantly different, even within the same industry. One company may hire employees and become fully operational within the same quarter. Another may start with a few key staff members, but take several quarters to ramp up hiring prior to opening for business. In some industries, it is common for employers to over-hire initially, with the expectation that there will be significant short-term turnover among the new staff.
New Nebraska Employers by Industry: First Quarter 2013
North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) Sector Count of New Employers
Total Employees Total Wages
Health Care & Social Assistance 584 1,263 $5,285,282Professional, Scientific, & Technical Assistance 255 643 $6,556,323Construction 178 651 $3,517,885Wholesale Trade 152 505 $5,520,646Other Services (Except Public Administration) 149 488 $2,002,927Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, & Hunting 133 469 $3,742,677Accommodation & Food Services 113 2,298 $4,473,310Administrative & Support & Waste Management & Remediation Services 98 712 $2,621,138Retail Trade 94 559 $1,816,841Transportation & Warehousing 84 572 $3,809,166Finance & Insurance 84 556 $3,665,928Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 43 177 $2,472,117Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation 29 175 $642,376Manufacturing 23 206 $1,550,408
Information 18 519 $3,109,132Educational Services 18 60 $248,590Unknown & Unpublishable* 15 55 **Management of Companies & Enterprises 12 206 **Total 2,082 10,114 $65,822,133
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A review of wages shows one of the limitations of using new accounts to identify new businesses without removing established companies that are assigned a new employer number. Unless a new startup company’s business operations began on the first day of the quarter (January 1, 2013 for the group analyzed in this article), the sum of its wages paid during that quarter would actually total less than a full three months. Established companies that are assigned a new code, on the other hand, would already have employees on staff, who would be paid for the entirety of the quarter. Starting with the second quarter after a new employer is established, all employees could have been paid for a complete quarter, but hiring occurs throughout the quarter, so some employees’ wages are only for a partial quarter.
All together, new employers paid nearly $66 million in total wages during the first quarter of 2013. The management of companies and enterprises sector paid the most in overall total wages, and employees in this sector earned a significantly higher average wage than employees in all other sectors. Wages for management of companies and enterprises as well as the unknown or unpublishable are suppressed, as both of these categories had a higher proportion of companies that changed account numbers, rather than being newly established. Other sectors that had relatively higher average quarterly wages per
employee also tended to have more account number changes, though to a lesser degree. (2)
Business Survival RatesWithout a true longitudinal data set that ensures micro-level data is properly linked over time to allow for macro-level analysis, categorization of employment gains and losses, such as what is available through the BLS’s Business Employment Dynamics program, is not possible. However, analyzing new employers as a whole can nevertheless provide some interesting insights.
The survival rates, employment numbers, and wage totals for new employers established during the first quarter of 2013 are shown in the table on page 17.
There were 2,082 new employer accounts in the first quarter of 2013, which together employed 10,114 people and paid $65,822,133 in wages. By the second quarter of 2013, 7.5% of the new employer accounts were no longer active— a survival rate of 92.5% after one quarter. Among the businesses that did survive, overall employment increased by nearly 12%. Total wages increased only slightly, however, and the average quarterly pay per person decreased by nearly $500. This observed decrease in per-person wages can be explained by the large influx of new workers who would not have received a full quarter’s pay, as is explained above. (2)
Graphic: elenabs on 123RF
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Over time, the number of new accounts created during the first quarter of 2013 that have remained active has slowly declined throughout each quarter. For this article, the basis for identifying new employers was a new account number; differentiation was not made between new startups and existing businesses that received new account numbers. The same caveat applies to employers that become inactive— some may be due to the business ceasing operations, but others could have been transferred to a new account number.
A percentage of accounts that are deactivated, especially within the first several quarters, may also have been companies intended to be active only for a short time. For example, a construction company based in another state and doing work in Nebraska would need to apply for an employer account number, regardless of the length of the project.
Survival Rate, Employment, & Wages of New Employers Established During First Quarter 2013
Year, Quarter Employers Remaining Total
Employees Total Wages Survival Rate
Total Employment Percentage Change:
Q1 2013 to Current Quarter
2013, 1 2,082 10,114 $65,822,133 - -
2013, 2 1,926 11,320 $68,193,673 92.5% 11.9%
2013, 3 1,763 12,165 $79,623,189 84.7% 20.3%
2013, 4 1,667 11,808 $81,756,564 80.1% 16.7%
2014, 1 1,542 10,932 $80,014,545 74.1% 8.1%
2014, 2 1,471 11,446 $76,238,430 70.7% 13.2%
2014, 3 1,420 11,802 $75,212,367 68.2% 16.7%
2014, 4 1,368 11,241 $89,666,764 65.7% 11.1%
2015, 1 1,306 10,742 $77,373,100 62.7% 6.2%
2015, 2 1,260 11,240 $89,833,842 60.5% 11.1%
2015, 3 1,225 11,334 $81,465,367 58.8% 12.1%
2015, 4 1,202 11,186 $89,282,371 57.7% 10.6%
2016, 1 1,132 10,487 $77,280,970 54.4% 3.7%
2016, 2 1,110 10,674 $89,424,992 53.3% 5.5%
2016, 3 1,067 10,723 $83,920,545 51.2% 6.0%
2016, 4 1,047 10,497 $85,571,794 50.3% 3.8%
2017, 1 1,002 10,326 $85,949,396 48.1% 2.1%
2017, 2 978 10,657 $86,347,670 47.0% 5.4%
2017, 3 951 10,362 $77,928,784 45.7% 2.5%
2017, 4 929 10,017 $84,677,111 44.6% -1.0%
Source: Nebraska Department of Labor, Nebraska Longitudinal Data System (November 2018)
18
Employment Over TimeFor the cohort of employers used in this analysis, total employment was the highest in the third quarter after the accounts were established. During the third quarter of 2013, employment was up over 20% from the initial first-quarter employment totals. As noted earlier, this may have been at least partly due to some companies initially hiring more people than will be needed long-term, in anticipation of early turnover. Total employment ebbed and flowed throughout the five years after the accounts were established. With the exception of the very last quarter, total employment has been consistently higher during each quarter than the initial level reported. (2)
Initially, new employers averaged just under 5 employees. By the end of the fifth year, accounts that were still active averaged nearly 11 employees. While overall total employment eventually returned to the level at which it started, companies that survived for five years, on average, more than doubled in size. (2)
Total Wages by QuarterWage totals can vary from quarter to quarter due to seasonal changes in total hours worked (which may or may not correspond to different staffing levels), bonuses and other payouts, and many other factors. The total wages paid by new employers in the first (and most likely second) quarter after an account is set up are typically artificially low because in most cases they do not represent an entire quarter. Thus, the large jump in total wages observed between the second and third quarters of 2013 is not unexpected.
For the group of employers analyzed for this article, the quarter with the highest total wages was the businesses’ tenth quarter of operation, Q2 2015, at just under $90 million. Several other quarterly wage totals were close to this high figure, as well. (2)
Average wages per employee vary throughout each year, with higher wages typically occurring during the later quarters. Per-employee pay was nearly $8,500 in the
fourth quarter of 2017, which was $1,500 more per person, per quarter than employers paid during the fourth quarter of 2013. Total wages paid out by employers in the fourth quarter of 2017 were just over double what was paid during the fourth quarter of 2013.
Where Are They Now?Determining the industries in which new employers fared the best depends on what metric is used. The educational services and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting sectors had the highest employer survival rates at 77.8% and 79.7%, respectively. Not including the unknown and unpublishable employers, health care and social assistance had the lowest employer survival at 28.1%. A large reason for this is the accounts mentioned earlier that are set up for services for the elderly and disabled. Despite the large drop in employer accounts, employment in the health care and social assistance sector was virtually unchanged over the five years examined. (2)
A case could easily be made that the manufacturing sector had the best overall performance among first-quarter 2013 new employers. It began with 23 employers and 206 employees. By the end of 2017, 70% of employer accounts were still active, and employment had increased more than three-fold, to 638. (2)
Graphic: Andrey Ikryannikov on 123RF
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JANUARY 2019
New Employers by Industry: First Quarter 2013
North America Industry Classification System (NAICS) Sector
New Employers:
Q1 2013
Total Employees:
Q1 2013
Survivors: Q4 2017
Total Employees:
Q4 2017
Health Care & Social Assistance 584 1,263 164 1,244
Professional, Scientific, & Technical Assistance 255 643 207 650
Construction 178 651 97 711
Wholesale Trade 152 505 72 549
Other Services (Except Public Administration) 149 488 58 530
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, & Hunting 133 469 106 496
Accommodation & Food Services 113 2,298 55 2,160
Administrative & Support & Waste Management & Remediation Services 98 712 41 386
Retail Trade 94 559 57 773
Transportation & Warehousing 84 572 41 386
Finance & Insurance 84 556 44 256
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 43 177 26 152
Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation 29 175 14 140
Manufacturing 23 206 16 638
Information 18 519 8 25
Educational Services 18 60 14 109
Unknown & Unpublishable* 15 55 3 9
Management of Companies & Enterprises 12 206 6 204
Total 2,082 10,114 29 10,017
Source: Nebraska Department of Labor, Labor Longitudinal Data System (Noveber 2018)
* Includes new employers not yet assigned an industry, as well as industries with totals too small for public release in order to protect confidentiality.
20
On the other hand, the information sector had the worst overall performance among first-quarter 2013 new employers. This sector began with 18 employers and 519 employees. At the end of five years, only eight employer accounts were still active and employment had the largest drop (-494) to just 25 individuals. (2)
Overall, the number of sectors that gained employment and those that lost employment were virtually equal. With the decline in employer accounts over time, all sectors except information and finance and insurance saw an increase in the average number of employees per business. (2)
The Other Side of the Equation: Business DeathsIsolating a group of new employers and tracking them over time gives a glimpse into the business lifecycle and survival rates. Businesses from a specific cohort that don’t survive from quarter to quarter can be measured, but measuring business deaths from an undefined group is much more problematic.
Business deaths can be difficult to track, as time of death is not always apparent. Two quarters of information must be reviewed to determine which employer accounts were active the prior quarter, but are no longer
reporting for the current quarter. Some employers drop quickly and are closed immediately, but others have multiple quarters with zero employment reported and are eventually closed administratively. Additionally, much like business births, some accounts cease to exist because they are transferred to a new account number – something that would require a true longitudinal file to monitor with complete accuracy.
Graphic: Macrovector on 123RF
TABLE OF CONTENTS 21
JANUARY 2019
The Final WordNew businesses open and close all the time. While the employment and wages from newly established employer accounts may not represent a major share of the state’s total, these companies are nevertheless important to the continued growth of Nebraska’s economy. It is important for those involved with economic development efforts to understand the characteristics not only of businesses that succeed and grow, but also of those companies that don’t survive.
Sources:1. Nebraska Department of Labor. Unemployment Insurance Tax. Employer Guides. [Online] [Cited: November 28, 2018.] https://dol.nebraska.gov/UITax/Home.
2. —. Longitudinal Data System. November 2018.
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22
Fast FactsScott Ferguson, Research Analyst
AED
Graphics: Artisticco LLC, Macrovector, & A7880S on 123RF
Work & Well-Being
The percentage of workplaces in Nebraska where employees have permanent, onsite access to blood pressure monitors. (2) According to the American Heart Association, 27.1% of adults in Nebraska have been diagnosed with high blood pressure, and 30% of those with high blood pressure remain unaware of it. (4)
15%
The percentage of Nebraska worksites that offer CPR/basic life support training. (2) Onsite application of automated external defibrillators (AEDs) can raise cardiac arrest survival rates to 60% compared to waiting for emergency medical personnel alone (5-7%). (3)
34%
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JANUARY 2019
The number of Americans age 16 and over who volunteered for an organization at least once between September 2014 and September 2015. People between the ages of 35 and 44 were the demographic most likely to volunteer, at 28.9%. Volunteers age 65 and over put in the most hours individually, with Americans in this age group contributing a median of 94 hours per year. (7) According to a study by the American Psychological Association, volunteering has been linked to lower blood pressure and increased psychological well-being in people age 50 and above. (8)
62.6 million
The percentage of Nebraskans who walk (2.8%) or bike (0.5%) to work. (6)
For an in-depth analysis of commuting patterns in Nebraska, see the November 2018 issue of Nebraska Workforce Trends.
3.3%
The number of fatal work injuries that occurred in Nebraska in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This was a 42% decrease from 2016, during which 60 fatal workplace injuries took place in Nebraska. (5)
35
24
Nature Trail
Walking path
public park
Fresh Produce
Prices:
Red Onions........$1.50
White Onions.....$1.00
Apples.................$0.75
Carrots................$1.00
Eggplant............$2.00
Corn....................$1.00
The percentage of Nebraskans who reported consuming fruit less than once daily. Nearly 25% reported eating vegetables less than once per day. (9) According to the US Department of Agriculture, adults should try to consume 1.5 to 2 cups of fruit and 2 to 3 cups of vegetables each day. (10)
41.1%
The percentage of Nebraska worksites that have at least one designated walking route for employees to use. (2)
16%
The percentage of the U.S. population age 15 and over that participates in sports, exercise, or recreation on any given day, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ 2017 American Time Use Survey. (12)
19%
The percentage of Nebraskans who live within a half a mile of a park. This is well above the national average of 39.2%, but trails Hawaii, which leads the nation with 67.2%. Residents of Mississippi (10.9%) and West Virginia (9.0%) were the Americans least likely to live within a half mile of a park. (11)
50.1%
Graphics: Alexdndz, borodatch, avian, A7880S, elenabs, macrovector, keko-ka, & shiyiershier on 123RF
TABLE OF CONTENTS 25
JANUARY 2019
Nature Trail
Walking path
public park
Fresh Produce
Prices:
Red Onions........$1.50
White Onions.....$1.00
Apples.................$0.75
Carrots................$1.00
Eggplant............$2.00
Corn....................$1.00
Sources:1. Society for Human Resource Management. 2017 Employee Ben-
efits. [Online] June 19, 2017. [Cited: December 17, 2018.] https://www.shrm.org/hr-today/trends-and-forecasting/research-and-surveys/pages/2017-employee-benefits.aspx.
2. 2016 Nebraska Worksite Wellness Survey Report. [Online] March 2017. [Cited: December 17, 2018.] http://dhhs.ne.gov/Reports/Worksite%20Wellness%20Survey%202016.pdf.
3. Occupational Safety & Health Administration. Saving Sudden Cardiac Arrest Victims in the Workplace. OSHA 3185-09N 2003. [Online] 2003. [Cited: December 17, 2018.] https://www.osha.gov/Publications/3185.html.
4. Nebraksa Department of Health & Human Services. Chronic Disease in Nebraska.[Online] 2011. [Cited: December 18, 2018.] http://dhhs.ne.gov/Documents/Chronic-Disease-Surveillance-Re-port-FINAL-03-01-11.pdf.
5. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Fatal occupational injuries in Nebraska. [Online] December 18, 2018. [Cited: December 18, 2018.] https://www.bls.gov/iif/oshwc/cfoi/tgs/2017/iiffw31.htm.
6. U.S. Census Bureau. 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates. Tables B01003, B08103, B08121, B08124, B08126, S0801, S0802. [Online] [Cited: October 1, 2018.] American FactFinder.
7. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Volunteering in the United States News Release. [Online] February 25, 2016. [Cited: December 17, 2018.] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/volun_02252016.htm.
8. Harvard Medical School. Harvard Health Blog. [Online] Octo-ber 29, 2015. [Cited: December 18, 2018.] https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/volunteering-may-be-good-for-body-and-mind-201306266428.
9. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Obesity: Data, Trends and Maps. [Online] [Cited: December 17, 2018.] https://nccd.cdc.gov/dnpao_dtm/rdPage.aspx?rdReport=DNPAO_DTM.ExploreByLocation&rdRequestFor-warding=Form.
10. United States Department of Agriculture. What is MyPlate? ChooseMyPlate.gov. [Online] December 14, 2018. [Cited: Decem-ber 17, 2018.] https://www.choosemyplate.gov/MyPlate.
11. National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Pro-motion. 2014 State Indicator Report on Physical Activity. [Online] July 2014. [Cited: December 17, 2018.] https://www.cdc.gov/physicalactivity/downloads/PA_State_Indicator_Report_2014.pdf.
12. Bureau of Labor Statistics. American Time Use Survey. [Online] December 17, 2018. [Cited: December 17, 2018.] https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/TUU30105AA01014521.
13. Pew Research Center. FactTank. How far Americans live from the closest hospital differs by community type. [Online] December 12, 2018. [Cited: December 17, 2018.] http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/12/12/how-far-americans-live-from-the-closest-hospital-differs-by-community-type/.
14. Nebraska Games and Parks Commission. Cowboy Trail. [Online] [Cited: December 17, 2018.] http://outdoornebraska.gov/cowbo-ytrail/.
The average number of miles rural Americans live from the nearest hospital, according to a Pew Research Center survey. This compares to 4.4 miles for urban residents. The average travel time by car is 17 minutes for rural Americans, and 10.4 minutes for those living in urban communities. (13)
10.5
The number of miles of abandoned railways that have been converted into the Cowboy Recreation & Nature Trail across northern Nebraska. The trail currently spans from Norfolk to Valentine, and could potentially be expanded to Chadron, which would make it the largest “rails-to-trails” project in the United States. (14)
192
26
Employment Data | NovemberByron Lefler, Research Analyst
November Unemployment Rates by CountyNot seasonally adjusted
1.8Cherry
Holt2.0
1.7Custer
Sioux2.5
2.5Lincoln
1.9Sheridan
2.2Morrill
1.8Garden
Knox2.0
Keith2.7
Dawes2.1
Rock2.4
Brown2.6
Gage2.4
Hall2.7
Dundy2.2
Chase1.7
2.0Buffalo
Grant3.5
Clay2.3
2.5Kimball
York2.0
2.2Frontier
Otoe2.2
2.3Dawson
Cedar2.1
Platte2.3
Arthur5.3
Burt3.0
1.6Perkins
2.5Cheyenne
Hayes2.0
Blaine5.5
Loup3.7
2.5Box Butte
Cass2.4
Boone2.0
3.7Banner
Polk1.9 1.8
Butler
2.3Furnas
2.8Hooker
1.9Antelope
2.4Saline
2.4Valley
Pierce2.1
Logan3.5
Thomas2.8
2.2Lancaster
Dixon2.9
Harlan2.0
Adams2.4
1.8Thayer
Dodge2.2
Phelps2.1
2.2Saunders
2.2McPherson
Deuel2.2
2.1Howard
Cuming2.1
Seward2.2
2.6Greeley
2.3Fillmore
2.9Hitchcock
1.9Garfield
3.0Franklin
2.5Keya Paha
2.4Webster
Nance2.3
2.0Madison
2.9Wheeler
2.1Nuckolls
Colfax2.1
2.3Gosper
3.0Scotts Bluff
2.2Jefferson
Wayne2.1
2.5Sherman
1.7Red Willow
1.6Kearney
2.3Hamilton
Pawnee1.8 2.6
Richardson
2.8Johnson
2.7Douglas
Boyd2.0
2.5Merrick
1.7Stanton
Nemaha3.2
4.1Thurston
Sarpy2.2
Dakota2.8
2.3Washington
1.8Cherry
Holt2.0
1.7Custer
Sioux2.5
2.5Lincoln
1.9Sheridan
2.2Morrill
1.8Garden
Knox2.0
Keith2.7
Dawes2.1
Rock2.4
Brown2.6
Gage2.4
Hall2.7
Dundy2.2
Chase1.7
2.0Buffalo
Grant3.5
Clay2.3
2.5Kimball
York2.0
2.2Frontier
Otoe2.2
2.3Dawson
Cedar2.1
Platte2.3
Arthur5.3
Burt3.0
1.6Perkins
2.5Cheyenne
Hayes2.0
Blaine5.5
Loup3.7
2.5Box Butte
Cass2.4
Boone2.0
3.7Banner
Polk1.9 1.8
Butler
2.3Furnas
2.8Hooker
1.9Antelope
2.4Saline
2.4Valley
Pierce2.1
Logan3.5
Thomas2.8
2.2Lancaster
Dixon2.9
Harlan2.0
Adams2.4
1.8Thayer
Dodge2.2
Phelps2.1
2.2Saunders
2.2McPherson
Deuel2.2
2.1Howard
Cuming2.1
Seward2.2
2.6Greeley
2.3Fillmore
2.9Hitchcock
1.9Garfield
3.0Franklin
2.5Keya Paha
2.4Webster
Nance2.3
2.0Madison
2.9Wheeler
2.1Nuckolls
Colfax2.1
2.3Gosper
3.0Scotts Bluff
2.2Jefferson
Wayne2.1
2.5Sherman
1.7Red Willow
1.6Kearney
2.3Hamilton
Pawnee1.8 2.6
Richardson
2.8Johnson
2.7Douglas
Boyd2.0
2.5Merrick
1.7Stanton
Nemaha3.2
4.1Thurston
Sarpy2.2
Dakota2.8
2.3Washington
County Rates1.6 - 1.9
2.0 - 2.4
2.5 - 3.0
3.1 - 4.1
4.2 - 5.5
TABLE OF CONTENTS 27
JANUARY 2019
NEBRASKANovember Non-farm Total Employment: 1,039,938Manufacturing: 102,635
Nebraska (smoothed seasonally adjusted)November Unemployment Rate: 2.8%Change (OTM): 0.0Change (OTY): -0.1
Economic Regions (not seasonally adjusted)Central: 2.1%Mid Plains: 2.3%Northeast: 2.2%Panhandle: 2.6%Sandhills: 2.2%Southeast: 2.3%
OMAHA MSA (not seasonally adjusted)November Unemployment Rate: 2.5%November Total Non-Farm: 514,496Manufacturing: 36,235
Largest OTM Increases (Private)Trade, Transportation & Utilities: 3,652 (3.8%)Professional & Business Services: 477 (0.7%)
Largest OTY Increases (Private)Mining and Construction: 2,875 (10.3%)Manufacturing: 2,213 (6.5%)
LINCOLN MSA (not seasonally adjusted) November Unemployment Rate: 2.2%November Total Non-Farm: 193,925Manufacturing: 13,316
Largest OTM Increases (Private)Trade, Transportation, Utilities: 671 (2.0%)Education and Health Services: 585 (2.0%)
Largest OTY Increases (Private)Education and Health Services: 1,459 (5.1%)Mining and Construction: 550 (5.8%)
GRAND ISLAND MSA (not seasonally adjusted) November Unemployment Rate: 2.6%November Total Non-Farm: 42,789Change (OTM): -157 (-0.4%)Change (OTY): 345 (0.8%)
Sources: 1. Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics Program
2. Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program
1.8Cherry
Holt2.0
1.7Custer
Sioux2.5
2.5Lincoln
1.9Sheridan
2.2Morrill
1.8Garden
Knox2.0
Keith2.7
Dawes2.1
Rock2.4
Brown2.6
Gage2.4
Hall2.7
Dundy2.2
Chase1.7
2.0Buffalo
Grant3.5
Clay2.3
2.5Kimball
York2.0
2.2Frontier
Otoe2.2
2.3Dawson
Cedar2.1
Platte2.3
Arthur5.3
Burt3.0
1.6Perkins
2.5Cheyenne
Hayes2.0
Blaine5.5
Loup3.7
2.5Box Butte
Cass2.4
Boone2.0
3.7Banner
Polk1.9 1.8
Butler
2.3Furnas
2.8Hooker
1.9Antelope
2.4Saline
2.4Valley
Pierce2.1
Logan3.5
Thomas2.8
2.2Lancaster
Dixon2.9
Harlan2.0
Adams2.4
1.8Thayer
Dodge2.2
Phelps2.1
2.2Saunders
2.2McPherson
Deuel2.2
2.1Howard
Cuming2.1
Seward2.2
2.6Greeley
2.3Fillmore
2.9Hitchcock
1.9Garfield
3.0Franklin
2.5Keya Paha
2.4Webster
Nance2.3
2.0Madison
2.9Wheeler
2.1Nuckolls
Colfax2.1
2.3Gosper
3.0Scotts Bluff
2.2Jefferson
Wayne2.1
2.5Sherman
1.7Red Willow
1.6Kearney
2.3Hamilton
Pawnee1.8 2.6
Richardson
2.8Johnson
2.7Douglas
Boyd2.0
2.5Merrick
1.7Stanton
Nemaha3.2
4.1Thurston
Sarpy2.2
Dakota2.8
2.3Washington
28
Economic Indicators Initial Unemployment ClaimsKermit Spade, Research Analyst
Initial Unemployment ClaimsIn each new issue of Trends, the Economic Indicators section features a chart or graph focused on one of the economic indicators listed in the table on the next page. This month, we are focusing on Initial Unemployment Claims.
According to the Conference Board "The number of new claims filed for unemployment insurance are typically more sensitive than either total employment or unemployment to overall business conditions, and this series tends to lead the business cycle. It is inverted when included in the leading index; the signs of the month-to-month changes are reversed, because initial claims increase when employment conditions worsen (i.e., layoffs rise and new hirings fall)." (1).
Although initial claims are considered a leading economic indicator, in the chart above, the data series appears to lag the recession by about six months. This is because the grey recession bar marks the duration of the national recession, while the time series tracks initial claims in Nebraska, and the recession hit Nebraska much later than it did the rest of the country. Since its peak in December of 2009, the 12-month moving average of initial claims in Nebraska has been decreasing. The 12-month moving average trendline is used to remove seasonality, so that general trends in employment can be observed.
Sources: 1. The Conference Board. Description of Components. conference-board.org. [Online] 7 14, 2016. [Cited: 7 14, 2016.] https://www.conference-board.org/
data/bci/index.cfm?id=2160.
Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims in Nebraska [NEICLAIMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEICLAIMS, December 12, 2018.
TABLE OF CONTENTS 29
JANUARY 2019
Change Over Last Quarter/MonthMetric Current Time
PeriodUnited States
Midwest Region
Nebraska
Average Weekly Manufacturing Hours November, 2018 -0.1 -0.2*
Initial Unemployment Claims November, 2018 +3.0% +0.3%
Value of Manufacturers' New Orders for Consumer Goods October, 2018 -0.5%
ISM Manufacturing: New Orders Index© November 2018 +8.2%
Value of Manufacturers' New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft October, 2018 +/-0.0%
S&P 500© November, 2018 2.2%
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate November, 2018 0.9%
University of Michigan, Consumer Sentiment Index December, 2018 +/-0.0%
Consumer Price Index, not seasonally adjusted November, 2018 -0.3% -0.4%
Employment Cost Index 3rd Quarter, 2018 +0.8%
Producer Price Index: All Commodities November, 2018 -1.4%
Unemployment Rate, seasonally adjusted November 2018 +/-0.0% +/-0.0%* +/-0.0%*
Real GDP, billions of chained 2009 dollars 3rd Quarter, 2018 +3.5%
Net Taxable Sales September, 2018 -2.8%
Barrel of Crude Oil, WTI-Cushing, Spot Price November, 2018 -$13.79
Current Account Balance (millions of dollars) 2nd Quarter, 2018 +6.9%
Leading Economic Index October, 2018 +8.5% -7.3%
*Data lagged one monthSources:1. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Customized Tables; State and Area Employment, Hours and Earnings. Bureau of Labor Statistics. [Online] http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv?sm.
2. US. Employment and Training Administration. 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/IC4WSA.
3. —. Initial Claims in Nebraska. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NEICLAIMS.
4. US. Bureau of the Census. Value of Manufacturers' New Orders for Consumer Goods Industries. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ACOGNO.
5. Institute for Supply Management. ISM Manufacturing: New Orders Index©. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NAPMNOI.
6. US. Bureau of the Census. Manufacturers' New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NEWORDER.
7. S&P Dow Jones Indicies LLC. S&P 500©. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SP500.
8. Federal Reserve Bank of Philidelphia. Leading Index for the United States. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USSLIND.
9. —. Leading Index for Nebraska. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NESLIND.
10. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate. [Online] https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/T10YFF.
11. Survey Research Center, University of Michigan. Survey of Consumers. University of Michigan. [Online] http://www.press.sca.isr.umich.edu/press/press_release.
12. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCNS.
13. —. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All items in Midwest urban. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CUUR0200SA0.
14. —. Employment Cost Index. Customized Tables. [Online] http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv?ci.
15. —. Producer Price Index for All Commodities. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PPIACO.
16. —. Civilian Unemployment Rate. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE.
17. —. Unemployment Rate in Midwest Census Region. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CMWRUR.
18. —. Unemployment Rate in Nebraska. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NEUR.
19. U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real Gross Domestic Product. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDPC1.
20. Nebraska Department of Revenue. Non-Motor Vehicle Sales Tax Collections. Nebraska Department of Revenue. [Online] http://www.revenue.nebraska.gov/research/net_taxable_sales/sales_14/2014_non-mv.html.
21. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MCOILWTICO.
22. U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Balance of Payments on the Current Account. Federal Reserve Economic Data. [Online] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/IEABC.
Nebraska Department of LaborLabor Market Information
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