January 2010 Colorado's Political Temperature Survey Results

8/14/2019 January 2010 Colorado's Political Temperature Survey Results

1/7

Governor: Dan Maes Narrowly Wins Support Over GOP RivalScott McInnis Seen as Stronger Republican Candidate by 3-to-1 Margin

In the November survey, then-candidate Josh Penry won 46% of the vote. Excluding don'tknow/not applicable this time, Dan Maes jumped from 14% to 46%, while Scott McInnis rose from25% to 41%.

1.00 = Strong Democratic victory; 7.00 = Strong Republican victory

The collective wisdom of survey-takers roughly predicts a 3-point Scott McInnis win over John Hickenlooper,and a 2-point Dan Maes win over Hickenlooper. According to their predictions, potential candidate AndrewRomanoff would fare less well against both Republican hopefuls. Further, the statement Bill Ritter'sannouncement that he will not seek re-election improves the Democrats' chances of retaining the Coloradogovernor's mansion received a rating of3.71, indicating mixed opinion leaning slightly towarddisagreement.

Survey of Colorado's Political Temperature Results: January 2010 Page 1

Romanoff vs. McInnis

Romanoff vs. Maes

Romanoff vs. "Other GOP"

Hickenlooper vs. McInnis

Hickenlooper vs. Maes

Hickenlooper vs. "Other GOP"

"Other DEM" vs. McInnis

"Other DEM" vs. Maes

"Other DEM" vs. "Other GOP"

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00

Governor of Colorado. Who will win in


2/7

U.S. Senate: Ken Buck Keeps Healthy Lead Over Jane NortonMixed Results on Strongest Candidate, Cleve Tidwell Leapfrogs Tom Wiens into 3rd

Excluding don't know/NA votes for accurate comparison, Ken Buck's 46-25 lead over Jane Nortoninched up to 49-27. Cleve Tidwell rose from 4% to 11%, while Tom Wiens fell from 9% to 7%.

Jane Norton's 45-33 advantage over Ken Buck narrowed to an adjusted 46-38 (minus don'tknow).

Despite giving Jane Norton a 46-38 advantage as the strongest candidate in the GOP field, the collectivewisdom of survey-takers gives Ken Buck a tiny edge in head-to-head matchups against the incumbentboth are foreseen as beating Michael Bennet by about 6 points.


Bennet vs. Buck

Bennet vs. Norton

Bennet vs. Wiens

Bennet vs. Tidwell

Bennet vs. "Other GOP"

4.60 4.80 5.00 5.20 5.40 5.60 5.80

the appointed Senator M ichael Bennet and the prospective Republican challengers Ken Buck, Jane Norto n, Tom Wiens, Cleve


3/7

4th Congressional: Cory Gardner Distances Himself from the Pack

Excluding the don't know votes for closest comparison, Cory Gardner grew his lead over TomLucero from 49-21 in November to 61-19. Diggs Brown's share grew from 3% to 11%, with newlyadded Dean Madere picking up 3%. The Other vote shrank dramatically.

The collective wisdom of survey-takers credits Cory Gardner with a probable 8-point victory over incumbentBetsy Markey. Other competitors are forecast to beat Markey by 5 or 6 points.


Markey vs. Lucero

Markey vs. Gardner

Markey vs. Brown

Markey vs. Madere

Markey vs. "Other GOP"

5.00 5.20 5.40 5.60 5.80 6.00 6.20

ep. Betsy Markey and the prospective Republican candidates Tom Lucero, Cory Gardner, Diggs Brown, Dean Madere, and "Other GOP"? Please indicate the LIKELIHO

Answer Options

Diggs Brown 4.5% 31

Tom Lucero 7.9% 54

Cory Gardner 37.5% 256

Dean Madere 0.9% 6

Other/None of the Above 4.7% 32

Don't Know/Not Applicable 44.5% 304answered question 683

skipped question 31

Right now, I believe the strongest (most likely to win) GOP candidate for the 4tCongressional District in the general election in November 2010 is _____.

ResponsePercent

ResponseCount


4/7

7th Congressional: Ryan Frazier Cleans Up GOP Field

Minus don't know votes, Ryan Frazier wins 78%; his next closest rival Jimmy Lakey garners 5%.

The collective wisdom of survey-takers predicts a 6-point Ryan Frazier win over Ed Perlmutter. OtherRepublican contenders are seen as roughly 4-point favorites.


Answer Options

Ryan Frazier 34.7% 237

Lang Sias 1.9% 13

Jimmy Lakey 1.3% 9

Mike Sheely 1.6% 11

Michael Deming 1.0% 7

Other/None of the Above 5.0% 34

Don't Know/Not Applicable 54.5% 372answered question 683

skipped question 31

Right now, I believe the strongest (most likely to win) GOP candidate for the 7thCongressional District in the general election in November 2010 is _____.

ResponsePercent

ResponseCount

Perlmutter vs. Sias

Perlmutter vs. Frazier

Perlmutter vs. Lakey

Perlmutter vs. Sheely

Perlmutter vs. Deming

Perlmutter vs. "Other GOP"

5.00 5.10 5.20 5.30 5.40 5.50 5.60 5.70 5.80 5.90

up between the incumbent Rep. Ed Perlmutter and the prospective Republican candidates Lang Sias, Ryan Frazier, Jimmy Lakey, and


5/7

State Treasurer: Ament Stays Atop Voters' Preference

Of those who expressed an opinion, nearly half cast a vote for J.J. Ament who maintained asizable lead over the GOP field. After announcing his candidacy, Ali Hasan has drawn closer toWalker Stapleton (from a 17%-4% spread to a 22%-18% spread).

Survey-takers' collect wisdom rates J.J. Ament a 7-point winner over incumbent Cary Kennedy. WalkerStapleton is predicted to have a 6-point victory, while Ali Hasan trails the pack as a projected 4-point winner.

^^^^^

Other Race Predictions: Secretary of State and Attorney General

These predictions translate to a 7-point Scott Gessler SOS win and a 9-point John Suthers AG re-election.


Kennedy vs. Ament

Kennedy vs. Stapleton

Kennedy vs. Hasan

Kennedy vs. "Other GOP"

5.00 5.20 5.40 5.60 5.80 6.00 6.20

the incumbent Treasurer Cary Kennedy and the prospective Republican candidates J.J. Ament, Walker Stapleton, Ali Hasan and "Other GO

Suthers vs. "Other DEM"

0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.00

in a head- to-head matchup between the incumbent Attorney General John Suthersand "Other DEM"? Please indicate the LIKELIH

Buescher vs. Gessler

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00

nieBuescherandtheprospectiveRepublicanc andidateScottGessler? Please indicatethe LIKELIH


6/7

Bloggers Take Colorados Political TemperatureJanuary 2010 Survey

Results and Summary AnalysisMichael Sandoval, Slapstick Politics (http://slapstickpolitics.blogspot.com), [email protected]

Ben DeGrow, Mount Virtus (http://bendegrow.com), [email protected] assistance from Mary Ila Macfarlane

Content OverviewOpen online from Thursday, January 7, 8:00 AM MST, to Friday, January 15, 5:00 PM MST, thesurvey gauged opinion on prominent policy issues, philosophy, and political dynamics; as well ascandidate preference and assessment questions for five 2010 Colorado Republican primary racesand seven head-to-head matchups.

Participant DemographicsThe survey was not intended to measure a representative cross-section of Colorado voters andthus has no direct predictive power on upcoming primary elections. It was however intendedprimarily for Right-leaning Colorado political activists to express their beliefs and preferences. The

survey was controlled to prevent multiple responses from a single IP address.

The survey included 623 self-identifying participants as follows (results may not add up to 100.0%,due to rounding), not all of whom completed the entire survey:Registered Colorado Voters: Yes (97.3%), No (2.4%); I don't know (0.3%).Political Party: Republican (81.7%); Unaffiliated (12.2%); Libertarian (3.5%); Democrat (1.8%);Other (0.3%).Gender: Male (65.0%); Female (35.0%).Age: 18-29 (11.6%); 30-39 (18.9%); 40-49 (21.2%); 50-59 (22.5%); 60-69 (18.6%); 70 or older(7.2%).Region:The 7 county Denver Metro Area (51.7%); The Front Range/I-25 corridor other than theDenver Metro Area (32.4%); Eastern Plains (5.0%); Western Slope (3.9%); Other (3.5%); I-70/SkiCountry (2.2%); San Luis Valley (0.8%); Four Corners (0.5%).

Congressional District: 1

st

(8.2%); 2

nd

(11.4%); 3

rd

(8.2%); 4

th

(24.2%); 5

th

(9.0%); 6

th

(20.1%); 7

th

(13.5%).Race: White (88.6%); Hispanic or Latino (4.7%); Other/Multiple Race (4.7%); African American(0.8%); American Indian (0.5%); Asian American (0.5%).Marital Status: Married (73.7%); SingleNever Married (15.1%); Divorced (9.0%); Widowed(2.2%).Highest Education: Less than high school (0.2%); High school/GED (4.5%); Some college(19.4%); 2-year college (7.9%); 4-year college (30.2%); Some graduate school (10.3%); Mastersdegree (19.6%); Doctoral/professional degree (8.0%).Political Affiliation (1=Liberal; 7=Conservative): 7 (48.0%); 6 (27.4%); 5 (16.4%); 4 (5.6%); 3(1.3%); 2 (0.6%); 1 (0.6%).

Total Conservative: 91.8% Total Liberal:2.5%On a scale of 1 to 7 (1 = More Government, 7 = Less Government), please indicate yourpreference for, on balance, solutions currently facing Colorado and the United States: 7(69.7%); 6 (18.5%); 5 (6.6%); 4 (2.2%); 3 (1.4%); 2 (0.8%); 1 (0.8%).

Total Less Government: 94.8% Total More Government: 3.0%



7/7

Opinion QuestionsParticipants were asked to rate their relative agreement with a series of issue statements on prominent policyissues, philosophy, and political dynamics, based on a 7-point Likert scale (1 = Strongly disagree; 2 =Disagree; 3 = Somewhat Disagree; 4 = Neither Agree nor Disagree; 5 = Somewhat agree; 6 = Agree; 7 =Strongly agree).

State Level Questions. Of the 13 state level issue statements, 4 received a rating of 6 or higher, indicatinga high level of agreement (previous rating in parentheses, if available):

1. The most important issue in the 2010 election, regardless of the race, is the economy. 6.09 (n/a)2. Colorado's Supreme Court is, on balance, too partisan. 6.09 (5.72)

3. Voter-approved retention of Colorado Supreme Court justices is a necessary check on judicialoverreach. 6.08 (5.82)

4. Bill Ritter's management of the state has contributed to worsening our current economic situation.6.07 (6.08)

Two statements received a rating lower than 3, indicating a significant level of disagreement:

1. Bill Ritter and Colorado Democrats needed to pass the FASTER car tax increase to help fix the statebudget crisis. 2.25 (1.82)

2. There is little or no room to contract the state government payroll without cutting essential servicesthat benefit Coloradans. 2.82 (2.58)

Federal Level Questions. Of the 11 federal level issue statements, 3 received a rating of 6 or higher,

indicating a high level of agreement (previous rating in parentheses, if available):1. President Barack Obamas policies will hurt Democrats in Colorado in the 2010 midterm election.

6.36 (5.96)

2. Votes in the US Senate will hurt Democrats in Colorado in the 2010 midterm election. 6.33 (5.59)3. Votes in the US House will hurt Democrats in Colorado in the 2010 midterm election. 6.24 (5.69)

One statement received a rating lower than 2 (also the only lower than 3), indicating a high level ofdisagreement:

1. Michael Bennet has shown decisive leadership as Colorado's junior U.S. Senator. 1.88 (1.80)

General Questions. Of the 12 general issue statements, 3 received a rating of 6 or higher, indicating a highlevel of agreement (previous rating in parentheses, if available):

1. I would describe myself, on balance, as a fiscal or free market conservative. 6.56 (6.22)2. It is not about "left vs. right" but about the power of government vs. the rights of the individual. 6.11

(6.02)

3. Candidates, regardless of party, should be prepared to face a primary challenge. 6.05 (5.87)Two statements received a rating lower than 3, indicating a significant level of disagreement:

1. My overall opinion of Democrats is positive. 1.62 (1.52)2. Incumbents should not be challenged by primary opponents. 2.10 (2.02)

Honorable Mention. The statement The TEA Parties are an effective method of voicing opinions on the sizeof government and taxationreceived slightly more agreement than previous surveys: 5.97 (5.89, 5.81)

Miscellaneous. All the issue statements concerning the likely re-election of Democratic and RepublicanCongressional candidates in Colorado trended toward greater agreement meaning survey-takers are lesslikely to believe Diana DeGette, Jared Polis, John Salazar, Doug Lamborn or Mike Coffman will be defeated.

The most neutral statement in the survey was I dislike party labels at 3.99 (4.00 is a perfectly neutralrating)


January 2010 Colorado's Political Temperature Survey Results

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