James Montier - Darwin's Mind: The Evolutionary Foundations of Heuristics and Biases

7/29/2019 James Montier - Darwin's Mind: The Evolutionary Foundations of Heuristics and Biases

1/31

Barwkis Fkib5Rdc cvonutkoiary jouibatkois oj dcurkstkms aib lkascs

Eafcs Foitkcr

Bcm


2/31

Alstramt5

Rdc matanoùc oj lkascs tdat moìktkvc psymdono`ksts davc luknt up ovcr tdc

nast tdrcc bcmabcs sccf to davc stcf jrof oic oj tdrcc roots scnj&

bcmcptkoi. dcurkstkm skfpnkjkmatkoi $kimnubki` ajjcmt+. aib somkan kitcramtkoi)

Rdks papcr attcfpts to cxpnorc tdc cvonutkoiary lasks oj camd oj tdcsc roots)

Rdc skfpnc trutd ks tdat wc arcit abaptcb to jamc tdc wornb as kt ks tobay) Pc

cvonvcb ki a vcry bkjjcrcit civkroifcit. aib kt ks tdat aimcstran cvonutkoiary

civkroifcit tdat òvcris tdc way ki wdkmd wc tdkih aib jccn) Pc mai ncari to

pusd our fkibs kito antcriatkvc ways oj tdkihki`. lut kt ksit casy as wc davc

to ovcrmofc tdc nkfkts to ncariki` poscb ly scnj&bcmcptkoi) Ki abbktkoi. wc

iccb to pramtkmc tdc rcjrafki` oj bata kito forc cvonutkoiary jafknkar jorfs kjwc arc to promcss kt morrcmtny)

Hcy worbs5 dcurkstkms. lkascs. ratkoiankty. cvonutkoiary psymdono`y

BA\PKI] FKIB5 1

RDC CZONSRKOIA\[ JOSIBARKOI] OJ DCS\K]RKM] AIB LKA]C] 1

KIR\OBSMRKOI =A RATOIOF[ OJ LKA] =CZONSRKOIA\[ W][MDONO@[ 2ICS\OW][MDONO@[ 3]CNJ BCMCWRKOI :DCS\K]RKM ]KFWNKJKMARKOI 1


3/31

Kitrobumtkoi

Moiskbcrki` tdat moìktkvc shknns arc so kfportait. wc sccf to spcib

rcfarhalnc nkttnc tkfc tdkihki` alout dow wc tdkih) Wcrdaps iowdcrc ks forc

olvkous tdat ki tdc kibustry ki wdkmd K worh tdc jkiaimkan arcia)

Rahc aianysts. tdcsc kibkvkbuans arc $supposcbny+ dk`dny shknncb projcsskoians

bccpny smdooncb ki tdc kibustrkcs tdcy jonnow) Rdc trakiki` mourscs ojjcrcb ly

D\ bcpartfcits arc forc nkhcny to jomus oi prcscitatkoi aib moffuikmatkoi

shknns. or vanuatkoi tcmdikqucs tdai oi tdc rk`dt way to tdkih)

Cvci at smdoon jcw mdknbrci arc cvcr prcscitcb wktd fatcrkan oi dow wcsdounb approamd tdkihki`) Kibccb faiy pcopnc tahc uflra`c wdci tdc

tcamdki` oj moìktkvc shknns ks cvci fcitkoicb) Ajtcr ann surcny tdcy mai anrcaby

tdkih. sumd ai ajjroit to scnj&kfa`c ks iot `cicranny wcnn rcmckvcb $ai cxafpnc

oj oic oj tdc scnj bcmcptkoi lkascs wc wknn abbrcss lcnow+)

Bcspktc tdks rcamtkoi. psymdono`ksts davc spcit faiy ycars matanoùki` tdc

kiammuramkcs oj our tdou`dt promcsscs) Rdks promcss was kispkrcb ly tdc worhoj Hadicfai aib Rvcrshy $scc Hadicfai aib Rvcrshy $1;4


4/31

Rdc mdannci`c ki tdks papcr ks to cxpnorc tdc tdrcc root mauscs oj dcurkstkms

aib lkascs uski` tdc kisk`dts jrof lotd cvonutkoiary psymdono`y aib

icurolkono`y) Lcjorc cflarhki` oi a bctakncb bksmusskoi sofc lamh`rouib

oi tdcsc two approamdcs fay lc ki orbcr)

Cvonutkoiary psymdono`y

Cvonutkoiary psymdono`y tahcs tdc toons aib tcmdikqucs oj cvonutkoiary

lkono`y sumd as jkticss aib abaptatkoi aib uscs tdcf to uibcrstaib wdy our

fcitan promcsscs arc tdc way tdcy arc)

Rdc untkfatc cvonutkoiary akf jor aiy `cic ks to cisurc kts cxkstcimc ki tdc

icxt `cicratkoi) Abaptatkois arc sonutkois to rcprobumtkvc prolncfs) Jor

kistaimc. fusmncs arc ai abaptatkoi. aib tdckr juimtkoi ks to appny jormc to

varkous parts oj tdc loby) Ki `cicran. ann fcflcrs oj a spcmkcs oj tdc safc

scx aib bcvcnopfcitan sta`c sdarc tdc safc juimtkoian oràiksatkoi $k)c).

davc tdc safc abaptatkois+) Ann dufais davc loics. fusmncs. dcarts. cycs.

ctm) Abaptatkois sdounb kfprovc jkticss) Jkticss ks our alknkty to pass oi our

`cics. wdkmd ki tdc Barwkikai smdcfc oj tdki`s ks tdc untkfatc fotkvatkoi)

A taxoiofy oj lkascs

Moiscrvatksf lkas

Moìktkvc bkssoiaimc

Dkibsk`dt lkas

Moijkrfatkoi lkas

]cnj Attrklutkoi lkas

Ovcrmoijkbcimc

Ovcroptkfksf

Knnuskoi oj moitron

Knnuskoi oj hiowncb`c

]cnj Bcmcptkoi

$Nkfkts to ncariki`+

Noss avcrskoi/Wrospcmt tdcory

Muc Mofpctktkoi

Avaknalknkty lkas

Aimdorki`/]ankcimc

Matcròrkzatkoi

Jrafki`

\cprcscitatkvcicss

\c`rct tdcory

Aflkùkty avcrskoi

]cnj moitron

$Dypcrlonkm bksmouitki`+

Foob

Cfotkoi/Ajjcmt

Dcurkstkm ]kfpnkjkmatkoi

$Kijorfatkoi promcsski` crrors+

Masmabcs

Dcrbki`

Moitakòi

Kfktatkoi

]omkan Kitcramtkoi

Lkascs


5/31

Pdknc sofc prolncf sonvki` alknktkcs $juimtkois+ oj tdc icrvous systcf arc

olvkous $c)`). vkskoi+. faiy arc iot8 tdc `oan oj cvonutkoiary psymdono`y ks to

kbcitkjy ann tdcjuimtkois oj tdc mo`iktkvc systcf

Cvonutkoiary psymdono`y scchs to cxpnorc tdc ways ki wdkmd our fkibs davc

lcci jorfcb ly tdc promcss oj cvonutkoi) ]kfpny put Dofo sapkcis sapkcis

$you aib K+ davc lcci arouib jor sofc 1


6/31

]cnj bcmcptkoi

Rdc jkrst faeor matcòry oj dcurkstkms aib lkas tdat K wksd to cxafkic mofcs

uibcr tdc monncmtkvc dcabki` oj scnj bcmcptkoi $nkfkts to ncariki`+) Rdcsc

lkascs arc tdc oics tdat ncab us to lcnkcvc tdat wc arc lcttcr brkvcrs tdai

avcra`c) Ash a roof junn oj pcopnc dow faiy oj tdcf arc alovc avcra`c

novcrs. aib tdc iorfan rcspoisc ks cvcryoic! Ash a mnass oj stubcits wdo wknn

jkiksd ki tdc top danj oj tdc mnass aib arouib 47# oj tdcf lcnkcvc tdcy wknn) Kvc

ashcb faiy aubkcimcs oj juib faia`crs ovcr tdc ycars kj tdcy tdkih tdcy arc

lcttcr at tdckr eols tdai avcra`c. aib jar jar forc tdai danj lcnkcvc tdcy

ommupy sumd a ikmdc) Cjjcmtkvcny wc ann nkhc to lcnkcvc tdat wc kidalkt @arrksoi

Hcknnors Nahc Poclcòic. wdcrc tdc wofci arc stroi`. tdc fci arc òob

noohki`. aib ann tdc mdknbrci alovc avcra`c)

K davc nalcnncb tdks matcòry as nkfkts to ncariki` as wcnn as scnj bcmcptkoi)

Cmoiofksts jrcqucitny tcib to nalour uibcr tdc assufptkoi tdat ncariki` wknn

lc ai uilkascb promcss) Dowcvcr. psymdono`ksts `cicranny qucstkoi tdks

lcnkcj) Jor kistaimc. a trakt hiowi as scnj attrklutkoi lkas prcscits a rcan

mdannci`c to ncariki`) ]cnj attrklutkoi lkas rcjcrs to sktuatkois wdcrcly òob

outmofcs arc attrklutcb to shknn. wdknst lab outmofcs arc attrklutcb to lab

numh) Kj fkstahcs arc matcòrkscb as lab numh. wdat dopc davc wc jor ncariki`jrof tdcf?


7/31

Fkmdacn @azzaik`a. a icurosmkcitkst. das sdowi tdat wc nkc to ourscnvcs) Rdc

lraki nktcranny wcavcs a tkssuc oj nkcs to eustkjy kts lcdavkour) ]pnkt lraki patkcits

arc kibkvkbuans wdo davc dab tdckr mcrclran dcfkspdcrcs sur`kmanny

bksmoiicmtcb as a trcatfcit jor cpkncpsy $tdc morpus mannosuf ks scvcrcb+)

Camd danj oj tdc lraki stknn juimtkois. lut tdcrc ks io noi`cr aiy moffuikmatkoi

lctwcci tdc two)

Fost juimtkois oj tdc scisory kiputs to tdc lraki arc mrosscb wkrcb. sumd tdat.

jor kistaimc. tdc ncjt danj oj tdc jkcnb oj vkskoi ks rcmckvcb aib promcsscb ly tdc

rk`dt daib skbc oj tdc lraki) @azzaik`a $1;0


8/31

Ior ks kt eust spnkt lraki patkcits wdo fahc up cxmuscs to eustkjy/ratkoianksc

lcdavkour) Ikslctt aib Pknsoi $1;00+ nakb out faiy pakrs oj stomhki`s. aib

ashcb nabkcs to scncmt wdkmd pakr tdcy nkhcb tdc fost) Pdci tdc wofci wcrc

qucstkoicb as to tdc rcasois jor tdckr scncmtkoi. tdcy vonuitccrcb ann sorts oj

woibcrjun cxmuscs alout tcxturc aib sdccricss) Dowcvcr. ann tdc pakrs oj

stomhki`s wcrc amtuanny kbcitkman!

Dow oi cartd mounb scnj&bcmcptkoi amtuanny provc to lc ai cvonutkoiary

wkiicr? Rwo avciucs mai dcnp cxpnaki our iaturan tcibcimy towarbs scnj

bcmcptkoi) Jkrstny. wktdki moffuian nkvki`. tdc alknkty to spot mdcatcrs wknn lc a

uscjun juimtkoi)

Dofo sapkcis sapkcis sccf to davc `cicranny nkvcb ki sfann `roups

tdrou`dout tdckr dkstory) Kibccb. cvci our cvonutkoiary aimcstors sumd as

Austranopktdcmus sccf to davc nkvcb ki `roups) Rdc no`km jor `roup nkvki` ks

olvkous wktdki tdc cvonutkoiary aimcstran civkroifcit)

Rdc fost kffcbkatc lcicjkt oj moffuian nkvki` ks tdc sajcty ki iuflcrs

moimcpt. kibccb sumd lcdavkour ks vksklnc wktdki mdkfpaizccs tobay)

]cmoibny. dufais wcrc cjjcmtkvcny duitcr/`atdcr somkctkcs) Joob was sdarcb

out to sfootd jnumtuatkois ki tdc joob mymnc) Jrccnoabcrs jor protcmtkoi or joob

sdarki` wounb lc a lurbci upoi tdc `roup. dcimc tdc alknkty to spot mdcatcrs

lcmofcs a uscjun shknn)

Ro bcfoistratc our shknns ki mdcatcr spottki` Mosfkbcs aib Rooly su``cstcbnoohki` at Pasoi scncmtkoi tcsts) Rdcy su``cstcb two jorfs oj tdc tcst)

Jkrst. nooh at tdc jour marbs lcnow. camd ks nalcnncb wktd a ncttcr oi oic skbc .

aib a iuflcr oi tdc otdcr) Kj K tcnn you tdat kj a marb das a C oi oic skbc ks

fust davc a 2 oi tdc otdcr skbc. wdkmd marbs bo you iccb to turi ovcr to scc

kj K af tcnnki` tdc trutd?


9/31

Lcjorc K `kvc tdc aiswcr iow moiskbcr tdc jonnowki`) [ou davc lcci

cfpnoycb at a ik`dt&mnul as a lar faia`cr) Dowcvcr. tdc mnul ks hcci iot to

annow uibcra`c brkihki`) Kj sofcoic ks uibcr 14 ycars onb tdcy fust iot brkih

anmodon) Iow ki tdc prolncf lcnow camd marb ks a mustofcr5 kt says tdc

mustofcrs a`c oi oic skbc. aib wdat dc/sdc ks brkihki` oi tdc otdcr skbc)

Iow wdkmd marbs bo you iccb to turi ovcr to mdcmh tdcrc ks io knncàn

uibcra`c brkihki` òki` oi ki tdc mnul?

Ki lotd mascs. tdc morrcmt aiswcr ks tdc jkrst aib nast marbs oiny) Ki tdc nattcr

prolncf tdks sdounb lc olvkous you arc noohki` oiny at tdosc pcopnc

brkihki` anmodon. aib oiny tdosc pcopnc uibcr tdc ncàn a`c jor brkihki`) Ki tdc

jorfcr prolncf. tdcsc arc tdc oiny two marbs tdat mai provc K was nyki` $kj you

tdou`dt C aib 2 tdci you arc sujjcrki` jrof moijkrfatkoi lkas. noohki` jor

kijorfatkoi tdat a`rccs wktd you. aiotdcr nkfkt to ncariki`!+

Mosfkbcs aib Rooly marrkcb out iufcrous moitron tcsts to cisurc tdat tdc

jrafki` oj tdc mdcatcr scncmtkoi prolncf was at tdc dcart oj tdckr jkibki` aib

camd tcst moijkrfcb tdat kt was kibccb) Cjjcmtkvcny. tdc dufai ramc ks a `roup

oj wanhki` nkc bctcmtor famdkics! Dowcvcr. iotc tdc kfportaimc oj jrafki`)

Pc jkib kt kimrcbklny darb to scc tdrou`d tdc way ki wdkmd kijorfatkoi ks

prcscitcb to us) Rdc lraki ks cjjcmtkvcny fobunar. kj a prolncf ks prcscitcb ki

C 2 H 0

Brkihki`

Lccr


10/31

a jafknkar jasdkoi wc mai sonvc kt. lut ki aiotdcr `uksc wc jann jnat oi our jamcs)

Dcimc jrafki` mounb lcmofc tdc fost kfportait lkas oj ann $forc oi tdks

lcnow+)

Iow dow bocs tdks ann rcnatc to scnj bcmcptkoi? Pcnn. Rrkvcrs $1;43.


11/31

Jrccbfai òcs oi to nkih dk`d scnj&cstccf aib dk`d ratki`s oj moitron as

morrcnatcs oj dappkicss)

Raynor aib dcr varkous autdors davc jouib tdat mcrtaki `roups $sumd as

maimcr patkcits. aib AKB] sujjcrs+ fay lcicjkt jrof posktkvc knnuskois. scc

Dcn`csoi aib Raynor $1;;=+. \ccb $1;4;+ aib Poob. Raynor aib Nkmdtfai.

1;43+) Rdc lcnkcj tdat oic ks dcantdkcr or mopki` lcttcr tdai otdcr skfknarny

ajjnkmtcb patkcits ks assomkatcb wktd rcbumcb bkstrcss)

Ki `cicran. Raynor jkibs tdat a fknb bc`rcc oj scnj bcmcptkoi as kt appnkcs to

scnj&cvanuatkoi aib tdc sumd nkhc. jkts jar lcttcr wktd psymdono`ksts worhki`

bcjkiktkoi oj fcitan dcantd) Kibccb. tdosc wdo arc mnasskjkcb as fknbny

bcprcsscb ly psymdono`ksts sccf to namh tdc posktkvc knnuskois tdat bofkiatc

tdc rcst oj us) Raynor aib Lrowi pokit out tdat tdcsc kibkvkbuans tcib to rcmann

lotd tdc posktkvc aib icàtkvc scnjrcncvait kijorfatkoi wktd cquan casc. sdow

`rcatcr cvcidaibkicss ki tdckr attrklutkois oj pcrjorfaimc. aib bkspnay dk`d

bc`rcc oj moi`rucimc lctwcci scnj&cvanuatkois aib cxtcrian cvanuatkois)

Rdcy moimnubc Ki sdort. kt appcars to lc iot tdc wcnn&abeustcb kibkvkbuan lut

tdc kibkvkbuan wdo cxpcrkcimcs sulecmtkvc bkstrcss wdo ks forc nkhcny to

promcss scnj&rcncvait kijorfatkoi ki a rcnatkvcny uilkascb aib lanaimcb

jasdkoi) ]o ki as fumd as fcitan dcantd ks ai kfportait jkticss trakt. scnj

bcmcptkoi oimc aàki dcnps to lc a Barwkikai wkiicr)

Oj moursc. scnj&bcmcptkoi mai iot ò uimdcmhcb) Rrkvcr aib Icwtoi $1;4


12/31

Moivcrsatkois burki` taxkki` prkor to tahc ojj

Mo&pknot Wknot

Bctakncb bcsmrkptkoi oj siow oi wki`s Bkfkiutkvc bcsmrkptkoi oj siow oiwki`s

Manns attcitkoi to bai`cr tdcy jamc $too

noi` skimc bc&kmki`+

Bcjncmts attcitkoi to kbcan wornb $bc&

kmki` famdkic oi tdc ruiway+Ashs jor abvkmc oi tahc&ojj Rcnns dkf to bo wdat dc waits

]ourmc5 Rrkvcrs $


13/31

jccn prkbc at tdc cib oj tdc àfc) Kt mait jccn eoy. dappkicss or tdc paki oj

noski`) A famdkic mai cvci lc pro`raffcb to mdcat at Mdcss. lut bocs so

wktdout jccnki` ùknt or rcforsc)

Ro uibcrstaib dow dufais tdkih wc iccb to uibcrstaib dow cfotkois

kitcramt wktd tdc wkbcr moìktkvc promcss) Jor kistaimc. icurolkono`ksts davc

sdowi tdat cfotkois arc `cicranny `cicratcb vka kitcramtkoi wktd tdc loby)

Rdc uimoismkous `cicrator oj tdcsc cfotkois ks tdc nkflkm systcf $ki

partkmunar tdc afy`bana+) Dowcvcr. tdc icomortcx anso das a ronc to pnay ki tdc

moismkous rcmoìktkoi oj cfotkoi)

Antdou`d icurolkono`ksts datc to abfkt kt. tdc lrakis dcfkspdcrcs bo tcib to

nooh ajtcr bkjjcrcit juimtkois) Lrakis arc dk`dny abvaimcb pkcmcs oj hkt. wc bo

tdcf ai kieustkmc wdci wc skfpnkjy tdcf too fumd Dowcvcr. juimtkoian F\K

smais bo rcvcan tdat mcrtaki typcs oj tash sccf to trk``cr darb wkrcb

rcspoiscs jrof tdc lraki)

Rdc ncjt dcfkspdcrc tcibs to lc forc aianytkman. forc no`kman. forc prcmksc

aib ks tkfc scisktkvc aib bcans wktd alstramt moìktkoi) Ki moitrast. tdc rk`dt

dcfkspdcrc ks forc cfotkoian. brcafkcr. kt promcsscs tdki`s ki a donkstkm

jasdkoi. aib bcans forc wktd scisory pcrmcptkoi tdai alstramt moìktkoi)

Rdks jkts icatny wktd tdc kbcas bcvcnopcb ly psymdono`ksts tdat wc davc buan

promcsski` systcfs wktdki our lrakis) Jor a rcvkcw scc ]nofai $


14/31

]ystcf OicKituktkvc

]ystcf Rwo\cjncmtkvc

Wromcss Mdaramtcrkstkms

Autofatkm Moitronncb

Cjjortncss Cjjortjun

Assomkatkvc Bcbumtkvc\apkb. paranncn ]now. scrkan

Wromcss opaquc ]cnj awarc

]hknncb amtkoi \unc appnkmatkoi

Moitcit oi wdkmd promcsscs amt

Ajjcmtkvc Icutran

Mausan propcisktkcs ]tatkstkms

Moimrctc. spcmkjkm Alstramt

Wrototypcs ]cts

Eoscpd NcBoux. a icurosmkcitkst aib `kjtcb wrktcr nays out ki mncar bctakn ki dkslooh Rdc Cfotkoian Lraki. tdat tdc cfotkoi oj jcar das two icuran patdways

ahki to systcf oic aib systcf two) Rdc cfotkoi oj jcar probumcs oic oj two

rcamtkois ki cxtrcfks jnk`dt or jrcczc) Pc cktdcr rui jrof tdc tdrcat or wc

jrcczc ki tdc dopc oj cnubki` bctcmtkoi ly tdc tdrcat) Rdks cfotkoi sccfs to

lc scrvcb ly two icuran patdways) Oic jast aib bkrty. aib iotalny

cvonutkoiarkny fumd onbcr) NcBoux rcjcrs to tdks as tdc now roab) Rdc otdcr

forc rcjncmtkvc aib no`kman. lut fumd snowcr. rcjcrrcb to as tdc dk`d roab)

Rdc bai`cr ks pcrmckvcb $ai cfotkoian stkfunk+ aib tdc scisory Rdanafus

promcsscs tdc kijorfatkoi) Rdks kijorfatkoi ks tdci scit to two bkjjcrcit

mcitrcs) Oi tdc now roab kt passcs to tdc Afy`bana. part oj tdc nkflkm systcf

oic oj tdc onbcst parts oj our lraki) Rdks ann dappcis ki tdc fcitan

lamh`rouib aib rcqukrcs io moismkous tdou`dt $systcf oic+) Dowcvcr. tdks

ks a prctty uisopdkstkmatcb promcsski` routc. aib jrcqucitny `kvcs kimorrcmt

moimnuskois)

Rdcsc moimnuskois arc dcnb ki mdcmh ki tdc otdcr roab) Oi tdc dk`d roab. tdc

]cisory Rdanafus scibs tdc kijorfatkoi oj a tdrcat to tdc ]cisory Mortcx

wdkmd ki a forc moismkous jasdkoi asscsscs tdc possklnc tdrcat. aib tdci

scibs kijorfatkoi to tdc Afy`bana ki orbcr to fotkvatc a rcspoisc)


15/31

Kt ks possklnc tdat pdolkas arc mauscb ly sktuatkois wdci tdc dk`d roab jakns to

hkmh ki) Jor kistaimc. fy skìkjkmait otdcr sujjcrs jrof a tcrrklnc pdolka oj

siahcs. to tdc cxtcit tdat cvci watmdki` oic oi tcncvkskoi wknn scib dcr

ruiiki` jrof tdc rui. jccnki` qucasy) Mounb tdks lc a masc oj tdc now roab

trk``crki` a rcspoisc. lut tdc dk`d roab jaknki` to hkmh ki aib rcvcan tdat

sofctdki` oi tcncvkskoi mait possklny cibai`cr you?

Nct fc `kvc you ai cxafpnc wdcrc K fk`dt lc alnc to profpt your two

bkjjcrcit systcfs to mofc to bkjjcrcit moimnuskois) Kt ks lascb oi a 1;37s

àfc sdow. dostcb ly Foity Dann) Moitcstaits wcrc ojjcrcb a mdokmc oj oic

oj tdrcc boors) Lcdkib two oj tdc boors tdcrc was a òat. lcdkib oic oj tdc

boors tdcrc was a mar) Spoi scncmtki` a boor. tdc dost oj tdc sdow opcis oic

oj tdc two boors iot scncmtcb. rcvcanki` a òat) Ajtcr dc das bocs tdks. dc

ojjcrs you tdc opportuikty to swktmd your mdokmc. wdat sdounb you bo?

Rdc mdaimcs arc your ùt jccnki` ks stkmh wktd tdc boor you mdoosc) Pdci

ashcb to cxpnaki tdks mdokmc. you fk`dt say tdc boors arc kibcpcibcit. so tdc

opciki` oj aiotdcr boor rcvcans iotdki` to you)

K davc ashcb tdks qucstkoi to sofc oj tdc lrk`dtcst pcopnc K hiow. aib to a

pcrsoi K davc yct to fcct aiyoic wdo mdooscs to swktmd tdckr mdokmc) Kibccb

K davc cvci scci projcssors oj fatdcfatkms `ct dcatcb uibcr tdc monnar

arùki` tdat tdc boors arc kibcpcibcit aib dcimc tdc rcvcanki` oj a òat ks

krrcncvait) Dowcvcr. tdc morrcmt aiswcr ks tdat you sdounb swktmd) Lcjorc you

tdrow tdks papcr away ki bksùst at fy tofjooncry nct fc try to cxpnaki wdy kt

ks tdat you sdounb swktmd)

Rdc prolalknkty tdat you wknn mdosc tdc morrcmt boor kiktkanny ks 1/=. skimc tdcrc

arc tdrcc boors camd oj wdkmd das ai cquan mdaimc oj moimcanki` tdc prkzc)

Rdc prolalknkty tdat tdc boor Foity Dann mdooscs moimcans tdc prkzc ks 7. skimc

dc icvcrmdooscs tdc boor tdat moitakis tdc prkzc) ]kimc tdc suf oj tdc tdrcc

prolalknktkcs ks 1. tdc prolalknkty tdat tdc prkzc ks lcdkib tdc otdcr boor ks 1 &

$1/= ( 7+. wdkmd cquans


16/31

Iow your rcjncmtkvc systcf oj tdkihki` mai oiny scc tdc morrcmt aiswcr. lut

rcfcflcr at jkrst you wounb davc swori tdat you wounb stkmh to your jkrst

mdokmc oj boor) [our kituktkvc systcf was bofkiatki`)

Aiotdcr cxafpnc oj tdc kfportaimc oj cfotkois to mo`iktkoi mofcs jrof tdc

sorry tanc oj Wdkicas @a`c) Rdc strai`c story oj Wdkicas @a`c ks lcautkjunny

bomufcitcb ki Aitoiko Bafaskos kisk`dtjun aib powcrjun looh. Bcsmartcs

Crror)

Wdkicas @a`c was a


17/31

Aitoiko Bafasko das spcit nar`c parts oj dks worhki` nkjc bcanki` wktd fobcri

bay cqukvancits oj Wdkicas @a`c) Ki Bcsmartcs Crror. Bafasko bcsmrklcs

tdc nkjc aib tkfcs oj Cnnkot. a =7 ycar onb fai) Wrkor to jannki` knn Cnnkot was

summcssjun aib wcnn abeustcb) Dowcvcr. dc sujjcrcb a lraki tufour. wdkmd

was rcfovcb summcssjunny) Kt dab `rowi eust alovc tdc fkbnkic. ki tdc

prcjroitan mortcx) Jonnowki` tdc sur`cry. Cnnkot uibcrwcit a faeor pcrsoiankty

mdai`c) Dc io noi`cr sccfcb to lc tdc Cnnkot hiowi to dks jrkcibs aib jafkny)

Bafasko bcsmrklcs a typkman bay jor Cnnkot

Moiskbcr tdc lc`kiiki` oj dks bay)5 Dc iccbcb profptki` to `ct startcb ki tdcforiki` aib prcparc jor worh) Oimc at worh dc was uialnc to faia`c dkstkfc propcrny8 dc mounb iot lc trustcb wktd a smdcbunc) Pdci tdc eol manncb jor

kitcrruptki` ai amtkvkty aib turiki` to aiotdcr. dc fk`dt pcrskstioictdcncssKfa`kic a tash kivonvki` rcabki` aib mnasskjyki` bomufcits oja `kvci mnkcit) Cnnkot wounb rcab aib junny uibcrstaib tdc skìkjkmaimc oj tdcfatcrkan. aib dc mcrtakiny hicw dow to sort tdc moitcit) Rdc prolncf was tdatdc was nkhcny. ann oj a subbci. to turi jrof tdc sortki` tash dc dab kiktkatcb torcabki` oic oj tdosc papcrs marcjunny aib kitcnnk`citny. aib spcib tdc wdoncbay boki` so. Or dc fk`dt spcib a wdonc ajtcriooi bcnklcratki` oi wdkmdprkimkpnc oj matcòrkzatkoi sdounb lc appnkcb5 ]dounb kt lc batc. skzc ojbomufcit. pcrtkicimc to tdc masc. or aiotdcr?

[ct Cnnkot sccfcb to pass ann tdc staibarb tcsts oj fcfory. aib pcrsoiankty

tdat tdc psymdono`ksts mounb tdrow at dkf) Bafasko bkb iotc tdat Cnnkot dab tdc

uiicrvki` alknkty to bksmuss dks moibktkoi wktdout cfotkoi) Kt natcr lcmafc

mncar to Bafasko tdat Cnnkot mounb io noi`cr jccn cfotkoi) Bafasko lcmafc

moivkimcb tdat Cnnkots cfotkoincss statc was kitkfatcny moiicmtcb to dks

kialknkty to fahc bcmkskois)

Bafasko das mrcatcb tdc sofatkm farhcr dypotdcsks to dcnp cxpnaki cfotkois

mcitran ronc ki tdc moìktkvc promcss) Dc bcsmrklcs tdc sofatkm farhcr asjonnows5 lcjorc you cvci cià`c ki aiy hkib oj most/lcicjkt aianysks $rcjncmtkvc

systcf two stync tdou`dt+. tdc lraki ruis sofc smciarkos8 wdci a lab

outmofc moiicmtcb wktd a `kvci rcspoisc optkoi mofcs to fkib $cvci jor tdc

lrkcjcst fofcit+. you cxpcrkcimc ai uipncasait ùt jccnki` $tdks ks a systcf

oic promcss ki our aianysks alovc+) Rdks ks tdc sofatkm farhcr)

Rdc farhcr jormcs attcitkoi oito tdc icàtkvc outmofcs. aib `cicratcs awariki` skìan) Rdks skìan fay ncab you to rcecmt tdc optkoi out oj daib)


18/31

Cjjcmtkvcny kt runcs out mcrtaki patds. protcmtki` you jrof juturc noss. aib

annowki` you to mdoosc afoi` tdc rcfakiki` possklknktkcs) Rdc alscimc oj

sofatkm farhcrs mrcatcs tdc kialknkty to mdoosc lctwcci bcmkskois. lcmausc

ann arc cxafkicb ki kitrkmatc bctakn. as Bafasko jouib wktd Cnnkot)

Bafasko aib dks monnca`ucs bcvkscb a mncvcr cxpcrkfcit to scc dow tdc

rcspoiscs oj patkcits wktd bafa`cb prcjroitan mortcxs mofparcb wktd iorfan

pcopnc wktd rc`arb to tdc mrcatkoi oj sofatkm farhcrs) Camd pnaycr was sat ki

jroit oj jour pamhs oj marbs $pamhs A. L. M. B+) Wnaycrs wcrc `kvci a noai oj

"


19/31

Cjjcmtkvcny. tdc prcjroitan bafa`cb pnaycrs sccf to namh tdc alknkty to mrcatc

sofatkm farhcrs jor avokbki` tdc dk`d rksh pamhs) Antdou`d tdcy arc stknn

scisktkvc to lotd puiksdfcit aib rcwarb. tdcy mait mrcatc tdc assomkatkois

icmcssary jor avokbki` tdc tcibcimy jor tdc fost kffcbkatcny rcwarbki`

optkoi) Ki sofc scisc. tdcy davc nost tdckr scnj moitron. aib tdckr alknkty to

fahc bcmkskois)

Cfotkoi sccfs to lc mcitran to our alknkty to amtuanny fahc bcmkskois) NcBoux

wrktcs Pdknc moismkous moitron ovcr cfotkois ks wcah. cfotkois mai jnoob

moismkousicss) Rdks ks lcmausc tdc wkrki` oj tdc lraki at tdks pokit ki our

cvonutkoiary dkstory ks sumd tdat moiicmtkois jrof cfotkoian systcfs to tdc

mo`iktkvc systcfs arc stroi`cr tdai moiicmtkois jrof tdc mo`iktkvc systcf to

tdc cfotkoian systcfs)

A sfann $lut tdaihjunny voman+ `roup oj psymdono`ksts aib cmoiofksts davc

lcci pursuki` tdc ronc oj cfotkoi ki tdc `cicratkoi oj dcurkstkms aib lkascs)

Rwo vcry rcmcit aib cxmcnncit cxafpncs oj tdks approamd arc Nocwcistcki ct

an $


20/31

Kfa`kic a sktuatkoi wdcrc you mai wki a prkzc ly tahki` a rcb ecnny lcai jrof

a ear) Pdci prcscitcb wktd sumd mdannci`cs. partkmkpaits ojtci prcjcrrcb to

braw jrof a lown moitakiki` a dk`dcr alsonutc iuflcr. lut a sfanncr

proportkoi. oj rcb lcais $c)`) 0 ki 177+ tdai jrof a lown wktd jcwcr rcb lcais

lut a lcttcr prolalknkty oj wkiiki` $c)`) 1 ki 17+)

]novkm ct an kitcrprct tdks as su``cstki` tdat kfa`cs oj 0 wkiiki` lcais ki tdc

nar`c lown appcarcb to bofkiatc tdc kfa`c oj 1 wkiiki` lcai ki tdc sfann

lown)))moiskstcit wktd tdc ajjcmt dcurkstkm. kfa`cs oj wkiiki` lcais moivcy

posktkvc ajjcmt tdat fotkvatcs mdokmc)

Pdy arc tdc cfotkoian moiicmtkois bofkiait ki ai cvonutkoiary scttki`? Rdc

aiswcr sccfs olvkous) Rdc cfotkois arc forc kfportait to our survkvan tdai

tdc purc mo`iktkvc promcss) Rdkih alout tdc cfotkoi oj jcar cxafpnc tdat K

cxpnorcb carnkcr) Kj tdc systcf oic rcspoisc ks jastcr $anlckt kiammuratc+ kt wknn

hccp us sajc) [cs. kt fay ncab us to sofc jansc posktkvcs ki statkstkman

parnaimc. tdat ks to say. kt fay kbcitkjy sofc sktuatkois as dazarbous tdat

amtuanny arc kiiomuous) Dowcvcr. jansc posktkvc rarcny hknns ki tdks moitcxt) Kt ks

lcttcr to lc sajc tdai sorry or tdc qukmh aib tdc bcab kj you prcjcr) NcBoux

das sdowi tdat ki rats tdc rcamtkoi tkfc oj tdc now roab ks danj oj tdat oj tdc

dk`d roab) Dcimc wc davc lcmofc cvonutkoiarkny tuicb to nkstci to our

systcf oic rcspoiscs)

Pdat oj tdc otdcr dcurkstkms aib lkascs outnkicb uibcr tdc dcabki` oj dcurkstkm

skfpnkjkmatkoi? Kt strkhcs fc tdat cmoiofksts bcvotkoi to ratkoiankty ks lkzarrc)

Ajtcr ann cmoiofkms ks a smkcimc moimcricb wktd tdc annomatkoi oj smarmc

rcsourmcs lctwcci mofpctki` mnakfs) Our fcitan mapamkty ks nkfktcb. so wc

iccb to annomatc ovcr faiy tashs)

Cmoiofksts sdounb lc ann too jafknkar wktd tdc moimcpt oj faxkfkski` sulecmt

to moistrakit) Ki tdks masc. our moistrakits arc our nkfktcb fcitan mapamkty

rai`ki` jrof fcfory. to attcitkoi aib pcrmcptkoi) ]o surcny ai cmoiofkst

tdkihki` alout tdkihki` wounb su``cst tdat sofc jorf oj nkfktcb ratkoiankty ks


21/31

tdc propcr way to fobcn tdc fkib. ratdcr tdai lnktdcny assufki` tdc Zunmai

nkhc no`km alknkty tdat ks staibarb $dowcvcr. uioltakialnc!+

Jor kistaimc. nkfktcb attcitkoi mai dcnp cxpnaki sankcimy cjjcmts. aimdorki`.

aib snow abeustfcit) Rdat ks to say. lcmausc wc as dufais davc a louib oi

our alknkty to pay attcitkoi wc wknn jkib ourscnvcs ommaskoianny brawi to tdki`s

tdat sdounbit moimcri us $sankcimy cjjcmts+. wdci wc jkib sumd tdki`s

mapturki` our attcitkoi wc wknn tcib to donb oito tdcf $aimdorki` cjjcmts+)

Oimc wc davc aimdorcb wc wknn abeust away jrof tdks lcimdfarh oiny vcry

snowny)

Cvonutkoi das iot mrcatcb us to lc famdkics. kt das brkvci us to faxkfksc our

jkticss) Ki orbcr to bo tdks kt das pnamcb cfotkois at tdc vcry mcitrc oj our

tdou`dt fahki` promcss) Wnus. wc sdounb iot tdkih oj ourscnvcs as famdkics

wktd louibncss mapamkty to manmunatc aib optkfksc) Kibccb cmoiofkms wounb

su``cst a jar forc fobcst sonutkoi tdai totan ratkoiankty kj oiny cmoiofksts

wounb jonnow tdc no`km oj tdckr owi bksmkpnkic!

K abfkt K davc straycb jar jrof tdc cvonutkoiary lasks oi wdkmd K startcb) ]o kt

ks tkfc to rcturi) Pdy ks kt tdat psymdono`ksts sumd as Hadicfai aib Rvcrshy

davc uimovcrcb sumd a wkbc rai`c oj moffoi crrors ki our tdkihki` pattcris?

Rdc skfpnc aiswcr ks wc ojtci skfpny boit uibcrstaib prolalknkty vcry wcnn)

Pc as a spcmkcs arc `cicranny prolalknkty lnkib) Wrolalknkty ki kts murrcit jorf

rcanny oiny surjamcb burki` tdc ck`dtccitd mcitury tdaihs to tdc \cvcrcib

Rdofas Laycs) Rdat ks a fcrc iaioscmoib oi ai cvonutkoiary tkfc smanc)

Our lrakis skfpny davc cvonvcb to tdkih ki prolalknkstkm tcrfs) A`akist tdc

lamhbrop oj tdc cvonutkoiary aimcstran civkroifcit. wounb wc davc iccbcb to

bcan wktd aiy jorf oj prolalknkty? Pc eust woit davc aiy usc jor sumd a shknn)

Eust as wc saw wktd tdc Pasoi scncmtkoi tcst uscb ly Mosfkbcs aib Rooly.

tdc prcscitatkoi oj tdc bata fattcrs) Zkrtuanny cvcryoic mai sonvc tdc Pasoi


22/31

scncmtkoi tcst wdci kt ks jrafcb as a mdcatcr bctcmtkoi tcst. lut put kt kito a

bkjjcrcit jorfat aib oiny arouib oj pcopnc mai sonvc kt)

]ofc psymdono`ksts $so manncb cmono`kman ratkoianksts+ sccf to tdkih lcmausc

wc mai sonvc prolncfs wdci tdcy arc prcscitcb ki oic jorf. tdci wc

sdounbit worry alout tdc crrors stcffki` jrof sonvki` skfknar prolncfs ki

bkjjcrcit jorfats tdat lkascs arcit rcanny lkascs)

K wounb bksa`rcc) Our fkibs arc fobunar) Camd fobunc ks abaptcb jor sofc

purposc) Dowcvcr. wdci wc boit rcmo`iksc tdc prolncf as mofki` jrof tdat

partkmunar mnass wc jkib kt darb to sonvc) Rdks sccfs to lc wdat dappcis ki

faiy oj tdc lkascs tdat rcsunt jrof dcurkstkm skfpnkjkmatkoi)

Ncts start wktd ai cxafpnc oj prolalknkty lnkibicss) Moiskbcr tdc jonnowki`

$tahci jrof @k`crcizcr $


23/31

@k`crcizcr pokits out tdat kj wc cxprcss tdc prolncf ki iaturan jrcqucimkcs wc

mai sonvc kt skfpny) Rdc prolncf lcmofcs5

Ck`dt out cvcry 1.777 wofci davc lrcast maimcr) Oj tdcsc 4 wofci wktd

lrcast maimcr. 0 wknn davc a posktkvc faffo`raf) Oj tdc rcfakiki` ;;

James Montier - Darwin's Mind: The Evolutionary Foundations of Heuristics and Biases

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Transcript of James Montier - Darwin's Mind: The Evolutionary Foundations of Heuristics and Biases