Political Dimensions of Population Shifts

©Jack A. Goldstone

The Age-Structural Relationship between Median Age and Democracy (From R. Cincotta 2015)

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0.8

0.6

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PercentFREE

Median Age

15 25 35 45

Why Does Age Matter?

• Education grows with higher median age: fewer children mean higher educational investment per child

• Demographic Dividend provides more resources for education

• Smaller youth cohorts mean less violence

• Less dependence on family and clan, more dependence on a reliable state

Emerging Market Countries DifferMedian Age Gross Enrollment

2015 2030(% of age group in Secondary Education)

Brazil 31.2 37.1 53.6*Russia 38.5 42.4 85India 26.9 31.3 69China 36.0 42.1 87South Africa 26.5 29.1 102

Turkey 30.1 35.7 89Indonesia 28.4 32.5 81Mexico 27.7 33.6 84

Egypt 25.8 29.1 76Ghana 20.9 23.8 58Kenya 19.0 21.6 60Nigeria 17.7 18.6 44Philippines 23.4 27.0 85Vietnam 30.7 38.4 65*

Hong Kong 42.1 106

* % with some secondary Ed

China’s Strange Future

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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Pop 15-24

Pop 65+

POP in Millions