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J2, JSOTF NAIL

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TODAY IS:

21 MAR 13

C + 4

D 8 (Ready to attack)

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ClimatologyThis region is frequently traversed by storm systems. As a result temperatures can

vary significantly depending upon strength of system and location within the region

(lowlands generally being warmer than the highlands). These frequent storms also

create long lasting cloud decks and restrictions to visibility. A mixture of rain and

snow falls in the lowlands while mainly snow falls in the highlands.

VISIBILITY2 MILES (FOG, BLOWING SNOW) 50% OF THE TIMELESS THAN 2 MILES 25% OF THE TIMEGREATER THAN 2 MILES 25% OF THE TIME

WINDSPREVAILING FROM SE @ 6 KNOTSSTRONGEST WIND - 47 KNOTS

TYPICAL SKY CONDITIONSBROKEN CLOUDS LESS THAN 5000 FTTEMPERATURES

RECORD HIGH 91FAVERAGE HIGH 52FAVERAGE LOW 33FRECORD LOW -2FAVERAGE RH DAY 63%NIGHT 88%

PRECIPITATIONRECORD MONTHLY - 3.5 INCHES (MAR)1 INCH OF SNOW PER MONTH LOWLANDSMORE SNOW HIGHER ELEV. UP TO 7 FTAVERAGE MONTHLY - 1.1 INCHES

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Weather Forecast

MAR22 MAR23 MAR24 MAR25 MAR26

55/38 57/37 63/38 66/40 63/41

10%P 40%P 10%P 10%P 10%P

Sunny AM rain Sunny P/Cloudy P/Cloudy

Chm (+) (-) (+) (+) (+)

Air (+) (-) (+) (+) (+)

ISR (+) (-) (+) (+) (+)

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Weather Forecast

MAR27 MAR28 MAR29 MAR30

63/41 60/41 54/43 59/41

0%P 10%P 60%P 60%P

P/Cloudy Cloudy Showers Showers

Chm (+) (+) (-) (-)

Air (+) (+) (-) (-)

ISR (-) (-) (-) (-)

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00L 06L 12L 18L 24L

FAVORABLE MARGINAL UNFAVORABLE

GROUND RECCE

HELO ATTACK

PERSONNEL

OVHD RECON

AIRLIFT

UAV

CHEM

SMOKE

TRAFFICABILITY

CAS

AIR ASSAULT

Weather Effects / Not Considering Terrain

CEILING/VISIBILITY

CEILING/VISIBILITY/ICING

VISIBILITY

CEILING/ VISIBILITY

CLOUD COVER

WIND DEPENDENT

CEILING/VISIBILITY/ICING

MARGINAL IF HEAVY RAINFALL/SNOW MELT

WIND DEPENDENT

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CRITICAL FACTS

- AH is prepositioning forces along the border with AZ and occupying attack

positions (EUCOM)

- Can support OSC-E attack with 4 x DIVs with supporting IFC and Air

-AH has already deployed 20 x SCUDs and 8 x Shehab missiles; most probably

armed with Sarin gas(EUCOM)

- AH forces have deployed mobile missile launchers near the NW part of the city of

SALMAS; can range all of AZ and parts of GE/TR from all firing positions in AH

-Al Hussein variant of SCUD takes only five gallons of Sarin (AH variant RFId to

JTF)

- Chemical capabilities: AH is producing Sarin gas in chemical production facilities in

the southern city of QAZVIN

- AH forces are no longer engaged in hostilities with Iran

- AH internal opposition has been neutralized; suspension of internal media;

imposition of Sharia law

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CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS

- AH Forces capable of launching offensive operations into AZ NET

290001Z13MAR

- AH will disperse TELs for firing and, after launch, then move/use CC&D

- AH strategic targets include AZ infrastructure (with WMD)

- SAPA and AH SPF operational targets include assembly areas and command centers i.e.

airfields, JTF C-2, aircraft, SPODs, basing areas, logistics convoys, oilfields, pipelines

- AH will protect TELs with mutually supporting air defense coverage

- AH will insert SPF into rear areas approx. 24 hours prior to conventional invasion

- AH will commit TBMs and accept risk in air operations to achieve air parity

- AH will threaten use of chemical munitions against JTF forces and regional countries

- SAPA will conduct SR of terrain objectives and counter-reconnaissance missions to

target SOF teams locations and identify missions/objectives

- AH will attempt to seize Baku and oil fields as primary objective

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LIMITATIONS

Poor ability to track TELs following dispersal; subordinate units have less

capability

Undeveloped HUMINT network, country-wide (Mahmudali Chehregani)

COMEUCOM approves cross-border R&S

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IMPLIED TASKS

Detect/ track SSM FOBs

Coordinate with JTF/JIACG to establish detainee facility; BPT to temporarilydetain PUCs

Coordinate for interpreter support

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RISK TO SOF

Air infil/exfil, PR- AH IADS (overlapping coverage of Air AAs and HLZ/DZs)

Collateral damage from attacks on Qazvin chemical production facility

SAPA interdiction of SOF airfields in AZ

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18

XX

XX

84

IFC

XX

58

XX

88

S

S

S

S

SS

S

SAPA Attacks

AZ DEF

Forces

XX

- 4x DIVs: 2 x up,

2 x back

- ME: (Est.d) East

coast towards

oilfields and Baku

- SE: Screens ME

western flank

- SAPA support

with SPF

AH ATTACK MLCOA

MDCOA: Chem

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AH CONVENTIONAL FORCES CURRENT DISPOSITION

(17 MAR 2013)

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ADA Current Disposition

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AH IADS Coverage- North

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AH IADS Coverage

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Maximum Range, kms

Air Defense System Ranges

VerticalMaximumRa

nge,

kms

SA-15

MR: 12 km

MA: 6 km

SA-18

MR: 6 km

MA: 3.5 km

2S6M

MR: 10 km

MA: 3.5 km

SA-16/

SA-13 MR: 5 kmMA:3.5 km

Maximum Range = MR

Maximum Altitude = MA

CROTALE

MR: 8 km

MA: 5.5 km

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Maximum Range, kms

VerticalMaximumR

an

ge,

kms

SA-6

MR: 25 km

MA: 14 km

SA-12

MR:75 km

MA: 25 km

SA-11

MR: 35 km

MA: 15 km

SA-10

MR: 200 km

MA:30 km

Maximum Range = MR

Maximum Altitude = MA

KS-19:

MR: 12 km

MA: 9.6 km

SA-8

MR: 15 km

MA:12 km

Air Defense System Ranges

ENEMY Ai C t Di iti t i fi ld

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ENEMY Air Current Disposition at airfields

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X

AIR / TBM CAPABILITY

II II II

37/38/39

6XSS1C/

SCUD

6XSS1C/

SCUD

6XSS1C/

SCUD

SCUD (3 x Brigades)AIR

20 FIXED WING

SORTIES/DAY

18 x SCUD B

18 x SCUD C

18 x SHEHAB-3

Impact

SCUDAIR

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Air Force Attack Aircraft

System Total *Radius-km Armament

MiG-29 30 2450 6 Air-Air Missiles (AAMs)

MiG-31 24 1650 6 AAMsLightning 45 685 2 500lb bombs, 2 rockets & 2 AAMs

Zenith 15 1650 8 AAMs or 8 1,000lb precision bombs

F6 15 1100 2 500lb bombs & 2 AAMs

F-7M 45 550 2 AAMs

Su-25 20 1250 8 1,000lb bombs & 2 AAMs

Su-24 20 2000 9 2,000 lb bombs and anti-shipTu-22 12 2450 12 2,000lb bombs

A = Attack

F = Fighter

I = Interceptor

S = Strike

B = Bomber

R = Recon *Radius = one-way of round-tripwithout air refueling

13

15 x Lightning

S

15

15 x Zenith

F

19

15 x F6

F

15 x F-7M

16S

WOC: Tabriz1

F

10

12 x MiG-31

S

12

12 x MiG-31

S

14

15 x Lightning

S

15 x F-7M

17S

15 x F-7M

18S

I

1

15 x MiG-29 15 x MiG-29

I

11

WOC: Rasht2

A

21

20 x Su-25

A

22

15 x Lightning

A

31

10 x Su-24

F-B

WOC: Hamadan3

B

32

12 x Tu-22

B

5R

51

10 x Su-24

R

SCUD/TBM Current Disposition

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SCUD/TBM Current Disposition

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SSM Ranges

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 50 70 100 200 300 kms

Scud B

Scud C

Shehab 3

120 kms

300 kms

SCUD

1300 kms

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/theater/r-11_b9.jpg

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AH TBM Threat2 BDE

6 BN (FOB)12 Cranes

12 Weather Vehicles12 C 2 Vehicles27 Launchers

50 Missiles

Critical VulnerabilityCranes & C2 Vehicles

Time LineHide Launch - Hide = 1 HourFOBs in place = 24/48 Hours

Reload 1-2 Hours

FOBRL RL

RL

H

H

H

L

L

L

FOB = C2 HQRL = Reload

H = Hide

L = Launch

SCUD-C and NO-DONG

Doctrinal TBM Template

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/theater/r-11_b9.jpghttp://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/theater/r-11_b9.jpghttp://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/theater/r-11_b9.jpghttp://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/theater/r-11_b9.jpghttp://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/theater/r-11_b9.jpghttp://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/theater/r-11_b9.jpg

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Chemical production site complex in the city of QAZVIN

- Building plans

- Security systems- Enemy ground and air strength, composition, weapons, response time

- Intel on site security - human (guards, military), intrusion detection / early -

warning devices, obstacles, reinforcements

TBM Sites and chemical production(current location in the city of SALMAS)

-Location, composition, activity

- HQ, resupply, transloader

-AD coverage and force protection

-Deception

Insertions:

- Intel supportability of ground infil

- Status (feasibility / suitability) of airfields and HLZs (IADs, mines, etc.)

TARGET DEVELOPMENT

Salmasx

AH

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Chemical Plant QAZVIN

Known nerve gas production site under Iranian control

AH has capability to produce weaponized nerve gas

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Situation Assessment: Qazvin

DTG: 20MAR2013SOURCE: National Intelligence

NORMAL POPULATION: 200,000 Azeri, 120,000 Kurd, 10,000 Persian; 330,000 total

CURRENT POPULATION: About 350,000

ROAD/RAIL CONDITIONS: Major roads and rail lines are intact. Secondary roads are in fair condition but

difficult to travel in rainy season.FOOD DISTRIBUTION: No reports of shortages of Food supplies.

HOUSING STATUS: Indications of over crowding in some suburban areas

ELECTRICAL GRID. Has the largest electrical production capacity in Ahurastan. Main power feeds follow the

trace of the highway up to Tabriz. Some brownouts observed.

MAJOR BUILDINGS: Some damage from past earthquakes has not been repaired.

WATER AND SANITATION: Reports of raw sewage in low lying regions in the more crowded areas of the city.

MEDICAL SERVICES: No information available.

EMERGENCY SERVICES: No information available.LAW ENFORCEMENT: No information available.

AIRFIELD: Working condition C-17 capable

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SCUD LaunchersSCUD

launchers

parked near

Salmas

before

dispersal

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Dissident Analysis

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Dissident AnalysisKDPA (AH) SANAM Mugan Military wing of Taylsh

Leader Mustava Hijri Cherengalli Ali Humbatov

Goal Independent Mahabad

Republic (Ahurastan

provinces of West AZ &

Kurdestan)

Regime change

Wants AH as semi-

autonomous region in

Iran for econ

prosperity

Separate state for Taylsh clan (in so. AZ &

no. AH)

Support

LiaisonBorders

Iraq border

Support from PUK (brokewith KDP)

Along AZ/AH border

Russian support viaArmenia

No longer supports SAPA (unconfirmed)

Along Caspian Sea

Assets Approx 10.5K KDPI

Other affil w/ Shikak

Confederacy 100 house

=10-20 peshmerga

Several 20-25PAX

militia

Several OSC-E key

leaders

(Influence increasesw/time.. P(coup) incr)

BN (3 companies)

Squad-size militia in almost all villages

Much local support

No more SAPA support makes OSC-E

eastern AA difficult

Issue

Liability

Support PKK in Turkey

TU fears greater

Kurdestan

KDPI and Talysh

territory claims from

AH

Taylsh state would take territory from AZ &

AH

Value Occupies SCUD region

(including Salmas)

Can influence OSC-E

commanders

Opposes SAPA; makes OSC-E eastern

axis of advance more difficult

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KDP/PUK/KDPI AOs

KDPI

Ahurastan

ODA 051 & NILE

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RECOMMENDED PIRs / IRs

PIRs

1. When will AH conduct an attack into AZ?

2. Will AH utilize WMD (TBM or chem) against AZ or regional countries?3. What are the locations of the TBM FOBs?

4. Where and how will SAPA conduct operations to restrict mobility on

coalition AAs?

IRsWhere are AMCITs and allies (potential NEO operation)? Where will AH insert SPF into AZ?

Which parts of the AZ population will offer active or tacit support SAPA/AH?

AH Strategic and Operational Capabilities Overview

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AH Strategic and Operational Capabilities Overview

Capabilities Strategic - SSM Capable (operational fires), Unconventional Warfare Operational- F-W Deep Strike capable of Combined Arms (shortduration), Rotary Wing (operational lift/ ATK), and IADS capable

Strengths Strategic - Populace Support, Insurgency Forces established Operational- Conventional military is well-trained; modern equipment

Weaknesses

Strategic - C2 for long term offensive operations Operational - Logistics to refit 1st tier forces, Reserve forces 2 monthsto organize, Limited deep strike capable

Other Strategic Familiar with the terrain, population, language, culture Operational Led by previous Iranian Western Commander, trained byIran in Iranian doctrine

Center of Gravity: National leadership

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ISR Assets Available

JTF-C

UAV

National

RC-135V (RJ) U2

JSTARS

EP-3 UAV (GH + Pred)

OGAs

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JSOTF J-2 RFIs/Issues

Is it possible to deploy SFODAs through

Iran, north into AH?

Will the JTF establish a Joint Detention

Facility?

Can JTF provide UAV coverage forJSOTFs ISR mission to locate TMBs?

Can JTF allocate U-2 sorties for us to

locate TELs?

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QUESTIONS

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BACKUP SLIDES

MilitaryF h d K i

SAPA Military Component

Front = Regiment C2 influence

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Military

HeadquartersFarhad Karimov

Logistics/ Training Front Igor Smernoff

SAPA Cadre Training Center

SAPA Safe House

SAPA Cadre

SAPA Insurgent Camp

in Azerbailan 1 Confirmed

Template 35 additional

Camps

Force Protection

Assessment

Training

Logistics/ Transportation

SAPA Camps EST. consist of

25-70 members Training 25 to

150 Combatants

SAPA Cadre Camps are unconfirmed

& remain un-located, indicators from

SIGINT and HUMINT assess that the

SAPA has SAP for training its most

dedicated informants, cadre and

leadership inside Azerbailan-Currently intelligence suggests there

is at least 2 camps in operation.

Staff

Adigozal Jamilov Insurgent Operations Front

Recently promoted fromInsurgent Regional Commander

Tiem Maliko Mikal Paridue

Staka Ishma

Chechgan Polin

Region 1

Bardar Column

Region 2

Bilasuvar Column

Region 3

Sadval Column

Baku Battalion

Mobile Urban Unit

Agar Cragshilov

NK Column

Company

50+ PAX

Intel cell

Logistics cell

Information Cell

1 x Leader3-4 x Logistics Spec

1 x Leader3-4 x Intel Spec

1 x Leader2-3 x Info Spec1-2 x Civic Action Spec

1 x Leader3-4 x Insurgents

1 x Leader6-10 x Insurgents

Insurgent

SquadDirect Action

Cell

1 x Commander

1 x Executive Officer

1 x Advisor/

Counselorx Insurgent

Insurgent

Platoon

Comm cell

1 x Deputy Commander2 x Advisor/Counselor2 x Admin Spec

Agar Bilisovec

Front = Regiment C2 influence

Column/ Region= Battalion C2 influence

District= Company

Platoon= Platoon

ANA is a less capable force, limited

surveillance and only small unit direct

action operations. The focus of the ANA

is to prepare for Phase 3 operations of

Maoist insurgency operations.

II

Ali Humbatov

Region 5

Mugan Column

II

II

II

II

II

Air Force Attack Aircraft

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Air Force Attack Aircraft

System Total *Radius-km Armament

MiG-29 30 2450 6 Air-Air Missiles (AAMs)

MiG-31 24 1650 6 AAMs

Lightning 45 685 2 500lb bombs, 2 rockets & 2 AAMs

Zenith 15 1650 8 AAMs or 8 1,000lb precision bombs

F6 15 1100 2 500lb bombs & 2 AAMs

F-7M 45 550 2 AAMs

Su-25 20 1250 8 1,000lb bombs & 2 AAMs

Su-24 20 2000 9 2,000 lb bombs and anti-shipTu-22 12 2450 12 2,000lb bombs

A = Attack

F = Fighter

I = Interceptor

S = Strike

B = BomberR = Recon *Radius = one-way of round-trip

without air refueling

13

15 x Lightning

S

15

15 x Zenith

F19

15 x F6

F

15 x F-7M

16S

WOC: Tabriz1

F

10

12 x MiG-31

S

12

12 x MiG-31

S

14

15 x Lightning

S

15 x F-7M

17S

15 x F-7M

18S

I

1

15 x MiG-29 15 x MiG-29

I

11

WOC: Rasht2

A

21

20 x Su-25

A

22

15 x Lightning

A

31

10 x Su-24

F-B

WOC: Hamadan3

B

32

12 x Tu-22

B

5R

51

10 x Su-24

R

IFC d St t i

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IFCs and Strategic

IFC-E

X

3,4*100 Km

108 x SA-12

X

5,6*90 Km

36 x SA-10

X

11,12*36 Km

84 x SA-11

X21,22

23,

*12 Km

32 x SA-15

Strategic

X

3

36 x 9A52

*90 KmX

4

36 x WM-80

*80 Km

X

1

SS-21

*120 KmX

2

SCUD-B

*300 Km

X

8

II

1

*43 Km

18 x FADJR-3

II

2

*80 Km

18 x WM-80

X

40 x HIND-D16

5

X

2

II

24 x 2S3

3

II

24 x TYPE 83

1

II

24 x 2S5

24

X

243

II

18 x TYPE 83

TIER -2

242

II

18 x TYPE 83

241

II

18 x G5

IFC-W

2

X

21

II

16 x 2S5

6 x FADJR-3

X31,32

33,

*12 Km

72 x ZSU-23-4

ADA

22

II

16 x 2S5

6 x FADJR-3

23

II

16 x 2S5

6 x FADJR-3

II

81

*43 Km

18 x FADJR-3X

40 x HIND-D

17

25

X

253

II

18 x TYPE 83

TIER -2

252

II

18 x TYPE 83

251

II

18 x G5

II

482

*43 Km

12 x FADJR-3

X

48 TIER -2

483

*35 Km

12 x 9P140

II

II

481

*43 Km

12 x FADJR-3

TIER -2

SPF BDE

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Parachute

TEAM LEADER

ASSISTANT TEAM LEADER

2 X RADIO OPERATORS

2 X WEAPONS SPECIALISTS

2 DEMOLITION SPECIALISTS

4 X RECONNAISSANCE SPECIALSTS

2 PZF 3-T600

2 SA-18

SPF BDE

X 10

II II II

BDE

HQSPF SPT

SPF

TEAM

X

SPF

I

SPF

Parachute

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X

II

I

COMMANDO BDE

HQ

2 SA-18

HQ CMDO

CMDO

2 SA-18

WPNS

18 X PZF3-T600

3 X SA-18

3 X 82mm MORTAR

6 X RPG-29

6 X W-87

6 X AT-7

9 X SA-18

54 X PZF 3-T600

9 X SA-18

9 X 82mm MORTAR

18 X RPG-29

6 X W-876 X Gill

9 X SA-18

II

I

CMDO

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HQ

24 PERSONNEL

6 X Gill

18 X PERSONNEL

9 X SA-18

COMMANDO WPNS CO

AGL

30 X PERSONNEL

6 X W-87

ATSAM

6 X W-87

6 X Gill

9 X SA-18

I

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HQ

6 PERSONNEL

1 SA-18 45 X PERSONNEL

6 X PZF3T600

1 X SA-182 X RPG-29

COMMANDO COMPANY

WPNS

I

45 X PERSONNEL

3 X 82mm MORTAR

1 X SA-18

18 X PZF3T600

3 X SA-18

3 X 82mm MORTAR

6 X RPG-29

CO O OO

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2 X PZF3T600

10 X DISMOUNTED TROOPS

HQ

9 PERSONNEL

2 X RPG-29

1 X SA-18

45 X PERSONNEL

6 X PZF3T6001 X SA-18

2 X RPG-29

COMMANDO PLATOON

STRENGTHS / CAPABILITIES

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STRENGTHS / CAPABILITIES

OBJECTIVES

- Strategic: Seize AZ oil fields and control BAKU before U.S. TFPDD flow reverses departure

and returns to AZ

- Operational: Cross Kura and Araks River and bypass AZ units- Tactical: Supporting fires from OSC IFC; supporting air; direction of SAPA rear area activities;

deny use of POE to any returning US forces

COG

- Strategic: SCUDS / TBMs

- Operational: OSC IFC; Air

- Tactical: Conventional - Maneuverforces; UW - SPF and Commando units- AH Homeland COG: IADS

CULMINATING POINT:OSC-E and OSC-W denied river crossing of Araks and Kura; deniedaccess to oil fields and to Baku

STRENGTHS

SCUDS and TBM: Coverage over entire country of AZ except for SPODsCHEM: Sarin Gas on SCUD-Bs and SHAHAB-3s

Arty: Chem warhead delivery (130mm 27.5km, SCUDs)

SOF: Up to 120x SPF Teams (6-12x PAX) in Rear Area w/small arms, demo (recon; DA)

ADA: IADs

SAPA: Recon, Intel, Targeting

VULNERABILITIES AND WEAKNESSES

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WHAT AH MUST DO TO ACHIEVE SUCCESS:

-Attrit and bypass AZ military forces south of Araks and Kura Rivers

- Seize and Defend key terrain: Oil Fields- Delegitimize and/or defeat U.S. forces

LIMITATIONS:

- SCUDs: Vulnerable to IMINT detection when moving

Resource Requirements: Must resupply after ~60x days (Est) days

VULNERABILITIES AND WEAKNESSES

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10

AHURASTAN

IRAN

811

X

- AH chem weaponsmove to Salmas

- AH TBMs dispersing

west of Tabriz near

Salmas

- Indicators: AH is

moving chem warheadsto LU with Shahab-3

missiles and SCUDs

150015ZMAR13

XX

76

XX77

XX

64

XX

98

XX

78

821

X

X

831

SPECIFIED and IMPLIED TASKS

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SPECIFIED and IMPLIED TASKS

Coordinate with JTF-A for Collection support: All disciplines - National;

Targeting

Integration of EAC and Theater assets into collection plan for I&W and

targeting:

SIGINT (NSA); IMINT (NSA, NGIC); HUMINT (IA)

Targeting:

Coordinate with JTF-A and subordinate elements Deconflict with: IA; JTF-A (for adjacent JSOTF teams)

Need target fidelity with NRT intel inject for deep targets in AH

(SCUDs, chem threats)

Coordinate for language support: Interpreters - Farsi, Arabic

EPW: Coordinate for Interrogation Support; Coordinate for EPW evac

JSOAC Coordination:

Targeting; ATO

ISOPREPs