IVY TECH IN 2025: Reaching the Goal Robert E. Hoke Independent Consultant IVY TECH IN 2025: Reaching...

IVY TECH IN 2025:

Reaching the Goal

Robert E. Hoke

Independent Consultant

IVY TECH IN 2025:

Reaching the Goal

Robert E. Hoke

Independent Consultant

Outline of Presentation

Recap of the Big Goal

Historical Trends on Associate Degree Awarded

Projecting Future Degrees Awarded Based on Past Trends

Internal and External Factors that Will Affect Growth

Next Steps

Questions from the Floor

Recap of Big Goal

60% of Adults 25-64 will have earned a degree by 2025.

In 2008, 33.4% of Indiana adults ages 25-64 held at least a two-year degree.

If current trends continue, by 2025 an estimated 44.4% of the 25-64 adult population in Indiana will hold an associate degree or higher.

There will be a gap of 15.6% between projected number of adults with degrees and the goal of 60% of the adult population.

Gap = approximately 514,000 adults in Indiana in 2025 without a degree. (MHEC)

“By increasing production by 6,454 associate and bachelor’s degrees each year between now and 2025

– an annual increase of 6.3% – Indiana will reach the Big Goal.”

Lumina Foundation “A Stronger Nation Through Higher Education”

How many additional Ivy Tech associate degrees will be needed to reach the state goal?

75% of those 6,454 annual additional degrees need to be associate degrees. (State of Indiana)

Assumption that Ivy Tech will award all of those 4,840 additional associate degrees.

62,926 additional degrees beyond current projections between now and 2025.

HISTORICAL TRENDS RELATED TO IVY TECH ASSOCIATE DEGREES

Number of Ivy Tech Associate Degrees Grew by 322% between 1991/92 and 2010/11

Associate Degrees Awarded by Ivy Tech by Year

Number of Associate Degrees Award by Year

Year to Year Percentage Growth Rate in Associate Degrees

Which Historical Trend is Best Predictor of Future Degrees?

Annual Growth Rate

91/92 to 10/11: 6.46% (19 years)

96/97 to 10/11: 7.50% (15 years)

01/02 to 10/11: 10.59% (10 years)

06/07 to 10/11: 10.34% (5 years)

09/10 to 10/11: 20.29% (1 year)

Projection of Growth Based on Historical Trends

Projection of Growth Based on Annual Growth Since 91-92

6.46% Annual Growth Rate

Projection of Growth Based on Historical Trends

Calculating the Gap

Annual Growth

Rate

Number of Associate Degrees

Produced 2008-2025

Degrees Produced with 00-08 Annual State Growth

of 3.90 %

Projected Need for

Additional Degrees

Number of

Degrees Needed to Meet

GoalSurplus or

GAP

91-92 10-11 6.46% 212,452 178,721 62,926 241,647 -29,195

96-97 10-11 7.50% 228,471 178,721 62,926 241,647 -13,176

01-02 10-11 10.59% 285,685 178,721 62,926 241,647 44,038

06-07 10-11 10.34% 280,457 178,721 62,926 241,647 38,810

09-10 10-11 20.29% 608,488 178,721 62,926 241,647 366,841

Implications for Goal Setting and Strategies

Historic year-to-year growth has not been straight-line linear, e.g. two years of high growth followed by modest growth. Benchmarking intermediate goals will be important to deal with potential fluctuation in growth rates.

Circumstances and strategies that lead to tremendous recent growth may not be suitable for replication on an annual basis. The plan to reach the goal needs to include short-term strategies that provide almost immediate gains in degree attainment along with long-term strategies that will provide lasting momentum.

External forces such as migration, changes in social security and other retirement plans, and government policies may cause changes in the number of degrees required to reach 60% of the population. Ivy Tech needs to consider in advance how to address external pressure to increase internal targets and benchmarks.

EXTERNAL FACTORS TO CONSIDER

Photo Credit: United Way of Central Indiana and Trinity Wesleyan Child Care Ministry

Adult Population With Some College (Lumina)

Projection of High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity

Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity, 1992 to 2022.

Percentage of Population with at least 2-Year Degree (2008)

Source: Midwestern Higher Education Compact

Increased Diversity in the Last Decade in Children

Change in Child Population Under 18 by Race and Ethnicity, 2000-2010

Greater Diversity Among Children than Adults

Share of Indiana Population by Age Group, Race, and Ethnicity 2010

What’s Next?

What projected growth rate is the “right fit” for Ivy Tech?

What additional information is needed in order to make a logical projection for future growth?

What are the internal and external constraints that will affect Ivy Tech’s ability to grow at that rate?

Unpack the needed additional degrees by region and campus. What are the local conditions that need to be taken into account when developing goals for each region?

What strategies should be engaged?

What impact will other education institutions who offer associate degrees have on Ivy Tech’s ability to reach its goal?

Is Ivy Tech producing enough degrees in “high-growth” fields to meet the state’s current and future demands?

Potential Strategies and Benchmarks Categories

Enrollment

How can Ivy Tech best increase enrollment that will lead to an increased number of degrees awarded?

Persistence

What are some key strategies to increasing the number of students who stay on course to completing their degree?

Certificate Attainment

How can Ivy Tech develop a strategy around certificate attainment that leads to more degrees awarded?

QUESTIONSQUESTIONS

Contact Information:

Robert E. HokeIndependent [email protected]

IVY TECH IN 2025: Reaching the Goal Robert E. Hoke Independent Consultant IVY TECH IN 2025: Reaching...

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