IV. Defining Future Mobility Conditions projection numbers ......Scenario 3 combines road expansion...
5
Houston Mobility: Heights-Northside Study 35 IV. Defining Future Mobility Conditions 4.1 Travel Demand Forecasting The City of Houston and the Houston-Galveston Area Council (H-GAC), through an inter-local agreement, conducted the travel demand forecasting within the study area. The Travel Demand Model (the model) is a useful tool for comparing alternative transportation scenarios. The model assists in understanding the manner in which future population and employment will cause traffic to grow. The intent is to better understand the dynamics of a complex network of streets and to test what-if scenarios of different transportation solutions. The City, H-GAC, and the project team worked together to update the 2035 demographic forecasts. The updates included existing building permits, development trends, and traffic studies. Forecast Results - The Scenarios The study team created four initial scenarios for the Heights and Northside sub-areas. These scenarios were designed to test big ideas from local stakeholders, professional staff, and the consultant team. The different scenarios include: • Scenario 1 (Base Build-Out) • Scenario 2 (Couplets) • Scenario 3 (Capacity Projects) • Scenario 4 (High Frequency Transit) • Scenario 5 (Recommendations) The scenarios were analyzed individually to allow for a comparison between different concepts. Ultimately, a combined scenario (Scenario 5) represents final recommendations the project team feels are realistic for implementation. The provided descriptions below demonstrate what modifications were made within each Scenario. To view final 2035 projection numbers associated with each Scenario, see Appendix E: Travel Demand Model Results. Scenario 1 (Base Build-Out) The Base Model scenario assumes the full development of all Major Thoroughfares and Major Collectors as identified in the 2013 MTFP. The effects of such recommendations on traffic volumes and congestion levels were evaluated in this scenario. The map of this scenario is found in Figure 4.1. Scenario 2 (Couplets) Heights’ area stakeholders requested that 19th/20th Street as well as Heights Boulevard/ Yale Street be tested as potential couplet pairings. Where excess capacity resulted, stakeholders requested a wider pedestrian realm and safer, buffered bike facilities. The map of this scenario is shown in Figure 4.2. Scenario 3 (Capacity Projects) Scenario 3 combines road expansion (as designated by the MTFP) and street reduction projects. The intent was to create a network that safely and reasonably supported a variety of mobility uses. This model is a more financially feasible option than the Base Model Scenario. The map of this scenario is found in Figure 4.3.
Transcript of IV. Defining Future Mobility Conditions projection numbers ......Scenario 3 combines road expansion...
Houston Mobility: Heights-Northside Study 35
IV. Defining Future MobilityConditions
4.1 Travel Demand ForecastingThe City of Houston and the Houston-Galveston Area Council (H-GAC), through an
inter-local agreement, conducted the travel demand forecasting within the study area. The
Travel Demand Model (the model) is a useful tool for comparing alternative transportation
scenarios. The model assists in understanding the manner in which future population and
employment will cause traffic to grow. The intent is to better understand the dynamics
of a complex network of streets and to test what-if scenarios of different transportation
solutions.
The City, H-GAC, and the project team worked together to update the 2035 demographic
forecasts. The updates included existing building permits, development trends, and traffic
studies.
Forecast Results - The ScenariosThe study team created four initial scenarios for the Heights and Northside sub-areas.
These scenarios were designed to test big ideas from local stakeholders, professional
staff, and the consultant team. The different scenarios include:
• Scenario 1 (Base Build-Out)
• Scenario 2 (Couplets)
• Scenario 3 (Capacity Projects)
• Scenario 4 (High Frequency Transit)
• Scenario 5 (Recommendations)
The scenarios were analyzed individually to allow for a comparison between different
concepts. Ultimately, a combined scenario (Scenario 5) represents final recommendations
the project team feels are realistic for implementation. The provided descriptions below
demonstrate what modifications were made within each Scenario. To view final 2035
projection numbers associated with each Scenario, see Appendix E: Travel Demand Model
Results.
Scenario 1 (Base Build-Out)The Base Model scenario assumes the full development of all Major Thoroughfares and
Major Collectors as identified in the 2013 MTFP. The effects of such recommendations
on traffic volumes and congestion levels were evaluated in this scenario. The map of this
scenario is found in Figure 4.1.
Scenario 2 (Couplets)Heights’ area stakeholders requested that 19th/20th Street as well as Heights Boulevard/
Yale Street be tested as potential couplet pairings. Where excess capacity resulted,
stakeholders requested a wider pedestrian realm and safer, buffered bike facilities. The
map of this scenario is shown in Figure 4.2.
Scenario 3 (Capacity Projects)Scenario 3 combines road expansion (as designated by the MTFP) and street reduction
projects. The intent was to create a network that safely and reasonably supported a variety
of mobility uses. This model is a more financially feasible option than the Base Model
Scenario. The map of this scenario is found in Figure 4.3.
36 Houston Mobility: Heights-Northside Study
Scenario 4 (High Frequency Transit)Scenario 4: This high frequency transit scenario included transit routes which factored
in public input, population growth, job growth, activity centers, and connectivity to other
destinations (such as downtown or the Galleria). The increase in service was modeled by
doubling the service frequency during the peak hours. Non-peak hour headways were also
increased slightly. Ultimately, however, METRO is responsible for the frequency and stop
locations of all City bus routes. The map of this scenario is found in Figure 4.4.
Scenario 5 (Recommendations)These four scenarios were analyzed separately and compared to the 2035 Base Model
as provided by H-GAC (with the new 2035 demographics previously discussed). Scenario
results were then taken to stakeholders for feedback. The provided input and the project
team’s analysis were combined to create Scenario 5. The result is a network of corridors
that acknowledges the need for the expansion as well as the reduction of certain corridors
(Scenario 3), increased High Frequency Transit Options (Scenario 4), and the completion
of key east-west and north-south corridors as depicted on the Major Thoroughfare and
Freeway Plan (Scenario 1). The map is found in Figure 4.5.
Houston Mobility: Heights-Northside Study 37
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Scenario 1 - Build OutInner West Loop Boundary
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Scenario 2 - Potential CoupletsInner West Loop Boundary
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Figure 4.2 SCenario 2: CouPletS
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Scenario 4 - High Frequency Transit CorridorsInner West Loop Boundary
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Figure 4.4 SCenario 4: high FrequenCy tranSitFigure 4.3 SCenario 3: CaPaCity ProJeCtS
38 Houston Mobility: Heights-Northside Study
14th ST
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Scenario 5 - Recommended Improvements by 2035Inner West Loop Boundary
Heights Boundary
Northwest Boundary
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Figure 4.5: SCenario 5 - reCoMMendationS
Houston Mobility: Heights-Northside Study 39
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