ITRS may in the future provide Research Guidance by defining better Innovation Questions for R&D...
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Transcript of ITRS may in the future provide Research Guidance by defining better Innovation Questions for R&D...
ITRS may in the future provide Research Guidance by defining
better “Innovation” Questions” for R&D
ITRS Maastricht04/07/06
2
Source: Siemens
The engine of our industry : The exceptional shrinking price of microelectronics products
The engine of our industry : The exceptional shrinking price of microelectronics products
Price of 1 Megabit of Si Memory
75 000 euros
5 000 euros
400 euros
120 euros
30 euros
5 euros0,5 euro
0,05 euro1973
1977
19811984
19871990
19952000
0,01 euro
2003
‘Post-it’
Thanks to « classical scaling »
No need for economics : the smaller, the better
3
Gordon Moore, 1965Gordon Moore, 1965““Reduced cost is one of the big Reduced cost is one of the big attractions of integrated attractions of integrated electronics, and the cost electronics, and the cost advantage continues to increase advantage continues to increase as the technology evolves as the technology evolves toward the production of larger toward the production of larger and larger circuit functions on a and larger circuit functions on a single semiconductor substrate.”single semiconductor substrate.”Electronics, Volume 38, Electronics, Volume 38, Number 8, April 19, 1965Number 8, April 19, 1965
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“Simplified” Transistor Roadmap
65nm 45nm 32nm 22nm2007 2009 2012
PDSOI FDSOI
2015
bulk
stressors + substrateengineering
+ high µmaterials
MuGFETMuCFET
elec
tro
stat
ic c
on
tro
lSiON
poly
high k
metal
gate stack
planar 3D
Source: European Nanoelectronics Initiative Advisory Council (ENIAC)
5
Food for thought
“Moore’s Law and its continuance is an economic rather than a technical statement” (Bernard Meyerson, chief technologist for IBM’s Systems & Technology Group). “Clock frequency is not the driver of system performance. You can get a better result by making tradeoffs to balance numerous aspects of performance” (Bernard Meyerson) Classical Scaling -- the glue that connected Moore’s Law to performance – replaced by “equivalent scaling”.
6
Pursuing the race for added value for the end customerCombining on chip ULSI and out of the chip integration
More than Moore: DiversificationM
ore
Mo
ore
: M
inia
turi
zati
on
Combining SoC and SiP: Higher Value SystemsBas
elin
e C
MO
S:
CP
U, M
emo
ry, L
og
icBiochips
SensorsActuators
HVPower
Analog/RF Passives
130nm
90nm
65nm
45nm
32nm
22nm...V
Information Processing
Digital contentSystem-on-chip
(SoC)
Interacting with people and environment
Non-digital contentSystem-in-package
(SiP)
Beyond CMOS
2005 edition
7
The blurring nature of products
What is it ?A phone ?A camera ?A PDA ?
What makes its value ?
8
From R&D to R-I-D (Hatchuel & Weil)
R&DR : Answering the questions asked
Good if able to solve the issues it was requested to solveD : Fine tuning the process / product
Who asks the right questions ?In a stable environment, no need to look for new questions
R-I-DIn a changing environment : need for ”I” function
“I” for InnovationDefining the questions to be solved by the “R”
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What does it mean for ITRS ?
ITRS goalProvide research guidance for the industry
In the pastSmaller was better, and cheaper We didn’t need an explicit economic model to tell us which research was useful No need for “I”ITRS role : identify the red brick walls
TodaySystem performance no longer purely commanded by device performanceMore Moore and More than MooreWhat will bring more value to the end user ?
Need for “I”Natural role of ITRS : Defining the questions to be solved by the “R”
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How to achieve that ?Proposed Approach: assessment of the potential value return from research topicsPossible paths
Characterizing new non-scaling dimensions (More than Moore) by parameters that could be used for value assessment
e.g. Inductors, MEMS/NEMS, …
Seek feedback from pre-competitive consortia like SMT, IMEC, SELETE, etc.Possible TWG involvement preparation/proposals for July ITRS
Assy & Packaging : System integration white paperExtension of Design TWG roadmap / system drivers (example Automotive HV power, Sensors) Link PIDS / Design (extending MASTAR to system level)Optical InterconnectRF Wireless … Additional ideas are welcome.
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Backup
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IRC Plenary (Misc. 1)Other IRC Plenary Communication ITEMS:
Publication Arrangements CD and Book by RegionLinda Wilson only handling the “free” hardcopies by Region – need quantity by Region (limited number – 60 copies USA (trade for CDs)) Order Hard copies - $160? plus shipping and handling all directly with JEITA Office (limited quantity!)Order Copies ship from Japan (coordinated by JEITACD (plus Exec Summary – available when?) - $25 nominal cost (still too high?) plus shipping and handlingLinda produce Master copy to each region and make their own copies only for internal to Region to ITRS supporters
Domestic Regional TWG Composition/Membership Guidelines (Patrick Cogez foil)
Old Recommendation for domestic TWG guidance presently from Linda Wilson, (USA-based 1990’s -based) guideline of 7 recognized members Managed by Domestic TWG Chairman - Voting by consensus based on equitable distributionNeed Revised Region-variable guidelines (USA, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Europe)
Not mandatory “official” guidelines, but recommendations to balance consensus influence
Need to also discuss at next IRC telecon to update distribution list guidelinesHow to include emerging regions, such as membership in Worldwide Semiconductor Council (WSC); and identify approval process for actual members for invitation-only communication email by Linda Wilson
iNEMI Semiconductor Roadmap Chapter Draft (2005 ITRS Exec Summary Re-edit) due May 18th Final Draft Sept’06, publish APEX Feb’07
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IRC Plenary (Misc. 2)IEEE & iNEMI Roadmaps
IEEE Nano-electronics Standards Roadmap in 5/18 New York – Contact Nathan Tinker/IEEE (Paolo follow up)
Reed Semiconductor International - Online Conference - doneApr 18-20
4bits/Flash cellSaifun / Spansion EE Times publication “45nm” 4bits/cell production 2008PIDS Table 43a 4bits/cell after 2010Alan add to ORTC Tables and Flash Model beginning 2008 as a proposal
Timing 2007 ITRS Meetings (Europe SEMICON move out Jun’07, Oct’08?)
ITRS will be held April 23, 24 in FranceAEC/APC during preceding week 4/18-20 Dresden; other potential meetings in preceding week: INC3 Europe or IMEC review week)]
USA – SEMICON USA July 9th or 16th Japan – SEMICON Japan end of November, beginning December
Wireless not present in Vaalsbroek – need earlier communication - AR Wireless/Huang
Important cross-iTWG issues – iTWGs should communicate with Wireless TWG via Telecon in 2Q06?Need to confirm attendance ahead of USA SEMICON ITRS meeting time to inform all iTWGs.