ITD Cementation, 2Q CY 2013

7/27/2019 ITD Cementation, 2Q CY 2013

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Y/E December ( ` cr) 2QCY13 2QCY12 % chg. (yoy) 1QCY12 % chg. (qoq)Total operating income 334 332 0.6 355 (5.8)Operating profit 39 41 (4.6) 35 11.6OPM (%) 11.7 12.3 (64)bp 9.8 182bpAdj. PAT 5 6 (27.7) 6 (17.0)

For 2QCY2013, ITD Cementation reported a mixed set of numbers. The revenueof the company for the quarter was flat on a yoy basis to ` 334cr, 6.7% lower thanour estimate of ` 358cr. The company's operating margin contracted by 64bp yoy to 11.7%. However, it was ahead of our estimate of 10.2%, mainly because of

lower-than-expected raw material cost as a percentage of net sales. Debt for HY2013increased substantially to ` 707cr, leading to a higher interest outgo of ` 27cr for2QCY2013. The tax expense for the quarter was at a mere ` 0.04cr. Consequently,the company reported a net profit of ` 5cr, ahead of our estimate of ` 3cr.

Current year to be muted, order backlog to drive revenue in CY2014EThe company has an order backlog of ~ ` 4000cr as on date (closing order bookfor CY2012 stood at ` 2,891cr), executable over a period of two years. In CY2013the JV of ITD Cementation with its parent company, ITD, bagged new ordersworth ` 1,348cr and ITD Cementation (standalone) bagged orders worth~ ` 215cr. The order book to sales for the company is expected to improve to~2.4 for both CY2013E and CY2014E. However, considering the delayed

execution of the projects due to slowdown in economy and various policy concerns, we expect the revenue growth to be muted this year but rebound to10% for CY2014E. As a result we expect the company to post a revenue CAGR of7.5% over CY201214E to ` 1,502cr.

Outlook and valuation We expect the companys revenue to post a 7.5% CAGR over CY201214E to ` 1,502cr. The operating margin for the company is expected to hover around11.0% for the same period resulting in the net profit growing at a CAGR of 21.1%over CY2012-14E at ` 32cr. We remain positive on the companys outlook;however, delay in project execution remains a concern. We maintain our Buyrecommendation on the stock with a revised target price of ` 194 with a target

P/BV of 0.5x for CY2014E.

Key financials (Standalone)Y/E Dec. ( ` cr) CY2010 CY2011 CY2012 CY2013E CY2014E

Net sales 1,057 1,283 1,300 1,365 1,502% chg 8.7 21.4 1.3 5.0 10.0Adj. net profit 9 23 22 21 32% chg 72.0 146.2 (2.5) (4.5) 53.5OPM (%) 9.2 10.6 12.1 10.9 11.2EPS ( ` ) 7.9 19.6 19.1 18.2 28.0P/E (x) 19.9 8.1 8.3 8.7 5.7P/BV (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4

RoE (%) 2.6 6.1 5.6 5.1 7.4RoCE (%) 7.5 10.1 11.8 10.9 12.0EV/Sales (x) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5EV/EBITDA (x) 6.5 5.5 4.7 5.1 4.7

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of August 12, 2013

BUYCMP ` 158Target Price ` 194Investment Period 12 Months

Stock Info

Sector

Debt 640

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 69.6MF / Banks / Indian Fls 2.8

FII / NRIs / OCBs 0.8

Indian Public / Others 26.8

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex (6.0) 6.8 2.7

ITD cementation (12.6) (25.8) (37.6)

Nifty 5,612

Reuters Code ITCM.BO

ITCE IN

Face Value ( ` ) 10

BSE Sensex 18,947

52 Week High / Low 276/131

Avg. Daily Volume 2,375

Beta 0.3

Infrastructure

Market Cap ( ` cr) 182

Tejashwini Kumari022-39357800 Ext: [email protected]

ITD Cementation India

Performance highlights

2QCY2013 Result Update | Infrastructure August 13, 2013


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ITD Cementation India | 2QCY2013 Result Update

August 13, 2013 2

Exhibit 1: 1QCY2013 performance (Standalone)Y/E Dec. ( ` cr) 2QCY13 2QCY12 % chg. (yoy) 1QCY12 % chg. (qoq) HY2013 HY2012 % chg

Total operating income 334 332 0.6 355 (5.8) 689 716 (3.8)

Net raw material 106 124 (14.8) 128 (17.3) 233 272 (14.3)(% of Sales) 31.6 37.3 36.0 33.9 38.0

Employee cost 40 35 15.9 41 (2.9) 81 68 19.8(% of Sales) 12.0 10.4 11.6 11.8 9.5

Other Expenses 149 133 12.6 151 (0.9) 300 286 5.0(% of Sales) 44.7 40.0 42.5 43.6 39.9

Total expenditure 295 291 1.3 320 (7.7) 615 626 (1.8)

Operating profit 39 41 (4.6) 35 11.6 74 90 (18)

OPM (%) 11.7 12.3 (64) 9.8 182 10.7 12.6 (184)

Interest 27 25 7.0 26 3.0 52 51 1.7Depreciation 8 9 (3.4) 8 5.9 16 17 (5.1)

Other income 1 5 (86.3) 7 (90.5) 7 6 15.6PBT 5 12 (60.9) 8 (39.9) 12 28 (55.0)

(% of Sales) 1.4 3.6 2.2 1.8 3.9

Tax 0 6 (99.3) 2 (98.2) 2 9 (75.9)(% of PBT) 0.9 46.3 28.2 17.9 33.5

Reported PAT 5 6 (27.7) 6 (17.0) 10 18 (44.2)

PATM (%) 1.4 1.9 1.6 1.5 2.6

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: Actual vs. Angel estimate (2QCY2013)

Actual ( ` cr) Estimate ( ` cr) % variationTotal operating income 334 358 (6.7)

Operating profit 39 37 6.2

OPM (%) 11.7 10.2 142bp

Adj. PAT 5 3 66.8


Revenue disappointed, operating margin ahead of estimates

The revenue for the quarter came in at ` 334cr, 6.7% lower than our expectation of ` 358cr. It was flat on a yoy basis and declined by 5.8% on a qoq basis. On a yoy

basis, the operating margin contracted marginally by 64bp. However, it cameahead of our estimate of 10.2% on account of lower than expected raw materialcost as a percent of net sales.

The tax outgo for the quarter was at a mere ` 0.04cr, against our estimate of ` 2cr,as the revenue from the orders executed with JVs were net of tax. The debt level ason June 30, 2013 for the company is ` 707cr leading to an interest cost of ` 27cr.Consequently, the bottom-line stood at ` 5cr against our estimate of ` 3cr.


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August 13, 2013 3

Exhibit 3: Revenue flat on yoy basis


Exhibit 4: Operating margin ahead of estimates


3 3 5

2 9 2

3 2 7

3 8 4

3 3 2

2 7 1

3 1 3 3

5 5

3 3 4

31.4

18.0

7.311.5

(0.7)

(7.3)(4.0)

(7.6)

0.6

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

0

100

200

300

400

500

2 Q C Y 1 1

3 Q C Y 1 1

4 Q C Y 1 1

1 Q C Y 1 2

2 Q C Y 1 2

3 Q C Y 1 2

4 Q C Y 1 2

1 Q C Y 1 3

2 Q C Y 1 3

( % )

( ` c r

)

Revenue (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)

3 2

3 3

4 4

4 9

4 1

3 4

3 3

3 5

3 9

9.4

11.4

13.5 12.8 12.3 12.7

10.5 9.811.7

0

3

6

9

12

15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2 Q C Y 1 1

3 Q C Y 1 1

4 Q C Y 1 1

1 Q C Y 1 2

2 Q C Y 1 2

3 Q C Y 1 2

4 Q C Y 1 2

1 Q C Y 1 3

2 Q C Y 1 3

( % )

( ` c r

)

EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA Margin (RHS)


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August 13, 2013 4

Investment arguments

Strong order book to drive revenue in CY2014E

The company has an order backlog of ~ ` 4000cr as on date (closing order bookfor CY2012 stood at ` 2,891cr), executable over a period of two years.

Till now in CY2013, the JV of ITD Cementation with its parent company, ITD,has bagged new orders of ` 546cr and ` 752cr from Delhi Metro RailCorporation (DMRC). It also has an order worth ~ ` 50cr for water supply in

Agartala.

Also, ITD Cementation (standalone) bagged order worth ~ ` 115cr inGhaziabad for the construction of flyovers and projects worth ~ ` 100cr onspecialist engineering works of piling, civil works for power plant, watertreatment plant etc.

We expect the company to post a slow revenue CAGR of 7.5% over CY2012-14Edue to delayed execution of projects and various regulatory concerns. The orderbook to sales for the company is expected to improve to ~2.4 for both CY2013Eand CY2014E.

Exhibit 5: Order Book break-up


Exhibit 6: Order book to sales to improve in CY2014E


Softening of interest rate to improve bottom-line

We expect the interest outgo to be flat for CY2013E. However, in CY2014E, weexpect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut interest rates to boost economicgrowth. Hence, we expect interest outgo for the company to reduce to ` 99cr inCY2014E, adding directly to the bottom-line, which is expected to be ` 32cr.

Foray into the industrial segment long-term growth driver

The company had forayed into the industrial and power segments in 1HCY2012. Itis currently very cautious in taking orders in the power segment due to theregulatory and financial issues involved. However, the company sees a hugepotential in the industrial segment. The company currently has 3 small orders,totaling ~30-40cr in this segment, but it expects revenue inflow of ~400-500cr inthe coming 3-4years. The segment being a high-margin segment is expected tohelp the company in expanding its operating margin going forward.

Hydro, Dams,Tunnels and

irrigationprojects

30%

MRTS26%

Marine works20%

Specialistworks12%

Transportation12%

2 0 3 0

2 9 0 5

2 7 5 4

2 8 8 9

3 , 2

4 6

3 , 6

3 9

2.09 2.75 2.152.22

2.382.42

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

C Y2009 C Y2010 C Y2011 C Y2012 C Y2013E C Y2014E

( O B / s a l e s

)

( O r d e r

B o o k )

Order book OB/sales


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August 13, 2013 5

Financials

Revenue visibility to improve in CY2014E

Considering the delayed execution of the projects due to slowdown in economy and various regulatory concerns, we expect the revenue growth to be muted thisyear but rebound to 10% for CY2014E. As a result we expect the company to posta revenue CAGR of 7.5% over CY201214E to ` 1,502cr.

Exhibit 7: Strong order book to drive revenue


On the operating expenses front, we expect the raw material cost to remain atsame levels as a percent of net sales. However, we expect the employee cost toincrease to 11.8% as a percentage of net sales. Consequently, the operatingmargin is expected to be range bound for CY2013E (10.9%) and CY2014E(11.2%). Going forward we expect the interest rate to come down to 15.0% forCY2014E. The tax rate for the current year is expected to be on the lower side at~17% of PBT; however, we expect the tax rate to normalize at ~30% goingforward. Consequently we expect the company to post a profit CAGR of 21.1% at ` 32cr for CY2014E.

Exhibit 8: Margin to remain range bound


Exhibit 9: Lower interest cost to improve profitability


9 7 3

1 , 0

5 7

1 , 2

8 3

1 , 3

0 0

1 , 3

6 5

1 , 5

0 2

1.5

8.7

21.4

1.3

5.0

10.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012 CY2013E CY2014E

( % )

( `

C r )

Revenue (LHS) Revenue growth (RHS)

9 2

9 7

1 3 6

1 5 7

1 4 9

1 6 8

9.5 9.210.6

12.110.9 11.2

0

3

6

9

12

15

0

50

100

150

200

CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012 CY2013E CY2014E

( % )

( ` C

r )

EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA margin (RHS)

5 9 23 22 21 32

275.0

72.0

146.2

(2.5) (4.5)

53.5

(50)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012 CY2013E CY2014E

( % )

( ` C r )

PAT (LHS) PAT growth (RHS)


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August 13, 2013 6

The company

ITD Cementation is a subsidiary of Thailand-based Italian Thai Development PublicCompany Ltd. (ITD), which holds 70% stake in the company. ITD also provides itsknowhow, technologies and skilled personnel to ITD Cementation. ITDCementation provides EPC services to infrastructure projects in India. The company has a leadership position in the foundation and piling work, which contributesalmost 45% to its revenue. The companys business operation areas includeconstruction of maritime structures, mass rapid transit systems, hydro power,tunnels, dams, industrial structures, airports, highways, bridges, flyovers, tubeheading and foundation and specialist engineering.

Outlook and valuation

We expect the companys revenue to post a 7.5% CAGR over CY201214E to ` 1,502cr. The operating margin for the company is expected to hover around11.0% for the same period. Further, we expect the interest rate to soften by ~164bp to 15.0% for CY2014E resulting in the net profit growing at a CAGR of21.1% over CY2012-14E to ` 32cr.

The stock is currently trading at a P/BV of 0.4x. We remain positive on thecompanys outlook, however, we remain concerned on delay in project executionand hence the revenue inflow. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stockwith a revised target price of ` 194 with a target P/BV of 0.5x for CY2014E.

Exhibit 10: One-year forward PBV band


Exhibit 11: Relative valuation

Company Year end Mcap( cr)Sales(` cr)

OPM(%)

PAT(` cr)

EPS( )

RoE(%)

P/E(x)

P/BV(x)

EV/Sales(x)

ITD Cementation CY2013E 182 1,365 10.9 21 18.2 5.1 8.7 0.4 0.6

CY2014E 182 1,502 11.2 32 28.0 7.4 5.7 0.4 0.5

Simplex Infra FY2014E 253 6,308 9.4 59 11.9 4.5 4.3 0.2 0.5

FY2015E 253 7,033 9.6 93 18.7 6.7 2.7 0.2 0.5 Source: Company, Angel Research

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

A u g - 0

8

D e c - 0

8

A p r - 0

9

A u g - 0

9

D e c - 0

9

A p r - 1

0

A u g - 1

0

D e c - 1

0

A p r - 1

1

A u g - 1

1

D e c - 1

1

A p r - 1

2

A u g - 1

2

D e c - 1

2

A p r - 1

3

A u g - 1

3

( ` )

Price 0.2x 0.4x 0.6x 0.8x


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August 13, 2013 7

Concerns Proper execution of ongoing projects is necessary for the company as any

slowdown or freezing of projects either because of some approvals, clearance

or investment issues may adversely affect the companys performance, as itdirectly affects the companys revenue.

Disruption in the schedule of projects due to natural calamities is a big risk forthe company.

Volatility in raw-material prices in the coming years (ie, steel and cementprices) may put pressure on the companys margin.

Any further slowdown in the economy may adversely affect the companysperformance.


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August 13, 2013 8

Profit and Loss (Standalone) Y/E December ( ` cr) CY2010 CY2011 CY2012 CY2013E CY2014E

Total operating income 1,057 1,283 1,300 1,365 1,502

% chg 8.7 21.4 1.3 5.0 10.0Net Raw Materials 418 463 456 483 527

% chg 11.9 10.8 (1.5) 6.0 9.0

Other Mfg costs 238 305 309 326 360

% chg (12.1) 27.9 1.4 5.4 10.4

Personnel 102 124 143 161 177

% chg 22.0 21.6 15.5 12.5 10.0

Other 201 255 234 246 270

% chg 32.5 26.6 (8.0) 4.8 10.0

Total Expenditure 960 1,147 1,143 1,216 1,334

EBITDA 97 136 157 149 168

% chg 5.0 40.5 15.4 (5.2) 12.6

(% of Net Sales) 9.2 10.6 12.1 10.9 11.2

Depreciation & Amortisation 31 34 36 34 35

EBIT 66 102 121 115 133

% chg 7.3 54.0 18.8 (4.7) 15.1

(% of Net Sales) 6.3 7.9 9.3 8.5 8.8

Interest & other Charges 78 93 103 101 99

(% of loan) 14.8 14.9 16.6 15.8 15.0

Other Income 24 13 9 11 12

(% of Net Sales) 2.3 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8

Recurring PBT (12) 9 18 14 34

% chg 18.3 (178.9) 94.0 (19.0) 136.9

PBT (reported) 12 22 27 25 46

Tax 3 (1) 5 4 14

(% of PBT) 23.3 (2.5) 17.8 17.0 30.0

PAT (reported) 9 23 22 21 32

Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) 0 0 - - -

ADJ. PAT 9 23 22 21 32

% chg 72.0 146.2 (2.5) (4.5) 53.5

(% of Net Sales) 0.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 2.1

Basic EPS ( ` ) 7.9 19.6 19.1 18.2 28.0Fully Diluted EPS ( ` ) 7.9 19.6 19.1 18.2 28.0

% chg 72.0 146.2 (2.5) (4.5) 53.5


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August 13, 2013 9

Balance Sheet (Standalone) Y/E December ( ` cr) CY2010 CY2011 CY2012 CY2013E CY2014E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Equity Share Capital 12 12 12 12 12Reserves& Surplus 350 370 389 407 436

Shareholders Funds 361 381 400 419 447

Total Loans 525 624 621 640 659

Long Term Provisions - 4 5 5 5

Deferred Tax (Net) - (8) (11) (11) (11)

Total Liabilities 886 1,002 1,016 1,053 1,101

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Gross Block 322 395 426 447 465

Less: Acc. Depreciation 165 197 233 266 301

Net Block 158 198 193 181 164

Capital Work-in-Progress 12 3 14 14 14

Lease adjustment - - - - -

Goodwill - - - - -

Investments 37 41 47 47 47

Long Term Loans and adv. - 93 103 103 103

Other Non-current asset - 0 0 0 0

Current Assets 1,014 1,181 1,234 1,258 1,376

Cash 35 23 12 17 11

Loans & Advances 131 161 116 137 150

Inventory 357 680 791 772 849

Debtors 491 317 315 332 365Other current assets - - 0 0 0

Current liabilities 335 514 575 550 603

Net Current Assets 679 667 659 708 773

Misc. Exp. not written off - - - - -

Total Assets 886 1,002 1,016 1,053 1,101


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August 13, 2013 10

Cash Flow (Standalone) Y/E December ( ` cr) CY2010 CY2011 CY2012 CY2013E CY2014E

Profit before tax 12 22 27 25 46

Depreciation 31 34 36 34 35Change in Working Capital 12 0 (3) (44) (71)

Direct taxes paid (3) 1 (5) (4) (14)

Others 59 (24) 19 (11) (12)

Cash Flow from Operations 111 33 74 (0) (16)

(Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets (39) (64) (41) (21) (18)

(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments (14) (4) (6) 0 0

(Incr)/Decr In LT loans & adv. 0 0 9 0 0

Others 17 5 3 11 12

Cash Flow from Investing (36) (62) (36) (10) (6)

Issue of Equity 0 0 0 0 0

Inc./(Dec.) in loans 28 99 (3) 19 19

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (2) (3) (2) (2) (2)

Others (77) (79) (44) (0) (2)

Cash Flow from Financing (51) 17 (50) 16 15

Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 24 (12) (11) 5 (6)

Opening Cash balances 11 35 23 12 17

Closing Cash balances 35 23 12 17 11


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August 13, 2013 11

Key Ratios (Standalone) Y/E December CY2010 CY2011 CY2012 CY2013E CY2014E

Valuation Ratio (x)

P/E (on FDEPS) 20.1 8.2 8.4 8.8 5.7P/CEPS 4.6 3.2 3.2 3.4 2.7

P/BV 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4

Dividend yield (%) 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

EV/Net sales 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5

EV/EBITDA 6.6 5.5 4.7 5.1 4.7

EV / Total Assets 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Per Share Data ( ` )

EPS (Basic) 7.9 19.6 19.1 18.2 28.0

EPS (fully diluted) 7.9 19.6 19.1 18.2 28.0

Cash EPS 34.6 49.3 50.4 47.3 58.2

DPS 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

Book Value 313.7 331.0 347.8 363.8 388.3

DuPont Analysis

EBIT margin 6.3 7.9 9.3 8.5 8.8

Tax retention ratio 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7

Asset turnover (x) 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4

ROIC (Post-tax) 6.3 7.4 10.4 9.7 8.9

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 11.4 10.1 13.7 13.1 10.5

Leverage (x) 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3

Operating ROE 0.0 3.3 5.9 5.1 6.9

Returns (%)

ROCE (Pre-tax) 7.5 10.1 11.8 10.9 12.0

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 8.2 10.8 12.7 11.7 12.8

ROE 2.6 6.1 5.6 5.1 7.4

Turnover ratios (x)

Asset TO (Gross Block) 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.2

Inventory / Net sales (days) 123 147 206 206 206

Receivables (days) 156 115 89 89 89

Payables (days) 119 135 174 165 165

WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 225 183 181 179 177

Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3

Net debt to EBITDA 4.7 4.1 3.6 3.9 3.6

Int. Coverage (EBIT/ Int.) 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3


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August 13 2013 12

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to thelatest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates mayhave investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

Disclosure of Interest Statement ITD Cementation1 . Analyst ownership of the stock No2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

ITD Cementation, 2Q CY 2013

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