ITD Cement at Ion India Result Updated

7/31/2019 ITD Cement at Ion India Result Updated

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Y/E December (` cr) 1QCY12 4QCY11 % chg (qoq) 1QCY11 % chg (yoy)

Total operating income 384 327 17.6 344 11.5

Operating profit 49 44 11.4 27 81.3

OPM (%) 12.8 13.5 (71)bp 7.9 492bp

Adj. PAT 12 12 (3.4) 4 204.2

ITD Cementation (standalone) reported a strong set of numbers for 1QCY2012.

The company’s revenue grew by 11.5% yoy to ` 384cr and its profit soared by

204% yoy to ` 12cr. Completion of the low-profit NH1 road projects helped the

company to expand its margins. We are revising our estimates to factor in the

company’s 1QCY2012 performance. We maintain our Buy view on the stock.

Strong order book to drive revenue

The company’s order book stood at ` 3,600cr as of April 2012, with government

and private order ratio of 60:40. We expect the company’s revenue to post a

CAGR of 20% to ` 1,842cr, driven by strong order inflow worth ` 1,200cr in the

first four months of CY2012E as compared to ` 1,132cr in CY2011.

Interest cost reduction to drive bottom line

Interest cost for the company was as high as 14.6% in CY2011. However, the

company expects interest rates to decline from 2HCY2012. With the recent cut in

repo rate by 50bp by the RBI, it is expected that interest rates will see a downward

trend. We expect interest cost to decline to 14.2%, which will directly add to the

company’s bottom line, which is expected to be ` 44cr in CY2013E.

Outlook and valuation

We expect ITD Cementation’s revenue to post a CAGR of 20% to ` 1,842cr and

profit to post a CAGR of 40% to ` 44cr over CY2011-13E. At the CMP of ` 186,

the stock is trading at PBV of 0.5x CY2013E. We remain positive on the stock with

a Buy view and a target price of `236 and a target PBV of 0.6x for CY2013E.

Key financials (Standalone)Y/E Dec. (` cr) CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012E CY2013E

Net sales 958 973 1,057 1,283 1,535 1,842

% chg 22.2 1.5 8.7 21.4 19.7 20.0

Adj. net profit (3) 5 9 23 31 44

% chg (141.8) 275.0 72.0 146.2 39.5 40.3

OPM (%) 6.2 9.5 9.2 10.6 11.1 11.1

EPS ( ` ) (2.6) 4.6 7.9 19.6 27.3 38.3

P/E (x) (70.6) 40.3 23.5 9.5 6.8 4.9

P/BV (x) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5

RoE (%) (0.9) 1.5 2.6 6.1 7.9 10.2RoCE (%) 5.1 7.2 7.5 10.0 11.8 12.8

EV/Sales (x) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 10.2 7.3 6.9 5.8 5.1 4.8

Source: Company, Angel Research

BUYCMP ` 186

Target Price ` 236

Investment Period 12 Months

Stock Info

Sector

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 69.6

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 4.4

FII / NRIs / OCBs 0.5

Indian Public / Others 25.5

Abs.(%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex (9.1) (11.6) 36.6

ITC Cementation 17.0 (3.0) 53.8

Nifty 4,908

Reuters Code ITCM.BO

ITCE@IN

Face Value ( ` ) 10

BSE Sensex 16,216

52 Week High / Low 202 / 111

Avg. Daily Volume 2,386

Beta 0.6

Construction

Market Cap ( ` cr) 215

Tejashwini Kumari

022-39357800 Ext: 6856

[email protected]

ITD Cementation India

Performance highlights

1QCY2012 Result Update| Construction

May 14, 2012



ITD Cementation India | 1QCY2012 Result Update

May 14, 2012 2

Exhibit 1: 1QCY2012 performance (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) 1QCY12 4QCY12 % chg. (qoq) 1QCY11 % chg. (yoy) CY2011 CY2010 % chg

Total operating income 384 327 17.6 344 11.5 1,283 1,057 21.4

Net raw material 148 107 38.5 124 19.2 463 418 10.8(% of Sales) 38.6 32.8 36.1 36.1 39.6

Employee cost 33 33 0.3 29 14.8 124 102 21.6

(% of Sales) 8.7 10.2 8.4 9.7 9.6

Other Expenses 153 142 7.8 164 (6.4) 560 439.65 27.3

(% of Sales) 39.9 43.5 47.6 43.6 41.6

Total expenditure 335 282 18.6 317 5.6 1,147 960 19.5

Operating profit 49 44 11.4 27 81.3 136 97 40

OPM (%) 12.8 13.5 (71)bp 7.9 492bp 10.6 9.2 144bp

Interest 27 26 2.1 20.27 31.4 92.79 78 19.3

Depreciation 8 9 (8.9) 7.17 17.5 34.24 31 11.3

Other income 2 (2) 193.3 6.08 (73.1) 12.90 24 (45.8)PBT 16 7 123.6 6 173.4 22 12 80.0

(% of Sales) 4.1 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.2

Tax 4 (5.36) (169.8) 1.81 106.6 (0.55) 3 (119.3)

(% of PBT) 23.8 (76.4) 31.5 (2.5) 23.3

Reported PAT 12 12 (3.4) 4 204.2 23 9 140.5

PATM (%) 3.1 3.8 1.1 1.8 0.9


Strong order book and margin expansion boost profit

The company secured orders worth `

1,200cr in the first four months of CY2012,which helped the company’s revenue to grow by 11.5% yoy. During the quarter,

the company’s other expenses declined considerably as a percentage of net sales,

which helped the operating margin to expand substantially by 492bp yoy. This can

mainly be attributed to completion of low-margin NH1 projects. The company’s

profit jumped considerably by 204% yoy to ` 12cr mainly due to margin expansion.

Exhibit 2: Revenue growth trend


Exhibit 3: Expanding EBITDA margin


(20)

(10)

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( % )

( ` c r )

Revenue (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)

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( % )

( ` c r )

EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA Margin (RHS)




May 14, 2012 3

Investment arguments

Strong order book to drive revenue

The company’s order book stood at ` 3,600cr as of April 2012, with governmentand private order ratio of 60:40. With the completion of the low profitable NH1

projects, the current order book is more into the high-profitability segments. The

company also completed civil works for Iron Ore Port Terminal at Ennore Port,

Chennai and various other piling and civil works in U.P., Odisha, Gujarat and

Andhra Pradesh.

Exhibit 4: Order book (As of April 2012)

Segment %

Marine and Specialist works (Piling & Foundation) 80

Roads 7

Airport and urban infrastructure project 8

Tunnels and irrigation projects 5

Total 100


The company successfully added new contracts worth ` 1,132cr in CY2011.

The major contracts were:

Construction of ship repair facility at Lavgan, Maharashtra

Road Project (six-laning of Pune – Satara Road – Phase 1), Maharashtra

Construction of Terminal 12 Berth at Mundra, Gujarat

Piling work at Cuddalore for 2x600MW Power Project in Tamil Nadu

Construction of diaphragm wall and capping beam for proposed residential

complex at Wadala, Mumbai, Maharashtra

Piling work for multi-storey residential complex at Jaypee Greens, Noida

The company’s new order inflow in CY2011 was less as compared to CY2010, the

major reasons being the sluggish economic environment, high interest rate and the

upward trend in commodity prices. However, revenue growth outlook of the

company looks healthy, as it has already bagged new orders for ` 1,200cr in thefirst four months of CY2012E. We expect the company’s revenue to post a CAGR

of 20% over CY2011-13E to ` 1,842cr.




May 14, 2012 4

Exhibit 5: Strong order inflow expected in CY2012


Foray into the industrial and power segments – A growth driver

The company recently forayed into the industrial and power segments and has

already bagged orders for ` 300cr in the first four months of CY2012 and expects

the segment to be worth ` 500cr-600cr by the end of CY2012. The recent order in

the segment is from Adani Power’s Dahej Project in Gujarat. The segment being a

high-margin segment is expected to help the company in expanding its operating

margin.

Interest cost reduction to drive bottom line

Interest cost for the company was as high as 14.6% in CY2011. However, the

company expects interest rates to decline from 2HCY2012 as the company is in

the process of switching some of its high interest cost loans to low interest cost

loans. With the recent 50bp cut in repo rate by the RBI, it is expected that interest

rates will see a downward trend. We expect the company’s interest cost to decline

by 14.2%, which will directly add to the company’s bottom line, which is expected

to be ` 44cr in CY2013E.

(60)

(40)

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1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

CY2007 CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012*(Till April)

( % )

( `

c r )

New contracts added (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)




May 14, 2012 5

Financials

Revenue to post a 20% CAGR over CY2011–13E

The company’s revenue is expected to post a 20% CAGR overCY2011–13E to ` 1,842cr on the back of strong order book of ` 3,600cr as of April

2012, executable over a period of two and a half years.

Exhibit 6: Strong order book to drive revenue


Exhibit 7: Revenue break-up

Area of operation % Contribution to revenueMarine work and Pilling & foundation 60

Hydro/ Roads/ Bridges/ Tunnels 20

Power 10


Margin expands after the completion of low-margin contracts

The company’s operating margin improved by 144bp in CY2011 to 10.6% from

9.2% in CY2010, majorly due to reducing proportion of the low-margin NH1 road

projects in the order book. These projects were almost completed as of April 2012,

which will further lead to margin expansion. Also, with a large share of pilling andfoundation projects (having a higher gross margin of 12–13% compared to other

projects with a gross margin of 8–9%) in total revenue, the company’s margin is

expected to improve further by 49bp to 11.1% in CY2012E and stabilize around

this level going forward.

0

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1,200

1,600

2,000

CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012E CY2013E

( % )

(

`

c r )

Revenue (LHS) Revenue growth (RHS)




May 14, 2012 6

Exhibit 8: EBITDA margin to stabilize going forward


Profit to show impressive growth

The company has been reporting low profit in the past few years due to low

margins and high cost of credit. However, going forward, margins are expected to

improve and interest rates are expected to come down from 14.6% in CY2011 to

14.2% in CY2012E. Aided by these factors, we expect the company’s profit to post

a CAGR of 40% over CY2011–13E to ` 44cr.

Exhibit 9: PAT to post a CAGR of 40% over CY2011-13E


(200)

(150)

(100)

(50)

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100

150200

250

300

(10)

0

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CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012E CY2013E

( % )

( `

c r )

PAT (LHS) PAT growth (RHS)

(200)

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CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012E CY2013E

( % )

( `

c r )

PAT (LHS) PAT growth (RHS)




May 14, 2012 7

Outlook and valuation

During the first four months of CY2012E, the company bagged orders worth

` 1,200cr, with the total order book of ` 3,600cr as of April 2012, executable over

two and half years. We expect the company’s revenue to post a CAGR of 20% and

profit to post a CAGR of 40% over CY2011-13E to ` 1,842cr and ` 44cr,

respectively.

We remain positive on the stock with a Buy recommendation with a target price of

`236 and a target PBV of 0.6x for CY2013E.

Exhibit 10: One-year forward PBV band


Competition

ITD Cementation looks attractive vis-à-vis its peers with a PBV of 0.4x and a PE of

4.9x for CY2013E. The company’s earnings are expected to witness a robust

CAGR of 40% over CY2010–12E to ` 44cr. Although Patel Engineering is trading at

a PBV of 0.4x, ITD Cementation looks better with a PE of 4.5x and RoE of 10.2%

for CY2013E. Simplex Infra looks costly with a higher PBV of 0.7x and PE of 6.2x

for FY2014E.

Exhibit 11:

Attractively valued as compared to peersCompany Year end

Mcap(` cr)

Sales(` cr)

OPM(%)

PAT(` cr)

EPS(`)

RoE(%)

P/E(x)

P/BV(x)

EV/Sales(x)

ITD Cementation CY2012E 215 1,535 11.1 31 27.3 7.9 6.8 0.5 0.6

CY2013E 215 1,842 11.1 44 38.3 10.2 4.9 0.5 0.5

Patel Engg. FY2013E 612 3,609 13.1 98 14.0 6.2 6.2 0.4 1.0

FY2014E 612 3,836 13.1 102 14.5 6.1 6.0 0.4 1.1

Simplex Infra FY2013E 1,023 6,732 9.3 135 27.2 11.0 7.6 0.8 0.5

FY2014E 1,023 7,902 9.6 174 35.1 12.6 5.9 0.7 0.4


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Aug-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 May-12

( ` )

Price 0.2x 0.4x 0.6x 0.8x




May 14, 2012 8

Concerns

Proper execution of ongoing projects is necessary for the company as any

slowdown or freezing of projects either because of some approvals, clearance

or investment issues may adversely affect the company’s performance, as itdirectly affects the company’s revenue.

Disruption in the schedule of projects due to natural calamities is a big risk for

the company.

Volatility in raw-material prices in the coming years (i.e., steel and cement

prices) may put pressure on the company’s margin.

Competition in the business also poses a big threat for the company.

Any further slowdown in the economy may adversely affect the company’s

performance.




May 14, 2012 9

Profit and Loss (Standalone)

Y/E December (` cr) CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012E CY2013E

Gross sales 966 980 1,072 1,297 1,557 1,868

Less: Excise duty 8 7 15 15 22 26Net Sales 958 973 1,057 1,283 1,535 1,842

Other operating income 0 - - - - -

Total operating income 958 973 1,057 1,283 1,535 1,842

% chg 22.2 1.5 8.7 21.4 19.7 20.0

Net Raw Materials 402 374 418 463 571 685

% chg 36.1 (7.1) 11.9 10.8 23.2 20.1

Other Mfg costs 271 271 238 305 344 413

% chg 8.0 0.2 (12.1) 27.9 12.8 20.0

Personnel 74 84 102 124 147 177

% chg 8.1 12.6 22.0 21.6 18.9 20.0

Other 152 152 201 255 302 363

% chg 29.6 0.2 32.5 26.6 18.7 20.0

Total Expenditure 899 880 960 1147 1365 1638

EBITDA 59 92 97 136 171 204

% chg (4.5) 55.9 5.0 40.5 25.2 19.7

(% of Net Sales) 6.2 9.5 9.2 10.6 11.1 11.1

Depreciation & Amortisation 20 31 31 34 36 38

EBIT 39 62 66 102 135 166

% chg (16.6) 56.3 7.3 54.0 32.0 23.6

(% of Net Sales) 4.1 6.3 6.3 7.9 8.8 9.0

Interest & other Charges 47 71 78 93 103 120

Other Income 14 17 24 13 14 17

(% of Net Sales) 1.5 1.8 2.3 1.0 0.9 0.9

Recurring PBT (8) (10) (12) 9 31 46

% chg (124.0) 29.2 18.3 (178.9) 240.9 49.2

PBT (reported) 6 8 12 22 45 63

Tax 1 2 3 (1) 13 19

(% of PBT) 14.6 29.5 23.3 (2.5) 30.0 30.0

PAT (reported) 6 5 9 23 31 44

Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) 9 0 0 0 0 0

ADJ. PAT (3) 5 9 23 31 44% chg (141.8) 275.0 72.0 146.2 39.5 40.3

(% of Net Sales) (0.3) 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.0 2.4

Basic EPS ( ` ) (2.6) 4.6 7.9 19.6 27.3 38.3

Fully Diluted EPS ( ` ) (2.6) 4.6 7.9 19.6 27.3 38.3

% chg (141.8) 275.0 72.0 146.2 39.5 40.3




May 14, 2012 10

Balance Sheet (Standalone)


SOURCES OF FUNDS

Equity Share Capital 12 12 12 12 12 12Reserves& Surplus 338 342 350 370 399 441

Shareholder’s Funds 350 354 361 381 410 452

Total Loans 415 497 525 633 728 843

Deferred Tax (Net) - - - (8) (8) (8)

Total Liabilities 764 851 886 1,007 1,130 1,288

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Gross Block 229 294 322 395 414 435

Less: Acc. Depreciation 106 135 165 197 233 270

Net Block 123 159 158 198 182 165

Capital Work-in-Progress 40 2 12 3 3 3

Lease adjustment - - - - - -

Goodwill - - - - - -

Investments 13 23 37 41 41 41

Current Assets 945 956 1014 1201 1363 1630

Cash 11 11 35 23 28 28

Loans & Advances 175 180 131 205 245 294

Inventory 370 352 357 416 462 555

Debtors 389 413 491 557 627 752

Current liabilities 356 289 335 436 459 551

Net Current Assets 589 667 679 765 904 1,079

Misc. Exp. not written off - - - - - -

Total Assets 764 851 886 1,007 1,130 1,288




May 14, 2012 11

Cash Flow (Standalone)


Profit before tax 6 8 12 22 45 63

Depreciation 20 31 31 34 36 38Change in Working Capital (300) (78) 12 (98) (134) (175)

Direct taxes paid (1) (2) (3) 1 (13) (19)

Others 2 56 59 74 (14) (17)

Cash Flow from Operations (272) 14 111 33 (81) (110)

(Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets (87) (27) (39) (64) (20) (21)

(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments (8) (10) (14) (4) - -

Others 37 14 17 5 14 17

Cash Flow from Investing (58) (23) (36) (62) (6) (4)

Issue of Equity - - - - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans 333 82 28 109 94 116

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (1) (1) (2) (3) (2) (2)

Others (42) (72) (77) (89) - -

Cash Flow from Financing 290 9 (51) 17 92 113

Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (41) (0) 24 (12) 5 (0)

Opening Cash balances 52 11 11 35 23 28

Closing Cash balances 11 11 35 23 28 28




May 14, 2012 12

Key Ratios (Standalone)

Y/E December CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012E CY2013E

Valuation Ratio (x)

P/E (on FDEPS) (70.6) 40.3 23.5 9.5 6.8 4.9P/CEPS 12.9 6.0 5.4 3.8 3.2 2.6

P/BV 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5

Dividend yield (%) 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1

EV/Net sales 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5

EV/EBITDA 10.2 7.3 6.9 5.8 5.1 4.8

EV / Total Assets 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

Per Share Data ( ` )

EPS (Basic) (2.6) 4.6 7.9 19.6 27.3 38.3

EPS (fully diluted) (2.6) 4.6 7.9 19.6 27.3 38.3

Cash EPS 14.5 31.2 34.6 49.3 58.5 71.1

DPS 1.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0

Book Value 303.8 307.3 313.7 331.0 356.3 392.6

DuPont Analysis

EBIT margin 4.1 6.3 6.3 7.9 8.8 9.0

Tax retention ratio 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7

Asset turnover (x) 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5

ROIC (Post-tax) 4.8 5.3 6.3 7.3 8.8 9.5

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 9.7 10.1 11.4 10.0 10.0 10.0

Leverage (x) 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7

Operating ROE (0.7) (1.0) 0.0 3.4 7.1 8.8

Returns (%)

ROCE (Pre-tax) 5.1 7.2 7.5 10.0 11.8 12.8

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 5.6 7.5 8.2 10.8 12.6 13.6

ROE (0.9) 1.5 2.6 6.1 7.9 10.2

Turnover ratios (x)

Asset TO (Gross Block) 4.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.7 4.2

Inventory / Net sales (days) 131 136 123 110 110 110

Receivables (days) 126 150 156 149 149 149

Payables (days) 155 134 119 123 123 123

WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 163 232 225 197 192 191

Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7

Net debt to EBITDA 6.6 5.0 4.7 4.2 3.9 3.8

Int. Coverage (EBIT/ Int.) 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4




M 14 2012 13

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement ITD Cementation

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

ITD Cement at Ion India Result Updated

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