Israel Economic Data Overview

8/14/2019 Israel Economic Data Overview

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1

1conomics Department27/11/02

The Israeli Economy:Facts and Prospects

Presentation for theItalian Delegation to the Tel Aviv

Convention

byEphraim Toaff, PhD

December 2002


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2


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

USA

Switzerland

D

enmark

Japan

G

ermany

U.K.

Canada

France

Italy

Israel

Spain

Greece

Russia

China

GDP Per-Capita

$ thousands,The EIU forecast for 2002


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3


GDP Growth

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003*

* forecast


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4


National Accountsreal rate of change

2000 2001 *2002 *2003 Q1/02 Q2/02 Q3/02

Gross Domestic Product 7.4% -0.9% -0.9% 1.5% 2.4% -0.7% 0.5%

GDP per Capita 4.6% -3.2% -2.9% -0.5% 0.6% -2.4% -1.4%

GDP - Business Sector 9.7% -2.4% -2.9% 1.7% 0.3% -0.8% 0.0%

Private Consumption 7.2% 2.5% -0.2% 2.5% 0.0% -4.6% -0.8%

Government consumption 1.3% 3.3% 6.5% 1.0% 13.8% 5.6% -2.6%

Investment in Fixed Assets 1.7% -6.1% -6.3% 0.6% -6.2% 4.8% -17.0%

Exports of Goods and Services 25.3% -11.7% -5.0% 4.0% -5.4% 15.5% -16.6%

Imports of Goods and Services 12.3% -4.5% -2.0% 3.5% 4.6% 16.6% -23.6%

Quarters


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-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%4%

6%

8%

10%

I/98

III/9

8I/99

III/9

9I/00

III/0

0I/01

III/0

1I/02

III/0

2

%7.4

%2.4

%2.6

Growth

quarterly data, in annual terms

-0.9%

-0.9%


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Private Consumption

1998=100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Total consumption

Durable goods

Personal

transport

equipment


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Thousands of EmployeesUnemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate and the Number of Employees

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1.85 1.86 1.87 1.88 1.89 1.9 1.91 1.92 1.93 1.94 1.95 1.96 1.97 1.98 1.99'1.00 1.01 1.02

0

600

1,200

1,800

2,400


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The Labor Market

Participatio

n rate

Unemplo

yment

rate

Unempl

oyed

person

s

Employ

ment

Labor

force

Population

aged 15+ Population Immigration

(2+3)/1 3/(2+3) 3 2 2+3 1

53.4% 7.6% 165 2,040 2,205 4,129 5,829 66.2 1997

53.5% 8.5% 193 2,074 2,266 4,243 5,971 56.7 1998

53.8% 8.9% 209 2,137 2,345 4,358 6,125 76.8 1999

54.3% 8.8% 214 2,221 2,434 4,487 6,289 60.1 2000

54.3% 9.4% 235 2,265 2,500 4,605 6,439 43.6 2001

54.0% 10.6% 269 2,272 2,541 4,706 6,568 30 * 2002

54.0% 10.8% 281 2,317 2,597 4,810 6,699 30 *2003

% change

16.9% 1.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.4% -14.3% 1998

8.2% 3.1% 3.5% 2.7% 2.6% 35.4% 1999

2.5% 4.1% 3.8% 2.9% 2.7% -21.7% 2000

9.9% 2.0% 2.7% 2.6% 2.3% -27.5% 2001

14.6% 0.3% 1.7% 2.2% 2.0% -31.2% *2002

4.1% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 0.0% *2003


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The Development of Wagesconstant prices, 12 months moving average

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

1,997 1,998 1,999 2,000 2,001 2,002

Average wage

Public sector

Business sector


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Export of Goods and Servicesreal rate of change

Export of goods and services

World trade volume

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002* 2003*


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0

50

100

150

200

250

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02

Tourist Arrivals by Air in Israelthousands per month

Gulf War

Achille Laura Intifada

The Papal Visit

Terror Attacks


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Inflation

* forecast

17.6 %18.0 %

10.6 %

20.7 %

16.4 %

16.1%

19.6 %

3.5%

7.5%

0.0%

1.4%

7.0%8.1%

14.5 %

11.2 %9.4%

1.3%

8.6%

18.1 %

9.9 %

2.7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 '00 '02*


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1313conomics Department27/11/02 Budget Deficit

% of GDP

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002*

Maastricht criteria

* forecast


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109 104 104 99 97 93 90 84 79 78 76 76 7266

69 75

4643 39

3330 32 32

3027 26 26 29 26

24 2628

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

June

-02

Government Debt

% of GDP

Foreign

Domestic


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Defense Consumption

% of GDP


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Current Account Deficitmillion of dollars and % of GDP

* forecast

1.3

-1.4

-0.8

0.2 0.2

-1.3

-0.9

-2.4

-3.4

-5.0

-5.6

-4.0

-1.3

-3.3

-2.0 -1.9

-3.4

-3.7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003*

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%


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1818conomics Department27/11/02 Foreign Investment

millions of dollars

Foreign Investment in Israel

Israelis Investment. Abroad

Net Investment. in Israel

* annual terms according to first 9 months

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002*


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-1500

-1000-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Q3-00 Q4-00 Q1-01 Q2-01 Q3-01 Q4-01 Q1-02 Q2-02 Q3-02

Foreign Investmentmillions of dollars

Foreign Investment in Israel

Israelis Investment. Abroad

Net Investment. in Israel


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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 2001

Foreign Debt

% of GDP

Net

Gross


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Interest Rates Differential

Federal Funds

BOI Monetary Lending Rate

Interest Rates

Differential

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

12.99 12.00 12.01


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2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

01/92

01/93

01/94

01/95

01/96

01/97

12/97

12/98

12/99

12/00

12/01

Basket

Dollar

Exchange Rate

6%

2%0%

7%

4%7%


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Inflation, Exchange Rate and Budget Deficit

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002* 2003*

Inflation and the exchange rate (Dec./Dec.)

Consumer price index 8.6% 1.3% 0.0% 1.4% 7.2% 3.5%

Wholesale price index of industrial

output 8.2% 3.5% 3.0% -1.9% 7.5% 2.5%

Devaluation of the NIS -vs- currency

basket 20.6% -2.5% -6.3% 3.7% 15.0% 4.0%

The budget

Total deficit in budget 2.4% 2.5% 0.7% 4.50% 4.5% 3.5%** Excluding net credit

* forecast


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10 years to maturity

5 years to maturity

CPI Linked Bond Yields

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

1.86

1.87

1.88

1.89

1.90

1.91

1.92

1.93

1.94

1.95

1.96

1.97

1.98

1.99

1.00

1.01

1.02


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2525conomics Department27/11/02 Non - Linked Bond Yields

10 years to maturity

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2001.05 2001.11 2002.05 2002.11

Israel Economic Data Overview

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