Isolating Trends in Patent Portfolios

7/31/2019 Isolating Trends in Patent Portfolios

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Key Question

What methods can be used to isolate trends inpatent portfolios for a given telecommunications

system, or computer manufacturers?


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Methodologies

Patent Evolution Method

Inventor Identification Method

Patent Portfolio Trends Using Mathematics

Method

Patent Value Citation Analysis


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Identifying Patent Class

Trends Using Patent Software


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Description

Uses patent analysis software tocreate a patent class evolution chart

Derwent used in this example

Can identify trends within a companys

patent portfolio by analysis of software

generated chart


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Strengths

Easy to apply method

Results in a good, easy to interpretgraphic


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Weaknesses

Needs access to all relevant patent

databases

If using Cobalt IP, the graph shows only US

classes

Need to be able to convert US classes to

IPC classes


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1. Begin search

1. Enter in

company name

2. Enter in years

3. Search

Source: MAMPT


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2. Select chart options

Create custom stacked bar chart

1. Type name

2. Select IPC

3. Select

publication

year

4. Select

number of

items

Source: MAMPT


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3. ChartSteady

Class

Growing

Class

Source: MAMPT


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4.Analyze results Look for:

Steady patent filing numbers and growing patent

classes with the highest numbers of patents

Growing classes are technologies the companyis developing

Patent classes with steady, high numbers of filings are

technologies the company widely uses and is likely to

continue using


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Application of Technique

All three target companies steadily file for classes:

H04L (Transmission of Digital Information)

H04W (Wireless Communications Networks)


13/66Source: MAMPT

Qualcomm Patent Class Evolution


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Huawei Patent Class Evolution


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Ericsson Patent Class Evolution


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Identifying Companies by Top

Assignees in a Class Using

Patent Software


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Description

This methodology identifies top assignees(companies) within a patent classification

Charts companies filing patterns within thatclassification over time

Identifies companies filing trends withinpatent classifications


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Strengths

Reliable, quantifiable data

Effective visual representation


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Weaknesses

Thomson Reuters only shows data as far

back as five years sometimes

If using Cobalt IP, the graph shows only US

classes

Need to be able to convert US classes to IPCclasses


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1.To create a chart of top companies

in one patent class:

Type patent class in Advanced Search

Source: MAMPT


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2. Refine Search

Select ALL children classes of desired subclass

Source: MAMPT


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3. Create a chart

Source: MAMPT


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4. Create a chart contd.

Select the Top Assignees by Year chart

Source: MAMPT


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5. Create a chart contd.

This one utilized Top 10 Assignees by CountSource: MAMPT


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Dominant

company

Developing

Company

6. View Results

This charting feature only shows results since 2005

because the software did not find any older resultsSource: MAMPT


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7.Analyze results

Look for: Major drops and increases in filings - these may denote

strategy changes

Steady patent filing numbers and growing patentclasses with the highest numbers of patents to

determine trends

Companies with steady, high numbers of filings are

likely to continue using the selected class

Emerging companies


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Main companies for classes H04L and H04W:

In H04L, IBM was the dominant company through

2010 with Cisco making gains

In H04W, Samsung was the dominant company

through 2008, but in 2010 Qualcomm overtook

them


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Dominant

companyDeveloping

Company

Source: MAMPT

H04L Evolution


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Source: MAMPT

H04W Evolution

Prominent

Company

Major Growth


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Source: MAMPT

H04W 3-D Evolution

Qualcomm

overtakes

Samsung


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Methodology for Identificationand Evaluation of Inventors


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Description Identifies quality of inventors for the target

company

Allows monitoring of important inventors


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Strengths Determines quality of inventors

Determines who is working with whom

Quick method for assessing many inventors

Considers patents expired, number of

citations, and quality of citations


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Weaknesses Different maintenance fees for each country

Low quality/unpredictable inventors

Variable values differ when considering

different time periods


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1PEI+5PCI+4CQ=IQ(100 Points Total)

Patent

Expired Points

Patent

Citation Index

Citations

Quality Index

InventorQuality Index

Inventor Quality

Ranges and Assessment

Provides information on quality of inventors based

on PEI, PCI, and CQ

Source: MAMPT


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PEI= (PE/AP)*1000

Patent Expiration

Index

Nr of Patents

Expired

Nr of All Patents

Ranges and PointsProvides information on how many patents are not

maintained within the 20-years period

Source: MAMPT

Patent Expiration Index

P Ci i I d


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Provides information on how many times on

average on patent is cited

Ranges and Points

PCI= (PC/AP)*1000

Patent Citations

Index

Nr of Patent

Citations

Nr of All Patents

Source: MAMPT

Patent Citation Index

Ci i Q li I d


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Citations Quality

Index

Nr of Citations by

one Assignee

Sum of All

Citations

Ranges and Points

Provides information on how patent citations are

distributed within different companies

Source: MAMPT

Citation Quality Index


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1. Find inventors

The easy way to find inventors within the company

is to search by a corporate tree

Source: MAMPT


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2. Check most popular inventors

Names and number of patents granted per

inventor are available at the Inventor filter

Source: MAMPT


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3. Search for a specific inventor

Always use the full name in the Inventor search

Source: MAMPT


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4. Insert number of patents to MS Excel spreadsheet

Inventor filter shows names and number of patentsgranted per inventor

Source: MAMPT


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5. Build the forward citations chart

Source: MAMPT


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6. Count citations

Count all citations and citations by assignee

Source: MAMPT


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7. Insert data

Inventor spreadsheet automatically calculates

inventor quality (IQ)

Source: MAMPT


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8. Search expired patentsSearch by an inventor and INPADOC Legal StatusFP (Failure to Pay Maintenance Fees) to obtaina number of patents expired

Source: MAMPT


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9. Insert data

Insert number of expired patents in respective cells

Source: MAMPT


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10.Sort inventors by IQ number

High quality inventors are more likely to produce

important patents in the future

Source: MAMPT

S l P fil Q l


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Sample Profile Qualcomm

Vice President of Technology at Qualcomm

Senior Director of Engineering at Flarion

TechnologiesMember of Technical Staff at Bell Labs, Lucent

Technologies

Junyi LiCurrent position

Past positions

Education

The Wharton School University of Pennsylvania

Purdue University

Shanghai Jiao Tong University

All patents 1407

Citations 2860

Patents Expired 0

Source:http://media.linkedin.com/mpr/mpr/shrink_80_80/p/3/000/080/33b/11

f93d2.jpg


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S l P fil H i


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Sample Profile Huawei

Chief Engineer, Audio LAB at Huawei

Engineer at Samsung AIT

Lei MiaoCurrent position

Past positions

Education

Tsinghua University Xi'an Jiao Tong University

All patents 191

Citations 506

Patents Expired 0

Source:http://tinyurl.com/d82yqov

A li i f T h i


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Make link chart


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Patent Portfolio Trends Using

Mathematics


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Description

This methodology uses linear regressions or

trendlinesto examine a companys patent

portfolio

A positive trendline indicates a given company isincreasing patent filings, suggesting innovation

May aid in forecasting a companys patent filings

Strengths


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Strengths Easy to understand visual representation of a

companys current patent portfolio Extending the trendline along the same trajectory

could aid in forecasting the number of patent filings

Source: MAMPT


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Weaknesses

Does not work for companies withweak correlations Estimations do not consider other factors (i.e.

economy, technology)

Source: MAMPT


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1. Obtain total patent filings since 2000

Source: MAMPT


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2. Determine the correlation between the years

and the patent dataCorrelation should be above 0.85 to be useful

Source: MAMPT


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3. Graph the linear regression

Source: MAMPT

Number of


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4. If the equation of the linear regression is

desired, use the method of least squares

Slope = (nxy - x y)/(nx2(x)2)

Y-Intercept = (x2y - x xy)/(nx2(x)2)

Number of

Data Points

All X

Coordinates

All Y

Coordinates

Y = mx + b

Number of

Patent Applications

Slope Y-Intercept

Year


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5. Analyze resultsLook at the graph and equation to determine

trends in the companys patent data

Source: MAMPT


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Successful for Qualcomm (correlations?) and

Huawei (correlations?)

Unsuccessful for Ericsson

Correlation was 0.53



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Y = 514.97x -1030199.96

Number of

Patent Applications

Year

Application of Technique Qualcomm

Chart through 2017


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Application of Technique Huawei

Y = 437.57x 875982.59

Number of

Patent Applications

Year

Chart through 2017


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Evaluation

Linearity indicates company direction

Companies with positive linear trend lines file

more patents each year

Positive trend lines may indicate innovation

May aid in forecasting a companys patent

filings


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Proposed Experiments

Examine linearity of patent filings by subclass

May indicate the company is making technological

advancements in a given field

Isolating Trends in Patent Portfolios

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