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Transcript of ISDC 2013_Referat_Bernie Meyerson_IBM
IS Directors Conference – August 2013
Sustaining Innovation in a Global Enterprise
Dr. Bernard S. MeyersonVice President InnovationIBM Corporation
© 2012 IBM Corporation
IS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
Driving Sustained InnovationDriving Sustained Innovation In a Globally Integrated In a Globally Integrated EnterpriseEnterprise
Dr. Bernard S. MeyersonIBM Fellow, Vice President of InnovationCHQ
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
2007
Why Innovate?Why Innovate?“What is the most important capability required for growth?”“What is the most important capability required for growth?”
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Ability to manage increasing regulation costs
Ability to allocate capital
Ability to manage a global organization
Ability to allocate the best talent
Ability to innovate
Source: McKinsey survey of 9,345 global executives 07
McKinsey Global Survey 2010: 84% of executives say Innovation is extremely or very important to their companies’ growth strategyMcKinsey Global Survey 2010: 84% of executives say Innovation is extremely or very important to their companies’ growth strategy
© 2012 IBM Corporation
IS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
Key Elements of Key Elements of Sustainable InnovationSustainable Innovation A short list of EssentialsA short list of Essentials
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
Essential #1: People Essential #1: People (T(T--Shaped Innovators)Shaped Innovators) Requirement: Deep, ExpertRequirement: Deep, Expert--Thinking, with Broad ComplexThinking, with Broad Complex--Communications SkillsCommunications Skills
Many disciplinesMany disciplines(understanding & communications)(understanding & communications)
Many systemsMany systems(understanding & communications)(understanding & communications)
Deep in one discipline
Deep in one discipline
(analytic thinking & problem solving)
(analytic thinking & problem solving)
Deep in one system
Deep in one system
(analytic thinking & problem solving)
(analytic thinking & problem solving)
Many teamMany team--oriented projects completedoriented projects completed(resume: outcomes, accomplishments & awards)(resume: outcomes, accomplishments & awards)
Broad across many
Deep in at least one
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
Essential #2: Essential #2: InfrastructureInfrastructure
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
The World is Now Our LaboratoryThe World is Now Our Laboratory
China
WatsonAlmaden
Austin
TokyoHaifa
Zurich
India
IBM Research Lab
Brazil
Global, Smarter Planet Collaborations
Pangoo
Nairobi
Melbourne
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
Essential #3:Essential #3: DynamicsDynamics
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
1970s1970s 1980s1980s 1990s1990s 2000s2000s
Inter-disciplinary collaboration in the market and across the globe
Centrally FundedCentrally FundedJoint ProgramsJoint Programs
Research in the Research in the MarketplaceMarketplace
Collaborative Collaborative InnovationInnovation
CorporateCorporate Collaborative Work on Create business
2010s2010sCollaborative
fundedfunded
TechnologyTechnologytransfertransfer
TeamShared agenda
Effectiveness
clientproblems advantage for clients
Industry-focusedresearch
partnershipsEmerging markets
Global Global CollaborationCollaboration
Innovators Too Must Evolve;Innovators Too Must Evolve; From Inward Looking to Global, Client Focused ExpertsFrom Inward Looking to Global, Client Focused Experts
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
Result; Result; Innovations That MatterInnovations That Matter
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
Innovations That Changed History
Nano MRI (2009)Nano MRI (2009)Nano MRI (2009)
First PetaflopSupercomputer (2008)First First PetaflopPetaflopSupercomputer (2008)Supercomputer (2008)
Cell (2005)Cell (2005)Cell (2005)
Blue Gene/L (2004)Blue Gene/L (2004)Blue Gene/L (2004)
Carbon Nanotubes (2003)Carbon Nanotubes (2003)Carbon Nanotubes (2003)
Copper Interconnect Wiring (1997)Copper Interconnect Wiring (1997)Copper Interconnect Wiring (1997)
Deep Blue (1997)Deep Blue (1997)Deep Blue (1997)
SiGe (1994)SiGe (1994)SiGe (1994)
High Temperature Superconductivity (1987)High Temperature Superconductivity (1987)High Temperature Superconductivity (1987)
Scanning Tunneling Microscope (1986)Scanning Tunneling Microscope (1986)Scanning Tunneling Microscope (1986)Relational Database (1970)Relational Database (1970)Relational Database (1970)
Fractals (1967)Fractals (1967)Fractals (1967)
One Transistor Memory Cell (1966)One Transistor Memory Cell (1966)One Transistor Memory Cell (1966)
RAMAC (1956)RAMAC (1956)RAMAC (1956)
Fortran (1957)Fortran (1957)Fortran (1957)
Speech Recognition (1971))Speech Recognition (1971))Speech Recognition (1971))
RISC (1980)RISC (1980)RISC (1980)
Watson (2011)Watson (2011)Watson (2011)
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
Continuous Innovation; Continuous Innovation; Skills Beyond The Skills Beyond The ““AHA!AHA!”” MomentMoment
Disk Drives–If IBM had not continued to innovate in this field,
today’s laptops would weigh approximately 250,000 Tons
NeverNever Undervalue Ongoing InnovationUndervalue Ongoing Innovation
x2
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
The Transformative Power of Technology Lives On; Every Generation of Technology Enables Remarkable Outcomes
Apollo 11:2048 words RAM (16-bit word)-> ~4KB36,864 words ROM
Avg. Smart Phone:256 MB – 512 MB Cache2 GB – 64 GB RAM
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
After 50 Years,After 50 Years, How Long Before How Long Before
Technology As We Know It Technology As We Know It Has Run Its Course?Has Run Its Course?
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
We Are At A Fundamental We Are At A Fundamental Discontinuity in Information Discontinuity in Information Technology on Many FrontsTechnology on Many Fronts
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
Coming to Your Organization Soon; Coming to Your Organization Soon; Information Technology in the Information Technology in the ““PostPost--Silicon EraSilicon Era””
Silicon transistors will dominate Information Technology for decades to come, but contribute little to its progress.We will “worry” about the seemingly ridiculous, such as “slow” light and the Australian Strategy for DatacentersIntegrated solutions made up of specialized hardware, software, systems, and network functionality, will compensate up for lost technology benefits.Despite this, Information Technology will accelerate in terms of its contributions to business differentiation
© 2012 IBM Corporation
IS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
Truly Odd Issues;Truly Odd Issues; Addressing the Impact Addressing the Impact
of of ““SlowSlow”” LightLight
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
For Decades We Have Scaled Chips Down in Size and Systems and Datacenters Up in Scale
Scale out Scale out
Scale up
Scale down
Question: Even at 300,000,000 meters/sec,Is Light Fast Enough To
Keep Pace With Technology?Hint; Datacenters can
be hundreds of meters in size
Answer;Not even close.
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
The New, Near Term Architecture; Scale In
Scale In
Memory
Switching
Storage
Processor
Scale In ByIntegration
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
Addressing the “Problem” of Scale-Out; “Slow” LightIBM-3M Collaboration in 3D
Use 3D chip stacking to turn tens of meters into tens of microns, e.g. make signal paths shorter by a factor of about a million.
No problem, you must only;Thin chips to <50 microns.Stack 50 or so together.Connect them up somehow.Don’t set fire to them.
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
The Next Several Decades; Creating New Paradigms For Information
Technology Requires Ever More InnovationScale In By
3D Chip Bonding
Memory
Switching
Storage
Processor
© 2012 IBM Corporation
IS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
How Critical is Continued How Critical is Continued Innovation in Information Innovation in Information
Technology?Technology?Imagine the Emerging Imagine the Emerging
World of Big Data World of Big Data WithoutWithout
The Ability to Digest It?The Ability to Digest It?
Consider The FollowingConsider The FollowingTwo Grand Challenges Two Grand Challenges
From IBMFrom IBM’’s 2008 s 2008 Innovation JamInnovation Jam
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
Today there are 1 Billion cars on the road. That number will double in 2020
Congested roadways cost $78 Billion annually in the form of 4.2 Billion lost working hours and 2.9 billion gallons of wasted gas.
Global Challenge: Transportation
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
Global Challenge: Healthcare
$475-$750 BillionRange of estimated U.S. healthcare
spending each year on administrative and clinical waste, fraud and abuse and other waste.1
1.5 MillionErrors in the way medications are
prescribed, delivered and taken harm 1.5 million people in the U.S. every year.2
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
Innovation using Big Data:Innovation using Big Data: Transforming TransportationTransforming Transportation
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
Integrating realIntegrating real--world data with analytics allows one to world data with analytics allows one to be be ProactiveProactive vsvs ReactiveReactive
Operational/ TransactionalInsights in Singapore
Road Usage Optimization,
GHG emission models
Proactive
Ignorance is NOT bliss
Data allowsinsight, and insightenables foresight
Foresight allowsone to changethe future for
the better
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
Can We Really Know the Future?Can We Really Know the Future? Blue is the prediction, Blue is the prediction, Black is measuredBlack is measured
10 minute-ahead volume forecast (blue) at three
locations vs. actual data (black)
10 minute-ahead speed forecast (blue) at the
same three locations vs. actual data (black)
The Power of Big Data
•In the long past-----You’re stuck in traffic, here’s why…..•In the recent past-----You will be stuck in traffic, here’s why…….•In the present-----You would have been stuck, but I took care of it
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
Transforming Banking: Solutions for Smarter BankingOne of the largest banks in the world
Challenge;Managing the complexity of branch networks forrapid and profitable growth
Analytics Approach to OptimizationAnalyze prior business outcomes against all
available local demographicsCreate a map of optimal areas for branch
clusteringDeploy new branches per formula optimized for
newly deposited funds in the first year of business.
IBM’s China Research Labs delivered a plan that produced an additional $1.04B in deposits in one city alone
Market Potential AnalysisMarket Potential Analysis
CClusteringlustering
Site Location OptimizationSite Location Optimization
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
A Branch Location Challenge From A Massive Bank in China; Maximizing Profit via Advanced Analytic and Optimization Methods
Clusters indicate the hot areas with highest market potential for branch investment
CClusteringlustering
Branch Performance EvaluationBranch Performance Evaluation
IntroductoryStage
GrowthStage
MaturityStage Decline Stage
TotalMarketSales
Time
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%Introductory
StageGrowthStage
MaturityStage Decline Stage
TotalMarketSales
Time
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
Evaluate the performance of existing branches
Market Potential AnalysisMarket Potential Analysis
Based on economic geography data, market potential forecasting calculates and evaluates market potential
High Market Potential
Low Market Potential
Recommend branch locations with proper configurations such as branch format, service capacity, product, etc
Site Location OptimizationSite Location Optimization
China Research Lab’s Collaborative Innovation helped a bank increase its new branch fund intakes by $1.04B deposit in one city alone
IS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
The Challenge
NYS Tax Authority wanted a way to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of its tax collections process , which relied on rigid, manual rules to implement a complex process involving various legal/business constraints. The goal was to disassemble this rigid procedure leaving fragments of it intact wherever necessary, and automatically configure the rest based on analytics and optimization.
The Solution
IBM Research used a Markov Decision Process (MDP) framework to model the tax collection process, with “states” representing information on a taxpayer’s stage in the collection process, movement from one state to the next dependent on collection “actions” (e.g., phone call, warrant, levy), and “reward” represented by the tax collected for the taxpayer in question. A constrained Reinforcement Learning procedure was used to optimize (based on historical data) the expected long term cumulative rewards, using data analytics and optimization iteratively. The optimized MDP provided a policy mapping tax payer states to collection actions so as to maximize the long term cumulative rewards
Client: NY State Tax Authority
Business Benefits2010 realized an 8.22% revenue increase over 2009 , totaling ~ $83M35,000 fewer taxpayers had serious actions taken against them (A Significant OPEX Reduction)
Collections Optimization*
© 2013 IBM CorporationDr. Bernard Meyerson IS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013 Ann Winbald, Co-founder Hummer
Winbald Venture Capital
In its raw form, oil has little value.In its raw form, oil has little value.Once processed & refined, it helps Once processed & refined, it helps power the world.power the world.
30
““Data is the New OilData is the New Oil””
© 2012 IBM Corporation
IS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
Cybersecurity: Cybersecurity:
Employing Intelligence to Employing Intelligence to Counter AggressionCounter Aggression
32 © 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/united-states/121012/panetta-us-cyber-security-threat-pre-911-moment
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
@Computerworld: Bank security weaknesses led to cyber looting of $45M from ATMs #cybercrime (by @jaivijayan) http://t.co/mtXGG58eZU
"It's surprising that even some level of analytics wasn't used," to spot and prevent fraudulent transactions, he said. "When they were hitting 3,000 ATMs around the world at the same time, you'd think there'd be some analytics" to detect it, he(Jim Stickley, chief technology officer at TraceSecurity Inc.) said.
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
Evolution of Security Intelligence Beyond the Enterprise
IBM Confidential - For Discussion Purposes OnlyEnterprise Customers
Cybersecurity Platform (for Watson and US North)
Insider Threat Platform
Cloud Security Analytics
Mobile Security Analytics System G Social Media Monitoring
Systems of Record
Systems of EngagementAnomaly Detection at Multiple Scales (ADAMS)
© 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 36IS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
Cognitive Computing Complex reasoning and interaction extends human cognition
LegalSuggest defense/ prosecution arguments
TelemarketingNext generation – persuasive – call center
HealthcareSurface best protocols to practitioners
FinanceEnhance decision support
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
How Would You Leverage A How Would You Leverage A Tireless Tireless ““GeniusGenius”” At Your Side At Your Side
in Your Business?in Your Business?
© 2012 IBM CorporationIS Director’s Conference-Interlaken 2013
The New Realities of InnovationThe New Realities of Innovation
Despite all present challenges, progress in Information Technology will continue to accelerateData Analytics will extract unprecedented insights from BIG DATA, and become as common a “tool” as the pocket calculator.Cognitive systems will emerge as profound disruptors of the status quo.