Iscram09 Grant Ppr248 Mixed Rational Naturalistic Ds Final Slides 090506
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Transcript of Iscram09 Grant Ppr248 Mixed Rational Naturalistic Ds Final Slides 090506
Netherlands Defence Academy
Towards mixed rational-
naturalistic decision support
Prof. dr. T.J. GrantT: +31 (0)76 52 73261 (Mon-Wed)
M: +31 (0)638 193 749
NLDA
Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2
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Outline
Goal:• To propose that Command & Control (C2) system users should be provided with mix of rational-naturalistic decision support (DS) tools
Overview:• Background• Decision-making & planning• Current C2 systems• Mixed C2 toolset• Conclusions
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Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2
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Background (1)
NECS-G1 research project:• “Beyond Situation Awareness: closing OODA loop”
• Research question:Is it advantageous in terms of operational agility to
construct NEC-era C2 systems based on human
users’ thinking processes?
• Progress:Benchmarked OODA process model
Rational reconstructed OODA
OODA-RR test-bed applied to computer intrusion
• Next step:Develop 2G test-bed & apply to 9/11 case
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Background (2)
Research problem:
• Current C2 systems emphasize RDM:Select best immediate option
Proven optimal
Requires perfect information & no time pressure
• Research shows users prefer NDM:Match current situation to known patterns
Applies users’ experience
Fast & tolerant of incomplete information
• Can we provide mixed RDM-NDM toolset?Best of both worlds
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Background (3)
Research reported here:
• Study DS tools in current C2 systems
• Using Control Centre Visit Checklist (CCVC):Operational-view functions:• Observe, Orient, Sensemaking, Plan, Decide, Act
Systems-view functions:• Data acquisition
• Status monitoring
• Situation assessment
• Abnormality detection, isolation, & recovery
• Planning & scheduling
• Prediction
• Procedure execution
• Commanding
Grant, 2008
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Decision making & planning (1)
Characteristics of decision-making environment:• Ill-defined goals & ill-structured tasks
• Uncertainty, ambiguity, & missing data
• Shifting & competing goals
• Dynamic & continually changing conditions
• Action-feedback loops (real-time reactions)
• Time stress
• High stakes
• Multiple players
• Organisational goals & norms
• Experienced decision makers
Klein & Klinger, 1991
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Decision making & planning (2)
Feature Rational DMa.k.a. analytic
Naturalistic DMa.k.a. intuitive
Decision maker Novice or expert Expert
Environment Perfect information
Unlimited time
Changing goals & situation
Time pressure / stress
Inputs Set of options & attributes
All attribute-values
Objective function
Current situation
Patterns from experience
Option
construction
Score options & compare
Select best option
Match situation to patterns
Construct single option
Selection Optimizing Satisficing (“good enough”)
Key processes Option selection Situation assessment
Pattern matching
Story generation & analogy
Mental simulation
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Decision making & planning (3)
Possible mixtures:
• RDM for short-listing; NDM for final choice
• Construct single option & use RDM as checklist
• Drills for decision-making under stress:Rational, trained actions
Naturalistic recall
Providing both RDM & NDM tools:
• User free to choose
• Flexibility in high-stake situations
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Current C2 systems (1)
ISIS
BMS
CMS
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Current C2 systems (2)
OODA-RR COSPOL ISIS BMS CMS TOPFAS
Observing DA P Y Y P
Orienting SM Y Y Y Y
Orienting SA N N Y N
Orienting AD N N Y N
- GR P P P (CEC) Y
Deciding AI N N Y N
Sensemaking AR N N N N
Planning PS P P N Y
Planning PR N N N N (Gamma)
Acting PE N N N N
Acting CO P P Y P
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Current C2 systems (3)
NDM cognitive process ISIS BMS CMS TOPFAS
Identifying situation:
• Feature matching N N Y N
• Holistic / pattern matching N N Y N
Diagnosing situation:
• Information gathering P Y Y P
• Belief updating P P Y N
• Situation awareness Y Y Y Y
• Story generation P P N Y
• Analogical reasoning N N N P
Generating option:
• Single option construction N N P P
Evaluation:
• Mental simulation N N N N
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Mixed toolset (1)
Use existing RDM tools unchanged:
• Data acquisition
• Map display
• Data fusion
• Procedure execution
• Commanding
Enhance existing RDM tools:
• ORBAT browser
• Planning tool
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Mixed toolset (2)
Develop NDM tools for:
• Situation matching
• Generating information requirements
• Alarming / alerting
• Safeing
• Diagnosis / prognosis
• War-gaming
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Mixed toolset (3)Using toolset during planning process:
1. Understanding mission:Data acquisition; ORBAT; map display
2. Situation assessment:Data acquisition; data fusion; situation matching; diagnosis; alarming; safeing
3. Generating concept COAs:Planning
4. Define success criteria:Planning
5. Develop credible plan:Planning; map display; ORBAT
6. Simulate:War-gaming; map display
7. Decide:Map display
8. Develop mission order:Commanding; ORBAT; procedure executor
9. Opportunities for proactive DM:Planning; map display
Thunholm, 2006
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Conclusions
Conclusions:
• Studied four C2 systems
• Argued for providing mixed RDM-NDM tool-set
Limitations:
• Few C2 systems studied; no air force system
• Proposed enhancements & tools not yet implemented
Further study needed of:
• Additional C2 systems
• Refining CCVC to include NDM items
• Relationship between C2 and information gathering
• Constructing 2nd generation test-bed for 9/11 case
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Any questions?