ISAF report
7
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Transcript of ISAF report
NATO
OTAN
NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED
AAG
AAG
ISAF Violence Trends
Unclassified Monthly Release
30 September 2011
NON SENSITIVE INFORMATION RELEASABLE TO THE PUBLIC
NATO
OTAN
Enemy-Initiated Attacks Nationwide Monthly Attacks
2
Definition: Enemy-initiated attacks comprise all enemy action (enemy-initiated direct
fire, indirect fire, surface-to-air fire) and explosive hazard events, to include executed
attacks only (improvised explosive device (IED) explosions / mine strikes).
Data Source: Afghan Mission Network (AMN) Combined Information Data Network
Exchange (CIDNE) Database, as of 29 Sep 2011.
NON SENSITIVE INFORMATION RELEASABLE TO THE PUBLIC
ISAF Observations
• ANSF / ISAF and SOF
operations continue to show
marked gains in main effort
areas.
• Nationwide, enemy-initiated
attacks reported January
through August 2011 are down
3 percent compared to 2010.
• ISAF had expected a 17 – 30
percent increase in enemy-
initiated attacks for 2011
based, in part, on the increase
in Combined Team force
strength which included
10,000 to 25,000 more ISAF
troops and 60,000 more
ANSF troop/police in
Afghanistan in 2011 compared
to 2010.
DISCLAIMER: Figures may change as more
information becomes available.
0
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3500
4000
4500
Jan
08
Feb
08
Mar
08
Ap
r 08
May 0
8
Ju
n 0
8
Ju
l 08
Au
g 0
8
Sep
08
Oct
08
No
v 0
8
Dec 0
8
Jan
09
Feb
09
Mar
09
Ap
r 09
May 0
9
Ju
n 0
9
Ju
l 09
Au
g 0
9
Sep
09
Oct
09
No
v 0
9
Dec 0
9
Jan
10
Feb
10
Mar
10
Ap
r 10
May 1
0
Ju
n 1
0
Ju
l 10
Au
g 1
0
Sep
10
Oct
10
No
v 1
0
Dec 1
0
Jan
11
Feb
11
Mar
11
Ap
r 11
May 1
1
Ju
n 1
1
Ju
l 11
Au
g 1
1
Nu
mb
er
of
Inc
ide
nts
Enemy-Initiated Attacks
NATO
OTAN
Enemy-Initiated Attacks Nationwide Monthly Year-Over-Year Change
NON SENSITIVE INFORMATION RELEASABLE TO THE PUBLIC
Definition: This chart shows the year-over-year change in enemy-initiated attacks
(EIA). The total number of EIAs is shown in the background (light blue). The red
bars represent an increase of monthly enemy-initiated attacks compared to the
same month the year before; blue bars represent a decrease. The changes over
three month periods are depicted at the top of the chart.
Data Source: Afghan Mission Network (AMN) Combined Information Data Network
Exchange (CIDNE) Database, as of 29 Sep 2011.
3
ISAF Observations
• Enemy-initiated attacks for
the period June – August
2011 are 17 percent lower
than the same period in
2010.
• In 17 of the past 22 weeks
through the week of 23
September, enemy-initiated
attacks are lower than the
same week in 2010.
• Since May of this year,
enemy-initiated attacks are
lower than the same month
in 2010. We have not seen
a decrease in year-over-year
enemy-initiated attacks since
at least 2007.
DISCLAIMER: Figures may change as more
information becomes available.
-1500
-500
500
1500
2500
3500
4500
Jan
08
Feb
08
Mar
08
Ap
r 08
May 0
8
Ju
n 0
8
Ju
l 08
Au
g 0
8
Sep
08
Oct 08
No
v 0
8
Dec 0
8
Jan
09
Feb
09
Mar
09
Ap
r 09
May 0
9
Ju
n 0
9
Ju
l 09
Au
g 0
9
Sep
09
Oct 09
No
v 0
9
Dec 0
9
Jan
10
Feb
10
Mar
10
Ap
r 10
May 1
0
Ju
n 1
0
Ju
l 10
Au
g 1
0
Sep
10
Oct 10
No
v 1
0
Dec 1
0
Jan
11
Feb
11
Mar
11
Ap
r 11
May 1
1
Ju
n 1
1
Ju
l 11
Au
g 1
1
Nu
mb
er
of
Inc
ide
nts
+93%
Jun-Aug
2011
Jun-Aug
2010
Jun-Aug
2009
Jun-Aug
2008
+86% -17%+51%
Enemy-Initiated
Attacks
Decrease from
Year Before
Increase from
Year Before
NATO
OTAN
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
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400
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800
1000
1200
Jan
08
Feb
08
Mar
08
Ap
r 08
May 0
8
Ju
n 0
8
Ju
l 08
Au
g 0
8
Sep
08
Oct
08
No
v 0
8
Dec 0
8
Jan
09
Feb
09
Mar
09
Ap
r 09
May 0
9
Ju
n 0
9
Ju
l 09
Au
g 0
9
Sep
09
Oct
09
No
v 0
9
Dec 0
9
Jan
10
Feb
10
Mar
10
Ap
r 10
May 1
0
Ju
n 1
0
Ju
l 10
Au
g 1
0
Sep
10
Oct
10
No
v 1
0
Dec 1
0
Jan
11
Feb
11
Mar
11
Ap
r 11
May 1
1
Ju
n 1
1
Ju
l 11
Au
g 1
1
Yo
Y D
iffe
ren
ce
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan
08
Feb
08
Mar
08
Ap
r 08
May 0
8
Ju
n 0
8
Ju
l 08
Au
g 0
8
Sep
08
Oct
08
No
v 0
8
Dec 0
8
Jan
09
Feb
09
Mar
09
Ap
r 09
May 0
9
Ju
n 0
9
Ju
l 09
Au
g 0
9
Sep
09
Oct
09
No
v 0
9
Dec 0
9
Jan
10
Feb
10
Mar
10
Ap
r 10
May 1
0
Ju
n 1
0
Ju
l 10
Au
g 1
0
Sep
10
Oct
10
No
v 1
0
Dec 1
0
Jan
11
Feb
11
Mar
11
Ap
r 11
May 1
1
Ju
n 1
1
Ju
l 11
Au
g 1
1
Yo
Y D
iffe
ren
ce
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan
08
Feb
08
Mar
08
Ap
r 08
May 0
8
Ju
n 0
8
Ju
l 08
Au
g 0
8
Sep
08
Oct
08
No
v 0
8
Dec 0
8
Jan
09
Feb
09
Mar
09
Ap
r 09
May 0
9
Ju
n 0
9
Ju
l 09
Au
g 0
9
Sep
09
Oct
09
No
v 0
9
Dec 0
9
Jan
10
Feb
10
Mar
10
Ap
r 10
May 1
0
Ju
n 1
0
Ju
l 10
Au
g 1
0
Sep
10
Oct
10
No
v 1
0
Dec 1
0
Jan
11
Feb
11
Mar
11
Ap
r 11
May 1
1
Ju
n 1
1
Ju
l 11
Au
g 1
1
Yo
Y D
iffe
ren
ce
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan
08
Feb
08
Mar
08
Ap
r 08
May 0
8
Ju
n 0
8
Ju
l 08
Au
g 0
8
Sep
08
Oct
08
No
v 0
8
Dec 0
8
Jan
09
Feb
09
Mar
09
Ap
r 09
May 0
9
Ju
n 0
9
Ju
l 09
Au
g 0
9
Sep
09
Oct
09
No
v 0
9
Dec 0
9
Jan
10
Feb
10
Mar
10
Ap
r 10
May 1
0
Ju
n 1
0
Ju
l 10
Au
g 1
0
Sep
10
Oct
10
No
v 1
0
Dec 1
0
Jan
11
Feb
11
Mar
11
Ap
r 11
May 1
1
Ju
n 1
1
Ju
l 11
Au
g 1
1
Yo
Y D
iffe
ren
ce
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan
08
Feb
08
Mar
08
Ap
r 08
May 0
8
Ju
n 0
8
Ju
l 08
Au
g 0
8
Sep
08
Oct
08
No
v 0
8
Dec 0
8
Jan
09
Feb
09
Mar
09
Ap
r 09
May 0
9
Ju
n 0
9
Ju
l 09
Au
g 0
9
Sep
09
Oct
09
No
v 0
9
Dec 0
9
Jan
10
Feb
10
Mar
10
Ap
r 10
May 1
0
Ju
n 1
0
Ju
l 10
Au
g 1
0
Sep
10
Oct
10
No
v 1
0
Dec 1
0
Jan
11
Feb
11
Mar
11
Ap
r 11
May 1
1
Ju
n 1
1
Ju
l 11
Au
g 1
1
Yo
Y D
iffe
ren
ce
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan
08
Feb
08
Mar
08
Ap
r 08
May 0
8
Ju
n 0
8
Ju
l 08
Au
g 0
8
Sep
08
Oct
08
No
v 0
8
Dec 0
8
Jan
09
Feb
09
Mar
09
Ap
r 09
May 0
9
Ju
n 0
9
Ju
l 09
Au
g 0
9
Sep
09
Oct
09
No
v 0
9
Dec 0
9
Jan
10
Feb
10
Mar
10
Ap
r 10
May 1
0
Ju
n 1
0
Ju
l 10
Au
g 1
0
Sep
10
Oct
10
No
v 1
0
Dec 1
0
Jan
11
Feb
11
Mar
11
Ap
r 11
May 1
1
Ju
n 1
1
Ju
l 11
Au
g 1
1
Yo
Y D
iffe
ren
ce
RC E
RC SW
RC S
RC W
RC N
RC C
Enemy-Initiated Attacks (EIA) Monthly Year-Over-Year Change by RC (Jan 08 – Aug 11)
NON SENSITIVE INFORMATION RELEASABLE TO THE PUBLIC 4
39% of Nationwide violence
ISAF Observations • The comparative charts use the
same scale to allow a direct, intuitive
comparison of the different magnitudes
of monthly enemy-initiated attacks by
Regional Command (RC).
• Marked success in RC Southwest:
Attacks during the period June –
August 2011 are 40 percent lower than
last year; some districts in the Central
Helmand River Valley have seen
reductions in violence of nearly 80
percent, particularly Marjeh, Nad’Ali,
and Garm Ser. This improvement in
the security situation is attributable to
successful comprehensive CIVIL-
MILITARY counterinsurgency
operations.
• Emerging success in RC South:
Enemy-initiated attacks reported
during the period June – August 2011
were 10 percent lower than the same
period last year.
• Continued challenges in RC East:
Attacks continue to increase in RC
East; 17 percent higher for the period
June – August 2011 compared to the
same time period in 2010.
Data Source: Afghan Mission Network
(AMN) Combined Information Data
Network Exchange (CIDNE) Database,
as of 29 Sep 2011.
3% of Nationwide violence
20% of Nationwide violence
3% of Nationwide violence
34% of Nationwide violence
Less than 1%of Nationwide violence
DISCLAIMER: Figures may change as more
information becomes available.
NATO
OTAN
Nationwide IED Activity Executed Attacks
NON SENSITIVE INFORMATION RELEASABLE TO THE PUBLIC
Definition: IED activity comprises explosive hazard events, to include executed
attacks (improvised explosive device (IED) explosions / mine strikes) and attempted
or potential attacks, such as IEDs that were found and cleared, premature IED
detonations, or IED turn ins).
Data Source: Afghan Mission Network (AMN) Combined Information Data Network
Exchange (CIDNE) Database, as of 29 Sep 2011.
ISAF Observations • Insurgents continue to rely on IEDs to compensate for their degraded capacity. IED activity from June to August is 25 percent greater in 2011 than in 2010, while insurgent-initiated direct fire attacks decreased by 30 percent for the same period of time. • Over 70 percent of insurgent-caused CIVCAS result from IED strikes. • Year-to-date IED explosions have increased 5 percent compared to 2010.
• The rate of IEDs that are found and cleared without detonation is 55 percent of total planted IEDs, an improvement over last year’s rate of 45 percent. This improvement in finding / clearing IEDs is attributable to increased local national assistance (tips), improved counter-IED tactics, and increases in ANSF-led operations.
5 DISCLAIMER: Figures may change as more
information becomes available.
0
100
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1000
Jan
08
Feb
08
Mar
08
Ap
r 0
8M
ay 0
8Ju
n 0
8Ju
l 08
Au
g 0
8Se
p 0
8O
ct 0
8N
ov
08
De
c 0
8Ja
n 0
9Fe
b 0
9M
ar 0
9A
pr
09
May
09
Jun
09
Jul 0
9A
ug
09
Sep
09
Oct
09
No
v 0
9D
ec
09
Jan
10
Feb
10
Mar
10
Ap
r 1
0M
ay 1
0Ju
n 1
0Ju
l 10
Au
g 1
0Se
p 1
0O
ct 1
0N
ov
10
De
c 1
0Ja
n 1
1Fe
b 1
1M
ar 1
1A
pr
11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul 1
1A
ug
11
Nu
mb
er
of
Att
ac
ks
Executed IED Attacks
NATO
OTAN
Monthly ISAF Casualties WIA and KIA
NON SENSITIVE INFORMATION RELEASABLE TO THE PUBLIC
Definition: The chart represents monthly nationwide ISAF casualties.
Data Source: ISAF CJ1 Database, as of 29 Sep 2011.
ISAF Observations • ISAF troops killed in action
numbered 358 from January
through August 2011,
approximately 20 percent fewer
than the same period in 2010.
• ISAF wounded casualties from
January through August are
approximately the same in 2011
as in 2010.
• Total killed and wounded –
from January through August
have slightly decreased by 2
percent in 2011 compared to
2010.
6 DISCLAIMER: Figures may change as more
information becomes available.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Ja
n 0
8F
eb
08
Ma
r 0
8A
pr
08
Ma
y 0
8J
un
08
Ju
l 0
8A
ug
08
Se
p 0
8O
ct
08
No
v 0
8D
ec
08
Ja
n 0
9F
eb
09
Ma
r 0
9A
pr
09
Ma
y 0
9J
un
09
Ju
l 0
9A
ug
09
Se
p 0
9O
ct
09
No
v 0
9D
ec
09
Ja
n 1
0F
eb
10
Ma
r 1
0A
pr
10
Ma
y 1
0J
un
10
Ju
l 1
0A
ug
10
Se
p 1
0O
ct
10
No
v 1
0D
ec
10
Ja
n 1
1F
eb
11
Ma
r 1
1A
pr
11
Ma
y 1
1J
un
11
Ju
l 1
1A
ug
11
Nu
mb
er
of C
asu
alt
ies
WIA KIA
NATO
OTAN Monthly Civilian Casualties
NON SENSITIVE INFORMATION RELEASABLE TO THE PUBLIC
Definition: The chart represents monthly nationwide civilian casualties. The data
reported here is consistent with ISAF policy, which directs that all credible
allegations of civilian casualties be reviewed. The figures reported on this chart
reflect incidents of conflict-related civilian casualties that have been confirmed
through investigation to have been caused by either ISAF or insurgents.
Data Source: ISAF Civilian Casualties (CIVCAS) Database, as of 29 Sep 2011.
ISAF makes every effort to protect the Afghan population and ensure that the
number of civilian casualties is kept to an absolute minimum.
ISAF Observations • Insurgents caused over 80
percent of civilian casualties in
2011.
• Over 70 percent of insurgent-
caused CIVCAS result from IED
strikes.
•ISAF caused civilian casualties
are 20 percent higher in 2011
(January through August) than
during the same period in 2010.
• ISAF makes every effort to
protect the Afghan population
and ensure that the number of
civilian casualties is kept to an
absolute minimum.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan
09
Feb
09
Mar
09
Ap
r 09
May
09
Jun
09
Jul 0
9
Au
g 09
Sep
09
Oct
09
No
v 09
De
c 09
Jan
10
Feb
10
Mar
10
Ap
r 10
May
10
Jun
10
Jul 1
0
Au
g 10
Sep
10
Oct
10
No
v 10
De
c 10
Jan
11
Feb
11
Mar
11
Ap
r 11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul 1
1
Au
g 11
Nu
mb
er o
f Civ
ilia
n C
asu
alti
es
CIVCAS caused by ISAF CIVCAS caused by Insurgents
7 DISCLAIMER: Figures may change as more
information becomes available.
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