Is the Common Mwanachi Benefitting From the EAC (March 2011)
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Transcript of Is the Common Mwanachi Benefitting From the EAC (March 2011)
8/6/2019 Is the Common Mwanachi Benefitting From the EAC (March 2011)
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Isthe‘CommonMwananchi’
benefi4ngfromEACintegra:on?(asocio-economicperspec:ve)
ByAidanEyakuze
SocietyforInterna5onalDevelopment
www.sidint.net
8/6/2019 Is the Common Mwanachi Benefitting From the EAC (March 2011)
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Theanalogyofstocksandflows
• EAC’sStocks – Land,resources,people&talent,trust&goodwill
• EAC’sFlows
– Money,goods,rela:onships,informa:on,ideas,energy,innova:on.
• Flowstransformthestocks,increasing(or
destroying)theirvaluetoindividuals,tosocietyandtotheplanet
8/6/2019 Is the Common Mwanachi Benefitting From the EAC (March 2011)
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LakeVictoria–stockandflows
STOCK
Flow
Flow
Flow
Flow
FlowFlow
Oulow
8/6/2019 Is the Common Mwanachi Benefitting From the EAC (March 2011)
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EACRegionalIntegra:on
• Processoffacilita:ng,energizingandcatalyzingtheflowofgoods,services,money,people,
ideas,allofwhichcontaintransforma:veenergy
forgood(andill).
• InthedecadesincetheEACTreatywassigned
– Whathavebeenthetrendsofsomeoftheseflows?
– Havetheybenefiedthe‘commonmwananchi’?
8/6/2019 Is the Common Mwanachi Benefitting From the EAC (March 2011)
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A region of
peoples
White Nile
Lingala
line
Swahili
line
Indian
Ocean
EastAfrica’s
‘naturalborders’
8/6/2019 Is the Common Mwanachi Benefitting From the EAC (March 2011)
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EastAfrica’seconomy…
THEEAC
GDP:$74.billion(2009est.) Landarea:1.82millionkm2
Pop(est).133.million
PercapitaGDP:$42
CROATIA
GDP$69.33billion
Landarea56,1km2
Popula:on.8million
PercapitaGDP$15,700
BANKOFAMERICA
Marketcap:$71billion(Dec08)
Shareholder“popula5on”:1,842ins5tu5ons(6.3bnshares),3,423mutualfunds(2.8bnshares),80insiders(3millionshares)
8/6/2019 Is the Common Mwanachi Benefitting From the EAC (March 2011)
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Moretradeisflowing…
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Exports/GDP Imports/GDP
1980s
1990s
2000-0
2005
Source:“DynamicsofEquityinTrade,Educa8onandMedia”,SID2011
8/6/2019 Is the Common Mwanachi Benefitting From the EAC (March 2011)
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…and(increasingly)moreequitably
• Intra-regionaltradehasgrownby9%sincestartofEACustomsUnionin2005
• Kenya’sdominantposi:onasexporterisbeingchallenged.Itsshareof
intra-EACexportsfellfrom80%inthe1980sand1990sto61%by2008;
• Uganda’sshareofintra-EACexportshasrisenfrom13%in2005to20%in2008;
• Tanzania’s5%increaseinexportstoKenyabetween
2005&2008($9m–$250m+)
8/6/2019 Is the Common Mwanachi Benefitting From the EAC (March 2011)
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8/6/2019 Is the Common Mwanachi Benefitting From the EAC (March 2011)
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…evenNigeriaisinves:nginEA.
0%10%
20%
30%
0%
50%
ReturnonEquity(2009)Nigeria'sDangoteupsstakeinS.Africacementfirm(June,2010)DangotehasinvestedinGhana's1.2million
tonnesperyearTemaCementFactory,andotherplantsinSenegal,
Zambia,Tanzania,Democra5c
RepublicofCongo,EquatorialGuineaandEthiopia….Cementdemandin
EastAfricaisexpectedtoriseby33%
nextyear,withconstruc;onlistedas
amajordriverofeconomiesinthe
region.
NigerianinvestorinjectsnewlifeintoBankom's
opera:on(October25,2010)“Asaresultofthepartnership,InterSwitchLtdofNigeria
willowna60percentstakeofthefrim(sic).”
..becausethereturnsinEAaresojuicy!
8/6/2019 Is the Common Mwanachi Benefitting From the EAC (March 2011)
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Moreconnec:ons!“AirlinelaunchesDar-Mwanza
route”-Monday,17January2011
“Footlooseandbus-lovingEast
Africanistashavespawnedwhatisprobablythelargestandmost
efficientcross-bordertransport
systeminAfrica.Therearedozens
ofbusescrossingtheUganda-
Rwanda,Kenya-TanzaniaandTanzania-Ugandabordersevery
day.Attheendofschoolterms,
thesenumbersswelltoover30a
day.”CharlesOnyango-Obbo,SID2007
8/6/2019 Is the Common Mwanachi Benefitting From the EAC (March 2011)
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Moreconversa:onsareflowing…
Sourcehp//www.na:onmedia.com/newsleer/newsleer.html
“NEWSWAHILIPAPERLAUNCHEDINMOMBASA”–March2011
“Dubbedasthebest-selling
Swahilipublica5oninTanzaniawithover0,000copiessold,
thenewspaperispublishedby
MwananchiCommunica5ons
LimitedasubsidiaryofNa5on
MediaGroup,whichhopesto
replicatethesameormorenumbersinKenyaasin
Tanzania”
8/6/2019 Is the Common Mwanachi Benefitting From the EAC (March 2011)
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8/6/2019 Is the Common Mwanachi Benefitting From the EAC (March 2011)
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Labourisflowing…toDRCtoo!
• DesRwandaiscul5ventpourdesCongolais-Friday,0March2011(RNA)
“RusiziDesmilliersdeRwandaisdeBugaramavontchaquema:nauSudKivupourtravaillerdansleschampsdesCongolaisoudansceuxqu'ilsleurontloués.Letravailyest
abondantetleprixpayésa:sfaisant.”
8/6/2019 Is the Common Mwanachi Benefitting From the EAC (March 2011)
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Conclusion• Theprosecu:onoftheregionalintegra:onproject
hasbeendrivenbyafundamentalmo:veofimprovingthewelfareofEastAfricans(seeAr:cle7aoftheTreaty)
• Thegreatestbenefitofregionalintegra:onistheexpansionoftheopportunitysetforEastAfrican
ci5zenstoexploit–easierflows,moreconnec:ons,alargerplayingfield.
• Integra:onismakingiteasierforEastAfrica’swananchitotravel,totrade,totalk,toteach(andlearn)
• Whether,andhowwechoosetotakeadvantageoftheseopportuni:esisen:relyuptous.
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The
People’s
Region
White Nile
Lingala
line
Swahili
line
Indian
Ocean