Is Mars One Feasible?

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Transcript of Is Mars One Feasible?

  • Is Mars One Feasible?

  • This slide deck was prepared and presented bySydney Do* and Andrew Owens* at the 18th

    Annual International Mars Society Convention onAugust 13th 2015 for the debate entitled: Is MarsOne Feasible?

    *Ph.D. Candidate and Graduate Research Fellow, MIT

    2015 Sydney Do and Andrew Owens. All rights reserved

    This presentation is freely available at: http://bit.ly/isMarsOneFeasible

    http://bit.ly/isMarsOneFeasible

  • Who we are

    Koki HoAssistant Professor of Aerospace Engineering, UIUC

    Olivier de WeckProfessor of Aeronautics & Astronautics and Engineering Systems, MIT

    Sam SchreinerSpace Systems Engineer, NASA JPL

    Sydney DoPhD Candidate & Research Fellow, MIT

    Andrew OwensPhD Candidate & Research Fellow, MIT

    2015 Do and Owens

  • This is not a debate about the feasibility of Mars exploration or colonization.

    This is a debate about a specific mission plan, focused on a specific question:

    Is the Mars One mission plan feasible?

    2015 Do and Owens

  • The Mars One Plan

    Build up a colony on Mars using one-way trips

    Send 4 crewmembers every 2 years

    Utilize existing, validated, and available technology

    $6 billion for the first crew

    $4 billion for each subsequent crew

    First mission launching in 2020 (5 years from now)

    First crew landing in 2027 (12 years from now)

    REF: Mars One 2014REF: Mars One 2015

    2015 Do and Owens

  • 27 2822 302120 2623 332524 29 3231

    Crew 3 + Cargo 4

    Mars One Timeline

    Crew 2 + Cargo 3

    Crew 1 + Cargo 2

    Crew 4 + Cargo 5

    Demo Lander + Comm Sat

    Rover + Comm Sat

    Cargo 1

    (and so on)System Development,

    Design,Test,Manufacture,Integration, and14 Launches for $6B for first landing

    System Manufacture,Integration, and11 Launches for $4B every 2 years after

    Image Credits: NASA, Mars One, SpaceX, SSTL, Lockheed Martin, nasaspaceflight.com, 21usdeal, spacefacts.de, the-blueprints.com, cubpack311

    2015 Do and Owens

  • The Triple Constraint of Projects: The Iron Triangle

    Project

    A Feasible Project Plan: The defined Scope is attainable within the defined Schedule and Cost constraints

    Sch

    ed

    ule

    2015 Do and Owens

  • The Mars One ProjectFirst crew: $6B USD

    Afterwards: $4B/2yrs

    Permanent Settlement via One-Way Missions

    4 crew every 2 years

    First mission arrival: 2020First crew landing: 2027

    KEY QUESTION:

    Can Mars One execute the Mars One mission plan under the costand schedule constraints that they have specified?

    Sch

    ed

    ule

    Image Credit: Mars OneImage Credit: playbuzzImage Credit: Bryan Versteeg

    2015 Do and Owens

  • Mars One Arguments for Feasibility

    Schedule Feasibility - Comparison to Apollo:Dont forget that when Kennedy announced the Moon mission hehad less time- Bas Lansdorp, 2/23/2015, The Guardian

    Scope Feasibility One-way allows for existing technology:As soon as you accept that its going to be a mission of permanentsettlement, that actually the technology is existing the rockets weneed to send our equipment to Mars is existing technology, thelanding systems, because when you dont have the return mission,the payloads that you have to send to Mars are so much smallerthan for return missions, thats very comparable to the NASACuriosity mission, the life support systems are very similar to thoseused on the International Space Station- Bas Lansdorp, 4/3/2014, Bloomberg TV

    2015 Do and Owens

  • Dont forget that when Kennedyannounced the Moon mission he hadless time- Bas Lansdorp, 2/23/2015, The Guardian

    Schedule Feasibility 2015 Do and Owens

  • Hardware Required for First Landing

    Launch Vehicle

    Apollo CSM

    Apollo LM

    $102 billion

    Intelligent Rover& Trailer

    Demo Lander

    Comm Satellites

    Launch Vehicle

    Transit Propulsion

    Transit Habitat

    Lander & Surface Habitat

    1961-1969(8 years)

    Claim: $6 billion

    2011-2027(16 years)

    Image Credits: NASA, Mars One, SpaceX, SSTL, Lockheed Martin, nasaspaceflight.com, 21usdeal, spacefacts.de, the-blueprints.com, cubpack311

    REF: Mars One 2015, Lafleur 2015 (cost estimate calculated from Lafleur and adjusted to $FY2015)

    2015 Do and Owens

  • Comparison with a Private Endeavor

    Scope: Provide regular suborbital (~100km altitude) spaceflights to tourists

    As of Nov 2014 (after 10 years): $600 million invested,

    still in development

    2004-Present(11 years)

    12 years remaininguntil first crew landing

    2011-2027(16 years)

    Based on Existing, Validated, and Available technology

    Scope:Develop a Permanent Settlement on Mars via One-Way Missions, sending 4 crew every 2 years Based on Existing, Validated, and

    Available technology

    Image Credits: Mars One, Virgin Galactic, space.com, flickr, REF: Gordon 2014

    2015 Do and Owens

  • technology is existing

    - Bas Lansdorp, 4/3/2014, Bloomberg TV

    Scope Feasibility 2015 Do and Owens

  • Based on existing design (Curiosity)

    Coring drill

    ISRU Demo (O2 from atmosphere)

    No heavy lifting

    Tele-operated

    CrewTransportation

    ModuleTransportation [>100km based on Mars One -specified 10km landing error]

    Soil Collection & Transportation

    Make Gas, Water, & Electrical Connections

    Deploy Inflatable Unit

    Deploy Solar Arrays

    Intelligent RoverLaunch: 2022

    NASA Mars 2020 RoverLaunch: 2020

    Au

    ton

    om

    ou

    s O

    pe

    rati

    on

    s

    Total Cost: $1.2 billion($130M science instruments)REF: NASA 2015, Mars One 2015 | Image Credits: NASA, Mars One, machineryzone.com, Forbes

    2015 Do and Owens

  • landing systems verycomparable to the NASA Curiositymission- Bas Lansdorp, 4/3/2014, Bloomberg TV

    Scope Feasibility 2015 Do and Owens

  • 4,200

    2,500

    7,434

    899

    410533360600

    Viking(1976)

    Curiosity(2012)

    Phoenix(2008)

    Spirit/Opportunity(2004)

    Pathfinder (1997)

    Mars One Proposed

    Lander(2025)

    6,700

    Mars One Life Support

    Concept

    Vehicle(Dragon

    DryMass)

    Payload

    x2.8

    x7.5

    Mars One requires a significant leap in landing technology

    Landed Mass [kg]

    landing systems very comparable to the NASACuriosity mission - Bas Lansdorp, 4/3/2014, Bloomberg TV

    Image Credit: NASA

    NSSDC 2015JPL 1997

    JPL 2015NASA 2008

    NASA 2012Blau 2015

    Juarez and Landau 2013Paragon SDC 2015

    2015 Do and Owens

  • 600

    899

    410

    533

    533

    360

    600

    2,500

    7,434

    4,200

    Mars One Proposed

    Lander(2025)

    Cumulative Mass Landed

    on Mars

    Mars One Life Support

    Concept

    6,700

    3,935 Vehicle(Dragon

    DryMass)

    Payload

    Mars One requires a significant leap in landing technology

    The total mass landed on Mars to date is just over half of the mass of a single Mars One lander

    Landed Mass [kg]

    Viking 1

    Viking 2

    Pathfinder

    Spirit

    Opportunity

    Phoenix

    Curiosity

    landing systems very comparable to the NASACuriosity mission - Bas Lansdorp, 4/3/2014, Bloomberg TV

    Image Credit: NASA

    NSSDC 2015JPL 1997

    JPL 2015NASA 2008

    NASA 2012Blau 2015

    Juarez and Landau 2013Paragon SDC 2015

    2015 Do and Owens

  • the life support systems are verysimilar to those used on theInternational Space Station- Bas Lansdorp, 4/3/2014, Bloomberg TV

    Scope Feasibility 2015 Do and Owens

  • Our Long Duration Spaceflight Experience

    Troubleshooting of CDRA during Exp. 26

    R&R of UPA DA during Exp. 21

    Troubleshooting of WPA during Exp. 23

    Spaceflight hardware requires frequent servicing and repair

    26

    3ISS

    Mars One

    x8.7

    Life Support Requirement(Months Without Resupply)

    Image Credits: NASA

    Bagdigian et al. 2015

    2015 Do and Owens

  • Ma

    ss o

    f S

    pa

    res

    [kg

    ]

    Probability of Sufficient Spares

    Demand for Spare Parts is a Significant Logistics Driver

    x1

    x2

    x3

    x4Baseline

    (ISS demonstrated reliability)

    Mars One allocation for supplies

    Reliability DoubledCost increases exponentially with reliability

    life support systems are verysimilar to those used on theInternational Space Station- Bas Lansdorp, 4/3/2014

    Bloomberg TV

    REF: Mettas 2000

    Mass of Spares Required for Life Support and ISRU

    2015 Do and Owens

  • Ma

    ss o

    f S

    pa

    res

    [kg

    ]

    Probability of Sufficient Spares

    Demand for Spare Parts is a Significant Logistics Driver

    x1

    x2

    x3

    x4Baseline

    (ISS demonstrated reliability)

    Mars One allocation for supplies

    Reliability DoubledCost increases exponentially with reliability

    life support systems are verysimilar to those used on theInternational Space Station- Bas Lansdorp, 4/3/2014

    Bloomberg TV

    REF: Mettas 2000

    Mass of Spares Required for Life Support and ISRU

    2015 Do and Owens

  • Ma

    ss o

    f S

    pa

    res

    [kg

    ]The Mars One strategy of one-way missions is inherently unsustainable without a Mars-based manufacturing capability

    Life Support and ISRU Spares Demand

    0

    5,000

    10,000

    15,000

    20,000