Is FTA Favorable to Thai Agricultural Products? A Case ... 8 ˘ 6 3 /%3 7˘ 6/ %3#& +7˘ก ˛...

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Transcript of Is FTA Favorable to Thai Agricultural Products? A Case ... 8 ˘ 6 3 /%3 7˘ 6/ %3#& +7˘ก ˛...

Page 1: Is FTA Favorable to Thai Agricultural Products? A Case ... 8 ˘ 6 3 /%3 7˘ 6/ %3#& +7˘ก ˛ ˙˛ก- ˝?8 ก ˘˛ (. : ... ก ˘˛ (. ˘, ˝ ...vvvvvvvvvvvvv..... ..... 8. ) 1

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Page 15: Is FTA Favorable to Thai Agricultural Products? A Case ... 8 ˘ 6 3 /%3 7˘ 6/ %3#& +7˘ก ˛ ˙˛ก- ˝?8 ก ˘˛ (. : ... ก ˘˛ (. ˘, ˝ ...vvvvvvvvvvvvv..... ..... 8. ) 1

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"�#-�ก�;<�<='! )/!82;!��$"%-ก <)! =!��ก9��(���Q� .�5�;<� Non-traded goods Q� <)! �O2!�F -�0�ก N)! Roo ,1��)2ก/)-5#�"�27ก&7 =!��"�#-�ก�ก�$@2ก�N�=�,��-(.�)�"�#<�#2/<Y(�$-���!":!ก�N�=��#>�2)��:�ก�XF�=�6�"��!=ก F ��5#��;<�,��3 5'�N���5#��!:)�.)- � !��!

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;!ก�X� FTA ,"2-@�! 82;��ก��7 FTA �?�2!-@�! !&'! @กก�%+ก9��� �<!&! ก$,47Q�2F8 47/) 82.�&�@ก����ก��-�N�7&��&7;<� ;!<)/��A 2547-2549 Utilization Rate9 ���-&! >�$.�&� Q�O+����2�$ 100 .-2�/-/) NQ� )���ก-&! >�$.�&����,"2":ก�!"�#����ก� )���ก,�@�!;<� ="j=4=%9"�89�!>���- FTA (�$N���$02<!F"�89�@ก����ก��� ;!.-/1 Harmonize 07 ?+#�-�-&! >�$.�&� � !�2ก�;!.-/12)�2 (0714) �=1� !���2�$ 11.6 1&�!&'! -5#�"�27ก&7��!":!(w�"�j:�ก��-"�#ก=1�+'!�-"�#ก�)/O+�;!75'����!(��/ N���$02<!F"�#,1��&72&��2Q);!�$1&7 Q� @+�">;.�NQ� )���ก-&! >�$.�&����,"2,�@�!-;<� ="j=1&�ก�)/":ก�2

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10 http://www.ftamonitoring.org (�$�2�$��21(77@>���"�# www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu

11 ,1��&7��$02<!F@กก����O+�;! �X$%�9n% ��F @:���ก�XF-./="2�&2, 0���ก�%+ก9/=��$.F

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(!/"�ก� &-89XF@$�=#-��!@กก� �7O-8/$"&#/,�����:� .ก��--&! >�$.�&� ก���1 (�$(!/0!�-;!�!�� �SY.�:� ��� �S@@&2"�#-�N��)�ก� )���ก @:1(�6����,"2 (�$.�:;1,"2@+�� !��$"%"�#@�!!>��.�&ก !�ก@ก!�' 2&�O-O+��S@@&2"�#-�N��)�ก��)��&/���ก� )���ก-&! >�$.�&�,"2,�@�! >.�&7NQ���$ก�7ก�;!@�! ,1�wก�>O-/) �:� ��F;!-&! >�$.�&�"�#�)��&/ก=1@ก�$,� ;!�1��;<�/&�O:1=7�$,� (�$ก�;<�-&! >�$.�&�-����,1����27�2)�,� -�ก��22ก>�&�ก�N�=�;!<)/� 5 �A!�'.�5�,-) 4�$�$,� (�$ก>�&�ก�N�=�"�#4=#-�+'! -�O;<�/&�O:1=7�5#!"1("!-&! >�$.�&�,1�.�5�,-) ก�;<�-&! >�$.�&�@ก,"2� !/&�O:1=7 -��:� ��� .�5����@>ก&1;1.�5�,-)

!�ก@ก!�' ,1� ��� -ก��:� ��F�)�-&! �!���@�! @ก��=-Xก� )���ก-&! �!@ก,"2,�@�! ;!�Q� log 012-��&/(��"�#-�N��)��:� ��F"�#�)��&/�+'!;!�&ก9X$ Move along demand curve (�$ Shift in Demand ;!@�! 012ก>.!1;.�

Dx = f(GDP_ch, Px, Px/Pmaize, Dubai , FTA dummy, Alcohol dummy)

Dx = ��=-Xก� )���ก-&! �!@ก,"2,�@�! GDP_ch = N�N�=�-/��/-���@�! Px = �� )���ก-&! �!���,"2;!�Q�1���)�F ��. (USD) Px/Pmaize = �����27"�27�$./)��� )���ก-&! �!���,"2 (USD)

ก&7����/041;!��10�ก (USD) ?+#�� ! =!��"1("!ก&! Dubai = ��!'>-&!1=71Q,7 (������=�;!��1�<�2) FTA dummy = .�&�@ก����ก��-�N�7&��&7;<� >.�&7-&! >�$.�&�

(,��- 4 �A 2546) ก>.!1;.����-Q�-��)")ก&7 1 Alcohol dummy = �:� ��F;!(��ก����F"�#N�=�@ก-&! �! (N�=� :�(�$�"!��)

;!ก�%+ก9<=���=-X!&'! ;<����-Q��&'�(�)�A 2538-2549 � !�2,��- 012���-Q�":ก�&/ 2ก/�! �&/(�� Dummy @$-�ก��@&1N����T1Qก���ก,� (�$��$-/�N�;!�Q� log ?+#����-Q�"�#;<� -����@>ก&17���$ก� �5� ��=-X(�$�� )���ก-&! �!,�@�! ก)�!�A 2544 7�,��- ,-)-�ก� )���ก,�@�! !5#��@ก��=-Xก���2&��2Q);!�$1&7�#>-ก 45#�;.� -�O��$-/�N�;!�Q� log @+����#2!���-Q�@ก 0 � ! 1

!�ก@ก!�' @ก0��� ���ก� )���ก-&! �!-�ก����#2!(����2)�<&1@!.�&��A 2543 � !��!- (�)�$2$(�ก���ก����#2!(��� ก� )���ก,�@�! 2&�,-) -#> -� (7�,��- ,-)-�

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Supply

Demand

Quantity

Price

Q1

P1P2

Demand shift

Q2

Supply

Demand

Quantity

Price

Q1

P1P2

Demand shift

Q2

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;!"�"T9y��:� ��Fก�!>��-&! �!@ก@�! "�# $"��!@ก��=-Xก� )���ก-&! �!���,"2 (Dx) �S@@&2"�#-��="j=4� >�&Y,1�(ก) �2,1� (�$�$1&7�� =!�� 012�2,1�;!"�#!�' $"��!@ก�$1&7N�N�=�-/��/-���@�! (GDP_ch) 012@$-�ก����#2!(���;!"=%"�1�2/ก&7�$1&7�:� ��F ก�)/�5� -5#��2,1�4=#-�+'! @$-��:� ��F�)� =!��4=#-�+'! >.�&7�$1&7�� ;!ก�%+ก9!�' @$4=@�X�� =!�� 3 <!=1 ,1�(ก) �� )���ก-&! �!���,"2;!�Q�1���)�F ��. (Px) �����27"�27�$./)��� )���ก-&! �!���,"2 (Px) ก&7����/041;!��10�ก (Pmaize) ?+#�� ! =!��"1("!ก&! .�5� Px/Pmaize (�$��!'>-&!1=71Q,7 ?+#�� !��!'>-&!����=� >.�&7��1�<�2 (Dubai) 012 Px @$-�ก����#2!(���;!"=%"������-ก&7�$1&7�:� ��F-&! �! ?+#�� !,��- Law of Demand ก�)/�5� -5#��$1&7�� =!��4=#-�+'! @$ )�;.��/-����ก�7�=08� =!��!&'!�1�� (�$;!"�1�2/ก&! -5#� Px 4=#-�+'! O�.ก Pmaize ��"�# @$">;.��$1&7�����27"�27�/-4=#-�+'!<)!1�2/ก&! �2)�,�ก6�- >.�&7 Dubai -�O )�N��)��:� ��F;!-&! �!,1� 2 "=%"� ก�)/�5� O� Dubai 4=#-�+'! @$ )�N�;.���!":!-&! �!4=#-�+'! (�$ )�N��)��$1&7��-&! �! )���ก;.�4=#- Q��+'!1�/2 ?+#�@$ )�N�;.��:� ��F�)�-&! �!�1�� (�)�X$1�2/ก&! ก6 -�O )�N�">;.��:� ��F;!�"!��4=#-�+'! (�$/&�O:1=7"�# >�&Y<!=1.!+#�����"!���5� -&! �! @+�">;.� -�O )�N��)��:� ��F;!-&! �! ;!"=%"�1�2/ก&!,1�<)!ก&! >.�&7�&/(��.:)! (Dummy Variable) "�# -�O">;.�ก=1ก����#2!(���;!�:� ��F;!�&ก9X$">;.�ก=1ก����#2!(���;!�&ก9X$ Demand Shift ก�)/�5� ก����#2!(���;!�&ก9X$1&�ก�)/ -�O">;.���=-X4=#-�+'! (@ก Q1 � ! Q2) ,�4���-ก&7��"�#4=#-�+'! (@ก P1 � ! P2) !5#��@ก Demand Shift ,�7! �! Supply ((N!84 7)

(N!84 7 �!�:� ��F"�# Shift ,�7! �!�:�"!

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"&'�!�' �&/(�� FTA (�$ Alcohol dummy @$� !�&/(��"�#-�ก����#2!(���,�;!"=%"�1�2/ก&7�:� ��F-&! �! ก�)/�5� ก�"�#-&! �!� ! =!��"�#,1��&7 ="j=��$02<!F@ก FTA 1&�!&'! ;!"�"T9y� �/�">;.��:� ��F;!-&! �!4=#-�+'! (�$;! )/!��� Alcohol "�#-��:� ��F�)�!5#��;!-&! �! ?+#��/�@$-�ก����#2!(���"=%"�1�2/ก&7�:� ��F;!-&! �!<)!ก&!

6. FTA ก&ก����� ก� �����%�� �+�"+���

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6.6.3 ก� )���ก"�#4=#-�+'! �$2$(�ก� !N�@ก��=-X"�#�)��&/�+'!-กก/)1�!�� (�).�&�@ก�A 2548 � !N�@ก��-กก/)��=-X"�#4=#-�+'! ((N!84 21) )/!.!+#��@� !N�@ก"T9y�ก��189��$./)�ก&!012��$"%NQ�!>��� !��$"%;.Y) "�#��"�#��$"%NQ� )���ก,1��&7 -�O4=#-�+'!,1� (�)4�2��6ก!��2")!&'! (1&�"�#ก�)/O+�;!.&/��� 3) !�ก@ก!�' N���ก )/!.!+#�ก=1@กN�"�1�!���)�! )�82;!��$"%���,"2(4��+'! �&'�(�)�A 2547 � !��!- ">;.��S@@:7&! ��!":!�)�! )�-&! �!�=1� ! &1 )/!O+����2�$ 40 �����!":!"&'�.-128 (�)�2)�,�ก6�- ก�"�#��!'>-&!4=#-�+'! !�ก@ก@$ )�N�"�1�!�� )���ก-&! �!(��/ 2&� )�N��)��/-����ก�4�&��!"1("! 012U4$�"!��4=#-�+'! @+�-� )/!">;.���=-Xก� )���ก�)��&/�+'!1�/2 "&'�!�' @ก���-Q�"� O=�= 47/) ;!<)/� 2 �A �5� �$./)��A 2548-2549 ,-)4�2�(�)�$1&7�� )���ก-&! �!012U��#2@$4=#-�+'!O+����2�$ 21 (��/2&�">;.���=-Xก� )���ก�)��&/,1�O+����2�$ 20 (@กก��>!/X) 012��=-Xก� )���ก4=#-�+'!!��2ก/)ก�4=#-�+'!����� (�)2&�4=#-�+'!;!�$1&7 Q� ?+#�N�ก��)��&/"&'���=-X(�$�� 1&�"�#ก�)/-(��/;!75'����!/) -��/-� !,�,1� Q�/) ก=1@ก Demand Shift ?+#��-"�#ก�)/;!75'����! �5� �:� ��F;!(��ก����F >.�&7N�=� :� (�$�"!�� "�#;<�-&! �!� !/&�O:1=7

(N!84 21 : .�:ก��)��&/���-Q��)ก� )���ก-&! >�$.�&�,�@�!

28 !=4!jF 4&/4�%ก�, 7"/=@�XF, ���O+�(��/.

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30

7. D%ก���!������̀�b!���!��c

N�ก�/=��$.F<=���=-X;!75'����! �-(N!84"�# 22 (O/"�# (1)-(5) 47/) �:� ��F;!(��ก����F"�#N�=�@ก-&! �! (Alcohol dummy) � !�&/(��"�#-��$1&7!&2 >�&Y-ก"�# :1 ;!":กก�X�"�#">ก�%+ก9 012ก�4=#-�+'!����:� ��F1&�ก�)/ )�N�;.�-�ก�!>��-&! �!@ก,"24=#-�+'! ;!"=%"�1�2/ก&! (�$;!"������- >.�&7�&/(�� FTA 47/) -�N�!��2-5#�"�27ก&7 Alcohol dummy �� )���ก-&! �! (Px) �� )���ก-&! �!"�27ก&7��/041 (Px/Pmaize) ��!'>-&!1=71Q,7,��- ก)�!.!� (Dubai (-1)) (�$�$1&7N�N�=�-/��/-���@�! (GDPchina) �X$"�#��!'>-&!1=71Q,7;!,��- ก)�!.!� � !�&/(��"�#-��$1&7!&2 >�&Y���2�$ 90 �1/) � !4�$�$1&7��!'>-&!-�N��)���!":!ก�N�=�-&! �! (�$�� )���ก-&! �! �2)�-�!&2 >�&Y @+�">;.�"=%"������-ก&7�:� ��F;!ก�!>��-&! �!���@�!

>.�&7�&/(���2,1������$<ก�;!��$"% "�# $"��!@ก�$1&7N�N�=�-/��/-���@�! @$-��$1&7!&2 >�&Y"�#���2�$ 99 .�5� 90 012ก�4=#-�+'!����$1&7N�N�=�-/��/-���@�! @$ )�N�;.�-�ก�!>��-&! �!@ก,"24=#-�+'! ;!"=%"�1�2/ก&! �2)�,�ก6�- -5#��/-N�"�1�!�� �&/(��1&�ก�)/ก�&7,-)-�!&2 >�&Y !5#��@ก �&/(��1�!��-&! �! )���ก (�$ )/!�����27"�27�$./)�-&! �! )���ก(�$��/041;!��10�ก?+#�� ! =!��"1("! -��$1&7!&2 >�&Y-ก (�/-� !,�,1��#>ก/)���2�$ 1) (�)"=%"�ก����#2!(���ก�&7� !,�;!"=%"�1�2/ก&! )/!.!+#�� !N�@ก�:� ��F"�#��5#�!"�#,�7! �!�:�"! (Demand Shift) ">;.�ก=1ก����#2!(���1&�ก�)/ ((N!84 7) ?+#�@ก(N!84"�# 23 ,1�( 1�;.�.6!/) ก����#2!(��������(�$��=-Xก� )���ก-&! �!� !,�;!"=%"�1�2/ก&!

!�ก@ก!�' @ก0��� ���ก� )���ก-&! �!"�#-�ก����#2!(����2)�<&1@!.�&�@ก�A 2543 � !��!- (�)�$2$(�ก���ก����#2!(��� ก� )���ก,�@�!2&�,-) -#> -� (7�,��- ,-)-����-Q�ก� )���ก) 1&�!&'! @+�(7)����-Q�!&7�&'�(�)-�ก� )���ก -#> -� (�$"�#@�!!>��-&! >�$.�&�45#�N�=�(��ก����F45#�N�=� :� (�$�"!�� �&'�(�)�A 2544 ,��- 2 @!O+�,��- 4 �A 2549 -��$-/�N�"� O=�= 47/) @ก(N!84 22 (O/"�# (6) �$1&7�� )���ก (�$��!'>-&!1=71Q,7 � !�&/(��"�#-��$1&7!&2 >�&Y-กก/) ���2�$ 99 �)��:� ��F-&! �!;!@�! 012�$1&7�� )���ก -��/- &-4&!jF;!"=%"����ก&!��-ก&7�:� ��F1&�ก�)/ ?+#� �1�����ก&7 Law of Demand (�$��!'>-&!1=71Q,7 -��/- &-4&!jF;!"=%"�1�2/ก&! ( 1�/) �$1&7��!'>-&!1=7"�# Q��+'! -� )/!ก�$�:�!;!ก=1�/-����ก�;!4�&��!"1("! "�#;<�-&! �!� !/&�O:1=7 !�ก@ก!�' �$1&7N�N�=�-/��/-���@�! @$-��$1&7!&2 >�&Y"�#���2�$ 90 012ก�4=#-�+'!����$1&7N�N�=�-/��/-���@�! @$ )�N�;.�-�ก�!>��-&! �!@ก,"24=#-�+'! ;!"=%"�1�2/ก&! (�$-5#� FTA -�N�7&��&7;<� ">;.��&/(���$1&7N�N�=�-/��/-���@�!-�N��)��:� ��F-&! �!4=#-�+'! 0.04 �2)�,�ก6�- -5#����27"�27�!1���N�����&/(����!'>-&!1=71Q,7 ก&7N�7/ก"�#,1��&7@กก�"> FTA 47/) �&/(�� FTA -�N�!��2ก/)012���27"�27

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��(�$��=-X-&! �!"�# )���ก,�@�!

0

40

80

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2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 25490

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Year

Thousand tons

��2�&-.��ก���%&��/�0�� (LHS)

��F��S���%&��&-.��ก/�0�� (RHS)

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Export Demand Function

0.91***Dubai_sa (+/-)0.04***FTA*(GDPch_sa) (+)-0.83***MA(1)0.58***MA(3)

1.340.5448

-45.65***

-4.50*

5.05***

-0.148.44***

(5)

2.700.8523

9.44***

-1.55***

9.44***

(6)

-4.53*Dubai_sa (-1) (+/-)

48484848Observations

5.09***3.25***2.97***5.05***Alcohol dummy (+)

2.16***Px_sa/Pmaize_sa(-)

-44.45*13.63**-4.57-45.65Constant

0.550.970.980.54Adjusted R-squared1.34

8.30**

(4)

1.58

0.63-0.44

(3)Explanatory Variable (1) (2)

GDPchina_sa (+) 8.44** 0.58FTA dummy (+) -0.14 -0.14

Px_sa(Th to Ch) (-) 2.28***

Durbin-Watson Stat 1.34 1.89

"&'�!�' @กก�(2กก�:)-�&/�2)�-��$-/�N�;!75'����!!�' -����@>ก&1�5� @>!/! Degree of Freedom 2&��2Q);!�$1&7�#> ?+#�.ก-�@>!/!ก�:)-�&/�2)�-ก�+'! !)@$">;.�N�ก�%+ก982.�&�@ก"�#�:� ��F�)��&/ -��/-<&1@!�+'!

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(N!84 23 ��(�$��=-X-&! �!���,"2"�# )���ก,�@�!

.-2.�: :1) �$1&7!&2 >�&Y"� O=�= *** 1% ** 5% * 10%2) Ethanol Dummy 2538-2543 = 0 (�$ 2544-2549 = 1 3) FTA Dummy 2538-2546 ,��- 3 = 0 (�$ 2546 ,��- 4 - 2549 = 14) 3456789�:�;<�=/>?@5 (1)-(5) 2538 D 2549 �EF.��;5) 3456789�:�;<�=/>?@5 (6 2544 F.��; 2 - 2549 F.��; 4

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8. ����B%��� �� B �

@ก�/-ก�$�5��5���!���,"2;!ก���!- FTA ก�/=��$.FN�ก�$"7�����ก��� ��.�5� FTA @+�� !�5#��"�#-��/- >�&Y<=�!0272 �2)�,�ก6�-�!%+ก9 )/!;.Y)-:)���$-=!N�"�1�! /& 1=ก�@กก�"> FTA N)!ก�"> Policy Simulation Experiments ���(77@>���;!�&ก9X$ CGE 012U4$(77@>��� GTAP "�#N�ก�%+ก9!)@$� ! Upper Bound ���N�7/ก"�#@$ก=1�+'! ��$02<!F"�#@$ก=1�+'!@�=�2&��+'!�2Q)ก&7�S@@&2.�2P ��$ก�"�#,-) -�O���7��:-,1�;!(77@>��� �"= ก�7&��&7;<�กy/)1�/2(.�)�ก>!=1 -��ก�ก�1ก&!�5#!P"�#-=;<)89�!>�� (�$012U4$�2)�2=#�!02721�!<�/4�&��! �����$"%NQ�!><�/4�&��!���0�ก �"= .�&n�-�=ก .842:0�� @�! (�$7�?=� ">;.�N�ก�%+ก9;!�1��;<�,-),1�ก&7ก�X� =!��ก9��"�#OQก!>,�;<�45#�N�=�<�/4�&��! 1&�!&'! ก�/=��$.F<=��+ก;!�2 =!��"�#4=@�X(!/0!�-ก)�!(�$.�&�ก���!- FTA @+�� ! =#�"�#@>� !"�#����1>!=!ก��/7�Q)ก&!,� �/-O+�ก�/=��$.F�i=ก=�=2���NQ� )���ก"�#;<� FTA @�=� 1&�!&'!�!%+ก9!�'@+�����ก�/=��$.F<=��+ก;!�2 =!��

ก�%+ก9!�',1��5�ก��$-=!N� FTA ,"2-@�! "�#-��)�-&! >�$.�&� 4�$!5#��@กN��������ก��1&�ก�)/�)�-&! >�$.�&�-�N�7&��&7;<�-� !�$2$/�!!4�"�#@$��,�/=��$.F"&'�(!/0!�-ก����$./)���$"%(�$�i=ก=�=2���NQ� )���ก�)� FTA ,1� 012/=j�ก�%+ก9;!�!/=@&2U7&7!�'� !ก�N -N !�$./)�ก�/=��$.F���-Q�":�=28Q-= (�$���-Q��n-8Q-= 012���-Q�":�=28Q-= @$� !ก�/=��$.F���-Q�1�!ก�N�=� (�$ก����$./)���$"% (�$!>N�"�#,1�-4=@�X�)/-ก&7ก�/=��$.F���-Q��n-8Q-="�#,1�@กก� &-89XFNQ���$ก�7ก� (�$7:����)� P "�#ก�#2/���� 012�%&2/=j� Purposive Sampling "�#� !ก��5�กก�:)-�&/�2)�"�# -�O;.��/-.6!,1��2)�-��:X84 (�$ก� ���(77@>����S@@&2"�#� !�&/ก>.!1�:� ��Fก�!>��-&! �!���@�!@ก,"2 012ก>.!1;.��:� ��F1&�ก�)/�+'!�2Q)ก&7�$1&7N�N�=�-/��/-���@�! ��-&! �! ��!'>-&!1=71Q,7 (�$�&/(��.:)! ,1�(ก) �&/(�� FTA (�$(��ก����F"�#;<�-&! �!� !/&�O:1=7 >.�&7N�=� :�(�$�"!��

N�ก�%+ก9 47/) ก� )���ก-&! �!���,"2,�@�! � !N�@ก�:� ��F"�#�)��&/�+'! (Demand Boom) @กก��22�&/"�%�9nก=@���@�! @�!����ก�!>��-&! >�$.�&�45#�;<�;!ก�N�=� :� ;!�$2$(�ก���ก�!>�� (�)-5#���!'>-&!1=7;!��10�ก�)��&/�+'!;!�A 2547 � !��!- ">;.��:� ��F�)�4�&��!"1("!�)��&/�+'!<)!ก&! "�# >�&Y �5� �"!�� 1&�!&'! -Q��) )���ก"�#4=#-�+'! � !N�@ก Positive Demand Shock ก�)/�5� ก=1@ก Demand Shift "�#"&'���(�$��=-Xก� )���ก��&7�&/4=#-�+'!4���-P ก&! -กก/)ก���5#�!"�#,�7! �!�:� ��F (Move along demand curve)

O+�(-��/-����ก�-&! �!82;!��$"%���@�!@$�)��&/�+'! (�)45'!"�#4$��Qก-�@>ก&1 4�$� !45<�����! @�!@+� -�O��Qก-&!,1�4�2�7�45'!"�#")!&'! ">;.����1/�"�#N)!-,-) -�O�2245'!"�#4$��Qก,1�-ก!&ก ��$ก�7ก&7,"2 � !NQ� )���ก-&! >�$.�&��2;.Y)���0�ก--กก/)

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50 �A ">;.�-���$ 7ก�XF(�$�/-4���-"&'�;!�5#���/-4�2�4� (�$�:X84 =!�� �$77ก��! )�"&'�82;!��$"% (�$;!ก� )���ก Q�ก/)��$"%�5#!012���27"�27 ��$ก�7ก&7 �/- &-4&!jF�$./)���$"%"�#1��)�ก&!-!! ">;.�,"2,1����27"���.!5��Q)(�)�-ก

-5#�4=@�XO+��Q)(�)� @$47/) �=!01!�?�2 -�ก� )���ก,�@�!!��24�2����2�$ 5 ;!�A 2548 "&'�"�#�2������1;!@�!-กก/)���2�$ 60 ;!�A 2543 ( 1�/) �=!01!�?�2 -�N�N�=�,-)4�2�4��)�ก��&ก9��1"&'�"�#-�N�N�=�,-)�)�@ก,"2-ก!&ก !5#��@ก-��:� ��F;!��$"%-ก �X$"�#/�21!- -�O�22��1;!@�!-ก�+'! (�)45'!"�#-�@>ก&1 01245'!"�#"�#-��2Q) -�O��Qก45<�5#!"�#-�-Q��)4=#--กก/) ��$ก�7ก&7,"2(�$/�21!--�ก�(7)���1 )���ก�2)�<&1@! 012/�21!- )���ก;.�ก&70���!(��ก����F"�1�!;�����@�!012;<�")�5�"���!;��� !.�&ก ,1�(ก) ")�5� Beihai (�$ Fangcheng �X$"�#,"2 )�,�2&�")�5�"���!ก�������$"% �5� ")�5� Qingtao 45#�ก�$@2 =!��;.�ก&70���!(��ก����F;!7�=/X1&�ก�)/ ">;.�"&'�/�21!- (�$�=!01!�?�2,-);<)�Q)(�)����,"2 ?+#�N���$02<!F"�#,"2,1��&7@กก�"> FTA ,-),1�">;.� )/!(7)���1���,"2ก)�!(�$.�&�@ก"�# FTA -�N�7&��&7;<�(�ก�)�ก&!

!�ก@ก!�' N�@กก�/=��$.F<=���=-X;!75'����! 47/) �:� ��F;!(��ก����F"�#;<�-&! �!� !/&�O:1=7 >.�&7N�=��"!�� (�$ :� � !�&/(��"�#-�N��)��:� ��Fก�!>��-&! �!@ก@�!-ก �X$"�#�&/(�� FTA -�N�!��2ก/)012���27"�27

1&�!&'! ก���!- FTA "�#.�2wx2�=1/) ,"2,1��&7N���$02<!F!&'! @กก�%+ก947/) N�ก�ก=!1:�ก���ก&7@�!;!1�! =!��ก9�� 012U4$-&! >�$.�&� � !N�@กก��22�&/���-&! >�$.�&��- Demand Boom -กก/)� !N�@ก FTA -5#�� !<)!!&'! ก��&1 =!;@">����ก�� FTA 012;<�N� Policy Simulation @ก(77@>��� GTAP !)@$� ! Upper bound ���N�7/ก (�);!�/-� !@�=�-�(!/0!�-@$�#>ก/)!&'! ;!ก���$-=!N� FTA �/�@$�����>!+�O+��S@@&2(/1���-"�#,-)�2Q);!(77@>��� GTAP ��-� !���F��$ก�7;!ก��&1 =!;@1�/2 012U4$ ���-Q�<=��+ก"�#��;!�2ก� =!�� >�&Y@>� !����4=@�X�/7�Q),�ก&7 Policy Simulation @ก(77@>��� GTAP (�$�/�-�ก�%+ก9;!�&ก9X$1&�ก�)/ >.�&7����ก��"�#,1���!-N)!,�(��/�2)��$��21 45#�;<�� ! Lesson Learned >.�&7ก>.!1!0272�)�,�;!�!��

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� ก�����'�+�"

ก�-ก����)���$"% ก�$"�/�4X=<2F (�$-Q�!=j= O7&!4&M!-&! >�$.�&�(.)���$"%,"2, ก�%+ก9/=@&2��1ก���N�=�8&XvF-&! >�$.�&�;! j�X�&n��$<<!@�! lChina Tapioca Market Researchm, -�!�- 2550.

ก�-@�@ก����$./)���$"%, “ ��ก��� ���?�2!-@�!” , -ก��- 2548.

ก�-@�@ก����$./)���$"%, “�/-�57.!�ก�@�@��ก��� �����,"2ก&7��$"%�)�P” , ก�กy�- 2550.

ก�$"�/�4X=<2F, “0���ก�%+ก9N�ก�$"7"�#ก=1@กก��R1 ��ก����?�2!-@�!” .

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� ก�����'� �กl'

Baldwin, Richard, lManaging the Noodle Bowl : The Fragility of East Asian Regionalismm, Discussion Paper Series, International Trade, No.5561, March 2006.

Bond, Eric W., Riezman, Raymond G.and Syropoulos, Constantinos, lA Strategic and Welfare Theoretic Analysis of Free Trade Areasm, Journal of International Economic 64 (2004), 1-27.

Cai, Kevin G., lThe ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement and East Asian Regional Groupingm, Contemporary Southeast Asia 25, no.3 (2003) : 387-404.

Dunn Jr. Robert M. and Mutti John H., International Economics, 6th Edition, 2004.

Kohpaiboon, Archanun, lDoes Export Creation of FTAs exist? : Evidence from Thai Manufacturing, Presented in Annual Conference (Symposium 2006) Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University, Bangkok, Thailand.

Kohpaiboon, Archanun, lDoes Export Creation of FTAs exist? : Evidence from Thailand, Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University, Bangkok, Thailand,2007.

Krishna, Pravin, lThe Economics of Preferential Trade Agreementsm, Brown University and NBER.

Krishna, Pravin, lPreferential Trade Agreementsm, Johns Hopkins University, Prepare for the conference organized at Columbia University on August 5 and 6, 2005 on the occasion of Professor Jagdish Bhagwati�s 70th birthday.

Lijun, Sheng, lChina-ASEAN Free Trade Area: Origins, Developments and Strategic Motivations, ISEAS Working Paper : International Politics & Security Issues Series No.1(2003).

Panagariya, Arvind and Duttagupta, Rupa, lPolitics of Free Trade Areas : Tariffs Versus Quotasm, Journal of International Economic 58 (2002), 413-427.

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https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/

http://www.ftamonitoring.org/

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