Is FTA Favorable to Thai Agricultural Products? A Case ... 8 ˘ 6 3 /%3 7˘ 6/ %3#& +7˘ก ˛...
Transcript of Is FTA Favorable to Thai Agricultural Products? A Case ... 8 ˘ 6 3 /%3 7˘ 6/ %3#& +7˘ก ˛...
Is FTA Favorable to Thai Agricultural Products?
A Case Study of Thai Tapioca under ASEAN-China FTA.
����ก��� �� �������� ��������������ก�� ��������ก������
�ก���� 2551
!"#$%&'(
!"#�$%��$&$&�'�(�)� !�.+�.&�,��� �ก�(-'�"�� ��(������� �� �.���/�����0����� �� 1�(�)���( �� �%�(ก�2��'�� .��.�#���ก�����&��)� /%3ก�)��4.#�����.5� 1�(����1ก#-$����/%3��6���(��,�&������ก 7�.�������8ก��,�9��%9 !"#�������/����4���� ������,���:�����ก����(�7��+;&��ก���� 2551 ��.+�.��'�0 '��'��ก� ���+% ��(������� �� �.���/�����0����� �� /%3,��� �#������ ��"��4.#ก������8ก��,�9��%9 1�(!"#4.#�7���8ก��4�+#������ < -+#1ก� +�.'�,�� =�/�����'� �)� )ก�22� ������,2 +�.,��'�>� '"�'�>�'��"�� 1�(�����ก�&��)� /)ก/���4�/%�������(.� ?%��=�'�����ก��ก������ �&ก��ก�%9 ����8ก���%9 �(�%���� ��"��-�-��-+#.�ก$�+$#&�"�/%3-+#��กก�� ��=�����(!"#���.�� ����ก���#���� 7��(.��� ����������!"#!������ 7��(.���-/� 1�( ����������!"#!������ 7��(.��� =���(���&&ก�@%���.�;& 1�(!"# ��� �)�$#&�"�/)���="��/%3 7���2 -+#1ก� �)����/��� '��������0�ก)� 1�(�)� ),�+� �+,��(ก"� 1�($&$&��)� 7�.���/)กก7����4�/%3,��� ��� �)�4.#���������%9 7���5���+#��+%
���������� ���ก���������� ������������������� �� � �!"#����$���%���&���ก'����������(����)�!���*��+ ��
��(�/�-/���6���(�/�.�83�/%3�%����ก�(�;&�;&�#�4�ก������� FTA +����9� ก��������(.!�ก�(/�$&� FTA �8���6���;3&� 7���2 1��/%3!���������8ก�� ���4.2��)����(����!�/��+#�� �� +�ก����กก��/7� FTA !���1���7��&� Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) /%3!�ก���8ก������(��6� Upper Bound $&�!���ก/%3�(�ก�+$89� �'��(�%�Z����.���&����/%31���7��&�-��-+#��&���)� &�/� Rule of Origin 1�(&)� ���/��ก���#�&;3� < ��6��#� ก���8ก���%9 -+#��;&ก��(����!� FTA -/�-�%� /%3�%��&��� 7��(.��� ��;3&���ก$#&�ก���%!�������4,#���(�(����'& ���� /%3�(�$#�-�������(./�9�1����#�ก���#��(.������(�/� 1�(�:�ก�����$&�!"# ��&&ก��& FTA -+# �+���0%ก���8ก�� �(! �! ���(.����ก��������(.$#&�"�/)���="��1�(���="�� 8̀3�$#&�"����="���(&������0% Purposive Sampling /%3��6�ก����;&กก�)�����&����/%3 ����?4.#�����.5�-+#&�����%�)�=�' 1�(ก��������(.�,�������� ?8��Z����/%3��6����ก7�.�+&)� ����&���� #�4��%�
!�ก���8ก�� '���� ก�� ��&&ก��� 7��(.��� (���� #�) $&�-/�-��%� ��6�!���ก&)� ��/%3�������$89� ��กก��$������/�������ก��$&��%� �+��%��#&�ก���7��$#����� #��';3&4,#4�ก��!���1&�ก&d&� �';3&!��� )��1�( �&/��&� +����9� ก������� FTA /%3.���������+��� -/�-+#�����(��,���9� ��กก���8ก��'���� .�����ก����� FTA 1�#� ���#��ก������$#&�ก���ก��+)�ก���#�ก���%����/%3/)ก������+.��� 1��ก���ก��+)���6�!���กก��$������$&���� 7��(.������ Demand Boom ��กก�����6�!���ก FTA +����9�4�ก����(����!� FTA ����(�#&��7��8�?8��Z����1�+�#&�/%3-��&�"�4�1���7��&� GTAP �$#�����6�&����(ก&�4�ก����+ ��4�+#�� �+��@'�( $#&�"��,���8ก/%3��4����ก�� ���#� 7���2�7���6��#&�'����������"�-�ก�� Policy Simulation ��ก1���7��&� GTAP 1�(����%ก���8ก��4���ก��(+��ก���� 7�.���$#&�ก��/%3-+#�����!���-�1�#�&�����(�&%�+ �';3&4,#��6� Lesson Learned 7�.���ก7�.�+��������&-�4�&����
!")*+,)-./*$!012!*3/.*
Is FTA Favorable to Thai Agricultural Products?
A Case Study of Thai Tapioca under ASEAN-China FTA.
��ก����ก�(�;&�;&�#�$&�-/�4�ก������� FTA ก��������(.!�ก�(/�$&��$�ก���#�� �%.�;& FTA �8���6���;3&�/%3�%���� 7���2�,�������� &����-�ก5�������8ก�� ���4.2��)����(����!�/��+#�� �� +�ก����กก��/7� FTA !���ก��/7� Policy Simulation Experiments $&�1���7��&�4���ก��( CGE �+��@'�(1���7��&� GTAP /%3!�ก���8ก������(��6� Upper Bound $&�!���ก/%3�(�ก�+$89� ��(��,�/%3�(�ก�+$89��������$89�&�"�ก���Z����.���< ��(ก��/%3-�� ����?��&���)�-+#4�1���7��&� &�/� ก��������4,#กj���+#��1.���ก7����+ ����ก��ก%+ก��&;3�</%3��4,�=��%�7��$#� 1�(�+��@'�(&������3�������+#��,%�'������ $&���(�/�!"#�7�,%�'������$&���ก &�/� .���&����ก� .=�'�)��� �%� 1�(���`�� /7�4.#!�ก���8ก��4�&+%�4,#-��-+#ก��ก��% ���#��ก���/%3?"ก�7�-�4,#�';3&!���,%�'������ +����9� ก��������(.�,���8ก4���� ���#�/%3'������1����#�ก�&�1�(.���ก������� FTA �8���6� �3�/%3�7���6�/%3�#&�+7�����ก������"�ก��-� ���?8�ก��������(.�:�ก�����$&�!"# ��&&ก/%34,# FTA ���� +����9�����8ก���%9�8��#&�ก��������(.�,���8ก4���� ���#�
ก���8ก���%9-+#��;&ก��(����!� FTA -/�-�%� /%3�%��&��� 7��(.��� �'��(��;3&���ก!�$&�$#&�ก��+��ก������&��� 7��(.����%!�������4,#����6��(�(�������'&/%3�(�$#�-�������(./�9�1����#�ก���#��(.������(�/�1�(�:�ก�����$&�!"# ��&&ก��& FTA -+# �+���0%ก���8ก��4���������@����%9��6�ก��! �! ���(.����ก��������(.$#&�"�/)���="�� 1�($#&�"����="�� �+�$#&�"�/)���="�� �(��6�ก��������(.$#&�"�+#��ก��!��� 1�(ก���#��(.������(�/� 1�(�7�!�/%3-+#��'����������ก��ก��������(.$#&�"����="��/%3-+#��กก�� ��=���!"#��(ก&�ก�� 1�(�)������� < /%3�ก%3��$#&� �+�&������0% Purposive Sampling /%3��6�ก����;&กก�)�����&����/%3 ����?4.#�����.5�-+#&�����%�)�=�' 1�(ก�� �#��1���7��&��Z����/%3��6����ก7�.�+&)� ��ก���7��$#����� #�$&��%���ก-/� �+�ก7�.�+4.#&)� ��+��ก����$89�&�"�ก���(+��!�!���������$&��%� �������� #� �����97����+��+"-� 1�(���1��.)�� -+#1ก� ���1�� FTA 1�(1&�ก&d&�/%34,#���� #���6����?)+�� 7�.���!��� )��1�(�&/��&�
!�ก���8ก�� '���� ก�� ��&&ก���� #�$&�-/�-��%� ��6�!���ก&)� ��/%3�������$89� (Demand Boom) ��กก��$������/�������ก��$&��%� �%��#&�ก���7��$#���� 7��(.����';3&4,#4�ก��!��� )�� 4��(�(1�ก$&�ก���7��$#� 1����;3&�����97����+��4����+��ก�������$89�4��k 2547 ��6��#��� /7�4.#&)� ����&'������/+1/��������$89��,��ก�� /%3 7���2 �;& �&/��&� +����9� �"���� ��&&ก/%3�'�3�$89� ��6�!���ก Positive Demand Shock ก�����;& �ก�+��ก Demand Shift /%3/�9�����1�(������ก�� ��&&ก��������'�3�$89�'�#&�< ก�� ��กก���ก�����;3&�/%3-���� #�&)� �� (Move along demand curve)
?8�1�#�����#&�ก������ #�=��4���(�/�$&��%��(�������$89� 1��';9�/%3�'�(��"ก�%�7�ก�+ �'��(��6�';,�$��#&� �%��8� ����?��"ก���-+#�'%�����';9�/%3�/����9� /7�4.#��&+����/%3!�����-�� ����?$���';9�/%3�'�(��"ก-+#��ก��ก ��(ก&�ก��-/� ��6�!"# ��&&ก��� 7��(.������4.2�$&���ก����กก��� 50 �k /7�4.#�%��( �ก���1�(����'�#&�/�9�4���;3&������'%��'& 1�(�)�=�' ���#� �(��ก��$� ��/�9�=��4���(�/� 1�(4�ก�� ��&&ก "�ก�����(�/�&;3��+����%���/%�� ��(ก&�ก�� ���� ��'��0�(.������(�/�/%3+%��&ก������� /7�4.#-/�-+#���%��/���#��.�;&�"�1$����ก
��;3&'������?8��"�1$�� �('���� &���+�%�`%� �%ก�� ��&&ก-��%��#&��'%���#&��( 5 4��k 2548 /�9�/%3�����&����+4��%���กก����#&��( 60 4��k 2543 1 +���� &���+�%�`%� �%!�!���-���'%��'&��&ก����ก�����+/�9�/%3�%!�!���-��������ก-/���ก��ก ��;3&���ก�%&)� ��4���(�/���ก $�(/%3��%�+��� ����?$������+4��%���ก$89� 1��';9�/%3�%�7�ก�+ �+�';9�/%3/%3�%&�"� ����?��"ก';,&;3�/%3�%�"�����'�3���กก��� ��(ก&�ก��-/�1�(��%�+����%ก��1������+ ��&&ก&����,�+��� �+���%�+��� ��&&ก4.#ก��������1&�ก&d&�/��+#��4�#$&��%��+�4,#/����;&/���&�4�#��6�.��ก -+#1ก� /����;& Beihai 1�( Fangcheng $�(/%3-/� ��-����/����;&/��+#���&�ก���$&���(�/� �;& /����;& Qingtao �';3&ก�(��� ���#�4.#ก��������1&�ก&d&�4�������+��ก���� /7�4.#/�9���%�+��� 1�(&���+�%�`%�-��4,��"�1$��$&�-/� `83�!���(��,�/%3-/�-+#�����กก��/7� FTA -��-+#/7�4.# ���1������+$&�-/�ก�&�1�(.�����ก/%3 FTA �%!�������4,#1�ก����ก��
�&ก��ก�%9 !���กก��������(.�,��������4���;9&��#� '���� &)� ��4�1&�ก&d&�/%34,#���� #���6����?)+�� 7�.���!����&/��&� 1�( )�� ��6����1��/%3�%!���&&)� ��ก���7��$#����� #���ก�%���ก $�(/%3���1�� FTA �%!��#&�ก����+����%���/%��
+����9� ก������� FTA /%3.���������+��� -/�-+#���!���(��,���9� ��กก���8ก��'���� !�ก���ก��+)�ก���#�ก���%�4�+#�� ���#��ก��� �+��@'�(��� 7��(.��� ��6�!���กก��$������$&���� 7��(.������ Demand Boom ��กก�����6�!���ก FTA ��;3&��6��,����9� ก����+ ��4�/7�$#&�ก�� FTA �+�4,#!� Policy Simulation ��ก1���7��&� GTAP ����(��6� Upper bound $&�!���ก 1��4�������6������%1����#��(�37�ก�����9� 4�ก����(����!� FTA ����(�#&��7��8�?8��Z����1�+�#&�/%3-��&�"�4�1���7��&� GTAP �$#�����6�&����(ก&�4�ก����+ ��4�+#�� �+��@'�( $#&�"��,���8ก/%3��4����ก�� ���#� 7���2�7���6��#&�'����������"�-�ก�� Policy Simulation ��ก1���7��&� GTAP 1�(����%ก���8ก��4���ก��(+��ก���� 7�.���$#&�ก��/%3-+#�����!���-�1�#�&�����(�&%�+ �';3&4,#��6� Lesson Learned 7�.���ก7�.�+��������&-�4�&����
).*!$4
1. ���� 7���2$&��Z2.� vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv
2. ��� 7��(.���ก��=���ก���4������ก��-/� vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv.
3. ก�&�1����+4�ก���8ก�� ............... vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv.............
4. ����8ก��4�&+%� 1�(��(�+5�$#& ���ก��'�3����� vvvvvvvvvvvvvvv
5. ��0%ก���8ก�� vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv...
6. FTA ก��ก�� ��&&ก��� 7��(.���$&�-/�-��%� vvvvvvvvvvvvvv.. 6.1 �/��/$&�-/�4�ก����6�!"# ��&&ก��� 7��(.���/%3 7���2$&���ก 1�($&��%� .... 6.2 &)� ��$&��%� vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv.. 6.3 &)�/��$&��%� vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv. 6.4 ก��!���1&�ก&d&�$&��%� vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv...................... 6.5 ��.�)/%3�%��#&��7��$#����� #���ก-/� vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv. 6.6 ��.�)/%3ก��$������$&�ก�� ��&&ก�8�-��-+#��6�!���ก FTA 1���'%��&�����+%�� v
7. !�ก��������(.�,�������� ...vvvvvvvvvvvvv.....................................
8. �)�1�($#&� �&1�(vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv.....................................
������)ก��vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv..
=��!��ก 1 �����;�.�#�ก��������$�ก���#�� �%$&�-/� � 'w���ก��� 2550 ....vv
=��!��ก 2 ก���8ก��!�ก�(/�$#&�ก��ก���#�� �%$&�-/� .....vvvvvvvvv
=��!��ก 3 $#&�ก���$�ก���#�� �%&��`%��-�%� (ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement)
=��!��ก 4 !�ก�� 7���� vvvvv.vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv
1
3
5
11
13
16 16 20 24 25 27 28
30
32
34
37
38
40
42
).*!$45067.8 59:;.*.<
1!�=�' 1 : !���กก��+7�����ก���#����$#&�ก�� FTA -/�-�%� ....................................
1!�=�' 2 : 5 /����� ���� �#�� GDP �(.����=���ก���1�(&)� �.ก���$&�-/� ..
1!�=�' 3 : &)� ��1�(&)�/��!���=��z��� 7��(.���$&�-/��k 2549 .......................
1!�=�' 4 : !�ก���ก���กก����+�ก5�=��%�7��$#� ก��%��(�/���5ก.....................................
1!�=�' 5 : !�ก���ก���กก����+�ก5�=��%�7��$#� ก��%��(�/�4.2�...................................
1!�=�' 6 : !�ก���ก���กก����+�ก5�=��%�7��$#� 1�( Demand shift ก��%��(�/�4.2�.....
1!�=�' 7 : � #�&)� ��/%3 Shift -���� #�&)�/��............................................................
1!�=�' 8 : &)�/����� 7��(.���$&���ก vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv...
1!�=�' 9 : ��ก�=�'ก��!������ 7��(.���$&�ก�)����(�/�4��&�,%� vvvvvvv.
1!�=�' 10 : ก�����%3��1���/��/�����+�(.�������� #� 1�(�����5+$&�-/� ............
1!�=�' 11 : ก�� ��&&ก���� #�$&�-/� ���%���/%�����,��������(.�����k 2538-2549
1!�=�' 12 : �����97����+"-� ...........................................................................................
1!�=�' 13 : �#�/)����?)+��4�ก��!����&/��&�/%3!"#!����%��!,�2 1�( �+ ����97�� %� /%3-+#��กก��!��� vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv..
1!�=�' 14 : &)� ��$&�1&�ก&d&�$&��%� 1�ก������?)��( �� ................................
1!�=�' 15 : &)� ����&��� 7��(.���/%3!���4��%� ..........................................................
1!�=�' 16 : ';9�/%3�'�(��"ก��� 7��(.���$&��%� 1�ก�����;&�/%3��"ก ...........................
1!�=�' 17 : 1.���!���1&�ก&d&�/%3 7���24��%� ..........................................................
1!�=�' 18 : ��;&�/%3?"ก������4,#�,;9&�'�����ก�&/��&� ...................................................
1!�=�' 19 : �+ ���ก���7��$#���� 7��(.���$&��%� 1�ก�����(�/��"��#�......................
1!�=�' 20 : 1 +��7�1.���/����;&/%3-/� 1�(��%�+���4,#4�ก�� ��&&ก........................
1!�=�' 21 : ��.�)ก���������$&��"����ก�� ��&&ก��� 7��(.���-��%� .........................
1!�=�' 22 : �Z����/%3��6����ก7�.�+&)� ��ก���7��$#����� #�$&��%� ��ก-/� ...............
1!�=�' 23 : ����1�(���������� #�$&�-/�/%3 ��&&ก-��%� vvv...........................
����� 1 : !"#�7��$#� 1�(������ก���7��$#����� #�$&��%� 4��k 2548 .................................
2
4
5
6
7
8
15
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
31
31
26
1
1. ��������� ������
����ก����ก��� �� (Free Trade Agreements : FTA) � !����ก��"�#��$"%�&'�(�) 2 ��$"%�+'!,� -�����ก���$./)�ก&! 012-��3.-245#��1.�5�,-)ก6789�%:�กก�82;!ก�:)- -<=ก (�$">;.��:� ���"�ก���!��2"�# :1 (�)2&���;<�89�%:�กก�;!�&���ก�=ก&7��$"%!�กก�:)- -<=ก ?+#�����ก��1&�ก�)/-�ก�$( ก���7�&7@ก"&#/0�ก (�$�22�&/-ก �&'�(�)�A 1990 (2533)1 � !��!- !5#��@กก�@�@ก���4.:8��������Fก�ก���0�ก (World Trade Organization : WTO) -��/-�)<�-ก @กก�"�#-���$"%"�#ก�#2/����-ก (�$��$16!ก�@�@���7��:-;!/�ก/�� ">;.�ก�7���:����ก��� !,�1�/2�/-2ก�>7ก !�ก@ก!�' ก�@�@�-ก��71&�ก�)/ -��/-422-">;.���$"%ก>�&�4&M!,1��&7N���$02<!F"�#"&1"�2-ก&7��$"%"�#4&M!(��/ ก�.@:1 -1:�1�!N���$02<!F2)�-,-) -�O">,1�012�)2 1&�!&'! ก�:)-��$"%�)� P @+��=#-.&!-@�@;!�$1&7"/=8��-ก�+'! 45#��1@>!/!�Q)@�@ (�$;.� -�O�R1 ��"�ก����6/�+'! ("!ก�@�@�-ก��7 WTO
��$"%,"2� !��$"%.!+#�"�#ก�$�5��5���!;!ก���!- FTA �S@@:7&! ���-Q����ก�-@�@ก����$./)���$"% 15�!4T%@=ก2! 2550 47/) ,"2-��/-422-@�@��ก��� ��O+� 15 U7&7 �S@@:7&!-�ก���!- FTA (��/ 6 U7&7 (� !ก���!-7� )/! 1 U7&7 (�$�2ก� )/!"�#.�5��2Q)�$./)�ก�@�@) �2Q)�$./)�ก�@�@O+� 7 U7&7 .2:1@�@<&#/��/ 1 U7&7 (�$2ก�=กก�@�@ 1 U7&7 (8�N!/ก 1) �2)�,�ก6�- 2&�,-)-��!%+ก9ก�#2/ก&7 FTA ;!<=��+ก;!�2 =!�� 012U4$�2)�2=#�ก���,�4=@�X�2 =!��"�# FTA -�N�7&��&7;<�(��/ !5#��@ก�!%+ก9 )/!;.Y)-:)���$-=!N�"�1�! /& 1=ก����ก�"> FTA N)!ก�"> Policy Simulation Experiments ���(77@>��� Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) 012U4$(77@>��� Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)2 (8�N!/ก 2) (-� Policy Simulation Experiments @$ -�O4=@�X� ! Upper Bound ���N�7/ก"�# FTA@$-��)�ก�ก�$�:�!ก���?+#�� ! =#�"�#@>� !;!<)/�ก����2-��!- (�)!5#��@ก(!/0!�-"�#��$"%�)�P ;!0�ก2&���;<� FTA � !��5#��-5�;!ก��R1��1 1&�!&'! ก�%+ก9<=��+ก;!�2 =!��012/=��$.F���-Q�ก����$./)���$"%ก)�! (�$.�&�ก���!- FTA �/-O+�ก�/=��$.F�i=ก=�=2���NQ� )���ก"�#;<� ="j= FTA @�=�!)@$<)/2 �=-�/-��;@ก�#2/ก&7N�ก�$"7��� FTA 012U4$�2)�2=#�N��)�ก� )���ก"�#� !.&/;@"�#��$"%ก>�&�4&M!�)��1./&�@กก�"> FTA
1 �<!&! ก$,47Q�2F, lก������������������ : ��ก������� !"��#���!��� !"�m, �X$%�9n% ��F
-./="2�&2j��-% ��F, 2549, .!� 1.
2 (77@>��� GTAP � !(77@>���"�#4&M!012-./="2�&2 Purdue ��$"% .�&n�-�=ก "�#,"2;<�� !��5#��-5�.�&ก;!ก���$-=!N� FTA N)!�!%+ก9;!.�2 O7&! -�O1Q�2�$��21���(77@>���,1�;! www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu
2
!�ก@ก!&'!N�ก�/=��$.F@$<)/24=#-�/-(-)!2>;!ก��1ก�XFก� )���ก?+#�� !ก�@&ก� >�&Y;!ก��&7��5#�!%�9nก=@;!�S@@:7&!(�$� !��$02<!F;!ก�ก>.!1!0272%�9nก[email protected]�
ก�%+ก9!�' ,1��5�ก%+ก9����ก����ก��� ��,"2-@�! 82;��ก��7����ก�� FTA �?�2!-@�! (8�N!/ก 3) !5#��@ก� !����ก��(�ก"�#-�N�7&��&7;<� 012%+ก9;! =!��ก�:)-(�ก"�#-�ก�">����ก�� �5� ก�:)-�)��189�,"2-@�! .-/1 Harmonize 07-08 ,1�(ก) N&ก(�$N�,-� "�#�2Q);!ก�:)- Early Harvest �������ก�� (ก�:)-"�#-�%&ก2841�!ก����$./)�ก&!) @+��)��189��$./)�ก&!;.�.�5����2�$ 0 82;!/&!"�# 1 �:��- 2546 ก)�! =!��ก�:)-�5#! 012 =!��"�#;<� ="j=!�';!ก� )���ก,�@�!-ก"�# :1 �5� N�=�8&XvF-&! >�$.�&� ;!�Q�-&! �! �2Q);!.-/1 0714 012;!�A 2549 -� &1 )/!-Q��)ก� )���ก-กก/)���2�$ 80 ���-Q��)ก� )���ก =!��;!.-/1 07 (�$ 08 ((N!84 1) (�$-Q��)ก� )���ก�22�&/-กก/) 10 ") ;!<)/�.�2�A"�#N)!- @!">;.�.�2wx2-��/) � !N�@กก���!-;!����ก��1&�ก�)/ !�ก@ก!�' �&'�(�) FTA -�N�7&��&7;<� 47/) �� )���กU��#2"�# Q��+'!O+����2�$ 36 (�2�$��214=#-�=-;!.&/��� 6) -กก/)"�#NQ���$ก�7ก�,1��&7@กก��189��-����ก��"�#,1�4�2����2�$ 10 -ก ?+#�;!"�"T9y��$7:/) ก�2ก�=ก89�!>���$./)�ก&!�����$"%�Q)�� ก�X���$"%;.Y) ก�)/�5� ,"2� !NQ� )���ก�2;.Y) (�$@�!� !�Q)���2;.Y) �/�@$">;.��� =!��"�#NQ�7�=08�N<=Y�1�� (�$">;.���=-Xก� )���ก�22�&/ (�)"�1�!NQ� )���ก ��"�#N<=Y -�O��&7�&/�+'!,1�(�),-)-ก!&ก !5#��@ก� ! =!��ก9��"�#-��/-251.2:)!�)����#> (�2�$��214=#-�=-;!.&/��� 3) (�)">;.�-Q��)ก� )���ก4=#-�+'! "/)�&/��75'����!47/)��"�#NQ� )���ก,1��&7ก�&7(4��+'!-ก ?+#��&1(2��ก&7"T9y� (�$O+�(-���@$�)��&/�+'!-ก ก�&7">;.���=-Xก� )���ก�)��&/�+'!�-,�1�/2 @+�� !,�,1�-ก/) !)@$-�.�:N�;!ก� !&7 !:!ก��22�&/1&�ก�)/ -กก/)ก��22�&/"�#ก=1@ก����ก�� ">;.�ก�%+ก9;!<=��+ก;! =!��<!=1!�' @+�-��/- >�&Y;!ก���$-=!N� FTA ,"2-@�! ,1�
(N!84 1 : N�@กก�1>!=!ก����-����ก�� FTA �?�2!-@�! (;! =!��ก�:)-�)��189�,"2-@�!)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 25490
20
40
60
80
100
มลูคาการนําเขาหมวดผักผลไม (HS 07&08)
มลูคาการสงออกหมวดผักผลไม (HS 07&08)
มลูคาการสงออกมนัสําปะหลัง (HS 0714)
สัดสวนการสงออกมนัสําปะหลังตอหมวดผักผลไม (RHS)
������� ����
FTA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 25490
20
40
60
80
100
มลูคาการนําเขาหมวดผักผลไม (HS 07&08)
มลูคาการสงออกหมวดผักผลไม (HS 07&08)
มลูคาการสงออกมนัสําปะหลัง (HS 0714)
สัดสวนการสงออกมนัสําปะหลังตอหมวดผักผลไม (RHS)
������� ����
FTA
3
0��� ����2�!ก�%+ก9U7&7!�' ��$ก�71�/2 (1) �/- >�&Y����SY. (2) -&! >�$.�&�ก&78�ก9��;!%�9nก=@,"2 (3) ก��7(!/�=1;!ก�%+ก9 (4) �!%+ก9;!�1�� (�$��$16!��� &�ก�4=#-�=- (5) /=j�ก�%+ก9 (6) ก���$-=!N� FTA ,"2-@�! �)�-&! >�$.�&� (7) N�ก�/=��$.F<=���=-X (8) �:�(�$��� !�(!$
2. � �����%�ก&����ก'(�) ���'*ก!�+�"
0��� ���"�%�9nก=@,"2���#2!@ก8�ก9��,� Q)8��:� .ก��- (�$-��/-<&1@!�+'! �&'�(�)�A 2529 � !��!- .�&�@ก-�ก�2�2n!ก�N�=�@ก��$"%�:� .ก��-;.-) (NIEs) ��-;!,"2 ">;.�ก�N�=� =!���:� .ก��-45#�ก� )���ก�22�&/�2)��/1�6/ �X$"�#8�ก9��7"7"�1��012���27"�27 �2)��)�!5#�� (N!84 2 ( 1�0��� ��� GDP �$./)�8�ก9��(�$�:� .ก��-���,"2 ;!�$2$ 5 "%/��9"�#N)!- 47/) �&'�(�)�A 2501 %�9nก=@,"24+#�4=�8�ก9��� !.�&ก �=1� ! &1 )/! Q�O+����2�$ 35 ��� GDP �X$"�#8��:� .ก��--� &1 )/!4�2����2�$ 15 �2)�,�ก6�- 8�ก9��OQก�1�/- >�&Y���2)��)�!5#�� (�$"1("!1�/28��:� .ก��--012���1 (�$;!�A 2519 � !��&'�(�ก"�# &1 )/!���8��:� .ก��--กก/)8�ก9�� (�)�/-(�ก�)�2&�,-)<&1@!!&ก @!ก�$"&#��A 2529 "�#-�ก�2�2n!ก�N�=�@ก��$"%�:� .ก��-;.-)��-;!,"2 (�$8��:� .ก��-"�#�2N�=�45#�"1("!ก�!>��� !.�&ก ���#2!� !N�=�45#�ก� )���ก� !.�&ก )�N�;.��!18��:� .ก��-�22�&/;!�&���)��2)��)�!5#�� @!O+��S@@:7&! 2ก/�! ;!<)/�ก=1/=กT�=%�9nก=@ �A 2540 ">;.�8��:� .ก��-.1�&/;!�A�)�- (�$2&� -�O�22�&/,1��)�!5#��;!�AO&1,� �X$"�#8�ก9��2&����=70��2)�<� P (�$-��!14=#-�+'!�)�!5#��<)!ก&! ก�)/�5� (-�/) @$ก=1/=กT�=;!8��:� .ก��- (�)8�ก9��2&����22�&/�)�!5#�� 1&�!&'! O+�(-�8��:� .ก��-@$�22�&/-ก4�2�;1 (�)8�ก9�� ก6���27 -5�!�/--&#!��82;!"�#��2 !&7 !:!ก�@�=Y�=70������$"% (�$-���� &�ก� �5� �&'�(�)�A 2536 � !��!- &1 )/!8�ก9��;! GDP �)�!�����"�#�2Q);!�$1&7���2�$ 9-10 O+�(-�@$-�ก���5#�!,./7��(�)�2Q);!<)/�(�7P 82;! &1 )/!1&�ก�)/ � !,�,1�/) 8�ก9��,1���&7 &1 )/!-O+�@:1 -1:� >.�&70��� ���%�9nก=@,"2(��/ 012;!�A 2549 &1 )/!8��:� .ก��-(�$8�ก9��;! GDP ")ก&7���2�$ 39 (�$���2�$ 9 �-�>1&7
4
(N!84 2 : 5 "%/��9 0��� ��� GDP �$./)�8�ก9��(�$�:� .ก��-���,"2
=!��ก9��"�#� !45<N�.�&ก<!=1.!+#����,"2-�&'�(�)�1�� �5� -&! >�$.�&� "�#-�ก� )���ก-!!ก/) 50 �A3 (�$�S@@:7&! 2&���-��/- >�&Y;!�>1&7(�ก P !5#��@ก� !45<"�#">�2,1�;.�ก9��ก�-ก� !�&!1&7 4 ���@ก2�4� ���2 (�$��/ (�2,1�U��#2 5 �A �$./)� 2541-2545) 012;!�A 25494 -�45'!"�#4$��Qก 6.7 ��!,�) �=1� ! 1 ;! 4 ���45'!"�#4$��Qก45<,�)"&'�.-1 (�$-กก/)��+#�.!+#��2Q);!8��$/&!��กU�2�.!5� "�#-�45<%�9nก=@ >�&Y >.�&7��Qก�)/-ก&!;!45'!"�# ,1�(ก) ���2 (�$2�4� !�ก@ก!�' -�@>!/!��&/�5�!"�#ก�#2/����"&'�.-1O+� 476,352 ��&/�5�! �=1� !���2�$ 8.25 �����&/�5�!;!8�ก9��"&'�.-1 (�$-�-Q��)ก� )���ก�=1� !���2�$ 11.8 ���-Q��)ก� )���ก =!��;!8�ก9��
�:�"!.&/-&! >�$.�&�"&'�.-1 ;!�A 2549 ��$-X 25.3 ��!�&! OQก(7)�,�;<�;!ก�N�=�(�3�-&!���2�$ 59 -&! �!(�$-&!�&1-61�/-���2�$ 40 "�#.�5����2�$ 1 >.�&7N�=��"!�� 012(�3�-&! @$OQก )���ก,��)���$"%���2�$ 80 (�$;<�;!��$"%���2�$ 20 >.�&7-&! �!(�$-&!�&1-61@$OQก )���ก-กO+����2�$ 85 ���N�N�=�"&'�.-1 (7)�� !ก� )���ก-&! �! Q�O+����2�$ 77 012ก5�7"&'�.-1 )���ก,�@�! (�$-&!�&1-614�2����2�$ 8 �X$"�#-�ก�;<�;!��$"%45#�N�=�� !�.� &�/F���2�$ 15 ���N�N�=�"&'�.-1 ((N!84 3)
3 ก�-/=<ก�ก9�� http://www.doa.go.th/pl_data/CASS/1STAT/st01.html
4 >!&ก�!%�9nก=@ก�ก9��
�!18��:� .ก��-(�$8�ก9�����,"2
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2501 2505 2509 2513 2517 2521 2525 2529 2533 2537 2541 2545 2549
� %��
��
Agriculture
Manufacturing
"�#- : >!&ก�!�X$ก��-ก�4&M!ก�%�9nก=@(�$ &��-(.)�<�=
&1 )/!8��:� .ก��-(�$8�ก9�����,"2;! GDP
0
10
20
30
40
2501 2505 2509 2513 2517 2521 2525 2529 2533 2537 2541 2545 2549
�@���
�A
Agriculture
Manufacturing
"�#- : >!&ก�!�X$ก��-ก�4&M!ก�%�9nก=@(�$ &��-(.)�<�=
5
(N!84 3 : �:� ��F(�$�:�"!N�=�8&XvF-&! >�$.�&����,"2�A 2549
3. ก� &B ��!@) ก���Cก'�
����ก����ก��� �� .�5� FTA � ! Preference Trade Agreement ��$8".!+#� "�#��$"%�&'�(�) 2 ��$"%�+'!,� -�����ก��@$�1.�5�,-)ก6789�%:�กก��$./)�ก&! >.�&7 =!��"�#N�=� .�5�-�ก�(���Q��2)�-�!&2 >�&Y82;!��$"% -<=ก")!&'! ;!�X$"�#�&��89�%:�กก�"�#��$"% -<=ก(�)�$��$"%ก67ก&7 =!��@ก��$"%�5#! P "�#-=;<) -<=ก�+'!�2Q)ก&7!0272���(�)�$��$"% -<=ก 1&�!&'! FTA @+�� !ก��R1 �� ;!�&ก9X$ก��5�ก�i=7&�="�#�5'���$02<!FU4$ก&7��$"% -<=ก "�#-�(!/0!�-@$ก�$�:�!ก����$./)���$"% -<=ก4=#--ก�+'! (Trade Creation) ?+#�N�ก�$"7@กก�">����ก����ก��� �� -�O(7)�� !
3.1 D%���@�� ����B%�� �@ก�����
;!"�"T9y� @$(7)�ก�/=��$.FN�@ก Trade Creation � ! 2 ก�X�5 �5�
5 !=4!jF 4&/4�%ก�, 7"/=@�XF �5#�� l��ก��� ��� !��$02<!F�)� =!��ก9��.�5�,-) : ก�X�ก���-&!
>�$.�&�82.�&�����ก��ก��� ���?�2!-@�!, �ก ���$ก�7ก� &--!<=��i=7&�=ก���$@>15�! j!��(.)���$"%,"2, 11 -ก��- 2551. (�$ Robert M.Dunn Jr. & John H.Mutti, International Economics, 6th Edition.
�:� ��F (�$�:�"!N�=�8&XvF-&! >�$.�&����,"2 �A 2549
B�E�� 59%
Export 80%
Domestic 20%
"�#- : >!&ก�!%�9nก=@ก�ก9��
��� �@ 25.28 %�� (
Export � ��� 77% (China 99%, Other 1%)
Domestic 15% � ��� /
@��I@ 40%
� �� % 1%
Export
� ��I@ 8%
6
1. ก�X���$"%�6ก
--�=;.� ��$"% A � !NQ�!>��"�#-�ก����!1�6ก 1&�!&'! ก����#2!(���;1 P ;!��$"% A @$,-)-�N��)�%�9nก=@0�ก;!84�/- 82;����1(�)��&! -7Q�XF 012;.���$"% A -� �!�:� ��F (�$�:�"!;!��$"%;! =!�� X �5� �! D (�$ Shome �-�>1&7 (�$ �! Sworld �5��:�"!;!��10�ก (�$��!":!ก�N�=�012U��#2�����$"% A ;!ก�N�=� =!�� X -กก/)��"�#,1��&7;!��10�ก ((N!84 4)
(N!84 4 : N�ก�2ก�=กก�@&1ก6789�!>�� ก�X���$"%�6ก 82;��ก��71:�2847� )/! (Partial Equilibrium Framework)
1=- ก)�! FTA -�N�7&��&7;<� -�ก�ก6789�!>�� (Tariff) ">;.���"�#
NQ�7�=08�;!��$"% A ,1��&7�2Q)�5� OPd �)�.!)/2 7! �! Sworld+tariff ?+#�� ! �!�:�"!�����10�ก"�#�/-N�ก�@&1ก6789�!>�� PdPw �)�.!)/2 ">;.� ��$"% A -�O7�=08� OQ3 N�=�"�# OQ2 (�$!>�� Q2Q3 .�&�@ก"�# FTA -�N�7&��&7;<� ">;.�,-)-�ก�ก6789�!>�� ��"�#NQ�7�=08�;!��$"% A �1��� ! OPw �)�.!)/2 �-�:�"!;!��10�ก�5� �! Sworld 1&�!&'! ��$"% A -�O7�=08�4=#-�+'!� ! OQ4 N�=�"�# OQ1 (�$!>�� Q1Q4
1&�!&'! ;!ก�X�ก��189�!>�������$"%�6ก @$">;.��$1&7��"�#NQ�7�=08�;!��$"%,1��&7�#>���-����10�ก"�#,1��&7 @ก OPd � ! OPw �)�.!)/2 �X$"�#��"�#��$"%NQ� )���ก,1��&7��"�# �5� OPw �)�.!)/2 !�ก@ก!�' 2&�">;.���=-Xก���4=#-�+'!@ก Q2Q3 � ! Q1Q4 ?+#�� !ก�4=#-�+'!@กก�2ก�=กก�@&1ก6789�!>�� :"j= ")ก&7 Q1Q2 �/-ก&7 Q3Q4
Shome
Sworld + tariff
SworldDQuantity
Price
Q4Q3Q2Q1O
PdPw
Shome
Sworld + tariff
SworldDQuantity
Price
Q4Q3Q2Q1O
PdPw
7
2) ก�X���$"%;.Y)
--�=;.� ��$"% A � !NQ�!>���!1;.Y) 1&�!&'! ก����#2!(���;1 P ;!��$"% A @$-�N��)�%�9nก=@0�ก;!84�/- 012"�#��$"% A -� �!�:� ��F (�$�:�"!;!��$"%;! =!�� X �5� �! D (�$ Shome �-�>1&7 (�$ Sworld �5��:�"!;!��10�ก (�$��!":!ก�N�=�012U��#2�����$"% A ;!ก�N�=� =!�� X -กก/)��"�#,1��&7;!��10�ก ((N!84 5)
(N!84 5 : N�ก�2ก�=กก�@&1ก6789�!>�� ก�X���$"%;.Y) 82;��ก��71:�2847� )/! (Partial Equilibrium Framework)
1=- ก)�! FTA -�N�7&��&7;<� -�ก�ก6789�!>��">;.���"�#NQ�7�=08�;!��$"% A ,1��&7�2Q)�5� OPd �)�.!)/2 7! �! Sworld+tariff ?+#�� ! �!�:�"!�����10�ก"�#�/-N�ก�@&1ก6789�!>�� PdPw2 �)�.!)/2 (�$��;!��10�ก�2Q)"�# OPw2 (��"�#��$"%NQ� )���ก,1��&7) ">;.� ��$"% A -�O7�=08� OQ3 N�=�"�# OQ2 (�$!>�� Q2Q3 .�&�@ก"�# FTA -�N�7&��&7;<� ">;.�,-)-�ก�ก6789�!>�� ��"�#NQ�7�=08�;!��$"% A ,1��&7� ! OPw1 �)�.!)/2 �-�:�"!;!��10�ก�5� �! Sworld 1&�!&'! ��$"% A -�O7�=08�4=#-�+'!� ! OQ4 N�=�"�# OQ1 (�$!>�� Q1Q4
1&�!&'! ;!ก�X�ก��189�!>�������$"%;.Y) @$">;.��$1&7��"�#NQ�7�=08�;!��$"%,1��&7�1��@ก OPd � ! OPw1 �)�.!)/2 (�)�$1&7��"�#��$"%NQ� )���ก,1��&74=#-�+'!@ก OPw2 � ! OPw1 �)�.!)/2 (�$��=-Xก���4=#-�+'!@ก Q2Q3 � ! Q1Q4 ?+#�� !ก�4=#-�+'!@กก�2ก�=กก�@&1ก6789�!>�� :"j= ")ก&7 Q1Q2 �/-ก&7 Q3Q4
Shome
Sworld + tariff
Sworld
D
Quantity
Price
Q4Q3Q2Q1O
PdPw1Pw2
Shome
Sworld + tariff
Sworld
D
Quantity
Price
Q4Q3Q2Q1O
PdPw1Pw2
8
!�ก@ก!�' O�.กN!/กN�ก��189�!>�� �/-ก&7�:� ��F�)�!5#��@ก�S@@&282!�ก">;.��:� ��F;! =!�� X �����$"%NQ�!>���2;.Y)�)��&/ )�N�;.� Demand Shift @ก �! D � ! �! D� @$ )�N�">;.��$1&7��;.-)"�#NQ�7�=08�,1��&7�2Q)"�# OPw3 �)�.!)/2 (�$��=-X!>�� Q5Q6 ((N!84 6) (�$��$"%NQ� )���ก@$,1��&7��4=#-�+'!� ! OPw3 �)�.!)/2
(N!84 6 : N�ก�2ก�=กก�@&1ก6789�!>�� (�$ Demand Shift ก�X���$"%;.Y) 82;��ก��71:�2847� )/! (Partial Equilibrium Framework)
;!ก�X�ก���-&! >�$.�&��$./)�,"2(�$@�!!&'! @�!� !NQ�!>��-&! �!4�2���$"%1�2/;!0�ก�X$!�' �X$"�#,"2� !NQ� )���ก�2;.Y) 1&�!&'! -5#�-�ก��189��$./)�ก&!82;������ก�� @+�� !,�,1�"�#�� )���กNQ� )���ก,"2,1��&7@$4=#-�+'! (�),-)!)@$4=#-�+'!-ก !5#��@ก -&! >�$.�&�� ! =!��ก9�� "�#-�j&Y45<�5#!"1("!,1� (�$ก� Stock =!��� !,�,1�2ก ">;.� �!�:�"!��10�ก"�#@�!N<=Y@+�-��/-251.2:)! Q�-ก �2)�,�ก6�- O�.ก�:� ��F@ก@�!�)��&/�+'! @$-��/-� !,�,1�"�#��@$�)��&/�+'!-ก "&'�!�' �+'!ก&7�!1ก����#2!(������ �!�:� ��F ( )/!�)��$./)� �! D (�$ D�)
3.2 D%���@�� ���@!ก��6
@ก"�#ก�)/-(��/;!75'����!/) FTA � !ก��R1 �� ;!�&ก9X$ก��5�ก�i=7&�="�#�5'���$02<!FU4$ก&7��$"% -<=ก "�#-�(!/0!�-@$ก�$�:�!ก����$./)���$"% -<=ก4=#--ก�+'! (Trade Creation) 1&�!&'! �/- -�O;!ก��22�!1ก��������$"% -<=ก �+'!�2Q)ก&7�&��89�!>��"�#��$"% -<=กก>.!1�2Q)1=- ก�)/�5� O���$"% -<=ก-�89�!>���#>�2Q)(��/ -�(!/0!�-">
6 (!/�=1ก�/=��$.F ,1��&7��$02<!F@กก��7(!/�=1ก�%+ก9@ก�!��� �<!&! ก$,47Q�2F, ก�����
������������� : ��ก������� !"��#���!��� !"�, �X$%�9n% ��F -./="2�&2j��-% ��F, 2549.
Shome
Sworld + tariff
Sworld
D
Quantity
Price
Q4Q3Q2Q1O
PdPw1Pw2 DW
Q6
Pw3
Q5
Shome
Sworld + tariff
Sworld
D
Quantity
Price
Q4Q3Q2Q1O
PdPw1Pw2 DW
Q6
Pw3
Q5
9
;.�ก��22�&/,-)-ก012N� :"j=�)���$"% -<=ก(�)�$��$"%82;�� FTA ,-)@>� !����� !N�1� -�,�
N�1�!�7@กก�"> FTA � !N�@กก�"�# FTA � !ก��5�ก�R1 ��U4$ก&7��$"% -<=ก")!&'! 1&�!&'! @+�-�0�ก �5�กOQก.�5�N=1 �+'!�2Q)ก&7��$ ="j=84ก�N�=� (��!":!ก�N�=�) �����$"%"�#�5�ก"> FTA ก�)/�5� O��5�ก"> FTA ก&7��$"%"�#-���$ ="j=84�#>ก/)��$"%!�ก -<=ก (��!":!ก�N�=������$"% -<=ก Q�ก/)��$"%!�ก -<=ก) ก�"> FTA !&'! @$">;.�ก���7�#2�7!@ก1=-"�#�2!>��@ก��$"%!�ก -<=ก .&!-!>��@ก��$"% -<=ก("! "&'�"�#-���$ ="j=84ก�N�=� Q�ก/) ?+#�;!(�)���NQ�7�=08�;!ก�:)- -<=ก O+�(-�/) �� =!��@$OQก�� (�)��"�#�1��@$!��2ก/)89�!>��"�#�&n���� �2,� )/!�)�OQก!>,��:1.!:!;.�NQ�N�=������$"% -<=ก N��71&�ก�)/��2ก/) Trade Diversion
1&�!&'! -5#��/-N���� Trade Creation (�$ Trade Diversion (��/ N� :"j="�#-��)���$"% -<=ก @+�,-)(!) -�,�/)@$� !7/ก 1&�!&'! ก��R1 ���-ก��7 FTA @+�� !4�2�0�ก "�#@$<)/2;.�NQ�7�=08�;!(�)�$��$"% -�O?5'� =!��@ก��$"%"�#� ! -<=ก�5#!P ;!��"�#OQก�� (�$ )� �=-;.�ก=1ก����$./)���$"% -<=ก4=#-�+'!
"�1�!.!+#� ก��189�!>���$./)���$"% -<=ก�-����ก�� FTA @$ก�$�:�!;.�ก����$./)���$"% -<=ก�22�&/ �-กy/)1�/2�:� ��F (Law of Demand) �X$1�2/ก&!ก��5�ก�i=7&�=">;.���$"% -<=ก,1����27��$"%"�#,-),1�� ! -<=ก ?+#�2&����� �289�!>��;!�&���ก�=">;.�ก���7�#2�7!,� Q)��$"% -<=ก4=#--ก�+'! �2)�,�ก6�- ก�"�#��$"% -<=ก-��= �$;!ก�1>!=!!027289�!>��ก&7��$"%"�#,-),1�� ! -<=ก ">;.��@!>,� Q)�SY.ก��&ก��7!>�� =!��@ก��$"%"�#,-),1�� ! -<=ก-2&���$"% -<=ก"�#-�89�!>���#>ก/) (�$ )��)�,�2&���$"% -<=ก�5#!P �SY.1&�ก�)/ ��2ก/) Trade Deflection
1&�!&'! 45#��3��ก&!�SY.1&�ก�)/ @+�-�ก�/�.�&กกXvF"�#4= Q@!F/) =!��"�# )�@ก��$"%.!+#�,���$"% -<=ก.!+#� ����� ! =!��"�#-�ก�(���Q�.�5�-�ก�;<�/&�O:1=7;!��$"% -<=ก�2)�-�!&2 >�&Yก)�! !&#!�5�"�#-���กy/)1�/2(.�)�ก>!=1 (Rule of origin : Roo) (�);!"��i=7&�= �!/=@&2@>!/!-ก ���/)-�0�ก "�# Roo @$OQก!>-;<�;!ก�ก�1ก&!ก���,1� ก�)/�5� Roo -�0�ก OQกก>.!1;.�(�ก�)�ก&!,��-�&ก9X$��� =!�� (�$;! =!��.!+#� P �@(�ก�)�ก&!,1��-����ก�� (�)ก�-� Roo � !ก�7&��&7;.���$"% -<=ก����;<�<='! )/!.�5�����1>!=!ก�N�=�7��2)�82;!��$"%")!&'! (�$�@7=175�!ก�;<� &1 )/!ก�N�=�@ก�$1&7"�#,1���$ ="j=84 Q� :1,1� (�$./)�<='! )/!!>�� ก&7<='! )/!"�#N�=�82;!��$"% .�5��$./)���$"%"�#� !�Q) &YY (�$��$"%!�ก�Q) &YY FTA) (�$4=#-��!":!ก�N�=� (Implicit Input Tariff) 1&�!&'! .�&กกXvF�)2 P "�# $"��!;.�.6!O+��/-2ก-�)2���ก��i=7&�=�- Roo �5� �$1&7ก�;<�<='! )/!82;!��$"% =!��
10
"�#-�ก�;<�<='! )/!82;!��$"%-ก <)! =!��ก9��(���Q� .�5�;<� Non-traded goods Q� <)! �O2!�F -�0�ก N)! Roo ,1��)2ก/)-5#�"�27ก&7 =!��"�#-�ก�ก�$@2ก�N�=�,��-(.�)�"�#<�#2/<Y(�$-���!":!ก�N�=��#>�2)��:�ก�XF�=�6�"��!=ก F ��5#��;<�,��3 5'�N���5#��!:)�.)- � !��!
!�ก@ก!�' 2&�-���!":!j:�ก��-;!ก�( 1�/) =!��!&'!�i=7&�=�-���ก>.!1��� FTA 012U4$ Roo <)! ก�X� FTA ,"2-@�! NQ� )���ก����ก��ก���F- Certificate of Origin (C/O) (�$ E � !��! ?+#���$16!!�' Krueger (1997,1999) ,1���$-X��!":!"�1�!�ก �"�#ก�#2/����,/� ��$-X���2�$ 3-5 ����� )���ก F.O.B.7
��� &�ก���$ก� :1"�2 �5� ก��R1 ���- FTA ,-),1�.-2�/-/) NQ� )���ก":ก�!"�#@$ )�,���$"%�Q)�� FTA ����;<� ="j=4=%9"�89�!>���- FTA -�,� NQ� )���ก�@@$�5�ก;<�.�5�,-);<�ก6,1� .กN�ก�7=175�!@ก Roo -�-ก (�$4=#-��!":! Q�ก/) -5#�"�27ก&789�!>��"�#NQ� )���ก����@)2;!ก�X�"�#,-);<� FTA (<)��"��ก�=) NQ� )���ก�@@$�5�ก"�#@$ )���ก�-<)��"��ก�=("!ก�;<� FTA (�$ก�-� FTA ก6,-),1�<)/2;.�ก=1 Trade Creation ;!"�# :1
;!ก�X� FTA ,"2-@�! 82;��ก��7 FTA �?�2!-@�! !&'! @กก�%+ก9��� �<!&! ก$,47Q�2F8 47/) 82.�&�@ก����ก��-�N�7&��&7;<� ;!<)/��A 2547-2549 Utilization Rate9 ���-&! >�$.�&� Q�O+����2�$ 100 .-2�/-/) NQ� )���ก-&! >�$.�&����,"2":ก�!"�#����ก� )���ก,�@�!;<� ="j=4=%9"�89�!>���- FTA (�$N���$02<!F"�89�@ก����ก��� ;!.-/1 Harmonize 07 ?+#�-�-&! >�$.�&� � !�2ก�;!.-/12)�2 (0714) �=1� !���2�$ 11.6 1&�!&'! -5#�"�27ก&7��!":!(w�"�j:�ก��-"�#ก=1�+'!�-"�#ก�)/O+�;!75'����!(��/ N���$02<!F"�#,1��&72&��2Q);!�$1&7 Q� @+�">;.�NQ� )���ก-&! >�$.�&����,"2,�@�!-;<� ="j=1&�ก�)/":ก�2
7 ���O+�;! �<!&! ก$,47Q�2F, ก������������������ : ��ก������� !"��#���!��� !"�, �X$%�9n% ��F
-./="2�&2j��-% ��F, 2549, .!�6. 8 Archanun Kohpaiboon, Does FTA Export Creation exist? : Evidence from Thailand, Faculty of
Economics, Thammasat University, Thailand, 2007, Page 14. 9 Utilization Rate = -Q��)ก� )���ก"�#NQ� )���ก��;<� ="j=4=%9"�89�@ก����ก��� ;!ก� )���ก,�@�!
�-"�#-�ก��/7�/-@ก���-Q�;!(77���F- C/O �)�-Q��)ก� )���ก"&'�.-1;! =!��!&'!,�@�!
11
4. �� �Cก'�) @�( B%�����@I �� ���ก(��!X��(!�
1&�"�#ก�)/-(��/�!%+ก9;!�1��"�#ก�#2/���� )/!;.Y)@$� !ก�"> Policy Simulation @ก(77@>��� GTAP10 (77@>��� GTAP � !(77@>�����$8" Computable General Equilibrium 012(77@>���1&�ก�)/O5�/) � !(77@>���"�#1�"�# :1(77@>���.!+#� >.�&7��$-=!N�ก�$"7���ก�@&1�&'���ก��� �� (�$-�ก�;<�ก&!�2)�(4�).�2 !5#��@ก ,1����7��:-��%�9nก=@ >�&Y@>!/!-ก;!0�ก (�$(�)�$��/��$"%��$ก�7,�1�/28�ก�N�=�"�#.�ก.�2(�$(�)�$8�%�9nก=@-��/-<5#�-02�ก&!N)!�&/(��1�!ก� )���ก !>�� (�$ก���5#�!2�2":!�$./)���$"% ">;.�(77@>���!�'!=2-;<�;!ก�%+ก9N����!0272ก����$./)���$"%"�#ก�$"7�)��&/(���)� P ;!�$77%�9nก=@ ,1�(ก) �$1&7N�N�=� /& 1=ก����NQ�7�=08� �$1&7�� =!�� ก� )���ก ก�!>�� (�$ GDP � !��!
;!(�)"T9y�11 (!/ก�/=��$.F(771:�284"&#/,� (General Equilibrium Theory) � !ก�-��844@!F����$77%�9nก=@�2)�@$�+ก��,�;!�$1&7@:�8����":ก )/! (�$;!/�1�2/ก&! ก6422-@&1�Q�(77�/- &-4&!jF�$./)��&/(��.�)!�' ;.�-��/-<5#�-02�ก&!�2)�� !�$77 45#��� Q)1:�2844���-ก&! 1&�!&'! ก��=1�-N�ก�$"7"�#ก=1�+'!�)�!5#��ก&!;!�&ก9X$�Qก0?) @กก����#2!(���!0272;1 P .�5�.�2 P !0272 ก6 -�O">,1��)�!���<&1@! !�ก@ก!�' N���� Policy Simulation Experiments ก6 -�O4=@�X� ! Upper Bound ���N�7/ก"�# FTA@$-��)�ก�ก�$�:�!ก���?+#�� ! =#�"�#@>� !;!<)/�ก����2-��!-1�/2
�2)�,�ก6�- ���@>ก&1"�# >�&Y���ก�;<�(77@>��� GTAP;!ก�%+ก9�2Q)�2)�!��2 3 ��$ก� ��$ก�(�ก (77@>��� GTAP !�'-��&ก9X$� !ก�/&1N� X @:1;1@:1.!+#����/� ">;.�ก�/=��$.FN�7��2)�"�#-�4�/&�� (Dynamic) ,1�,-)<&1@! <)! ก�/=��$.FN�"�1�!ก���-(�$ก���":!-�(!/0!�-�#>ก/)�/-� !@�=� !5#��@ก,-),1��>!+�O+�N�7/ก"�#�@ก=1�+'!@กก� Reinvest .�5�N�@กก���&7�&/"&'�1�!(���!(�$":!
��$ก�"�# �� ก�(7)�8�ก�N�=��)�P ;!(77@>����)�!���"�#@$� !���F�/- ก�)/�5� � !(77@>���"�#��$ก�7,�1�/2��$"%�)�P @>!/!-ก 1&�!&'!ก����2�$��21;!�$1&7�:� .ก��-;!(�)�$��$"%">,1��2)�@>ก&1 (�$ก�;.��/- >�&Y;!�$1&7 =!�� 2&�,-)<&1@! <)! ก�N�=�2�4� (�$-&! >�$.�&� ;!��$"%,"2@&1,1�/)� !8�ก�N�=�"�#;.Y)-ก �X$"�#;!
10 http://www.ftamonitoring.org (�$�2�$��21(77@>���"�# www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu
11 ,1��&7��$02<!F@กก����O+�;! �X$%�9n% ��F @:���ก�XF-./="2�&2, 0���ก�%+ก9/=��$.F
�/-4���-���,"2;!ก�@&1">��ก��� ��, !> !��)� ก�-@�@ก����$./)���$"% ก�$"�/�4X=<2F, =�.�- 2544, .!� 3-1.
12
�)���$"%8�ก�N�=�1&�ก�)/@&1,1�/)� !8�ก�N�=�"�#,-);.Y)!&ก ">;.�N�ก�%+ก9"�#,1�-����@>ก&1;!ก�;.�84;!<=��+กO+�%&ก284U4$�&/��� =!��.�)!�'
��$ก� :1"�2 ก�;<�(77@>��� GTAP ;<����-Q�@ก��� Input-Output � !ก�,ก $"��!O+��/-<5#�-02��$./)� Sector ?+#�;! )/!ก�(7)� Sector ,-) -�O(7)�;.��$��21,1� @+�,1�84ก/�� P <)! ก�X�-&! >�$.�&� �2Q);!.-/1 050 ?+#��/-ก&7(�3�-&! �Q (�$N�4��2,1��)� P ">;.�84,-)<&1@! !�ก@ก!�' ก�/=��$.F<=��:X84 <)! � !=2-���NQ�7�=08�;!��$"%�Q)@�@ (�$�5#�!,�"�# >�&Y7���$ก� <)! ก�7&��&7;<� Rule of Origin 7"7"��� =!��(�)�$<!=1;!��1 ก���2ก�5!89� (�$ก�ก�1ก&!ก���"�#,-);<�89�%:�กก��5#!P ,-) -�O!>��;!ก�"> Policy Simulation ,1�
!�ก@ก!�' @ก7"/=@�XF��� !=4!jF 4&/4�%ก�12 ,1�( 1����@>ก&1������ --�=;!(77@>��� GTAP /) ,1��1ก�XF/) ก�"�#@�!(�$�=!1�2�R1 ����1 =!��ก9��@$-� )�N�;.�ก=1ก�<$���&��ก��1������� =!��ก9��;!0�ก")!&'! (�);!�/-� !@�=� "�0!0�2�1�!<�/4�&��! (Biofuel) (�$!0272<�/4�&��!�����$"%NQ�!>1�!<�/4�&��! �"= .�&n�-�=ก .842:0�� @�! (�$7�?=� ">;.���j&Y45< ?+#��2� !�.�4�2��2)�1�2/ OQกNQก02�ก&7��4�&��! 1&�!&'! (!/0!�-���.�"�#�1�#>��;!%�/��9"�#N)!-ก>�&����#2!"=%"� 4�$/) �:� ��F1�!<�/4�&��! ?+#��S@@:7&! !&ก/=@&2ก>�&�4&M!(77@>��� GTAP ;.�-�ก�N�=�(�$ก�7�=08�<�/4�&��! ">;.�N�ก�%+ก9;!�1��@+�;<�,-),1� ก&7ก�X� =!��ก9��"�#OQก!>,�;<�45#�N�=�<�/4�&��!
;!ก�X��������ก��ก��� �� ASEAN-China �X$%�9n% ��F @:���ก�XF�13 ,1�%+ก9012ก�"> Policy Simulation @ก(77@>��� GTAP Version 5 012;<�n!���-Q�@ก����S@@&2ก�N�=�(�$N�N�=� (Input-Output Table) �A 2001 "�#��$ก�71�/2 57 8�ก�N�=� �/-"&'� ='! 87 ��$"% 45#�/=��$.FN�ก�$"7���ก��189�ก����$./)�ก&!;!<=���=-X �Q)ก&7 1&<!� RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage) 45#�/=��$.F�>(.!)�<=�ก�(�)��&!����:� .ก��-"�# >�&Y�$./)�,"2(�$��$"%;!�?�2!�5#!;!@�! (�$ BCG (Boston Consulting Group) 45#����27"�27%&ก284ก�(�)��&!��� =!��"�# >�&Y !�ก@ก!�' 2&�,1�">ก� >�/@8� !- "&'�;!(�$�)���$"%1�/2
N�ก�%+ก9 47/) N�ก�$"7;!1�!-.8� 47/) GDP (�$�!1ก����$./)���$"% 4=#-�+'!,-)-ก!&ก �X$"�#N�ก�$"7�2 =!�� 47/) ก�:)-"�#-�0�ก ,1��&7N���$02<!F �5� 2�
12 !=4!jF 4&/4�%ก�, 7"/=@�XF �5#�� l��ก��� ��� !��$02<!F�)� =!��ก9��.�5�,-) : ก�X�ก���-&!
>�$.�&�82.�&�����ก��ก��� ���?�2!-@�!, �ก ���$ก�7ก� &--!<=��i=7&�=ก���$@>15�! j!��(.)���$"%,"2, 11 -ก��- 2551.
13 �X$%�9n% ��F @:���ก�XF-./="2�&2, 0���ก�%+ก9N�ก�$"7"�#ก=1@กก��R1 ��ก���
�?�2!-@�!, !> !��)� ก�-@�@ก����$./)���$"% ก�$"�/�4X=<2F, ก&!22! 2548.
13
4� �=ก(�$�R0���-� 2!2!�F ,-��&11�ก -&! >�$.�&� ,.-1=7 �&Y-X�(�$��5#����$1&7 (�)ก�:)-"�#-�0�ก �2��$02<!F �5� < ก�$19 ���F!=@��F ���"� ��5#��;<�,��3 ��5#��!:)�.)- (�$.�6ก
(-�;!ก�%+ก9@$-�ก�">/=@&28� !- (�)2&�-����@>ก&1;!.�2P 1�! )/!.!+#�!)@$� !N�@ก���-Q� X �X$"�#">/=@&22&�,-),1�OQก Reveal �2)�<&1@! <)! �!/=@&2 !�/)ก�;<���$02<!F@ก-&! >�$.�&����@�!45#�!>,�;<�� !�.� &�/F ���2�$ 30 14 (�) =#�"�#47;!ก�%+ก9ก�&7� !ก�!>,�45#�N�=�(��ก����F >.�&7 :� (�$�"!�� 1&�!&'!��� !�(!$<)! 8��&n�/���$< &-4&!jF;.�-�ก�!>,�;<�-ก�+'! 45#�"1("!��/041(�$O&#/.�5�� �/-"&'��/� !&7 !:!;.�-�ก�N -�.� &�/F45#�;.�,1� ��.��-�/-����ก�15 @+�� ! =#�"�#,-)!)@$-�N�-ก!&ก
!�ก@ก!&'! �!/=@&22&�ก&�/�ก&7ก�(�)��&!ก&7-&! >�$.�&�@ก/�21!- �2)�,�ก6�- �/-��;@;!�5#��45'!n!ก�N�=�(�$���-Q�8� !-"�#47;!ก�%+ก9!�'<�'/)-&! >�$.�&�"�# )���ก012/�21!- (7)�(2ก��1ก&7,"2�2)�<&1@! ก�)/�5� /�21!- )/!;.Y) )���ก-&! >�$.�&�;.�ก&70���!(��ก����F"�1�!;�����@�!012;<�")�5�"���!;��� !.�&ก ,1�(ก) ")�5� Beihai (�$ Fangcheng �X$"�#,"2 )�,�2&�")�5� Qingtao "�#�2Q)"���!ก�� 45#�ก�$@2 =!��;.�ก&70���!(��ก����F;!7�=/X1&�ก�)/
>.�&7�2�$��21.�)!�' @$,1�ก�)/O+��)�,�;!�2�!U7&7!�'
5. �!Y�ก���Cก'�
45#�;.�,1����-Q�<=��+ก ก�%+ก9!�' @+�;<�/=j�ก�N -N !ก&!�$./)�ก�/=��$.F���-Q�":�=28Q-= (�$���-Q��n-8Q-= 012���-Q�":�=28Q-= @$� !ก�/=��$.F���-Q�1�!ก�N�=� (�$ก����$./)���$"% (�$!>N�"�#,1�-4=@�X�)/-ก&7ก�/=��$.F���-Q��n-8Q-="�#,1�@กก� &-89XFNQ���$ก�7ก� (�$7:����)� P "�#ก�#2/���� 012�%&2/=j� Purposive Sampling "�#� !ก��5�กก�:)-�&/�2)�"�# -�O;.��/-.6!,1��2)�-��:X84 45#�;.� -�O��O+����-Q�"�#,-) -�O $"��!@ก���-Q�":�=28Q-="&#/,� ?+#�@$">;.�,1����-Q�<=��:X84"�#� !��$02<!F(�$!>- �=-ก&7ก�/=��$.F;!<=���=-X�����!,1�� !�2)�1�
;!ก��5�กก�:)-�&/�2)� @$422-�5�กก�:)- -�-NQ�N�=� NQ� )���ก (�$NQ���$ก�7ก�"�#� !"&'�NQ���Qก NQ�N�=� (�$NQ� )���ก !�ก@ก!�' 2&�,1� )��>O-N)!NQ���$ก�7ก�,"2,�2&�NQ���$ก�7ก�;!@�! 45#�;.�,1����-Q�<=��+ก"&'�;!(�$�)���$"% (�$���7��:-7�=9&""�#ก�#2/�����&'�(�)��!!'> @!O+���2!'> �/-,�O+�NQ�;<�;!�)���$"%1�/2 012�5�ก &-89XF -�-"�#ก�#2/����ก&7ก��� (�$ก�N�=�
14 �X$%�9n% ��F @:���ก�XF-./="2�&2, 0���ก�%+ก9N�ก�$"7"�#ก=1@กก��R1 ��ก���
�?�2!-@�!, !> !��)� ก�-@�@ก����$./)���$"% ก�$"�/�4X=<2F, ก&!22! 2548, .!� 8-7. 15 �5#��1�2/ก&!, .!� 8-27.
14
-&! >�$.�&�"�# >�&Y���,"2 3 (.)� (�$7�=9&";!�)���$"%��$-X 5-6 (.)� �-"�#NQ���$ก�7ก�,"2,1���,�2�#2-<-ก=@ก� �2)�,�ก6�- �!1����&/�2)�;!�)���$"%�@-��/-��1��5#�!-ก�+'!.�5�!��2��7���-�/- -7Q�XF������-Q�(�$0�ก ;!ก� &-89XF
(!/"�ก� &-89XF@$�=#-��!@กก� �7O-8/$"&#/,�����:� .ก��--&! >�$.�&� ก���1 (�$(!/0!�-;!�!�� �SY.�:� ��� �S@@&2"�#-�N��)�ก� )���ก @:1(�6����,"2 (�$.�:;1,"2@+�� !��$"%"�#@�!!>��.�&ก !�ก@ก!�' 2&�O-O+��S@@&2"�#-�N��)�ก��)��&/���ก� )���ก-&! >�$.�&�,"2,�@�! >.�&7NQ���$ก�7ก�;!@�! ,1�wก�>O-/) �:� ��F;!-&! >�$.�&�"�#�)��&/ก=1@ก�$,� ;!�1��;<�/&�O:1=7�$,� (�$ก�;<�-&! >�$.�&�-����,1����27�2)�,� -�ก��22ก>�&�ก�N�=�;!<)/� 5 �A!�'.�5�,-) 4�$�$,� (�$ก>�&�ก�N�=�"�#4=#-�+'! -�O;<�/&�O:1=7�5#!"1("!-&! >�$.�&�,1�.�5�,-) ก�;<�-&! >�$.�&�@ก,"2� !/&�O:1=7 -��:� ��� .�5����@>ก&1;1.�5�,-)
!�ก@ก!�' ,1� ��� -ก��:� ��F�)�-&! �!���@�! @ก��=-Xก� )���ก-&! �!@ก,"2,�@�! ;!�Q� log 012-��&/(��"�#-�N��)��:� ��F"�#�)��&/�+'!;!�&ก9X$ Move along demand curve (�$ Shift in Demand ;!@�! 012ก>.!1;.�
Dx = f(GDP_ch, Px, Px/Pmaize, Dubai , FTA dummy, Alcohol dummy)
Dx = ��=-Xก� )���ก-&! �!@ก,"2,�@�! GDP_ch = N�N�=�-/��/-���@�! Px = �� )���ก-&! �!���,"2;!�Q�1���)�F ��. (USD) Px/Pmaize = �����27"�27�$./)��� )���ก-&! �!���,"2 (USD)
ก&7����/041;!��10�ก (USD) ?+#�� ! =!��"1("!ก&! Dubai = ��!'>-&!1=71Q,7 (������=�;!��1�<�2) FTA dummy = .�&�@ก����ก��-�N�7&��&7;<� >.�&7-&! >�$.�&�
(,��- 4 �A 2546) ก>.!1;.����-Q�-��)")ก&7 1 Alcohol dummy = �:� ��F;!(��ก����F"�#N�=�@ก-&! �! (N�=� :�(�$�"!��)
;!ก�%+ก9<=���=-X!&'! ;<����-Q��&'�(�)�A 2538-2549 � !�2,��- 012���-Q�":ก�&/ 2ก/�! �&/(�� Dummy @$-�ก��@&1N����T1Qก���ก,� (�$��$-/�N�;!�Q� log ?+#����-Q�"�#;<� -����@>ก&17���$ก� �5� ��=-X(�$�� )���ก-&! �!,�@�! ก)�!�A 2544 7�,��- ,-)-�ก� )���ก,�@�! !5#��@ก��=-Xก���2&��2Q);!�$1&7�#>-ก 45#�;.� -�O��$-/�N�;!�Q� log @+����#2!���-Q�@ก 0 � ! 1
!�ก@ก!�' @ก0��� ���ก� )���ก-&! �!-�ก����#2!(����2)�<&1@!.�&��A 2543 � !��!- (�)�$2$(�ก���ก����#2!(��� ก� )���ก,�@�! 2&�,-) -#> -� (7�,��- ,-)-�
15
Supply
Demand
Quantity
Price
Q1
P1P2
Demand shift
Q2
Supply
Demand
Quantity
Price
Q1
P1P2
Demand shift
Q2
���-Q�ก� )���ก) 1&�!&'! @+�(7)�ก���$-/����-Q�;!<)/�"�#-�ก� )���ก -#> -� (�$"�#@�!!>��-&! �!45#�N�=�(��ก����F45#�N�=� :� (�$�"!�� �&'�(�)�A 2544 ,��- 2 @!O+�,��- 4 �A 2549 45#�1Q�/- &-4&!jF;!<)/�/�1&�ก�)/ ?+#�-���=-Xก���-ก1�/2
;!"�"T9y��:� ��Fก�!>��-&! �!@ก@�! "�# $"��!@ก��=-Xก� )���ก-&! �!���,"2 (Dx) �S@@&2"�#-��="j=4� >�&Y,1�(ก) �2,1� (�$�$1&7�� =!�� 012�2,1�;!"�#!�' $"��!@ก�$1&7N�N�=�-/��/-���@�! (GDP_ch) 012@$-�ก����#2!(���;!"=%"�1�2/ก&7�$1&7�:� ��F ก�)/�5� -5#��2,1�4=#-�+'! @$-��:� ��F�)� =!��4=#-�+'! >.�&7�$1&7�� ;!ก�%+ก9!�' @$4=@�X�� =!�� 3 <!=1 ,1�(ก) �� )���ก-&! �!���,"2;!�Q�1���)�F ��. (Px) �����27"�27�$./)��� )���ก-&! �!���,"2 (Px) ก&7����/041;!��10�ก (Pmaize) ?+#�� ! =!��"1("!ก&! .�5� Px/Pmaize (�$��!'>-&!1=71Q,7 ?+#�� !��!'>-&!����=� >.�&7��1�<�2 (Dubai) 012 Px @$-�ก����#2!(���;!"=%"������-ก&7�$1&7�:� ��F-&! �! ?+#�� !,��- Law of Demand ก�)/�5� -5#��$1&7�� =!��4=#-�+'! @$ )�;.��/-����ก�7�=08� =!��!&'!�1�� (�$;!"�1�2/ก&! -5#� Px 4=#-�+'! O�.ก Pmaize ��"�# @$">;.��$1&7�����27"�27�/-4=#-�+'!<)!1�2/ก&! �2)�,�ก6�- >.�&7 Dubai -�O )�N��)��:� ��F;!-&! �!,1� 2 "=%"� ก�)/�5� O� Dubai 4=#-�+'! @$ )�N�;.���!":!-&! �!4=#-�+'! (�$ )�N��)��$1&7��-&! �! )���ก;.�4=#- Q��+'!1�/2 ?+#�@$ )�N�;.��:� ��F�)�-&! �!�1�� (�)�X$1�2/ก&! ก6 -�O )�N�">;.��:� ��F;!�"!��4=#-�+'! (�$/&�O:1=7"�# >�&Y<!=1.!+#�����"!���5� -&! �! @+�">;.� -�O )�N��)��:� ��F;!-&! �! ;!"=%"�1�2/ก&!,1�<)!ก&! >.�&7�&/(��.:)! (Dummy Variable) "�# -�O">;.�ก=1ก����#2!(���;!�:� ��F;!�&ก9X$">;.�ก=1ก����#2!(���;!�&ก9X$ Demand Shift ก�)/�5� ก����#2!(���;!�&ก9X$1&�ก�)/ -�O">;.���=-X4=#-�+'! (@ก Q1 � ! Q2) ,�4���-ก&7��"�#4=#-�+'! (@ก P1 � ! P2) !5#��@ก Demand Shift ,�7! �! Supply ((N!84 7)
(N!84 7 �!�:� ��F"�# Shift ,�7! �!�:�"!
16
ก�%+ก9!�' ก>.!1;.��&/(��82!�ก"�#-�N��)��:� ��F-&! �! �5� N�@ก����ก�� FTA �?�2!-@�! ก�X� ,"2-@�! >.�&7 =!��ก�:)-"�#-�ก��)��189��$./)�ก&! 82;��ก�:)- Early Harvest .-/1 Harmonize "�# 07 (�$ 08 -�N�;<�;!/&!"�# 1 �:��- 2546 (�$�&/(��1�!�:� ��F@กก�"�#@�!�=#--��:� ��F;!(��ก����F@ก-&! �!45#�!>,�N�=� :� 45#�7�=08�82;!��$"%(�$ )���ก1�/2 (�$�=#--��:� ��F;!�"!�� ?+#��=#-��!� !<)/�/�1�2/ก&! �5� �A 254416 1&�!&'! 45#�;.����7��:-�:� ��F;!�"!��(�$ :� ?+#������=#-��!N�=�@ก(��ก����Fก)�! (��/@+�(2ก 2ก�N�=�,�N�=�� !�"!�� .�5� :� @+�;<��>/) �:� ��F;!(��ก����F"�#N�=�@ก-&! �! (Alcohol dummy)
"&'�!�' �&/(�� FTA (�$ Alcohol dummy @$� !�&/(��"�#-�ก����#2!(���,�;!"=%"�1�2/ก&7�:� ��F-&! �! ก�)/�5� ก�"�#-&! �!� ! =!��"�#,1��&7 ="j=��$02<!F@ก FTA 1&�!&'! ;!"�"T9y� �/�">;.��:� ��F;!-&! �!4=#-�+'! (�$;! )/!��� Alcohol "�#-��:� ��F�)�!5#��;!-&! �! ?+#��/�@$-�ก����#2!(���"=%"�1�2/ก&7�:� ��F;!-&! �!<)!ก&!
6. FTA ก&ก����� ก� �����%�� �+�"+���
6.1 &�&��� �+�") ก����̂ D#���� ก� �����%���X����� �_%ก B%�� ���
-&! >�$.�&�-�ก���Qก-ก;!ก�:)-��$"%(O7%Q!2F Q�� !5#��@ก� !45<;!�����! "�#"!�)��/-(.��(��� @+� -�O�+'!,1�;!1=!":ก<!=1(-�(�)1=!"�#-��/-�:1- -7Q�XF�#>?+#���Qก45<,�)<!=1�5#!,-),1�N�17 (,-)"!!'>�&�(�$1=!�6-) @+�-�ก���Qกก&!-ก;!"/��(���=ก (�$"/���<�2 ?+#�ก5�7"&'�.-1� !ก���Qก45#�ก�7�=08�;!��$"% 012U4$ก�:)-��$"%;!(���=ก "�#-�N�N�=�-ก"�# :1 (�),-)-�ก� )���ก !5#��@ก!>-7�=08�("!��/18 �X$"�#ก�:)-��$"%;!"/���<�2 7�=08���/� !�.�.�&ก ">;.�-&! >�$.�&�"�#��Qก -�ON�=�45#� )���ก.�5���7 !���)��/-����ก�;!�:� .ก��-82;!��$"% 012��$"%"�#��Qก-&! >�$.�&�"�# >�&Y ,1�(ก) ,"2 �=!01!�?�2 /�21!- (�$@�! ((N!84 8)
16 ก�-ก����)���$"% ก�$"�/�4X=<2F (�$-Q�!=j= O7&!4&M!-&! >�$.�&�(.)���$"%,"2, ก�
%+ก9/=@&2��1ก���N�=�8&XvF-&! >�$.�&�;! j�X�&n��$<<!@�! lChina Tapioca Market Researchm, -�!�- 2550, .!� 86 (�$8�N!/ก 4 N�ก� >�/@8� !-.
17 ก�-/=<ก�ก9�� ก�$"�/�ก9��(�$ .ก�XF
18 -&! >�$.�&� � !45<�.�"�# >�&Y� !�&!1&7 5 ���0�ก012-��/- >�&Y ���@ก ��/ �� ��/041 ��/ (�$-&!w�&#�
17
N�=�8&XvF-&!���0�ก
0
50
100
150
200
250
2538 2540 2542 2544 2546 2548
Asia Africa World
���� ��
��
����� : FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS
N�N�=�-&! >�$.�&�����<�2
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2536 2538 2540 2542 2544 2546 2548
Thousand Tons
Year
China
Vietnam
Indonesia
Thailand
����� : FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS
(N!84 8 : �:�"!-&! >�$.�&����0�ก
012ก���Qก;!�=!01!�?�2 )/!;.Y)45#���7 !���/-����ก�82;!��$"% (�$-�.�5� )���ก,-)-ก!&ก �X$"�#/�21!- -�45'!"�#4$��Qก@>ก&119 (�$45'!"�# )/!;.Y) -�O!>,���Qก45<�5#!"�#-�-Q��)4=#--กก/) <)! ��/ � !��! (8�N!/ก 4 N�ก� >�/@) >.�&7@�! -�45'!"�#"�#.-$ -ก&7ก���Qก@>ก&1 4�$� !45<�����! (�)�:� ��F82;!-ก ">;.�����!>��@ก�)���$"% �X$"�# ,"2-�45'!"�#"�#.-$ - >.�&7��Qก-&! >�$.�&�-ก ��$ก�7ก&7� !NQ� )���กN�N�=�-&! >�$.�&�-ก"�# :1;!0�ก-012���1 012�S@@:7&!-� )/!(7)�;!��10�ก��$-X���2�$ 7520
!�ก@ก!�' .ก4=@�XO+�%&ก284;!ก�4=#-N�N�=�-&! >�$.�&� 47/) ��$"%"�#-�%&ก284 ,1�(ก) �=!01!�?�2 (�$/�21!- !5#��@กN�N�=�-&! >�$.�&�4=#-�+'!�2)�<&1@!�&'�(�)�A 2543 � !��!- ((N!84 8) �X$"�#@�! (-�/) �/-����ก�@$�)��&/-ก (�)�$1&7N�N�=��)�!���"���&/ (�$-5#����27"�27��$ ="j=84ก�N�=�-&! >�$.�&�;!�<�2 @$.6!/) ,"2-�N�N�=��)�45'!"�#012U��#2 Q� :1 �����-�5� @�! �=!01!�?�2 (�$/�21!- �-�>1&7 (2ก/�!;!�A 2548 "�#45'!"�#4$��Qก (�$N�N�=��)�45'!"�#�1�� !5#��@ก�SY.1�!��;!�Aก)�!.!� (�$ก=18/$(���) 012":ก��$"% 422-��&7��:���$ ="j=84ก�N�=�;.�4=#-�+'!;!<)/�.�2�A"�#N)!- (�)-5#�"�27ก&745'!"�#4$��Qก 47/) ,"2-�45'!"�#4$��Qก�#>ก/)�=!01!�?�2-ก �X$"�#45'!"�#4$��Qก���/�21!-�22�&/4=#-�+'!;!�$2$.�&� (�)@�! 2&�,-) -�O�2245'!"�#4$��Qก,1��2)�-�!&2 >�&Y ((N!84 9)
19 !=4!jF 4&/4�%ก�, 7"/=@�XF� ���O+�(��/
20 >!&ก�!%�9nก=@ก�ก9�� ก�$"�/�ก9��(�$ .ก�XF
18
��$ ="j=84;!ก�N�=�-&! >�$.�&����0�ก
5
10
15
20
2536 2538 2540 2542 2544 2546 2548
Tons/Hectare
China
VietnamIndonesiaThailand
Africa
Year
����� : FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS
45'!"�#4$��Qก-&! >�$.�&�����<�2
0
500
1,000
1,500
2536 2538 2540 2542 2544 2546 2548
Thousand Hectares
China
Vietnam
Indonesia
Thailand
����� : FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS
Year
(N!84 9 : %&ก284ก�N�=�-&! >�$.�&����ก�:)-��$"%;!�<�2
@กก� �7O-NQ���$ก�7ก�;!1�!ก�4=#-N�N�=� 47/) -&! >�$.�&�� !45<"�# -�O4=#-N�N�=�,1��/1�6/ O�.ก,1�4&!j:F"�#.-$ -ก&7 84�ก% (�$1=! (�$ก67ก�#2/;!/�"�#ก>.!1 !�ก@ก!�' �$1&7�/-�+ก���N=/1=!ก)�!@$O+�<&'!1=!1! (.!�1=!) @$-�N��)��!1���.&/-&!-ก ก�)/�5� O�.!�1=!!��2 �!1.&/@$�6ก ;!"������- O�.!�1=!�+ก �!1.&/@$;.Y) ">;.�N�N�=��)�45'!,�) Q� 012;!�A 2550 N�N�=��)�,�)U��#2"&#/��$"%��$-X 3.78 �&! �)�,�) �X$"�# (���"1��� -�O;.�N�N�=�,1� Q� :1-กก/) 12 �&! �)�,�)
>.�&7N�=�8&XvF-&! >�$.�&�"�# >�&Y�)�ก� )���ก ,1�(ก) -&! �! (�$-&!�&1-61 "�#�2Q);!.-/1 07 (�$(�3�-&! >�$.�&� "�#�2Q);!.-/1 11 012 =!��"�#�2Q);!�/- !;@�5� -&! �! "�#-���1 )���ก.�&ก�5� @�! (-&!�&1-61 ��1�5� .842:0��) !5#��@ก����ก�� FTA ASEAN-China ก>.!1;.���$"% -<=ก"�#-��/-4���- -�O�R1@�@ก&7@�!� !�2 P ก)�!,1� 012����ก�� FTA �$./)�,"2-@�! "�#��!-,�;.� =!��;! Harmonize 07-08 ,1�(ก) N&ก(�$N�,-� �2Q);!ก�:)-�)��189�,"2-@�! @+��189��$./)�ก&!;.�.�5����2�$ 0 82;!/&!"�# 1 �:��- 2546 ก)�!��$"%�?�2!�5#! P (�$-&! �! �2Q);!.-/1 0714 ">;.�,1��&7 ="j=1&�ก�)/1�/2 (8�N!/ก 3)
ก��22��1 )���ก-&! �!,�@�! �=#-��!-,-)!!!&ก !5#��@ก"=%"�ก���-&! >�$.�&����,"2���#2!,� �-(N!84 10 ( 1�ก����#2!(������"=%"���1�$./)�-&! �! (�$-&!�&1-61���,"2 �&'�(�)�A 2538-2549 47/) �&'�(�)�A 2538 � !��!- ,"2 )���กN�=�8&XvF-&! >�$.�&�;!�Q�-&!-61ก5�7"&'�.-1 @!ก�$"&#� .842:0�� �i=�Q�!0272ก�ก9���)/- (Common Agricultural Policy : CAP) ;!�A 2543 012�1ก��:1.!:! =!��ก9��82;!ก�:)-��$"% -<=ก� !�>1&7�)�!5#�� ">;.��� =!��ก9��;!ก�:)-� -���OQก�� ก9��ก�@+�.&!,�;<�N�N�=�;!ก�:)-� 4=#-�+'! ">;.��$1&7ก� )���ก-&!�&1-61���,"2"�#�2 )���ก,� .842:0���A�$ 3-4 ��!�&! ��&7�&/�1��-กก/) 10 ") ;!�$2$/�4�2� 5 �A �&'�(�)�A 2544 � !��!- 012;!�A 2549 ,"2 )���ก-&!�&1-61,� .842:0��
19
��=-Xก� )���กN�=�8&XvF-&!���,"2
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
2538 2540 2542 2544 2546 2548
���� ��
�$����%&��
���%�'(
����� : ก��*+�ก�ก�
Year
EU �(ก���+(,�+�
-Q��)ก� )���กN�=�8&XvF-&! �!���,"2
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
2538 2540 2542 2544 2546 2548
ก��&-.��ก���%&��/�0��
ก��&-.��ก���%&���$�1�./�
�������
����� : ก��*+�ก�ก�
Year
4�2� 4 ( !�&! ?+#�NQ���$ก�7ก����,"2 ��$.!&กO+��SY.1&�ก�)/ (8�N!/ก 4 N�ก� >�/@) ;!<)/�/�1�2/ก&! @+��)�.��1;.-)45#�����&7N�N�=�-&! >�$.�&� 012ก� )��&/�2)�-&! �! ,�;.�@�!"1 �7;!.����i=7&�=ก�/="2% ��F ;!ก�"1���!>-&! �!-N�=�� !(��ก����F 47/) �$2$(�ก (��ก����F"�#N�=�@ก-&! >�$.�&� -�O!>,�N�=� :� (��/,1��&7ก���7�&7@กNQ�7�=08�� !�2)�1� !5#��@ก (��ก����F@ก-&! �! -�O�=- � (�$ก�=#!.��,1�21 1&�!&'! -5#�N�ก�"1 �7,1��&7ก�2�-�&7 @�!@+�"1���N�=�;!0���! (�$�22ก>�&�ก�N�=� (�$4=#-@>!/!0���!(��ก����F"�#;<�-&! �!� !/&�O:1=7@+�4=#-�+'!� !�>1&7 �)�-�:� ��F@ก�"!�� 4=#-�+'! (�"!������!>(��ก����F"�#,1�,�N)!ก�$7/!ก� @+�� !�:� ��F�)�!5#��;!-&! �!��ก"�.!+#� ?+#�@$ก�)/O+�;!�2�$��21;!.&/����)�,�) ">;.��:� ��F@ก@�! ��-����&7N�N�=� )/!ก=!@กก�2ก�=ก�> &#�?5'�@ก .842:0��,1�;!/�1�2/ก&! (�ก�)�ก&!4�2��Q�(77 =!��@ก-&!�&1-61 -� !-&! �!22 012N�N�=�-&! �!ก5�7"&'�.-1���,"2 (-กก/)���2�$ 99) )���ก,�@�!4�2���$"%1�2/
(N!84 10 : ก����#2!(���"=%"���1�$./)�-&! �! (�$-&!-61���,"2
N�@กก��22�&/���ก� )���ก-&! �!,�@�! 47/) �&'�(�) FTA -�N�7&��&7;<� ��=-X(�$��-&! �!4=#-�+'!-ก 012-���� &�ก�"�# >�&Y�5� ��-&! �! �)��&/�+'!-กก/)<)/�ก)�!"> FTA -ก ก�)/�5� ก)�!"> FTA �)U��#2 3 �A �$./)��A 2544-2546 -��� )���กU��#24�2� 2.8 7"�)�ก=0�ก�&- �X$"�#.�&�"> FTA �)U��#2 3 �A �$./)��A 2547-2549 -��� )���กU��#2 Q�O+� 3.8 7"�)�ก=0�ก�&- ((N!84 11) �� )���กU��#2"�# Q��+'!O+����2�$ 36 -กก/)"�#NQ���$ก�7ก�,1��&7@กก��189��-����ก��"�#,1�4�2����2�$ 10 -ก O+�(-�"T9y� @$�$7:/) ก�"�#��$"%NQ�!>��� !��$"%;.Y) @$
21 !=4!jF 4&/4�%ก�, 7"/=@�XF� ���O+�(��/
22 -&! �!ก=1@กก�(���Q�.&/-&! >�$.�&� (��/!>-�ก(.�� �X$"�#-&!�&1-61 @$!>-&! �!-(���Q�
�)���ก�&'!��!.!+#� 012!>-&! �!-N -ก&7กก(��/71;.��$��21 @ก!&'!@+� )�����5#���&182;�� 8/$�/-���!(�$�/-1&!45#�;.�,1�� !-&!�&1-61 ">;.�-&!�&1-61,-)-�w:x!.-5�!-&! �!
20
ก� )���ก-&! �!���,"2
2538-2543 2544-2546 2547-2549 2544-2549
-&! �! )���ก�/-
-Q��) )���ก (4&!��!7") 2.07 12.10 36.40 48.50
�� (7"�)�ก=0�ก�&-) 3.2 2.8 3.8 3.3
��=-Xก� )���ก (4&!�&!) 106.5 1,402.9 3,136.7 2,269.8
-&! �! )���ก,�@�!
-Q��) )���ก (4&!��!7") 1.67 11.91 36.24 48.15
�� (7"�)�ก=0�ก�&-) 3.1 2.8 3.8 3.3
��=-Xก� )���ก (4&!�&!) 86.4 1,381.6 3,123.9 2,252.8
����� : ก���ก�ก
-�O">;.���"�#��$"%NQ� )���ก,1��&74=#-�+'!,1�ก6�- (�)!5#��@ก-&! >�$.�&�� ! =!��ก9�� ��"�#4=#-�+'! @$,-) -�O4=#-�+'!,1�-ก!&ก 2ก/�! Demend ;!��$"%!>��-�ก� Shift ?+#�;!ก�X�!�' � !,�,1�/) �:� ��F;!(��ก����F"�#,1�@ก-&! >�$.�&� � !�S@@&2 >�&Y��$ก�.!+#� "�#">;.�ก=1ก� Shift ;!�:� ��F-&! >�$.�&� ?+#�@$ก�)/O+�;!�2�$��21;!.&/����)� P ,�
(N!84 11 : ก� )���ก-&! �!���,"2 ���27"�27�-<)/�/��$./)��A 2538-2549
6.2 �����`� ���
ก� )���ก-&! >�$.�&����,"2,�@�!� !N�@ก"�1�!�:� ��F .�5� Demand Boom 012�=#-@ก ;!�A 2543 @�!�=#--�ก�!>��-&! �!45#�"1���N�=�(��ก����F (�$�A 2544 !>��45#�"1 �7�$77 (8�N!/ก 4 N�ก� >�/@) @ก!&'! @+��=#-!>��;!��=-X"�# Q��+'!�)�!5#��?+#��$2$(�ก (��ก����F"�#N�=�@ก-&! >�$.�&� !>,�N�=� :� (��/,1��&7ก���7�&7@กNQ�7�=08�"&'�;!(�$�)���$"%� !�2)�1� 012��$"%"�#!=2-7�=08� :� @ก-&! >�$.�&� ,1�(ก) Y�#�:x! (�$ก.�� (8�N!/ก 4 N�ก� >�/@)
�)�-ก��22�&/"�%�9nก=@���@�!;!<)/�"%/��9"�#N)!-�/���2�$ 10.3 ">;.�ก=1�:� ��F;!�S@@&2ก�N�=�45'!n!�)��&/�+'!-ก 012U4$!'>-&! "�#� !�S@@&2ก�N�=� >�&Y;!":กก�$7/!ก�N�=�-��� Q��+'!-ก 012�&'�(�)�A 2544 � !��!- ��!'>-&!��&7�&/ Q��+'!O+� 3 ") -5#�"�27ก&7@:1 Q� :1;!�A 2549 �2)�,�ก6�- (-�;!<)/���!�A 2550 @$��&7�&/�1��7�� (�$ก62&����2Q);!�$1&7 Q� ((N!84 12)
21
(N!84 12 : ��!'>-&!1Q,7
@ก O!ก�XF1&�ก�)/ ">;.�@�! ?+#�� !NQ�7�=08�.�&ก 422-��&7�&/012ก��)�%+ก9.4�&��!"1("! ?+#�.!+#�;!4�&��!"1("!"�# >�&Y�5� �"!�� @�!,1�%+ก9��!�/� 45<"�#.-$ -;!ก�N�=��"!�� 012�=#-@กก�;<���/041"�#��Qก-ก;!��$"% (�$�=#-"1���!>��-&! �!@ก,"2 ��กi/) -&! �! ;.��:X -7&�="�#.-$ -ก/) -5#����27"�27ก&7��/041 ,1�(ก) ��!":!"�#�#>ก/) -���=-X!'> �2!��2ก/) ((N!84 13) �:X84"�#���-��n! (�$��� �2@กก�N�=� (กก�)�P) -�O!>,�N�=�� !�:�2<�/84,1�1�/2 (8�N!/ก 4 N�ก� >�/@) !�ก@ก!�' ��/041.-$ก&7ก�N�=�� !(�3�45#� !&7 !:!�:� .ก��--กก/)
;!�A 2548 �"!��"�#N�=�;!@�! ;<�/&�O:1=7@ก ��/041 (�$-&! >�$.�&�� !.�&ก �=1� ! &1 )/!���2�$ 66 (�$ 34 �-�>1&7 ���N�N�=�"�#N�=�;!��$"%23 (�);!�/-� !@�=� &1 )/!ก�;<�-&! >�$.�&�� !/&�O:1=7-�(!/0!�--กก/)!&'! !5#��@ก;!7�45'!"�# ,-) -�O��Qก-&! >�$.�&�,1� (�)�%&2ก�!>��@ก,"2 (?+#�@$ก�)/O+�;!.&/����)�,�) !�ก@ก!�' �&n7�@�! -�!02724=#-ก�N�=��"!��4=#-�+'!@ก�S@@:7&!��ก 5 ") ;!�A 2553 012,-)����ก�;.�;<���/04145#�;<�� !/&�O:1=7;!ก�N�=�24 @+�-�(!/0!�-">;.�-&! �!@ก,"2 @$� !�S@@&2ก�N�=�"�# >�&Y"�# :1;!�$2$�)�,�
23 ก�-ก����)���$"% ก�$"�/�4X=<2F (�$-Q�!=j= O7&!4&M!-&! >�$.�&�(.)���$"%,"2, lChina
Tapioca Market Researchm, ���O+�(��/, .!� 85. 24 !=4!jF 4&/4�%ก�, 7"/=@�XF� ���O+�(��/
��!'>-&!1Q,7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 2549 2550
��2��34����(5/�(US$/BBL)
����� : ;��2��<,-.��%�*/�
22
��!":!012���27"�27;!ก�N�=��"!�!
2.5-2.8 กก. : 10 �=�� (�$กก��� �22)�2 �22ก
320กก!'>��
N.A.395��/�x�
2.5-2.8 กก. : 5 �=��370-&! >�$.�&�
N.A.515���2
3 กก. : 10 �=��570��/041 (1=!1�)
/&�O:1=7 : !'> �2 "�#,1�@กก�N�=��&�ก����F 1 �=��2
��!":!/&�O:1=71
USD/�&! ;!�A 2548
"�#- : 1/ China Tapioca Market Research � !��"�#NQ�N�=�@�!,1��&7 2/ ก� &-89XF
(N!84 13 : ��!":!/&�O:1=7;!ก�N�=��"!��"�#NQ�N�=�@�!N<=Y (�$ &1 )/!!'> �2"�#,1�@กก�N�=�
�:� ��F;!�"!�����@�! �=#-@ก�A 2543 "�#,-)-�ก�N�=�(�$ก�7�=08��"!��;!@�! (�)N�@ก��!'>-&!"�#4=#- Q��+'! @+��)�.4�&��!"1("! 012�=#-"1���N�=� �&'�(�)�A 2544 -5#��$1&7��!'>-&!4=#- Q��+'!;!�&���)�;!�A 2547 @�!@+��22ก�7&��&7;<��"!��;!.�245'!"�# (?+#�@$ก�)/;!�2�$��21�)�,�) ">;.� &1 )/!ก�7�=08��"!��4=#-�+'!�2)��)�!5#�� "&'�!�' ;!�2�!/=@&225 �$7:,/�<&1@!/) ก�"�#�:� ��F;!-&! >�$.�&�"�#�)��&/�+'! � !N�-@ก!02724&M!4�&��!<�/84���@�!
!�ก@ก!�' ;!ก�N�=��"!�� @$����N�=�(��ก����Fก)�! ?+#�(��ก����F"�#,1� @$ -�O!>,�;<�;!�:� .ก��-�)� P "�# >�&Y,1�(ก) �:� .ก��-�.� (�$ก�(4"2F .�5��"!�� ?+#�@กก�$7/!ก�1&�ก�)/ ">;.�-�ก�!>(��ก����F@ก-&! �! ,�"1���N�=�� !��5#��15#- (�$-��:X84���ก&7� !=2-���NQ�7�=08�"&'�Y�#�:x! (�$ก.�� (8�N!/ก 4) @+�� !ก�4=#-�:� ��F;!-&! �!��ก"�.!+#� (�$�$1&7ก�7�=08�@+�4=#-�+'!� !�>1&7�&'�(�)�A 2545 � !��!-
@ก.�:N�1&�ก�)/�����! ">;.�0��� ����:� ��F(��ก����F���@�!���#2!(���,�-ก ก�)/�5� �&'�(�)�A 2543 �:� ��Fก�$@:ก�&/"�#�:� .ก��-�.� (�$ก�(4"2F ���2�$ 95 ����:� ��F"&'�.-1;!��$"% "�#.�5�@+� )���ก (�)�:� ��F;!�:� .ก��-1&�ก�)/(�$ก� )���ก ?+#�� !�:� ��F
25 ก�-ก����)���$"% ก�$"�/�4X=<2F (�$-Q�!=j= O7&!4&M!-&! >�$.�&�(.)���$"%,"2, ก�
%+ก9/=@&2��1ก���N�=�8&XvF-&! >�$.�&�;! j�X�&n��$<<!@�! lChina Tapioca Market Researchm, -�!�- 2550, .!�86. lIn view of the booming demand in the tapioca market, a demand created by China�s biological energy development policym.
��!":!012���27"�27;!ก�N�=��"!��
23
�:� ��F(��ก����F���@�! (2ก�-/&�O:��$ ��F
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 25480
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548
Edible and medicalEthanolUsed for industryNet export
����� : China Tapioca Market Research
Edible and medical
Ethanol
Used for Industry
Net ExportsMil. Liter
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548
Alcohol Starch Other
�:� ��F�)�-&! >�$.�&�"�#N�=�;!@�!1,000 ./0
12
"�#- : China Tapioca Market Research
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548
�:� ��F�)�-&! >�$.�&�"�#N�=�;!@�!
12
Alcohol
Starch
Other
"�#- : China Tapioca Market Research
1&'�1=--� &1 )/!�1���2)��)�!5#�� (�$OQก"1("!1�/2�:� ��F;.-) ,1�(ก) �:� ��F;!�"!�� (�$;!�:� .ก��-�5#!P "�#�=70��)�!5#���-ก�4&M!%�9nก=@�����$"% 012;!�A 2548 ��.�5��:� ��F;!�:� .ก��-�.�(�$ก�(4"2F4�2����2�$ 50 (�$ )���ก���2�$ 4 �X$"�#�:� ��F;.-)"�#��-"1("!ก5�7��+#�.!+#�����:� ��F012�/- ��$ก�71�/2 �:� ��F@ก�"!�����2�$ 30 (�$;!�:� .ก��-�5#! P ���2�$ 16 ((N!84 14) 012�:� ��F@ก�"!�� �)��&/�+'!-ก�&'�(�)�A 2547 � !��!- �-!0272"�#�&n7�@�!��$ก%
(N!84 14 : �:� ��F���(��ก����F���@�! (2ก�-/&�O:��$ ��F
-&! >�$.�&�"�#N�=�,1�;!@�! @$OQก@&1 ��,�;!ก�N�=�(��ก����F (�$(�3�-&! � !.�&ก 012ก��=70����(�3�-&!�)�!�����"�# �X$"�#(��ก����F �)�!����)��&/ ">;.��:� ��F�)�-&! >�$.�&�;!ก�N�=�(��ก����F-��$1&7 Q�ก/)(�3��&'�(�)�A 2546 � !��!- (�$;!�A 2548 -&! >�$.�&�ก5�7��+#�.!+#� OQก@&1 ��;.�ก&7ก�N�=�(��ก����F (�$���2�$ 38 @&1 ��;.�ก&7ก�N�=�(�3�-&! (�$��ก�6ก!��2 >.�&7N�=�8&XvF�5#! P ((N!84 15)
(N!84 15 : �:� ��F�)�-&! >�$.�&�"�#N�=�;!@�!
24
6.3 ���� � ���
(-��/-����ก�-&! >�$.�&�82;!��$"%���@�!@$�22�&/ (�)45'!"�#4$��Qก-&! >�$.�&�"�#.-$ -;!@�!-�@>ก&1 1&�"�#ก�)/;!75'����!/) -&! >�$.�&�� !45<;!�����! 1&�!&'!45'!"�#"�# -�O��Qก-&! >�$.�&�,1�;!@�! @+�@>ก&14�2���!�)������$"% ,1�(ก) -Xv�ก/� � (Guangxi) ก/��� (Guangdong) ,.).!! (Hainan) 2Q!!! (Yunnan) �Qx@�'2! (Fujian) (�$.Q.!! (Hunan) (�$-Xv�"�#��Qก-&! >�$.�&�-ก"�# :1 �5� ก/� � "�#-�45'!"�#4$��Qกก5�7���2�$ 80 ���45'!"�#4$��Qก"&#/��$"% ?+#��$1&7N�N�=�-&! >�$.�&����@�! ;!�A 2548 ")ก&7 7.3 ��!�&! �22�&/4=#-�+'!���2�$ 8.3 �)��A 012U��#2 �$./)��A 2543-2548 ก��22�&/ )/!;.Y)2&���ก�$@:ก�&/U4$-Xv�ก/� � � !,�,1�/) �S@@:7&! @�!2&���-����@>ก&1;!ก��2245'!"�#4$��Qก-&! >�$.�&� ">;.�45'!"�#��Qก-&!ก�$@:ก�&/�2Q)4�2�7�45'!"�# "&'�"�# � !45<%�9nก=@ >�&Y "�#����4+#�4=�ก�!>��@ก�)���$"%;!�$1&7 Q� ((N!84 16)
(N!84 16 : 45'!"�#4$��Qก-&! >�$.�&����@�! (2ก�--5��"�#��Qก
<,�-.%D���5ก���&4��,��.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548
45'!"�#4$��Qก-&! >�$.�&����@�! (2ก�--5��"�#��Qก
Guangxi
GuangdongHainan
Yunnan
����� : China Tapioca Market Research
25
<,�-.E�F <��ก�G��H
%�I�.�-����������%&��0�ก/�
6.4 ก��D%!(B %ก a %`� ���
@�! � !��$"%.!+#�"�#!=2-7�=08�(��ก����F (�:� ��F(��ก����F >.�&7�.� (�$ก�(4"2F���2�$ 95 ;!�A 2543) ">;.�-�0���!N�=�(��ก����Fก�$@2�2Q)"&#/":ก45'!"�# 012U4$;!��<2wS��"$�1�!�$/&!��ก�&'�(�).!5�@�1;�� ((N!84 17) (�$;<�j&Y45<;!45'!"�#/&�O:1=7 ,1�(ก) ��/041(�$j&Y45<�5#!P ���2�$ 48 -&!w�&#� ���2�$ 33 (�$กก!'>�����2�$ 1926 ���/&�O:1=7"�#N�=�;!��$"% 82.�&�@กก�"1���!>��-&! >�$.�&�,�N�=�(��ก����F (�$��$ 7�/- >�6@;!ก�!>(��ก����F,�N�=���5#��15#- (�$�"!�� ">;.�ก��22�&/���ก�N�=�(��ก����F;!-Xv�"�#;ก��")�5�<=��) (Qingtao) ?+#�� !@:1"�#!>��-&! �!@ก,"2 012U4$-Xv�<!�� (Shandong) (�$@�2�?Q (Jiangsu) "�#-�ก�!>��-&! �!-กก/)��+#�.!+#����ก�!>��-&! �!"&'�.-1���@�! (�$ก5�7"&'�.-1� !ก�!>��@ก,"2 (�$-กก/)��+#�.!+#����ก� )���ก���,"2 � !ก� )�,�2&� 2 -5��!�' (��� 1)
(N!84 17 (.�)�N�=�(��ก����F"�# >�&Y;!@�!
26 ก�-ก����)���$"% ก�$"�/�4X=<2F (�$-Q�!=j= O7&!4&M!-&! >�$.�&�(.)���$"%,"2, ก�
%+ก9/=@&2��1ก���N�=�8&XvF-&! >�$.�&�;! j�X�&n��$<<!@�! lChina Tapioca Market Researchm, -�!�- 2550, .!� 38.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2541 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548
-5��"�#N�=�(��ก����F;!��$"%@�!
Jinlin
Shandong
Henan
Jiangsu
Heilongjiang
Guangxi
AnhuiTianjin
Other
����� : China Tapioca Market Research
26
-5��
�/- ,"2 �=!01� /�21!- �/- ,"2 �=!01� /�21!- �/- ,"2 �=!01� /�21!-
Shandong 1,273.4 1,218.1 13.7 41.6 38.3 45.2 6.0 10.4 100.0 95.7 1.1 3.3
Jiangsu 495.9 301.8 70.5 123.6 14.9 11.2 30.9 30.8 100.0 60.9 14.2 24.9
Zheijiang 157.9 112.0 31.0 14.9 4.7 4.2 13.6 3.7 100.0 70.9 19.6 9.5
Other 1,398.4 1,063.7 113.1 221.6 42.0 39.5 49.5 55.2 100.0 76.1 8.1 15.8
�/- 3,325.6 2,695.6 228.3 401.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 81.1 6.9 12.1
"�#- : China Tapioca Market Research, Page 68
��=-X!>�� &1 )/!ก�!>��(2ก�-��$"% &1 )/!ก�!>��(2ก�--5��
��� 1 NQ�!>�� (�$��=-Xก�!>��-&! �!���@�!;!�A 2548
!�ก@ก!�' @�!2&�-�!0272N�=��"!��<&1@! (�$-�ก�7&��&7;<�<5'�4�=�@ก�"!�� ;!
��"�#-�ก�N�=�(��ก����F@ก-&! >�$.�&� �&'�(�)15�!-=O:!2! 2545 � !��!- (�$�2245'!"�#4=#-�+'!� !�>1&7 ก�)/�5� ;!15�!-=O:!2! 2545--=O:!2! 2546 7&��&7;<��"!��;!-5�� Henan Heilongjiang ;!�A 2547 ,1��2245'!"�#@ก1=- 4=#-�+'!;!-5�� Jilin Liaoning Anhui (�$7� )/!���-5�� Hebei Shandong Jiangsu (�$ Hubei 27 ((N!84 18) ?+#�45'!"�#"�#7&��&7;<��"!��4=#-�=-;!�A 2547 )/!;.Y)� !45'!"�#��!ก�����@�! "�#-�ก�;<�-&! �!@ก,"2� !/&�O:1=7 1&�!&'! -5#��:� ��F;! �"!��4=#-�+'! @+�ก=1�:� ��F�)�!5#��;!-&! �!@ก,"21�/2
(N!84 18 : -5��"�#OQก7&��&7;<�<5'�4�=�@ก�"!��
27 ก�-ก����)���$"% ก�$"�/�4X=<2F (�$-Q�!=j= O7&!4&M!-&! >�$.�&�(.)���$"%,"2, China
Tapioca Market Research, page 46.
%�I�.�����ก����.2��JK�%������
27
6.5 ����(���X�� (� � ������ ��� ��ก+�"
,"2� !��$"%"�# )���กN�=�8&XvF-&! >�$.�&�-ก"�# :1;!0�ก (�$-���$ 7ก�XF@กก�� !NQ� )���กN�=�8&XvF-&! >�$.�&�--กก/) 50 �A (�$�/-4���-"&'�;!�5#���/-4�2�4� (�$�:X84 =!�� �$77ก��! )�82;!��$"%-��/-��)���&/ (�$ก��! )�"��5�-��/-251.2:)! Q� !�ก@ก!�' @กก���"�#2/!!">;.�,"2-�ก�4&M!4&!j:F (�$��5#��@&ก��2)��)�!5#�� ��$ก�7ก&7 -��/- &-4&!jF"�ก��� (�$��$/&�=% ��F"�#1�ก&7@�! ">;.�@�!-��,"2;!�&ก9X$"�#� !-=��-กก/)��$"%�5#! 1&�!&'! ,"2@+�� !��$"%"�#-��/-4���-"�# :1 ��$ก�7ก&7<)/�/�"�#@�!�=#-!>��-&! �!@ก,"2 � !<)/�/�1�2/ก&7 .842:0���1ก�!>��-&!�&1-61@ก,"2 ">;.�-��:�"! )/!ก=!�!1;.Y) "�#�:� ��F@ก@�!��-����&7,1��2)�.-$ - ">;.�,"2-� )/!(7)���1;!@�! Q�O+����2�$ 80 012U��#2�&'�(�)�A 2544-2548 ((N!84 19) 012-���� &�ก�/) ,"2-� )/!(7)���1;!@�!;!�$1&71&�ก�)/�&'�(�)ก)�!"�#����ก�� FTA �$./)�,"2-@�! @$-�N�7&��&7;<�;!��2�A 2546
(N!84 19 : &1 )/!ก�!>��-&! >�$.�&����@�! (2ก�-��$"%�Q)��
>.�&7�Q)(�)�"�# >�&Y ,1�(ก) /�21!- (�$�=!01!�?�2 -�ก�(7)���1 )���ก���2�$ 15 (�$ 5 �-�>1&7;!�A 2548 012/�21!- "�#� !�Q)(�)��&!1&7.!+#� @:1(�6��5� -���<2(1!�=1ก&7@�!">;.���!":!�)�! )��#>ก/),"2 (�)ก� )���ก @$ )�,�"�")�5� Beihai (�$ Fangcheng ?+#�(�ก�)�@ก,"2"�# )�,�2&�")�5� Qingtao ((N!84 20) @+�� !ก�(7)���1ก&!�2)�<&1@! >.�&7@:1�)�!�5� 45'!"�#"�#.-$ - >.�&7��Qก-&! >�$.�&�-�@>ก&1ก/),"2 !5#��@ก45'!"�# )/!;.Y)� !45'!"�#<:)-!'> �&ก9X$1&�ก�)/ .-$ - >.�&7��Qก��/"�#-�-Q��)4=#--กก/) (8�N!/ก 4 N�ก� >�/@) �X$"�#�=!01!�?�2 "�#�2������1;!@�!-กก/)���2�$ 60 ;!�A 2543 (�)-5#��:� ��F@ก@�!�)��&/�+'! ก�&7,-)
&1 )/!ก�!>��-&! �!���@�!(2ก�-��$"%�Q)��
0%
100%
2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 25480
1,000
2,000
3,000
2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548
Thailand
Vietnam
Indonesia
Thailand
Vietnam
Indonesia
Thousand tons
����� : China Tapioca Market Research
28
<
-�O4=#-��=-Xก� )���ก,1� "&'�"�#��=-XN�N�=�82;!��$"%-�@>!/!;ก����2�ก&7,"2 1&�"�#ก�)/,/�;!75'����! ( 1�/) -��:� ��F;!��$"%-ก �1�����ก&7���-Q�"�#,1��&7@กNQ���$ก�7ก� ">;.� QY �2��1-&! �!;!@�!;.�ก&7,"2(�$/�21!-
(N!84 20 : ( 1��>(.!)�")�5�"�#,"2 (�$/�21!-;<�;!ก� )���ก
6.6 ����(���Xก���"�"(�� �ก����� ก�C�+��+@���̂ D%��ก FTA B(����"� "����@�"�
6.6.1 .�:"�#�:� ��F-&! >�$.�&��22�&/-ก;!@�!;!�$2$ 4-5 �A"�#N)!- � !N�@ก�:� ��F;!��5#��15#-(��ก����F"�#">@ก-&! >�$.�&� "�#,1��&7ก���7 !��@กNQ�7�=08�"&'�;! (�$�)���$"% "�# >�&Y,1�(ก) Y�#�:x! (�$ก.�� (�$ก��R1��$"%���@�! ">;.��:� ��F;!�S@@&2ก�N�=�45'!n!012U4$!'>-&!�)��&/�+'!-ก ">;.��� Q��+'!-กก/) 3 ") ">;.�@>� !�����)�.4�&��!"1("! (�$47/) -&! >�$.�&�-��:X -7&�="�#.-$ - "&'�;!1�!�� (�$�:X84 �/-O+��$1&7N� �2�)� =#�(/1���-"�#�#>ก/)j&Y45<�5#!012���27"�27 @+�">;.�@�!�����)�!>��-&! >�$.�&�@ก,"2 �-"�#ก�)/,/�;!75'����!
6.6.2 ก�"> FTA �/�� !0�ก ;!ก�1+� )/!(7)���1@ก��ก��$"%.!+#� (�) )/!(7)���1"�#,"2,1��&72&���"�# �X$"�# )/!(7)���1���/�21!-ก�&74=#-�+'! "&'�"�#/�21!-,-),1� ="j="�89�!>��.-5�!ก&7,"2 2ก/�! =!��ก9��ก��-@ก/�21!-"�#�! )�N)!1)!�Qx@�2"�#-Xv� Guangxi @$,1��&7�1�&��89�!>��@ก@�!�����2�$ 50 @ก�&���ก�="�#1)!�5#!P (@กก� �7O- O!ก� :�/�21!- ��$@>��$"%,"2) ?+#�;!ก�X�-&! >�$.�&� @$� !ก� )�"��O2!�F ��,�;!-5��<&'!;!���@�! @$� !,�,1�2ก !5#��@ก �$77ก��-!�-�! )�;!@�!2&�,-) $1/ก 1&�!&'! ( 1�
29
/) ก��22�&/����:� ��F1&�ก�)/ ก=1@ก�:� ��F82;!��$"%"�#�22�&/ -กก/)� !ก��22�&/@กN���$02<!F1�!89�"�#�1���$./)�ก&!@กก�"> FTA ((N!84 19)
6.6.3 ก� )���ก"�#4=#-�+'! �$2$(�ก� !N�@ก��=-X"�#�)��&/�+'!-กก/)1�!�� (�).�&�@ก�A 2548 � !N�@ก��-กก/)��=-X"�#4=#-�+'! ((N!84 21) )/!.!+#��@� !N�@ก"T9y�ก��189��$./)�ก&!012��$"%NQ�!>��� !��$"%;.Y) "�#��"�#��$"%NQ� )���ก,1��&7 -�O4=#-�+'!,1� (�)4�2��6ก!��2")!&'! (1&�"�#ก�)/O+�;!.&/��� 3) !�ก@ก!�' N���ก )/!.!+#�ก=1@กN�"�1�!���)�! )�82;!��$"%���,"2(4��+'! �&'�(�)�A 2547 � !��!- ">;.��S@@:7&! ��!":!�)�! )�-&! �!�=1� ! &1 )/!O+����2�$ 40 �����!":!"&'�.-128 (�)�2)�,�ก6�- ก�"�#��!'>-&!4=#-�+'! !�ก@ก@$ )�N�"�1�!�� )���ก-&! �!(��/ 2&� )�N��)��/-����ก�4�&��!"1("! 012U4$�"!��4=#-�+'! @+�-� )/!">;.���=-Xก� )���ก�)��&/�+'!1�/2 "&'�!�' @ก���-Q�"� O=�= 47/) ;!<)/� 2 �A �5� �$./)��A 2548-2549 ,-)4�2�(�)�$1&7�� )���ก-&! �!012U��#2@$4=#-�+'!O+����2�$ 21 (��/2&�">;.���=-Xก� )���ก�)��&/,1�O+����2�$ 20 (@กก��>!/X) 012��=-Xก� )���ก4=#-�+'!!��2ก/)ก�4=#-�+'!����� (�)2&�4=#-�+'!;!�$1&7 Q� ?+#�N�ก��)��&/"&'���=-X(�$�� 1&�"�#ก�)/-(��/;!75'����!/) -��/-� !,�,1� Q�/) ก=1@ก Demand Shift ?+#��-"�#ก�)/;!75'����! �5� �:� ��F;!(��ก����F >.�&7N�=� :� (�$�"!�� "�#;<�-&! �!� !/&�O:1=7
(N!84 21 : .�:ก��)��&/���-Q��)ก� )���ก-&! >�$.�&�,�@�!
28 !=4!jF 4&/4�%ก�, 7"/=@�XF, ���O+�(��/.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 25490
100
200
300
400Quantity � < Price �
.�:ก��)��&/���-Q��)ก� )���ก-&! >�$.�&�,�@�!Tons
Value
Quantity/Price
Q/P
Quantity � > Price �
30
7. D%ก���!������̀�b!���!��c
N�ก�/=��$.F<=���=-X;!75'����! �-(N!84"�# 22 (O/"�# (1)-(5) 47/) �:� ��F;!(��ก����F"�#N�=�@ก-&! �! (Alcohol dummy) � !�&/(��"�#-��$1&7!&2 >�&Y-ก"�# :1 ;!":กก�X�"�#">ก�%+ก9 012ก�4=#-�+'!����:� ��F1&�ก�)/ )�N�;.�-�ก�!>��-&! �!@ก,"24=#-�+'! ;!"=%"�1�2/ก&! (�$;!"������- >.�&7�&/(�� FTA 47/) -�N�!��2-5#�"�27ก&7 Alcohol dummy �� )���ก-&! �! (Px) �� )���ก-&! �!"�27ก&7��/041 (Px/Pmaize) ��!'>-&!1=71Q,7,��- ก)�!.!� (Dubai (-1)) (�$�$1&7N�N�=�-/��/-���@�! (GDPchina) �X$"�#��!'>-&!1=71Q,7;!,��- ก)�!.!� � !�&/(��"�#-��$1&7!&2 >�&Y���2�$ 90 �1/) � !4�$�$1&7��!'>-&!-�N��)���!":!ก�N�=�-&! �! (�$�� )���ก-&! �! �2)�-�!&2 >�&Y @+�">;.�"=%"������-ก&7�:� ��F;!ก�!>��-&! �!���@�!
>.�&7�&/(���2,1������$<ก�;!��$"% "�# $"��!@ก�$1&7N�N�=�-/��/-���@�! @$-��$1&7!&2 >�&Y"�#���2�$ 99 .�5� 90 012ก�4=#-�+'!����$1&7N�N�=�-/��/-���@�! @$ )�N�;.�-�ก�!>��-&! �!@ก,"24=#-�+'! ;!"=%"�1�2/ก&! �2)�,�ก6�- -5#��/-N�"�1�!�� �&/(��1&�ก�)/ก�&7,-)-�!&2 >�&Y !5#��@ก �&/(��1�!��-&! �! )���ก (�$ )/!�����27"�27�$./)�-&! �! )���ก(�$��/041;!��10�ก?+#�� ! =!��"1("! -��$1&7!&2 >�&Y-ก (�/-� !,�,1��#>ก/)���2�$ 1) (�)"=%"�ก����#2!(���ก�&7� !,�;!"=%"�1�2/ก&! )/!.!+#�� !N�@ก�:� ��F"�#��5#�!"�#,�7! �!�:�"! (Demand Shift) ">;.�ก=1ก����#2!(���1&�ก�)/ ((N!84 7) ?+#�@ก(N!84"�# 23 ,1�( 1�;.�.6!/) ก����#2!(��������(�$��=-Xก� )���ก-&! �!� !,�;!"=%"�1�2/ก&!
!�ก@ก!�' @ก0��� ���ก� )���ก-&! �!"�#-�ก����#2!(����2)�<&1@!.�&�@ก�A 2543 � !��!- (�)�$2$(�ก���ก����#2!(��� ก� )���ก,�@�!2&�,-) -#> -� (7�,��- ,-)-����-Q�ก� )���ก) 1&�!&'! @+�(7)����-Q�!&7�&'�(�)-�ก� )���ก -#> -� (�$"�#@�!!>��-&! >�$.�&�45#�N�=�(��ก����F45#�N�=� :� (�$�"!�� �&'�(�)�A 2544 ,��- 2 @!O+�,��- 4 �A 2549 -��$-/�N�"� O=�= 47/) @ก(N!84 22 (O/"�# (6) �$1&7�� )���ก (�$��!'>-&!1=71Q,7 � !�&/(��"�#-��$1&7!&2 >�&Y-กก/) ���2�$ 99 �)��:� ��F-&! �!;!@�! 012�$1&7�� )���ก -��/- &-4&!jF;!"=%"����ก&!��-ก&7�:� ��F1&�ก�)/ ?+#� �1�����ก&7 Law of Demand (�$��!'>-&!1=71Q,7 -��/- &-4&!jF;!"=%"�1�2/ก&! ( 1�/) �$1&7��!'>-&!1=7"�# Q��+'! -� )/!ก�$�:�!;!ก=1�/-����ก�;!4�&��!"1("! "�#;<�-&! �!� !/&�O:1=7 !�ก@ก!�' �$1&7N�N�=�-/��/-���@�! @$-��$1&7!&2 >�&Y"�#���2�$ 90 012ก�4=#-�+'!����$1&7N�N�=�-/��/-���@�! @$ )�N�;.�-�ก�!>��-&! �!@ก,"24=#-�+'! ;!"=%"�1�2/ก&! (�$-5#� FTA -�N�7&��&7;<� ">;.��&/(���$1&7N�N�=�-/��/-���@�!-�N��)��:� ��F-&! �!4=#-�+'! 0.04 �2)�,�ก6�- -5#����27"�27�!1���N�����&/(����!'>-&!1=71Q,7 ก&7N�7/ก"�#,1��&7@กก�"> FTA 47/) �&/(�� FTA -�N�!��2ก/)012���27"�27
31
��(�$��=-X-&! �!"�# )���ก,�@�!
0
40
80
120
2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 25490
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
US$/Ton
Year
Thousand tons
��2�&-.��ก���%&��/�0�� (LHS)
��F��S���%&��&-.��ก/�0�� (RHS)
����� : ก��*+�ก�ก� <�ก��24��$S
Export Demand Function
0.91***Dubai_sa (+/-)0.04***FTA*(GDPch_sa) (+)-0.83***MA(1)0.58***MA(3)
1.340.5448
-45.65***
-4.50*
5.05***
-0.148.44***
(5)
2.700.8523
9.44***
-1.55***
9.44***
(6)
-4.53*Dubai_sa (-1) (+/-)
48484848Observations
5.09***3.25***2.97***5.05***Alcohol dummy (+)
2.16***Px_sa/Pmaize_sa(-)
-44.45*13.63**-4.57-45.65Constant
0.550.970.980.54Adjusted R-squared1.34
8.30**
(4)
1.58
0.63-0.44
(3)Explanatory Variable (1) (2)
GDPchina_sa (+) 8.44** 0.58FTA dummy (+) -0.14 -0.14
Px_sa(Th to Ch) (-) 2.28***
Durbin-Watson Stat 1.34 1.89
"&'�!�' @กก�(2กก�:)-�&/�2)�-��$-/�N�;!75'����!!�' -����@>ก&1�5� @>!/! Degree of Freedom 2&��2Q);!�$1&7�#> ?+#�.ก-�@>!/!ก�:)-�&/�2)�-ก�+'! !)@$">;.�N�ก�%+ก982.�&�@ก"�#�:� ��F�)��&/ -��/-<&1@!�+'!
(N!84 22 �S@@&2"�#� !�&/ก>.!1�:� ��Fก�!>��-&! �!���@�! @ก,"2
(N!84 23 ��(�$��=-X-&! �!���,"2"�# )���ก,�@�!
.-2.�: :1) �$1&7!&2 >�&Y"� O=�= *** 1% ** 5% * 10%2) Ethanol Dummy 2538-2543 = 0 (�$ 2544-2549 = 1 3) FTA Dummy 2538-2546 ,��- 3 = 0 (�$ 2546 ,��- 4 - 2549 = 14) 3456789�:�;<�=/>?@5 (1)-(5) 2538 D 2549 �EF.��;5) 3456789�:�;<�=/>?@5 (6 2544 F.��; 2 - 2549 F.��; 4
32
8. ����B%��� �� B �
@ก�/-ก�$�5��5���!���,"2;!ก���!- FTA ก�/=��$.FN�ก�$"7�����ก��� ��.�5� FTA @+�� !�5#��"�#-��/- >�&Y<=�!0272 �2)�,�ก6�-�!%+ก9 )/!;.Y)-:)���$-=!N�"�1�! /& 1=ก�@กก�"> FTA N)!ก�"> Policy Simulation Experiments ���(77@>���;!�&ก9X$ CGE 012U4$(77@>��� GTAP "�#N�ก�%+ก9!)@$� ! Upper Bound ���N�7/ก"�#@$ก=1�+'! ��$02<!F"�#@$ก=1�+'!@�=�2&��+'!�2Q)ก&7�S@@&2.�2P ��$ก�"�#,-) -�O���7��:-,1�;!(77@>��� �"= ก�7&��&7;<�กy/)1�/2(.�)�ก>!=1 -��ก�ก�1ก&!�5#!P"�#-=;<)89�!>�� (�$012U4$�2)�2=#�!02721�!<�/4�&��! �����$"%NQ�!><�/4�&��!���0�ก �"= .�&n�-�=ก .842:0�� @�! (�$7�?=� ">;.�N�ก�%+ก9;!�1��;<�,-),1�ก&7ก�X� =!��ก9��"�#OQก!>,�;<�45#�N�=�<�/4�&��! 1&�!&'! ก�/=��$.F<=��+ก;!�2 =!��"�#4=@�X(!/0!�-ก)�!(�$.�&�ก���!- FTA @+�� ! =#�"�#@>� !"�#����1>!=!ก��/7�Q)ก&!,� �/-O+�ก�/=��$.F�i=ก=�=2���NQ� )���ก"�#;<� FTA @�=� 1&�!&'!�!%+ก9!�'@+�����ก�/=��$.F<=��+ก;!�2 =!��
ก�%+ก9!�',1��5�ก��$-=!N� FTA ,"2-@�! "�#-��)�-&! >�$.�&� 4�$!5#��@กN��������ก��1&�ก�)/�)�-&! >�$.�&�-�N�7&��&7;<�-� !�$2$/�!!4�"�#@$��,�/=��$.F"&'�(!/0!�-ก����$./)���$"%(�$�i=ก=�=2���NQ� )���ก�)� FTA ,1� 012/=j�ก�%+ก9;!�!/=@&2U7&7!�'� !ก�N -N !�$./)�ก�/=��$.F���-Q�":�=28Q-= (�$���-Q��n-8Q-= 012���-Q�":�=28Q-= @$� !ก�/=��$.F���-Q�1�!ก�N�=� (�$ก����$./)���$"% (�$!>N�"�#,1�-4=@�X�)/-ก&7ก�/=��$.F���-Q��n-8Q-="�#,1�@กก� &-89XFNQ���$ก�7ก� (�$7:����)� P "�#ก�#2/���� 012�%&2/=j� Purposive Sampling "�#� !ก��5�กก�:)-�&/�2)�"�# -�O;.��/-.6!,1��2)�-��:X84 (�$ก� ���(77@>����S@@&2"�#� !�&/ก>.!1�:� ��Fก�!>��-&! �!���@�!@ก,"2 012ก>.!1;.��:� ��F1&�ก�)/�+'!�2Q)ก&7�$1&7N�N�=�-/��/-���@�! ��-&! �! ��!'>-&!1=71Q,7 (�$�&/(��.:)! ,1�(ก) �&/(�� FTA (�$(��ก����F"�#;<�-&! �!� !/&�O:1=7 >.�&7N�=� :�(�$�"!��
N�ก�%+ก9 47/) ก� )���ก-&! �!���,"2,�@�! � !N�@ก�:� ��F"�#�)��&/�+'! (Demand Boom) @กก��22�&/"�%�9nก=@���@�! @�!����ก�!>��-&! >�$.�&�45#�;<�;!ก�N�=� :� ;!�$2$(�ก���ก�!>�� (�)-5#���!'>-&!1=7;!��10�ก�)��&/�+'!;!�A 2547 � !��!- ">;.��:� ��F�)�4�&��!"1("!�)��&/�+'!<)!ก&! "�# >�&Y �5� �"!�� 1&�!&'! -Q��) )���ก"�#4=#-�+'! � !N�@ก Positive Demand Shock ก�)/�5� ก=1@ก Demand Shift "�#"&'���(�$��=-Xก� )���ก��&7�&/4=#-�+'!4���-P ก&! -กก/)ก���5#�!"�#,�7! �!�:� ��F (Move along demand curve)
O+�(-��/-����ก�-&! �!82;!��$"%���@�!@$�)��&/�+'! (�)45'!"�#4$��Qก-�@>ก&1 4�$� !45<�����! @�!@+� -�O��Qก-&!,1�4�2�7�45'!"�#")!&'! ">;.����1/�"�#N)!-,-) -�O�2245'!"�#4$��Qก,1�-ก!&ก ��$ก�7ก&7,"2 � !NQ� )���ก-&! >�$.�&��2;.Y)���0�ก--กก/)
33
50 �A ">;.�-���$ 7ก�XF(�$�/-4���-"&'�;!�5#���/-4�2�4� (�$�:X84 =!�� �$77ก��! )�"&'�82;!��$"% (�$;!ก� )���ก Q�ก/)��$"%�5#!012���27"�27 ��$ก�7ก&7 �/- &-4&!jF�$./)���$"%"�#1��)�ก&!-!! ">;.�,"2,1����27"���.!5��Q)(�)�-ก
-5#�4=@�XO+��Q)(�)� @$47/) �=!01!�?�2 -�ก� )���ก,�@�!!��24�2����2�$ 5 ;!�A 2548 "&'�"�#�2������1;!@�!-กก/)���2�$ 60 ;!�A 2543 ( 1�/) �=!01!�?�2 -�N�N�=�,-)4�2�4��)�ก��&ก9��1"&'�"�#-�N�N�=�,-)�)�@ก,"2-ก!&ก !5#��@ก-��:� ��F;!��$"%-ก �X$"�#/�21!- -�O�22��1;!@�!-ก�+'! (�)45'!"�#-�@>ก&1 01245'!"�#"�#-��2Q) -�O��Qก45<�5#!"�#-�-Q��)4=#--กก/) ��$ก�7ก&7,"2(�$/�21!--�ก�(7)���1 )���ก�2)�<&1@! 012/�21!- )���ก;.�ก&70���!(��ก����F"�1�!;�����@�!012;<�")�5�"���!;��� !.�&ก ,1�(ก) ")�5� Beihai (�$ Fangcheng �X$"�#,"2 )�,�2&�")�5�"���!ก�������$"% �5� ")�5� Qingtao 45#�ก�$@2 =!��;.�ก&70���!(��ก����F;!7�=/X1&�ก�)/ ">;.�"&'�/�21!- (�$�=!01!�?�2,-);<)�Q)(�)����,"2 ?+#�N���$02<!F"�#,"2,1��&7@กก�"> FTA ,-),1�">;.� )/!(7)���1���,"2ก)�!(�$.�&�@ก"�# FTA -�N�7&��&7;<�(�ก�)�ก&!
!�ก@ก!�' N�@กก�/=��$.F<=���=-X;!75'����! 47/) �:� ��F;!(��ก����F"�#;<�-&! �!� !/&�O:1=7 >.�&7N�=��"!�� (�$ :� � !�&/(��"�#-�N��)��:� ��Fก�!>��-&! �!@ก@�!-ก �X$"�#�&/(�� FTA -�N�!��2ก/)012���27"�27
1&�!&'! ก���!- FTA "�#.�2wx2�=1/) ,"2,1��&7N���$02<!F!&'! @กก�%+ก947/) N�ก�ก=!1:�ก���ก&7@�!;!1�! =!��ก9�� 012U4$-&! >�$.�&� � !N�@กก��22�&/���-&! >�$.�&��- Demand Boom -กก/)� !N�@ก FTA -5#�� !<)!!&'! ก��&1 =!;@">����ก�� FTA 012;<�N� Policy Simulation @ก(77@>��� GTAP !)@$� ! Upper bound ���N�7/ก (�);!�/-� !@�=�-�(!/0!�-@$�#>ก/)!&'! ;!ก���$-=!N� FTA �/�@$�����>!+�O+��S@@&2(/1���-"�#,-)�2Q);!(77@>��� GTAP ��-� !���F��$ก�7;!ก��&1 =!;@1�/2 012U4$ ���-Q�<=��+ก"�#��;!�2ก� =!�� >�&Y@>� !����4=@�X�/7�Q),�ก&7 Policy Simulation @ก(77@>��� GTAP (�$�/�-�ก�%+ก9;!�&ก9X$1&�ก�)/ >.�&7����ก��"�#,1���!-N)!,�(��/�2)��$��21 45#�;<�� ! Lesson Learned >.�&7ก>.!1!0272�)�,�;!�!��
34
&��c� �ก��
� ก�����'�+�"
ก�-ก����)���$"% ก�$"�/�4X=<2F (�$-Q�!=j= O7&!4&M!-&! >�$.�&�(.)���$"%,"2, ก�%+ก9/=@&2��1ก���N�=�8&XvF-&! >�$.�&�;! j�X�&n��$<<!@�! lChina Tapioca Market Researchm, -�!�- 2550.
ก�-@�@ก����$./)���$"%, “ ��ก��� ���?�2!-@�!” , -ก��- 2548.
ก�-@�@ก����$./)���$"%, “�/-�57.!�ก�@�@��ก��� �����,"2ก&7��$"%�)�P” , ก�กy�- 2550.
ก�$"�/�4X=<2F, “0���ก�%+ก9N�ก�$"7"�#ก=1@กก��R1 ��ก����?�2!-@�!” .
,4�&< 7Q�4<&2%��, “ 1 ก�กy : �R1 ��ก����?�2!-@�!” 8.�ก���(.)���$"%,"2, 25 -ก��- 2548.
-Q�!=j= O7&!/=@&245#�ก�4&M!��$"%,"2, “0���ก�@&1">��ก��� ��,"2- .�&n�-�=ก ;!8�ก��! )�(�$0�@= �=ก F” , !� 8NQ� )� =!��"��5�(.)���$"%,"2 (�$ก�- )� �=-ก� )���ก, 2548.
-Q�!=j= O7&!/=@&245#�ก�4&M!��$"%,"2, “ก�/=��$.FN�ก�$"7���ก�@&1�&'���ก��� ���<�2�$/&!��ก"�#-��)��$77%�9nก=@” , !� >!&ก�!%�9nก=@�:� .ก��-.
!=4!jF 4&/4�%ก�,, 7"/=@�XF �5#�� l��ก��� ��� !��$02<!F�)� =!��ก9��.�5�,-) : ก�X�ก���-&! >�$.�&�82.�&�����ก��ก��� ���?�2!-@�!, �ก ���$ก�7ก� &--!<=��i=7&�=ก���$@>15�! j!��(.)���$"%,"2, 11 -ก��- 2551.
/&!"! �=-.$@&!"�F, �/- -�O;!ก�(�)��&!����:� .ก��-N&ก(<)26!(�$(<)(�6����,"2, /="2!=4!jF %�9n% ��F-.7&Xv=� (%�9n% ��Fj:�ก=@), �X$%�9n% ��F -./="2�&2j��-% ��F, 2549.
:ก=@ ./&#�.�� (�$ �� 1)!/��&ก9XF, “-&! >�$.�&� : 84;! 10 �A���.!�” , �2�!ก���$<:- X .���(ก�!1F7���Q- 0��(�-!�2XF /&!4:j"�# 18 j&!/�- 2534 /� 8.30-16.00 !.
:<1 1<��$กQ�, “ ��ก��� ���?�2!-@�!” , 7&!"+ก !�NQ�<)/2NQ�/)ก� 2!0272ก��=! j!��(.)���$"%,"2, -�!�- 2546.
�<!&! ก$,47Q�2F, lก����$./)���$"% : @ก4.:8��!=2- Q)"/=8�!=2-m, �X$%�9n% ��F -./="2�&2j��-% ��F, 2549.
�<!&! ก$,47Q�2F, “ก���$-=!N�ก�1>!=!�!�����ก��� ���?�2!ก&7"=%"�ก����$./)���$"% ���,"2” , �2�!�/-ก�/.!���&'�"�# 1 !��)� >!&ก�!ก��":! !&7 !:!ก�/=@&2, �X$%�9n% ��F -./="2�&2j��-% ��F, 15 4T98�- 2550.
35
� ก�����'� �กl'
Baldwin, Richard, lManaging the Noodle Bowl : The Fragility of East Asian Regionalismm, Discussion Paper Series, International Trade, No.5561, March 2006.
Bond, Eric W., Riezman, Raymond G.and Syropoulos, Constantinos, lA Strategic and Welfare Theoretic Analysis of Free Trade Areasm, Journal of International Economic 64 (2004), 1-27.
Cai, Kevin G., lThe ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement and East Asian Regional Groupingm, Contemporary Southeast Asia 25, no.3 (2003) : 387-404.
Dunn Jr. Robert M. and Mutti John H., International Economics, 6th Edition, 2004.
Kohpaiboon, Archanun, lDoes Export Creation of FTAs exist? : Evidence from Thai Manufacturing, Presented in Annual Conference (Symposium 2006) Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University, Bangkok, Thailand.
Kohpaiboon, Archanun, lDoes Export Creation of FTAs exist? : Evidence from Thailand, Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University, Bangkok, Thailand,2007.
Krishna, Pravin, lThe Economics of Preferential Trade Agreementsm, Brown University and NBER.
Krishna, Pravin, lPreferential Trade Agreementsm, Johns Hopkins University, Prepare for the conference organized at Columbia University on August 5 and 6, 2005 on the occasion of Professor Jagdish Bhagwati�s 70th birthday.
Lijun, Sheng, lChina-ASEAN Free Trade Area: Origins, Developments and Strategic Motivations, ISEAS Working Paper : International Politics & Security Issues Series No.1(2003).
Panagariya, Arvind and Duttagupta, Rupa, lPolitics of Free Trade Areas : Tariffs Versus Quotasm, Journal of International Economic 58 (2002), 413-427.
Saggi, Kamal and Yildiz, Halis Murat, lWelfare Effects of Preferential Trade Agreements under Optimal Tariffsm, April 2006.
36
Website ��X����
http://www.thaifta.com/ThaiFTA/Home/��"�� ก���ก'�/tabid/55/Default.aspx
��"�� ก���Cก'�) website �o��X ���)b����ก &ก���Cก'���o� �o +@�Bก�
- 0���ก�%+ก9N�ก�$"7@กก�@&1">�/-�ก��/)1�/2�/- &-4&!jF"�%�9nก=@"�#;ก��<=12=#��+'! (CER-FTA) ,"2-�� ����2 012 �X$%�9n% ��F @:���ก�XF�
- 0���ก�%+ก9/=��$.F�/-4���-���,"2;!ก�">����ก��ก��� �� (FTA ,"2-�� ����2) 012 0 �O=j� -&��=ก$- �X$%�9n% ��F @:���ก�XF�
- 0���ก�%+ก9N�ก�$"7(�$ก�ก>.!1")"�,"2�)�ก�@&1�&'���ก��� ���<�2�$/&!��ก 012%Q!2F7�=ก�/=<ก�(.)�@:���ก�XF-./="2�&2
- 0���ก�%+ก9N�ก�$"7"�#ก=1@กก��R1 ��ก����?�2!-@�! 012 �X$%�9n% ��F @:���ก�XF-./="2�&2
- 0���ก�/=@&2"�#��+ก9ก�/=��$.F@�@82;���/-�)/--5�.:�! )/!%�9nก=@"�#;ก��<=1�$./)�,"2-Y�#�:x! 012 %Q!2F%+ก9���(�$%+ก9�/-�)/--5�;!8Q-=8� (.)�-./="2�&2j��-% ��F
- ��ก��� ��,"2-��Q �/-� !,�,1�(�$��$02<!F�)���$"%,"2 012 >!&ก�-�=ก(�$(�?=�Rก ก�-@�@ก����$./)���$"%
- N�ก�$"7@กก�">�/-�ก��ก��� ��,"2- .�&n012 O7&!/=@&245#�ก�4&M!��$"%,"2 ("�1���F,�)
- 0���ก�%+ก9N�ก�$"7@กก�@&1">��ก��� ��,"2-EFTA 012 >!&ก2:0�� �<�2;�� �$/&!��กก�� (�$(���=ก ก�-@�@ก����$./)���$"%
- 0���ก�/=��$.F0�ก ก��22ก������,"282;����ก��� �� BIMSTEC (,-)��กi<5#�NQ�%+ก9)
- ก�%+ก9N�ก�$"7(�$ก�ก>.!1")"�,"2�)�ก�@&1�&'���ก��� ���$./)��?�2!ก&7 j�X�&nก.�� 012 O7&!/=@&2(�$;.��>��+ก9(.)�-./="2�&2j��-% ��F
- The Australian � Thailand Free Trade Agreement : Economic effect 012 Centre for International Economics
- A joint study investigating the benefits of a Closer Economic Partnership (CEP) agreement between Thailand and New Zealand
- A Feasibility Study on A Free Trade Agreement between India and Thailand by Dr. Ram Upendra Das, Dr. Somchai Ratanakomut and Dr. Sothitorn Mallikamas
https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/
http://www.ftamonitoring.org/
37
���D �ก 1
�����p&� ��ก���������(ก���������� �+�" c �l��!ก�" 2550
�� (ก%���(ก��������� �����p&� ��
�?�2!-@�! (,"2-@�!) - HS 07 (�$ 08 -�N�7&��&7;<� 1 �:��- 2546 - HS 01-08 (�$O)!.=!(�!"�,?1F (�$O)!.=!0��ก/?-=0��ก -�N�7&��&7;<� 1 -ก��- 2547 - =!���ก�= �=#-�189� 20 ก�กy�- 2548 .�5� O% �A 2553 - =!���)�!,./ �=#-�189��A 2555 .�5� O-5% �A 2561 - =!���)�!,./ Q� �=#-�189�;.�,-)ก=! 50% �A 2558
,"2-�� ����2 -�N�7&��&7;<�/&!"�# 1 -ก��- 2548 ,"2-!=/?�(�!1F -�N�7&��&7;<�/&!"�# 1 ก�กy�- 2548 ,"2-Y�#�:x! -�N�7&��&7;<�/&!"�# 1 4T%@=ก2! 2550 ,"2-��Q �1/) @$-�N�7&��&7;<� 1 -ก��- 2551 ,"2-�=!1�2 =!�� )/!(�ก 82 �2ก� -�N�7&��&7;<� 1 ก&!22! 2547 )/!
�2ก� =!��"�#.�5��2Q)�$./)�ก�@�@ ,"2-7.F�! 2ก�=กก�@�@ ,"2- .�&n�-�=ก .2:1@�@<&#/��/ ,"2-EFTA �2Q)�$./)�ก�@�@ BIMSTEC �2Q)�$./)�ก�@�@ �?�2!-�� ����2-!=/?�(�!1F �2Q)�$./)�ก�@�@ �?�2!-ก.��;�� �2Q)�$./)�ก�@�@ �?�2!-�=!1�2 �2Q)�$./)�ก�@�@ �?�2!-Y�#�:x! �2Q)�$./)�ก�@�@ �?�2!- .842:0�� �2Q)�$./)�ก�@�@
"�#- : Website ก�-@�@ก����$./)���$"% (http://www.thaifta.com/ThaiFTA/Portals/0/fta_prog6nov50.pdf )
38
���D �ก 2
ก���Cก'�D%ก���&�� (ก%�ก���������� �+�"
FTA ������� ��pX � �!Y�ก���Cก'� 1. 0���ก�%+ก9N�ก�$"7@กก�@&1">�/-�ก��/)1�/2�/- &-4&!jF"�%�9nก=@"�#;ก��<=12=#��+'! (CER-FTA) ,"2-�� ����2 012 �X$%�9n% ��F @:���ก�XF�
Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Version 5
2. 0���ก�%+ก9/=��$.F�/-4���-���,"2;!ก�">����ก��ก��� �� (FTA ,"2-�� ����2) 012 0 �O=j� -&��=ก$- �X$%�9n% ��F @:���ก�XF�
GTAP version 5
,"2-�� ����2
3. The Australian � Thailand Free Trade Agreement : Economic effect 012 Centre for International Economics
GTAP Version 5 (�$ APG-Cubed Model
,"2-!=/?�(�!1F A joint study investigating the benefits of a Closer Economic Partnership (CEP) agreement between Thailand and New Zealand
���-Q�":�=28Q-= กy.-2 (�$�5#�!,�"�ก���
�?�2!-@�! (,"2-@�!)
0���ก�%+ก9N�ก�$"7"�#ก=1@กก��R1 ��ก����?�2!-@�! 012 �X$%�9n% ��F @:���ก�XF-./="2�&2
(1) GTAP Version 5 (2) RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage) (3) BCG (Boston Consulting Group)
,"2-Y�#�:x! 0���ก�/=@&2"�#��+ก9ก�/=��$.F@�@82;���/-�)/--5�.:�! )/!%�9nก=@"�#;ก��<=1�$./)�,"2-Y�#�:x! 012 %Q!2F%+ก9���(�$%+ก9�/-�)/--5�;!8Q-=8� (.)�-./="2�&2j��-% ��F
GTAP
,"2-��Q ��ก��� ��,"2-��Q �/-� !,�,1�(�$��$02<!F�)���$"%,"2 012 >!&ก�-�=ก(�$(�?=�Rก ก�-@�@ก����$./)���$"%
���-Q�":�=28Q-= ���"&'� ����$"%
,"2- .�&n�-�=ก N�ก�$"7@กก�">�/-�ก��ก��� ��,"2- .�&n012 O7&!/=@&245#�ก�4&M!��$"%,"2 ("�1���F,�)
(1) GTAP (2) Gravity Model (3) TDRI/CGE Model
,"2-�=!1�2 A Feasibility Study on A Free Trade Agreement between India and Thailand by Dr. Ram Upendra Das, Dr. Somchai Ratanakomut and Dr. Sothitorn Mallikamas
GTAP
39
FTA ������� ��pX � �!Y�ก���Cก'� 0���ก�%+ก9N�ก�$"7(�$ก�ก>.!1")"�,"2�)�ก�@&1�&'���ก��� ���<�2�$/&!��ก 012%Q!2F7�=ก�/=<ก�(.)�@:���ก�XF-./="2�&2
(1) GTAP (2) Diamond Model (3) SWOT Analysis
,"2-EFTA
0���ก�%+ก9N�ก�$"7@กก�@&1">��ก��� ��,"2-EFTA >!&ก2:0�� �<�2;�� �$/&!��กก�� (�$(���=ก ก�-@�@ก����$./)���$"%
GTAP
BIMSTEC 0���ก�/=��$.F0�ก ก��22ก������,"282;����ก��� �� BIMSTEC
The Growth-share Matrix @ก BCG model
�?�2!-ก.��;�� ก�%+ก9N�ก�$"7(�$ก�ก>.!1")"�,"2�)�ก�@&1�&'���ก��� ���$./)��?�2!ก&7 j�X�&nก.�� 012 O7&!/=@&2(�$;.��>��+ก9(.)�-./="2�&2j��-% ��F
GTAP
"�#- : �:�@ก�!%+ก9"�#N2(4�);! Website ���ก�-@�@ก����$./)���$"%
40
���D �ก 3
�� (ก%���(ก��������� ��q�" r �� (ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement)
�?�2! (�$@�! ,1���!-;!ก��7�/-�ก���)/--5�"�%�9nก=@�?�2!-@�! �&'�(�)/&!"�# 4 4T%@=ก2! 2545 45#�� !(!/"� >.�&7ก�@&1�&'���ก��� ���?�2!@�! "�#���7��:-�5#��ก��� =!�� 7�=ก� ก���":! (�$�/-�)/--5�"�%�9nก=@�)�P (�$�)�-,1���!-;!�/-�ก��@�� �! ����$./)�ก&! ;!/&!"�# 29 4T%@=ก2! 2547 012(7)�ก��R1 ��� ! 2 )/! ,1�(ก)
1. ก��189� =!��7� )/!"&!"� (Early Harvest Program) "�#���7��:- =!��ก9��82;��4=ก&1%:�กก���!"�# 01-08 ( &�/F-�<�/=� !5'� &�/F (�$ )/!�5#!��� &�/F"�#7�=08�,1� �� N�=�8&XvF@ก &�/F ��!,-� 45<N&ก(�$N�,-�"�#7�=08�,1�) �/-"&'� =!��U4$ (Specific Products) "�#-�N�U4$ก&7��$"%"�#�ก��ก&! ��wx2")!&'! 012;.�@�!(�$�?�2!1=- 6 ��$"% ,1�(ก) 7�Q,! �=!01!�?�2 -�?�2 �R�=��R! F =��0��F (�$,"2 �=#-�189��$./)�ก&!;!/&!"�# 1 -ก��- 2547 (�$�189�.�5����2�$ 0 82;!/&!"�# 1 -ก��- 2549 (�$251.2:)!;.�ก&7�?�2!;.-) 4 ��$"% ,1�(ก) /�21!- ก&-4Q< �/ (�$4-) ;!�&��(�$�$2$/��=#-�189� (�)�����189�.�5����2�$ 0 82;!�A 2553
2. ก��189� =!��"&#/,� ?+#�(7)� =!��� ! 2 �2ก��5�
2.1 =!���ก�= (Normal Track) ก>.!1;.��1�&��89�"�# Q�ก/)���2�$ 20 ;.�.�5����2�$ 20 ;!/&!"�# 1 -ก��- 2548 )/!89�"�#-��&���#>ก/)���2�$ 20 ;.��1�&��89����-�>1&7 (�$�&��89���� =!��"&'�.-1@$�����1��.�5����2�$ 0 82;! 1 -ก��- 2553
2.2 =!���)�!,./ (Sensitive Track) @$-�,1�,-)ก=! 400 �2ก� (�$,-)ก=!���2�$ 10 ���-Q��)ก�!>�� ก>.!1;.��1�&��89�.�5����2�$ 20 ;!�A 2555 (�$-��&��89� :1"�2�2Q)"�#���2�$ 0-5 ;!�A 2561 )/! =!���)�!,./ Q� (Highly Sensitive Track) ,1��ก��;!75'����!"�#@$ก>.!1,-);.�-�ก=!���2�$ 40 .�5� 100 �2ก���� =!���)�!,./"&'�.-1 012�����5�ก.�&กกXvF"�#-�@>!/!�2ก�!��2ก/) (�$�1�&��89�.�5����2�$ 50 ;!�A 2558
"&'�!�' =!��"�#@$,1��&7 ="j=ก��189�82;����ก��� ���?�2!-@�! @$����,1�(.�)�ก>!=1��� =!���-กyกXvF"�#,1��ก��ก&! �5� =!��7���$8"����;<�/&�O:1=782;!��$"%"&'�.-1 (Wholly Obtained) )/! =!���5#! P ����-�-Q��)���/&�O:1=7"�#;<�82;!��$"%,-)�#>ก/)���2�$ 40 012 -�O!>-Q��)���/&�O:1=7@ก":ก��$"% -<=ก�/-ก&!,1� !�ก@ก!�' =!��7��2ก��@,1��&7���2ก/�!;.�-� Roo ��� =!��U4$(�)�$ =!�� (Product Specific Rules) 4���-ก&!!�' "&'� ��wx2,1�.6!<�7;.� -�O;<�-��ก��ก�3��45#�� !ก��ก�3���:� .ก��-82;!���(�)�$��$"%@กN��������ก��1&�ก�)/
41
>.�&7����ก���$./)�,"2-@�! !5#��@ก"&'� ��wx2.6!%&ก2841�!ก����$./)�ก&!;! =!��ก9��4=ก&1%:�กก� 07-08 (N&ก(�$N�,-�) @+�.6!<�7(�$�)/-��!-;!�/-�ก���)��189� =!��N&ก(�$N�,-��$./)�ก&! (Early Harvest Program) 012;.� =!��"&'� ��.-/1!�'-�)��189��$./)�ก&!ก)�!��$"%�?�2!�5#!P 012;.��1�&��89�;.�.�5����2�$ 0 82;!/&!"�# 1 �:��- 2546
�:� =!��"�#-�ก��189�82;������ก�� FTA �?�2!-@�!
�����ก�� �� �������� ����ก�������� ��������� ก������ก � ���������
Early Harvest Program (EHP) ��������� �-��� ��ก��� 07-08 ������������ 0% 1 �.!. 2546 Wholly Obtained
FTA ��6���-��� ��ก��� 01-08 ������������ 0% ��7� 3 �9 1 :.!. 2547 Wholly Obtained ��;�<���9 2547-2549 (2004-2006)
Normal Track Normal Track I FTA ��6���-��� @��!A �B�C�D��ก EHP ������������ 0% ��7� 5 �9 20 ก.!. 2548 - General Rule -- 40% ACFTA Content
(NT) (NT I) SL ,HSL <�P NTII ��;�<���9 2548-2553 (2005-2010) - Product Specific Rules (PSRs)
�W�X� 562 ��ก�
Normal Track II FTA ��6���-��� �:��ก�� 150 ��ก� :�X�Y�ก���������<ZZ����Xก�Z NT I -- Package I @��!A 472 ��ก� <���D��P�P�X�����������ก�ก NT I --- Only Rule 6 ��ก�
(NT II) ��ก����ก 2 �9 ���� 0% 7��9 2555 (2012) --- Alternative Rules 466 ��ก�
Sensitive List Sensitive List FTA ��6���-��� �:��ก�� 400 ��ก� ������������ 20% 7��9 �B 7 = �9 2555 (2012) :�_�7`A�:DB�X�� �B 20 ก.!.2548
(SL) (SL) C�D� 10% a��:b�!� <�P�C�D� 0-5% 7��9 �B 13 = �9 2561 (2018) -- Packag II @��!A 90 ��ก�
Highly Sensitive FTA ��6���-��� �W�aA<�P7��W�X� ������������ 50% 7��9 �B 10 = �9 2558 (2015) --- Only Rule 3 ��ก� List (HSL) ��;<�ก��ก���� HSL <�P�P�:���������กกc��A --- Alternative Rules 87 ��ก�
��A�:��ก�� 100 ��ก� :�_�7`A�:DB�X�� �B 1 :.!.2550
��<ก��
"�#- : ก�-@�@ก����$./)���$"% -ก��- 2551
42
���D �ก 4
D%ก�������
@กก� �7O- -�-"�#-�7"7"1�!ก�N�=� (�$ก���-&! >�$.�&�,"2 3 (.)� ��$ก�71�/2 (1) -�-ก���-&! >�$.�&� (2) -�-0���!NQ�N�=�-&! >�$.�&�8��$/&!��กU�2�.!5� (�$ (3) -�-0���!NQ�N�=�-&! >�$.�&�,"2 ( -<=ก��$ก�71�/20���!NQ�N�=� NQ� )���ก (�$ก9��ก�) (�$wก�>O-;.�N)! -�-0���!NQ�N�=�-&! >�$.�&�8��$/&!��กU�2�.!5� ;.� �7O-NQ���$ก�7ก�;!��$"%@�! �-"�#,�2�#2-<-0���!(��ก����F;!@�! 5-6 (.)� 012-��2�$��21"�# >�&Y;!ก� �7O- 1&�!�'
1. @�� �����`
;!�1��-&! >�$.�&�,"2,-)� !"�#�Q�@&ก;!��$"%@�! (�)NQ���$ก�7ก�422-��,��R1��1 (!5#��@กก�"�#��$"%;!ก�:)- .842:0���1ก��:1.!:! =!��ก9��82;!ก�:)- ">;.��1ก�!>��-&!�&1-61@ก,"2) 012-�ก�"1���!>��45#�,�(���Q��&'�(�)�A 2543 (�$-5#�!>-"1 �7��1 47/) ,1��&7ก���7�&7@กNQ�7�=08�1� ">;.�ก� )���ก�22�&/-ก�&'�(�)�A 2544 � !��!- (�$�22�&/�)�!5#��@!O+��S@@:7&!
�S@@:7&! @�!� !NQ�!>��-&! �!@ก,"2 ก5�7"&'�.-1 (-กก/)���2�$ 99) 012!>��,�45#�N�=�(��ก����F ?+#�@$;<�;! (1) �:� .ก��-�"!�� !5#��@ก-�ก����#2! Concept @กj&Y45< >.�&7�.� &�/F � ! Energy Substitute (2) �:� .ก��-�.� ( :�"�#N�=�@ก-&! >�$.�&�� !"�#!=2--ก;!Y�#�:x! (�$ก.�� �X$"�# ��/041 NQ�7�=08�,-)-&#!;@4�$�SY.�5#�� GMO ) (�$ (3) �:� .ก��-�5#!P
2. @�� ����
(.�)�N�=�(��ก����F"�# >�&Y���@�! �2Q)"�#-5��<=��) "�8��$/&!��กU�2�.!5����@�! �X$"�#45'!"�#4$��Qก-&! >�$.�&� @>� !����� !45'!"�#;!�����!<5'! ?+#�-�45'!"�#4$��QกU4$-5��.!!!=� -Xv�ก/� � (-���Qก7��;!-5���:X.-=�(�),-)-ก) @ก!&'! @$ )�@ก"��5�.!!!=� ,�-5��<=��) (�)��=-Xก�N�=�,-)4�2�4� !5#��@ก45'!"�#4$��Qก-�@>ก&1 N�N�=��)�,�)�#> !�ก@ก!�' ก���Qก��,�;!45'!"�#1�!;!���@�! @$">;.��)�! )�(4�-ก !5#��@ก0��� ���45'!n!82;!��$"%���@�!2&�,-)1�
45<"�# -�O;<�"1("!-&! �!,1� ,1�(ก) ��/041 (�$กก!'>�� (�)-&! >�$.�&� -����1�"�# >�&Y ,1�(ก)
43
o � !/&�O:1=7"�#-����#>-5#�"�27ก&7��/041
o !'> �2@กก�(���Q�!��2ก/)กก!'>��
� /&�O:1=7 : ��� �2 012���27"�27@กก�N�=�(��ก����F 1 �=��
-&! �! : !'> �2 = 2.5 � 2.8 : 5 �=��
��/041 : !'> �2 = 3 : 10 �=�� ">(��ก����F,1� (�)O�">�"!�� -��:X -7&�=,-).-$ -!&ก
0-�?F .�5�กก!'>�� : !'> �2 = 2.5-2.8 : 10 �=�� (�$กก� 2)�2 �22ก
o กก-&! �! ?+#�� !���.�5�"�#ก=1@กก�$7/!ก�N�=� -�O(���Q�� ! Biogas (�$!>-N�=�� !�:�2,1�
o @ก���1�.�)!�' ">;.��&n7�@�! ;.�ก� )� �=- ">;.�0���!�:)!;.-);!@�! .&!-;<�-&! �!� !/&�O:1=7.�&ก;!ก�$7/!ก�N�=�-ก
3. D%� � FTA (� ก����� ก� �����%�
NQ���$ก�7ก�":ก�2 .6!/) FTA -� )/!<)/2ก�$�:�!ก�;<�-&! �!;!@�!-ก�+'! ก�)/�5� ��-&! �!OQก012���27"�27ก&7��"�#���� �289�!>��) �2)�,�ก6�- ก��22�&/1&�ก�)/ )/!.!+#�ก=1@กก��22�&/�����1�� 4�2�(�),-)�Q�/) N���� FTA �=1 &1 )/!� !"),.�)
;!.�2�A"�#N)!- 0���!N�=�(��ก����F;!@�!�22�&/�2)��)�!5#�� ;!�Q�ก��22ก>�&�ก�N�=� (�$ก� ���0���!;.-) !�ก@ก!�' ;!�A!�' 2&��220���!N�=�(��ก����F"�#ก/� ���ก 5 0���! ">;.��1/) �!��-&! �!@$ 1; ,���ก�2)�!��2 5 �A !�ก@ก!�' �&n7�2&�;.�ก� )� �=- !5#��@ก� ! =!��"�#-��/- -�O;!ก���7 !���)���1(��ก����F,1�� !�2)�1� (�$� !/&�O:1=7"�#� !-=��ก&7 =#�(/1���--กก/)/&�O:1=7�&/�5#! ?+#��S@@&21�!ก� !&7 !:!����&n7� � !�S@@&2.�&ก"�#">;.�ก�7�=08�-&! �!;!@�!�22�&/�2)�ก/���/�
4. �#�B���
�Q)(�)�"�# >�&Y �5� /�21!- (�$�=!01!�?�2 012(�)�$��$"%-�@:1(�6�(�$@:1�)�! 1&�!�'
- /�21!- @:1(�6��5� -���<2(1!�=1ก&7@�!">;.���!":!�)�! )��#>ก/),"2 (�)ก� )���ก @$ )�,�"�")�5� Beihai (�$ Fangcheng ?+#�(�ก�)�@ก,"2"�# )�,�2&�")�5� Qingtao @+�� !ก�(7)���1ก&!�2)�<&1@! >.�&7@:1�)�!�5� 45'!"�#"�#.-$ - >.�&7��Qก-&! >�$.�&�-�@>ก&1ก/),"2 !5#��@ก45'!"�# )/!;.Y)� !45'!"�#<:)-!'> �&ก9X$1&�ก�)/ .-$ - >.�&7��Qก��/"�#-�-Q��)4=#--กก/)
44
- �=!01!�?�2 @:1(�6��5� -�"�#�&'��2Q);ก��@�!-กก/),"2 (�$-�45'!"�#"�#.-$ -ก&7ก���Qก-&! >�$.�&�-ก !�ก@ก!�' NQ���$ก�7ก�@�!@>!/!.!+#� ,1���,���":!��Qก-&! >�$.�&� (�$ )�ก�&7-2&�@�! @:1�)�!�5� ก�N�=� )/!;.Y)� !,�45#���7 !����1;!��$"%� !.�&ก (�$O+�(-�-�ก���":!@ก@�! (�)8Q-=��$"%����=!01!�?�2 )/!;.Y)� !ก$ @+���$ 7�SY.�5#��ก��! )��$./)�ก$ ?+#�� !ก�4=#-��!":!��ก"�.!+#�
!�ก@ก!�' >.�&7�/ ,-)-�"���ก Q)"$� �����+'!,�"�.!5� ���=1�)�ก&7@�! (.!!!=�) (�)�SY.�5� logistic 82;!��$"%@�!,-)1� ">;.���!":!�)�! )� Q� �X$"�#�-� NQ���$ก�7ก�,"2 ,���":! ;!45'!"�#<2(1!�=1ก&7,"2 (�)2&���Qก,-)-ก4�"�#@$��,���":!0���!(���Q�"�#!&#! (�)NQ���$ก�7ก�.6!/) ,1�-�0�ก ��,�7:ก7=ก
>.�&7,"2 -��/-,1����27@กก�"�#,"2-��/-� !-5��<�4;!ก�� !NQ���-&! >�$.�&�"�# >�&Y���0�ก �$77ก��! )�82;!��$"%-��/-��)���&/ (�$ก��! )�"��5�-��/-251.2:)! Q� !�ก@ก!�' @กก���"�#2/!!">;.�,"2-�ก�4&M!4&!j:F (�$��5#��@&ก��2)��)�!5#�� ��$ก�7ก&7 -��/- &-4&!jF"�ก��� (�$��$/&�=% ��F"�#1�ก&7@�! ">;.�@�!-��,"2;!�&ก9X$"�#� !-=��-กก/)��$"%�5#! ?+#�NQ���$ก�7ก�2&�.6!/) ,"2-�@:1(�6��5� 1) Shipment 2) )�-�7����)�/� 3) Supply -#> -� 4) Logistic & Facility 1&�!&'! ,"2@+�� !��$"%"�#-��/-4���-"�# :1 (�$.6!/) �S@@:7&! 45'!"�#4$��Qก�X$!�'4�2�4� (�)����422-4=#-N�N�=��)�,�);.�-ก�+'! ?+#�@ก��$ 7ก�XF 47/) (���"�#4&M!(��/ -�O4=#- yield ,1�,-)@>ก&1 !�ก@ก@$!>�$77ก�7�=.�@&1ก���-<)/2(��/ ก��$7=11! (4=#-45'!"�#.!�1=!) @$<)/2;.��ก-&! >�$.�&��=70�,1�1��+'!
5. ������ �D#����ก &ก��) �����&
ก���ก&7@�!2&�,-)!=#� �> &#�?5'�,-)ก=! 3 15�! 4�$/) -5#���N&!N/! @$-�0�ก N=1!&1 Q� ก�)/�5� O���N&!N/! (�$-�(!/0!�-�#>�� NQ�!>��@$��2ก�=ก LC .�5��> &#�?5'� .�5�,-) )��5�-�&7��� (�$O�NQ���;!,"2 �7O-,� �@$��@�@;.-) ;.�,1�;!��"�#�#>�� ?+#�NQ���;!,"2@>� !����2�- !5#��@ก NQ����!�5#!;!@�! )/!;.Y)@$� !<)!!�' (,-)�&ก9 &YY) (�$����ก� )� =!��45#�;.�,1��=!�6/"�# :1
6. ����@I ��XD#����ก &ก��������ก��%
- �S@@&282!�ก
1. !0272@�! �@-�ก���ก-��ก�45#��ก�3�� =!������,1�"&!"� 4�$�$772&���� ! &��-!=2- @+�-��/- �#2� ;!��$16!!�' (-�@$��!- FTA (��/ (�)2&�� !�/-ก&�/� 4�$/) 0���!"&'�.-1 � !�&n/= .ก=@ --�= O��&n7���&7���#2!"=%"�ก�;<�/&�O:1=7 � !��/041 45#� support ก�"> GMO .�5�;.���/@ �7�:X84-&! �!��-�/1 @$">;.�0���!":ก(.)�">�-!0272"&!"�
45
2. �/- �#2�;!�!�� �5� �X$!�'@�! -�ON�=���/041,1��A�$ 140 ��!�&! 45#�;<�;!ก�N�=�(��ก����F (�$�.� &�/F O�.ก��-&! �!(4��+'!�5#�2 P @!@Q�;@;.��-;<� GMO ;!��/041 45#� !&7 !:!�:� .ก��-;!��$"% ("!"�#@$4+#�4=�-&! �!!>��4�2��2)�1�2/ ?+#�ก�ก�$">1&�ก�)/@$">;.���/041���#>��-ก -�O(�)��&!ก&7-&! �!,1� 4�$NQ�N�=�2)�-�>!+�O+���� !�&/�&1 =!;@ (�S@@:7&! @�!2&�,-),1�!>/="2ก�1&�ก�)/-;<� (�)NQ���$ก�7ก�;!,"2<5#�/) @�!-��/-4���-) 1&�!&'! �&n7�,"2 �/� ��� -1:�;.�ก&7/&�O:1=7 012ก�N�&ก1&!;.�ก=10���!(���Q�N�=�8&XvF-&! >�$.�&� ,1�(ก) �"!�� (�$(��ก����F 45#�;.�ก9��ก� (�$NQ�N�=�-�"��5�ก 4�$":ก/&!!�'4+#�4=�@�!4�2��2)�1�2/
3. �)!'>-&!(�$�! )� �=1� !���2�$ 40 �����!":!ก�N�=�-&! >�$.�&� 1&�!&'! O�.กก=1/=กT�=ก�XF!'>-&! ">;.���!":! )/!!�'4=#-�+'! @$">;.�%&ก284;!ก�(�)��&!�1�� O+�(-�/) ,"2@$-�ก���;!�&ก9X$ FOB (�)NQ���$ก�7ก�;!@�! �&'��� CIF "�#����ก� (��/N�&ก8�$�)�$/��5�;.�,"2 012ก�ก1�� FOB 012"�#,"2,-)-��>!@�)���� 012U4$<)/�"�#N�N�=��� Q)��1-ก P
- �S@@&282;!
1. ก�@&1ก� =!��;!<)/�T1Qก�ก67ก�#2/ �5� -�.--��. @$-�-&! >�$.�&���ก Q)��1� !@>!/!-ก ">;.���/&�O:1=7�#> NQ���$ก�7ก�ก6,-)-��=!.�5� O!"�#"�#@$ Stock =!��,1�-ก�2)�"�#����ก� ;!8/$<)!!�' NQ���$ก�7ก�@$�)�(�)��&! �$72 =!�� 012ก� )���ก,�@�! ">;.��1�>!@�)���� 1&�!&'! O��&n��-@&1ก�45#�;.� -�Oก�$@2/&�O:1=7;.� -#> -� @$�)2�)�ก�@���! (�$@$-�N�;.���-� O�2�84-ก�+'! !�ก@ก!�' ;!�A 2553 ก�$"�/�ก9��-��3.-2 @$4=#-N�N�=�-&! >�$.�&�� ! 33 ��!�&! -5#�"�27ก&7�S@@:7&! 25 ��!�&! 2&�-��SY.ก�ก�$@:ก�&/���/&�O:1=7;!<)/�T1Qก�ก67ก�#2/-ก 1&�!&'! .ก@$">;.��3.-21&�ก�)/-���$ ="j=84 ����-�ก�7�=.�<)/�/�;!ก�ก67ก�#2/;.� -#> -����1"&'��A 1�ก/)ก�$@:ก�&/4�2�<)/�;1<)/�.!+#�� !4=%9
2. �&n7�">�$,�,-)/�(N! ���#2!�&n7� !0272���#2!1�/2 ">;.�1=!.!�,-)�6-"�# NQ���$ก�7ก�/�(N!�>7ก <)! ก�;<�(ก� 0?���F("!!'>-&!7!?=! 95 ;!�5#��!�' ,-)-��/-�57.!� ">;.�0���!�"!��"�#,1��&7�!:-&�=;.��R11>!=!�! 2&�,-) -�O1=!.!�,1��6-"�# @ก�/-,-)<&1@!;!!027282.�&�@ก���#2!�&n7� -5#�� !<)!!&'! 0�ก ;!ก� ���-Q��)4=#-;!��$"%;.�ก&7-&! >�$.�&� ก6!��2��
3. -Q��)4=#-"�#ก=1@ก0���!(���Q� ;!�Q��"!�� Q� :1 �����-�5� (�3�-&! (�$-&! �! �-�>1&7 1&�!&'! ;!<)/�"�#/&�O:1=7�1(��! @$ก=1ก�(�)��&!ก&!�$./)�0���!"&'� 3 ��$8" NQ�"�# �2���27�5� NQ�N�=�(�$NQ� )���ก-&! �! (�)ก9��ก�@$1� 4�$;!<)/�"�#/&�O:1=7��ก--ก (�)-�@>!/!NQ�;<�4=#-�+'! 2)�-">;.���-� O�2�84-ก�+'!