Is climate warming altering nutrient-oxygen dynamics in...

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31/08/2015 1 8/31/2015 Is climate warming altering nutrient- oxygen dynamics in Canadian Lake Trout lakes? Clare Nelligan, Adam Jeziorski, Kathleen M. Rühland, Andrew M. Paterson and John P. Smol IPS 2015

Transcript of Is climate warming altering nutrient-oxygen dynamics in...

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Is climate warming altering nutrient-oxygen dynamics in Canadian Lake

Trout lakes?

Clare Nelligan, Adam Jeziorski, Kathleen M. Rühland,

Andrew M. Paterson and John P. Smol

IPS 2015

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Lake Trout in Canada

• Widely distributed cold-water taxa

• Large bodied (30-80 cm in length) & late maturing (5-10 yrs)

• Valuable natural resource that is important to Canada’s recreational fisheries

http://www.hookhack.com/html/fom020113_laketrout.html

Lake Trout (Salvelinus namaycush)

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Ontario • Relatively rare – only 1% of Ontario lakes contain Lake Trout

(This represents 20-25% of all Lake Trout lakes worldwide)

• General decline in both sport fishery and habitat (OMNR 2006)

(OMNR 2006)

~2200/250,000 lakes in Ontario

http://wabunsun.com/posters

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Habitat Requirements

Lake Trout have narrow physiological tolerances for temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO)

Modified from Ficke et al. (2007).

Anoxic bottom

waters

Heated top waters Temperature: 6-15°C

DO: 9-12 mg/L

- provincial standard: 7mg/L, mortality below 3 mg/L

(Plumb and Blanchfield 2009)

Low oxygen

bottom waters

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Increased temperature

Anoxic water

Habitat Degradation Within Lakes

Lake Trout have narrow physiological tolerances for temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO)

Temperature: 6-15°C

DO: 9-12 mg/L

- provincial standard: 7mg/L, mortality below 3 mg/L

Modified from Ficke et al. (2007).

Decreased DO (Plumb and Blanchfield 2009)

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The Role of Total Phosphorus (TP) in Hypolimnetic Anoxia

1. Nutrients

Plant Growth

3. Decomposition depletes O2

2. Plant Growth

http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/science/edexcel/problems_in_environment/pollutionrev4.shtml

Suggests the influence of other factors

Management efforts currently centered on controlling TP However, depleted DO has been observed in lakes with stable or declining TP (Summers et al. 2012)

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Multiple Stressors Food Web Changes

Land-use Change

Shoreline Development

Invasive Species

Changing DOC

Lake Trout Habitat

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Multiple Stressors Food Web Changes

Land-use Change

Shoreline Development

Invasive Species

Changing DOC

Lake Trout Habitat

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Climate Change

(Wang et al. 2014)

2020 2050 2080

Impacts of warming are clearly observed across Ontario

Mean annual air temperature in Ontario has increased by ~1.4°C since the mid 1900s with further increases predicted over the next century

(Chiotti and Lavender 2008, McKenney et al. 2010 )

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Climate Change

Increased Air Temperature

Altered Stratification

Altered Overturn

Altered Seasonal DO

Depletion

It is important to understand how climate change may be altering the relationship between TP & DO

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1. How have diatom and chironomid assemblages changed over the past ~200 years in 3 Ontario Lake Trout lakes?

2. How have TP and DO changed?

3. How do control and impacted lakes differ?

4. Are the nature and timing of changes consistent?

Research Questions

Project Objective Investigate past TP-DO dynamics in 3 Ontario Lake Trout lakes with differing levels of shoreline development

(2 control lakes and 1 impacted lake)

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Lake Selection

Three monitored lakes were selected: - Two with minimal shoreline development - Harp (HP) and Red Chalk (RC) lakes - One with moderate development pressure - Eagle (EG) lake

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Methods

• Sediment cores collected from Harp, Red Chalk, and Eagle lakes

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Methods

• Sediment cores collected from Harp, Red Chalk, and Eagle lakes

• VRS-inferred chlorophyll-a determined for each core

http://mic.com/articles/91037/these-hideously-ugly-creatures-are-actually-helping-us-fight-climate-change

http://www.shieldsgardens.com/info/Glossary.html

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Methods

• Sediment cores collected from Harp, Red Chalk, and Eagle lakes

• VRS-inferred chlorophyll-a determined for each core

http://mic.com/articles/91037/these-hideously-ugly-creatures-are-actually-helping-us-fight-climate-change

http://www.shieldsgardens.com/info/Glossary.html

• Downcore diatom assessment to reconstruct TP has been completed

• Downcore chironomid assessment to reconstruct DO has been completed for Harp Lake

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REFERENCE LAKES Harp and Red Chalk

• Seven lakes in the south-central Ontario have been monitored continuously since the late-1970’s

• Both lakes have minimal shoreline development

• Considered reference lakes for this investigation

Harp Zmax: 37.5m, pH: 6.42, TP: 6.35 µg/L Number of Cottages: under 100

Red Chalk Zmax: 38 m, pH: 6.45, TP: 4.65 μg/L Number of Cottages: 10

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Regional Temperature Increases

Climate station located ~35 km from Harp and Red Chalk lakes MAAT increased by ~0.78°C since late-1880s

Reference Lake

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Reference Lakes Diatom Results

• Subtle changes are evident in both Harp and Red Chalk

– Increases in small, fast-growing planktonic taxa

– Decreases in benthic and heavily silicified tychoplanktonic taxa

Indicative of a climate signal – longer ice free season and increased thermal stability (Rühland et al. 2015)

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Harp Lake Diatom Results

Max Depth: 37.5 m, pH: 6.42 , TP: 6.35 µg/L (Yan et al. 2008)

2000

1950

1900

1850

1800

Reference Lake

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Red Chalk Diatom Results

Max Depth: 38 m, pH: 6.45, TP: 4.65 μg/L (Yan et al. 2008)

2000

1980

1960

1940

1920

Reference Lake

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DI-TP Results

DI-TP shows a slight decreasing trend Predicted TP values consistent with recent MOECC sampling

1980: 9.02 µg/L 2003: 6.35 µg/L 2014: 5.74 µg/L

Reference Lake

1980: 5.84 µg/L 2003: 4.65 µg/L 2014: 4.74 µg/L

DI-TP shows a slight decreasing trend

DI-TP shows no trend

HARP RED CHALK

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Harp Lake Chironomid Results

Max Depth: 37.5 m, pH: 6.42 , TP: 6.35 µg/L (Yan et al. 2008)

2013

2002

1981

1951

1906

1862

1828

Reference Lake

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Harp Lake VWHO Results

Predicted VWHO values indicate VWHO was historically variable around the provincial standard of 7mg/L

Max Depth: 37.5 m, pH: 6.42 , TP: 6.35 µg/L (Yan et al. 2008)

Note: Model is inferring end-of-summer VWHO concentrations

7

Reference Lake

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IMPACTED LAKE Eagle Lake

• Moderate shoreline development since the late 1800’s

• MVWHDO concentration below provincial standard of 7 mg/L

• Reclassified from a “threatened” to a “highly sensitive” Lake Trout lake in 2007

• Development subsequently restricted

Zmax: 31.1m pH: 7.9 TP: 9 μg/L Shoreline development as of 2002: -13 permanent residence - 234 seasonal residences -67 vacant lots -2 camps (~ 545 campers) -5% of shoreline is Crown land

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Eagle Lake Diatom Results

• Shift in diatom assemblage ~1985

– Decrease in Stephanodiscus minutulus

– Increase in small Cyclotella taxa (C. comensis, C. gordonensis, C. michiganiana)

• Increase in chlorophyll-a

Suggests that production is increasing independent of nutrients

Impacted Lake Impacted Lake

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Eagle Lake Diatom Results

Unknown Cyclotella taxon Max Depth: 31.1 m, pH: 8.09 , TP: 9 μg/L MOECC –2012 Monitoring

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1960

1950

1940

1920

Impacted Lake Impacted Lake

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Eagle Lake DI-TP Results

Decreasing DI-TP trend consistent with monitoring data Model may be underestimating historical TP

1975: 17.3 µg/L 1981: 9.8 µg/L 2003: 7.4 µg/L 2012: 9 µg/L

Max Depth: 31.1 m, pH: 8.09 , TP:9 μg/L MOECC – 2012 Monitoring

Impact Lake Impacted Lake Impacted Lake

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Regional Temperature Increases

Climate Station ~50 km from Eagle Lake

Warmed by ~2.5°C since the late-1880s

Impacted Lake

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Regional Temperature Increases

Increase in VRS-chla and Cyclotella taxa may be associated with warming

Recent DO declines more likely due to regional warming than shoreline development

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Conclusions

- Results for Harp and Red Chalk lakes show subtle changes in diatom assemblages over the last ~200 years

- DI-TP shows minimal changes in both lakes

- Suggests that TP increases are not responsible for any oxygen depletion in these systems

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Conclusions

-Results for Eagle Lake suggest decreasing TP and increasing overall production

-Increase in production may be due to lengthened growing season

- No evidence that TP is linked to the observed declines in hypolimentic oxygen

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Next Steps

1. Compare DI-TP with chironomid-inferred DO for Red Chalk and Eagle lakes

2. Apply models to Lake Trout lakes of interest across Ontario

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Acknowledgements • Roberto Quinlan, Kelli Charbonneau and Joseph Vaitekunas

• NSERC

• Environment Canada

• Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change

• Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry

• Federation of Ontario Cottagers’ Associations

• Lake of the Woods Water Sustainability Foundation

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Thank you, Questions? Key Literature Ficke, A. D., C. A. Myrick, and L. J. Hansen. 2007. Potential impacts of global climate

change on freshwater fisheries. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries 17:581-613. OMNR. 2006. Inland Ontario Lakes Designated for Lake Trout Management. 58 pp. Plumb, J. M., P. J. Blanchfield. 2009. Performance of temperature and dissolved oxygen

criteria to predict habitat use by lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 66:2011-2023.

Summers, J. C., K. M. Rühland, J. Kurek, R. Quinlan, A. M. Paterson, and J. P. Smol. 2012. Multiple stressor effects on water quality in Poplar Bay, Lake of the Woods, Canada: a midge-based assessment of hypolimnetic oxygen conditions over the last two centuries. Journal of Limnology 71:34-44.

Rühland, K., A. M. Paterson, and J. P. Smol. 2015. Lake diatom responses to warming: reviewing the evidence. Journal of Paleolimnology 35:110-123.

Yan, N. D., A. M. Paterson, K. M. Somers, and W. A. Scheider. 2008. An introduction to the Dorset special issue: transforming understanding of factors that regulate aquatic ecosystems on the southern Canadian Shield. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 65:781-785.