Is 6833 Analytics Assignment
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Transcript of Is 6833 Analytics Assignment
IS 6833ANALYTICS ASSIGNMENTYing Chen, Sri Murali, John Powell, Scott Weber
Homicide - National Trend Definition: Willful (non-negligent) killing of one human
being by another1
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0Murder and Non-negligent Manslaughter2
Rate per 100,000 inhab...
Our Approach
Study data by neighborhoods
Analyze historical homicide data and develop regression model
Evaluate independent variables correlated to homicide rates. Select variables to study
Select model for prediction
Draw conclusions about where murder will occur. Predict homicide rate for location
Regression Model Based on Historical Data Weighted Moving Average
.1 – 3 previous years.2 – 2 previous years.3 – previous year.4 – current year
This statistical analysis was used for the total number and an individual neighborhood basis
Microsoft Office Excel Worksheet
Regression Model - Prediction
Bade
n
Midtow
n
Hamilto
n Heig
hts
Columbu
s Squ
are
Walnut
Park
East
02468
1012
20112012 - Prediction
Regression Model Conclusion
We predict that 43/91 neighborhoods (47.25%) will be murder free.
Prediction1. Baden (11)2. Jeff Vanderlou (9)3. Midtown/Hamilton Heights/The Great
Ville/ Wells-Goodfellow (5)
JPEG image
Demographic Based Model Study Independent Variables Correlated to
Homicides Sources:
Report published Bureau of Justice Statistics in report Homicide Trends in the United States, 1980-2008, released in November 20113
Research Paper Structural Determinants of Homicide: The Big Three, published in Journal of Quantitative Criminology in March 20114
Article National Case-Control Study of Homicide Offending and Methamphetamine Use, published Journal of Interpersonal Violence, published in June 20095
Research paper Crime is the Problem: Homicide, Acquisitive Crime, and Economic Conditions, published in Journal of Quantitative Criminology in September 20096
Data Analysis Review Almost 90% of the offenders are males 65% of the offenders are in the 18-34 age
group Larger cities experienced higher number of
homicides More than 2/3rds of homicides were by guns Homicide rates correlated to other factors
Economic Conditions Educational Level Divorce Rate Drug Use
Educational Level
0.000 0.010 0.020 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.0700
0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
% <HS Diploma
Poverty Level
0.000 0.010 0.020 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.0700
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
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0.7Poverty and Homicide
St. Louis City Demographics
Analyzed data from 2010 census for census tracts in St. Louis city
Studied variables Number of males in age group 18-34 Educational level Marital Status Poverty level Median Home Price
St. Louis City Homicide Data
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
20406080
100120140160180
Annual Homicide Rate
St. Louis City - Educational Level
12021112106510761266106312571018105410720.00%
10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%
Males without high school diploma
Expressed as a percentage of male population
Divorce Rate
10641123125511641103101510621266127611130.00%
10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%
Male Divorce Rate
Number of men divorced compared to number of men married
Economic Conditions
1257 1212 1193 1274 1184 1062 1066 1054 1053 12020.00%
10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%
Poverty Level
Percentage of Population in Poverty
Census Tracts with High Likelihood
Males aged 18-34 as a percentage of population
Number of men without a high school diploma
Divorce Rate Among Men
Percentage of Population in poverty level
1193 1202 1064 1257
1171 1112 1123 1212
1186 1065 1255 1193
1270 1076 1164 1274
1276 1266 1103 1184
1184 1063 1015 1062
1256 1257 1062 1066
1191.02 1018 1266 1054
1045 1054 1276 1053
1268 1072 1113 1202
Prediction Based on Historical Data
Based on historical demographic information, homicide is more likely to occur in the neighborhood of Wells-Goodfellow, which is comprised of census tracts 1062 and 1063
Map of neighborhood9:JPEG Image
Conclusion Given the research on the variables we have
chosen to study are not up to date, we conclude that the best predictor of murder rates in neighborhoods in St. Louis city is the regression model.
We believe the variables are valid indicators of murder rates, but accurate conclusions cannot be drawn because the data is not current.
Baden, with 11 predicted murders in 2012, is the most dangerous neighborhood in the city.
Assumptions and Caveats
Demographic data obtained from 2010 census Census data doesn’t accurately portray current
demographics Data from St. Louis Metropolitan Police
Department assumed to include only homicides More recent numbers were assigned higher
weights Demographic data for correlation based on
single census tract
References 1: FBI definition:
http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2009/offenses/violent_crime/murder_homicide.html 2: Homicide Rates:
http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/tables/10tbl01.xls
3: BJS report and data: http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=2221 4: Structural Determinants of Homicide: The Big Three:
http://www.springerlink.com.ezproxy.umsl.edu/content/d484g87643485322/fulltext.html
5: National Case-Control Study of Homicide Offending and Methamphetamine use: http://jiv.sagepub.com.ezproxy.umsl.edu/content/24/6/911.full.pdf+html
6: Crime is the Problem: Homicide, Acquisitive Crime, and Economic Conditions: http://search.ebscohost.com.ezproxy.umsl.edu/login.aspx?direct=true&db=cja&AN=43757548&site=ehost-live
7: Census data: http://factfinder2.census.gov 8: St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department Crime Statistics:
http://www.slmpd.org/crime_stats.html 9: Map showing St. Louis City Neighborhoods and Census Tracts:
https://sites.google.com/a/slu.edu/montrejr/census